UK Meltdown Continues
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- Опубликовано: 11 окт 2022
- This week has seen the Bank of England expanding their rescue efforts in the hope of stopping fire sales but then also announced yesterday that these measures will only run to the end of the week. Higher interest rates have been hitting the UK housing market and this means, unusually for the UK, that repaying the current 6% 5-year fixed mortgage rate will actually work out more expensive than paying rent.
The UK’s unemployment rate has fallen to its lowest since 1974 which might sound like positive news, but low unemployment also fuels inflation. So in this live stream, I will discuss what’s been happening in the UK, the problems that we face and what this means for investors.
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“A house divided unto itself can not stand” …. It was unforgivable for the Govt to blame the Bank of England…
Truss is acting like a child vomiting in a sweet shop
Antonmursid🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏❤
3 monetary faults and their fixes.
Our world has 3 fundamental practices that are problematic.
If we dont understand the root causes of a problem we will address the symptoms or actors, not the causes.
The 1st is that large private and Central banks have obtained the Exclusive franchise to create ALL new Currency as Debt, with interest attached.
An increasing population needs an increasing currency, but it is all created as debt bearing interest.
This indebts the whole world, every person, every government, in totally unpayable debts, enslaving us all to bankers through personal debt or ever increasing excessive taxation, surcharges, permits, licences, registrations, regulations, fees, rates, duties, fines, levies, adinfinitum, of which an increasing volume goes straight to the debt creators, who created it for free. (At zero cost to themselves.)
2nd. Virtually no limitation plus fractional banking allows banks to effectively create massive new Currency volumes, blowing massive bubbles (in housing/stocks) which devalues everyone's savings, work, pension by raising all prices. Meanwhile taxation creates artificial demand for fiat currency.
The fix ?
Go back to Sound Metalic Money and stop all banks and financial institutions loaning out more than they have on deposit. Return legal currency creation to national treasury departments with a zero Inflation policy.
This will not create inflation like some bankers/economists would like to have you think. It is not WHO creates currency that drives the constant devaluation of your money & work, it is THE VOLUME per population and productivity.
The banks increased the base currency supply by over 65 % since March 2020. This is further multiplied by fractional banking. You can't spend it off planet, and we've had no increase in population or productivity. How can it not devalue our savings, wages and retirement funds by at least 50% as it enters the economy ?
3rd. Fiat currency whether paper or digital has no intrinsic value, thus it cannot be used as a long term store of value, particularly in an ever expanding fiat system.
The fix ?
Return to constitutional Silver, Gold, Copper & Nickle currency, designated by weight not cents/dollars. These will find their own local value. These can't be printed to oblivion, have intrinsic value, and are a safeguard against selfish human nature. Continue to keep the manufacture of Gold & Silver rounds by private mints & foundries to help keep the government mints honest as to premiums.
Do not allow bankers and economists trained in the current system to con you into believing there isn't enough Metalic Money.
You mix 1% gold, 99% copper, you have a Gold backed currency. Same with Silver and Nickle.
Mint 10th ounce, 2 10ths, 5 10ths and 1 ounce. Never give it a 'value number,' which is always a lie. Give it its weight & purity, and let the market place decide what it will buy.
Call it 'slow money" like 'slow food.' It's slower for sure, but it's 10 times better for you.
Necessary to nationalise mines & pay shareholders out in metal.
Correct these 3 Principles and >80 % of a nation's problems would disappear. Do not allow your masters the Debt slave creator's to tell you it can't be done. It is easily done. Beware. The WEF wants you totally enslaved with Digital currency.
Convert your garbage fiat currency into Gold and Silver or prepare for destruction.
serves you right for falling for the same lies and electing the same liers time and time again
So, with all our money in the banks, why aren't they paying US interest.
After all, it's OUR money they are lending out to people and businesses.
Or should we just keep a minimal amount in the banks and keep it all under the mattress like my grandmother did?
