Will De-Dollarization Implode The Global Economy? | Michael Every
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- Опубликовано: 4 окт 2024
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It increasingly appears we are entering a multipolar world, different from the recent era of globalization era directed by the USA.
The majority of folks who watch this Wealthion channel are from Western countries, so to bring us up to speed on the key developments that the BRICs countries are up to that should have our attention, I'm pleased to welcome Michael Every back onto the program.
Michael is Global Strategist at Rabobank, and is based out of Singapore
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The FED knows. They aren't committed to attacking inflation. They are going to continue to inflate, stocks and commodities will continue to go up with everything else. You can't just sit on cash waiting for a crash, get your money working for you, start buying in slowly and then gradually increase the pace of buying as the prices continue to drop
It's a fact that recessions are a natural occurrence in the economic cycle, and the best approach is to ensure you're ready for them and have a proper plan in place. As someone who entered the workforce during a recession (2009), I experienced the direct effects of inflation and discovered the importance of generating increased passive income to counter it
Experienced long-term investors are aware that the market and economy have a tendency to bounce back over time, and it's wise for investors to be prepared for such a recovery. Speaking from my own experience, I continue to invest heavily in this volatile market and have achieved significant gains - my portfolio is presently up by 60%. For now, I'll keep a watchful eye on the situation and gradually invest in more stocks as opportunities arise
How did you achieve it? I been trying to stick with index funds. I feel this new interest rates hikes could crash this economy. I'm looking out for a better investing strategy, I have a lump sum that inflation is steady eating up
Well, there are a few out there who know what they are doing. I tried a few in the past years, but I’ve been with Sharon Ann Meny for the last five years or so, and her returns have been pretty much amazing
I appreciate you sharing this. When I looked up the woman you named and read through her credentials, it was obvious that she was a complete professional. I just need her to respond to the message I wrote her.
Things are strange right now. The US dollar is becoming less valuable because of inflation, but it's getting stronger compared to other currencies and things like gold and property. People are turning to the dollar because they think it's safer. I'm worried about my retirement savings of about $420,000 losing value because of high inflation. Where else can we keep our money?
Personally, I would say have a mentor. Not sure where you will get an experience one, but if your knowledge of the market is limited, it seems like a good bet.
Well I recommend you make a diversification plan because it's been harder to build a good financial portfolio since COVID. My colleague suggested I hire an advisor, and I've actually made over $120K with their help during this market crash. They used defensive strategies to protect my portfolio and make profits despite the ups and downs.
@@theresahv That's fascinating. How can I contact your Asset-coach as my portfolio is dwindling?
My Financial adviser is ‘’Julie Anne Hoover’’ she’s highly qualified and experienced in the financial market. She has extensive knowledge of portfolio diversity and is considered an expert in the field. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market
@@theresahv Thank you for this tip. It was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her resume.
A weak dollar can signal an economic downturn, making me to ponder on what are the best possible ways to hedge against inflation, and I've overheard people say inflation is a money-eater thus worried about my savings around $200k
The stock market is a way to hedge against inflation. Most notably amidst recession, investors need to understand where and how to allocate funds to hedge against inflation and still make profits.
in my opinion, the impact of the rise or fall of the U.S. dollar on investments is multi-faceted but learning how to grow your money has never been easier than now that you can explore and experience a truly diverse marketplace passively by using a well-performing portfolio-advisor.
I agree, having a portfolio-advisor for investing is genius! Not long ago amidst the pandemic crash in March 2020, I was really having inveesting nightmare prior touching base with a license portfolio-advisor. In a nutshell, i've accrued over $550k with the help of my advisor from an initial $120k investment thus far.
@@AlexanderTurke Please, who is the advisor that assists you with your investments?
@@RebeccaLee-ks4cq HEATHER ANN CHRISTENSEN is the coach that guides me, you probably might've come across her before I found her through a Newsweek report, she's quite known in her field, look-her up
Some economists have projected that both the U.S. and parts of Europe could slip into a recession for a portion of 2023. A global recession, defined as a contraction in annual global per capita income, is more rare because China and emerging markets often grow faster than more developed economies. Essentially the world economy is considered to be in recession if economic growth falls behind population growth.
It's a delicate season now, so you can do little or nothing on your own. Hence I’ll suggest you get yourself a financial expert that can provide you with valuable financial information and assistance
If the US starts to slip into recession it will never stop slipping.
