The cynic in me says that if someone wants to have games in July/August then just do them in the southern hemisphere. Or move them to October if you want them in the northern hemisphere.
That's a doable short term solution. What happens IF future Fall/Spring temperatures exceed current summer temperatures? Oh and how do we have Winter Olympic Games if the temperatures exceed the point at which ice/snow melts?
The issue with moving them to the southern hemisphere is that barring exceptions such as Australia and New Zealand, countries in the southern hemisphere tend to be poorer and less able to foot the bill for the sorts of massive infrastructure projects that hosting the olympics (currently) requires. If there is a shift towards the southern hemisphere, I can only hope it's accompanied with changes to make the games less of a fiscal burden and a better long term investment for the hosting cities.
@@jimthain8777 Simple, we build arenas that are made for snow sports. Some places already have facilities where you can ski indoors. It does mean more investment, but host cities already tend to spend billions making new stadiums for the games when they get them already. So it's really not that extreme of an idea to build structures for certain events that are possible with them. Though naturally, long distance events wouldn't be suitable for such a situation.
@@jimthain8777 If Fall/Spring Temperatures exceed current summer temperatures, the Olympics are our smallest problem. A bigger issue is that the July/August slot is in the summer break for a lot of sports. Changing the Olympics schedule would require to adjust a lot of sports calendars. And I really can't see that happening for some of the more successful pro sports - I don't think you'll see NBA players at the Olympic Games if they are held in March or October. But well, they did it for the soccer World Cup in Qatar, so who knows... I kind of expect the Olympics to move away from their summer date at some point in the next 20 years or so. Probably first for a tournament closer to the equator - like the middle east, or maybe Mexico or Southeast Asia.
@@jimthain8777If temperature rise causes snow to be melted year-round, we won’t be having the olympics anymore because we will be experiencing the collapse of the biosphere.
I'm in Tokyo rn and you saying "the conditions in Tokyo will become the norm" is legitimately horrifying. The heat here is unbearable without doing any exercise or labour at all.
30°C+ in a city environment with high humidity is torturous. Can't imagine what it was like in Dubai when the humidity and temperature made it feel like 62°C! That's so far beyond what the human body can handle!
I tend to watch the news in disbelief when people on the other side of the world call my August an "abnormal heat wave", and my summer monsoon a "hundred-year flood". Their extreme cold, heat, and rain are my January, August, and July. And all of this happens in a landmass just as small as the Island of Ireland. Now here's the terrifying realization: if their Januaries and Augusts are starting to look like my Januaries and Augusts, what's gonna happen to my Januaries and Augusts?💀
As a parisian this summer has been the coolest in many years, as a fortunate and exceptional coïncidence. The last 5/10 years have been drought after drought and heatwave after heatwave, each year worse than the last, regularly braking 40°c. This spring and summer has been exceptionally rainy and thus cooler on northern France, and I think this explains partly why the olympics were so successful
They are holding the 2032 Summer Olympics during Winter. Brisbane temps at this time are High teens to low 20s. So, maybe the answer might be to move them to dates that suit each geographic location.
That's the winter temperature in 2024. Do you think that the temperature will still be that low in 8 years? Remember for the last year and 1/2 we've been setting new record temperatures pretty much every month. If that keeps up what will average temperatures look like in 8 years? What will the extremes look like then? These days the saying is: Remember this year, it's the coolest it will be in the foreseeable future.
1988 Seoul Summer Olympics started on mid September. People saw how the Korean summer is like in August and said no. The weather we saw in 2020 Tokyo is just a typical East Asian summer. Seoul is on average three to five degrees cooler than Tokyo, and people back then decided August was not a good time to hold the Olympics in this region. Even if Asian summer becomes a norm across the world (welcome to hell, everyone), what I don't want to see become the norm is a group of people making worse decisions than what people had already agreed upon more than 30 years ago.
@@francisboyle1739 You're absolutely right it isn't uniform. While it's "freaking cold... (relatively speaking)" this year, what will it be like next year, or in future years and decades? What happens when it isn't "freaking cold" first one year, and then a few years in a row, and eventually it's not so cold at all?