Everywhere is having problems so people need to calm down. This is what happens when market place faces heavy interference for 2 years.
why are the banks being so greedy they aren't passing the interest rate rise to saving accounts....they are putting up rates on mortgages but not savings
There is so much turmoil in the world right now, my gut feel is that things are going to get significantly worse.
Lol the bible tells me..God bless
😱😱😱😱
3 monetary faults and their fixes.
Our world has 3 fundamental practices that are problematic.
If we dont understand the root causes of a problem we will address the symptoms or actors, not the causes.
The 1st is that large private and Central banks have obtained the Exclusive franchise to create ALL new Currency as Debt, with interest attached.
An increasing population needs an increasing currency, but it is all created as debt bearing interest.
This indebts the whole world, every person, every government, in totally unpayable debts, enslaving us all to bankers through personal debt or ever increasing excessive taxation, surcharges, permits, licences, registrations, regulations, fees, rates, duties, fines, levies, adinfinitum, of which an increasing volume goes straight to the debt creators, who created it for free. (At zero cost to themselves.)
2nd. Virtually no limitation plus fractional banking allows banks to effectively create massive new Currency volumes, blowing massive bubbles (in housing/stocks) which devalues everyone's savings, work, pension by raising all prices. Meanwhile taxation creates artificial demand for fiat currency.
The fix ?
Go back to Sound Metalic Money and stop all banks and financial institutions loaning out more than they have on deposit. Return legal currency creation to national treasury departments with a zero Inflation policy.
This will not create inflation like some bankers/economists would like to have you think. It is not WHO creates currency that drives the constant devaluation of your money & work, it is THE VOLUME per population and productivity.
The banks increased the base currency supply by over 65 % since March 2020. This is further multiplied by fractional banking. You can't spend it off planet, and we've had no increase in population or productivity. How can it not devalue our savings, wages and retirement funds by at least 50% as it enters the economy ?
3rd. Fiat currency whether paper or digital has no intrinsic value, thus it cannot be used as a long term store of value, particularly in an ever expanding fiat system.
The fix ?
Return to constitutional Silver, Gold, Copper & Nickle currency, designated by weight not cents/dollars. These will find their own local value. These can't be printed to oblivion, have intrinsic value, and are a safeguard against selfish human nature. Continue to keep the manufacture of Gold & Silver rounds by private mints & foundries to help keep the government mints honest as to premiums.
Do not allow bankers and economists trained in the current system to con you into believing there isn't enough Metalic Money.
You mix 1% gold, 99% copper, you have a Gold backed currency. Same with Silver and Nickle.
Mint 10th ounce, 2 10ths, 5 10ths and 1 ounce. Never give it a 'value number,' which is always a lie. Give it its weight & purity, and let the market place decide what it will buy.
Call it 'slow money" like 'slow food.' It's slower for sure, but it's 10 times better for you.
Necessary to nationalise mines & pay shareholders out in metal.
Correct these 3 Principles and >80 % of a nation's problems would disappear. Do not allow your masters the Debt slave creator's to tell you it can't be done. It is easily done. Beware. The WEF wants you totally enslaved with Digital currency.
Convert your garbage fiat currency into Gold and Silver or prepare for destruction.
‘Spending’ projections at 12:00 are highly flawed unless, or until natural gas stabilizes, also
70% S&P500, 30% Bitcoin, 0% Bonds. Been a rough year but sleeping OK.
So, basicly, the reason is that the UK has a nutcase government right now, or at least PM and Chancellor Kwarteng.
So many people thought that bond fund is a fixed income. Hopefully this is a wake up call for them. I will never ever buy a bond fund. Cash and equity only.
in case people haven’t figured it out yet, there’s not much money in the pension system. i wouldn’t count on getting a penny of it
So....beg the markets for debt restructure,anchor the pound back to gold,or the country won't be worth living in?
Amazing. For the first time in my life I am starting to really understand fixed income investing. Thank you.
Glad it was helpful!
