'Wow!!!!" ~ Thank you!!! I've been listening/watching videos from overseas epidemiologist's, and here we have one of our own right here in NZ. Why isn't this guy being listened to by the politicians?
He made a bunch of errors. Check the actual date of China's lockdown. Check the IFR (infection fatality rate) of Johan Geisecke or dr. Battacharya ruclips.net/video/2SdUmsMLW0o/видео.html ruclips.net/video/289NWm85eas/видео.html Check the IFR of the Diamond Princess cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/diamond_cruise_cfr_estimates.html Note that this is an old study and 14 people have now died (twice as many as when their calcs were done) Swedens IFR is 0.55% www.sfgate.com/science/article/Sweden-herd-immunity-experiment-backfires-covid-15289437.php?fbclid=IwAR0Gabg7DdrW_m5DE3iwxous7R72jXy3fxhcfY6xoW3oCCxH-rolBYfNMog They did blood testing (serological tests like this fellow talked about: antibody testing) and found 730,000 (7.3% of 10M) people in sweden had covid-19 and 4000 had died already. This of course will rise as the remaining 24K out of 33K cases move from active to cured, or fatalities. So 0.55% is a minimum. Please do not trust any authority and double check everyone. This guys does some pretty suspect things with data from the US and just assumes it applies to New Zealand, which is crazy, since New Zealand has a different strain of the virus that North America, and there is no reason to think the testing strategy in one country should apply to the other. different strains: www.news-medical.net/news/20200331/Eight-strains-of-coronavirus-afflicting-the-world.aspx
censorship is alive and well in NZ it seems; we in the US hear that the media will not allow him to be interviewed or spoken to; (Govt orders): long live the freedom of those living in NZ.
@@geoffarden917 If he is being censored, why are we able to view this video and many other videos of him as well as articles, interviews etc? He is NOT being censored anywhere.
Thank you for sharing your knowledge and research 🤗 I work in the health sector and was sucked in2 the fear of the first lockdown but now as I do my own research listening to experts like you, I realise I need to stand up (hoping more people will join us) . This information WILL quickly spread on social media 👍 'Namaste' 🙏
Dad died of SARS I in 2002 because a patient was brought into the Baylor Irving ICU and placed in an adjacent ICU room. Within 2 days, my dad, who was there for a different reason - high blood pressure leading to CHF--my dad became infected from SARS. He would not have died if he had not been exposed to SARS. SARS was highly infectious and may have gone through the air system. However he caught it, he ended up with SARS in his body, on a respirator, and twenty two days later, we lost him. Was CHF an accurate description? I doubt he would have died if he hadn't been infected by SARS. I hate the way people are dismissing people who happen to be already in the hospital, dealing with a different illness--and if they get infected with SARS II - Covid19--they aren't able to withstand the ravenous impact to their lungs. As an epidemiologist, can you not help correct this denial bias? It seems false to look on the bright side that Covid 19 is a minor player, as if the people who died while sick w something else would have died anyway. Please help change this bias. Thank you!
Leslie, with all due respect, SARS was at least 10 times more deadly, probably more. My father has died in Jan this year and I would not blame Corona, although he might have been positive, but after chemo, lymphoma, melanoma, grossly enlarged spleen and kidney failure ... Covid 19 is a minor player. He also died of CHF, btw.
Leslie, thank you for bringing that up. I too am an epidemiologist and in no way I agree with the minimization that my colleague of profession here presents. When he and others speak of a differentiation on whether a patient dies from Covid or with covid, that’s clinically impossible to determine. Usually in death reports are you will see the following: deceased due to multiple organ failure etc etc etc... What does that tell you? That doctors can’t determine whether this or that is the cause of death, but what we can certainly understand is that mortality rates that include all these aspects are more accurate. I believe that my colleague of profession here doesn’t show is that if you want to compare two diseases to each other, let’s look at the number of deaths always in the same specific region so that confounding factors can be prevented. The seasonal flu for last year caused about 12-61k deaths in one year in US. We have reached 115k not so long ago in the United States and we have yet another half of the year to go. I yet have to find understanding on how does this non sensical comparison even come to certain brains.
@@denniszd4801 - what a problem this all is..... 12-61K deaths? does nobody know for sure? could it have been 120k? At the end of the day the underlying factors are so so important, so at the end of it all someone somewhere should be addressing them... basically we have created a grossly metabolically unfit modern society with a modern mass produced diet that is leading to all the factors that end up allowing virus such as SARS and COVID-19 to kill us. Let's not forget that since the SAD was pubished in 1970 that coronary heart disease, obesity, diabetes have rocketed. Somebody needs to grab hold of 'government' and give it a good shake. Oh and the scientists who ignore contrary evidence to publish what their sponsors want to see should never be allowed in a lab again - and sued for malpractice. Even if your colleage seems to have gone a littel to far one way - well it at least helps balance the bias presented by government and the mass news media.
I found it easier to listen to by increasing the playback speed. Just to 1.25 of normal. Makes it sound like there’s more voice modulation and emphasis.. even if it’s not real, it’s easier to continue paying attention.
Epidemiology is dry. That's the problem with humans now with 24/7 dopamine stimulation with media and social media. It drives said media to sensationalize everything which turns into clickbait and fake news. I'll take dry truth or entertaining lies all day.
There needs to be an inquiry into the COVID-19 psychosis. How a virus with a negligible threat to healthy working-age people caused governments to unnecessarily damage economies with ill-considered lock-down policies. Following, a study of the illness and death related to the resulting recession.
"Causes of deaths are being swapped on the death certificate". OK, so why do ONS (UK Govt stats) total death figures, show a drastic increase in deaths on a week to week basis compared to the comparable average of the previous 10 years? It is quite clear that more people are dying. The figure is so much higher, it's not even debatable. The same can be said for U.S., French, Italian and Spanish deaths.
So given this hypothesis (ie: corona virus is not as fatal as annual flu) we SHOULD see an annual fatality in New York of 20,000+ deaths every 3 months. Why don't we?? Why aren't people over 80 dying off EVERY year at the same rate as during this current pandemic IF the flu is more deadly than covid? Separately, I agree that lock down in rural areas that are very spread out is counter productive. Protect the high risk and let the young and healthy create our herd immunity.
WHO lied about the #’s. Countries panicked and then there’s an element of Big Pharma, and the push for extending the virus so a vaccine can be created and money made. Every epidemiologist (real scientist, not 30+ year lobbyist gov employee) is saying the same thing, this virus goes away by itself. We should have kept kids in school, people over 65 should have stayed isolated and no mass shutdown. Even with massively dishonest + inflated #’s - death by covid is not what were told. More people are infected than #’s show, death rates are in line with the seasonal flu (slightly elevated in the elderly). The media lies and video take downs will not be able to hide this truth forever. TIME TO GET BACK TO WORK!
I don't agree in part with the presentation. Is not if the People under 65 die or not, is how many People get sick at the same time, so the Health system have the infrastructure to treat them so it doesn't colapse.
indeed Andres: "is how many People get sick at the same time" in many countries, the hospitals are quite empty. We understand in nz where dr thornley is based, that over 2000 public hospital beds are empty, as a precautionary principle; there were up to 14 people at any one time with corona in those empty beds. Here in the US, we have the same story.
As soon as they learned that hospitals can cope the lockdown should have stopped. But then NZ and other countries decided we need to keep going till near elimination of covid19. That's where I reach my limit of tolerance for such restriction of our human liberties and disruption of our livelihoods. Enough already!
What a relief. A kiwi expert who knows what’s going on. I was getting depressed thinking Swedes are the only ones using their swede. Where are our serological tests?
That is absolutely wrong. You cannot take New Zealand which is the least affected country in the world and work your calculations on that. Second, 0.1% is the CFR, not the IFR of flu. German study found an IFR of about 0.3% which is very high after following a large sample of population in a small village. Im sure the IFR would ultimately get probably lower than that but it would never reach as low as you state.
Assumptions mean nothing, look at the number of deaths, and compare these with previous years. After you've done that please explain to me why we allow high-school student Bill Gates to decide whether we are allowed to go outside again. This is totally ridiculous! Wake up, my friend.
In my neighborhood about 80 percent are unemployed. Wondering how to pay rent ..feed the kids...car payment..insurance..no daycare..gas and electric..cant afford to go get tested....humans are idiots.
This comment section is Idiocracy incarnate. The danger of SARS-COV-2 isn't it's mortality rate, it's its R0 of between 2.5 and 3.5. If left unchecked the number of cases will increase exponentially. Influenza has an R0 value of 1. If you really want to compare the two, consider that entire classes and sometimes grades get quarantined at home once a certain number of students get the flu. Statistically speaking, schools would have been cancelled by now anyway due to high infection rates; infections which the world's health care systems cannot cope with right now. I can only imagine the same thing would happen to companies if workers just went on like nothing was wrong. Please, enlighten me, what would New Zealand do if its medical system completely collapsed?
