What are Futures?
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- Опубликовано: 17 окт 2019
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You've probably heard of the futures market before, or maybe you've seen future/forward prices mentioned in the news, but what are these numbers? Some magic number predicting future prices? Well...kind of! We'll discuss the topic in today's video.
Intro/Outro Music: www.bensound.com/royalty-free...
Episode Music:
Faster Does It by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license (creativecommons.org/licenses/...)
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DISCLAIMER:
This channel is for education purposes only and is not affiliated with any financial institution. Richard Coffin is not registered to provide investment advice and as such does not provide recommendations on The Plain Bagel - those looking for investment advice should seek out a registered professional. Richard is not responsible for investment actions taken by viewers.
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The Plain Bagel I enjoyed this. Also, I wanted to ask you, can you do a video on stock buybacks and how that affects share prices and how corporate boards are incentivized to do this than invest in infrastructure. It was illegal for a while till the 80s. You’ll probably have to go back a while, to the last depression.
Sophisticated form of gambling masquerading as economics for a lamean such as me.
Should've done a Ron Burgundy when you had the tickers on screen.
"I need MORE GRAPHICS!!!"
@@tekziotonzi3248 futures are real world REAL USE things in the markets of the PHYSICAL goods. My dad knew a farmer who lived near us, HUGE acres and he would buy futures contracts for his grain to lock in his prices so he knew exactly what his profits would be and had worked out his expenses in advance, often fertiliser and diesel. If his yield wasn't great, he'd buy some off another on if the local farmers to get the exact right tonnage.
Basically: The promise to buy something in the future with a certain price determined right now.
SangoProductions213 bingo buddy 👍
Or sell
@@user-ss6pf8ld2l ...That's implied by the word buy. You can't really buy something that isn't being sold.
SangoProductions213 that makes sense
Thanks, this helped me understand better.
This dude deserves so much more attention on RUclips. I've been subbed for along time. And his videos always bring value. And it's free!
Lever du i Norge? Jeg ikke, man jeg snakker en bit norsk
As a starting, the best advice I can offer is to conduct due diligence on each and every trading system, platform, educational course, account manager, and brokerage firm you are considering. And I'd recommend Yuril Zubong and the SQB AMAC strategy for anyone who is still trying to find an edge in the market. If you are still losing money then you need this strategy
Well he's at 217k now, doubled them. Hope you went long.
I've heard of the Swedish invester.
I used to watch Graham but I think he was only talking his opinions. No value.
I found this guy and his stuff is informative.
I’m drunk. He sounds smart. Gonna short gold tomorrow right?
lmfaoooo I hope you didn't end up doing that xD
Well he's drunk so probably can't remember or maybe went long for gold lol
@Joshua Lister I'll pay you for the price you shorted lol
@Joshua Lister geez didn't know your grandmother was the queen lol
9:05 "Hit the bell icon if you want notifications about future videos" ... lol
Free investment
I think a deeper dive into the math behind the finance would be very interesting.
+1
FV=PV(1+i)^n
After reading multiple articles and getting lost in the jargon, thanks for having this make sense in as simple and concise a way as possible.
Futures are something I wasted.
Am sad now.
You still have present. Don't squander that
Still sad or did you recover?
@@Lizini I didn't recover, I just learned to live with it - kinda like how my generation is coping with the world we're getting.
Incredible, thanks for the video. Been a sub for some time and I really appreciate your videos. It's really difficult to find a good quality video with an explanation coming form someone that knows his stuff. Thanks dude.
I rarely comment on videos, but this guy has explained it very well that I will make an exception here. You deserve more recognition and subscribers.
Always love seeing a plain bagel video pop up in my feed.
Helpful, thanks. Don't think I've seen anyone tackle futures on RUclips :)
Another great explanation video from my favourite business channel
Very detailed and specific, yet easy to follow even for a beginner like me. Love your videos!
