I don’t care how people say drop rates actually work; you cannot convince me that the game doesn’t know exactly what I want to drop, and then proceeds to not give it to me for days on end.
@dredgen0268 that's exactly what it does I took a break farming character pieces n went for weapons only to get multiple 6% ulti character pieces dropped and little to no weapon pieces
Yeah I quit target farming anything and just started doing random shit I quit caring I can't even get a ultimate at 160 hours or a stupid ultimate weapon of doing 40 runs here 40 runs there for b.p getting all the other parts crafted then can't get the BP to drop. Only gives me what I already have and don't want. It's a total joke. Feels worse somehow after the update
It’s just weird cause in game “dice roll” is always 3-5x longer than if I actually did a good dice roll IRL. I get probability but when most to everybody is having to do something more than 20 times I believe something is off. Nexon is known for having bs rates
I also feel like thus is true. I get multiple drops that are rarer than the one I want before I get what I need. Had that happen so often now. And the one time i need the 32% drop I don't get it in 3 runs. And I always use the acces info tab to go there so the game knows what I want.
Yep character drops are rigged but it seems the other things aren't but it's definitely suspicious that every single character part for every single character doesn't seem to have the same drop rate as displayed frustrated enough to just buy the character in the shop
It's not RNG. It's RNG filtered through Nixon's patented loot drop system. Look up the parent, or read about it. Then come back and see if you still wanna talk about RNG.
Regular cash shop buyers appear to be getting better RNG/Drop rates compared to non buyers. Pure speculation but we think there is a flag or some type of modifer that cash shop buyers get for a certain duration after a purchase.
I'm just one case.... friend bought luna, ult bunny, and yujin. Took 70 tries for ult viessa spiral. Me, with only the battle pass, done with every descendant... max 35 tries on 4 parts. Good luck to you.
Omg, more people need to see this!!!! 😭 this is what I've been trying to explain, but they just dont get it 😭 they get mad because they dont understand the mathmatics behind it all Youre the man! Thank you for putting this out there. Hopefully, within time, more people will see this and understand instead of jumping immediately. Keep it up!!!
You can understand the math behind it and still be mad at it since it sure the hell doesnt feel like 20% and they got sued before for lying about the drop rates.
@OverlyCriticalAnime that was for a different game with a different dev team and it involved real money via gacha. That's the only reason action was taken. This is a completely separate dev team and the drop rates have been proven fair through multiple tests
@@kennymenorias827 pretty much. The law of large numbers always applies to situations like this. So over 1000 iterations. The dorp rate is likely to reach the set 20% with only a slight margin of error. But in smaller samples (10 to 20 runs) you can have a lot if variance
I still think they are so frustrating , I’ve spent almost 20 tries trying to get the Sharon piece and in that time I also got four transcendent mod drops which have a 1.5% chance. Bullshit. How. FOUR. I’ve been playing MMO‘s all of my life and 20% in this game feels horrible compared to 20% in a game where I have to enhance my gear with a 80% fail rate
Yup. That's how RNG works 😁👍. It's simple luck and chance and once you know it. You just relax and enjoy the game. When the dice favour you, you get what you need haha
Yeah just finished the regular Blair grind yesterday and goddam it took like 3 or 4 hrs for the last piece lol...idk how many runs that was, worse it was the dungeon with the dumb jumping puzzle lol...where for some reason the character doesn't grab the ledge or more annoying the double jump just doesn't work randomly. Even with lvl 100 gear and barely breaking my shield I still wanted to throw my controller at the screen lol.
coming from a lot of gacha i use this same system where in instead of 10 i grind 20 amorphius materials before opening because it brings me that feeling of pulling 100x on every gacha game that i play and i feel like my odds are higher opening 20 but ya it really doesnt work everytime but that is my sweet spot and i dont feel bad because getting catalyst is more than enough and i dont expect the blueprint much rather i more or less hope i get a few catalyst whilst praying i get the blueprint at the same time. TLDR playing gbf helped me cope on the grind because the amount of times i had to redo a single raid for a single weapon drop is far worse then the grind on this game
Thanks Robot! As someone who’s getting ready to beat the game this is going to help me down the road with farming for characters and mods for endgame builds!
How his him talking shit about random dice going to help you do anything is he going to farm for you ? is he going to beat everything for you ? No so he actually didn't do shit yet idiots like you think he did 😂
Feel that you are not getting the one think you want? Its called Dynamic RNG based on player activity. They have done it in maple story They likely are doing it now
I know the struggle is real. I was/ have been farming the blue beetle blue print for 3 days at 15 runs a day. My buddie runs it oance on the dead bride and gets right off the rip. I was so disappointed. Told him to keep that info to himself.
Long story short, Be Grateful, and enjoy what you've gotten, be it a 38% chance or a 5% chance item, take nothing for granted in games like this, the numbers are pretty much useless to the user, just there to make you mad. All you have to know is that any Ultimate Gley part is Very Rare. Freyna part is uncommon and Nazeistra's Devotion is a plague. 😂thanks for the vid!
I would hardly say the numbers are useless to the user 🤣🤣, but I do agree that you should always be grateful for whatever drop you get. For me, the numbers help me guesstimate the effort needed
@@RealAsianRobot true true But for me angry peasant it's better to just say Very Rare, Rare, Uncommon or Common like in Warframe for example. Works better for me. When I see numbers I can't help but math how many attempts I should need for that... And as we learned, that's pretty much useless, to guess how many attempts
I was able to farm ult valby on the morning of release in about 2.5 hours. Luna on the other hand I still haven’t completed. 2 pieces finally dropped for Luna yesterday
One think that has proven over countless times for me to work is whenever I don’t get what I want within two or three try’s. I hold start and leave the game load back up and usually get it within two or three more try’s. Works flawlessly. Another thing is when you’re grinding for anamorphous materials at the vulgus strategic outposts. (Only works if others are there) let them do the bunch of the work until the last ish second so you can get a few shots on the boss and almost every time I’ve gotten the material from that. Weird but it works so good. Waaay higher chance than regular degular. Give it a shot!
Brilliant video this was well needed for players that aren't math nerds lol. No but honestly i hope this clears up some of the misinformation spreading about the drop rates❤
So explain to me then when it is telling me 20% and I have to run the same stupid boss 25 times. I understand it's not run five times and I will get it but at this point I'm convinced to just take 10% off the odds when I see it. If it's telling me 15 it will be more like a 5 and 20 becomes 10.
It's a dice roll. You are rolling a dice between 1 to 5. If you happen to roll a 5 40 times and never any other number, you still will not get the drop. You could go for an entire 40 runs and still not get the 20% drop. A 1 in 5 chance, does not mean that you will get it even after 200 runs, since there is no pity system here and every drop is raw RNG. However, that's how RNG works. When you finish the mission, you roll the dice and the dice has a 20% probability of giving you the loot you want. It does not mean you will have any sort of luck running the mission a certain number of times to get something. It's why many people come up with "personal luck" systems. These are not rooted in statistics or fact but are based on personal experience. Example: if you watch my streams I have a rule of 10. I gather 10 Amorphous before rolling. Even then, I may not get the drop I want, but my chances always feel best with 10. This is not based on math, but gut feeling. So if you feel like taking 10% off the odds based on your personal luck. Go ahead. The statistics themselves are fair, but you should adjust your methodologies based on your own results.
@sezax2120 a lot of people have been feeling this way, but honest to god, it's just how luck and chance works. I have had no trouble getting everything I need in game with a full f2p grind. Only thing I buy are skins :/. Some grinds have been frustrating, but that's literally how luck and chance works. Sometimes it may feel off, but that's just how human emotional bias works. I usually just take my emotions out of the equation and boom eventually I get my drop and move on
It doesn't make me suspicious when I don't get a 32% drop in 5 tries. What makes me suspicious is when I commonly get the wrong 32% drop 5 times in a row. That's like a 0.3% chance of happening, but it happens to me all the time
@@none_o_ur_bidnis no, it's statistics. They've said no control is happening, and unless actual proof to the contrary comes out, this just sounds like you just happened to be the player this particular rng spread happened to. Here's hoping you get the drop you want soon :)
@@MechaMan2012 the odds of it happening as much as it does to as many people as it does is astronomical. If you actually understood statistics you would know that something is off.
There's also a pool rewards. If you think we got random number generated from 1 to 100 to represent the reward then you've been mistaken. There' s a reason why you can do 100 runs and not getting any of the 3% reward.
@brodull1142 there are various pools for mission drops, but Amorphous only has 1 pool. If you check the numbers, it always adds up to 100%. So you're just doing a single loot roll. Hope this helps
The thing with probability is that when each item in an amorphous material have a set chance to drop, there should be instances where none of the items roll a 1 and you get nothing. But there's is a factor that is taken into account in this game that guarantees that you get one of the item.
@RAYZOR-Xx I think you might be misunderstanding. All the drops in the Amorphous add up to a total of 100%. For Amorphous, the game just rolls a 100 sided die. It will come up with a number from 1 to 100 and depending on the number you come up, you will get 1 of the 5 items listed. For example: Numbers 1 to 6 (equating to 6% chance out of 100) may be assigned to the Energy Activator Blueprint. So if you happen to roll a 5 you get the blueprint. The other numbers will then correspond to other drops in accordance with their probability.
@@RealAsianRobot I never really noticed that they add up to 100% but if that's the case then yes one item will be guaranteed to drop due to probability.
@@RealAsianRobot I mixed it up with mission rewards because there's been runs I've done where after completing the mission I was only rewarded with gold and nothing else.
Im good at Maths and have a decent grasp of statistics. It shouldnt take 47 runs to get one of freynas items (like it did for me) it took me 20 tries to get valbys blueprint (at 38% chance). I dont think this game is totally honest. I got 5 transcendent modules trying to get freynas piece so it wasnt actually that frustrating. Good job im loving the game.
That's the point of the dice roll. It's random. You could roll and get a 3% activator piece but fail to get a 38% chance loot 🤣🤣. That's the point of RNG. It's random. So pray to the gods and pray your luck holds
Each successive run is unrelated to each other. The idea that you "should" get an item after X number of runs is a sentiment from a statistical average, but, without a pity system, you aren't guaranteed anything. Some could get a good roll and get it first try. Some could be on the other end of the spread and just about never get it. I think what's happening here is that, since the game is SO full of RNG, and it takes so long to do one roll, comparitively speaking, a vocal minority is hitting their respective "RNG walls" and crying shenanigans, when in reality that's just how RNG works.
dont mention guaranteed when talking about RNG there is no such thing as it should take me this long when you are rolling a dice that can miss roll even after doing it 100x or you can get lucky and hit the roll in your first try 10% doesnt mean 10 tries nor 20% doesnt mean 5 tries it just means you have 1/10 to hit the item you want and it doesnt increase nor decrease every amorphius rather everytime you open one you get that same roll and the only thing you can do is PRAY
That was for Gacha and on a totally different game with a different dev team. Rates are completely fine in this game. I cannot counter your beliefs, but based on our tests, we have seen the drop rates work well.
Ok now that's how it's spose to work BUT nexon has in the past posted and shown what it was but it wasn't even in game meaning just cause we know and understand it doesn't mean nexon programed it that way
@gamingwithwolves5615 Up to you whether you trust them. Nexon Korea has proven at every turn to be incredibly based and their drop rates are accurate to the best of my knowledge that being said, I am not here to change anyone's beliefs. I have full faith in the current rates and they appear accurate overall.