SCAM_ALERT. Don't fall for these criminals.
Thats not gonna happen this time. Emerging markets use to be small enough to grow out of it but a lot of them look like japan in the 80s and they can t take more of the export market than they already have. and they are old
Damn this guy was good, hadn’t heard of him previously but from a macro perspective he made some incredibly pertinent points.
Got to say the rate at which you put these videos out and the quality of the guests you interview is outstanding. Honestly don’t know how you do it, must have an incredible team behind you Adam, hats off to you all!!
Second that!
Agree. This was a wonderful video. Thanks!
New voice. Refreshing. However....😅
Ukraine have zero chances of winning though 😅😂
Great interview. Finally someone, who has some humble respect towards the complex phenomenon which we call our global Eurodollar monetary system and all the silly, shallow discussions around that - way beyond the influence of the FED and other Central Bank ‘magicians’. Great to hear the questioning of what is money and what is value. Great to call SVB a national security issue, great understanding of the illusions we project into the ‘China reopening’. Michael has a profound understanding, great guest. A great human being with authentic experience.
Hard to believe this quality of content is available free of charge. Thank you Wealthion!!! Thrilled to see Michael Every on your program again. I also read his content on Zero Hedge whenever I find it there. He is obviously brilliant. Too bad I can only understand maybe half of what he writes. Your interviews with him are much easier to follow.
Adam is so condescending talking about Russia and China. Regime this and regime that. How about Russian government and Chinese government? And Russia and China cannot get along? Sure, they fought for a few dacades, definitely not as long as the French and British who slaughtered each other for 900 years, or the other Europeans who threw poison gas and weapons of mass destruction at each other and launched genocidal wars against each other and the rest of the world. If former mortal enemies, the likes of the French, Germans and Brits can now get along and form alliances, so can the Russians and Chinese, who fought each other for far fewer years and far less genocidal than Western and northern Europeans. And don't even get me started on the slaughter, genocide and enslavement committed by the English against the Irish and Scottish. I think they get along fine today, for the most part...
I agree Adam. There is condescension there. That said, even without that element, there are numerous sources of historical friction between Russia and China. These can rise up to be important again. Still, a powerful enemy (the US) can be a powerful uniting force.
I think he can quite rightly refer to the CCP & the Kremlin as regimes.. but then, I would also extend that to the Biden regime.
This guy is a chearleader for the deep state and he is in denial of the incoming defeat of Ukraine and the collapse of western civilization.
While saying that the RMB, RUB, etc. won't replace the USD, Michael seems to be avoiding what the Brics have actually proposed, i.e. a new commodity-backed currency based on a basket of Brics currencies. This would have the advantage of being backed by reality rather than by fiat.
USD will collapse itself due to hundreds of trillion dollars of debt and slow growth 😅😂
The USD dollar is backed by something. The US. The US secures all of the trade lanes, it prevents most of the war are colonization, because the US creates a world where you can trade. The BRICS countries dont have a replacement for the US in terms of a market or security. The US wouldnt buy BRICS goods and wouldn't allow you to sell to US citizens. So now instead of being a third world country where you can just sell to rich citizens. You gonna be poor, unable to buy tech, food or fuel from rich countries and eventually the remaining dollar countries will who have all the navies i.e. japan, UK, US, AUS, France will invade you and take it anyway
I would like to see Micheal Every back again. Great video.
When Adam asked Michale Every about the influence of China opening up the economy. Michael Every thought there is absolutely no influence. However, when Adam mentioned about another renowned Macro economist' opinion, Michael Every said the comment was totally wrong. This indicateed he has no courtesy or respect to other people' opinion. I thought he sounded arrogant and We (had a few listeners at the time) lost respect of this speaker instantly.
Didn't Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett invent the strategy of buying/investing when the market is low and also buying/investing when the market is high? As Warren Buffet said, he has seen this happen many times in his life. Not an investor. My wife and i never earned more than a middle class salary. We plan to get retired at 58 with a stock portfolio worth $4M. We have never sold so much as one share of stock...
He started by citing Heraclitus... Finally someone who reads more than just the FT, WSJ, The Economist and Bloomberg.
Absolutely wonderful ! The best discussion on the state of global economy currently. Michael Every is thorough and goes deep in to philosophical level connecting socio-political and economic facts. Adam is on his best in hosting this discussion. Looking forward to part 2...
