Stock Market Rally Is Unhealthy And May Correct Soon, Argues Technician Milton Berg
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- Опубликовано: 9 июн 2024
- Milton Berg, renowned market technician known to viewers for his contrarian bullish call in January of 2023, returns to Forward Guidance with a far less rosy outlook. As of recording on February 28, 2024, Berg is decidedly bearish in the face of a stupendous stock market rally. He sees signs of an exhaustive peak and expects a decline, which could either be a corrective move in the middle of a bull market or the beginning of a true bear market.
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Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
00:15 Milton's Buy Signals Have Continued To Appear In The Stock Market
06:11 This Bull Market Is Unique In Its Strength, And It Its Weakness
10:53 Indicators That Suggest A Stock Market Top In February 2024
15:20 Why Milton Is Leaning Bearish
24:05 Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cuts And Earnings Cycle (Milton Disagrees That These Are Bullish Factors)
30:55 There's Lots Of Momentum In This Market - But It's Not Bullish Momentum
35:28 Banking Index Is Behaving Strangely
40:37 Evidence This Could Be A Blow-Off Top
49:33 VanEck Ad
50:16 This Is Not A Healthy Market
52:34 The Permabears Could Finally Be Right
53:13 Speculation In Blue Chip Companies Is Extreme (Although Speculation In Unprofitable Companies Is Not
01:00:09 Mind The GAP!
01:05:29 Portrait Of A Sick Market
01:07:22 New Highs In Europe And Japan - Milton Isn't Impressed!
01:10:48 China
01:12:37 Cycle Dates
01:16:54 Climax Top In SuperMicro (SMCI) - Milton Was Long But Has Flipped Short
01:21:31 If There's A New Bear Market In 2024, It Will Probably Cause A Recession (Unlike In 2022)
01:26:35 Milton's Long-Only Portfolio
01:28:26 Milton's Short List Of Overextended Stocks (Including Nvidia)
01:33:12 Would A Forthcoming Sell-off Be A Corrective Move During a Bull Market Or The Beginning Of A New Bear Market?
01:35:29 Alibaba, Paypal, and Berkshire Hathaway
01:36:43 A Review Of The Buy And Sell Signals
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. 
Развлечения
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my portfolio has strong companies but it has been stalled this year. I have about $600k sitting in my reserve that needs to be raised. This concerns me and has left me uneasy. Can you help me?
Here is not the place, consider financial planning.
True. My $540K portfolio was diversified across several markets with the help of a financial planner, and were able to achieve over a million in net profit among high dividend yield equities, ETFs, and bonds. It is vital that you have a variety of exposure, including in firms that are currently generating cash flows.
Who is this planner that you employ?
Her name is 'Melissa Maureen Ward. Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
Thanks for the Pointer. She seems proficient. I’ve left a mail on her website
Everyone needs a Milton Berg in their life.
I love Milton! He's the uncle I never knew I had! 🙂
This man is brilliant. Thank you for having him on.
Fantastic information from Milton. All hard data points and analysis without bias.
Great insight. I love the bear and bull analysis and balanced approach to the analysis.
Fantastic, Milton again.
He has been spot on.
Perhaps the absolute best interview I’ve seen on blockworks, and I’ve seen a lot of very good ones.
Jack, we really appreciate you having guest like Milton on every once and a while, who give it to us in our own natural dialect, autism....
Regardless of where he stands, gotta respect how Milton always shows up knowing his numbers
omg I was literally wondering what Milton thought about this market yesterday! great timing 😄
Blockworks macro called the top 😂
Milton delivers!!
I always like listening to this guy, he is a NO BS kind of guy and he just says what he thinks without sugar coating it. More of him and more of those like him please. Great interview.
Awesome as ever. Thank you both.
Milton Berg is my favorite market technician but, like Jack, he is a fast talker. So I have to slow these guys down to .75 speed, in which case it sounds like they are both stoned.
Great interview. Thanks, y'all.
I recently sold off a good portion of my stock holdings totaling about $400k, with roughly half of them being tech stocks at their peak. If inflation is a possibility, should I buy ETFs or hold out for a market correction?
from my study, 90% of the time in an election year, the stock market stays positive for quite a long time. 2024 is no exemption, but it is better to be guided, ideally by a well experienced and licensed advisor
Agreed, I just use RUclips for research purposes, I run all my major investment through an investment adviser, the market is just too unstable to handle things on your own. I have consistently restructure and diversify my portfolio/expenses and I’ve made over $3million in gains in close to decade of having one
How do I reach out to a financial advisor, my portfolio has been struggling since 2022 and I’ve been holding on by the skin of my teeth.
Heather Ann Christensen is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment
Thank you for sharing, I must say, Heather appears to be quite knowledgeable. After coming across her web page, I went through her resume and it was quite impressive. I reached out and scheduled a call
Always good to listen to Robert De Nero's brother
Not sure what’s going on, but this is a lot of fun ! Thanks Milton
This guy seems like a straight shooter and I enjoyed listening to him.
I was just thinking about milton berg it's been a while since I've listened to his take on the markets and I wanted to hear precisely that, so I search his name on yt and lo and behold, his latest video right here!