Check out binomial probability. If you wanted to know how many attempts would be needed to have a 90% chance of success for a 10% drop rate item then you can do: log(0.1) / log(0.9). That equals 21.85 attempts, or 22 when rounded up. If you do the same for 99% chance of success then you end up with 229.10 attempts. Alternatively, you can ask what the probability is of you not getting the drop with a 10% drop chance in x number of tries. That would be 1 - 0.1 = 0.9, which is the chance of not getting the drop. Then you put that to the power of the number of attempts. e.g.: 0.9 ^ 22 = 0.0985 which is a 9.9% chance that you don't get the drop in 22 attempts, or put differently its a 90.1% chance that you get the drop in 25 attempts. Hope it helps.
@@RealAsianRobot Just thought I would share in case anyone was interested. Its definitely not a guarantee but I thought it could be useful because it shows if you want a 90% chance of success its 22 odd attempts, which is quite a lot more than most people would assume is needed given a 10% drop rate.
@ChilledUnskilled oh absolutely haha. I'm up to 30+ runs and haven't gotten another. So it do be like that sometimes. I used to use this stuff for lootboxes haha
@ChilledUnskilled oh absolutely haha. I'm up to 30+ runs and haven't gotten another. So it do be like that sometimes. I used to use this stuff for lootboxes haha
@@RealAsianRobot I've been away for 2 weeks so about to pickup farming again. Got my Enzo for vaults and now going for activators and catalysts. Will try to be picky about which amorphous materials I use so I can get other drops that might be nice along the way. Here's hoping the 2 week break has let my RNG pile up in my favour, haha
When I want the lesser drop, the game gives me tons of the weapon blue prints. But when im looking for the gun blue prints it will literally give me the 6% drops before them.
Yup. This is a personal bias called the "desire sensor". People believe the greatest never gives you what you are looking for. It's honestly just random luck 🤣🤣 but you feel it more when you're hunting for one particular thing
That's a personal issue, but the statistics are as shown and are indeed fair. If you test in a group of friends, you'll see the randomness of results between a large enough group (I.e. mine)
*(Without a pity system) there is one unlucky person out there that has done it a 100 times and haven’t gotten the roll they wanted* 😔 we need a pity system!
Pity systems are for gacha games where real money is spent. Yes, there COULD be 1 unlucky person who never gets a drop after 100 runs, but they're already considering a pity system of some sort.
For people wondering Programmer here! It’s very easy to tell what pieces you want! 😈 Yes, the game will cheat us to get more play time out of it… Facts of life!
How ever if your really good at the game we may give you what you want only to stick you with noobs when it comes to bosses! 💅🏽 sorry not sorry! If you don’t believe me Look up google analytics for video games! They have all the secrets in there… Bullet magnetism, High rank vs. low rank, Low rank vs. bots! You name it, it’s in there!!!
Please prove this statement. I will be waiting to hear it. Because quite frankly, I've gotten tons of pieces that I've wanted 🤷♂️. Your source cannot be: just trust me bro If you can submit evidence of this, I will believe you.
Yeah give me a few I’ll post the link I was reading it I was like $#!7 Not every game will use this of course but, I was playing a game when I learned about the little extra health they give after your health hits zero They do this so it gives time to react something like that but hold up…
how much did nexon paid you so you lie this much ? They are at least 1k proffs the drop rates are wierd and you explain something that it's obviously sent by nexon just for you to read
@@RealAsianRobot and how you know what you saying it's truth ? did you write the code for the game ? Did nexon not got fined for .. drum rolll ..... " fixing drop rates " this thing screams " nexon made me read this cuz im a fanboy" So you are right , but all the 1000+ people who complain on daily bassis only IN THIS GAME that the rates are wierd are lying ? Support me as an Official Nexon Content Creator by CLICKING THIS LINK - we belive you don't try to lie to us
Also, I believe that the loot share the same Loot Spot, meaning only 1 item from the chance pool can drop and sadly, from a lot of testing, it seems like if both a higher chance item rolls 1 as well as the item you want, it's the higher chance item is given instead of the lower chance item, which is why you feel as if you have a much lower chance than you do in this video where you are only rolling one of the dice.. Basically, a better demonstration would be to take 4 or 5 dice, each with a different probability and each time two roll 1, you pick the higher chance dice as the drop.
I answered this on stream, but just for the record, no, it does not. There is no way to increase the drop rate of amorphous from the outpost beyond the rates posted since it is mission reward and not a mission monster drop.
The one thing that needs to be mention is that the random generator is different per cpu. I have been tempted to run the game with an AMD because I am finding people with AMD get a better chance to get a drop.
@@aramirezar564 I don't think it's a probability thing like say a 5 sided dice. Yes, you have a 1 in 5 chance to roll the number you want. I think of it like this. There are 5 items totaling up to 100 total items. The 6% chance drops will have 6 of those spots in the 100 and the 32% chance drops will have 32 of those 100 spots and so on for the other percentages. Or at least that's they way it should work Imo.
@justin28715 i more or less understand the system. I like the game a lot but at some point the grind is too repetitive. I have a 25% to get an A-mat, a 6% to get my desired drop, and typically have to run 2 void shard missions before i can even use the A-mat. The loop is too repetitive and mind numbing to have no bad luck protection of some kind. I've had plenty of great luck but when it's bad, it's really bad. I'm tired boss.
That's why you take breaks and don't just grind one thing. If you hyper focus on one thing you will burn out This is how all looter shooter games and all grindy loot based games work. If you're tired, then please play something else, come back after 1 week if you are refreshed. Many people make the mistake of burning themselves out on grindy games. The only people who can grind these games all day, every day are those that love grind or those who are obsessed with it lol. The latter usually burns out
Can you explain additional rewards for a successful infiltration showing rewards drop rate range between 5% to 25%? Does this mean every successful infiltration run will roll between 5 to 25% drop rate? Is it possible to influence this somehow? Thanks for the vid.
As long Nexon is not rigging the drop rates using some modified math. formula or even AI I´m ok. But also each fail getting what you want should give you an stack to make easier to achieve your rolls.
They are looking at a potential 'pity' system, as stated in my last patch note vid (director's comment section). So yeah, we might get something like that. Drop rates are def not rigged.
I think the issue is people just dont trust nexon to be responsible and use numbers to their advantage to get you to be so defeated you just use the shop! That's where I'm at in this game! I just quit farming anything quit caring and just use what i have and run missions with friends to waste time!
I’m no stranger to odds and probabilities, I explain to others in the same light “it’s like rolling x amount sided dice…” However, I saved about 45 minutes of footage where I was doing those 1 minute downtime missions that drop amorphous material patterns. Lo and behold it was where the Valby farm is. Nothing dropped, repeatedly. I’d get stabilizers and gold mods but neither AMP would drop. My gf got 10 in the space if 22 runs and I the 22nd one is where one dropped. I was running Sharen. What are the odds of two items (both respectively 25% to drop) not dropping after 22 runs. The math is funky here on Nexon’s part. It’s a lot of footage for not a single amorphous drop; day prior on Valby AMP run only reached 12 by the time my teammates had 30 each. I switched to Public and received four in a row, a miss and then a fifth. Is it because I’m the one doing the invisibility on Sharen or? Thoughts, ideas? 🍀
What you have described is what luck is. You could roll a fair dice virtually 166 times and come up with 10 every time. It's statistically close to impossible, but it CAN happen. That's the exact issue with games like this. Players feel when they are hunting for something that they don't get what they are hunting for. However, it's just how luck works. It's literally the entire basis of luck. Yesterday I opened 23 Amorphous and did not get the secret garden nano-tube. My girl got 2 of them in just 10 runs. Viola, that's luck lol.
@@RealAsianRobot luck my @$$, youre just trying to defend nexon bcs u have a partnership with them, this doesnt afect you since u can get free resources from them as long as ure covering their scum practices, this is not the fisrt time nexon has been sued for faking their drop rate percentage, do u really want us blindly believe that they wond do the same now?
I feel like some of the materials you need activators and catalyst need better drop rates. You essentially need 10 catalysts for a descendent and weapon and most builds in the end game don’t function as well unless you have the discounted mods slotted in. Definitely needs some tweaking
Not really, it's very easy to drop at end game. I have over 40 blueprints just farming other stuff. I felt this way about it before I got into hard mode. Once you start farming stuff for real, you'll drown in blueprints lol
Yup. I opened 200 Amorphous and only have 3 Nano Tube's. My friends all finished their secret gardens already kek. Don't worry and don't give up. That's just how luck and chance works. The reactors are cake now, so I'll be finishing my secret garden soon
I see this and understand this but don't like it lol. I can hit 3% and 6% drops like they're going out of style but give me and 10% or better and I can't get crap. I farm for a 32% drop weapon part and get the 6% energy pattern 5 times in a row and can't get the 32% weapon part to save my life. Hell, I wasn't even farming for ultimate descendants and have nearly completed 3 of them, the only thing I need for them is a 20% drop piece, which I figure I'll get farming for weapons parts not wanting the ultimate part but getting it any way.
@FlareKnight2 facts they drop that energy activator at 3 % none stop and i just want a 32% wave of light blueprint and can't get it but keep getting the 3 percent activator they def rigged this shit
If you attempt this 10 times, there is a 51.3% chance you will get it. If you attempt this 20 times there is a 64.2% chance of success. 40 attempts = 81.1% chance. In other words, you've got some grafting to do.
@@asdasdasdasd-yd5mo NO! If you decide to do the event once it is a 6% chance, if you do the event 10 times the probability of you being successful once increase. Please google this or ask Ai
@@asdasdasdasd-yd5mo yes it;s a 6% chance IF you do it ONCE, but if you do it 10 times the chances of you being successful ONCE out of those 10 runs is 51.3%.
i really don’t think these %’s they show us are truthful. i ran a void mission to get focus on electric (20% chance) i ran it 38 times!!!!! not a single one dropped
That's literally how RNG works. You could run 60 times and not get it. It's a dice roll and if you keep rolling 5's you may never get the drop at all. (example the number 5 is a fail roll but you keep rolling 5). I rolled 50 Amorphous for the nanotube of secret garden (10% chance). I have gotten 1 of them. My friends have finished their weapon lol. That's what luck is mate. The % is fair when you view an entire group of friends and their drops. Some will be lucky, some won't, but again, that's RNG and that's exactly what it is. The % shown are correct, but sometimes our luck sucks kek
No, THIS is how drop rates work. You decide to farm a specific piece, you choose the route to do it, the boss route, so you spend HOURS farming the pattern, then HOURS fighting the boss, and out of 35 times you get 35 of the SAME item that you already have. So you decide to farm HOURS again, but this time you go the outpost route, so you spend HOURS farming polymers, you go fight the mini boss, out of 25 times you dont get it, fast forward, you used 90 patterns, wasting time going back and fourth from outpost to farming polymers.
I spend 47 try try to get 1 ultimate dec part. It's like the game know i need that part and never give me that part part. Heck i even get 3 energy activator ton of other part and zero part that i need 😂
Hi boss. No one has talk about the real step by step for the progression of this game. I would say, play, unlock bunny, make a budget bunny build. Unlock ultimate bunny for very easy general framing them unlock a boss killer? These are my humble tots. 🤗🤗🤗
Basically, its 20% EACH run instead of 20% for overall runs thats the way to look at it. So its not 20% overall its 20% EVERY run making it different odds each time
Good video bro! Like others here, im farming for sharon pieces and am so frustrated and just really pissed off ! Love the game especially for free, but give this ole dog a bone !!!