Thank you sir! This video just cleared all of my doubts and questions out on the basis risk.
Impresive! I am preparing for the CFA Level 3 exam and this video just helped me put a lot of stuff into perspective.
Your videos are amazing, you know how to teach with just enough detail but not making it simplistic.
Thanks for the video, highly informative. Keep up the great work
all of your videos are fantastic, appreciate it!!
Even after 2 years I still came back to try & learn about these topics. Thank you!
Thanks man, got an exam on the topic tomorrow you Saved me an hour
Great presentation, as always, Richard! :)
Interesting topic and thanks for sharing this!👍
This was extremely helpful and highly accessible! Thank you so much!
Thanks for making this video. I work doing oil hedging using futures on a daily basis so it's cool to see you guys cover what I do.
Thank yiu for this simple explanation!!! Never understood this until just now
Thanks for sharing good info on future. Can you do a video on oil futures & how to read oil futures chart?
Finally a high quality explanation, thank you
keep up the good work nd keep making these informative videos....appreciate it mate :)
Love this. Short and easy to follow. When explained this way it expands your knowledge further more easily. 🙏 I am an OAP woman getting to grips with this 😂
Thank you for the detailed explanation
Thank you for the information 😃, very useful for the foundation information for Futures. 💎⭐️
Richard, thank you for your hard work and educational content that you provide. This channel is the only "Plain Bagel" I've come across so far and your narration style as well as information is invaluable.
Your channel can be easily compared to TheFutur (business of design), Like Stories of Old (philosophy), or PiXimperfect (photoshop) by the depth of your content.
Should you care about the overhyped useless channels like Tai Lopez's one, please, focus on what you do best and you'll beat them easily.
Like you said, investors can't wait for 10 years to ripe the fruits and quit holding their assets for 4 years only.
Keep it up!
Great video. Would you also explain what is macroprudential policy tools in your future videos. Thanks.
Bagel many thanks. Two requests can you cover 1) how to trade Futures perhaps using a live/demo trade and 2) cover LEAPS how to trade those also, are they accessible to retail traders and if so on comparable terms to professional traders etc... Thanks Mr Bagel!
you're the first youtuber who i will turn on the notification bell for
Can you cover Mini Futures, Turbo Warrants, Tracker and Leverage Certificates
Omg yes
Very well explained👍🏻
you sir should definitely open a channel with deep explanations of these concepts :0
Thank you so much for your content. I really learn a lot here.
Thanks for the video! I have the following question, could you give me an example for a deal on the commodity market in the future and one for the spot market?
Reading books about Futures and having a headache already coz I can't understand. Now you explained it in just 10 minutes. Amazing! Thank you!
First time I listened to a vid on futures felt like I was watching a bit of Greek mixed with English. Wanted to cry. Let's see now.
Just watched, hallelujah! I now understand futures! Thank you!!!!!!!!!!!!
i never watch so many videos from a single channel. thank you mate!! now i am studying finance and your videos helps me a LOT!
I was really here when this channel started. I'm soo happy to see this lol
FANTASTIC EXPLANATION
Congrats on teaming up with Ted-ed on their latest video, love your stuff :D
I noticed that too
THNAKS ALOT
Do you need to know the finer details on a futures contract before you bid on it?
now i finally know how the one guy in squid game got reallly broke really fast
Love your channel :)
Good video. But you should have gone into more detail about the daily mark-to-market.
Thank you!
nice video! Could you do a video explaining how certain types of risks, like an executive involved in a scandal or a company doing something stupid, can affect a stock's price? I know you went over it in 'Understanding Investment Uncertainty', but it was brief. I want to know why certain things (that aren't so obvious) drives the stock price up or down. Thanks!
It's called tail risk. When a black swan event happens, it increases the implied volatility of the stock. This increased volatility drives wide swings in both directions.