Anyone that can properly use a metaphor (Seinfeld soup nazi episode) is instantly a fan of mine on top of being a wonderful technical and economic analyst . Thanks again Wealthion
I must say his geopolitical analyses sounds a lot like Joseph Borrells.. where he thinks that the West is a ”garden” and the rest of the world is a ”jungle”. Should we all really be surprised that those countries are tired of our BS?
Simply fascinating guest! Please, if you can, have more frequent interviews with M. Every as his perspective is, and will become even more, pertinent to what is really going to matter over the next several years.
So, a near worthless debt-based USD will continue to be the world reserve currency for the foreseeable future? I think not.
then what is your brilliant alternative? please share it
@@utpharmboy2006 Barter system as stated and as inefficient as it might be as long as they don't lose their shirt. 300 billions russian dollars gone with the push of a button. I guess they can accept some some inefficiency in the name of remaining whole ....
@@bobmorane4926 rural areas could work that out and im fine with it.....but the cities would burn themselves down. might also be fine with that
@@utpharmboy2006 gdp mostly comes from the cities
@@realbigugly so does crime and bullshit politics and the adacity to tell everyone else how they should live.
This has to be one of the best videos you've done. I hope our leaders are as smart as your guest, but I fear they aren't. Maybe someone could make this video mandatory for the Fed, and the leaders of both parties, to wake them up to the problems we face and give them a strategy to address them.
I disagree and tell you why John, you ever notice that these guys will not talk about other countries currencies? I mean seriously, let say they are right for a change (never are) but let say they are right we going to de-dollarize ok what currency then is there to take it place. That where it get scary because other countries currency are worse shape the US dollar but they are refusing to talk about it.
@Valentina Allegra de Fontiane there was no suggestion of having the USD replaced. Instead, it was going to a world where a lot of bilateral exchange was made, e.g., more like the Saudis accepting yuan for oil, or the Russians accepting yuan or gold for oil. That would still end up screwing the USD which would devastate the US economy... unless we get our act together and stop printing and spending like drunken sailors. Example: the proposed Biden budget plan that will increase our national debt to $50T+ in just six more years... what are these fools smoking? Are they really that stupid or are they deliberately trying to destroy the US? IMO the answer is Cloward-Piven... they have a strategy and it's not a good one for America.
@@johnclifford1911 John please do your proper research and don't come at me with rumor. The Saudi Arabian government has not I repeat has not replace the US dollar. They do some trade exchange but by and large the Chinese still must pay in US dollar for their oil. Again let me repeat that the Saudi Government insist that China pay US dollars for their oil.
@@johnclifford1911 Please don't spew rumors at me. Second, I don't need someone who can't even pick up economic report and read it. Because of the new NAFTA deal America, Canada, and Mexico are now 1/3 of the entire world economy. So let get something straight John Clifford who doesn't read the world needs us, we don't need the world. Third, currently right now just America alone we have 11 trillion dollar worth of consumption per year. That is bigger than, China, Russia, and UK combined. If you were take all the BRICS nations and double it America's consumers are still bigger. "Consumption" is the economic engine in which your country makes money. If you don't have it then you like North Korea and most countries economy is like North Korea.
@@johnclifford1911 Let me explain the American Empire John Clifford. When Napoleon Bonaparte Emperor of the French sold Louisiana to President Thomas Jefferson in 1803, America's economy grew bigger than the French, Spanish, Dutch, Portuguese, and British Empires combined. And that is before we won the American / Mexican war when we added the US States of Texas, New Mexico, and California. We don't need money from the rest of world. We don't need oil or resources from the rest of the world John Clifford. You need us for money, food, and industries.
By far, the best interview I've seen about the real social/political dynamics of international economics. Everyone acts as though it's all about Wall Street and some billionaire fat cats. No. There are billions of other people who seek to live a life, and there won't be another virus lockdown to keep them in jail.
Another lockdown with a really deadly virus next time would send Crude oil negative again. History doesn't repeat itself it spirals.
"There's more and more of a worry that incoming data is showing that the Fed might be a little behind the curve than maybe they expected moving into this year," says Bipan Rai, North America head of FX strategy at CIBC Capital Markets in Toronto. In my portfolio, I'm noticing more red than green. How are other market players generating gains of more than $350,000 in just a few months?