Pray to RNGesus. You will get it. Luck and chance is unfortunately how things go. I remember doing a particular run 10 times for sharen. Rest I got it in one go
I feel that in real life, these numbers work this way, but since there's no such thing as actual randomness to a computer that it does not work like this in game
@musicizair1188 I won't try and counter that belief. All I can say is that, having tested it extensively in our own community. The numbers are genuinely fine, some players will have good luck, some will have bad. Eventually the grind evens out if you play enough 🤷♂️
@RealAsianRobot Thing is it's not a belief it's scitifically testable. They're programs based on set parameters that can be tweaked to predictable outcomes like counting cards. It's not easy but achievable non the less, the problem with playing until luck evens out is time has a value of it's own because it is limited and not just in one way which makes it more precious I'm sure you'd agree. I feel like they are manipulating these drop values and hiding behind the excuse that RNG is in fact random and can't be changed for more favorable odds which they definitely can be. Saying drop rates just don't work like that isn't going to cut it, especially when you have a demoralized player base that starts to dwindle every week. Eventually many very well may achieve the most of their goals, but let's be honest do we think the majority will stick around or will their numbers turn into a revolving door of new players while relying on a meager number of consistant core members.
@musicizair1188 please test and prove that drop rates do not work like this. We are satisfied with what we have seen in our own community and we can assure you the drop rates are perfect and everyone has managed to farm everything F2P Playerbase will also remain very stable, it's a looter shooter. If they cannot accept bad luck, this is the wrong genre for them unfortunately 🤷♂️
@RealAsianRobot I'm sorry I'm unclear are you apart of nexon, who is we and in what community. I'm assuming not the one I'm also apart of the way you are phrasing things. Also I don't need to prove that they don't work the way you said they do. They absolutely do work that way, but also involve components that are key to the whole of why they're not seeing the drops they feel they should be seeing. Them saying 20% should drop out of 5 runs may be incorrect but still doesn't explain how many people all consistency seem to be experiencing what you're calling bad luck, I refer back to my last comment for why this is. Absolutely you are correct if you don't like it leave I mean business wise not a strong strategy but if you can afford to tell people I don't want to hear you whine then hey why not. I personally stopped playing weeks ago along with others I talk to but it has nothing to do with the type of game or genre not to mention it's not just the drops the game gets monotonous quick which makes waiting for those drops seem 10x longer. Thanks for taking the time to reply BTW I appreciate your time
I gonna say its better than division 2 drop rate still aint get my uborous been months an u can only run tht 1 time a week per character. This game some days u get lucky others shit
Im so glad you made this video, ive had so many people arguing with me saying something like "20% at 21 runns is 99% chance to get it" 😂 i sent them this and i hope this will.help them understand!
10% at 1 try =1/10 But the more 1/10s chances you take the more likely it should drop. If you run something a million times at 1/10 chance...the overall probably probability of obtaining the item is no longer 1/10. It's really not that hard to understand
So you watched the video & you still don’t understand probability 😂 Kid, did you notice that when he did multiple runs for 4 “people” he never once exceeded 10 runs to get a 1? He even got multiple for the two of them & “they” even got it on their 1st try. And you think this somehow proven your childish uneducated argument?! You are more delusional than I initially thought 😂
@@mvumsiayo3214 the guy obviously doesn’t understand what he just watched 😂 He thinks this somehow proves him right when in practice (the 4 “people” example at 20% chance) clearly proved mine Dunning Krueger at its finest
@shinyagami8843 it doesn't prove you right 😂😂 but like I said before if you can't understand there is no point wasting time trying to tell you. You clearly didn't do very well in math class in middle school 😂
Do all the math you want it still doesn’t add up when you have tons of people experiencing the same thing. I have noticed people who spent money on the game have better drop rates than those who just want to grind for certain stuff.
Although a very informative video, I wanna give up on my quest for the mid-air maneuvering mod. I think I'm the only person who doesn't have this mythical mod. 😔
I have tried for Greg's Reversed Fate Nano Tube Blueprint on Hanged Man. Also ran that god forsaken Heart of the Fortress every time. 38% chance and it dropped twice out of 24 times and got like 20 of those Albion gun blueprints instead. I just deleted the game for now 😂. I cant anymore lol.
Yeah... But doing something shady once _(that we know of)_ in order to continue selling items in their cash shop and being fined over drop rate manipulation will definitely leave a sour taste in every player's mouth.
That was a different dev team my guy. Maplestory devs are not the devs for this game. It's up to you what you think, but I've also done a full test of drop rates and they are fully fair, even did the test live on stream and recorded it. So it's up to you what you want to believe, but the evidence already showcases everything in this game is fair. Don't like it, don't play, simple.
That's literally how luck works mate. I ran 31 runs for a secret garden nano tube and all my friends got all of them, I got 0 lmao. That's how RNG works. It's literally a dice roll each time, you could do another 50 runs and have all 50 be the same item. Or you could run 50 and get a different item each time 🤷♂️ It's literally luck. And it's how it works in all other games too. Only diff is they show you the loot table here
i came in here expecting details on how the roll table and coding for drop rates work for the game, but instead got a basic k-12 probability lesson instead.... like the percentages listed by the user interface is fine and all as a reference, but that's only assuming no bugs or erroneous coding on the part of the programmers for example, i've ran the same dungeon 12 times now, looking for a 20% chance to drop blair piece with no luck the probability of that occuring is 0.8^12 which is approx 6.8% given the small sample size thus far it would not be enough to prove that drop rate does not match the listed rate, but if i had a larger sample size and the drop rate did not improve then i am either the most unlucky 6 out of 1000 people, or something's wrong with the drop rate now if i can run it 10 more times and still not get the drop i might just be more unique than a snowflake
There are no bugs or erroneous coding, the drop rates all function exactly as intended. We have tested the drop rates in our community and recently did one for Hailey's drop which you can see on stream and in a video summarizing it. The drop rates are indeed operating as stated. Folks just get unlucky at times and then look for a reason to explain it. Here's a quick and simple lesson: game population can be up to 100,000 at the best of times. 80% have the normal drop rate, 20% will experience a skewed drop rate. 20% is roughly 20,000 people. So it's more common than people think to experience a 'bad' run. Sure statistics will tell you that it's highly improbable, but it does happen. Another example, every member of our community can usually get a 10% drop rate in about 20 or so runs. One guy took 100 runs to get 1 of the 10% drop rate pieces despite the probability of this being less than 1%. That's how bad someone' luck can get. The drop rate was still fair though and it functioned as advertised but sometimes, you are that one unlucky dude 🤷♂️. When the game first started about 60 people or so did 50 runs for a 20% Freyna piece and never got it. Despite them flipping tables, the drop rate was still as advertised. Because over 300k were playing at that time, so 60 people having a skewed drop rate is within the expected range of outcomes.
this is why i always farm 10 pattern first before opening if i did not get it i will change my farm or rest and try another day dont burn yourself and complain on facebook or twitter xD
I understand the math, but the company is still lying about drop rates. I have farmed thunder hammer 4 times. Now, what’s the probability that we would run a mission 25+ times for each part? The current grind I’m over 35 mission attempts for the “20%” drop.
I counter that by saying, there are so many of my viewers and friends who literally finished this in roughly 24 missions. 4 parts in just 6 runs. The fact is, the company is not lying about the drop rates. What players often forget is that we have over 100,000 CONCURRENT players (including all platforms). Even in a normal statistical distribution, 80% of people experience the 'average' drop rate. While 20% experience a skewed distribution (both positive and negative). One of my friends is skewed positive, they get everything on the first try. I tend to be skewed negative, I often have to farm 30 to 40 to get a 10% drop chance. But that's just how luck and chance is. Viewed on its own, you may be biased in your confirmation, but when you start to view an entire community, things make a lot more sense.
@@RealAsianRobot I should specify. The drop rates for me are a lie! ( This is sarcasm. ) For the 100,000 it might be 20%. My account feels like it changes the odds of any item that I look up the drop location in game. because the chance of successfully getting the 80% rewards 25 times, twice in a row is around 0.0000142129 This shit luck has also been repeated in this game for other parts. It just sucks to be the ass end of the bell curve in every single loot drop. lol
@calebcundiff1057 lol I feel that. Everyone got enduring legacy in my stream community but me...and I'm the damn streamer 🤣🤣. So I feel you on that. Just know that it's just bad luck. Although right now a rumor is becoming true that if you watch my stream while farming, you get better drops. It actually has been working hilariously for several folks in the community
But this is about to go out the window dev announced there gonna implement a system soon if you don't get a drop doing consecutive runs will increase the drop rate each time until you get all the drops from that mission
I understand Probability, but if I try 20 times and DON't get that damn "Energy Activator Blueprint" , the Probability of me deleting the game goes up to 100% , are you listening Nexon? as i'm not alone on this issue
That's okay, you do you :) I hope you find a game more suitable for yourself! Thank you and have a nice day! FYI you need about 76 runs to get a 90% chance of getting one if going for the 3% drop rate :P
his math is wrong the drop rate does mean each chance you do only have a 20% change however it also means that on average this 20% item should drop once every 5 times if it doesn’t that number should be lower to show on average how often it’s drops or it’s wouldn’t be 20% and the first descendant has ether false rates or there system is bs. Sounds to me like he’s a partner or maybe likes the game and knows if this continues everyone is out.
I am an official creator but your understanding of probability is incorrect. Roll a dice in real life and tell me. On average each number has a fair chance, but roll 10 times and 1 number will come up more than the others. So yeah, talk all the nonsense you want, but a literal dice in real life will prove you wrong.
Drop rates feel rigged. I’ve farmed an item with a 20% drop rate over 30 times and didn’t get it, and the same happened to friends I was playing with. For those thinking it’s just bad luck, the probability of not getting a 20% drop in 30 attempts is 0.80^30, which is only a 0.12% chance. In other words, the odds of this happening are incredibly low. I don't know if you notice, but when you did the 20% example in Excel, there was no situation that didn't have one, and I know it can happen but it's difficult, imagine 30 times....
We have proven drop rates correct over many many attempts my guy. So if it feels rigged, dunno what to tell you. No matter how much we test, we always get a fair result. Check my Hailey Drop Rate Vid and Stream to see just how far we go to test
@@RealAsianRobot I saw the video and liked it to support it, but I would like to try to explain my point of view, which is: Firstly, I had a "situation" where the probability of it happening was 0.12% and that's ok, it could even have been bad luck, but then the same happens with other parts, in this case parts of Sharen, and the same thing happens exactly to my friends who are playing with me even in a greater number of attempts, and then I go to reddit and I am found by many, many people who complain about this, who did it 30, 40, 50 times and it didn't drop, the problem here is the chance of an event happening, if someone farms a sharen drop 40 times and nothing happens, this "situation" of happening is the same than winning a national lottery and it has happened to a lot of people... and that's not how probability works, that's not how it works as the law of large numbers says
@@Overxu While I will agree with what you're thinking, here are the facts: When Reddit was busy complaining, there were over 200k concurrent players across ALL platforms. 80% will experience normal drop rates. 20% will have a skewed rate (i.e. outliers to the normal distribution). Considering just concurrent players across ALL platforms. 20% of 200k is 40,000 (40k) people. So if even 40,000 players experienced a skewed rate, it's still within the "normal" data range distribution (as these people fall into the skewed tails of the distribution). Quite frankly, I doubt 40,000 people had this happen. I guesstimate at most 15 to 20k even at the height of the game's playerbase. Now if we are even more realistic, over 500k people downloaded and played the game, concurrent isn't a measure as it only measures who plays right NOW, so 20% of 500k is 100k. When you start applying larger numbers, it's easy to see how distributions can seem skewed. Especially when RNG screws you over. Even if 5000 people right now experienced this problem. The issue is that overall, the rates are still fair :/ I know how much it sucks when you're not getting what you want. Believe me, I've had a friend do 150 runs for 10% drop, when the possibility of NOT getting it after 50 runs is literally less than 1%, but unfortunately, that's how the dice roll. That's just how RNG is and many people fail to take into account the normal distribution as well. If you look at things on an individual basis it can feel rigged when you're on the receiving end, but we have to also look at the player population as a whole.
