Three Reasons the Conservatives Will Keep Winning Elections - TLDR News
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- Опубликовано: 28 июл 2024
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The Conservatives have been on a bit of a winning streak, winning the last 4 elections, and with polling still strong we wanted to question if it's going to continue. So in this video let's unpack the Tories electoral success, what's likely to happen in 2024 & 2029 and if Labour stand a chance.
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Spitting image made a joke about this back in the 80's.
Labour: We need to think of a way to win the next election.
"We could become tories."
It worked for Blair
@@Septimus_ii Actually, Tony Blair's government did things that the Tories at the time would never have done.
@A A Actually, Tony Blair's government did things that the Tories at the time would never have done.
@A A Blair and his crew fought to have section 28 scrapped. The Tories hated that, and in 2000, they managed to block it in parliament. Then, Blair won his second general election in a row and tried again. In 2003, the Tories lost the argument and local authorities went from not being allowed to "intentionally promote homosexuality as a pretended family relationship" to holding civil partnerships for gay people within a year. The homophobic conservatives really weren't happy about that.
And by the way, both sides of the House of Commons supported the war in Iraq.
@A A Thats because they have the most MPs. Doesn't change the fact they are still bigoted. There were gay people working in Trumps admin yet he still had Pence as VP.
I remember reading articles in the 2000s saying that the tories would never win again because of their aging demographic - then the financial crash happened. Never underestimate the power of world events.
Events, dear boy, events
To be fair Cameron was polling ahead of Brown prior to that. It's why Brown didn't call an election in 2007.
Well to be fair they also did not tap the xenophobe or the anti-EU vote back then
@@erikanders3343 It was the expenses scandal that tipped the vote towards UKIP. When working class northern people found out their MP who is paid £70k a year to represent them was getting £100k a year in expenses it shattered trust in Labour. How you can claim to represent the working class when people like John Prescott owned three jaguar cars? UKIP offered an alternative to the corrupt main parties. Here is Nigel Farage, drinking beer in a wetherspoons, ripping the arse out of Labour and the Tories alike. He was anti-establishment and the people loved him. When the BBC and the rest start attacking him and the party for being phobic of everyone it was red rag to a bull. Here is a honest man telling as it is, and the BBC and the big government are trying to discredit him. He must be worth listening to. The problem with populist movements is that when the establishment tries to snuff them out, they gain strength. Look at Trump in america. The only reason he lost was Covid-19. If Covid hadn't happened we wpuld have president Trump still. Populist movements die when their incompetence is shown, or they achieve their goal. In america it was when Trump fucked the covid response. In the UK it was when Boris offered to get Brexit done. But populist movements only form when the establishment drifts away from the people. The difference between London and Middlesbrough is like being in a different planet. A political party that focuses on the problems of Londoners (racial identity, LGBT issues, the EU) will never win the vote of people outside london who care about Jobs, home ownership, immigration and being left behind by the London elite.
I say that as someone living in london. It does not take a genius to work it out. The country is divided between those who are fortunate enough to live in london with a good job and a stable income and all manner of privilege things that come with being in london. And those who don't have those luxuries. While Labour are looking inwards, the tories are looking out. Promising investment in the North, promising jobs in the north, promising infrastructure in the North. If they can deliver on these promises, they will never lose an election again. If they can win the trust of Northerners, they will never lose and election again.
The Lib Dems aren't taking shit from the tories. The Lib Dems won in Amersham because they want to stop HS2. No other reason.
@@bengoacher4455 All that said Labor and lib dems are screwed because the people who support their ideals are leaving the Uk. Brexit had their desired outcome, the cities have lost out to the countryside.
Wow, this aged like milk
Liz Truss: Hold my beer 🍺
1. The loss of Scotland has made a Labour win impossible. And no, there is ZERO chance of getting it back
2. Never ending brexit sentiment from the tories will cement their voting block
It’s still quite possible it will just have to be a big win
If you switch Labour and Conservative vote shares, Labour would have won a larger majority than Tories did. Because of the systematic bias in constituency sizes
2 was made worse by labours never ending moaning. An not getting over the vote they lost. Feel like if they cry for so long it wouldn’t hurt them so much
Get ready to hear people tell you how Labour can still some how manage to win. I'm not sure if some are in denial or just Clueless.
3. The tories are literally changing the rules on elections to eliminate neutral oversight (the little we had!) and putting MPs in charge of "the rules" which can change on a whim without real challenge. (rules like eliminating grass roots support, making it possibly illegal while giving foreign money more legal ways into buying power)
4. People still saying "I hate tories am voting my minor party which wont win because labour doesnt hold left wing enough views/centre enough views" etc.
I'm 25 and I don't think my "choice" has ever won an election. I fully expect to take Ls my entire life at this rate
If it's any consolation, I'm 20 years older than you and... basically the same feeling. There's been 'choices' I made with my vote that were out of necessity rather than actually supporting them, and recently it's felt like a waste of time even showing up. But keep going, mate. Maybe we'll get a voting system that doesn't serve power, but the people.
Wreck the shop
I got my choice every time.
It's due to FPTP. Every vote that doesn't result in the candidate winning is inconsequential to the outcome. Millions of people could stay home from their vote every election and it wouldn't change the outcome by even a single seat. In a proportional voting system, even if the party you vote for doesn't get a seat, your vote increases the vote divisor (number of votes needed for a seat, so it will influence the outcome). Every vote affects the outcome equally. Democracy.
For the past 5 years, the biggest surprise to me, was that Brits demanded an EU referendum. They would've been better off forcing the government's hand changing the voting system. Labour and the Tories will never do it without being forced to. Because it's what gives them the ability to pass the scepter back and forth.
Keep fighting the good fight
This aged better than “I am a fighter and not a quitter!”
"Tactical voting" = Welcome to the two-party system, lads, you're halfway there already!
- America
Still, surely got to be better than a one party system...
