Which Senior Tories Could Lose their Seats?
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- Опубликовано: 2 окт 2024
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In this video, we’re going to have a look at exactly what to look out for on election night with each of the political parties, before moving on and having a look at which big Tory beasts to keep an eye on tonight
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“A portillo moment refers to any senior figure who unexpectedly loses their seat”
“We’re expecting a number of portillo moments”
🤯
Always expect the unexpected
Thank God this is the top comment. I needed to know that someone else heard that
Fingers crossed
Exactly right. The exit poll confirmed that the average swing was 11% but in some very safe seats it was a lot less (ie Liverpool where Tories had no votes to lose anyway) and in some marginals a lot more. Portillo knew an 18% swing was needed in Enfield Southgate to topple him so he was perfectly sanguine and indeed was one of the pundits on BBC Election Special. It was only when he got to his count and saw the nervous looks of the party workers that he started to sweat and then the absolutely unimaginable came to pass. THAT is the essence of ‘The Portillo Moment’
Certified portillo moment
The real question is who will gain Sunaks seat, Niko Omilana or Count Binface?
Please let it be binface
@@Mike-bh4bh Honestly, that would be the biggest political upset since Martin Bell
Hopefully a 30% turnout and 50% of them voting for Binface. Can't think of a better way to show the absolute disgust of the electorate than that (not that any of the elites currently in power or soon to be give a toss)
Imagine seeing binface sitting in the commons 😂
@@flamepillarrengoku
Would be fitting of the absolute clown show it is
Putting portaits up of 8 Tory leaders and then only discussing 3 of them :(
Yeah, I was expecting them to cover a lot more figures
kind of expected it cause its 9 minutes, still a little disappointed
Well, in fairness he did have a 2-minute commercial that he was in a hurry to get to. 🤣🤣
Thanks, comments like this make it easier to avoid wasting time on clickbait-y videos
i think they just discussed the most vulnerable besides the position of PM
Really hoping Jacob Rees Mogg gets kicked out 😅
He's probably the one guy that won't!
We're in his constituency and polling is currently pushing labour well ahead of him as it stands
It would be more surprising if he kept his seat. He's a dead man walking as far as this election goes.
Getting that moron out of power would be immensely satisfying. The fact he’s lasted as long as he has…
@@ThePrinceOrtmayer alot of MRP polls think he's done for
I'm in Sunak's constituency. My polling station was absolutely rammed at 9.30 with queues down the street. It's never been anything like that busy in the last 42 years. I expect he'll keep his seat but that 30k majority may be down to a couple of thousand.
No everyone's making there vote Count!
What?
Are you voting for him?
@@SuperMickyMc count binface mate
@@TheWebstaff’Their’ vote Count.
Recyclons dont accept inproper use of there/their.
Sunak losing his seat would be AMAZING
❤❤
Please, please, PLEASE have Jacob Rees-Mogg lose his seat! I want to see that smug, entitled, arrogant smile he perpetually has on disappear from his face.
I'm reminded of a clip from QI.
Mogg was out canvassing accompanied by his nanny. When ridiculed for it, his response was something like 'you only mock because she is my nanny, you would not mock if I were accompanied by my valet'.
How can anyone so incredibly out of touch with how life actually works get elected?
I swear, too many people vote for the 'funny man' rather than a competent politician.
get Rishi out - vote Count Binface
what happened to lord buckethead, is Count Binface his younger relative? ;D
@@MrLordLowbob Allegedly the Count has had to rebrand due to copyright issues surrounding the name Lord Buckethead
@@MrLordLowbobAccording to Count Binface; he had to change personas and drop Lord Buckethead after running afoul of the planet “Copyright”.
@@MrLordLowbobthere was an 80's cartoon who shared his name and asked him to change it.
@@Praevalidum did you watch Matt Parkers video as well or is that a real quote of him?