That's extremely unlikely but thus far we have done several tests (including one that was done live on stream for Hailey's Drop Rate in Infiltrations) and you can see how much depth we go into to test it. As far as we can tell through our numerous iterative tests, Drop rates in this game are fair and more or less conform to what is stated. At times someone may be so extremely lucky, but unfortunately the playerbase of this game is large enough that someone has to hit the bad luck (similar to how some people get ultimate pieces on their first try. I.e. that one guy that farmed every ultimate in just 200 hours)
The problem with this game is- example the rates are like this 6% 10% 20% 38% 38%. This means u r rolling 5 dice at a time n system pick 1. That system rng of picking what u want is priority based. Like on 5 rolls u got 10% 38% but the priority goes to 38% one most of time.
That's not how it works mate. You're rolling 1 dice that has 100 numbers. 6 are for the top drop, the other 94 numbers correspond to different drops. You either get it, or you don't. It's not priority based my guy lol. I cannot counter your beliefs, but based on the data we have seen in our community, this is how it works.
Imagine having someone taking his time to explain to you how statistics and probability works, something you may use in your daily routines even on the dumbest things and shoving it all up just to define it "dumb luck". Some of you are just lost, somehow making it past adult age
Yes, because it is helpful information that many still refuse to believe👍. If you are unhappy with this, you are not required to return to my content. Have a nice day pal! 😁
Yeah, a 20% chance does not mean 20% of runs WILL yield the item. It's a 20% chance on a particular run you get the item. The number of runs doesn't matter, barring a pity system. Sure, there is the concept statistically that, on average, after the fifth run you should have what you want, but there is never anything guaranteeing that. Could be the first. Could be fifth. Could be after a hundred. On average, it's likely to be the fifth, but we aren't all the average, and the issue is that a lot of the people who are happening to be on the unfortunate fringe of the spread are crying foul play when in actuality, they're just on the unfortunate end of the statistical distribution.
Yeah that's what I've tried to explain to many folks. We have a concurrent playerbase in like the 100,000s. So even 5% of the population which is 5000 having impossible odds like never getting Freyna, would actually be considered to be 'normal' within the statistical averages of such a large population. Unfortunately, players don't get it sometimes
@@RealAsianRobot yeah, it can be utterly frustrating at times, and unfortunately for a lot of people, they've already made up their minds how "unfair" it is and have already chosen what they believe the circumstances are.
@MechaMan2012 Pretty much yeah, but my duty is just to put out the info and explain as best I can. If they don't believe me, there is nothing I can do unfortunately lol
I wonder why at times onky the right most item is the only one that drops. With the weighting being even between 4 and 5 it shouldnt happen as often as it does. At least on my end. Maybe im on an exteme end of random rng
If you look at Amorphous, it all adds up to 100%. So it's literally just a random roll of the dice haha. Yours just happens to come up with whatever number hits that right side.
Good to know drop rates are just BS cause I’ll be running the mission double the number of times that it should take to get the material. Just give me a guarantee way to get the materials instead of wasting my time.
Then why I did over 50 121 to get Ajax part at 10% or 6% and never got him + I used stabilizer more than 10 times making it 16% when TF will ult Ajax part drop and I realized after the update I barely get 121 amorphous from outpost I used to get it every single run now I barely do
It's literally luck and chance bro. You can see it on my streams. I'll sometimes farm outposts and get nothing. It's a 25% (or 5 to 25% chance for the infiltration amorphous) and 20% chance for normal Amorphous. You have a 75 to 80% chance to get nothing when farming an outpost. If you were getting them every run before, then that's when your luck was good. You literally explained to yourself how luck and chance works mate
That's the mission end reward right? That's because the mission end reward is a separated pool, unlike Amorphous. Amorphous is a single pool that guarantees a reward so it adds up to 100% But the end of the mission has a table of rewards. For example: For the Sharen Code at the end of the mission, the code is in its own pool that has 20% chance of dropping or 80% chance of getting nothing. That's why the percentages for all rewards end up at more than 100%, because there are multiple reward pools for the ending of missions.
We did a whole stream testing Hailey's pieces drop rate. You can check how it is. Furthermore, we've tested other drop rates in a similar fashion. So we know for sure the drop rates are fair. Whether you believe it is up to you, but we are satisfied with the evidence we have.
I got an ultimate bunny part with a 3% chance 1 try wasn’t even goin for it either now that I only need ultimate valby’a enhanced cells I’m pushing up on 20 runs
Update: I got two Secret Garden nano tube's. My first one dropped within 6 amorphous. But the next one took 15 amorphous. Also I've been farming inbetween getting them. I figured it might take more than 50 to get them.
Is all of these formulas based off if the value that is provided by the developers are correct? I understand the frustration people are having in regards to the loot, but where as people are calling to questions the legitimacy of numbers provided by the developers, most are just responded with "You don't know probability!". To me, all the explanations of probability only works if the base value provided is true. If the given percentage displayed on the screen is false, then people are justified in their anger. I am not a math person, I have no means of verifying probability, probably one of you can.
As far as I know, the numbers shown are 100% accurate and they have not skewed the numbers. People calling it into question are hanging off the Maplestory problem, which is a real case, but that involved gacha lootboxes and not drop rates. You cannot BUY most of the stuff that drops anyway and I have tons of Energy Activators and Crystallization Catalysts (the stuff that you can buy). So yes, their numbers are correct!
This is a problem i complained about my first week, I understand the system, but if an item has 32%-38%, having to run that more than 3 times is rigged. This game makes you over grind. Example Sharen: Go hack a place, 20% chance to drop an Amorphus, then 5%-25% chance to get another one, then you open that for a chance at an item you want. This and Hard Mode Bosses being the endgame is not a good design. I will have all my Ultimate Character within 2 weeks if i grind hard and then most of the content is done with the game. Weapons will get nerfed so farming for them is not worth the full grind for them. Having to get gold for all the items and not having a proper system for it bad.
Not being rude but first of all 33% is 1/3. Did you actually watch the video? You can flip a coin and it can land 12 times in a row on tails. Just because it's 50% doesn't mean you'll get it in two tries. It's literally what rng is. You cam tell this player base is not anyone who plays arpg's lol. In diablo 2 there are items with less then a .05% to get. Path of exile, another f2p game has drop rates lower then 1%.
@@Sleepyjoe_69 The beginning of the video i understand which is why i mentioned i said i get what he is saying and stated some examples as how this systems are broken and rigged, so maybe i didn't articulate it well. My bad, this game will die once the hardcore players who have no content leave. You can spend all the money you won't it won't save the game unless you fix what is wrong.
@@birdz9252 I didn't see this. Well that's cool friend. I haven't spent any outside of 20 bucks. You do you do. Rng is simple if you understand probability. Also, tip never gamble, you'll always think the house is cheating you.
@@Sleepyjoe_69 My college did a lottery for my class and i didn't get into it even though i was the first one there lol. Anyway, update to my comment. I stopped playing the game about two weeks ago, As i was going for Ultimate Lepic i got really tired of stupid mechanics, not really good ways too get gold. Just got tired, I hope the season 1 is really good for everyone, Unfortunately I am done with this game which sucks because I do like these types of games.
I don’t care how people say drop rates actually work; you cannot convince me that the game doesn’t know exactly what I want to drop, and then proceeds to not give it to me for days on end.
@dredgen0268 that's exactly what it does I took a break farming character pieces n went for weapons only to get multiple 6% ulti character pieces dropped and little to no weapon pieces
Yeah I quit target farming anything and just started doing random shit I quit caring I can't even get a ultimate at 160 hours or a stupid ultimate weapon of doing 40 runs here 40 runs there for b.p getting all the other parts crafted then can't get the BP to drop. Only gives me what I already have and don't want. It's a total joke. Feels worse somehow after the update
💯 bro
It’s just weird cause in game “dice roll” is always 3-5x longer than if I actually did a good dice roll IRL. I get probability but when most to everybody is having to do something more than 20 times I believe something is off. Nexon is known for having bs rates
I also feel like thus is true. I get multiple drops that are rarer than the one I want before I get what I need. Had that happen so often now. And the one time i need the 32% drop I don't get it in 3 runs. And I always use the acces info tab to go there so the game knows what I want.
Been grinding the same spot for 48 hours and still haven’t got my one drop
Yep character drops are rigged but it seems the other things aren't but it's definitely suspicious that every single character part for every single character doesn't seem to have the same drop rate as displayed frustrated enough to just buy the character in the shop
It took me 5 days to get the last 10% Enduring Legacy blueprint.
It took me 1 day to get all FOUR 6% Ultimate Gley parts.
RNG is going to RNG.
Exactly the poinnt
😢😭 I'need 2 more of those Blueprint for Enduring legacy
@@Malak-AlMawt Good luck, my dude! May RNGesus be with you!
It's not RNG.
It's RNG filtered through Nixon's patented loot drop system. Look up the parent, or read about it. Then come back and see if you still wanna talk about RNG.
@@mvumsiayo3214 show proof. And no, the maple story is not about the patent.
Just because they have a patent doesn't mean they use it.
Appreciate it brother , love this video. Not other content creators being this creative. Your becoming my fav tfd creator.
No worries 😁👍. I have every intention of being the best and only creator that rely on
Regular cash shop buyers appear to be getting better RNG/Drop rates compared to non buyers. Pure speculation but we think there is a flag or some type of modifer that cash shop buyers get for a certain duration after a purchase.
I'm just one case.... friend bought luna, ult bunny, and yujin. Took 70 tries for ult viessa spiral. Me, with only the battle pass, done with every descendant... max 35 tries on 4 parts. Good luck to you.
Omg, more people need to see this!!!! 😭 this is what I've been trying to explain, but they just dont get it 😭 they get mad because they dont understand the mathmatics behind it all
Youre the man! Thank you for putting this out there. Hopefully, within time, more people will see this and understand instead of jumping immediately.
Keep it up!!!
I feel that haha, but it's okay. At least they have a vid to reference now
You can understand the math behind it and still be mad at it since it sure the hell doesnt feel like 20% and they got sued before for lying about the drop rates.
@OverlyCriticalAnime that was for a different game with a different dev team and it involved real money via gacha.
That's the only reason action was taken.
This is a completely separate dev team and the drop rates have been proven fair through multiple tests
@@RealAsianRobot That's clear since it was in Korea but that doesn't give a free pass here.
I wouldn't doubt they are messing with the rates.
@@OverlyCriticalAnime Okay then, in that case. I would recommend you play a different game. Have a nice day
To sum it up, if your luck sucks, then you won't get lucky no matter the probability is. Law of average, it will even out after some time. :)
@@kennymenorias827 pretty much. The law of large numbers always applies to situations like this. So over 1000 iterations. The dorp rate is likely to reach the set 20% with only a slight margin of error. But in smaller samples (10 to 20 runs) you can have a lot if variance
I still think they are so frustrating , I’ve spent almost 20 tries trying to get the Sharon piece and in that time I also got four transcendent mod drops which have a 1.5% chance. Bullshit. How. FOUR. I’ve been playing MMO‘s all of my life and 20% in this game feels horrible compared to 20% in a game where I have to enhance my gear with a 80% fail rate
Your dice roll was just that good :P
the mods drops from elites, wich you kill more times in a dungeon
I can't here u.
@keithrose5857 everyone else seems to hear me just fine 🤣🤣
@Haz3Nation bro!, I'm trying to get Sharon pieces too! Freaking ridiculous!! We've probably played together 😆 I'm frustrated!!