An inconvient truth, that leaders of this world, in banking and in politics might be thinking "You'll own nothing and be happy", but don't realise that everybody who will belong to that class will not contribute to the system, or at very least should not be expected to contribute. There is no free lunch, there never will be.
no bright future there, save your investments from western world and surrounding.
Singapore, our former tiny island of Sumatra, will soon rejoin Indonesia again after been donated by our Ancestors in the past to the Brits.
no bright future there, save your investments from western world and surrounding.
Karma Never Sleep, they (UK, Europe, USA, and so on) never been real rich and will always be where they belong the real third world countries.
Indonesia the very center of the equator line was and will always be the real global superpower.
Soon the world map will be modified to the real size scaling, real Indonesia is much larger than UK+Europe+Middle East combined not the present too small scaling they've been drawing on purpose since Mercator 1569.
Indonesia has 3 timezones: GMT +7, +8, +9
Gunung Padang, Just 25000 years old pyramid older than Egypt after all so many times I wrote Egyptian and Greek were just adopting what we had especially before Toba Supervolcano Sumatra erupted 75000 years ago (larger than Yellowstone USA resulting today world's largest volcanic lake Toba lake of Sumatra with length around 100 kilometers), all Indo around the world (Indo Persia, Indo America, Indo Europe, etc even Batak of Bulgaria is Batak of Sumatra) came from Indo Nesos (Indus/Hindu/Hindia Islands = present Indonesia, Indo were from Indonesia to allover Europe then only India today most significant has preserved as India is far from the equator line and more than 80% natural resources in India up-to-date come from Indonesia from coconuts to many kind of wood to wooden furniture to spices as India is a total mess yet very limited agricultural space because of overpopulation and Hindu today wasn't real Hindu back then) even Indonesia on present world map is too small since Mercator 1569 this very center of human civilization exactly on the center of the equator line is the real Atlantis to put onto Europe is like from UK to half of Russia.
The highest humidity (too many water in the air) has decayed the artifacts faster than in any part of the world.
But the spirits/soul never die, I am one of the kings and queens descendants.
Pension providers should not be involved in margins calls
The Elephant in the room for me is interest rates averaging below 1% for 12 years. This has been a historic low, never seen before. Now that they are on the rise people are in a state of shock.
I don't a great deal about interest rates, but I would like to what damage and where the damage has been done to the economy?
Excellent explanation ,we are facing similar circumstances in Australia with climate & esg madness.Will look at pension craft , thanks bob
Of course we are getting two conflicting messages. We've been getting conflicting messages between different gov officials and between gov and the media for years now. When we don't we get complete lockstep.
Hypernormalisation....
You've put in a real shift for us over the past few weeks, Ramin - thanks so much!
Thanks @AlexW my pleasure! Ramin
Thx for the explanation. I was curious what was going on.
Glad to help @J W
Thanks so much for breaking this down and explaining the contagion. Shocked as to how little the BOE have actually bought after all the 65billion headlines.
Well they were trying to offload the things after a decade of QE not buy more!!!
Thank you and we appreciate you here in the USA
Love your videos! It’s certainly one of the most sold and educational financial channels I’ve come across!! Thanks a lot for your time
Awesome, thank you @Navid R
If interest rates are put up to historically normal levels the the value of a 68 year 3.5% bond is obviously going to fall. There seems to have been some assumption that the free money and low interest rates was going to keep going indefinitely.
I can see why Andrew Baily wants to stop buying bonds as soon as possible because he has a target on inflation to maintain. All the new money the Bank of England are creating to buy these bonds is going into the economy and causing inflation, this is the opposite of his objective.
Fantastic content over and over. Thanks
I believe there is a misunderstanding. The transaction value of the bond is mixed with the fact that this bond will be repaid at maturity. There are always people who want to buy or sell these bonds. The market value which is sadly dropping very low does not affect the annual interest or the fact that the initial money invested will be refunded.
Right, which makes me think whether these bonds are a bargain buy now that they are at such a low price? Though I'm not sure how much further they could go down if interest rates and inflation keep going up.