Isn't every democracy a two-party system? 3 or more can happen but rarely and won't last long
@@NoName-xc6cg It's more the single-vote "first past the post" voting method that's to blame because THAT's what splits the votes between parties to favor whomever can form a unified front.
Contrast a method like approval voting -- which uses almost the exact same ballots except you ARE allowed (even encouraged!) to vote for as many candidates as you support. In other words you are rating candidates _independently of each other_ (unlike single-vote FPTP), with each candidate receiving either a "yes" or "no" vote from each voter -- highest % of "yes" votes still wins.
@@Stratelier is this method you are talking about being used somewhere?
We will never be Americanised. I'd rather vote for the Lib Dems than vote for Starmer. At least there's half a chance of getting EU membership back on the table that way.
“We’re not saying the Conservatives WILL win…” *Looks at the title of this video….*
"We're not saying it is aliens... but it is aliens..." 👽
We aren't saying Earth is flat but, Earth is flat...
Heh exactly what I thought when I heard him
@Joshua Mills “so they need to get more viewers through other means.”
And it’s absolutely not going to be me. Such obvious clickbait isn’t getting a reward from me.
@@euansmith3699 bogos binted
“In the UK you don't vote for the Labor Party, you vote for the Labor leader. In the UK, people do not vote for the Tory Leader but for the Tory Party”
Interesting statement. Care to explain?
@@snakearekat2634 e.g. people didn't vote for labour, and stop brexit, because they didn't like Jeremy Corbyn. Yet people still vote tory with Boris in charge because it gives them an outlet for their inner racist
@@tmoosy This just brings up more questions. How do you know that it was Corbyn's fault that Labour lost? Do you have any polls, studies, etc. to support this claim? Same question for the second statement.
@@tmoosy Your comment is full of what make people want to vote tory and hate the left.
@@tmoosy Pretty bold statement to claim that the millions of votes the tories received was an outlet for racism. Does this mean everyone who voted labour were all communists or IRA supporters?
These types of statements only serve to further divide British society. By all means disagree on politics and debate them, but don't paint everyone with the same brush, else they will do the same to you.
Seeing this a year later, having seen things like the lettuce cam, is a trip.
"We're not saying the conservatives WILL win."
Video title: Three Reasons the Conservatives WILL Keep Winning Elections
They meant that they aren't saying it's inevitable
hate these clickbait titles..
I think it's just more likely to get views than "Three Reasons the Conservatives MIGHT Keep Winning Elections"
The problem is starmer is not charismatic enough. Boris is a character, he's recognisable, starmer is not he's bland and boring. Which also brings in the other problem FPTP means if Labour don't win the tories will simple as that.
A big factor in name recognition which is not really mentioned here is media. How the public sees politicians is 90% dependent on how they are covered. The UK media being largely right wing it is no surprise that conservative candidaters have a serious advantage here.
Which is not to say Starmer is at no fault. He is a pretty shit candidate. But it hardly matters at this point. A more charismatic leader like Corbyn did much better but did not get Labour elected either.
That's not the problem. That's the dream the left have conjured up. You would lose if Princess Diana was your leader. When you realise you stand for everything and nothing that is why you are losers and always will be. You are unable to allow some to be hurt.
@@adamcw88 That has to be the dumbest comment I've read in a very long time.
@@XMysticHerox I don't think corbyns a great example given he lead labour to its worst result in nearly a hundred years.
Do you need a Chief ? a boss ? If so, the problem is YOU......
What a depressing video: "one advantage of incumbency is name recognition, another is the ability to massively abuse national funds to game future elections"
Yep thats politics for you. Every Prime Minister in the last 100 years has done it.
@@dmitryaleskivic3378
Not really. In the past when pork barrelling was all edged ministers had to resign.
If you're interested in the topic there's an interesting book which views politics through the lens of patronage in both democracies and autocracies called "The Dictator's Handbook"
Welcome to Latin America :(
Johnson has poor dress sense Patel is truly a fascist
This aged well didn't it
I'm not sure this aged especially well.
The most obvious way for Labour to get the Tories out is to form a voting coalition (formal/informal) with the libs and greens. Labour should offer the Libs and Greens much needed voting reform in return for not running candidates in marginal seats any of the parties are contesting with the Tories. Then push through preferably PR or a system like Scotland's.
How about... reforming the party...? Offering better things with better arguments?
Won’t happen labour hate each other never mind getting more parties in the mix
We can't win are politics are shit n no one likes us. lets team up n change the game so that its more democratic 👏
I red that Labour didn't want the coalition because it would mean entering in a full rejoining campaign, but Labour has still a notable component of brexiteer inside.
we had a vote to reform the voting in 2011 and it was overwhelmingly rejected. even if Labour promise it, if no one votes for it in a referendum nothing will happen.
Disclaimer: "This is not a prediction, we are not saying they will win, but only naming factors on how they might win"
Title: "three reasons the torries will win..."
Title: three reasond conservatives will keep winning elections
Biggest threat to the CONservatives is the left wing alliance.
Strategical voting will probably be the best way to defeat them
😂
I guess you missed the asterisk
@A A at least getting ill doesn't result in bankruptcy,
But I can't see labour doing anything good now.
The "funding" section sounds a whole lot like corruption...
Welcome to Britain.
But it's 'law' so its okay to benefit old conservatives.
Well they are tories, corruption is basically their entire platform
@@deeznoots6241 Lets be honest the Labour/any party would do the same thing given the chance.
I do like the 2 above that say it's because of conservatives/tories. How does your brain work that you don't see the obvious? Of course when in power any of the political parties will make sure the people that got them there keep them there by helping them more than others. This is politics 101 and to be expected. You can call it corruption but it isn't something that will ever go away. Be it in helping with law or flat out funding for those that got them elected.
This has not aged well
This aged well
This Scottish thing is such a bind for unionists. Vote for labour and you get a second Scottish referendum. Vote for the torys and you make the chances of Scotland voting leave when they do eventually get a referendum even higher.