Agreed! I am wondering why comments are so uniform too. Maybe youtube & fb tend to pigeon hole people then these groups become echo chambers. It's almost spooky sometimes how this happens. I've noticed it happening to some of my friends. I enjoy being widely read and open minded but very critical.
Sensationalist, ignorant crap. You obviously do not understand the SIR model. "Please, enlighten me, what would New Zealand do if its medical system completely collapsed?" is a logical fallacy.
Absolutely agree. I can't believe people are this retarded. Lockdowns are expensive but Denmark Finland and Norway are FAR better off than Sweden. They can never get those lives back. The care home argument doesnt stack up now those people died a month ago. This interview is brilliant. ruclips.net/video/0k84gE7ObuQ/видео.html
As a kinesiologist, I tested my own body for it's reaction to Covid19, when it first appeared. Th bio feedback gave me a negative. No threat. . . This lockdown has been abominable in "almost" every way. Maybe it taught some of us lessons. Things we had time to think about, but what is interesting to us, has been life threatening to many others and many others have and will die from the lockdowns to come. This is the scientific proof in the process. . . . Excellent material
Finally someone who knows how to analyze data, however I do take issue with doing population density of a country, unless you integrate the area to come up with a more specific population density which is comparable with other areas as I have shown for trying to do a comparison of Colorado’s counties without taking into account the unbalanced population density within each county. What this says is that the transmission mechanism is concentration driven, the higher population density the higher number of cases, which is analogues to the exposure level, high exposure level environments have higher transmission rates, which suggest that if you analyze your environments and model potential exposure levels, then changes can be made in high exposure level environments to lower the exposure levels mechanically or through treatment, then when most environments are rendered low exposure level environments then no social distancing or PPE will be requires to prevent the transmission of this virus or future viruses. Scientist must speak up with scientific analysis and solutions to scientific problems!
If you want to know what is really going on ask your local hospital icu team. I know several and they have told me it’s a sh!tfest. If you have nurses you know crying to you about how bad it is then either they are lying or this dude hasn’t got his maths correct. The people on frontline of this in Europe are seeing it firsthand and even with social distancing etc it’s like a war zone for them.
I fully agree. Met a lady at the pharmacy yesterday who was sick with COVID, together with her daughter. Very bad. She was very angry about the demonstrations against the lockdown (which is very mild here in Germany). I got the impression this guy cherry-picks the numbers. Doesn't see the forest for the trees.
Not in Canada. Hospitals are 'dead'. Workers are being sent home early. Everywhere. Stop freaking out because someone you know got sick from COVID> More importantly...why did they get sick? Wake up call?
@@joseftraunmueller3844 It is not everybody else's problem that those people got sick from COVID. Lockdowns are immune destroying in themselves. Do your research.
Very interesting. Thanks for going to the effort to post this. I also found your comments on fat vs sugar and starchy carbs interesting. Four years ago I was obese. To make a long story short, I basically did everything our hospital nutritionists would have advised me against: I completely stopped eating all processed sugars, grains and modern so-called 'healthful' fats such as rice bran, canola, vegetable, etc. I reduced my carbs substantially, and ate only meat, vegetables, nuts, full-fat dairy, eggs, cream, small amount of fruit, plenty of good fats (lard, dripping, butter, olive oil) and lost 55 kilos. All my lipid tests improved incredibly fast. My blood sugar (pre-diabetes) went from 47 to 26 (Dr was flabbergasted). Just shows me that so-called 'science' is not a god and is not perfect, and especially nutritional science. Off on a bit of a tangent there, but thanks again for your video on the virus. Much appreciated.
This is really good and makes sense. I still can't understand if this is no worse than normal flu, why are countries digging mass graves and are having their health services overwhelmed?
Thank you, Simon, for putting this into perspective. Well presented and easy for the layman to understand. The WHO, the media and the politicians have blown the matter out of proportion, needlessly instilling fear into the minds of the rank and file populations across the world. Regards.🇿🇦
Fortunately, the politicians in most countries don't listen to such an epidemiologist. Most leading scientists (infectiologists, virologists) agree more or less with the measures taken. New Zealand is anyway not a good place for observing this global epidemy, maybe he would be welcome in Sweden. I am living in the middle of Europe and can observe the courses in Italy, France, Germany, Switzerland, Austria. His Faults: 1. He thinks that if the average infected person is 80 years old and if the average life span is 81 years, he/she will die the next year anyway. Wrong. Research has shown that the average number of years lost is around 12 according to David McAllister of Glasgow University, also since much younger persons can become victims. 2. He asserts that the real number of infected maybe around 20%, leading to a low death rate. But the average realistic number is rather 2%, and the death rate is about 10 times higher than with influenza. Some tests indicate infections by other corona virus types, yielding a too high number. 3. He only considers deaths, but ignores the many survivors with heavily damaged lungs. 4. Social distancing only leads to a reproduction rate of about 1.0. Only a partial lockdown leads to a rate of 0.3 to 0.7. 4. He mentions a covid-19 relative death rate of 12%. But this covers only a smaller part of Italy. If whole Italy would have been infected alike Bergamo, the special death rate would be much higher. In the canton of Ticino, Switzerland, 3 times as many persons died as usual.
I would prefer to see a study based on known hard facts rather than partial samples -- ie. by country what were the all-cause death numbers for the months of Feb / March / April for the years 2018, 2019, 2020. Has there been a spike in deaths in 2020? That would seem a more concrete basis to extrapolate data on the effect of Covid-19.
Those all cause fatality stats are scary in every location that the covid has been left to let rip. The only way to make it less scary is to compare six weeks if covid against twelve months of a very bad flu season.
NY did a random sample test of 3000 people (which is what should have been done in the first place and why not is a good question to ask the fear mongerers.) and found the mortality rate in keeping with the flu
Because it is now IMPOSSIBLE to get the data. So many countries across the world have either: 1. Changed the death reporting time lines, so you cannot accurately compare data with previous years. 2. Instructed doctors to put CV on the death certificate, even if the patient died of something else (Hospitals in the US are paid and extra for CV and more again for putting them on a ventilator, is why their death rate is so high?). Or both. We also know that the flu shot can make the CV worse, and the countries with the highest death rates are those with the highest vax rate. We also know that statins make viral infections worse and the majority of over 65 year olds are on statins. Correlation isn't causation but is anyone looking at the data?
Your argument that Covid does not shorten life expectancy doesn't make sense. If the mean life expectancy is 80 that is based on the assumption that people are living beyond 80 and below 80 to make that average. If the people are now dying at 80 instead of 90 or 100 that would actually lower the overall average expectancy.
The average life expectancy is 78. I worked as an RN in nursing homes for years. The elderly die EVERY YEAR of viral illnesses that exacerbate their chronic conditions. They’ve lived full lives and we EXPECT that they will die after contracting these disease and it they do not, they likely will still die within the year. Guess what? Elderly who are not sickly are RECOVERING from Covid
Thanks for the information. I have been frustrated by the level of fearmongering occurring regarding this virus. Public policy should always balance risk and I can only hope that we can learn for this experience and when the next one occurs we take a different approach.
From the UK... I have worked in IT for 30 years plus... graduate in computer studies now specialising in databases, automation, data analysis and data presentation. You've done a great job Simon. Very well done indeed. When all this 'pandemic' thing kicked off, I just started downloading all the data I could get and started sharing simple excel charts with friends on Facebook that put thing into perspective - quite a few people have expressed their thanks for the info as it has helped them to worry less. With your epidemiology expertise, you've taken it to a much higher level than I could, for sure. By the way, I've also been following a low carb diet (Keto and sometimes Carnivore) for the past 3 years - I recovered good health as a result. Less inflammatory related issues. As I am somewhat in a higher risk group being over 60, I feel that I would not be badly affected by cv-19 if I got it - I may have already had it and not known. Anyway, thanks again. I feel as though I've found a brother on the other side of the world!
Would be interesting to compare population density stats for Africa & S. American countries & those whom eat a native & Western diet and prevalance of diabetes & obesity rates
What makes you think people in Africa do not eat a Western diet? I'm assuming that by "Western diet" you mean MacDonalds, lots of sugar and bad fats, preservatives etc. Well, in Africa, they take it to the extreme. It is cheap. Go the poor neighbourhoods in New York, and you'll see that's where people live on this "unhealthy Western diet." In the wealthy areas of the US, people know to spurn fast food and eat fruit and vegetables. Sadly, in Africa, this education has not yet reached even the wealthy and educated Black people. I had a colleague. University degree. Very beautiful and fashion-conscious. Always on a diet to slim down, hating her own "African hips." She got pregnant. She was so glad that now she could eat whatever she liked. Her particular favourite was Fanta. She got huge. Surprised that after giving birth she couldn't get rid of it so easily. I was just surprised that an educated person thought that when you're pregnant you don't have to worry about what you eat.