I never truly appreciated how much content you produce till now
Thnx
Glad you enjoy it @Jimbo Jimbo
Of course they are going to step in!! YES they are ! They cannot have the alternatives .
The maximum weekly state pension is £141 in the UK, £507 in Germany, £304 in France, and £513 in Spain.
Thanks for the considered, calm information.
Ramin would make a fine Chancellor of the Exchequer
I learned something new, actually many things. Amazing content as always, Ramin.
Related to your mention on uk/us property market, can I suggest you check out the Australian and particularly New Zealand property market, as I believe it is really a canary in the coal mine situation for many countries that have been fed low cost debt.
Maybe in new zeland they are going better. The point is unmeasurable.
@34:15 small point, but you only need a 25% gain to reverse a 20% loss.
Thank you for explaining this, I finally understand the depths of this governments incompetence
Tell me they are just waiting bubies to explode.
its not incompetence, its been done on purpose, they want u to think its incompetence. they r trying to get us to accept global governance via private public partnership and get rid of governments
I think it’s a good time to short UK property
Thank you so much
This is the sound of sanity
Great explanation. Thanks for doing this.
As a young person and someone on the housing market, this is the best news we can hope for. We need armageddon like we had in the late 80/90's so we have a chance to live a life without debt eventually. The horror of a 50 year mortgage would give me nightmares.
T Patel : Look at the Crash in 1929 1930 , I think that's is more Likely , IMHO .
Good luck getting your first home, but I hope prices don’t go up by more than inflation once you have bought!
If you don’t lose your job ;)
@@bspiderm lucky for me I work in an industry where people usually turn their noses up at. Even if they were on their last pennies they wouldn't put in a hard day's work so I think im quite safe.
@@looneytoons171 that’s what they all say ;)
What about the inflation ? Why would anyone want to buy uk bonds when the yield is far lower than the inflation rate??
Thanks!
Thanks @David Frick
No third party risk in physical Gold.
Why isn’t the pound on melt down 🤷♂️ 1.14 euro/ 1.116 on dollar as I type.
Thank you for doing this Ramin, been waiting for your breakdown, so much going on!
Yeas. It is. I know out
So it was the most shocking rise in 30yrs... but the government's mini budget was not exactly that radical?
Thank you Ramin... we can totally understand..thank you for the regular update 👍
My pleasure 😊 @Vinay Shenvi
I hope the PM & Chancellor are watching!
07:25 Ah, so here is the problem.
Hi Ramin, really appreciate your videos, thank you.
very good explanation
Enjoyed the laid back presentation of the UK/Market Meltdown...I have to say though that even if it is by default...it is better to let interest rates rise higher now rather than later even though it will be painful for some ..In the West we now live in a world where it seems people must not go under but the price we all pay for that is the evil of inflation which hurts the poor the most ...If economic crisis were allowed to play themselves out ...although for some as in the early 1990s it would be painful proper price stability and growth could then be restored with rising living standards for all ... Trying to save to many people in the life boat only ends up meaning that everyone else in the life boat will end up drowning as well !!!!
Any possible action seems stinkier that all the ones before.......
Best explanation of what is and has happened, on the internet, brilliant work, thank you really wanted to know about the pension investment strategy that I had never heard of before the last ten days and I thought , just maybe I knew a bit, makes you wonder what else we/ I have never heard of that is round the corner , hold on tight eh. Was looking at moving house but have decided to put it off for 5 or 6 years. Shame as had found the right house, but way too risky even within the last 6 weeks. Anyway awesome work thank you.
Thank you Ramin. Invaluable summary and analysis. I learnt a lot. Much appreciated!
Glad it was helpful @Jennifer Fisher
Different versions of the pension problem around. One says its margin calls on leveraged gilts. Another says its to do with interest rate swops??
Thank you so much for your analysis Ramin Nakisa. It was technical yet accessible. Today all eyes are upon Britain so it is very helpful to find such a rational and informative overview of the issue. Keep up the good work!
You are very welcome @David Frick
Disfunctional debts market is just le début, debts market is a leveraged based system on rates going lower. Time is running out things are breaking
How do you buy a single gilt? I tried and failed!