I used to race bicycles competitively. 14 years. One year I was riding past the pool in August and it was just too hot to ride. I was looking backward at the pool while I was riding forward. Switched to swimming and never looked back.
Wow. That's Maria de Lurdes Mutola in the thumbnail. She is a Mozambican legend 🇲🇿 She is one of the most successful African athletes of all time. I didn't expect to see her here. Mutola won the gold medal in the 800 meters at the Sydney 2000 Olympics. The only Mozambican athlete to ever win an Olympic gold medal.
As a regular gym goer in Madrid, I can say that in summer I am much less performant. The 15 minutes walk to the gym sometimes feels already like a nightmare and even if the gym has air conditioning, it is impossible to get it cooler than 25 degrees. Not to mention that my sleep quality decreases substantially. What used to be extreme temperatures have now become the norm 😢. I really love the Olympics but I can't image athletes competing in these conditions
I'd be interested in learning about the damage done to heat-stressed kidneys. Outside workers, sports people, children, oldsters, everyone really, are going to be in danger of kidney damage, because of heat, in the future.
I think it‘s interesting that all this is already true for most countries. The hot part obviously only for hot countries, but sport not being a priority is just the fact in all poor countries, which is why we always know which countries are gonna be in the top 10 most medals won
The population of Paris increased by at least 82,000 people for this year's Olympics. Each one of them relied on the burning of fossil fuels to get there, be lodged and fed, and get back home. That doesn't include all the preparatory travel by delegations, politicians, press, corporate sponsors..., nor all the souvenirs, one use food wrappers and swag (which I suspect very little of was actually made in France) on top of it all. By default the whole operation is an environmental turd sandwich. The carbon cost of large venue entertainment which involve thousands or tens of thousands of people traveling to events such as Taylor Swift concerts and professional sports in itself must be staggering.
Though it was a record high proportion of public transportation use, cycling, and local production. Event venues, whether permanent or temporary, were all connected to the electrical grid instead of using gas-powered generators. Sure, large events like the Olympics have a substantial environmental impact, but they managed to drastically reduce it for the Paris games and set an important precedent. It was their goal from day one.
@@Mastermind12358 Depending on the airport, they can close due to excessive heat because the runways can start to melt. If you've ever seen a tar patch get sticky on a really hot day, imagine something like that. There's also tremendous force being applied on runways especially with landings which is not great, but even on takeoff max thrust could damaage the runway surface as well. There is some spectacular video of an old fighter jet obliterating a runway behind it as it takes off because the surface wasn't strong enough.
@@ParabuetoAlso depends on the aircraft and load. The things are designed to work optimally at relatively high altitude going fast. There are tradeoffs involved with what's needed to get them off the ground. Hot lower density air negatively affects both engine power and lift at takeoff... But making planes which can handle that better makes them less efficient at cruising.
@@Parabueto more relevant, however, is that as temperatures rise, the air behaves differently, as if it were a higher altitude. This could cause problems in high altitude areas like Denver
This was the first games that improved cycle infrastructure (as opposed to building new public transport or roads) and encouraged visitors to cycle to venues. That seems to me to be a bit of actual (non-greenwash) sustainability. The IOC resisted this idea for some time, but eventually realised (after heavy persuasion) it was just good value and really sensible.
You should ask Parisian cyclists what they're thinking about that. Not all new cycle lanes planned for the Olympics were ready in time, and a lot of actual preexisting infrastructures were made impractical, unusable or dangerous because of construction work, security barriers, and Olympics dedicated lanes for cars (for officials and athletes). Maybe, in a few months, once everything is back to normal, the overall cycle network in the Great Paris will be better for it, and sure that's a sustainability win in the long run, but I'm not convinced it's that great of a plus for the Olympics.
Dr Francis' beard giving you a heightened wet bulb? Got to admit it's not the sexiest analogy I've heard for that 😂 I can see where you're coming from though, the beard does look amazing
I really appreciate that you always have a hint of optimism in your videos. Yes, things aren't looking good, but that doesn't mean that everything is going to shit, and there is progress made as well.