Oh my God I listened to the whole thing yeah it was dry but it was information that I could absorb and understand. And it certainly cemented my own opinion. I wanted to stay as neutral as I could while listening to this trying to consider both sides. And truly I don't see any benefit to the lock down to the wearing of masks out in public walking around in the fresh air wearing a mask while driving a car alone, wiping down surfaces in every open business, and they now say hey covid-19 does not live on surfaces. All of those scare tactics that our media put out, our main media and some of our alternative as well. It seemed to me that Democracy Now did the usual fear fear fear fear. I refuse to live my life like that. I'm 78 I only have so many heartbeats left and I want them to be filled with as much joy love compassion and Beauty as I can. I'm not going to get that isolating in my house away from everybody I love and care about namaste
Thank you for your excellent analysis! Our mayor in Las Vegas needed you at her side when she was being interviewed by CNN. This is the proof she lacked!
In the Uk - they’ve turned off the NHS for everyone except those with flu symptoms and had a huge, never ending campaign to keep people away from GPs and hospitals. People have been made so afraid of the ‘virus’ that they are dying at home of all the things that normally kill people - like heart attacks, strokes etc. People are not going to GPs if they think they may have cancer and GPs aren’t referring people for cancer screening - People have been made more afraid of the virus than they are of cancer. People in care homes have an average time before death of 5 months in normal times but now GPs aren’t going to see people in care homes even when they are seriously ill so people are dying from who knows what. Deaths in the community are now classed as covid19 deaths as no postmortems are happening, only one doctor needs to sign off each death and doctors are encouraged to say death is due to covid19. Turning off the NHS kills people and the media and government are encouraging people to keep away from the what’s left of the NHS. Is this deliberate? I’d say it has to be.
There's a US doctor who is saying there's pressure and payments to put covid on death cert's, even if the person didn't die of it. Just so long as they test positive or it's susspected. That may be part of the cog, I s'pose.
Simple. The standard American Diet is bad for you. Everyone is eating grains and seed oils, with lots of fruits and vegetables. None of which is our ancestral food. Most people have thus damaged their immune system resulting in many chronic diseases that were unknown in societies eating a proper diet. Those with a damaged immune system suffer the virus with worse outcomes.
New Zealand isn't a good representative case study to compare to the rest of the world. A trustworthy government that acts quickly and correctly, availability of supplies and PPE, people being willing to comply with restrictions etc., Population density, Amount of foreign and domestic travel, quality and availability of healthcare.
LMAO! As a Kiwi, I can assure you the NZ government is just as corrupt as the rest of the world. You do know JA trained with Blair in the UK? Our news, online and offline, is completely censored, the official channels are full of propaganda and anyone who tries to quote actual facts and evidence never gets a voice. Our death rate, like Australia, is low only because we've just come to the end of summer, people get plenty of sunshine so our vit D levels are high.
Went wrong where he applied serological testing outcomes from the USA, some of those studies are very poorly done and have no randomisation that is reliable, especially the one in California where they came up with 50-85 x more. That study used a Facebook add asking for people to come forward for testing, it likely got a much higher positive serology rate as those who hadn't been able to get an antigen test were coming forward. That paper was debunked in a Peak Prosperity video
I keep seeing different annual mortality rates so how can we verify what different "experts" are saying/showing us? Some are saying the virus is vastly increasing the normal death rate.
It's somewhat misleading to say vastly increasing. There is currently excess mortality over the 'norm' in the order of 0.033% in Europe for the 'flu season' (winter months), which is still less than excess mortality for the 2018 flu season which was ~0.041%. The flu season still has some months to go, so the 0.033% will increase, however even if it doubles it is still within fair limits. I suggest you check out www.worldometers.info/ , scroll down to HEALTH, where the current running totals of deaths are presented. For example, 4.85 million Communicable disease deaths this year, 505 thousand Road traffic accident fatalities this year. The probability of young healthy people dying in road traffic accidents is much greater, and yet this is accepted as a fair risk. I trust this will help put matters into perspective.
Why did you use the Spiked-online article? Isn’t that website a Koch sponsored website? It has a lot of biased posts. I’m just concerned that your presentation value will be questioned using a “spiked-online” article.
"If" serological surveys show the infection rate is a lot higher, then how come those asymptomatically infected with the virus or those with minimal symptoms have not infected others who subsequently need treatment. Those that are tested and found infected now seem to be linked to existing known cases they are not unknown infections(one case is at present)? This is unless those with no symptoms or minimal symptoms do not infect others.
Lockdown in China actually started on 23rd January and was extended to other provinces in late February which would suggest looking at the graph lockdown was effective.
It is good to see a case being argued with all the reasoning laid out in front of us. However, I suspect that some other epidemiologists would not agree with all the conclusions here. Does anybody know of any critical evaluations of this work, or of any New Zealand epidemiologists who draw different conclusions from the available data? Two issues that seem to arise are: why do such a high proportion of cases seem to end up in intensive care? and how should we interpret fairly regular reports of relapses and long term effects? There is surely much more data and discussion to come.
Best statistic is “excess mortality “ compared to five year averages. In the UK we are looking at 60k excess deaths over and above five year averages. This is much, much higher than seasonal flu.
Surely you would not expect to see a flattened curve of cases per million during the first 2 weeks of lockdown as infections present themselves over a 14 day period? What is the curve over the following 80 days that subsequently saw very little infections? This would show the effectiveness of the lockdown.
It shows conclusively that the politicians have not been 'following the science', so what have they been doing? Why are we being spoon fed lies on a daily and global basis?
Isn't this man from the professional group who have a long history of serious over-interpretation of any statistics as cause-and-effect and cherry picking data? Sorry, as an LCHF eater, epiemiologists are not on my list of folks to trust. Please be as sceptical of folks who tell you what you want to hear as you are of those who disagree with your beliefs
Agreed! We must all take responsibility to hear, search out and listen to viewpoints to make reasoning for ourselves, families. I follow a Renal Eating plan.
You don't have to believe anything, just do your own research. Take a look at the mortality rates, and compare them with previous years, and you'll find out that the death rate was higher in 2017/2018, all over the world. So why the panic, all of a sudden?
How about a Nobel Peace Prize Scientist. Not an epidemiologists that comes to the same conclusion looking at the data. ruclips.net/video/bl-sZdfLcEk/видео.html
? How to fudge statistics! The centre of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic started in Wuhan city. Wuhan lockdown started 23 Jan (not Feb!), with roads, rail, airports shut. Other areas quickly followed, radiating out from Hubei province, level of restrictions depending on degree of community transmissions. The graph you showed clearly reflected the success of the lockdown on significantly reducing community transmissions (which included separating all positive covid-19 cases in quarantine facilities, reducing household transmissions) .
If the virus is not shortening lives, then we should not see an increase in the seasonal death rate. Can we say this in places like New York, Italy, France, Uk etc? Do the statistics support this hypothesis?
Have you considered the death rate of those people if they had had the flu shot at the start of the winter flu season? It's speculated that Italy had a new round of flu shots at the start of winter 2019 and this increased their chances of dying from this civid outbreak.
not speculation but it did happen in Italy and china too, I think. There was an animal culture used to make these vaccines too. Prof. Dolores Cahill says that dogs were used in these. She also says dogs are quite likely to possibly have corona (SARS) already in them. I think this falls in line with what is called the cytokine storm. Sorry but I'm just recollecting loosely but yeah, there's documentation out there to confirm this if you look 👍
Excellent video. But since May 5 much information has emerged regarding the correlation between the severity of the lockdown and the subsequent deaths per million. There appears to be no correlation. However NZ seems to be the outlier. I would suggest that this is simply because NZ had fewer people infected to begin with because of their early intervention and then the draconian lockdown which delayed any further spread. I also suggest that this is going to release the whirlwind as restrictions are lifted and travellers are allowed back in. But even so - the deaths that will occur will still be restricted to the demographics you highlight. Either way - the practically universal lockdown throughout the world will prove to have been the most misguided and catastrophic imposition ever imposed on the human race. I feel that the response from all over the world will NOT be the expected one!