Many thanks Ramin - always a beacon of light in these dark times.
Glad you enjoyed it @JohninRosc
Would be interesting to see an update on this because my understanding is that the bank of England withdrew it's propping up of pension funds on the 14th October.
Why don't the government and the BOE work together for the benefit of the country as a whole. How can you have one group just doing whatever they want without taking into account what the other group will have to do to mitigate the damage. Seems nonsenical to me. Never seen any business work like this.
I was hoping you put a video out explaining what happened. Too many news outlets or youtubers just skipped over it labeling it as 'not relevant, too complicated'.
Proof?
Retire early they said...it'll be fun they said. Well they never said anything about stocks crashing, nor bonds down the toilet. Oh, and a pesky nuclear war thing, it's all so bloody tiresome.
Well, actually they did. You are repeatedly warned that investments can go down as well as up, and you can receive less than you put it.
Not that boomers listen, too busy watching Come Dancing and looking for Campervans.
I’m not sure if your description of LDI is accurate. They were swaps used to help match duration to reduce interest rate risks.
Hi Ramin, I think your chart showed that the BoE buying intervention has not stabilized yeilds and the reason was that the government fiscal policy just does not add up. That bring the case if they continue buying after Friday it will not ' fix' the problem because as you said the Government is not backing down on their fiscal corporation tax or NI plans
The problem is a FIAT currency problem..the fuse was lit in 1971 & the mandarins think our debt based system based on nothing but belief can go on forever, by forever pulling currency from the future..frankly I’m amazed it’s gone on this long..the chickens are coming home to roost 🤷♂️
So the BOE decision was responsible for 20 hours of movements but government's decision was responsible for 5 days?
KwasiCoin, to replace Gilts: for those for which stability is not so much an issue, as merely an irrelevance. A super video, as usual.
Sorry i admit im financially illiterate are premium bonds at risk?
Trend following models are best diversification bet in this market. CTAs managed futures etc. low or negative correlated to equities
Lets get real for a moment, its not the UK government that put the pensions near default, its THEIR OWN LEVERAGE that did this. The fact that a pension fund would EVER take out leverage on a BOND portfolio is insane, its like they never even ran the numbers on what increasing rates would do. This is criminal mismanagement of retirement assets. If bonds wouldn't pay enough to make the payouts, they should have announced that upfront, and worked out a solution, maybe benefit cuts, maybe more stocks, this problem is happening all over the world, but levering up to the max was definitely the wrong decision, unless they were counting on Bailout Nation to cover them, when the inevitable happened...
Great content.
thanks @Lin Zhang
People have no idea of the bond risk in a rising rate environment.
What risk is that? If you're holding to maturity it's irrelevant.
@@tastypymp1287 the risk is in the opportunity cost.
You are very generous in giving everyone your informed opinions, thank you
I am glad you find it helpful @colin fraser
There are a number of players in this debacle and it should not be overlooked that as well as the BOE and the GOV that the OBR hasn't covered itself in glory by not criticising the BOE. The OBR cannot criticise only one side when it is clear where the majority of the fault lies.
When Mohammed el Arian was criticising the FED RES about being late to the party as early as October 2021 then it was clear that most other economies would also be late to act. The only difference between other economies was the amount some of them had borrowed to support their economies through the COVID crisis.
If the OBR does not have a remit to comment on BOE policy then it is becoming increasingly clear that the voter on the street is not getting a GOV that runs the country. The voter is getting a GOV that ultimately is subserviant to the central Banks.
Thanks for your research to keep us all informed. Unfortunately we are now in my opinion in the final stages of a plan to draw all heavily indebted economies into an IMF /world bank digital currency that will introduce irrevocable inflation levels and mass hardship - worse than the 1970's 'rescue'
it def feels like something is brewing behind the scenes. Esp with the US trillions in debt
Maybe you should do a video on how the BoE screwed up by not raising interest rates over the last three years and only woke up to reality this year!!