As an American, my fear is that Labour will forget how lucky they are and not immediately pass proportional representation and single transferable voting. Unlike in the USA they can do this by statute, while in the USA we'd have to amend the constitution to get rid of entrenched GOP minority rule. Starmer needs to remember this election's result were caused by a once in a century perfect alignment of the planets.
They have put forward plans to push back the parliaments summer break so they could be planning something to get done when they would be on holiday
If we are expecting it, is it a portillo moment by that definition?
We might, but it depends on if the candidate expects it or not.
@@ThePageofVoidI think all the Tory's potentially have an incling
We're expecting a lot of Tory losses, but it would still be a Portillo moment if a popular-with-Tory-voters candidate lost in what's usually considered a safe seat, for instance.
I would qualify losing in any 'safe seat' a portillo moment
By election night, quite a few people realised Portillo's seat was in play. Back in January, lots of people thought 'the next election' would leave the Conservatives with a minority government.
Aussie here. We had a sitting Prime Minister lose his seat during an election (John Howard 2007). It was awesome 🎉
My best birthday present ever…
Tho damn it was good to see Abbott lose his seat too. Wish the UK would keep him.
It was a terrible day for our country and signalled the beginning of the era of incompetent politicians that is still occurring to this day.
@@bernardkealey6449 old toe knee ab butt
@@bernardkealey6449 Because your political class is so great now.🙄
@@marnuscoreyempanadaslooseb6760 True. These people are nuts.
Come on Britain. Let's get the Tories into third place 💪🏻
Sorry that's too high!
ZERO SEATS
Behind anyone but Reform 😂😂😂
@@a.demifemiflapo5795 or green
This American is crossing my finger for y’all!
Let's keep it simple, every Tory seat would be gone
I want Sunak to lose his seat
Current predictions put that a little under 50/50
Your spelt "head" wrong.
I honestly don't know how anyone could vote for that man. He's an out-of-touch toff who has never done anything for the people of Ripon. Parachuted in by the Tories who are so disrespectful that they didn't even select a Yorkshire person for the seat.
@@Kj16V😂 no that ship's already sailed. Lost his head months ago
As a doctor, Im more interested in Hunt losing his seat. Otherwise even as a non cabinet minister, he'll worm his way onto the health and social care committee again
Count Binface for the win in Richmond & Northallerton.
Sunak needs to get Binned! 🗑
Make your vote Count!
Vote for eggs benedict - get breakfast done
This is our Bindependence Day! 👽
My immediate boss in Westminster some years back was Portillo’s principal private secretary in the 90s and headed his office for several years. He said that hands down he was the nicest politician he had ever worked for (and he had worked for many some of whom he was less than complimentary about)
I can believe that. I have met a few.
If Mogg loses his seat it will go to show how bad people think they have been
Well done for putting the “Chancellor” before the “Hunt” - many journalists have tripped up over that. Sometimes it felt like the Conservatives gave him ministries that begin with a ‘c’ purely as a joke 😂
I can not wait for tonights election coverage.
Hoping theres a few twists to make it more entertaining. Would be hilarious if many known politicians(for all parties) don't win their seats
@@calahoon22 Really, so you see this as mere entertainment. You want good MP's from Labour and the Lib Dems to lose so you can have a good laugh.
revolution wouldn't be televised lol
Hi Malaysians here,Where I Can find live coverage 2024 UK GE elections?
Putting James Cleverly in the Braintree constituency is just taking the piss
Huh? He is the Braintree MP. Why is that talking the piss?
@MikeAG333 his name vs the name of the constituency
@@MikeAG333 He's James CLEVER-ly in BRAIN-tree constituency.
@@Dendarang It was the word "putting" which I was querying. He has been the Braintree MP for 9 years, so he hasn't been "put" anywhere.
Why wouldn't sunak want to lose his seat? He'd have to serve as an MP
Much less embarassing to win his seat and retire quietly in a year
No he doesn't, he can and will resign as an MP almost straight away so he can move his family to America. More than likely already booked his flight and school for his girls. He has made as much as he can from us, smash and grab.