Really good explanation. Was going for Blair parts, one of them took me 20+ runs, other parts only 3 or 4 runs.
Yup. That's how RNG works 😁👍. It's simple luck and chance and once you know it. You just relax and enjoy the game. When the dice favour you, you get what you need haha
Yeah just finished the regular Blair grind yesterday and goddam it took like 3 or 4 hrs for the last piece lol...idk how many runs that was, worse it was the dungeon with the dumb jumping puzzle lol...where for some reason the character doesn't grab the ledge or more annoying the double jump just doesn't work randomly. Even with lvl 100 gear and barely breaking my shield I still wanted to throw my controller at the screen lol.
coming from a lot of gacha i use this same system where in instead of 10 i grind 20 amorphius materials before opening because it brings me that feeling of pulling 100x on every gacha game that i play and i feel like my odds are higher opening 20 but ya it really doesnt work everytime but that is my sweet spot and i dont feel bad because getting catalyst is more than enough and i dont expect the blueprint much rather i more or less hope i get a few catalyst whilst praying i get the blueprint at the same time.
TLDR playing gbf helped me cope on the grind because the amount of times i had to redo a single raid for a single weapon drop is far worse then the grind on this game
Thanks Robot! As someone who’s getting ready to beat the game this is going to help me down the road with farming for characters and mods for endgame builds!
@@astar5w no worries. I am always happy to explain things to people
How his him talking shit about random dice going to help you do anything is he going to farm for you ? is he going to beat everything for you ? No so he actually didn't do shit yet idiots like you think he did 😂
47 tries for freyna enhanced cells when 5 tries for other pieces
Feel that you are not getting the one think you want?
Its called Dynamic RNG based on player activity.
They have done it in maple story
They likely are doing it now
There's a nice way to show this example in a really cool model they teach kids with
So that's how they work. Thank you for explaining!
May the dice roll in my favour. - Gale from BG3
Exactly. Always hope for them to roll well ;)
I know the struggle is real. I was/ have been farming the blue beetle blue print for 3 days at 15 runs a day. My buddie runs it oance on the dead bride and gets right off the rip. I was so disappointed. Told him to keep that info to himself.
I feel that. I know how it is to see your friends have better luck 🤣🤣
Long story short, Be Grateful, and enjoy what you've gotten, be it a 38% chance or a 5% chance item, take nothing for granted in games like this, the numbers are pretty much useless to the user, just there to make you mad.
All you have to know is that any Ultimate Gley part is Very Rare. Freyna part is uncommon and Nazeistra's Devotion is a plague.
😂thanks for the vid!
I would hardly say the numbers are useless to the user 🤣🤣, but I do agree that you should always be grateful for whatever drop you get.
For me, the numbers help me guesstimate the effort needed
@@RealAsianRobot true true
But for me angry peasant it's better to just say Very Rare, Rare, Uncommon or Common like in Warframe for example. Works better for me.
When I see numbers I can't help but math how many attempts I should need for that... And as we learned, that's pretty much useless, to guess how many attempts
I was able to farm ult valby on the morning of release in about 2.5 hours. Luna on the other hand I still haven’t completed. 2 pieces finally dropped for Luna yesterday
One think that has proven over countless times for me to work is whenever I don’t get what I want within two or three try’s. I hold start and leave the game load back up and usually get it within two or three more try’s. Works flawlessly. Another thing is when you’re grinding for anamorphous materials at the vulgus strategic outposts. (Only works if others are there) let them do the bunch of the work until the last ish second so you can get a few shots on the boss and almost every time I’ve gotten the material from that. Weird but it works so good. Waaay higher chance than regular degular. Give it a shot!
I'm bad at math especially statistics and probability but man this really helped. Amazing vid as always 🔥
No problem. I am always happy to teach!
Brilliant video this was well needed for players that aren't math nerds lol. No but honestly i hope this clears up some of the misinformation spreading about the drop rates❤
You know it haha, I love finally being able to teach an Excel Math lesson :D. We are nerds to the core!
So explain to me then when it is telling me 20% and I have to run the same stupid boss 25 times. I understand it's not run five times and I will get it but at this point I'm convinced to just take 10% off the odds when I see it. If it's telling me 15 it will be more like a 5 and 20 becomes 10.
It's a dice roll.
You are rolling a dice between 1 to 5. If you happen to roll a 5 40 times and never any other number, you still will not get the drop. You could go for an entire 40 runs and still not get the 20% drop.
A 1 in 5 chance, does not mean that you will get it even after 200 runs, since there is no pity system here and every drop is raw RNG.
However, that's how RNG works.
When you finish the mission, you roll the dice and the dice has a 20% probability of giving you the loot you want. It does not mean you will have any sort of luck running the mission a certain number of times to get something.
It's why many people come up with "personal luck" systems. These are not rooted in statistics or fact but are based on personal experience.
Example: if you watch my streams I have a rule of 10. I gather 10 Amorphous before rolling. Even then, I may not get the drop I want, but my chances always feel best with 10. This is not based on math, but gut feeling.
So if you feel like taking 10% off the odds based on your personal luck. Go ahead. The statistics themselves are fair, but you should adjust your methodologies based on your own results.
Much needed video. So tired of people saying rigged drops or whatever reach they try to go for just because RNG is being RNG.
Unfortunately, most do not understand the concept :D
I do understand the concept but there is smthn weird after the last update
@sezax2120 a lot of people have been feeling this way, but honest to god, it's just how luck and chance works. I have had no trouble getting everything I need in game with a full f2p grind. Only thing I buy are skins :/.
Some grinds have been frustrating, but that's literally how luck and chance works.
Sometimes it may feel off, but that's just how human emotional bias works. I usually just take my emotions out of the equation and boom eventually I get my drop and move on
It doesn't make me suspicious when I don't get a 32% drop in 5 tries. What makes me suspicious is when I commonly get the wrong 32% drop 5 times in a row. That's like a 0.3% chance of happening, but it happens to me all the time
Welcome to statistics.
@@MechaMan2012 no
@@MechaMan2012 this is not statistics, this is control of drops to keep us grinding
@@none_o_ur_bidnis no, it's statistics. They've said no control is happening, and unless actual proof to the contrary comes out, this just sounds like you just happened to be the player this particular rng spread happened to. Here's hoping you get the drop you want soon :)
@@MechaMan2012 the odds of it happening as much as it does to as many people as it does is astronomical. If you actually understood statistics you would know that something is off.
There's also a pool rewards. If you think we got random number generated from 1 to 100 to represent the reward then you've been mistaken. There' s a reason why you can do 100 runs and not getting any of the 3% reward.
@brodull1142 there are various pools for mission drops, but Amorphous only has 1 pool. If you check the numbers, it always adds up to 100%. So you're just doing a single loot roll. Hope this helps
The thing with probability is that when each item in an amorphous material have a set chance to drop, there should be instances where none of the items roll a 1 and you get nothing. But there's is a factor that is taken into account in this game that guarantees that you get one of the item.
@RAYZOR-Xx I think you might be misunderstanding. All the drops in the Amorphous add up to a total of 100%.
For Amorphous, the game just rolls a 100 sided die. It will come up with a number from 1 to 100 and depending on the number you come up, you will get 1 of the 5 items listed.
For example: Numbers 1 to 6 (equating to 6% chance out of 100) may be assigned to the Energy Activator Blueprint. So if you happen to roll a 5 you get the blueprint. The other numbers will then correspond to other drops in accordance with their probability.
@@RealAsianRobot I never really noticed that they add up to 100% but if that's the case then yes one item will be guaranteed to drop due to probability.
@@RealAsianRobot I mixed it up with mission rewards because there's been runs I've done where after completing the mission I was only rewarded with gold and nothing else.
@RAYZOR-Xx yeah mission rewards have a table with separate buckets and you can potentially receive 'no drop' for a particular bucket so I understand.
Im good at Maths and have a decent grasp of statistics. It shouldnt take 47 runs to get one of freynas items (like it did for me) it took me 20 tries to get valbys blueprint (at 38% chance). I dont think this game is totally honest. I got 5 transcendent modules trying to get freynas piece so it wasnt actually that frustrating. Good job im loving the game.
That's the point of the dice roll. It's random. You could roll and get a 3% activator piece but fail to get a 38% chance loot 🤣🤣.
That's the point of RNG. It's random. So pray to the gods and pray your luck holds
Each successive run is unrelated to each other. The idea that you "should" get an item after X number of runs is a sentiment from a statistical average, but, without a pity system, you aren't guaranteed anything. Some could get a good roll and get it first try. Some could be on the other end of the spread and just about never get it. I think what's happening here is that, since the game is SO full of RNG, and it takes so long to do one roll, comparitively speaking, a vocal minority is hitting their respective "RNG walls" and crying shenanigans, when in reality that's just how RNG works.
dont mention guaranteed when talking about RNG there is no such thing as it should take me this long when you are rolling a dice that can miss roll even after doing it 100x or you can get lucky and hit the roll in your first try 10% doesnt mean 10 tries nor 20% doesnt mean 5 tries it just means you have 1/10 to hit the item you want and it doesnt increase nor decrease every amorphius rather everytime you open one you get that same roll and the only thing you can do is PRAY
Nexon has been fined before for rigging lootbox systems, drop rates have been real suspicious lately
That was for Gacha and on a totally different game with a different dev team.
Rates are completely fine in this game. I cannot counter your beliefs, but based on our tests, we have seen the drop rates work well.
Ok now that's how it's spose to work BUT nexon has in the past posted and shown what it was but it wasn't even in game meaning just cause we know and understand it doesn't mean nexon programed it that way
@gamingwithwolves5615 Up to you whether you trust them. Nexon Korea has proven at every turn to be incredibly based and their drop rates are accurate to the best of my knowledge that being said, I am not here to change anyone's beliefs. I have full faith in the current rates and they appear accurate overall.
Check out binomial probability.
If you wanted to know how many attempts would be needed to have a 90% chance of success for a 10% drop rate item then you can do: log(0.1) / log(0.9). That equals 21.85 attempts, or 22 when rounded up. If you do the same for 99% chance of success then you end up with 229.10 attempts.
Alternatively, you can ask what the probability is of you not getting the drop with a 10% drop chance in x number of tries. That would be 1 - 0.1 = 0.9, which is the chance of not getting the drop. Then you put that to the power of the number of attempts.
e.g.: 0.9 ^ 22 = 0.0985 which is a 9.9% chance that you don't get the drop in 22 attempts, or put differently its a 90.1% chance that you get the drop in 25 attempts.
Hope it helps.
This I know, but it's a bit more complex and generally is also not a true guarantee, but yes, I am well aware of it haha
@@RealAsianRobot Just thought I would share in case anyone was interested. Its definitely not a guarantee but I thought it could be useful because it shows if you want a 90% chance of success its 22 odd attempts, which is quite a lot more than most people would assume is needed given a 10% drop rate.
@ChilledUnskilled oh absolutely haha. I'm up to 30+ runs and haven't gotten another. So it do be like that sometimes.
I used to use this stuff for lootboxes haha
@ChilledUnskilled oh absolutely haha. I'm up to 30+ runs and haven't gotten another. So it do be like that sometimes.
I used to use this stuff for lootboxes haha
@@RealAsianRobot I've been away for 2 weeks so about to pickup farming again. Got my Enzo for vaults and now going for activators and catalysts. Will try to be picky about which amorphous materials I use so I can get other drops that might be nice along the way.
Here's hoping the 2 week break has let my RNG pile up in my favour, haha
When I want the lesser drop, the game gives me tons of the weapon blue prints. But when im looking for the gun blue prints it will literally give me the 6% drops before them.
