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incredibly well done and informative video!! and thank you for not wasting my time and getting straight to the point! ive done multiple playthroughs and still didnt know some of the interactions explained in this video and i certainly didnt know the numbers like this but it is cool info too see! also glad to see that the data confirmed my natural inclination from multiple playthrough that ethereal is the strongest in the game

Bala. Tro. OK

Very interesting! Never thought about that before

wow i just knew i get skins daily

What about flush five and straight flush?

WHAT ABOUT STRAIGHT FLUSHHH

I think the fact that flush likeliness scales faster with discards than any other hand is really interesting, I wonder how it happens.

the odds of getting the hand you need is 1/1000 even if you need a flush with a standart 13/13/13/13 4 suited deck

I don't think I actually know the rules of this game, because I didn't understand any of that.

The secret hands of Balatro cannot be drawn or played with an unmodified deck. Which the secret hands are: Five of a Kind Flush House Flush Five

What about Flush House and Flush Five?

two pair is my favorite to go for

There is also flush house and flush five by the way!

1:51 this math is somewhat wrong. Yes, the numerator (4) goes down, but the denominator (52) also goes down with any card drawn. The general point still stands, though, since 3/51 is much lower than 4/52 for example

i knew +1 hand size from a common joker was very impactful and didnt sell it for some mults

How do I get to the store

super interesting video and comparisons, good work!

Heirloom elegant skins in the steam market can be unraveled for 1350 and the cheapest options tend to cost only a dollar. It use to be my main way of getting spools back in the day

2:02 sort of related because of shared inventory, but a few days ago i merged a klei account made for dst on switch and another klei account on xbox and i made the nintendo account the main klei account. Neither inventories changed but for some reason, the xbox account got the award for merging accounts despite me making the switch klei account the main one. idk what really happened or if theres still anything i could do to merge the two inventories together

I rely most of my spool farming by waiting for redeem codes xD, dailies are good too but i still havent unlocked Wurt and Wanda, but this opened my eyes to potentially earning a tiny bit by selling it on steam hmmm.

I wanted to argue, but looked it up and it seems like regional prices vary... Real much. In usd, there are no items with price less than 0.03$. I use kzt and it is equal to ≈16₸. However, in kzt, the usual least price for Common items is 0.63₸, which is equal to ≈0.0012$. This means the cost of 1 spool in kzt is 0.00024$ or one dollar costs 4166 spools With that and your calculation, full set of characters and their skins would cost me, like, ≈11$, which is an impressively small amount. Everything in a game would cost me ≈240$, and it is less impressive, but still a lot less than 670$. Perhaps i should buy a shit ton of items and then ask some american friend to take my account, change the region and get a lot of money (steam comission will take a lot too, but 0.01$ i will get from selling a 0.03$ item is still more than 0.001$). This is 100% illegal and punished by steam, but if i do it in small amounts (like no more than 100$ total, i do not need that much of a money on steam anyway) i bet no one would notice

Support the devs by using the ingame store. that's the reason to use it over steam marketplace.

Damn, i always used the store

I should unravel my mourning veil, it sure will be worth the 450 spools.

Pretty cool video, good to know!

I missed these vids

the discard mechanic. Honestly its horrible at times, sometimes it gives you the same cards you discarded but different suits OR 2-5 random cards that you just do not want and then you run out of discards and you are F'd tbh without multi jokers for 2 pairs? its very very difficult to get any high chip count at all.

What are the odds of straight flush?

spreading misinformation...yeah, nice one..

Awesome video! Do you by chance have the code for the simulator? I was trying to do something similar (although it was for a Yu-Gi-Oh Duel Links combo, and the minimum deck size is 20 there) and never really made any headway

Fun fact that wasn't actually duct tape! Its a special tape called speed tape that's used commonly in the aerospace industry for temporary repairs!

This is actually super useful data. Also, all of your data is just derived from running a simulation a stupid amount of times to ensure accuracy, I was wondering if you knew the margin of error for any of this? I'm assuming after 10 mil simulations its a negligible amount but figured I'd ask anyways. Great video though man!

Great video, but PLEASE do NOT call pair "two of a kind" ever again. Nobody in poker calls it that, and neither does the game.

No straight flush or royal flush?

Holy shit why is this comment section 90% racists? If you want to have an audience you cannot let this happen on your videos.

What are the odds of drawing a straight with 2 discards + shortcut? I’m guessing like 90-something?

hey brother, keep up the good work!!!! i'm a fellow statistician and i enjoy your videos 🫶

These numbers are wrong 10 second depletion and 15 second regen. 3 second for the threshold regen and 2 second for threshold depletion. also weight does affect regen speed slightly. this is obvious when you carry a cash register. thats why speed runners drop and pick it up quickly while taking it back to the ship. also its worth noting that if youre on an incline or decline that will also affect your speed. (maybe regeneration and depletion but i havent tested that with observation mods yet so i dont want to give false information) I do see this is from 8 months ago so maybe its changed since you posted, just letting everyone know!