Still gets his PM pension, retiring to the backbenches still gives him MP salary / expenses with little requirement to do anything
@@Iymarra He made 120 million doing nothing last year from his shares. And when he moves to America he'll make his yearly MP's salary just about every week from just being there. He'll lose money staying here as an MP.
When I was just outside the poll
I asked the electorate, what will it be
Will it be Labour ? Will it be Tory ?
Here’s what they said to me
Qué será, será
Whatever will be, will be
Two cheeks of the same arse you see
Qué será, será
What will be, will be
Jacob Rees-Mogg being removed by the Lib Dems would be a classic moment.
A "Portillo moment" is when it's unexpected.
Love to see the phrase "Portillo moment" replaced with "Sunak moment".
Politics is pantomime for the media to play in for a captive audience.
By definition, we are expecting and predicting these moments, therefore they arent Portillo moments. Rishi is possibly the ONLY major player who's loss would fit this definition of a Portillo moment, and even then, its already been prediceted enough times it may not count.
I'm desperately hoping got sunak, braverman, Badenock, Mordunt and Ress-mogg to lose their seats.
I'm disappointed that Exit Polls have the Tories winning triple digit seats. How can you vote for a party that has more Jeremy's than a 'corn' website.
If reform win seats, this country is dumber than I feared.
Will poor old Michael Portillo lose this epitaph and be replaced by a ‘Sunak moment’.
I think a Sunak moment would be going from Government to 3rd largest party. Or maybe a Macron
@@Septimus_ii Only if the copyright Asquith and George share has expired by now.
@@wildfire9280102 Years... It has!
Wait... isn't that the guy who did the "Great Railway Journeys" series?
Indeed he is.
I'm starting to get a little scared of these landslide predictions. Not because I wouldn't like to see the Tories kicked in the teeth, but because I fear so many people think it's a done deal and don't vote, and we end up with a hung Parliament
People should just use their votes building up smaller parties and independants that are purer for next elections
The main two parties are deeply immoral
Do you think it's useful to vote for pro Palestinian independents?@@KarakuraNinja
@@pyrogunslinger1877 yes
What the hell is with the spam bot comments 💀
What comments? The video has only been up for 20 minutes I don't see any spam bot comments
@@jtf5332 That’s exactly what a spam bot would say! J’accuse! 😂 /s
@@jtf5332 I reported them 🙄
@@jtf5332 There are, like, 2 comments praising this video about how good/artistic it is. Those profiles have nude profile pictures or something, so yeah, it's spam, but it's not as sensational as that comment is making it out to be.
@@jtf5332 there were two, you obviosly didn't see them. They are there everyday and always the first to post.
I hope lots and lots of them lose their seats. As for Sunak, I think he wants to lose, he's probably already booked his flight to the USA and already enrolled his kids in private school there.
I would genuinely not be suppriesed at this point if it turns out he has a large bet on himslef loosing.
If that`s the case, then it would be funny if he kept his seat and was prevented from leaving.
I’d find Labour vs LibDem in government and opposition a fascinating possibility.
What would that dynamic look like?
who's here after the bastard named Jacob Rees-Mogg lost his seat?
Every one in fishy rishi's constituency needs to make there vote Count!
I always thought a Portillo Moment was when you soiled yourself while eating a large Italian beef sandwich
My pants will be getting sticky tonight watching senior Tory after senior Tory losing their seats.
Revolting
@@Rampart.X Yes, they are.
Revolting....but relatable
Don't get too excited. The election has been characterised by antipathy towards the Tories but not really a strong feeling towards Labour. The Greens, the Lib Dems and (unfortunately) Reform are the parties that inspire passionate feelings.