Yeah and if Scotland leaves they'll just fall into the same left right divide as the UK anyway because the snp will be irrelevant, so in the end nobody wins!
What a funny wee situation we've got eh? Win-Win 🏴🏴
@@joewilson3575 I really want to know from the Scottish people why do they want to join the European Union so damn bad? These people call themselves Scottish Nationals but at the same time they want to give more power to Brussels if they win independence it just doesn't make any damn sense..
@@joewilson3575 Well, since the Scottish people have shown themselves to be on average more left wing than the UK as a whole the balance of politics in Scotland will likely be more progressive and closer to the wishes of the majority of Scotts. So arguably Scottish people will win, in a purely political sense.
@@attiepollard7847 Because as a member of the EU they surrender a portion of their sovereignty to the EU in return for having the rest of their sovereignty safeguarded by a large and powerful political block in which they have a democratic voice. Whereas as a subordinate part of an independent UK they have an unspecified amount of their sovereignty sold off to other countries and private corporations in return for substandard trade deals by a government they didn't vote for.
The idea that the people in power get to decide when there is an election sounds absolutely insane.
That is what happens in parliamentary system. If the government cant command the votes of the house, then it collapses and a new election needs to be called.
Labour party leadership could call for a vote of no confidence in the government .. with the hope that other parties members feel the same on the opposite side of the house.. why there's backbenchers cross party committees ..
@@martincurrie6243 that's not what you're describing. You're describing a vote of no confidence. The absence of a fixed term parliament means the PM can call the election when it suits him.
And yes, I'm aware that you can pretend to not have the confidence of parliament, but that'd be gaming the system. You could do it, but you'd be called out on it.
It's not that bad. There's an automatic election every 5 years, this power just lets them call it sooner if they so desire.
@@martincurrie6243 nope. India is a parliamentary system, and elections can be triggered by...you guessed it...the parliament, not the PM.
The main reason is the absolute state of the Labour Party.
did you even watch the video before commenting?
@@ukmuziktv Yes. And I disagree with it's arguments. Do you agree with every video you watch?
@@tbone35453 If you watched the entire video and thats your opinion fair enough. I think the video demonstrated its a bit more complicated than that with serveral factors. but hey thats my opinion
@@ukmuziktv Yeah, it's complicated and I'm not saying they're irrelevant, I'm just saying that in my opinion they are not the most important factors.
@@ukmuziktv The reasons provided in the video are legit. But they aren't the only ones. There is simply no alternative in Britain, at least a popular one, that can give the Tories a run for their money. The Labor party as it is now is an asylum ruled by patients. Unless you yourself are insane, there is no frigging way one supports the bunch that now represent the Labor party. The Labor party has become the party of high middle-income urban hipsters who live in their own bubble. They no longer support the demographic represented in their name, the laborers.
Just to clarify things, I am not a Tory fan at all. They are a less insane version of the Labor party, but that is not really an achievement. The UK simply has not had a proper right-wing political movement since Margaret Thatcher was sacked by the Tories. On social policies they are veering more towards the left. Not completely insane as the Labor party, but still to the left. IMO the UK has lost its conservative movement.
Labour need to focus on supporting cooperatives and creating a larger cooperative sector
Absolutely this. Constituencies where the Co-operative Party have a lot of influence (places like Preston and Manchester) tended to buck the downwards trend in popularity which many Labour councils saw in the recent local elections because they have been very effective at improving their local communities. The central Labour Party leadership should learn from their successes.
That might work out but it’s dependent on their methodology. If they do it socially then they’ll build a strong base but if they do it by trying to propose legislation then the Tories will spin them as being communists and anti-business which may even be true given the folks they’ve elevated lately and that’s just electoral suicide in the U.K.,
Labour need to stop fighting in public.
@@Gary-bz1rf Labour will be back in an independent Scotland. They have a lot more discipline than their bosses down south.
Snp, SLab, S?ibs and SGreens have a lot of common ground.
That was corbyns plan before brexit got in the way.
Labour: 'We keep losing due to a split left vote.'
Also Labour: 'Keep punching left and purging the party of leftists.'
Who could have predicted this.
I think they’re trying to become Blair again, that was the last time they had govt. doesn’t mean it’ll work now but…
The lib dems and greens are right of Labour though
ok then name the last socialist Labour leader who won a general election please and thank you
@B all I'm saying is that if the Labour party members and trade union representatives who vote for party leader don't vote for the Militant/Momentum factions, how can you expect the rest of England to? See: Jeremy Corbyn, who lost an election against the weakest Tory leader and manifesto in decades - a which is still considered a "victory" by his most ardent advocates.
@@hocolate271 ehhh Corbyn still did much better than previous more moderate leaders even with lukewarm leadership, the manifesto for the last two decades from the tories have been weak, you’re making a lot of assumptions and inaccurate claims.
This aged well...
As a centre right voter, I’m concerned about this government’s approach to personal freedom (anti protest law, the desire to stop encrypted messages, tax on sugar, conversation about meat consumption - just a few examples off the top of my head). We’re less free then we were before Boris became PM (which is surprising as he’s supposed to be a libertarian).
With all that in mind, I think there’s an opportunity for Labour to run on liberty and gain centrist voters. They can specifically point out all the freedoms we’ve lost and promise to reintroduce them if elected. I would vote for that even if it was a more left wing approach. A lot of us are both anti big corporation AND anti big government.
Labour unfortunately in their current state are as authoritarian as the Tories. Also remember all the post 9/11 legislation to “catch terrorists” was introduced by Blair, ID cards was another Labour favourite.
@@NashvilleUK I know. These powers don't tend to be given back unfortunately.