Thanks for this
Excellent. I have an inside tip that owing to a poor harvest the frozen concentrated orange market is going to fly.
i thought the price say on a crude oil Depth of Market Chart was the actual price of oil at that time? Is it just the price on the contract then?
This video is so good. THANK YOU!
On my channel I have videos showing how I trade futures live. Your support would be greatly appreciated
Very good!
Great explanation thanks:)
On my channel I have videos showing how I trade futures live. Your support would be greatly appreciated
The fact that futures deal with prices in the future that nobody is 100 percent sure because of a lot of elements driving a price of an asset is in itself a risk already, adding a component of being able to lever a future position makes one party be tempted to borrow that money so he or she can magnify the gain he or she is hoping to get and when things don't happen to wat hey expect, it also magnifies their losses on their equity or margin. If you put your fate on Future + Leverage you are pretty much risking it all
Love how the Baker, farmer and video guy are all the same person
THANK YOU
Do a video on the complicated stuff, with formulas. "Could fill a video on its own" so ...make it plz?
Really good and clearly explained
On my channel I have videos showing how I trade futures live. Your support would be greatly appreciated
This Guy knows what he's talking about! Good sheet 😎
You can have a spot price for a given point in the future, which is what implied volatility dictates at a given period in time, correct? Does it work for commodities and bonds the exact same?
5:10 What's the difference between a cash-settled future and a contract for difference?
Thank you
so one of function is we can hedge our speculative asset such as crypto to the futures contract that has negative correlation within crypto so we hedged against the risk of the crypto. is it the case?
Great video!
Nice shirt bro!
How does it work when the contract expires? There are several options , right? Rollover to the next or actually take the commodity if you are long? Do you mind explaining please?
This guy is the best !
Because of you I am learning and loving finances so much! I will probably study finances instead of computer science in university!
Study both
Fintech dudes make bank, do both.
k Koko study mathematics, take all statistics and optimization courses, then make a master in financial engineering or mathematical finance
Why not both? I'm a finance major with a computer science minor and I love it, especially knowing that both things can work together so well in the real world.
Here's something I don't understand about futures that I hope somebody can answer me. When stocks are bought and sold, every share that is bought comes out of the account of the seller and goes to the account of the buyer. But in the futures market, for every contract that is bought there must be a corresponding seller, and both long and short positions must be held either until the contract expires, or until both sides net out their positions. This means that in every big market move (where due to leverage "big" could be only 1% on the underlying) there is of necessity the fact that half the contracts in the market are losers. And these losses can be spread out a bit by the losers netting their transactions during the move, but this only shifts part of the losses to somebody else. Who is willingly taking these positions? In some markets like commodities there are producers and consumers of the underlying which imply some natural supply and demand, but in something like index futures why does it seem there is an inexhaustible supply of traders willing to take a loss? Are there really a lot of people constantly hedging their portfolios? Are new futures traders starting out as fast as existing unlucky ones are getting washed out of the market? Are there market makers who can somehow effectively arbitrage between the spot market and the futures market so as to effectively provide liquidity to either side of the transaction without delta risk even when it would seem that a simple buyer or seller would be losing money? Is there some other explanation?
If you've ever traded futures on a volatile day, or during periods of low volume, you may have encouraged "slippage", where your entry or exit actually slips past your target price. This is because for you to sell a contract, someone has to be willing to buy it, and if there isn't enough buying volume at your sell price, it will slip past it until a buyer is found. Your order can also be rejected if it cannot be filled.
As for why someone would be willing to buy on a downtrend or sell during a pump: Everyone wants to buy the dip, and no one can perfectly time the exact bottom (or top) of a move. And for the most part, if you have the margin required to survive drawdown, such as a hedge fund, you can wait it out and exit in profit eventually.