It's possible that the landslide predictions overestimated the number of Labour voters and the results will be a lot less dramatic than most people expect. I certainly don't see the Tories winning another majority government but I'm also not 100% sure Labour will get that historic landslide victory. They're playing it very safe in a political climate where people are increasingly fed up with the status quo and want something very different.
If the historic wipeout does happen after all, celebrate it however you want. I'm just saying, part of me worries that too many people are going to take it as a given that Labour will win a landslide for that landslide to actually materialise.
Save your celebrations for after it's happened. I think there's a risk that people become so convinced a Labour victory is inevitable that it doesn't actually happen.
Turned out to be the best thing that ever happened to Portillo…He got a life and became a popular TV travel presenter.
Portilo moments are about to be known as Sunak moments.
ZERO SEATS. ZERO SEATS. ZERO SEATS!
Christ, Hunt always looks like a possessed ventriloquist's dummy, doesn't he?
Vote out to help out peeps, we can do it 🗳️🎉
Proportional representation would be better. Pretty much every system is better than fptp
names in a hat would be better than fptp
Just restore the Kings power, Charles and William seem like OK chaps at least.
Two weeks ago on his GBN show Portillo himself said that a 'Portillo Moment' has to be unexpected and that because the Tories were going to lose badly the only real Portillo moment would be for Sunak to lose. PM for PM.
Honestly, I fully suspect the Conservative Party ends up doing what the Progressive Conservatives did in Canada in 1993: drop from government down to only two seats....
In Australia, sitting PM John Howard lost his seat in 2007.
Same happened in Canada with Kim Campbell in 1993, though she was only PM because Brian Mulroney resigned about 6 months prior and "fed her to the wolves"
I don't drink alcohol generally but if poonak loses his seat, a celebratory glass of wine will be in order 😅
America's birthday is a beautiful day indeed!
Zero Seats
I wonder how many people will call in sick tomorrow due to staying up all night to watch the fun and games?
4:02 perhaps the only example of the first-past-the-post system being a good voting system
Steven Twigg who unseated Portillo was the flat mate of Luke Akehurst, the Labour Friends of Israel coordinator and late of the NEC, who is today standing himself after all those years, Twigg only stood as nobody wanted the poisoned chalice of a top Tory seat.
please kick out Rees-Mogg
5:17 Arthur Balfour lost his Manchester East seat in 1906
All of them, with any luck.
Count Binface needs your vote! Make it count!
Now THAT'S a grimace LOL
As a Canadian, I should point out that we've had at least one Prime Minister lose his seat in a federal election. The Prime Minister was William Lyon Mackenzie King and the election was in the 1920s if I recall correctly. Another member of his party who had been re-elected stepped down from his newly won seat, forcing a by-election, and King ran in his place, successfully, restoring him to Parliament. (I assume the MP who stood down for him was amply rewarded for his trouble.) We've also had new leaders selected for parties when that new leader was not in Parliament and then the same thing happened: someone in a safe seat stepped down, the new Leader ran in his place, and then entered Parliament that way. The last such instance that comes to mind was Jean Chretien 30 odd years ago. I don't remember it being considered scandalous at the time.
Binface is splitting the vote in Richmond.
Bindependence Day!
First past the post system is just horrible though. Needs to change because it’s one of the worst voting systems out there in terms of representation.
There is irony in the statement "We are expecting a number of portillo moments"
I just spent too long trying to figure this out so worth adding that Jeremy Hunt's constituency South West Surrey is now Godalming and Ash after the boundary change. Yougov exit poll predicts a 51% Lib Dems win
We can only hope.
Are they still Portillo moments if they are expected?...
Arthur Balfour lost his seat in 1906 - Rishi Sunak may become the second pm to lose his seat
Can two opposition parties go into coalition to take the official opposition role from the biggest opposition party??
As an unfortunate constituent of cleverly I pray he is kicked out
The tories wont do as badly as polls suggest unfortunately. Polls nowadays are often done online of via cold calls. Many of the older generation won’t use these methods and they also tend to vote more Tory. I could be wrong but polls are not a guarantee. If you want rid of the tories, dig out your ID, get down to your polling place and make it happen.