I accept the reasoning, but am perplexed by some accurate stats & well designed studies from other countries. (Research papers can be deeply flawed) Antibody study Spain - randomised sample throughout Spain +Canary Islands of 70,000. 5% had been infected - Deaths 27,000. Therefore Infection mortality ratio 1.16% (Higher than the stats given here.) Given population size & no further action after lock down, there would be a further 227,240 deaths to achieve 70% natural immunity UK - Office of National statstics for 2020. By week 16 there had been an excess of ALL deaths by 49,000 above the 5 year fluctuations (from eg 'flue.) We have to account for this sudden increase in deaths by 37% which is the highest since records began & started when Covid19 cases began to increase. When the UK government only included deaths in nursing homes (at a late stage) the mean age at death increased to approx 70. (Those in care homes, the very frail & elderly are not admitted to hospital in the UK because they cannot be helped by so doing) Before that, we only knew the mean age of those admitted to hospital with severe Covid19 = 63, which means that 50% are under the age of 63. That is the group where there we had 20,000 deaths (This is similar to Italy - mean age admitted to hospital 61) Therefore life span IS being shortened in some, & WOULD BE shortened in large numbers if hospital resources were insufficient to meet the needs of this group of people. Only 5% of those admitted to hospital die. (Stats direct from hospitals). So infection mortality rate would increase considerably in this event The lock down in the UK WITHOUT additional measures to contain the virus as in S.Korea, will only reduce case numbers to a level where hospitals can cope & rapidly peak again once lifted. S.Korea contained the virus early by extensive testing & was able to target lock downs to small areas, thus keeping most of the economy going & mortality rate low. Re dying from or with Covid19 there is no doubt that those who die in hospitals in the UK die FROM Covid19 on the grounds of sophisticated investigations showing disease which is never seen in their co morbidities & affects many internal organs. Verified by post mortem examination. The UK went for "herd immunity" - "let it spread unhindered to gain natural immunity." Hospitals became overwhelmed - mainly insufficient staff, for the newly built field hospitals. We are currently running low on oxygen. We've done the worst possible! A very interesting talk, especially about the high level of naturally aquired immunity from very mild or asymptomatic disease in NZ. Different countries are getting different results. I'm asking more questions than getting answers. NZ & Sweden both have very low population density - NZ - 18.3 / KmSqu, Sweden - 24/Km Squ, whereas England - 430/KmSqu Questions such as the amount of virus we are inhale (loading dose) before we get disease. With a low exposure disease may not be apparent but produce immunity (subclinical) Questions like exposure to sunlight & VitD levels. Vit D modulates the immune response & reduces the main complication causing death in Covid19 - cytokine storm. Good intracellular zinc levels prevent the virus from replicating once it has entered cells. The study which indicated that hydroxychloroquine was of no use, gave it too late, ie after the virus had replicated sufficiently to disemminate through the body. I would like to see more attention given to these factors which are simple & easy to address in attempt to prevent / significantly reduce the fatal complications, without causing disruption to society. Genetic ancestry studies in Cambridge UK & Iceland have not analysed sufficient global specimens to be statistically significant. The virus is mutating slower than usual for a RNA virus - so no worries there yet! Iceland commented that SARSCov - 2 has been in the UK for longer than realised, but deaths were actually lower than the seasonal flue' fluctuations before Feb. I think that more information is coming to light by the day as we understand the disease more. Figures alone, & specialisation in only one subject can mislead, & result in inappropriate action with either excessive damage to the economy = job loss & mass unemployment, or large numbers of deaths, both of which are un necessary if the right method of control is used. Finally a concern of doctors is WHETHER there are later after effects from Covid19 & how common they might be - this is a big unknown with a completely new virus. There is no need to panic. IMO different countries with different demographics need to handle it differently.
Good work, but one point of critique: serosurvey is not reliable to get a better picture because innate immunity, the first barrier of our immune system, will clear a lot of infections (just as with rhinoviruses) especially in children, without a secondary cellular immune response with the production of antibodies. So you actually cannot swap serosurvy for immunity because a lot of infections (we do not know how much) are 'cleared' without the formation of IgG or IgM antibodies. Lockdown of course, doesn't work, as was already published bij the WHO end of 2019, something they seem to have forgotten in the las few months. Also, PCR testing is useless in epidemiological respect because it will not give accurate information of clinical manifestation and doesn't tell you if a + tested person has (serious) symptoms or even (severe) disease and beholds no info on the exact moment of infection i.e. +test can mean cleared infection, recent infection, ongoing infection or even just cross- an transfer of RNA without complete visions being present; it has no bearing on prognosis etc. Healthy criticism!
US Center for Disease Control publishes data for each flu season. From that data come facts such as: the 2017-2018 season in the US was severe and more deaths occurred; the 2018-2019 season was longer than is usual, about 5 months. In the USA, so far, from the end of January 2020 till the end of May 2020, with deaths hovering at around 90,000, Covid-19 looks to be a bit more deadly than the flu has been. Rates of fatality would drop sharply if the USA would begin operating under consistent guidelines in all states and test a high percentage of the populace. We’d then be able to provide supported isolation for those who test positive, contact trace, and then continue to test. That would limit disease transmission and free us to open up our lives and our economy.
In 2018 I lost my dad and then my job a few weeks later. I became dangerously destructive and hopelessly depressed. In the depth of my despair, I called out to Lord Jesus, and He spoke to me. His presence is unimaginably beautiful. Lord Jesus, please forgive us and have mercy on us.
There is an obvious error in the presentation. It’s is substantially more people than 50% that needs to live longer then average age. This is due to the lack of people reaching 190 years vs. children dying very young.
Lamz That is very different where you are in the world. I don’t know if you agree or dissenter to what I wrote but I will give an example. If the average age is 80 and one child dies at the first year. Then roughly ten people needs to live to 88 to keep the average at 80. Life expectancy is not a symmetrical bell shape nor any other symmetry around the average age.
Delaware started it's first stages of reopening on 27th March. Big deal and how many people are even going to go to Delaware? What, almost the smallest state in the US. Barely a dot on the map. If you cough there you're in the Atlantic. Perhaps you should have brought up Sweeden instead. They have a population of less than half that of Australia and they're 2896 dead compared to Australias 96 I think that's a far better comparison. Don't you? Sweeden did'n't lock down at all. Yes Australia made mistakes with that ship, letting them go in Sydney or their death rate would be far less than 96. I'll go for the lock down any day, I'll take lives over money any day.
Why won't Australian and NZ news stations interview this specialist and have a balanced view of this drama? Rather susspicious.
Why is he sitting around making RUclips videos?
He has no facts
Because W.H.O. didn’t sanction it so the clip will probably be removed 😏
The same reason dr Fauci hasent had one patient.
Elanaigo, "drs have there own personal time" no way.haha
'Wow!!!!" ~ Thank you!!! I've been listening/watching videos from overseas epidemiologist's, and here we have one of our own right here in NZ. Why isn't this guy being listened to by the politicians?
The politicians are actively NOT listening and making sure we don't either.. The information was censored by removing it from mainstream media.
Phill by the way what's going on over in new Zealand I'm hearing some crazy things
This is far too accurate and logical. RUclips will likely delete it.
Yes it runs counter to the WHO narrative. Therefore according to RUclips's misguided policy, it should have been taken down.
RUclips/ Google are culling anything that challenges the fake narrative.
He made a bunch of errors. Check the actual date of China's lockdown.
Check the IFR (infection fatality rate) of Johan Geisecke or dr. Battacharya
ruclips.net/video/2SdUmsMLW0o/видео.html
ruclips.net/video/289NWm85eas/видео.html
Check the IFR of the Diamond Princess
cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/diamond_cruise_cfr_estimates.html Note that this is an old study and 14 people have now died (twice as many as when their calcs were done)
Swedens IFR is 0.55%
www.sfgate.com/science/article/Sweden-herd-immunity-experiment-backfires-covid-15289437.php?fbclid=IwAR0Gabg7DdrW_m5DE3iwxous7R72jXy3fxhcfY6xoW3oCCxH-rolBYfNMog
They did blood testing (serological tests like this fellow talked about: antibody testing) and found 730,000 (7.3% of 10M) people in sweden had covid-19 and 4000 had died already. This of course will rise as the remaining 24K out of 33K cases move from active to cured, or fatalities. So 0.55% is a minimum.
Please do not trust any authority and double check everyone. This guys does some pretty suspect things with data from the US and just assumes it applies to New Zealand, which is crazy, since New Zealand has a different strain of the virus that North America, and there is no reason to think the testing strategy in one country should apply to the other.
different strains:
www.news-medical.net/news/20200331/Eight-strains-of-coronavirus-afflicting-the-world.aspx
Isn’t that the truth. RUclips and Facebook have become the anti logic platforms.
😂😂 yup, knowledge is power.
How is this talk not blowing up? Seriously. This is so much better than almost any of the other videos out there.
Peeps need to share it more around NZ😊
media is corrupt
why on earth is this man not showing up in our national news here in NZ why has he not been a lead on the news
censorship is alive and well in NZ it seems; we in the US hear that the media will not allow him to be interviewed or spoken to; (Govt orders): long live the freedom of those living in NZ.
Pru Broughton because his epidemiology is wrong, he uses a non peer reviewed paper with many flaws in data selection to extrapolate it to NZ
@@ingies2011 Are you an epidemiologist or statistician? What's your level of education?
@@geoffarden917 If he is being censored, why are we able to view this video and many other videos of him as well as articles, interviews etc? He is NOT being censored anywhere.
@@henrydevelopment What's yours?
Clear as day, they got this dead wrong.
