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It's mind boggling to me that they didn't change freeze to frostburn when they already had it implemented in Legends Arceus and they also changed Hail to snow in Gen 9. Not only is freeze such an awful condition, but having it be the special Attack dropping parallel to regular burn, would also make Physical Attackers not just outright inferior to Special Attackers. Although for that we would also need a special version of intimidate.

Good, maybe takes him down a peg.

while this is technically 1/1000 it's extremely misleading to actually call it that

stupid video

This calculation is 100% mistaken. Every action has its own chance of happening so u cannot multiply them in any way.

Hey there! I was the other top 8 in the Spear Pillar tour using MDB’s team! It was great to hear your insight, I do think that the urshifu spread is a litttle bit bulkier based on the HP stat in the top 4 match at worlds, but I’m not sure whether it’s losing speed or attack

I mean, isnt technically every order of attacks & swaps + attacks that happen very low in percentage of occuring?

Just gag me now, I hate Legendaries so damn much. It gets rid of so much of the skill in competitive. Just "big spread attacks go BRRR". It's mind numbingly frustrating to be creative just to have your strategy just killed by Rain Dance Specs Water Spout. I'm so glad me and a group of people are making a League online with badges and stuff you can earn. Our own format without all the pesky Legendaries everywhere, just you and whatever you can come up with.

Thanks for sharing! Random question, which rental you think would work best in the tommy toys for tots tournament this weekend where we drop a member for a delibird

I remember watching this Iwanna to cry for a goat.

Thanks for this great insight, would love to see more content like this

Always doing good work, appreciate it! Btw it was hype to see you on couple different regional tournament stream gl for your next one!

Love the video! It is really nice seeing your insight on what speed bumps you would focus on for each team!

super helpful, thanks for making this man

Keep doing this I'm absorbing this info for my comp debut

World champ difference

avg showdown moment

This is why I prefer Frostbite over Freeze

Improbability is very common, but just in variation. I feel this way about medical issues and other things. It's very easy to get a rare medical issue IMO

Luck is also part of pokemon

No me habia dado cuenta de lo lindo que es Wolfe

Hilarious and deserved

The first and last stats are very inconsequential to like if this was an exceptional thing to happen. 1/3 is not a crazy wake up odd. Doing what you would normally do at 80% of the time is also not worth mentioning. The only parts that matter are the crit freeze. For example, any crit hit +2ndary effect while using a sleep talk set would also be a similar number.

This was a dumb probability calc, Wolfe's chance of losing to freeze was 8% not 0.11%. This exact game state had a roughly 0.11% chance of occuring.

Wolfe really is SO handsome 😔

Wolfey..? Don’t know the guy. From here looks like Magnus Carlsen playing the finals

I did the math, If Wolfe losses if he doesn't wake up, and if he does then he wins unless there is the crit, freeze, and not unfreezing turn one. There is about a 66.78% chance that Wolfe losses. which isn't very unlucky.

what tourney was this

I personally think they should allow hacking the pokemon in, the only thing it's doing is saving the player hours and hours of pointless grinding. Additionally, it would get more people into the official pokemon competitive battling.

RNGsus giveth as RNGsus Taketh.

Cheater got comeuppance.

This could be said for every single game

Freeze should be changed to chilled, halving special attack like burn halves attack

curious what the amoongus evs were

But this isn’t how statistics works. The odds of all of that happening is low, sure. But the odds of ANY game of VGC happening is low. Just the odds of any order of events in a game with this many RNG rolls is statistically improbable. But they all happened because there has to be SOME order of events. Getting a crit on a single turn, by this logic, isn’t a 6% chance. It’s actually a 3.5% chance because of the Rock Slide hit, the lack of a crit, the lack of a flinch, and THEN the crit. That order of events is much less likely than a single crit to happen, but you could do that with any series of events. Anytime an RNG roll is done, it compounds the odds of that exact scenario happening. Like, sure, the odds ARE low, but so are the odds of every series of events. Even on a move like aerial ace where you can’t miss, you’re still introducing a ton of RNG like the odds of not critting immediately bring that down to a 94% chance of happening. And then your damage roll literally only had a 6.25% chance of happening. So anytime you use aerial ace, the outcome that happened only had like a 58% chance of happening. Every time you use aerial ace. You can see how fast the odds of anything happening drops so fast when you start considering status effects and moves that have additional effects adding onto them. That series of events may have had a .11% chance of happening, but any other outcome also would have had an insanely low chance of happening. For example, let’s imagine all of that happened, but then wolfey thawed out instead. The odds of that happening would be 33%, 4.2%, 10%, and then 20%. So actually, waking up from that freeze would be even MORE unlikely resulting in a .028% chance of happening. And then Wolfey would have won and nobody would be talking about how lucky/unlucky he was. Because we don’t look at stats in that way. Adjusting any of those odds and choosing a new potential outcome will come up with similar results, too. Every potential outcome is super unlikely, but one of the outcomes HAS to happen. Because of all of the RNG involved. The truth it, the only thing that really made the difference was the 10% freeze chance. So he really lost on a 10% chance. Or if you want to drill down a little bit more, the chance to not thaw would make that an 8% chance because that’s the only thing that actually mattered here. A far cry from the .11% chance.

You could do this with any battle and the percentages for every mutually exclusive random event happening in the same battle would be small...

The RNG in this game is frustrating. Will o wisp is 85% accurate, but it misses 70% of the time for me…😅 Then my opponents’ Dondozo tries a fissure and hits it on its first try…😭🤦‍♂️

Tell me again why I should take “competitive” Pokémon seriously?

Sure that's the odds of that specific line happening, but it's just one line out of countless ones...

You might as well have gone back to when Wolfe was conceived and calculated the probability of everything happening since then lmao

Pokemon is so cancer

The world champ difference at it again

True gamers know that luck is a skill

Im sorry but the cam seitching over to under bite Gamer Beard, dsl, crooked glasses thatre way too thick guy with oval head killed me I dont care

Wolfe con perish.

World champ difference

Okay well now you're just combining unrelated numbers

Yeah, if you add some random events probabilities you will get close to 0.

putting everything in to calculate doesn't matter if it's good or bad luck is kinda dumb... if you are going with that, then there is a chance of Wolfey facing different opponents when enter the tournament, there is a chance his opponents lead with different pokemons. And since especially every single move have a chance to crit or not, and with your "sequence" each time a move doesn't crit you have to put in it as well. now everything is already 1 in a trillion or much much lower.

Man put my parlay on risk that sleep turn