It's on this point that I feel politically homeless. Boris is supposed to be a libertarian but I don't see much evidence of it given the countless examples one could offer. Looking back, the coalition was a nice compromise really. :)
The tories are the party of corporations, they’ve just got us into massive debt while cutting services right down and giving billions to their mates… I could never vote for them now tbh
@@danstirling7386 this is how it was globally after 9/11 it was used as an excuse to pass strict controls at airports where's before it was much different the truth is 9/11 didn't change America it changed the entire planet as it brought sweeping powers of security and surveillance the likes of which will be very difficult to reverse
@@jacobconcannon4677 But the rest of the country does.. save this comment and come back 10 yrs from now.
The UK will be a huge success - it is a reconstruction era in the UK but the finance and finch industry is second only to the US. The UK will emerge as a great economic success.
That being said, the raving leftists are going to still struggle, because they have chose the path of fake struggle.
Everything comes down to the voting system, it's not the people, it's not the parties nor the politicians. It's healthy to have more than two parties, as long as the voting system allows, which is not the case of the FPTP. The voting system is shaping Britain's future, some are positively affected by it and some are not. If you want to win that game, you need to play by its rules which means merge down to two parties. Dreadful indeed...
I mean given where Britain and other similar countries rank on the world stage it seems like a pretty damn good system to me...
@@stickman6217 that's the ongoing effects of being a global empire and violently seizing power from other nations. Our electoral system has shit all to do with it, except occasionally making us look stupid.
Completely agree, I want to vote for green (and I do) but they're very unlikely to win because of this stupid system - not because people don't like them but because of the system alone.
In a representative democracy, I think the tendency is that it will always result in two major parties, maybe three in a few cases. In Australia, we have a preferential voting system for our lower house and it is still split between Labor and a coalition that has lasted forever between the Liberal and National Party
@@stickman6217 Compare UK and the US with the UK and US from 50 years ago.
Was there an improvement, stagnation or worsening from their rank back then in comparison to today?
The new way the videos are structured (self promo at start and end) is working really well imo. Changing it up has made them much less jaring when it happens and makes the rest of the video more engaging
You know, I never even really noticed the one at the start, I mean I heard it, I even though, nice one Dean C, but it was subtle enough to keep me engaged through the video. 😅
This didn’t age well
At all
It’s funny to watch this now and to see the utter collapse of the Tories. Let’s see how bad they lose in the next election.
The biggest issue I have with Labour is that they are constantly, infinitely, forever at each others throats. I've never known a party with more infighting, factionalism and nastiness towards themselves. I was born and raised in probably the most pro-Labour constituency of the country (and have voted for them for years because I despise what the Tories stand for), but I can totally see why people are tired of them. We need a more big-tent, anti-factionalism approach. I despise the Conservative party, but come push or shove they will back each other up against any outside threat, this is one of the main reasons they win.
The SNP are a great example of the type of party I'd like Labour to be. You've got the likes of Mhari Black (a self proclaimed leftie socialist) working side by side with Ian Blackford (an extremely wealthy ex-telecoms Exec), both focusing on a bigger goal of Scottish independence. They can be a big tent party if they really want, but it seems like they'd rather be at each others throats, which ultimately benefits the Tories....
I agree, how will they unite the nation in voting for them if they can't unite themselves?
Potential Labour leaders have put their names in the the hat with that as their main aim, Labour just hasn't voted them in. IIRC that was what Yvette Coopers plan was all the way back in the leadership election when Corbyn got in.
The snp are an irrisponsble party im all for Scottish independence but the way the snp are going about it they want to leave one union just join another but it could put the rest of the uk in an awkward position having just left the eu
I think that's a feature of many governments throughout the world. Some argue it's because conservatives value loyalty more highly than progressives, and are more likely to compromise for the sake of cohesion. It's probably a bit more complicated than that though.
I think the left would be better off if labor just broke up and created separate parties.
I realised this a while back in the last GE, but it's comforting to know people are coming to the same conclusion.
Thanks TLDR
A lot of us have been waiting decades
This was probably one of the best videos I’ve seen by TLDR!
Stalin never lost an election, though.
@@FinleyDooner True, but plenty of hardliners and dictators actually did get elected.
Even North Korea permits free and fair elections in its written constitution. They're just seldom held and only for very lowly positions where all the candidates are basically the same - but they can and do happen.
Labour might as well pack their bags and go home. It's not like they are a strong opposition anyway. 🙄
True!
however "strong" the opposition is or isn't, for as long as the right wing, billionaire class own the mainstream media, they will be undermined and destroyed. Labour under Corbyn was a strong opposition which is why the MSM and the Tories spent so much energy, money and time on rendering them "unelectable" when all the evidence showed they were far from that when Corbyn became leader.
@@ThePereubu1710 and yet, still, people think tory domination is because Corbyn was poor.
@@ThePereubu1710 ‘under corbyn labour were strong opposition’ this is why labour are losing consistently and the hardcore left voter base puts off any swing voters. Delusion of the highest order
@@ThePereubu1710 Now they are not wasting any effort on Keir, he must be unelectable by himself or maybe something else is going on at Labour
Labour could've designed a clear strategy and manifesto and stick to that... The problem is I still dont know what they stand for, neither do a lot of people.
Because your current party is being taken over by a bunch of ass clown college kids who believe in nationalizing every damn thing. We got the same problem when it comes to the Democratic party in the United States is being taken over by a bunch of college nerds who believe that government gets to fix every damn thing.
@@attiepollard7847 ah yes, John McDonnell and Jeremy Corbin, Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders. All of them are way too young and inexperienced to lead
@@attiepollard7847 nationalisation is very popular, it’s the wokeness people can’t stand.
@@attiepollard7847 No, that's just the narrative you've chosen.
@@barnaby4232 only to those who don’t remember what nationalised services were actually like want that crap back.
We didn't have "local" elections in Wales this year. We had a national one for our Parliament. Our local elections are next year.
what first-past-the-post voting does to a country
Well yes and no.
Depending on your country and the other factors in it. Like there is one main ideology that people in the country follow.
Sweden has PR and had the same party in power for 40 years
But presumably it is either ruling in a coalition or recieving a majority of votes.