There are many other interesting stocks in many industries that you might follow. You don't have to act on every forecast, so I'll suggest that you work with a financial advisor who can help you choose the best times to purchase and sell the shares or ETFs you want to acquire. I've been talking to a coach named Maria Juliana Ramirez for a long now, mostly because I lack the knowledge and energy to deal with these ongoing market circumstances. I made more than $220K during this slump, demonstrating that there are more aspects of the market than the average individual is aware of. Having an investing counselor is now the best line of action, especially for those who are close to retiring.
@@zoeytank2921 My Financial Advisor is MARIA JULIANA RAMIREZ. I found her on a CNBC interview where she was featured and reached out to her afterwards. She has since provide entry and exit points on the securities I focus on. You can run a quick online research with her name if you care for supervision. I basically follow her market moves and haven’t regretted doing so.
@@trazzpalmer3199 be careful
Fake news
Maria will bankrupt you
Wow, this guy is BS free! So refreshing.
As smart as this guy is, he's just plain wrong that the BRICS and others will resort to bartering. The BRICS are in fact working on something called mCBDC, and a small number of trades have already been done via this system. Regarding all the Euro dollar debt, China is quietly replacing the debt with RMB for developing countries, and that's why apart from Sri Lanka, you have not heard a lot of third world countries collapse, in contrast to previous times when they would be the first to buckle under the weight of Euro dollar debts. It's now the developed countries that are mired in debt and suffering social and economic collapses.
Most of the astute investors already understand the world of pain they're coming to if the dedolarization accelerates. Thus, it's not in their interest to promote it, instead they want to fear monger their way out of this one even at the risk of sounding silly.
He didn't say they would be doing actual bartering.
Higher wages are a symptom of inflation, not a cause of it.
wow, great job landing Michael for an interview. The guy's writing on ZeroHedge is smart and witty
Good convo. If BRICS would emerge trading among themselves, with China buying the raw materials from others and manufacturing to sell to the West and to other BRICS, then I think it would be difficult for US to shut that down by ending trade with BRICS+. US would need the raw materials of the commodity-producing BRICS+. US doesn't have the specialized raw materials required to supply even our own military industry.
You're exactly right. He mis-represented their relationships by falsely saying they would all be trading the same things. They all have very different strengths; e.g., Russia would trade energy to China for consumer goods (it's already started happening in a much bigger way), and Brazil trades food to China for consumer goods (already happening). You need to remember that Mr. Every gets his paycheck from a large western bank, and that situation might be imperiled if he said the wrong thing.
Other countries don't have everything to supply their own militaries either.
You seal your fate, with the choices you make..Don't burden yourself with what might weigh you down..Everything you own has no real value..Time is your most valuable asset..Don't waste it
In the end nomination of currency you trade in really doesn't matter. Relative medium term stability and trustworthiness is a key. With economic war on Russia the trustworthiness is already out. And the stability doesn't look good either. So replacement for other countries really is in order. Even if in short term it would be slightly more complicated.
Adam, is it any chance you could set time marks for each of your questions?
Love the video and channel, not always could watch it at once.
Really an outstanding guest. Very insightful dialog & information.
I was not convinced by the argument that a BRICS commodities scenario would blow everything up. If I understand the argument correctly, BRICS can't just trade among themselves if they introduce a commodities-backed currency because many of their export markets are in the US and Western countries. This would cause a global trade shutdown or some other catastrophic event. Therefore, BRICS needs to continue exporting using the dollar.
However, I want to make two points. First, the resource buyers, not the resource producers, would have a bigger problem in this scenario. The US and the West would eventually have to trade using the BRICS currency because they are the ones who need the imports. Effectively, a BRICS currency initiative would reverse the current global power dynamic, where the West can't use its much easier access to the dollar to get a better deal. Instead, the situation would reverse, where the BRICS can use the power of their new currency to extract much higher value in their trade with the West. Maybe we could call it "reverse dollarization."