Yup. This is a personal bias called the "desire sensor". People believe the greatest never gives you what you are looking for.
It's honestly just random luck 🤣🤣 but you feel it more when you're hunting for one particular thing
Painfully aware of how probability works from gatcha games,but thanks for the vid.
Others don't ;)
Well, right now I don't have too much faith in the Nexon probability rates charts.
That's a personal issue, but the statistics are as shown and are indeed fair. If you test in a group of friends, you'll see the randomness of results between a large enough group (I.e. mine)
*(Without a pity system) there is one unlucky person out there that has done it a 100 times and haven’t gotten the roll they wanted*
😔 we need a pity system!
Pity systems are for gacha games where real money is spent. Yes, there COULD be 1 unlucky person who never gets a drop after 100 runs, but they're already considering a pity system of some sort.
For people wondering
Programmer here!
It’s very easy to tell what pieces you want! 😈
Yes, the game will cheat us to get more play time out of it…
Facts of life!
How ever if your really good at the game we may give you what you want only to stick you with noobs when it comes to bosses!
💅🏽 sorry not sorry!
If you don’t believe me
Look up google analytics for video games!
They have all the secrets in there…
Bullet magnetism,
High rank vs. low rank,
Low rank vs. bots!
You name it, it’s in there!!!
Please prove this statement. I will be waiting to hear it.
Because quite frankly, I've gotten tons of pieces that I've wanted 🤷♂️.
Your source cannot be: just trust me bro
If you can submit evidence of this, I will believe you.
Yeah give me a few I’ll post the link I was reading it I was like $#!7
Not every game will use this of course but, I was playing a game when I learned about the little extra health they give after your health hits zero
They do this so it gives time to react something like that but hold up…
So I proved it and it gets deleted deleted figures
core.ac.uk/download/pdf/226141414.pdf
this is what happen when the game use real random roll instead of most of the game's pseudo random roll 😭
" IF YOU WANT, IT AIN'T GONNA DROP "
how much did nexon paid you so you lie this much ?
They are at least 1k proffs the drop rates are wierd and you explain something that it's obviously sent by nexon just for you to read
They did not pay me anything, please at least try to learn about probability first.
@@RealAsianRobot and how you know what you saying it's truth ? did you write the code for the game ? Did nexon not got fined for .. drum rolll ..... " fixing drop rates " this thing screams " nexon made me read this cuz im a fanboy"
So you are right , but all the 1000+ people who complain on daily bassis only IN THIS GAME that the rates are wierd are lying ?
Support me as an Official Nexon Content Creator by CLICKING THIS LINK - we belive you don't try to lie to us
Also, I believe that the loot share the same Loot Spot, meaning only 1 item from the chance pool can drop and sadly, from a lot of testing, it seems like if both a higher chance item rolls 1 as well as the item you want, it's the higher chance item is given instead of the lower chance item, which is why you feel as if you have a much lower chance than you do in this video where you are only rolling one of the dice.. Basically, a better demonstration would be to take 4 or 5 dice, each with a different probability and each time two roll 1, you pick the higher chance dice as the drop.
But does the increase consumable drop rate from components affect the amorphous drop rates from outpost?
I answered this on stream, but just for the record, no, it does not.
There is no way to increase the drop rate of amorphous from the outpost beyond the rates posted since it is mission reward and not a mission monster drop.
@@RealAsianRobot hehe yeah. Guess I should have deleted this request after getting a live answer. But now its here for others to see. Thanks man.
@Sunglare1 no need I just clear comments along the way when I can haha
Yep, took me a month of on/off farming to get the Python blueprint.
That is how it is my friend
Seriously?
The one thing that needs to be mention is that the random generator is different per cpu. I have been tempted to run the game with an AMD because I am finding people with AMD get a better chance to get a drop.
This is just superstition mate lol
These rates are ridiculous, 20 A- mats and not a single drop was one that i wanted?? Are you kidding?
@@aramirezar564 I don't think it's a probability thing like say a 5 sided dice. Yes, you have a 1 in 5 chance to roll the number you want. I think of it like this. There are 5 items totaling up to 100 total items. The 6% chance drops will have 6 of those spots in the 100 and the 32% chance drops will have 32 of those 100 spots and so on for the other percentages. Or at least that's they way it should work Imo.
@justin28715 i more or less understand the system. I like the game a lot but at some point the grind is too repetitive. I have a 25% to get an A-mat, a 6% to get my desired drop, and typically have to run 2 void shard missions before i can even use the A-mat. The loop is too repetitive and mind numbing to have no bad luck protection of some kind. I've had plenty of great luck but when it's bad, it's really bad. I'm tired boss.
That's why you take breaks and don't just grind one thing. If you hyper focus on one thing you will burn out
This is how all looter shooter games and all grindy loot based games work.
If you're tired, then please play something else, come back after 1 week if you are refreshed.
Many people make the mistake of burning themselves out on grindy games. The only people who can grind these games all day, every day are those that love grind or those who are obsessed with it lol. The latter usually burns out
That was me but not at the 20th try, but at the 42nd try did freyna drop 😮😂.
Sounds about right :P
Been trying to explain to a few buddies.
I hope it helps :)
Can you explain additional rewards for a successful infiltration showing rewards drop rate range between 5% to 25%? Does this mean every successful infiltration run will roll between 5 to 25% drop rate? Is it possible to influence this somehow? Thanks for the vid.
You influence it based on how many generators you destroy in stealth. Just follow my stealth guide and you're good to go :D
Simply combat numbers with numbers, i like it 😅
Well yeah, that's usually what we do haha
As long Nexon is not rigging the drop rates using some modified math. formula or even AI I´m ok. But also each fail getting what you want should give you an stack to make easier to achieve your rolls.
They are looking at a potential 'pity' system, as stated in my last patch note vid (director's comment section). So yeah, we might get something like that.
Drop rates are def not rigged.
I think the issue is people just dont trust nexon to be responsible and use numbers to their advantage to get you to be so defeated you just use the shop! That's where I'm at in this game! I just quit farming anything quit caring and just use what i have and run missions with friends to waste time!
That's one way to do it, enjoy!
I’m no stranger to odds and probabilities, I explain to others in the same light “it’s like rolling x amount sided dice…” However, I saved about 45 minutes of footage where I was doing those 1 minute downtime missions that drop amorphous material patterns. Lo and behold it was where the Valby farm is. Nothing dropped, repeatedly. I’d get stabilizers and gold mods but neither AMP would drop. My gf got 10 in the space if 22 runs and I the 22nd one is where one dropped. I was running Sharen. What are the odds of two items (both respectively 25% to drop) not dropping after 22 runs. The math is funky here on Nexon’s part. It’s a lot of footage for not a single amorphous drop; day prior on Valby AMP run only reached 12 by the time my teammates had 30 each. I switched to Public and received four in a row, a miss and then a fifth. Is it because I’m the one doing the invisibility on Sharen or? Thoughts, ideas? 🍀
What you have described is what luck is.
You could roll a fair dice virtually 166 times and come up with 10 every time. It's statistically close to impossible, but it CAN happen. That's the exact issue with games like this.
Players feel when they are hunting for something that they don't get what they are hunting for.
However, it's just how luck works. It's literally the entire basis of luck. Yesterday I opened 23 Amorphous and did not get the secret garden nano-tube. My girl got 2 of them in just 10 runs.
Viola, that's luck lol.
@@RealAsianRobot luck my @$$, youre just trying to defend nexon bcs u have a partnership with them, this doesnt afect you since u can get free resources from them as long as ure covering their scum practices, this is not the fisrt time nexon has been sued for faking their drop rate percentage, do u really want us blindly believe that they wond do the same now?
No lie. This game going to make me a become patient man. 🤣🤦🏾♂️
For sure!
I feel like some of the materials you need activators and catalyst need better drop rates. You essentially need 10 catalysts for a descendent and weapon and most builds in the end game don’t function as well unless you have the discounted mods slotted in. Definitely needs some tweaking
Not really, it's very easy to drop at end game. I have over 40 blueprints just farming other stuff. I felt this way about it before I got into hard mode. Once you start farming stuff for real, you'll drown in blueprints lol
Come on game
Come on Nexon
Come on my luck
I just want to sleep peacefully
But Freyna just keeps calling me every night bro.
Wishing you to get her soon
As someone who maxed freyna I wouldn’t even worry about
RNGesus isn't on my side, secret garden nano tube being a 10% and only from void missions is so painful :(
Yup. I opened 200 Amorphous and only have 3 Nano Tube's. My friends all finished their secret gardens already kek.
Don't worry and don't give up. That's just how luck and chance works.
The reactors are cake now, so I'll be finishing my secret garden soon
I see this and understand this but don't like it lol. I can hit 3% and 6% drops like they're going out of style but give me and 10% or better and I can't get crap. I farm for a 32% drop weapon part and get the 6% energy pattern 5 times in a row and can't get the 32% weapon part to save my life. Hell, I wasn't even farming for ultimate descendants and have nearly completed 3 of them, the only thing I need for them is a 20% drop piece, which I figure I'll get farming for weapons parts not wanting the ultimate part but getting it any way.
@FlareKnight2 facts they drop that energy activator at 3 % none stop and i just want a 32% wave of light blueprint and can't get it but keep getting the 3 percent activator they def rigged this shit
So this explains why i have been getting railed by the 6% rate for ult valby enhanced cell
Well yeah haha, your rolls simply weren't there. I've been dying on the 10% for Secret Garden Nano Tubes :P
If you attempt this 10 times, there is a 51.3% chance you will get it.
If you attempt this 20 times there is a 64.2% chance of success.
40 attempts = 81.1% chance.
In other words, you've got some grafting to do.
@@Tes_1the more times you do it doesnt change the percentage it’s a 6% chance everytime you do it
@@asdasdasdasd-yd5mo NO! If you decide to do the event once it is a 6% chance, if you do the event 10 times the probability of you being successful once increase. Please google this or ask Ai
@@asdasdasdasd-yd5mo yes it;s a 6% chance IF you do it ONCE, but if you do it 10 times the chances of you being successful ONCE out of those 10 runs is 51.3%.
17 attempts for a 20 % chance still not got the item my rng must such bad .
Yup :(, but it turns around eventually
update got it on 23rd try
i really don’t think these %’s they show us are truthful. i ran a void mission to get focus on electric (20% chance) i ran it 38 times!!!!! not a single one dropped
That's literally how RNG works. You could run 60 times and not get it. It's a dice roll and if you keep rolling 5's you may never get the drop at all. (example the number 5 is a fail roll but you keep rolling 5).
I rolled 50 Amorphous for the nanotube of secret garden (10% chance). I have gotten 1 of them. My friends have finished their weapon lol.
That's what luck is mate. The % is fair when you view an entire group of friends and their drops. Some will be lucky, some won't, but again, that's RNG and that's exactly what it is.
The % shown are correct, but sometimes our luck sucks kek
@@RealAsianRobot i must’ve been so unlucky
cuz i got the other 20% every single time but that one not a single time in 30+ :O
@@drcrayola1135 That's life haha
That feeling😎
Yeah, yeah we get it but I’m on a 20% drop rate after about 50 patterns, your not gonna convince me that the math says that’s ok
No, THIS is how drop rates work. You decide to farm a specific piece, you choose the route to do it, the boss route, so you spend HOURS farming the pattern, then HOURS fighting the boss, and out of 35 times you get 35 of the SAME item that you already have. So you decide to farm HOURS again, but this time you go the outpost route, so you spend HOURS farming polymers, you go fight the mini boss, out of 25 times you dont get it, fast forward, you used 90 patterns, wasting time going back and fourth from outpost to farming polymers.