I'm going to throw out two or three exceptions for the don't crockpot sanity rule. Its mainly combat related rather than day to day management, but Cactus has some limitations and you aren't wearing dedicated sanity gear in most combat situations. 1: Sanity draining equipment. Since you are using your sanity to heal or dps, its useful to maximize your sanity gain to minimize the time you need to leave combat. This might be specifically relevant to me as a Wormwood main, but I need a lot of sanity in combat. 2: Poar Bearger Bin: This makes it optimal to use crockpot dishes once you get it for food you want to keep on you, so even if technically 4 cactus is more sanity that the ingredients to make one dish like salsa fresca, its still more convenient in the inventory. 3: Salsa Fresca: Yes, Toma Root offers a good chunk of healing, but making Salsa Fresca doesn't require a lot of effort. Just a tomato, which everyone farms, and an onion, which doesn't have nutrient requirements making it easy to farm. The point would be mute if you could pick up cactus plants, but the running to get it can be annoying if you don't base in the desert. Its a convenient and effortless option when needed. And if you don't need it, you have the vegetables for other dishes.

In my experience, bacon and eggs is the ultimate meal for every character (except Wurt, Wanda and Wormwood), since it gives a daily dose of hunger, 20 healing which is very handy and most importantly, it spoils very slowly, it makes it very good food for a long adventure, and it's very easy obtainable, just a spider and a some normal meat farm(turkey, moleworm, hunting, goat, bosses that you slayed)

Enchanting Poltergeist for Raw damage after the most recent patch is fine-ish especially if you're using tsar weapons with cooldown reduction build that spams only skills. Half of the base dmg from 70 and beyond like tsar greathammer or spear converted to raw is amazing on top of using varnishes/rags and boons, since only two or three enemies in the game even resists Raw damage, and they're arena bosses..which like you mentioned, not many people even do or know they exist.

3:54, also to mention if you have the joker that makes flushes happen by color, or are using the checkered deck, with +1 hand size flushes are guaranteed. Since with 9 cards you would have to draw at least 5 of one color or the other.

Not bad, but mildly annoying how you skip over hexes and elemental vulnerability EXISTING. And humans tend to like to be resistant across the board as you might've noticed from blue sand armor set and Formless Material enchantment, I also usually just chuck their universal resist off on them "being smart" and using an elemental resistance potion. Like, we can do the same. Also boons. Both physical and fire can get very high damage bonuses, and while physical would still suffer if you can't pain an enemy or didn't go heroic kingdom, fire can kill even fire-*immune* enemies consistently with scorched hex and elemental vulnerability, as fire has a relatively easy time getting a decent amount over +100% damage bonus. And not ALL corruption hinders lightning damage, only the most corrupted stage, Defiled, which you can avoid with preparation and wouldn't like to stay at unless your build is one of those that really love decay. But ye all stages of corruption lower your lightning *resistance* by a dangerous amount. And blue chamber collective reward armor isn't the highest that you can take ice, albeit the alternative will be kinda mismatched and less protective. Plus the game is very replayable and there is the legacy system to let you send some armor pieces or weapons or an egg or something "forward in time" for your next character to discover. Also some Caldera gear and weapons interact a bit with a bunch of lil things, but ye not too many people go there, although you can get some weapons to legacy them pretty easily. Sorry if I sounded bad anywhere there, I just really want to keep the facts straight. All in all though, a good video to get some understanding of the damage types.

Awesome video! Very much appreciate this sort of overview, and you even kept it short and to the point.

DRUGS

The way you pronounced Balatro was so off-putting

I was thinking about it and it probably is waay easier to run programs to figure out these hand numbers. To do it naturally, you would use the basic formula of P(event) = # of event outcomes/# of total outcomes. For any hand, that's # of possible hands/ # of total hands. So for 8 card draw, the total possible number of hands is 52C8, 52 choose 8 which the formula is 52!/(8!*44!). So for any hand, that will be the denominator (short hand, it's 52c8). Where it gets hard isn't really the math, but just deciding the numerator, where you have to figure out exactly how many hands there are that can be drawn. This is the tricky part because you aren't just seeing exactly the amount of cards you need for the hand, but also need to consider that the other cards can be anything else, including a weaker version of the hand that you would even play. This means that if you try to count all possible pairs, and start by counting all possible ace pairs, you will have a lot of different flush combinations if your rank pull was AA KK QQ JJ. It could be HS HS HS HS, HC HS HC HS, CS CH CS HC etc... (where C = club H= heart S = spade D= diamond). As you can see this gets crazy messy very fast, and now you have to count this for each and every possible pair combo... fortunately if you keep track of what you've counted you can figure out the number of pairs, two pairs, 3oak, 4oak, and full houses you can pull. It's a bit easier to figure out the straight/full house/flush/straight flush odds since you don't have as much overlap with 3 extra cards in hand. But this question becomes much much easier when you use 5 card draw, and you only want to count the number of straight flushes (denominator is 52c5, numerator is just 4*10, i.e. number of suits * number of straights, so the probability of pulling a straight flush in 5 card pull is 40/52c5). Anyway I say this because I want to see someone actually figure out the hand probabilities by hand. Would be a wild video.

I appreciate the opportunity to be wrong in the comments. Cocky, yet engaging. Well played.

It would be more useful to have a bit more detail around which hand to fish for if you draw, for example, 3 or 4 in a row fishing for a straight vs trying to draw flush, as that’s the situation that usually happens in ante 1.