Second, in this scenario, the dollar would lose its value because the BRICS countries (and many others that will follow) will simply stop using the dollar. This is good for everyone who has sovereign dollar-denominated debt as it would render it worthless. This is the same strategy that the US government might take to deal with its own dollar-denominated debt. The point is that every country in the world now has the motivation to de-dollarize, and that's what we're seeing, including big moves between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
The situation is dire for the west which explains this insane US drive to war because they see it as the only option to stop this process. Except that it's actually isolating them more and more from the rest of the world, including Europe now. I don't think there is a way out. The lenin scenario is the one that is going to happen domestically. Labour will get the upper hand simply because capital does not have the tools to deal with any of this. They will not be able to print their way out of this crisis.
zz. Interesting points. Not sure I agree with one statement : "This is the same strategy that the US government might take to deal with its own dollar-denominated debt. " A very weak dollar does not fix the US debt problem. Nobody would want to continue buying its bonds, which would exacerbate its need to engage in QE. Similarly, this would lead to high inflation in US as all goods and services that are imported would now cost more. Exports would be helpef of course. .
You're correct. Mr. Every works for a large western bank, and he was "talking their book".
@@sergedadesky5638 Exactly, there is no good scenario for them. And yet, they might be forced to do all of this just to be able to continue disbursing money to their military and social programs.
That's why the figure of 32 trillion of debt (or whatever it) is a huge problem. There is no fiscal manoeuvrability to be able to service the interest on this debt, let alone pay it down, without relying on cheap imports, cheap energy and the ability to have gluttonous zirp policies with no inflation. That is/was the foundation of the american economy and what informed their global policies all these years. It's not working anymore.
@@johnsmith-ci8uj It's funny the western analyst is so oblivious to the motivations of the rest of the world that it's not really registering with them what's happening. I would suggest to the channel to invite an economist from out east to give a balanced perspective to what is happening.
Finally, interviewing someone with their own thesis instead of another person repeatedly saying something someone else said. He's rite to look towards Lennon that's the direction. Capital control's financial repression is here, hold my beer and watch this shit.
Damn right!!! that’s exactly how I feel let your guests stand alone on their experience and expertise.
Lenin*
@@winstonsmith6204 I’m just hoping what he means is that capitalism should have some rules that don’t just favor the few because unfettered capitalism is just socialism for the rich but alas I think he just wants Leninism ?
So what do you mean Leninism
So the people who farm, mine and make stuff are in big trouble, but the people who produce little but consume a lot, and pay for it with paper money, are in less trouble? That the people who have the stuff are in more trouble than the people without the stuff is illogical. The only reason the US has not already cut trade ties with China is because US citizens need the fridges, phones, microwaves, washing machines etc. they get from China.
These people do bullshit jobs for a living and lording over everyone else who does work. Remember 'learn to code' days for miners and then reporters had to see layoffs and how sanctimonious they all became.
Wonderful guest!! I could listen to him for 5 hours.
He keeps saying gold can’t work but he doesn’t say why.
I think Michal Every represents Wall st that the US dollar never failed.
I participated in "child labor" by having a paper route. It only benefited me.
In my experience the beneficiaries were the paper, those advertising through it and the tire and brake shops needed to keep me in motion. The games the publisher played, including requiring delivery to and collection from those who believed their subscriptions were over assured that the delivery person did not benefit.
Well I developed some basic financial literacy, communication, social and organizational skills. As well as great exercise delivering the papers and a feeling of confidence to try new things. It was a great springboard experience to future jobs and skills.
Michael Every hit the market correctly last summer. He predicted all the scenarios that are happening or about to happen.
Amazing interview, a very different but well argued view I have never heard before.
Adam - Regarding de-dollarization All your guest think from American point of view that dollar is irreplaceable but if you look at it for emerging economies higher dollar does not help. They rather trade in their normal currencies backed by gold rather than go for dollars. Also your guest forget that top 2 oil purchasers of oil India & China are trading in non-dollar term for oil. That has unhinged petro- dollar. What i see is dollar still having relevance but it shud trade in lower terms. Higher the dollar cost ,more countries would go away from dollar
A great interview and one with views that are seen through the global lense, with everyone in it as opposed to just those seeking to max profits.
Excellent ideas, some which I have not heard before. Michael is a deep, independent thinker! It would be interesting to hear The Duran's take on his ideas.
Again, another gem of an interview.
The new studio looks great! It’s a much brighter and crisper picture! Love the channel! 👏
So what do we do about it?
Thank you for having Mr. Every on again! He makes so much sense.
NO HE DOESN'T. You forget that fact that this isn't talking about the rest of the currencies and how bad a shape they are in.
ukraine is simple: first honor the Minsk accords but since that is long gone, simply this, east of the Dnieper to Russia and no Nato in the west. the war is now over.