Anyone who still believes the hysteria narrative is likely very gullible or not very intelligent
Thank you for sharing your knowledge and research 🤗 I work in the health sector and was sucked in2 the fear of the first lockdown but now as I do my own research listening to experts like you, I realise I need to stand up (hoping more people will join us) . This information WILL quickly spread on social media 👍 'Namaste' 🙏
Dad died of SARS I in 2002 because a patient was brought into the Baylor Irving ICU and placed in an adjacent ICU room. Within 2 days, my dad, who was there for a different reason - high blood pressure leading to CHF--my dad became infected from SARS. He would not have died if he had not been exposed to SARS. SARS was highly infectious and may have gone through the air system. However he caught it, he ended up with SARS in his body, on a respirator, and twenty two days later, we lost him. Was CHF an accurate description? I doubt he would have died if he hadn't been infected by SARS. I hate the way people are dismissing people who happen to be already in the hospital, dealing with a different illness--and if they get infected with SARS II - Covid19--they aren't able to withstand the ravenous impact to their lungs. As an epidemiologist, can you not help correct this denial bias? It seems false to look on the bright side that Covid 19 is a minor player, as if the people who died while sick w something else would have died anyway. Please help change this bias. Thank you!
Leslie, with all due respect, SARS was at least 10 times more deadly, probably more. My father has died in Jan this year and I would not blame Corona, although he might have been positive, but after chemo, lymphoma, melanoma, grossly enlarged spleen and kidney failure ... Covid 19 is a minor player. He also died of CHF, btw.
Leslie, thank you for bringing that up. I too am an epidemiologist and in no way I agree with the minimization that my colleague of profession here presents. When he and others speak of a differentiation on whether a patient dies from Covid or with covid, that’s clinically impossible to determine. Usually in death reports are you will see the following: deceased due to multiple organ failure etc etc etc... What does that tell you? That doctors can’t determine whether this or that is the cause of death, but what we can certainly understand is that mortality rates that include all these aspects are more accurate. I believe that my colleague of profession here doesn’t show is that if you want to compare two diseases to each other, let’s look at the number of deaths always in the same specific region so that confounding factors can be prevented. The seasonal flu for last year caused about 12-61k deaths in one year in US. We have reached 115k not so long ago in the United States and we have yet another half of the year to go. I yet have to find understanding on how does this non sensical comparison even come to certain brains.
@@denniszd4801 - what a problem this all is..... 12-61K deaths? does nobody know for sure? could it have been 120k?
At the end of the day the underlying factors are so so important, so at the end of it all someone somewhere should be addressing them... basically we have created a grossly metabolically unfit modern society with a modern mass produced diet that is leading to all the factors that end up allowing virus such as SARS and COVID-19 to kill us. Let's not forget that since the SAD was pubished in 1970 that coronary heart disease, obesity, diabetes have rocketed.
Somebody needs to grab hold of 'government' and give it a good shake. Oh and the scientists who ignore contrary evidence to publish what their sponsors want to see should never be allowed in a lab again - and sued for malpractice.
Even if your colleage seems to have gone a littel to far one way - well it at least helps balance the bias presented by government and the mass news media.
A very 'dry' presentation - but VERY worthwhile sticking with it through to the end because of all the great information - thank you.
Why is it 'dry'; because it contains no bullshit?
@@mikehardwicke23 Probably synonymous with "boring." Maybe that's what Joanne meant with "dry."
I found it easier to listen to by increasing the playback speed. Just to 1.25 of normal. Makes it sound like there’s more voice modulation and emphasis.. even if it’s not real, it’s easier to continue paying attention.
Not dry, fascinating!
Epidemiology is dry. That's the problem with humans now with 24/7 dopamine stimulation with media and social media. It drives said media to sensationalize everything which turns into clickbait and fake news. I'll take dry truth or entertaining lies all day.
Thank you for your time, preparation and effort in sharing that with us.
There needs to be an inquiry into the COVID-19 psychosis. How a virus with a negligible threat to healthy working-age people caused governments to unnecessarily damage economies with ill-considered lock-down policies. Following, a study of the illness and death related to the resulting recession.
Media hysteria and loose factual reporting. Sensational editors. Appalling media standards being accepted by many of us!!
Mike Crake Damn right!
Where are you facts? Maybe they are in Trump’s golf bag?
Mike Crake we gave up freedom!!!
The media have blood on their hands, all of the suicides due to hysteria, fear, people losing their jobs, child abuse etc. They should be ashamed.
@@wmp3346 I hope you are eating your words now.... since the second wave is proving that he has read the facts correctly.
"Causes of deaths are being swapped on the death certificate".
OK, so why do ONS (UK Govt stats) total death figures, show a drastic increase in deaths on a week to week basis compared to the comparable average of the previous 10 years?
It is quite clear that more people are dying. The figure is so much higher, it's not even debatable.
The same can be said for U.S., French, Italian and Spanish deaths.
Look at the 5 year average, when overlayed there is a huge peak, you could attribute these to covid. Check out Dr John Campbells videos
Simply because more people who are at risk are getting infected due to an increased R0 and no vaccine.
So given this hypothesis (ie: corona virus is not as fatal as annual flu) we SHOULD see an annual fatality in New York of 20,000+ deaths every 3 months. Why don't we?? Why aren't people over 80 dying off EVERY year at the same rate as during this current pandemic IF the flu is more deadly than covid? Separately, I agree that lock down in rural areas that are very spread out is counter productive. Protect the high risk and let the young and healthy create our herd immunity.
WHO lied about the #’s. Countries panicked and then there’s an element of Big Pharma, and the push for extending the virus so a vaccine can be created and money made. Every epidemiologist (real scientist, not 30+ year lobbyist gov employee) is saying the same thing, this virus goes away by itself. We should have kept kids in school, people over 65 should have stayed isolated and no mass shutdown. Even with massively dishonest + inflated #’s - death by covid is not what were told. More people are infected than #’s show, death rates are in line with the seasonal flu (slightly elevated in the elderly). The media lies and video take downs will not be able to hide this truth forever.
TIME TO GET BACK TO WORK!
A fascinating presentation. Thank you. I wish that world governments were listening to people like you!!!!!
I don't agree in part with the presentation. Is not if the People under 65 die or not, is how many People get sick at the same time, so the Health system have the infrastructure to treat them so it doesn't colapse.
The world has to be turned upside down for the concerns of the health care system that does not save the people who die anyway?
indeed Andres: "is how many People get sick at the same time" in many countries, the hospitals are quite empty. We understand in nz where dr thornley is based, that over 2000 public hospital beds are empty, as a precautionary principle; there were up to 14 people at any one time with corona in those empty beds. Here in the US, we have the same story.
So what would you suggest? Locking people up obviously didn't work, as you could see.
As soon as they learned that hospitals can cope the lockdown should have stopped. But then NZ and other countries decided we need to keep going till near elimination of covid19. That's where I reach my limit of tolerance for such restriction of our human liberties and disruption of our livelihoods. Enough already!
The voice of reason.
Thanks. I had no doubt about this. We're being played.
Thank you for such a sensible, scientific approach! Thank you!!
What a relief. A kiwi expert who knows what’s going on. I was getting depressed thinking Swedes are the only ones using their swede.
Where are our serological tests?
They're illegal. No, seriously
That is absolutely wrong. You cannot take New Zealand which is the least affected country in the world and work your calculations on that. Second, 0.1% is the CFR, not the IFR of flu. German study found an IFR of about 0.3% which is very high after following a large sample of population in a small village. Im sure the IFR would ultimately get probably lower than that but it would never reach as low as you state.
You cannot take New Zealand. Well he just did, and many many agree with him, the ones that do not die from covid_19 with any luck.
Assumptions mean nothing, look at the number of deaths, and compare these with previous years. After you've done that please explain to me why we allow high-school student Bill Gates to decide whether we are allowed to go outside again. This is totally ridiculous! Wake up, my friend.
In my neighborhood about 80 percent are unemployed. Wondering how to pay rent ..feed the kids...car payment..insurance..no daycare..gas and electric..cant afford to go get tested....humans are idiots.
Cannot agree with you more, John! All the best to you.
Tragic situations, but we really need to get over the concern to get tested. It is of little importance.
Hope things work out well with you soon. Which country are you living? South Africa?
This is literally the stupidest thing societies have ever done
This comment section is Idiocracy incarnate.
The danger of SARS-COV-2 isn't it's mortality rate, it's its R0 of between 2.5 and 3.5. If left unchecked the number of cases will increase exponentially. Influenza has an R0 value of 1. If you really want to compare the two, consider that entire classes and sometimes grades get quarantined at home once a certain number of students get the flu. Statistically speaking, schools would have been cancelled by now anyway due to high infection rates; infections which the world's health care systems cannot cope with right now. I can only imagine the same thing would happen to companies if workers just went on like nothing was wrong. Please, enlighten me, what would New Zealand do if its medical system completely collapsed?
Agreed! I am wondering why comments are so uniform too. Maybe youtube & fb tend to pigeon hole people then these groups become echo chambers. It's almost spooky sometimes how this happens. I've noticed it happening to some of my friends. I enjoy being widely read and open minded but very critical.