I spend 47 try try to get 1 ultimate dec part. It's like the game know i need that part and never give me that part part. Heck i even get 3 energy activator ton of other part and zero part that i need 😂
Yup. This is the personal bias called the "desire sensor". It always feels like when you NEED it, the game throws you under the bus haha.
Hi boss. No one has talk about the real step by step for the progression of this game. I would say, play, unlock bunny, make a budget bunny build. Unlock ultimate bunny for very easy general framing them unlock a boss killer? These are my humble tots. 🤗🤗🤗
@chankoksoon that's one way to do it.
Honestly just have fun with various characters and enjoy the game 😁👍
Basically, its 20% EACH run instead of 20% for overall runs thats the way to look at it. So its not 20% overall its 20% EVERY run making it different odds each time
Well it's 1:5 each run. So the odds are the same every run. It's just whether or not you get lucky with your dice roll
@@RealAsianRobot yeah that makes sense, which is why I'm glad they are working on the system for bad luck
Good video bro! Like others here, im farming for sharon pieces and am so frustrated and just really pissed off ! Love the game especially for free, but give this ole dog a bone !!!
Pray to RNGesus. You will get it. Luck and chance is unfortunately how things go. I remember doing a particular run 10 times for sharen. Rest I got it in one go
I feel that in real life, these numbers work this way, but since there's no such thing as actual randomness to a computer that it does not work like this in game
@musicizair1188 I won't try and counter that belief. All I can say is that, having tested it extensively in our own community. The numbers are genuinely fine, some players will have good luck, some will have bad. Eventually the grind evens out if you play enough 🤷♂️
@RealAsianRobot Thing is it's not a belief it's scitifically testable. They're programs based on set parameters that can be tweaked to predictable outcomes like counting cards. It's not easy but achievable non the less, the problem with playing until luck evens out is time has a value of it's own because it is limited and not just in one way which makes it more precious I'm sure you'd agree. I feel like they are manipulating these drop values and hiding behind the excuse that RNG is in fact random and can't be changed for more favorable odds which they definitely can be. Saying drop rates just don't work like that isn't going to cut it, especially when you have a demoralized player base that starts to dwindle every week. Eventually many very well may achieve the most of their goals, but let's be honest do we think the majority will stick around or will their numbers turn into a revolving door of new players while relying on a meager number of consistant core members.
@musicizair1188 please test and prove that drop rates do not work like this.
We are satisfied with what we have seen in our own community and we can assure you the drop rates are perfect and everyone has managed to farm everything F2P
Playerbase will also remain very stable, it's a looter shooter. If they cannot accept bad luck, this is the wrong genre for them unfortunately 🤷♂️
@RealAsianRobot I'm sorry I'm unclear are you apart of nexon, who is we and in what community. I'm assuming not the one I'm also apart of the way you are phrasing things. Also I don't need to prove that they don't work the way you said they do. They absolutely do work that way, but also involve components that are key to the whole of why they're not seeing the drops they feel they should be seeing. Them saying 20% should drop out of 5 runs may be incorrect but still doesn't explain how many people all consistency seem to be experiencing what you're calling bad luck, I refer back to my last comment for why this is. Absolutely you are correct if you don't like it leave I mean business wise not a strong strategy but if you can afford to tell people I don't want to hear you whine then hey why not. I personally stopped playing weeks ago along with others I talk to but it has nothing to do with the type of game or genre not to mention it's not just the drops the game gets monotonous quick which makes waiting for those drops seem 10x longer. Thanks for taking the time to reply BTW I appreciate your time
I gonna say its better than division 2 drop rate still aint get my uborous been months an u can only run tht 1 time a week per character. This game some days u get lucky others shit
Im so glad you made this video, ive had so many people arguing with me saying something like "20% at 21 runns is 99% chance to get it" 😂 i sent them this and i hope this will.help them understand!
10% at 1 try =1/10
But the more 1/10s chances you take the more likely it should drop.
If you run something a million times at 1/10 chance...the overall probably probability of obtaining the item is no longer 1/10.
It's really not that hard to understand
So you watched the video & you still don’t understand probability 😂
Kid, did you notice that when he did multiple runs for 4 “people” he never once exceeded 10 runs to get a 1? He even got multiple for the two of them & “they” even got it on their 1st try.
And you think this somehow proven your childish uneducated argument?!
You are more delusional than I initially thought 😂
🤡
@@mvumsiayo3214 the guy obviously doesn’t understand what he just watched 😂
He thinks this somehow proves him right when in practice (the 4 “people” example at 20% chance) clearly proved mine
Dunning Krueger at its finest
@shinyagami8843 it doesn't prove you right 😂😂 but like I said before if you can't understand there is no point wasting time trying to tell you. You clearly didn't do very well in math class in middle school 😂
Do all the math you want it still doesn’t add up when you have tons of people experiencing the same thing. I have noticed people who spent money on the game have better drop rates than those who just want to grind for certain stuff.
You can believe what you want to believe. I have presented the information accurately and in accordance with how things work.
Although a very informative video, I wanna give up on my quest for the mid-air maneuvering mod. I think I'm the only person who doesn't have this mythical mod. 😔
Nah, everyone takes time to get it :). Don't sweat it too much!
I have tried for Greg's Reversed Fate Nano Tube Blueprint on Hanged Man. Also ran that god forsaken Heart of the Fortress every time. 38% chance and it dropped twice out of 24 times and got like 20 of those Albion gun blueprints instead. I just deleted the game for now 😂. I cant anymore lol.
Yeah... But doing something shady once _(that we know of)_ in order to continue selling items in their cash shop and being fined over drop rate manipulation will definitely leave a sour taste in every player's mouth.
That was a different dev team my guy. Maplestory devs are not the devs for this game. It's up to you what you think, but I've also done a full test of drop rates and they are fully fair, even did the test live on stream and recorded it.
So it's up to you what you want to believe, but the evidence already showcases everything in this game is fair. Don't like it, don't play, simple.
21 runs of swamp walker hard for a 10%drop on the item i was looking for and i got 18 of the same item and 3 of another explain that to me
That's literally how luck works mate. I ran 31 runs for a secret garden nano tube and all my friends got all of them, I got 0 lmao.
That's how RNG works. It's literally a dice roll each time, you could do another 50 runs and have all 50 be the same item. Or you could run 50 and get a different item each time 🤷♂️
It's literally luck. And it's how it works in all other games too. Only diff is they show you the loot table here
i came in here expecting details on how the roll table and coding for drop rates work for the game, but instead got a basic k-12 probability lesson instead....
like the percentages listed by the user interface is fine and all as a reference, but that's only assuming no bugs or erroneous coding on the part of the programmers
for example, i've ran the same dungeon 12 times now, looking for a 20% chance to drop blair piece with no luck
the probability of that occuring is 0.8^12 which is approx 6.8%
given the small sample size thus far it would not be enough to prove that drop rate does not match the listed rate, but if i had a larger sample size and the drop rate did not improve then i am either the most unlucky 6 out of 1000 people, or something's wrong with the drop rate
now if i can run it 10 more times and still not get the drop i might just be more unique than a snowflake
There are no bugs or erroneous coding, the drop rates all function exactly as intended.
We have tested the drop rates in our community and recently did one for Hailey's drop which you can see on stream and in a video summarizing it.
The drop rates are indeed operating as stated.
Folks just get unlucky at times and then look for a reason to explain it.
Here's a quick and simple lesson: game population can be up to 100,000 at the best of times. 80% have the normal drop rate, 20% will experience a skewed drop rate.
20% is roughly 20,000 people. So it's more common than people think to experience a 'bad' run.
Sure statistics will tell you that it's highly improbable, but it does happen.
Another example, every member of our community can usually get a 10% drop rate in about 20 or so runs. One guy took 100 runs to get 1 of the 10% drop rate pieces despite the probability of this being less than 1%. That's how bad someone' luck can get. The drop rate was still fair though and it functioned as advertised but sometimes, you are that one unlucky dude 🤷♂️. When the game first started about 60 people or so did 50 runs for a 20% Freyna piece and never got it. Despite them flipping tables, the drop rate was still as advertised. Because over 300k were playing at that time, so 60 people having a skewed drop rate is within the expected range of outcomes.
this is why i always farm 10 pattern first before opening if i did not get it i will change my farm or rest and try another day dont burn yourself and complain on facebook or twitter xD
I do the same, but thankfully I don't burn out lol
What to do with the extra super rare material, is it a waste now?
Wait until they introduce the system to break it down. It will be coming in future seasons.
I understand the math, but the company is still lying about drop rates. I have farmed thunder hammer 4 times. Now, what’s the probability that we would run a mission 25+ times for each part? The current grind I’m over 35 mission attempts for the “20%” drop.
I counter that by saying, there are so many of my viewers and friends who literally finished this in roughly 24 missions. 4 parts in just 6 runs.
The fact is, the company is not lying about the drop rates. What players often forget is that we have over 100,000 CONCURRENT players (including all platforms). Even in a normal statistical distribution, 80% of people experience the 'average' drop rate. While 20% experience a skewed distribution (both positive and negative).
One of my friends is skewed positive, they get everything on the first try.
I tend to be skewed negative, I often have to farm 30 to 40 to get a 10% drop chance.
But that's just how luck and chance is. Viewed on its own, you may be biased in your confirmation, but when you start to view an entire community, things make a lot more sense.
@@RealAsianRobot I should specify. The drop rates for me are a lie! ( This is sarcasm. ) For the 100,000 it might be 20%. My account feels like it changes the odds of any item that I look up the drop location in game. because the chance of successfully getting the 80% rewards 25 times, twice in a row is around 0.0000142129
This shit luck has also been repeated in this game for other parts. It just sucks to be the ass end of the bell curve in every single loot drop. lol
@calebcundiff1057 lol I feel that. Everyone got enduring legacy in my stream community but me...and I'm the damn streamer 🤣🤣.
So I feel you on that. Just know that it's just bad luck. Although right now a rumor is becoming true that if you watch my stream while farming, you get better drops. It actually has been working hilariously for several folks in the community
But this is about to go out the window dev announced there gonna implement a system soon if you don't get a drop doing consecutive runs will increase the drop rate each time until you get all the drops from that mission
Yeah but we don't know when it's coming or what system it will take.
I will cover it when the new system drops
I understand Probability, but if I try 20 times and DON't get that damn "Energy Activator Blueprint" , the Probability of me deleting the game goes up to 100% , are you listening Nexon? as i'm not alone on this issue
That's okay, you do you :) I hope you find a game more suitable for yourself! Thank you and have a nice day!
FYI you need about 76 runs to get a 90% chance of getting one if going for the 3% drop rate :P
Rngesus always wins.
Just play and pray for the drop.
Pretty much yes!
his math is wrong the drop rate does mean each chance you do only have a 20% change however it also means that on average this 20% item should drop once every 5 times if it doesn’t that number should be lower to show on average how often it’s drops or it’s wouldn’t be 20% and the first descendant has ether false rates or there system is bs. Sounds to me like he’s a partner or maybe likes the game and knows if this continues everyone is out.
I am an official creator but your understanding of probability is incorrect. Roll a dice in real life and tell me. On average each number has a fair chance, but roll 10 times and 1 number will come up more than the others.
So yeah, talk all the nonsense you want, but a literal dice in real life will prove you wrong.
Drop rates feel rigged. I’ve farmed an item with a 20% drop rate over 30 times and didn’t get it, and the same happened to friends I was playing with. For those thinking it’s just bad luck, the probability of not getting a 20% drop in 30 attempts is 0.80^30, which is only a 0.12% chance. In other words, the odds of this happening are incredibly low.