Thank you very much, Adam, for all your podcasts 🎉
I especially appreciate your competence and diligence in your conversations. You really engage with your knowledgeable guests whose experiences bring out so many intricacies in how and when the markets move.
I look forward to listening to you all in the future 😊
This interview is incredible. I did not buy everything he said, but he gave a lot of food for thought. Thank you.
Astonishingly good interview, great work. Thank you!
I disagree with Everys [rather shallow] RBA comment. I think you should relisten to Lowes recent analysis.and outlook statement. Plus, think about how different the Australian mortgage rates works compared to those in USA and Europe ....among many other points that you've ignored...
This guy has some great ideas. Love it!
While I don’t agree with a number of statements, I greatly enjoyed the mental exercise.
Dollar goes down, gov't bond yields go down, HYG goes up, stock market goes up. What happened when they were doing QE? It's QE. Stop it with not calling what is going on currently as not QE. It's QE. Printing money to buy bonds, to make debt cheap and the market goes up. QE most definitely. You're not looking close enough at the dollar vs. bond yields, vs. corporate debt purchases vs the stock market. When you are buying gov't bonds to lower the price of debt (corporate debt purchases) so corporations can get liquidity and the stock market goes up. What else could it be but QE?
"Global Barter", is putting the brakes on the global trade and giving the middle finger to the US dollar.
Pretty sure the 🌎🌍 ❤ that idea. They don't like getting ripped off for every trade they do with the US. It's kind of the the credit card fee that merchants have to eat for every transaction.
This guy is solid and knowledgeable.
Thumbs up from me.👍
The subject begins at 30:00
Another excellent interview Adam...Thanks! Really enjoy hearing from experts on geo-political front!
Great mix of guests lately. Michael is a pro’s pro.
Nobody crushes a straw man argument narrowly defined to please the emotional biases of his audience better than Michael Every! Pure Neocon Copium here, and I absolutely loved every bit of it because there were so many factual errors and mistakes in setting the geopolitical stage which mirror discredited neocon talking points that it makes his whole spiel more laughable than anything else. Loved the bits like "even the financial times..." and the quick and total dismissal of Louie Gave as "he is wrong, he is pro China." (oh, OK ). Lets have an economist like Jeff Sachs with decades of global experience and extensive contacts on the show and ask him about Every's lay of the land on the evolution of the global monetary system. I just saw him answer a question about it on another show where he said it will bear little resemblance to what we have today with a smile and was unconcerned as to that equaling some doom, but rather noting that it represented natural progress given the economic realities of the world today. People like Sachs are focused on the world as it is and its practical evolution going forward, and people like Every are obsessed with spinning as hard as they can for a failing western dominance.
Your opinion!
Finally, someone who is a thinker.
Michael continues to be the Best single source of thinking on the interplay between geopolitics and financial markets. Kudos for having him on again.
the thing here is to discover what is the bonding to hold together the Brics....that is key factor...because it is not visible now ...and the other is how you are going to reference the commercial exchange....for long we will see dollar as reference....in the mean time...see how this new friends club works....Great talk, Great questions and answers...and more to see coming
The last 15 minutes show that this guy is either clueless about geopolitics or on US payroll. The war in the Ukraine is still ongoing only because the US wants it to continue. It was engineered to decouple Europe from Russia and deny it any strategic autonomy. With Europe in a bind, a similar script is now unfolding in East Asia, with the US poking and provoking China in an effort to force its hand against Taiwan and start a second proxy war of attrition. And it is not “unfortunate” that some Europeans are now putting the pieces together and trying to distance themselves from the madness to which America leads them. Macron’s statements from yesterday are the only sensible ones a reasonable person would make. All the economic analyses and number crunching about trade and currency trends are meaningless against the backdrop of the major power transition forces that are playing out, and no one can predict the end game, which may very well be a nuclear apocalypse. And the US has severe domestic political and social problems that can further upend any prediction.
I was similarly baffled by his commentary, and also actually wondered if he's on US payroll in some form as a "consultant", as Peter Zeihan is. He knows way too much about history and geopolitics to have made the comments he made about the war.
@@johnsmith-ci8uj Fully agree. The last 15 minutes sounded like something taken from a propaganda playbook rather than a serious geopolitical analysis. That made me very suspicious, and Peter Zeihan came to mind as well. Your consultant conjecture rings true, although I have no way to verify it.