Nice. He is amazing
Thanks for the advice! I'm new to financial planning and wasn't sure where to start. Any tips on finding a reliable financial adviser or resource to guide beginners..
Despite all the financial struggles i and my family faced, everything is finally falling into place! $47,000 weekly profit and riches I'll always praise the Lord!!!
HOW
....!! I know it's possible, I would appreciate if you show me how to go about..
Sincerely speaking. I will continue to trade and stick to expert nor elie daily signals and guides as long as it works well for me...
I agree. Based on personal experience working with an investment advisor, I currently have $1m in a well diversified portfolio, that has experienced exponential growth. It is not about having money to invest in stocks,but also you need to be knowledgeable, persistent, and have strong hands to back it up..
Wow I'm just shocked you mentioned Norelie Daissy, thought I'm the only one
trading with..
Love listening to Milton. One of the few I relisten to many times.
I actually watched until the end
They're hiding in Top Stocks to hedge against Regional Banks' exposure to Commercial Real Estate. Great interview. Thank you.
FINALLY!
Where have you been, sir?
Thanks Jack, been following your work since inception and you’re one of the best in garnering the meat and potatoes of an interview. Milton is a star and I’m always excited when I see him appear on your show. 🙏
If you're not considering Milton Berg's perspective when looking ahead at the market, you're doing it wrong
Big time!! I been studying the s&p 500 and it amazes me
80-Y Elliott Wave count totally bears out Milton's call on a (generational) market top. As well, he is spot on on exhaustion gaps.
Thanks Jack and Milton
Nvidia bubble is insane .. bagholders will get rekt real bad
I think crypto is even worse😬. No fundamentals, straight up gambling
@@brosb4hoes755 full blown fundamentals, uncle sam running 2 trillion dollars in deficit=btc will skyrocket
no brainer
@@brosb4hoes755Do research before you make such a statement
Nvda longs are rich af. They have nothing to fear.
Nvidia will keep going up as long as they are meeting or beating their earnings.
The moment they miss on their earnings or soften guidance, the party will likely be over, but it will never drop back to the $100 range (unless they’re committing fraud or something nuts)
Genius absolute legend the GOAT
Was a superintendent for an investor in western WA. Firstsource just bought out the local supplier. Stock has definitely gone up and to the right.
Machine gun Melton is back!
🤣🤣
Milton is a genius#.
this man is jus so god damn bright man. love the way he thinks, a trader fr fr
Best of best
Thanks Jack
Why Feb 23rd can not be the high… March 1st says “Hi”
It seems pretty basic, right? Yet, the host never calls Berg out in something so glaringly obvious.
GOAT
Really interesting connections
I’m hearing bicycles not buy signals
As long as the beer market doesn't have you reaching for the whiskey.
Get the Bitcoin now, it'll be 10 million by the end of the week
a once in a century opportunity. just like Covid
😂
Lol Buy now or Cry later
Interesting IWM and spy hit 52 week high today
I ❤me a sick market 😜
I like this guy he’s big into astrology
Thank you really interesting interview
the yield on bonds have decreased especially on the long end (30 and 10 Y) indicating that the demand is still there even if the supply remains huge showing a preference for safety. I'm still at a crossroad regarding whether or not to liquidate my $138k
Find quality stocks that have long term potential, and ride with those stocks. I have found it takes someone who is very familiar with the market to make such good picks.
I agree with you. I started out with investing on my own, but I lost a lot of money. I was able to pull out about $200k after the 2020 crash. I invested the money using an analyst, and in seven months, I raked in almost $673,000
Please will you be kind enough to share the details of the man that helped you?
Actually its a Lady. Yes my go to person is a 'MARY KALIOPE BRAUN'. So easy and compassionate Lady. You should take a look at her work.
Thanks for sharing. I curiously searched for her full name and her website popped up after scrolling a bit. I looked through her credentials and did my due diligence before contacting her. Once again many thanks
Great interview. With regard to inflation adjusted: we are living in an era of high inflation. Don't stock markets in high inflation countries continue to rise?
In theory sure, but it’s hard to say. There aren’t many historical examples, and monetary policy is so different compared to 20 years ago, so who really knows for sure.
Basically there are too many factors that influence the stock market to say with confidence that asset values WILL appreciate when inflation is high.
Party like it's 1929 !
Hundred year party
Yes, historically we have 10% corrections over time, and 30% corrections a handful of times. Sure, the Mr. Berg will eventually be correct with a downturn. But, him saying we already hit a peak when we are still going up at a 45 degree angle, is crazy. Where is the permanent breakdown out of this wedge pattern as proof? Yeah, sure we cant keep going up like this forever but saying "We already peaked"- is silly.
Great show Jack. Milton was a great guest. Lots to think about. Interesting as I am watching today, SPX made another high. We may be heading to his med projection of $5650 which is 9.6% higher from here.
I think 55% it will still go up without a correction. the point is if you are right, how do you win big? if you are wrong how do you lose less
Hedge your positions with options or diversify a bit of your portfolio into sectors that shouldn’t be as affected.