In the UK you have a majority control without a majority of votes only a plurality. This is an entirely different situation in which the country is led by a government which does not reflect the wishes of the majority of its citizens.
We need a better system urgently. Preferably Single Transferable Vote. But I’d also take MMP.
@@nifralo2752 it rules with coalitions and everyone is included in parliament. Its the best system
If people are voting Tory to stop Scotland becoming independent, why do they think support for independence has grown so much in the past ten years?
I can't understand why English people have a strong opinion on Scottish independence. I'm English and I think it should be entirely the decision of the Scots.
@@iAmTheSquidThing you have a point it should be there decision but let's ask a Scottish person this. If they rejoin the European Union will it even be a Scotland in the next 50 years because it would be changing so much because of multiculturalism at the European Union supports. This is why I do not understand their obsession of rejoining the European Union.
@@donmab a hard border... i don’t care if Scotland become independent as long as their is still free movement, trade and trains from London.
@@Jay_Johnson
With all the problems that northern Ireland is creating after more than 4 years of negotiations.... I think Scotland England movement would be an even bigger mess for even more time.
@@iAmTheSquidThing ah yes forgot we we're only allowed opinions pertaining to our own country. No one here is allowed opinions on Trump or America.
after last nights brutal events this is not the video i need 😭😭
Whey! Get it up you! love from Scotland 😁
@@srjwari yeah but Britain is a geographical term used for the island of Great Britain, which includes Wales, Scotland and England. Saying Ireland is in Britain is ignorant ya plonker.
@@srjwari Well the guy that Woody Collins was replying to didn't say Northern Ireland. He said Ireland, which is not part of the Union.
@@srjwari first you used the wrong flag, second you have to mention it as northern ireland, not just ireland, because just ireland is completely different country
@@srjwari you do realise the irish aren't part of the uk, don't you? If you are referring to NI then it's northern irish.
You guys -need- to do a video on the new Health and Care bill, which massively reduces our right to healthcare in this country. Not many people know nearly as much as they should, and it's an absolute necessity that people get out and contact their MPs about this.
My god, this is depressing. The UK desperately needs rank choice voting.
You wouldn't be saying that if there were one dominant left-wing party and several smaller right-wing parties though
When we get to a point where doing voting electronically is safe enough then sure, but say right now you have x amount of candidates for voting, that means the people counting the votes have to do x times the work and there will be x times more counting mistakes.
@@willch.2259 No, I'd be saying the same thing
@@declanelsholtz9673 but you're not the guy who put the original comment
@@gthjzby887 oh, the humanity! Not the counting mistakes!
The SNP and the Conservative party have a symbiotic relationship. A strong SNP helps the Tories.
Exactly
But why? Scotland wants independence more than ever because of the brexit the Tories wanted so badly.
I remember the “Scottish Raj” of the Blair/Brown years, when the numerous Scottish ministers in government kept telling us on the BBC what to do. Maybe English voters turned more to the Tories to prevent a repeat.
@@BackwardFinesse God forbid one of the founding countries in the union have a say in how it runs.
It's more of an "Arms Race" then a "Symbyotic Relationship"
Like Bacteriophages and Bacteria
Another big (-) for Labour is that if they make a coalition with SNP, and Scotland does end up going independent, the government loses almost 60 seats overnight. That’s enough to topple the government just like that.
Not overnight, as SNP would likely retain voting rights in Westminster on all matters except the negotiation on details of Scexit. Same as British MEP between 2016 and 2019.
On the other hand, in the first election after Scottish independence, Tories would turn out with a huge majority in Westminster.
@@paologat Let's be real, the UK would become a "One Party State" because nobody would ever vote labor after they let dissolve an over 2 century old union.
@@paologat Scottish independence won't happen, they can't sort out a Brexit that was a union of 40+ years, How do you propose they will manage Scottish independence? No currency = no money... they wouldn't even qualify to join the EU, they would have to basically do what happened to the greeks. yep, good luck with that. oh, then England just closes all land freight passing through it by making them have several forms in triplicate.
@@olsenfernandes3634 True. And a real shame, too, since the policies leading to that dissolution all came from the Conservatives. It was the conservatives that dragged Scottland out of the EU against their will, and the Conservatives who have treated Scotland as a vassal colony for the last decade.
@@Malisteen imo, if Scotland had a strong 2nd party that wasn't focused on independence then the UK would have a much more balanced parliament.
we cant give up, lets get labour!
this aged like milk
Ignoring the spell where Blair went very centralist , labours not been in power for half a century, current labour is a lot more left and at odds with itself than any kind of opposition
the fact they went to the far left is why i and alot of the people i know started voting conservative
@UCrcL_fOhkLDffjVLbw_xOfQ the left side of labour puts the centralist side off and vice versa . The ideologies for each are too different. It needs to decide what it wants ( the left side seems more powerful,, but the centralist side seems more popularl) and stick to it
We’ve had a neoliberal government since thatcher
It should be simple! However, sadly, people just think about coalitions and the like rather than basic common sense stuff such as "stop going so far left"
Their not even traditional left though. They just picked up a lot of woke nonsense which alienated the old fashioned working left who care about things like fairness.
Labour members need to stop thinking they won in 2017 and 2019. And that therefore any change at all in policies is not required.
No the labor party just need to tell the college kids to shut up because that's who's running the labor party a bunch of know it all ivy League tosses
@@attiepollard7847
Agree.
28 year old who think they are clever as have a degree in a pony subject but blame the world for them not affording a house, but it's because they aren't as clever as they think they are.
@@danielwebb8402 well said. Let's just blame everyone else cause we're saints.
@@thomashisted5984 Leftie in the house.
@@attiepollard7847 Speaking as a College Student, Labour needs to return to focusing on Working Class people as a whole to rebuild its base. The only laws they could pass to help students would be making Tuition free again. The housing problem affects everyone, so maybe kickstart a social housing program since neither party has done enough in the last 20 Years. Oh and actually co-operating with SNP and Greens might actually help.