Why do central banks buy record amounts of gold & what’s its significance?..
This guy doesn't understand that the price of goods going up 9% and wage going up 9% is not the same.
if the price of a house goes up by 9% let's say from $100k to $109k , and you wage goes up, from $2000 to $2180 , then contrary to what he says, the nominal amount increase is NOT on par.
if it were on par, then the amount of time you have to work to afford the house, would be the same, but it isn't, you now have to work longer for the same thing. Meanwhile you also don't spend that money on other goods and services. Lowering the income of the other businesses.
So no, that is not wage inflation. Your purchasing power is literally going down.
Ughhhhh not really. In your example yes the house goes up 9% but if your wages go up the same percent (9%) your ability to qualify for the loan, make payments, will zero out.
@@williammathis6044 More debt, that's your equalizer?
It only effects the currency that which was used the most throughout the world,if Countries are creating their own currencies what is inflation any longer??????If America and Europe uses cryptocurrency not back by gold then which market will implode????
Productive fiscal policy requires politics with integrity. Good luck to us.
Wow Adam, you never cease to amaze me. Your guest selection is like an oasis in desert of propaganda and faulty, bad data! Love it
Or on the other hand, an ideological prejudice might just make Michael Every plain wrong. Michael relies on a perception of tension and conflict emanating from Russia and China. This view is not the view of many Western experts, and on the contrary, in the global South many see the tension and conflict as being created by the West. If Michael's fundamental understanding is being so distorted by his 'team west' bias, consider how far wrong his global strategising might be.
It was a good interview but what he says about the BRICS staying in the USD system makes no sense. They can trade and price in gold. That's not barter. That's how the world worked through most of recorded history. Sure it's nice to have USDs and earn interest but what good is it if the commodities you are selling going up at twice the rate? You are better off holding gold in that scenario. Bretton Woods was a con. All the interest paid came out of the principal that was never repaid in gold. Russia is not in the SWIFT system anymore and seems to be ok. Maybe things are not great there but certainly not the disaster described here. And even with all the sanctions they are still selling enriched uranium to the West.
Yuan wouldn't work is correct..but to say Gold wouldn't work too is just wishful thinking. In a y case, USD is on the slide down
I think I’ll need to listen to this one at least 3 times.
Any region having war or war fair especially will face instability ,socially ,economically and extending to politically firstly.The global atmosphere is going on this way and will not change unless the superpowers have the willingness to change the manner of the game overtime and of course has to be an agreeable manner of all the nations involved across the world.
I absolutely love when you interview Michael. Thanks to both of you
His views on the De-Dollarisation appear to be gleaned almost entirely from the FT article, which having read it myself has an erroneous view right from the get go. It's clear he doesn't understand what the BRICS trading currency is all about, and it's also clear he doesn't want to contemplate the trauma of it, because he actively shies away from considering the major economies shifting to it. There is brief mention of China, but no mention of the lynch pin Saudi Arabia, or any of the giant oil producers.
To my understanding the BRICS trading currency is a go between independent notional currency which serves only to allow trade between countries, and is exchangeable for gold on the Shanghai Stock exchange. The criticisms I have heard from several sources never appear to recognise this fact, or maybe I have it all wrong ???
This guy doesn't register his hypocrisy yet
He's an elite who works for a western bank and is functioning here, perhaps unintentionally, as a propagandist for the existing injust system.
Absolutely fascinating!
RBA has stopped lifting rates, property bubble anyone!
Love the way your guest thinks.
The Fed doesn't need to break CPI inflation, it needs to break inflation expectations, which is reflected in the yield curve and bond markets. The Fed needs to raise rates until the demand for credit breaks and the supply exceeds demand. That means restraining aggregate demand and, subsequently, labor demand and wages.
Being a friend to the US will get your pipeline blown up. It's no wonder that nations are abandoning the American Hegemony.
The pipe line is the least of it, the brutality has been going on for decades.
Brilliant interview as always!
Thanks guys!!
not really, if it was , it was not free!!!
Every is a good thinker at the macro economic level- geopolitically he is strong IF you’re looking for a mouthpiece for US/UK propoganda.