The whole world has volatile bonds and equities not just the UK!
Which central bank would have raised interest rates in an environment where the entire world was concerned with how Covid was going to crash the world economy?
@@gabrielsoo2939 Central banks have been in denial over inflation (remember Jerome Powell’s “…inflation is transitory..” nonsense through all of last year?)
The BoE has ONE job- to keep inflation under check!
All described on the Duran channel.
What I haven't seen mentioned yet - When pensions funds start failing those schemes are going to end up on the government pension protection scheme. Means the government will have to issue yet more gilts to cover the shortfall of the pension schemes that fail = doom loop. Plus a significant number of pension scheme members will get a 10% haircut on the pension they expected to get.
I think he has limited understanding of what is going to happen.
Is that run by the Govt . I thought all pension providers paid a levy to be members , effectively insuring each other.
This is great 👍
If you cannot service your debt you go bankrupt. This applies to any government. The problem is not Truss. It is Bailey of the Bank of England. He should have increased the bank rate of interest gradually over the past 10 years instead of reducing it and using QE to make up the difference.
The UK is royally stuffed. Short sterling.
Minus 1% on base rate is not a worth while tax cut for most people. The damage is coming from the reduction in corporation tax? not sure that's really inflationary for CPI, many companies will not make any extra profit due to recession. Others will not spend any bottom line improvement or will carry out share buy backs. Only actual investment in the company or significant increase in head count is inflationary. I'm very sceptical that this will happen on any serious scale.
The biggest problem is that young smart brits don't see any future in the UK. They move out to places with better climate, infrastructure, and cheaper life. They don't want to stuck on some small island full of greedy old people.
Brits should go out and cleanse their political system in the style of French Revolution. Get rid of this trash generation of politicians!
Thanks for the explanation. Who would Rishi have had as chancellor, do you know ?
New subscriber here, really enjoying the content.
It worries me that Andrew Baillie is the governor of the BoE ( Jay Powell is a genius compared to him).
Everyone would like to avoid dealing with emergencies, well... that's what happens when you put too much trust in the financial system, governments and CBs
I know the usual introductory details of bonds, but the practical side does not seem to be covered anywhere I can find. For example, in your happy returns pod cast you mention 4% returns on one year UK gilts. I can see an instrument with the description 0.125% 31/01/2023 GBP1000 in my SIPP. For a traditional gilt, I understand that coupons are paid on the 22 January and 22 July, or the next business day. Since the maturation date is 0.125% 31/01/2023, does that mean that all of the coupons have been paid and the best outcome is getting nothing but my money back? It's these kind of details that don't seem to be described anywhere. Perhaps you could record a buyers guide for gilts?
Satisfactory.
well with interest rates you lose over 5% every year with inflation. on bonds. it's simple bonds are no longer a safe secure holding. commodities are much better without price controls.
Great stuff as always. I'm working on a video now on what I think will be the final, big leg down for Crypto in OCT/NOV. Generational buy opportunities incoming! Appreciate the content, keep it up.
Are we looking at the end of pensions?
UPDATE: Today - Fri 14 Oct - Kwarteng flies home a day early from finance meetings in US and Truss has called a press conference this afternoon. Watch for all change again.
We are being reset .
How else would the new algorithms be allowed to do their job .
BOE money printers go brrrrrrrr
Stark to compare BTC and UK bond on same chart!!
ten years ago before the financial crisis a pound was about 2 $ now its 1 we face real collapse we borrowed more and more and now investors will pick the carcass charging ever more interest, i have no idea how bad it will get but nothing is impossible fifty qiuid a pint, or food shortages, property collapse who knows , to even sugest it was madness a few weeks ago,
Thanks mate Great show, New Zealand is also being destroyed,
Unfortunately all by Design.
I love the information and detail in this channel. But some technical, rather than financial, criticism can you turn on rnnoise if you're using obs or some other noise cancellation? it will reduce the mouse clicks and background noise.
No. You need to grow tolerance rather than trying to shape the world to fit you.