Only one reason is pertinent: the electorate appears to have the collective memory span of a goldfish.
blub?
Great video!
as someone from cornwall, despite being a conservative majority all the time, is the poorest county, had only 4 towns for the town fund. community renewal fund seems to not be fully released yet? hopefully at least Cornwall will get some since they pretty much relied on the EU funding
Cornwall voted for Brexit despite the fact that they heavily relied on EU funding. Turkeys voting for Christmas as far as I'm concerned.
Keys to Labour victory:
Two words: progressive alliance
Three words: win back Scotland
Scotland is not the key to power at Westminster. In 2010 Labour lost lost election when Scotland returned the exact same results as the election before it. Scotland voice does not matter in Westminster. If Labour wants to win they have to win in England.
Four words: Eject worms like Starmer.
@@joeavreg2254 Not a huge Starmer fan, but it might be tempting to just through all the blame on him. Labour’s problem runs deeper than just one leader. I doubt things will get any better for Labour (if not worse) if you get rid of Starmer.
@@Paranoid_Found I'm not just saying Starmer but he is emblematic of the rot. Eliminating him and every other centre right worm would go a long way to restoring confidence. As long as those idiots use the US dems playbook of "We'll do what the right wing will do but we'll be nicer about it and maybe not let as many non-whites die in custody" they are just going to keep losing.
Labour are despised in their old Scottish heartlands.
They insulted the tar out of their base during the referendum campaign. The voters there could turn a blind eye to the massive corruption and nepotism in Labour councils but not tolerate being insulted on their own door step .
Well, this video is aging extremely well. It's not like the Tories are down thirty points to Labour and the Tories have failed the UK.
this aged well
There is only one reason. The opposition 'party' fragmented into several smaller parties, and the Tories have managed to not splinter...in a 'first past the post' system. That's it. The opposition will always lose. The UK is more or less a one party system from now on, barring some sort of political disaster. Well, more disastrous than so far at least.
Yes, there is no splintering in the Conservative party! United (mostly) and advancing rapidly!
@@blondemario That's not a good thing...even for Conservatives. There is no reason for the Party to do what the voters want, even Conservative voters. There is also no fear of retribution at the ballot box for corruption. This isn't football. Winning is very different from the game being structured so that your team can't lose. There are repercussions.
You missed out on the most important factors, first, the electoral boundary changes, and if the Tories can get it past, the Elections Bill 2021 - Voter identification, and changes to political donations which will effect the Tories far more than anyone else.
They need to be changed at the moment Wales has far too many seats.
Boundary changes still result in Conservative seats being on average larger number of people. And the expected impact isn't as large on increasing Tory seats than expected 5 years ago.
It is moving the seats from very biased against Tories to just biased against them.
@@danielwebb8402 The boundary changes will gain the Tories between 5 and 10 seats.
honestly the boundary changes need to happen some areas are massively over or under represented they are consulting on splitting my constituency in two atm
@@igorscot4971 if voting stays as it is yes it probably will but it doesn't mean its wrong or shouldn't happen. Why should areas like Wales have more seats per population over some areas in England
Interesting as ever - thank you
1) The tree always has more leaves than the flower.
2) The tree can always suck up more nutrients than the flower.
3) The tree can always withstand wind better than the flower.
Red Wall seats need more funding because of generations of neglect. When Blair was in power with huge majorities he did nothing to help these areas.
If you think Blair neglected these places, wait until you hear about the two Prime Ministers before him...
Bunch of the red wall collapsed and went Conservative
I find the classic idea of the Tories as 'the natural party of governance' really relevant here; they've long (i.e. for the past two centuries) been able to tap into some idea of 'Britishness' and claim it as their own, and their ability to do this has meant that other parties have only ever had brief glances at the spotlight; Tony Blair being the exception, not the rule. I have a hard time imagining Labour winning the premiership as long as Scotland is a part of the union and independence remains a salient political issue.
Hello There, this is an interesting video, thank you for sharing this, it's much appreciated. Cheers Peter :)
I swear at first I read the title as "Three reasons the Coronavirus will keep winning elections."
Tomato tomato
For those who are sad for yesterday :
France lost Euro 2016 final at home, and won the next World cup.
England is on the same path.
Yes 💯
Scottish Labour votes have only swung the balance of MPs once, which was in the 1960. EVERY Labour government had a majority in England. The loss of Scottish Labour votes is a red herring!!
People say that Scotland doesn't matter but as recently as 2017 the Tories only held onto power due to gains in Scotland partially offsetting their losses in England.
In 2005 Labour couldn't have got majority without the Scottish seats which was their last majority
@@freestylevimto3109 that's frankly not true, the majority would have been 43 MPs instead of 66. There also wouldn't have been a coalition with the Lib Dems who destroyed their credibility in coalition with the Conservatives. Scottish seats are not all Labour and never have been.
They should replaced first past the post with ranked pairs.
Just FYI, Rossendale is pronounced 'Roz-en-day-l' and Darwen is pronounced 'Dar-win'
Imagine if Scotland leaves the union 😂
You'll be a one party state
Scotland always has been, before the SNP it was Labour, before Labour it was the unionists, before the unionists it was the Liberals
Just wait until they have to pay for everything themselves. Taxes up, spending slashed, and the fun begins.
@@sillypuppy5940 yes, Scotland would have to cut back on the bullshit commitments and focus on important things because it couldn't indulge the spending. Which would be good in the long term. Being a money pit isn't healthy for a nation or a region.
Just like Wales and Scotland then.
@@sillypuppy5940 You’re right. Because Scots don’t pay for taxes right? Oh wait, we do. And everything we get as a result of devolution is paid for by English taxes, right? Oh, right, it’s paid for by Holyrood, funded by Scottish taxes, adjusted for WM’s failure to meet the geopolitical and socioeconomic needs of Scotland through the BF which isn’t touched by a single non-Scottish sourced tax. So we must have a massive deficit to pay for it? Except, Holyrood can’t produce a deficit legally - it has had a budget surplus every single year since 2008, with a net balance prior to this.