Ard the Saudi-Iran detente, his claim of dagger behind the back etc. 100% correct. Just would have added to credibility IF he had gone on to say it’s how geopolitics EVERYWHERE works. US blowing up NS2 thus hurting ally Germany’s (and other EU secondary buyers) master resource supply WITH NO BACKUP except “now buy our supply instead”….This Adam was not your finest interview, was just a US “I’m so nice” chest thumping session
A BRICS Currency would have to standardize a disparate batch of currencies & governments into a single currency or standard. I don't see how that can be done with all participants being satisfied with their place in it. This will not be harmonious and this experiment could blow up in there faces with everyone pissed off at each other. Hating the Dollar or the United States is not a good basis for a unified currency.
Stop deluding yourself.
@@robertdlucas7418 Really? I'm still skeptical. I will believe it when I see it. They have a whole lot of work yet to do as bad as they might want it.
Will Ai buy consumer goods to keep the economy afloat or is it (people)
Mr. Every is AWLAYS worth hearing.
It's an old playbook ? In the old playbook, China's economy was similar to Ethiopia's economy .... Today the West economy is the one being reduced as its production cannot match the Brics production.
How about TGA & debt/gdp & 2023 budget in this franework?
How much goods do America and Europe import from other countries????How much business do other countries do without America and Europe and what are the population numbers in other countries as in consumers?????
What about the labor participation? If the pool of workers is decreasing, as some argue, for different reasons, since the pandemic, then the unployment rate, percentage wise, would be reflecting a wrong reality. This would explain the contadictory state where there is low unemployment at the same time as recession expectations.
Adam,
Please linger on the tactics of Sun Tzu. "The enemy of my enemy is my friend". This is no different than the situation between Carl Ichan and Bill Ackman when they were fighting publicly about Herbalife. Traders who were not part of this fight smelled blood in the water and attacked Bill's position. They pushed the market in the direction that it was going. Not because they were right or standing with some moral authority, but because there was a reward to be earned by joining the fray. The World see's that there is a weakening animal in the herd (the USD/USA) and the BRICS+ is trying to take advantage of the US dollar hegemony by collectively pushing it in the direction it was going. Not that the action is right, but capitalizing on the fact that the option is there and the target will not be in position for long.
Thanks for the great discussion Michael and Adam!
Thanks for all you do, love your interviews.
Awesome interview...Michael has some amazing insights!
Another great interview as usual. This guy has an interesting and measured take, will definitely check out his work some more.
I like reading Every on ZH, partly because of his good knowledge of marxism and history, but he lost me when he here when he was talking about the Ukraine War. He seems to buy the NATO and MIC narrative (which is aggressive and expansionist) hook, line, and sinker. No mention of NATO's constant and obnoxious expansion as a so-called "defensive" (LOL) alliance, the US-sponsored Maidan "color revolution" (i.e., coup), Ukraine's blatant ethnic cleansing in the Donbass and undermining of the Minsk agreements, or of Putin's repeated warnings over the last 15 years to stop expanding NATO to the east. I'll have to take everything he says with suspicion and a grain of salt now after such an epic miss. I guess there is still Zoltan Poznar to listen to on these issues!
This was a fascinating interview by a man who was until now unknown to me. I'm intrigued by his concept of the Fed's possible response to current debt dilemmas. Keep interest rates high to strengthen dollar and alleviate regional banks money drainage issues. Allow decimation of non-preferred industries (oil and gas?vs green energy) while favoringi 'industries deemed critical (AI? Nanochips? Green tech?.
I realize this would hugely distort the US economy and lead to ever increasing crony capitalism and industrial boondoggles. That does not mean it won't happen. It's certainly what's happened so far with the recent Inflation Protection Act.
Can it work? My gut (and classic economic training ) tells me no. That leads to things like China's "ghost cities" . I see it more as a temporary fix that eventually produces monstrous offspring. But I do think it's extremely likely to happen given what I see most Democrats and Republicans expousing.
Everyone seems to be preaching "America first" and "Buy American". "Free trade" is almost a curse word, and just wait until the "wokesmiths" have fiinished performing their magic on that expression. What do you guys think?
Super guest, great insight
The Countries that used inflated currencies ,will only witness a short fall then a boost due to their own currencies in rotation replacing inflated money......
Michael is elusive but always brings the high level
16:42 - Powell did not say bank failures were a substitute for hikes. He said they needed to wait and see the impact on lending - because it was too soon to tell.
Great episode and analysis of BRICS v USD