Sensationalist, ignorant crap. You obviously do not understand the SIR model. "Please, enlighten me, what would New Zealand do if its medical system completely collapsed?" is a logical fallacy.
Absolutely agree. I can't believe people are this retarded. Lockdowns are expensive but Denmark Finland and Norway are FAR better off than Sweden. They can never get those lives back. The care home argument doesnt stack up now those people died a month ago. This interview is brilliant. ruclips.net/video/0k84gE7ObuQ/видео.html
As a kinesiologist, I tested my own body for it's reaction to Covid19, when it first appeared. Th bio feedback gave me a negative. No threat. . . This lockdown has been abominable in "almost" every way. Maybe it taught some of us lessons. Things we had time to think about, but what is interesting to us, has been life threatening to many others and many others have and will die from the lockdowns to come. This is the scientific proof in the process. . . . Excellent material
Finally someone who knows how to analyze data, however I do take issue with doing population density of a country, unless you integrate the area to come up with a more specific population density which is comparable with other areas as I have shown for trying to do a comparison of Colorado’s counties without taking into account the unbalanced population density within each county.
What this says is that the transmission mechanism is concentration driven, the higher population density the higher number of cases, which is analogues to the exposure level, high exposure level environments have higher transmission rates, which suggest that if you analyze your environments and model potential exposure levels, then changes can be made in high exposure level environments to lower the exposure levels mechanically or through treatment, then when most environments are rendered low exposure level environments then no social distancing or PPE will be requires to prevent the transmission of this virus or future viruses.
Scientist must speak up with scientific analysis and solutions to scientific problems!
Thank you. You have answered many questions for me.
Thank you. I will now search to see if you have any new videos!
If you want to know what is really going on ask your local hospital icu team. I know several and they have told me it’s a sh!tfest. If you have nurses you know crying to you about how bad it is then either they are lying or this dude hasn’t got his maths correct. The people on frontline of this in Europe are seeing it firsthand and even with social distancing etc it’s like a war zone for them.
I fully agree. Met a lady at the pharmacy yesterday who was sick with COVID, together with her daughter. Very bad. She was very angry about the demonstrations against the lockdown (which is very mild here in Germany). I got the impression this guy cherry-picks the numbers. Doesn't see the forest for the trees.
Not in Canada. Hospitals are 'dead'. Workers are being sent home early. Everywhere. Stop freaking out because someone you know got sick from COVID> More importantly...why did they get sick? Wake up call?
@@joseftraunmueller3844 It is not everybody else's problem that those people got sick from COVID. Lockdowns are immune destroying in themselves. Do your research.
You met a woman at the pharmacy who HAS Covid 19....did it concern you she was at the pharmacy, meeting you, and not self isolating? 😂
Very interesting. Thanks for going to the effort to post this. I also found your comments on fat vs sugar and starchy carbs interesting. Four years ago I was obese. To make a long story short, I basically did everything our hospital nutritionists would have advised me against: I completely stopped eating all processed sugars, grains and modern so-called 'healthful' fats such as rice bran, canola, vegetable, etc. I reduced my carbs substantially, and ate only meat, vegetables, nuts, full-fat dairy, eggs, cream, small amount of fruit, plenty of good fats (lard, dripping, butter, olive oil) and lost 55 kilos. All my lipid tests improved incredibly fast. My blood sugar (pre-diabetes) went from 47 to 26 (Dr was flabbergasted). Just shows me that so-called 'science' is not a god and is not perfect, and especially nutritional science. Off on a bit of a tangent there, but thanks again for your video on the virus. Much appreciated.
You are a champ!
Thanks for the numbers.
This is really good and makes sense. I still can't understand if this is no worse than normal flu, why are countries digging mass graves and are having their health services overwhelmed?
Less fear after hearing this talk.
Thank you, Simon, for putting this into perspective. Well presented and easy for the layman to understand. The WHO, the media and the politicians have blown the matter out of proportion, needlessly instilling fear into the minds of the rank and file populations across the world. Regards.🇿🇦
Fortunately, the politicians in most countries don't listen to such an epidemiologist. Most leading scientists (infectiologists, virologists) agree more or less with the measures taken. New Zealand is anyway not a good place for observing this global epidemy, maybe he would be welcome in Sweden. I am living in the middle of Europe and can observe the courses in Italy, France, Germany, Switzerland, Austria. His Faults: 1. He thinks that if the average infected person is 80 years old and if the average life span is 81 years, he/she will die the next year anyway. Wrong. Research has shown that the average number of years lost is around 12 according to David McAllister of Glasgow University, also since much younger persons can become victims. 2. He asserts that the real number of infected maybe around 20%, leading to a low death rate. But the average realistic number is rather 2%, and the death rate is about 10 times higher than with influenza. Some tests indicate infections by other corona virus types, yielding a too high number. 3. He only considers deaths, but ignores the many survivors with heavily damaged lungs. 4. Social distancing only leads to a reproduction rate of about 1.0. Only a partial lockdown leads to a rate of 0.3 to 0.7. 4. He mentions a covid-19 relative death rate of 12%. But this covers only a smaller part of Italy. If whole Italy would have been infected alike Bergamo, the special death rate would be much higher. In the canton of Ticino, Switzerland, 3 times as many persons died as usual.
I agree. The analysis here is complete rubbish. Even Johan Giesecke would not agree with it.
I would prefer to see a study based on known hard facts rather than partial samples -- ie. by country what were the all-cause death numbers for the months of Feb / March / April for the years 2018, 2019, 2020. Has there been a spike in deaths in 2020? That would seem a more concrete basis to extrapolate data on the effect of Covid-19.
Yeah, so why are we panicing , when we don't have good enough data anyway🤷.
Those all cause fatality stats are scary in every location that the covid has been left to let rip. The only way to make it less scary is to compare six weeks if covid against twelve months of a very bad flu season.
NY did a random sample test of 3000 people (which is what should have been done in the first place and why not is a good question to ask the fear mongerers.) and found the mortality rate in keeping with the flu
Because it is now IMPOSSIBLE to get the data. So many countries across the world have either:
1. Changed the death reporting time lines, so you cannot accurately compare data with previous years.
2. Instructed doctors to put CV on the death certificate, even if the patient died of something else (Hospitals in the US are paid and extra for CV and more again for putting them on a ventilator, is why their death rate is so high?). Or both.
We also know that the flu shot can make the CV worse, and the countries with the highest death rates are those with the highest vax rate. We also know that statins make viral infections worse and the majority of over 65 year olds are on statins. Correlation isn't causation but is anyone looking at the data?
Such an excellent presentation. Thank you Dr. Thornley.
Your argument that Covid does not shorten life expectancy doesn't make sense.
If the mean life expectancy is 80 that is based on the assumption that people are living beyond 80 and below 80 to make that average.
If the people are now dying at 80 instead of 90 or 100 that would actually lower the overall average expectancy.
The average life expectancy is 78. I worked as an RN in nursing homes for years. The elderly die EVERY YEAR of viral illnesses that exacerbate their chronic conditions. They’ve lived full lives and we EXPECT that they will die after contracting these disease and it they do not, they likely will still die within the year. Guess what? Elderly who are not sickly are RECOVERING from Covid
Thanks for the information. I have been frustrated by the level of fearmongering occurring regarding this virus. Public policy should always balance risk and I can only hope that we can learn for this experience and when the next one occurs we take a different approach.
From the UK... I have worked in IT for 30 years plus... graduate in computer studies now specialising in databases, automation, data analysis and data presentation. You've done a great job Simon. Very well done indeed. When all this 'pandemic' thing kicked off, I just started downloading all the data I could get and started sharing simple excel charts with friends on Facebook that put thing into perspective - quite a few people have expressed their thanks for the info as it has helped them to worry less. With your epidemiology expertise, you've taken it to a much higher level than I could, for sure. By the way, I've also been following a low carb diet (Keto and sometimes Carnivore) for the past 3 years - I recovered good health as a result. Less inflammatory related issues. As I am somewhat in a higher risk group being over 60, I feel that I would not be badly affected by cv-19 if I got it - I may have already had it and not known. Anyway, thanks again. I feel as though I've found a brother on the other side of the world!
Would be interesting to compare population density stats for Africa & S. American countries & those whom eat a native & Western diet and prevalance of diabetes & obesity rates
What makes you think people in Africa do not eat a Western diet? I'm assuming that by "Western diet" you mean MacDonalds, lots of sugar and bad fats, preservatives etc. Well, in Africa, they take it to the extreme. It is cheap. Go the poor neighbourhoods in New York, and you'll see that's where people live on this "unhealthy Western diet." In the wealthy areas of the US, people know to spurn fast food and eat fruit and vegetables. Sadly, in Africa, this education has not yet reached even the wealthy and educated Black people. I had a colleague. University degree. Very beautiful and fashion-conscious. Always on a diet to slim down, hating her own "African hips." She got pregnant. She was so glad that now she could eat whatever she liked. Her particular favourite was Fanta. She got huge. Surprised that after giving birth she couldn't get rid of it so easily. I was just surprised that an educated person thought that when you're pregnant you don't have to worry about what you eat.