So everything we get as a result of devolution, from universal tuition feeds, a better performing NHS, is all paid for by Scottish taxes on a net surplus. The fiscal mismanagement comes from our inability to alter how the chancellor allocates money in Westminster, whilst being dictated where our reserved budget should be spent, even without our consent, at a higher cost than otherwise.
Your 3rd point is woefully ill-informed. Scotland and its votes have only swayed a hand full of elections (only 4 since 1945). In 2005 and 2010 Scotland voted the exact same way. Labour Lost 2010 and 2015 not because of Scotland but because they lost England. Labour doesn't need Scotland to win. Its England who choose the UK government. And England is forcing the tories onto all of us.
4 since 1945 isn't nothing. That's like 20% of them! And they're all ones that Scotland swayed towards Labour right? Wasn't it ony under Blair that Labour got a majority in England?
@@joewalsh6947 It's 4 out of 21 elections, From the governments on website
"Without Scotland:
In 1964, the Conservatives would have been the largest party but would not have had a majority. Including Scotland, Labour won a House of Commons majority.
In February 1974, the Conservatives would have been the largest party but would not have had a majority. Including Scotland, Labour was the largest party but did not have a majority.
In October 1974, Labour would have been the largest party but would not have had a majority. Including Scotland, Labour won a House of Commons majority.
In 2010, the Conservatives would have won an outright majority. Including Scotland the Conservatives were the largest party but without an overall majority; they are in government in a coalition with the Liberal Democrats."
Even then, Scotlands votes count for very little, only tipping the balance when it is 'tight'.
If Labour wants to be in power they have to win England.
@@TheDragonOfWhi I guess we have a different understanding of 'very little'. As you point out there three out of eight Labour victories were impacted by the Scottish vote (& I'm not entirely convinced 1950 wouldn't have been) - I feel it's quite a significant amount!
9:42 Sitting here 3 years later and not only has one of them happened, but both 😂
More people of color in power on the conservative side than the labor, that's something I Didn't expect.
It's spelled "Labour". Do try to educate yourself on British spelling if you plan to comment on our politics.
Why is that surprising? More likely for a person of color to work in the pub than to be the one barging into it.
@@bloodyglitch1777 Right leaning parties tend to be a bit more racist.
@@roberthudson3386 Not my first language, don't care.
@@yourfake915 Just going to say this is false, usually a left wing white person and a left wing minority person are treated about the same. Same thing with a right wing white person and a right wing minority person. Could also be said with doing something left wing (like illegal immigration) or doing something right wing.
I love how the left-wing was in the right and the right-wing in the left lmfao
I’m still trying to think what Labour stands for!
University Students?
Not that clever, Boris Johnson has taken Thier clothes and left them naked and short of a true purpose . The labour front bench at the moment are no match for the tories
front benchers , they are left looking like fishwifes and clueless.they need a big revamp!
And this is a massive problem
Nowadays it's about hating the views of all parties, but having to be forced to decide which one you would prefer over the other.
I know it’s a pipe dream but if there was an electoral pact between labour, green, Lib Dem, SNP and Plaid Cymru on the condition of changing the voting system to proportional representation if a left wing coalition won, it would solve many of the problems facing the left currently and release the conservatives disproportionate chokehold on parliament
@A A first off I said make an election pact, by which I meant at the 2024 election do not run against each other in contentious seats and hopefully form a coalition government. Secondly, I know how parliament works, but thanks for telling me nothing I hope it was worth you’re time, maybe re-read the comment before popping off at the person next time. Thirdly, the torries would not win every election if pr was used as they do not win the majority of votes for an outright win and labour have won more votes then them in the past. Last, I would prefer PR because it is much more directly democratic then the current system which is subject to gerrymandering and huge disparities that mean the largest and smallest constituency have a population difference of over 100,000 but are worth the same, the torries still winning elections would be a small price to pay for that.
@A A while I appreciate the poverty and suffering u have experienced, that doesn’t make you automatically correct. I’m also gay and non binary and Irish, so there are plenty of opportunities for me to be marginalised, I’m still quite young though so how could I have lived a more tough than u when I haven’t lived it yet. Luckily for me I was not born into poverty but I still care about the people that are- which is why I detest the torries, they don’t have the interests of the working class at heart. I haven’t been brainwashed by the left as u suggest, instead I have a genuine desire for equality and belief in the immorality of being rich while others struggle to survive. I don’t see my morales reflected in that of the Tory party so I dislike them, I think that’s reasonable. People can think and vote in whatever way they wish, if PR would strengthen the torries then so be it- but I don’t believe it would. Given a system like PR, people can vote for any Party and any candidate knowing that there vote is much more likely to have an effect for smaller parties then in FPTP. I think PR would mean that many more parties would win seats in parliament so while the torries may be one of the largest a parties, they wouldn’t necessarily have complete control. Both labour and the conservatives win a larger proportion of seats than their proportion of votes so the system is set up to both of their advantage currently. All the same, I don’t believe labour have an advantage of the torries when the most bloated constituencies in population are usually labour voting city constituencies
The incumbent advantage can also be a curse, take John Major. His govt at the we end of 18 years in office lead to the Conservative's lowest polling.
Exactly.
Normally it's a disadvantage. You should come in on a high. Slowly lose popularity, as can never keep 100% of your original voters happy, till other party overtakes you.
Like a saw tooth pattern.
Like Labour under Blair. Like Conservatives from 83 (83 was an outlier as Falklands war and coming out not into recession) as you say with Major.
The current situation of current gov increasing vote share is not normal.
There were a lot of factors though that effected the 1997 election though. The Conservatives were viewed as a divide squabbling party of old men who were divided over the country's involvement in the EU after the black Wednesday scandal. John Major had the charisma of a dead fish and there manifesto really did nothing to try and invite back potential tory voters.