Please interview him more often
interesting but really bad audio? why do these so called pros due such a bad job on posting with bad audio
He's has a deep voice and likely has his office door closed. So there's a bit of an echo. Not a big issue for me
Agree
Milton is a date machine he spits out 3 or 4 dates for every stat that he gives Jack is like OK so how does that relate to now. You can see this happens often Jack has to circle back to clarify how that relates to the current market going forward. jack is trying to keep things as simple as possible and Milton doesn't get the hint and continues spitting out all these various dates. We get Milton knows what he is talking about but doesn't really need to keep proving his point by rattling off all these dates he could simply say this happens 4 or 5 times in the past say 5 years or 10 years. thanks Milton for your analysis.
so is he bullish or bearish??
yes
Great interview
❤❤❤
Namaste sir how are you fine thanks
I'd really love to know the exact dates you became bearish. Or is it like it just happened so you felt like you ahould come back on the show to explain it?
Too early milton, new highs
past results are not indicative of future performance...
none of us is as confused as all of us 📈📉🥴
Nicholas Cage looks good in a suit and tie!
Lol
Bubbles has come a long way since Sunnyvale.
Happy to have this melt up to dump all the crap I shouldn’t have bought in 2021, now out and staying out!
Did you buy cryptos, exhange or asian securities?
@@frv6610 midcap US tech and overpriced crypto
Bear is bullish and bullish is bear momentum is bullish momentum pick do too signal declaring bull off top do to fundamental reccecion on inflation. 😮 This super easy to understand.
He sounds and even looks like Michael Pettis from Beijing.
Maybe it is him?
Feb 23rd is no longer the high
Market bleeding right now!
Please short this market, show us you’ve got the balls 😉
Done
@@miltonberg5534😂😂😂, let me know when you cover
If you had real balls,you would hedge your bets.
@@BigHenFor lol, hedging for p***ies
Buy NVDA and the S&P here. Go all in. Show us you got the balls.
Great interview. Thanks, y'all.Given reduced inflation signals and as the Federal Reserve has halted rate hikes, what are the best additions for a $120K portfolio to enhance the overall performance of my portfolio this year
Look for stocks that have paid steady, increasing dividends for years (or decades), and have not cut their dividends even during recessions. Alternatively speaking to a certified market strategist can help with pointers on equities to acquire
This is why having the right plan is invaluable, my $510k portfolio is well-matched for every season of the market and recently hit 100% rise fromm early last year. I and my CFP are working on a more figures ballpark goal this 2024
who is your advisor?
Her name is ‘LAURA GRACE ABELS’ can't divulge much. Most likely, the internet should have her basic info, you can research if you like
Thank you for this Pointer. It was easy to find your handler, She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a call session with her.
Jack can’t get a word in, Milton just spews data… it’s funny to watch!!
Milton kicks out some great historical perspectives, but we're not holding things constant here as there's still way too much distortion in the markets. We continue to slosh through too many years of excess liquidity and malinvestment so what happened 10 or 20 or 50 years ago really isn't applicable.
Berg the best
Mother Of All Blow-offs! Appropriate, for the Mother Of All Bubbles. Next up, the Mother Of All Bears.
the tisim is strong with milton
Seems like the host has been smoking the hopium
lol, now the excuses are markets have not made inflation adjusted highs and breadth is too high, 😂😂, what’s next??😂
What the heck is he talking about 😂
Bubbles has come a long way since Sunnyvale trailor park.
0.75x anyone?
Milton repeats this entire interview word for word after pushing the green button.
When the Feb top gets broken I’ll make sure to celebrate here 😂
Well Milton almost nailed it. Off by one lunar though :) closer than most
jay leno's rainman brother:)
Not this dude again 🙄
What dude do you recommend?
Not judging, but Milton is like an astrologer with his dates and cycles.
Suit and tie! Yes! Good. Suit businessperson. Hoodie kid from the mall. Easy.
Nothing stops this train
Is Milton Berg actually Moe Howard? Or his grandson maybe?
seriously he promotes BABA and PYPL?!
Why not?
Analysis paralysis. Strange yes government pumps billions into the economy and interest rate all time high.
God bless
Milton is an expert with *old money* . Follow him in the present, and miss out on the party 🤑!!!!
Scare the retail investors out so we can buy more cheap shares for the run up. I've seen this movie before
You are also retail. lol
berg is beat
Inflation adjusting the market doesn't matter because my cost of living doesn't give a shit, i need a nominal amount of money not a inflation adjusted amount
Do you really understood what you just said? Every sum is nominal in the first instance, but if you don't adjust your returns for inflation, you're not taking into account your purchasing power, which inflation erodes. So what Milton is basically saying don't be fooled by the nominal returns, because your purchasing power is less now than before, as inflation has returned, and has a distinct probability of staying around. So you need the right nominal returns that match or exceed inflation.
@@BigHenFor that is the point sir. They don't adjust prices at the store to compensate for your inflation adjusted returns. Its intellectual masturbation to inflation adjust indexes, cuz when I sell to pay for my life, the market doesn't GAF
The blow off top happens when Milton pushes the green button.
The only thing crashing is Bitcoin!! S&P 500 is strong and AI is on its way to correct but won’t suffer as tech depends on it