Oh my God I listened to the whole thing yeah it was dry but it was information that I could absorb and understand. And it certainly cemented my own opinion. I wanted to stay as neutral as I could while listening to this trying to consider both sides. And truly I don't see any benefit to the lock down to the wearing of masks out in public walking around in the fresh air wearing a mask while driving a car alone, wiping down surfaces in every open business, and they now say hey covid-19 does not live on surfaces. All of those scare tactics that our media put out, our main media and some of our alternative as well. It seemed to me that Democracy Now did the usual fear fear fear fear. I refuse to live my life like that. I'm 78 I only have so many heartbeats left and I want them to be filled with as much joy love compassion and Beauty as I can. I'm not going to get that isolating in my house away from everybody I love and care about namaste
Thank you. I've been researching and your video confirms what I've read and watched.
Excellent! Thank you for sharing.
Thank you for your excellent analysis! Our mayor in Las Vegas needed you at her side when she was being interviewed by CNN. This is the proof she lacked!
How do explain the excess all cause mortality in the UK and New York?
In the Uk - they’ve turned off the NHS for everyone except those with flu symptoms and had a huge, never ending campaign to keep people away from GPs and hospitals. People have been made so afraid of the ‘virus’ that they are dying at home of all the things that normally kill people - like heart attacks, strokes etc. People are not going to GPs if they think they may have cancer and GPs aren’t referring people for cancer screening - People have been made more afraid of the virus than they are of cancer.
People in care homes have an average time before death of 5 months in normal times but now GPs aren’t going to see people in care homes even when they are seriously ill so people are dying from who knows what. Deaths in the community are now classed as covid19 deaths as no postmortems are happening, only one doctor needs to sign off each death and doctors are encouraged to say death is due to covid19. Turning off the NHS kills people and the media and government are encouraging people to keep away from the what’s left of the NHS. Is this deliberate? I’d say it has to be.
could it be local factors Jon? ..
on a separate note, some do suggest the extensive >44
Have you compared these with 2017/2018?
There's a US doctor who is saying there's pressure and payments to put covid on death cert's, even if the person didn't die of it. Just so long as they test positive or it's susspected. That may be part of the cog, I s'pose.
Simple. The standard American Diet is bad for you. Everyone is eating grains and seed oils, with lots of fruits and vegetables. None of which is our ancestral food. Most people have thus damaged their immune system resulting in many chronic diseases that were unknown in societies eating a proper diet. Those with a damaged immune system suffer the virus with worse outcomes.
Thanks for your clear presentation. I will pass this info on to others as well.
Thank so much for this video. I wish here in America you had advised our president instead of cdc. We have all lost so much because of the lockdowns.
He should be liable for his advice. If schools reopen with negative results, Dr Thornley should bear responsibility.
And who will you hold responsible if he is correct?
New Zealand isn't a good representative case study to compare to the rest of the world. A trustworthy government that acts quickly and correctly, availability of supplies and PPE, people being willing to comply with restrictions etc., Population density, Amount of foreign and domestic travel, quality and availability of healthcare.
LMAO! As a Kiwi, I can assure you the NZ government is just as corrupt as the rest of the world. You do know JA trained with Blair in the UK? Our news, online and offline, is completely censored, the official channels are full of propaganda and anyone who tries to quote actual facts and evidence never gets a voice. Our death rate, like Australia, is low only because we've just come to the end of summer, people get plenty of sunshine so our vit D levels are high.
Awesome presentation 💚 clear and systematic analysis that I can share with friends whose first language isn't English 💚
Went wrong where he applied serological testing outcomes from the USA, some of those studies are very poorly done and have no randomisation that is reliable, especially the one in California where they came up with 50-85 x more. That study used a Facebook add asking for people to come forward for testing, it likely got a much higher positive serology rate as those who hadn't been able to get an antigen test were coming forward. That paper was debunked in a Peak Prosperity video
Yes I agree. Those tests are complete garbage as Michael Osterholm stated too many false positives and negatives.
Neil Ferguson should be replaced by someone who explains the facts clearly like Simon Thornley....
He should be put on inquiry
Thank you!
I keep seeing different annual mortality rates so how can we verify what different "experts" are saying/showing us? Some are saying the virus is vastly increasing the normal death rate.
It's somewhat misleading to say vastly increasing. There is currently excess mortality over the 'norm' in the order of 0.033% in Europe for the 'flu season' (winter months), which is still less than excess mortality for the 2018 flu season which was ~0.041%. The flu season still has some months to go, so the 0.033% will increase, however even if it doubles it is still within fair limits.
I suggest you check out www.worldometers.info/ , scroll down to HEALTH, where the current running totals of deaths are presented. For example, 4.85 million Communicable disease deaths this year, 505 thousand Road traffic accident fatalities this year. The probability of young healthy people dying in road traffic accidents is much greater, and yet this is accepted as a fair risk. I trust this will help put matters into perspective.
600 doctors warn Trump, lockdown deadlier than covid19
Thanks Hayley for sending me here
Why did you use the Spiked-online article? Isn’t that website a Koch sponsored website? It has a lot of biased posts. I’m just concerned that your presentation value will be questioned using a “spiked-online” article.
Do you mean this, www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/dec/07/us-billionaires-hard-right-britain-spiked-magazine-charles-david-koch-foundation
Thanks love real science and truthful scientific analysis
Interesting presentation!
"If" serological surveys show the infection rate is a lot higher, then how come those asymptomatically infected with the virus or those with minimal symptoms have not infected others who subsequently need treatment. Those that are tested and found infected now seem to be linked to existing known cases they are not unknown infections(one case is at present)? This is unless those with no symptoms or minimal symptoms do not infect others.
Lockdown in China actually started on 23rd January and was extended to other provinces in late February which would suggest looking at the graph lockdown was effective.
Absolutely correct.
Thank You Simon! Now if Jacinda will just listen to you, maybe the insanity will stop!
Thank you Doctor. Excellent presentation. You are certainly in the majority opinion on this matter.
It is good to see a case being argued with all the reasoning laid out in front of us. However, I suspect that some other epidemiologists would not agree with all the conclusions here. Does anybody know of any critical evaluations of this work, or of any New Zealand epidemiologists who draw different conclusions from the available data? Two issues that seem to arise are: why do such a high proportion of cases seem to end up in intensive care? and how should we interpret fairly regular reports of relapses and long term effects? There is surely much more data and discussion to come.
Best statistic is “excess mortality “ compared to five year averages. In the UK we are looking at 60k excess deaths over and above five year averages. This is much, much higher than seasonal flu.
Good talk, thanks Simon.
Surely you would not expect to see a flattened curve of cases per million during the first 2 weeks of lockdown as infections present themselves over a 14 day period? What is the curve over the following 80 days that subsequently saw very little infections? This would show the effectiveness of the lockdown.
CAN WE GET AN UPDATE FOR THIS VIDEO?
Where is the app, I'd like to download it.
Very interesting and he makes some very good points
It shows conclusively that the politicians have not been 'following the science', so what have they been doing? Why are we being spoon fed lies on a daily and global basis?
Actual evidence-based analysis, lacking political bias. How refreshing! Thanks.
How do you know it was not biased, he said nothing of note in my opinion. I would say he a total right winger
Thanks , very interesting take on this issue
Problem is governments around the world will not admit that mistakes were made in their actions as it would cause massive uproar.
Thank you, excellent presentation, Dr Thornley. Question- has your opinion changed now, two weeks later and with more US deaths reported?
Isn't this man from the professional group who have a long history of serious over-interpretation of any statistics as cause-and-effect and cherry picking data? Sorry, as an LCHF eater, epiemiologists are not on my list of folks to trust.
Please be as sceptical of folks who tell you what you want to hear as you are of those who disagree with your beliefs
Agreed! We must all take responsibility to hear, search out and listen to viewpoints to make reasoning for ourselves, families. I follow a Renal Eating plan.
You don't have to believe anything, just do your own research. Take a look at the mortality rates, and compare them with previous years, and you'll find out that the death rate was higher in 2017/2018, all over the world. So why the panic, all of a sudden?
no, he actually argues that saturated fat is healthy. I remember a lecture about that last year.
How about a Nobel Peace Prize Scientist. Not an epidemiologists that comes to the same conclusion looking at the data.
ruclips.net/video/bl-sZdfLcEk/видео.html
Fascinating. :) Thank you.
? How to fudge statistics! The centre of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic started in Wuhan city. Wuhan lockdown started 23 Jan (not Feb!), with roads, rail, airports shut. Other areas quickly followed, radiating out from Hubei province, level of restrictions depending on degree of community transmissions. The graph you showed clearly reflected the success of the lockdown on significantly reducing community transmissions (which included separating all positive covid-19 cases in quarantine facilities, reducing household transmissions) .