By contrast, Tony Blair's Labour came about from the sudden death of John Smith, viewed as a young and rising star in politics with ideas to bring labour into the political center and rejecting old ideas of socialism. Compared to the dull major and seen as a reasonable and well charismatic moderate. No wonder that he mopped the floor with Major.
It might be to soon to say but Starmer really has non of those advantages going for him. If you want to look at a current party, divide with an uncharismatic leader, you look.
this is so unutterably depressing.
Labour needs to consolidate the anti-Conservative parties and become more moderate. Look at the Democrats in the United States -- they have won three of the last four presidential elections and currently have full control of the US government. Democrats are far more successful than Labour because they have consolidated the non-conservative vote.
Love this!
This aged like milk. Seriously.
Can’t speak for other people, but personally i want Scotland to have the 2nd referendum, not sure why people think it’s ok to prevent them from leaving when it’s clear that a majority of people in Scotland want out
It's not a clear majority, it's 50-50.
SNP got 47.7% of the popular vote in 2021 elections. Down by -1.2% from 2016. The majority of Scots voted for Unionist parties
If Scotland has a second referendum then those Scots living in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland should get a vote as they’ll be impacted just as much, if not more than the Scots living in Scotland. If those potential voters are taken into account it’s a far clearer majority for remaining in the union.
People don’t realise that Scotland has a massive budget deficit which is funded by the rest of the uk. Not sure how the snp will fill a hole worth billions
@@user-ow1jh8yb5j this is untrue. It has been proven untrue multiple times
Calling in the Brexit referendum was for the Torries a grand chess move on all levels. For their backers also. Working class mostly voted for Brexit and that is how Labor and LibeDems lost their votes to the Torries. However, the future is unwritten my friends ;)
Wouldn’t really call it a grand chess move. It divided the party massively and alienated a lot of their traditional vote.
Believe it or not Brexit happened because euroskepticism had been growing for years and attempts by Cameron to get concessions from Europe were denied. The British public never got a vote on political integration and when they finally did they voted leave.
But who decides how deprived an area is? I live close to Darwen and I would say it's very deprived along with Blackburn and Bolton.
Ontario 2018 election: Incumbency led to the Liberal Party going from a majority to 7 seats in the Legislature. The Liberal name had been tarnished after 3 terms in power. So incumbency "advantage" can also work against the government, if the people are tired of it.
I don't see how English voters would dislike Scottish independence so much that they will support someone who hides in a fridge to avoid a TV interview
Because gammons would rather see Scotland "under our heel" (as they probably see it) than vote for a competent leader.
@@auberginemanproductions1608 🤌🏻🤌🏻
Maybe one day Labour will realise they need to help implement proportional representation if they want to ever beat the Tories, but I doubt they'd unite with other left wing parties.
I already expect you to cover this Sunday’s Bulgarian election, but please don’t forget the ones in Moldova.
Well researched.
Johnson and the conservative victory in 2019 was akin to tony blair who then won the following 2 elections, can see something similar happening here.
Yes, history does surely seem to work this way, I must say!
Three Reasons the Conservatives Will Keep Winning Elections:
1. The Labour Party.
2. The Labour Party.
3. The Labour Party.
Gonna have to agree. They’re bloody hopeless.
Isn't Boris Johnson from conservative?
I'm not British sry, if I say something wrong
But ppl dont like Boris, and he is right wing
@@ShayNoMore1 he is. However, the main opposition are so bloody hopeless and can’t and won’t provide an alternative within the confines of parliamentarianism.
If you double the UK and bring it to Asia, you get Japan. Both are islands away from the mainland who hate their neighbors, had a large navy and empire and lost it after WW2, has powerless monarchs with power to a parliament/diet and PM that has been mostly from a conservative party (Tories, Liberal Democratic Party) for the past decades and privatized the railways in the 1980's.
And in Japan it's a bit more extreme. LDP + a smaller party called Komeito takes up 142 HoC seats and all of the opposition takes up 103. Meanwhile in the HoR LDP-Komeito takes up 311 seats while the Opposition takes 154
How about the massive influence that things like the Daily Mail has on public opinion regarding politics?
I have a bad feeling about this!
Despite the video doing a great job of staying objective, the title could lead others to expect otherwise before watching it.
I'd suggest replacing the phrase "Will Win" with "Will Probably Win", or "Might Win", unless the title was deliberately made to sound more confident in order to draw more attention.
It all comes down to the voting system. In France for example, they have at least two rounds for every election, with only the top 2 or 3 at the end. This means that even if the left vote is split in the first round, it always coalesces at the end. In the UK people are stuck with the results of the first round and have no possibility to pass on their vote to their second choice candidate.
this may be quite possibly the most depressing video on youtube
(well made though, thanks for everything you do TLDR news!!)
LMAO oh man this was so wrong, Tories are out soon.
For whoever feel desperate, remember: whoever is winning at the time looks invincible.
The Labour Party is far less electorally successful than the Democratic Party in the United States. Democrats have won three of the last four presidential elections and currently have full control of the US government. Labour have only had one successful prime minister in 50 years. The Conservatives are doing exceptionally well
@@jonalderson5571 This is because Democrats are still sane while Labour has lost the plot.
@@Miranox2 Definitely. Labour needs to become more moderate and consolidate with the other left-wing parties if they want any chance to govern
I just watched a video on democracy in Singapore, and these points are shockingly similar to the situation there.
Yes I've watched that video and the situations aren't remotely comparable. A party dominating for one decade with around 40% of the vote, is not the same as one party winning 60%+ of the vote for the country's entire history.
Okay, maybe they are comparable, it's just that Singapore is a far more extreme version. Like comparing a stubbed toe and a broken leg.
Electoral boundary changes is also seen to favour the tories across the UK. Taking 2 seats from Scotland & 8 seats from Wales.