Ottawa Real Estate Market Update | September 2024 | 4 Myths Debunked!

Welcome to your September 2024 Ottawa Real Estate Market Update! In this video, we break down August's mixed market performance and dive into predictions from Canada’s Big 6 banks on where interest rates might be headed. We’re busting myths and, for all the data lovers out there, introducing a new stat to our updates!
Chapters:
Special Announcement : 00:31
Freehold Stats : 02:04
Sales to New listing Ratio - 06:49
Condo Stats : 10:10
Where Do Banks See Interest Rates Going: 13:20
4 Myths Debunked: 14:38
#ottawarealestate #ottawarealtors #ottawarealestateinvesting

[@FatihaArt]

Thanks so much for the valuable videos. Do you have any insights about where the Orleans RE market is heading? Prices do not seem to be bulging at all. Townhouse prices are still double what they were pre-pandemic!

[@SergePapineauRealEstate]

Thanks for the kind words, I'm glad you're enjoying the videos! Orleans has a bit more inventory than the other major suburbs and prices are generally lower there than in places like Kanata, Riverside South, Barrhaven and Findlay Creek. There's still a lot of development land available around the boundary and there's a strong push to bring a major employer to the area to occupy future commercial space that would be built around the LRT stations. Overall I think it's a great area with very good value and a bright future :)

[@dirtlump]

Crash/correction.... insufficient servicing gdi(gross domestic income) derivable from within Canadian gdp into recession to maintain current Valuations.... a gdp I may add that was being maintained 10+ years by no more than unprecedented low-rate fueled liquidity injecting false speculative demand into price discovery elevation unsupported within median income potential anyways ?
No matter.... heading into still 4.2 Million Mortgages renewals (700,000 NEGAMS) through Q4/2026 all occurring at higher rates than initiation.... the 'hit' incoming to Canadian consumer spending reliant gdp/gdi derivable is significant at ANY BoC rate maintained positive above the zero bound against the 2% inflation target..... and intending equally significant loss attenuation across Banking/Financial system asset "chattel" valuations now bound to correct 'mark to market' in attenuation.

[@SergePapineauRealEstate]

I get what you're saying (well sort of, I suspect you're smarter than I am) but I would push back on a few things. First, current valuations are based almost entirely on the supply and demand dynamic and the job market in Ottawa for the middle and upper-middle class is unusually stable and "recession-resistant". Second, while we did see some speculation here during the peak, it wasn't anywhere near the levels seen in markets like Toronto, Vancouver, etc. Builders in Ottawa generally include a clause in their purchase agreements that bars assignment sales, which greatly reduces the amount of wild speculation you see here compared to other markets. Finally, the current price of housing compared to median income is absolutely a challenge here but it's one that mostly impacts first time buyers. Anyone who already owns a home, especially if they purchased more than 4 years ago, is likely to be sitting on a sizeable amount of equity which allows them to move up if/when they choose. The drop off in sales volume we've seen over the last 2 years when compared to pre-covid figures can be explained, at least in part, by a lower number of first-time buyers entering the market than before however volume overall this year has remained healthy. I don't think we see a crash here. Whether we see a correction would largely depend on your definition of the term - one could argue we see a "correction" almost every calendar year if you cherrypick the data and compare spring to winter stats. In any case it's definitely an interesting debate!