I think county or city density would be more useful than state density. The US is large and spread out, but has some large, dense cities.
Thanks again.
If the virus is not shortening lives, then we should not see an increase in the seasonal death rate. Can we say this in places like New York, Italy, France, Uk etc? Do the statistics support this hypothesis?
Thank you for posting.
Thank you for your analysis. Very clear and concise
Thank you so much for your information in your careful presentation namaste
Have you considered the death rate of those people if they had had the flu shot at the start of the winter flu season? It's speculated that Italy had a new round of flu shots at the start of winter 2019 and this increased their chances of dying from this civid outbreak.
not speculation but it did happen in Italy and china too, I think. There was an animal culture used to make these vaccines too. Prof. Dolores Cahill says that dogs were used in these. She also says dogs are quite likely to possibly have corona (SARS) already in them.
I think this falls in line with what is called the cytokine storm.
Sorry but I'm just recollecting loosely but yeah, there's documentation out there to confirm this if you look 👍
Excellent video. But since May 5 much information has emerged regarding the correlation between the severity of the lockdown and the subsequent deaths per million. There appears to be no correlation. However NZ seems to be the outlier. I would suggest that this is simply because NZ had fewer people infected to begin with because of their early intervention and then the draconian lockdown which delayed any further spread. I also suggest that this is going to release the whirlwind as restrictions are lifted and travellers are allowed back in. But even so - the deaths that will occur will still be restricted to the demographics you highlight. Either way - the practically universal lockdown throughout the world will prove to have been the most misguided and catastrophic imposition ever imposed on the human race. I feel that the response from all over the world will NOT be the expected one!
Thank you so much sir
I accept the reasoning, but am perplexed by some accurate stats & well designed studies from other countries. (Research papers can be deeply flawed)
Antibody study Spain - randomised sample throughout Spain +Canary Islands of 70,000. 5% had been infected - Deaths 27,000. Therefore Infection mortality ratio 1.16% (Higher than the stats given here.) Given population size & no further action after lock down, there would be a further 227,240 deaths to achieve 70% natural immunity
UK - Office of National statstics for 2020. By week 16 there had been an excess of ALL deaths by 49,000 above the 5 year fluctuations (from eg 'flue.)
We have to account for this sudden increase in deaths by 37% which is the highest since records began & started when Covid19 cases began to increase.
When the UK government only included deaths in nursing homes (at a late stage) the mean age at death increased to approx 70. (Those in care homes, the very frail & elderly are not admitted to hospital in the UK because they cannot be helped by so doing)
Before that, we only knew the mean age of those admitted to hospital with severe Covid19 = 63, which means that 50% are under the age of 63. That is the group where there we had 20,000 deaths (This is similar to Italy - mean age admitted to hospital 61) Therefore life span IS being shortened in some, & WOULD BE shortened in large numbers if hospital resources were insufficient to meet the needs of this group of people. Only 5% of those admitted to hospital die. (Stats direct from hospitals). So infection mortality rate would increase considerably in this event
The lock down in the UK WITHOUT additional measures to contain the virus as in S.Korea, will only reduce case numbers to a level where hospitals can cope & rapidly peak again once lifted. S.Korea contained the virus early by extensive testing & was able to target lock downs to small areas, thus keeping most of the economy going & mortality rate low.
Re dying from or with Covid19 there is no doubt that those who die in hospitals in the UK die FROM Covid19 on the grounds of sophisticated investigations showing disease which is never seen in their co morbidities & affects many internal organs. Verified by post mortem examination.
The UK went for "herd immunity" - "let it spread unhindered to gain natural immunity." Hospitals became overwhelmed - mainly insufficient staff, for the newly built field hospitals. We are currently running low on oxygen. We've done the worst possible!
A very interesting talk, especially about the high level of naturally aquired immunity from very mild or asymptomatic disease in NZ. Different countries are getting different results.
I'm asking more questions than getting answers. NZ & Sweden both have very low population density - NZ - 18.3 / KmSqu, Sweden - 24/Km Squ, whereas England - 430/KmSqu
Questions such as the amount of virus we are inhale (loading dose) before we get disease. With a low exposure disease may not be apparent but produce immunity (subclinical)
Questions like exposure to sunlight & VitD levels. Vit D modulates the immune response & reduces the main complication causing death in Covid19 - cytokine storm.
Good intracellular zinc levels prevent the virus from replicating once it has entered cells. The study which indicated that hydroxychloroquine was of no use, gave it too late, ie after the virus had replicated sufficiently to disemminate through the body.
I would like to see more attention given to these factors which are simple & easy to address in attempt to prevent / significantly reduce the fatal complications, without causing disruption to society.
Genetic ancestry studies in Cambridge UK & Iceland have not analysed sufficient global specimens to be statistically significant. The virus is mutating slower than usual for a RNA virus - so no worries there yet! Iceland commented that SARSCov - 2 has been in the UK for longer than realised, but deaths were actually lower than the seasonal flue' fluctuations before Feb.
I think that more information is coming to light by the day as we understand the disease more. Figures alone, & specialisation in only one subject can mislead, & result in inappropriate action with either excessive damage to the economy = job loss & mass unemployment, or large numbers of deaths, both of which are un necessary if the right method of control is used.
Finally a concern of doctors is WHETHER there are later after effects from Covid19 & how common they might be - this is a big unknown with a completely new virus.
There is no need to panic. IMO different countries with different demographics need to handle it differently.
Late comer, just came across this - but thank you Simon, very excellent presentation
No one ever talks about people of working age with autoimmune and suppressed immune systems like multiple sclerosis
CDC just published mortality rate of .25% not deadly unless you are over 65 and or have underlying conditions.
Thanks for the video. Namaste
HEY RUclips! YOU FORGOT TO CENSOR THIS VIDEO!
Good work, but one point of critique: serosurvey is not reliable to get a better picture because innate immunity, the first barrier of our immune system, will clear a lot of infections (just as with rhinoviruses) especially in children, without a secondary cellular immune response with the production of antibodies. So you actually cannot swap serosurvy for immunity because a lot of infections (we do not know how much) are 'cleared' without the formation of IgG or IgM antibodies. Lockdown of course, doesn't work, as was already published bij the WHO end of 2019, something they seem to have forgotten in the las few months. Also, PCR testing is useless in epidemiological respect because it will not give accurate information of clinical manifestation and doesn't tell you if a + tested person has (serious) symptoms or even (severe) disease and beholds no info on the exact moment of infection i.e. +test can mean cleared infection, recent infection, ongoing infection or even just cross- an transfer of RNA without complete visions being present; it has no bearing on prognosis etc. Healthy criticism!
US Center for Disease Control publishes data for each flu season. From that data come facts such as: the 2017-2018 season in the US was severe and more deaths occurred; the 2018-2019 season was longer than is usual, about 5 months. In the USA, so far, from the end of January 2020 till the end of May 2020, with deaths hovering at around 90,000, Covid-19 looks to be a bit more deadly than the flu has been. Rates of fatality would drop sharply if the USA would begin operating under consistent guidelines in all states and test a high percentage of the populace. We’d then be able to provide supported isolation for those who test positive, contact trace, and then continue to test. That would limit disease transmission and free us to open up our lives and our economy.
The stats in this video are out of date with current conditions in USA
In 2018 I lost my dad and then my job a few weeks later. I became dangerously destructive and hopelessly depressed.
In the depth of my despair, I called out to Lord Jesus, and He spoke to me.
His presence is unimaginably beautiful.
Lord Jesus, please forgive us and have mercy on us.
You're a fool.
It's your choice to become depressed.
There is an obvious error in the presentation. It’s is substantially more people than 50% that needs to live longer then average age. This is due to the lack of people reaching 190 years vs. children dying very young.
The avarage age is 80+ The normal life expectancy.
Lamz That is very different where you are in the world.
I don’t know if you agree or dissenter to what I wrote but I will give an example. If the average age is 80 and one child dies at the first year. Then roughly ten people needs to live to 88 to keep the average at 80.
Life expectancy is not a symmetrical bell shape nor any other symmetry around the average age.
Delaware started it's first stages of reopening on 27th March. Big deal and how many people are even going to go to Delaware? What, almost the smallest state in the US. Barely a dot on the map. If you cough there you're in the Atlantic.
Perhaps you should have brought up Sweeden instead.
They have a population of less than half that of Australia and they're 2896 dead compared to Australias 96 I think that's a far better comparison. Don't you? Sweeden did'n't lock down at all. Yes Australia made mistakes with that ship, letting them go in Sydney or their death rate would be far less than 96.
I'll go for the lock down any day, I'll take lives over money any day.
I don't know how you can use the same numbers in your models late in the video that you debunked earlier.
I'm seeing some gaping holes as well.
Thank you.
We're all buggered.