I don't know if you notice, but when you did the 20% example in Excel, there was no situation that didn't have one, and I know it can happen but it's difficult, imagine 30 times....
We have proven drop rates correct over many many attempts my guy. So if it feels rigged, dunno what to tell you.
No matter how much we test, we always get a fair result. Check my Hailey Drop Rate Vid and Stream to see just how far we go to test
@@RealAsianRobot I saw the video and liked it to support it, but I would like to try to explain my point of view, which is: Firstly, I had a "situation" where the probability of it happening was 0.12% and that's ok, it could even have been bad luck, but then the same happens with other parts, in this case parts of Sharen, and the same thing happens exactly to my friends who are playing with me even in a greater number of attempts, and then I go to reddit and I am found by many, many people who complain about this, who did it 30, 40, 50 times and it didn't drop, the problem here is the chance of an event happening, if someone farms a sharen drop 40 times and nothing happens, this "situation" of happening is the same than winning a national lottery and it has happened to a lot of people... and that's not how probability works, that's not how it works as the law of large numbers says
@@Overxu While I will agree with what you're thinking, here are the facts:
When Reddit was busy complaining, there were over 200k concurrent players across ALL platforms.
80% will experience normal drop rates.
20% will have a skewed rate (i.e. outliers to the normal distribution).
Considering just concurrent players across ALL platforms. 20% of 200k is 40,000 (40k) people.
So if even 40,000 players experienced a skewed rate, it's still within the "normal" data range distribution (as these people fall into the skewed tails of the distribution).
Quite frankly, I doubt 40,000 people had this happen. I guesstimate at most 15 to 20k even at the height of the game's playerbase.
Now if we are even more realistic, over 500k people downloaded and played the game, concurrent isn't a measure as it only measures who plays right NOW, so 20% of 500k is 100k.
When you start applying larger numbers, it's easy to see how distributions can seem skewed. Especially when RNG screws you over.
Even if 5000 people right now experienced this problem. The issue is that overall, the rates are still fair :/
I know how much it sucks when you're not getting what you want. Believe me, I've had a friend do 150 runs for 10% drop, when the possibility of NOT getting it after 50 runs is literally less than 1%, but unfortunately, that's how the dice roll. That's just how RNG is and many people fail to take into account the normal distribution as well.
If you look at things on an individual basis it can feel rigged when you're on the receiving end, but we have to also look at the player population as a whole.
I’ve been farming for Blair Code 20% drop chance. 40 clears have yet to see one. I’m kinda losing my mind over my odds
That's extremely unlikely but thus far we have done several tests (including one that was done live on stream for Hailey's Drop Rate in Infiltrations) and you can see how much depth we go into to test it.
As far as we can tell through our numerous iterative tests, Drop rates in this game are fair and more or less conform to what is stated.
At times someone may be so extremely lucky, but unfortunately the playerbase of this game is large enough that someone has to hit the bad luck (similar to how some people get ultimate pieces on their first try. I.e. that one guy that farmed every ultimate in just 200 hours)
The problem with this game is- example the rates are like this 6% 10% 20% 38% 38%. This means u r rolling 5 dice at a time n system pick 1. That system rng of picking what u want is priority based. Like on 5 rolls u got 10% 38% but the priority goes to 38% one most of time.
That's not how it works mate. You're rolling 1 dice that has 100 numbers. 6 are for the top drop, the other 94 numbers correspond to different drops. You either get it, or you don't. It's not priority based my guy lol.
I cannot counter your beliefs, but based on the data we have seen in our community, this is how it works.
13 mins to define dumb luck.
Imagine having someone taking his time to explain to you how statistics and probability works, something you may use in your daily routines even on the dumbest things and shoving it all up just to define it "dumb luck". Some of you are just lost, somehow making it past adult age
Yes, because it is helpful information that many still refuse to believe👍.
If you are unhappy with this, you are not required to return to my content. Have a nice day pal! 😁
Yeah, a 20% chance does not mean 20% of runs WILL yield the item. It's a 20% chance on a particular run you get the item. The number of runs doesn't matter, barring a pity system. Sure, there is the concept statistically that, on average, after the fifth run you should have what you want, but there is never anything guaranteeing that. Could be the first. Could be fifth. Could be after a hundred. On average, it's likely to be the fifth, but we aren't all the average, and the issue is that a lot of the people who are happening to be on the unfortunate fringe of the spread are crying foul play when in actuality, they're just on the unfortunate end of the statistical distribution.
Yeah that's what I've tried to explain to many folks. We have a concurrent playerbase in like the 100,000s. So even 5% of the population which is 5000 having impossible odds like never getting Freyna, would actually be considered to be 'normal' within the statistical averages of such a large population.
Unfortunately, players don't get it sometimes
@@RealAsianRobot yeah, it can be utterly frustrating at times, and unfortunately for a lot of people, they've already made up their minds how "unfair" it is and have already chosen what they believe the circumstances are.
@MechaMan2012 Pretty much yeah, but my duty is just to put out the info and explain as best I can. If they don't believe me, there is nothing I can do unfortunately lol
@@RealAsianRobot and for that, I salute you
I wonder why at times onky the right most item is the only one that drops. With the weighting being even between 4 and 5 it shouldnt happen as often as it does. At least on my end. Maybe im on an exteme end of random rng
If you look at Amorphous, it all adds up to 100%. So it's literally just a random roll of the dice haha. Yours just happens to come up with whatever number hits that right side.
Good to know drop rates are just BS cause I’ll be running the mission double the number of times that it should take to get the material. Just give me a guarantee way to get the materials instead of wasting my time.
Then why I did over 50 121 to get Ajax part at 10% or 6% and never got him + I used stabilizer more than 10 times making it 16% when TF will ult Ajax part drop and I realized after the update I barely get 121 amorphous from outpost I used to get it every single run now I barely do
It's literally luck and chance bro.
You can see it on my streams. I'll sometimes farm outposts and get nothing.
It's a 25% (or 5 to 25% chance for the infiltration amorphous) and 20% chance for normal Amorphous. You have a 75 to 80% chance to get nothing when farming an outpost.
If you were getting them every run before, then that's when your luck was good.
You literally explained to yourself how luck and chance works mate
Ah ha! So this is how gachas and RNGESUS work ! Also, does it reset after the 10th run or it just keeps going?
@kio2960 there is no reset. It's just 1 dice roll and 1 outcome. I am simply showing in the video what the results of 10 random rolls look like
@@RealAsianRobot i get ya, It is much more clear now. Thank you! You earned a new sub :)
@@kio2960 you're welcome mate. Just here to try and clear doubts
How can it list a 10% chance, a 50% chance, a 20% chance, and a 35% chance, on one item? More than 100%
That's the mission end reward right? That's because the mission end reward is a separated pool, unlike Amorphous.
Amorphous is a single pool that guarantees a reward so it adds up to 100%
But the end of the mission has a table of rewards.
For example:
For the Sharen Code at the end of the mission, the code is in its own pool that has 20% chance of dropping or 80% chance of getting nothing.
That's why the percentages for all rewards end up at more than 100%, because there are multiple reward pools for the ending of missions.
I am Person A & C for Freyna… or any other part for that matter. Lol
I feel that :P
20% drop rate my assssssss the rate is broken , and they need to fix this
We did a whole stream testing Hailey's pieces drop rate. You can check how it is.
Furthermore, we've tested other drop rates in a similar fashion. So we know for sure the drop rates are fair.
Whether you believe it is up to you, but we are satisfied with the evidence we have.
Do we we need to make sacrifices to rngesus for the drops we want? My ultimate bunny grind isn't going well rng wise 🙃
Lol no.
I mean you can if you want to.
Heck pray to Odin and Thor if you like, but whatever the case is, it's all a roll of the dice basically ;)
@@RealAsianRobot😂
Yah this same issue of solo leveling but they adding more characters meaning the dice getting bigger..
I got an ultimate bunny part with a 3% chance 1 try wasn’t even goin for it either now that I only need ultimate valby’a enhanced cells I’m pushing up on 20 runs
Yup. That's how rng goes lol. It's always luck and chance. It's the same for literally every game that has any kind of loot drop
Bro I farmed 50 amorphous for the Secret Garden nano tube becuz I knew it's gonna take forever to drop.
Same lol.
Update: I got two Secret Garden nano tube's. My first one dropped within 6 amorphous. But the next one took 15 amorphous. Also I've been farming inbetween getting them. I figured it might take more than 50 to get them.
Did thst exact mission 20 times and did not get the item. Its a escort mission that take ages, its just borderline booring.
Yeah, it's bad luck. Once did the Thundercage Blueprint run like 30 times, only got it on the last one
@@RealAsianRobot the thing is im a warframe veteran and this game somehow still has worse droprate.. i donnu its just off
@@GrayBeardFPS it's not for us haha. My whole community has the full range. Some folks just get real bad luck. It's how it is unfortunately :/
Can explain how to use excel to calculate 2%?
2% is just 2 out of 100 or you can simplify to 1 out ofn50
So you would roll a random number between 1 and 50 and see how many times you get a 1. Easy
Is all of these formulas based off if the value that is provided by the developers are correct? I understand the frustration people are having in regards to the loot, but where as people are calling to questions the legitimacy of numbers provided by the developers, most are just responded with "You don't know probability!". To me, all the explanations of probability only works if the base value provided is true. If the given percentage displayed on the screen is false, then people are justified in their anger. I am not a math person, I have no means of verifying probability, probably one of you can.
As far as I know, the numbers shown are 100% accurate and they have not skewed the numbers.
People calling it into question are hanging off the Maplestory problem, which is a real case, but that involved gacha lootboxes and not drop rates. You cannot BUY most of the stuff that drops anyway and I have tons of Energy Activators and Crystallization Catalysts (the stuff that you can buy). So yes, their numbers are correct!
This is a problem i complained about my first week, I understand the system, but if an item has 32%-38%, having to run that more than 3 times is rigged. This game makes you over grind. Example Sharen: Go hack a place, 20% chance to drop an Amorphus, then 5%-25% chance to get another one, then you open that for a chance at an item you want. This and Hard Mode Bosses being the endgame is not a good design. I will have all my Ultimate Character within 2 weeks if i grind hard and then most of the content is done with the game. Weapons will get nerfed so farming for them is not worth the full grind for them. Having to get gold for all the items and not having a proper system for it bad.
Not being rude but first of all 33% is 1/3. Did you actually watch the video?
You can flip a coin and it can land 12 times in a row on tails. Just because it's 50% doesn't mean you'll get it in two tries. It's literally what rng is.
You cam tell this player base is not anyone who plays arpg's lol. In diablo 2 there are items with less then a .05% to get. Path of exile, another f2p game has drop rates lower then 1%.
@@Sleepyjoe_69 The beginning of the video i understand which is why i mentioned i said i get what he is saying and stated some examples as how this systems are broken and rigged, so maybe i didn't articulate it well. My bad, this game will die once the hardcore players who have no content leave. You can spend all the money you won't it won't save the game unless you fix what is wrong.
@@birdz9252 I didn't see this. Well that's cool friend. I haven't spent any outside of 20 bucks. You do you do. Rng is simple if you understand probability. Also, tip never gamble, you'll always think the house is cheating you.
@@Sleepyjoe_69 My college did a lottery for my class and i didn't get into it even though i was the first one there lol. Anyway, update to my comment. I stopped playing the game about two weeks ago, As i was going for Ultimate Lepic i got really tired of stupid mechanics, not really good ways too get gold. Just got tired, I hope the season 1 is really good for everyone, Unfortunately I am done with this game which sucks because I do like these types of games.