Not related, but I'm grateful that the cactus is back in its proper place and not teetering on the edge of the shelf. Happy Independence Day from across the pond! Be glad that even your crappy politicians are at least coherent and/or not overtly trying to overthrow the government.
Labour won or Conservatives Lost there is a huge difference that will be talked about and analysed for years.
its farage unhappy with snk as a pm
The Portillo moment never gets old!
He will lose it
I've been able to do this since I was 12
American here: I assume that if Sunak loses his seat then he's out as PM?
If the party loses he’s not pm anymore…
Cleverly in Brain(tree) is an oxymoron. James Stupid is more appropriate
Oh please God make this happen.
From an outside perspective, all I can say is good luck Britain, you’re going to need it
Will Rishi Sunak become the first sitting PM to be defeated in his own constituency? This is kinda exciting.
Spoiler alert… Count Binface didn’t win 😓 Lettuce Truss got a slow clap though 😂
Love the "Armgeddon" typo :D
Rishi "Half Mast" Sunak to lose his seat to Count Binface!🤣
If they are expected, by definition they are not Portillo moments!
The fact that Michael Portillo's father was a Spanish exile implies heavily that he changed the pronunciation of his last name for political reasons. Oh yeah hearing Portillo pronouce that way is actually messing with me
This is the last day of a Conservative Government EVER!! The next election, Reform UK will be the biggest party & Nigel Farage WILL BE Prime Minister. A pity it's going to take another 5 years but we can wait & then help him get our country back.
6 Hours to go.
After this election is over we might be looking at a formal integration of the Conservatives and Reform party like the one that happened in Canada with the CRAP party. They later changed the name to simply the Conservative Party.
How about we wait till tonight and we will know if he looses his seat
Rees-Mogg, Jenspiv, Truss, BadEnooch, Patel, Williams, Wiiiliamsom, IDS, Baker, Shoeneck, Francois, Shapps unseated please
Highly disappointed that you guys didn't cover Indian general elections at all!
I'm particularly hopeful of Hunt losing - he just has one of those faces.
I wonder why margins are usually measured by vote count, not vote share. As a non-Brit, I’d imagine the latter is a lot more intuitive.
This election looks like it’s going to have a couple more parallels to the 1906 election other than the worst ever results for the Tories.
Labour has been described (though to the disagreement of many) to be “quietly radical”. The Liberals weren’t then described as such, but they certainly did turn out that way after the election, enacting a far-reaching social reform agenda as well as raising taxes on land and income when they hadn’t even campaigned on such radical departures when they went against everything laissez-faire they stood for up to that point.
I want Torys to not even be the opposition, 4th place sounds like a good spot for them
no seats sounds better
@@alansharman3644 I agree, but we do have to be realistic here
@@flamepillarrengoku
Dream on
Worth a comment that this polling methodology is still relatively new, and still is based on models of demographics, extrapolated to the populace on the basis of expectations of "what matters" to the polling agency when it comes to voting blocks.
If they can't measure it, they haven't included it in their models.
Resentment, nihilism, eutopianism, swinging doubt, reactive emotion, etc.
Also, in many cases the "don't know yet" simply wasn't included.
There's every chance that the polls are wrong, at least in terms of seats transfering.
SNP Independence dream on , no chance knocked back by the tories , a new Labour government a certainty in July 2024 , SNP Independence knocked back again , just accept you are British yes part of the UK 🏴🏴🇬🇧
Still boggles my mind that UK prime ministers have never lost their seat... Canadian ones have done that fairly often, and it didn't even hurt some of their careers that much. All while running the same basic system.
Lets have this conversation in 10 years time when the rolls are reversed
The TL;DR Paradox: you are expecting something that is by definition unexpected 😂