That being said, there absolutely are days where price runs away; Tuesday and Wednesday this week when Powell talked to Senate committees, just before the broadcast started there were huge sell offs on the ES with very little resistance from buyers to slow it down. No one wants to jump in front of a moving train. Trying to find a buyer during that move would have likely resulted in massive slippage, though in this case that would have been beneficial to someone who shorted.
thank you. very well explained. that baker is making very plain bagels
Tkx for these ultraclear explanations:). I often hear the words short and long on financial channels. Do these words necessarily refer to futures, or do they sometimes apply to corporate shares?
They apply to both! You can long (buy) or short (sell now without initially having a position to sell) both stocks and futures.
@@ThePlainBagel TY!
Unrelated to this video, but what do you think of Share Repurchasing, on the whole? For example, doing a little digging I determined that Boeing spent something like $15Bn between 2013 and 2019 on share repurchasing, and only $3Bn on developing the troubled 737 Max airplane. The incentive structures at the executive level seem troubling.
So is it like the same thing as spot trading. Can I just place a trade directly off of MT4/5, tradingview, ninjatrader ECT. after doing my fundamental and technical analysis.
Great video as usual. I am wondering in the future long position what if instead of selling at the market price I hold onto the share. Would it not be a wise idea when the market price for the share has fallen and selling it immediately nets me a loss?
You need to have an HORIZON when investing, especially in commodities and assets with prices that fluctuate a lot.
The duration of the contract is that horizon. If you plan to hold onto the shares, then you should probably get a "longer" future contract.
If you want certainty (and avoid the volatility) for you purchases/sales down the line, get into futures contracts; since they can work kinda like a fixed-rate mortgage in times of uncertainty. Otherwise, just dollar cost average your purchases/sales over time.
Is the derivative value differential over time differential?
Hey plain bagel, Love your videos! What are some of your favorite books that helped you learn this knowledge?
You're talking to a bagel
@@SeptemRoptem LOL
that was very informative thank you f
On my channel I have videos showing how I trade futures live. Your support would be greatly appreciated
BEST!!!
If there a large negative interest rates it will turn these upside down as cost to hold will be a benefit?
So is it basically like short stocks?Or the opposite?
Can you please explain why higer gdp per capita doesn't mean higher salaries and what influences salaries in different countries?
Should've done a Ron Burgundy when you had the tickers on screen.
"I need MORE GRAPHICS!!!"
Hard luck! for someone who made a future on oil, this year
I wish he would've explianed the closing of the positions more thoroughly. I mean you don't actually buy it sell at the spot price afterwards...the broker handles this part right? I'd really like for someone to explain the logistics that actually go one behind the scenes.
This is legit my new favorite channel. I'm a 25 year old man for fucks sake. I'm far too late learning this stuff.
I actually got into investing backwards. I started out by shorting naked futures options! 😋😎
>>>>
best youtuber ever
Hi there, many people these days
are analyzing like about the economy,
in stock market, their own future,
other peoples minds. Expecting
that their analyzed will happen.
Many it turned out didn’t happen.
underrated channel
Hi. I really like and appreciate your videos. Can you make a few on internacional trade? If not, can anyone recommend me a similar changes that makes that kind of videos? Thanks
I like how this lad coordinated his glasses, shirt, and pants.
Can you do a video on hedging?
Is there any correlation between the average Future price of a commodity on a certain date and the actual price of the commodity on that date? What's the average error rate of this future price guessing? How do the efficient / non-efficient market hypnosis interact with this average error rate?
Just wondering how successful the mass wisdom of guessing the market is?
How far ahead of the strike date are you talking about? As time => strike date, the difference tends to 0.
@@ykl1277 well yea, that's also obviously a factor. I'd expect error to strike time would be an inverse exponential curve. I wonder if there are any consistent local discrepancies to this curve... I would like to look at 1 year, 3 years, 5 years and 10 years like we do with bonds
To gain an advanced understanding of how the smart money players move money around the market you need to get the sqb amac course immediately. This strategy will show you when big players enter and where they have more orders placed. This is a smart money strategy that you don't want to miss