Well, the harsh reality of things is that the warming is speeding up, tipping points have likely already been reached or are about to be and we are experiencing irreversible, exponential decline in a vast array of environmental aspects. I rather not be delusional, but to each their own, I guess... It's gonna take more and more mental gymnastics to keep the illusions up and I have no energy for that.
@@Mr.Puppet_23 Therefore we should all throw our hands up in despair and stop trying to mitigate the damage as much as possible. Yeah, I'd rather not pursue that line of thinking. Things are going to get really bad, and irreversible damage will be done, but there is still a real goal in trying to mitigate that damage.
Whatever me, you or anyone does, it is not going to make a dent on the mass of disaster set to come upon us. Why? Even in an absolute dream scenario, where all GHG emissions halt at this instant and we mantain the material conditions of society, the heat baked in the system (look at Earth Energy Imbalance and aerosol masking effect to see what I mean) is already more than enough to set a fuck ton of tipping points (e.g. Greenland glacier melt, Amazon desertification, AMOC, coral reef die-off, many others) into motion and ensure we hop to +4C and get completely obliterated by Mother Earth. Wish you a good last 5-10 years on this beautiful planet. Still hoping that I'm wrong after all...
What if instead of going to a new location every games they select just one specific location and pour resources into keeping that place working right in any conditions that might get thrown at it? That might also prevent some of the post-Olympic economic curse that a lot of these places have endured.
Unfortunately that's unlikely due to the geopolitics involved. Unless it can be amended into the Antarctic Treaty. Might be the only place it's viable by 2048 anyway.
as someone who lives in Brisbane, where the olympics will be in 2032 idk how they will actually take place, its honestly insane that we're going forward with it. its so humid here and even in winter
One thing you didn't cover was the fact that the sports that are done at the games are not fixed. If certain sports are no longer possible due to weather effects. They could then be replaced with a different sport that is more viable. We have even seen this in the last two games that they have added multiple new sports to the games. So it is entirely possible that it can pivot to fit conditions better.
Simon: Here are all my patreon benefits! Me: Hmm.... Simon: Oh and sometimes I'll put your name in a virtual marble race at the end of my video Me: SAY LESS
You know what i realized recently about internal combustion engines? Not only do they pollute but they also directly heat the atmosphere by being so inefficient.
As a Canadian, your depression needle thoroughly confused me. Here we use a similar set up for forest fire risk, except most dangerous is always on the right (and the needle points at specific colours). Watching on my phone I couldn't easily read your labels, and the needle moved in the opposite direction of what I expected the bad side to be. The movement felt pretty arbitrary until I noticed the labels towards the end of the video. Basically, I think it was an interesting idea, but needed bigger labels or some other way of indicating which side was which.
15:15 (D) Our Urban cities are designed mostly for cars and are not people centric. Hence, less children will experience the freedom and autonomy of moving around on their bicycles to wherever they want to.
Like many others said in the comments, the easiest solution is having the summer Olympics in autumn. Depending on the local climate it could be September, or October or even November (not sure about southern hemisphere). Training can be done inside, all year round. In Canada you can't train outside in winter anyway, for summer sports obviously. I'm more worried about winter Olympics. Less and less places will be suitable. Last winter in Montreal there was continuous snow covering for only 2 months. January and February. Normally we have that between December and mid April.
Most if not all of our old civilizations where build in climate zones averaging 15-20 celsius. Above 20C hard work (like building big fancy stuff) becomes problematic to dangerous. So that high intensity sport like on olympic level gives the same problems is to be expected.
@@gama2064 Yeah, original comment didn't make much sense but I will point out that hot areas have historically made huge effort to construct buildings & infrastructure to counteract heat. Temperate areas haven't really evolved in that way (and many are designed to keep warm due to historically cold winters). Also, there are lots of very hot/humid parts of those warmer countries which weren't very densely populated until recent things like air conditioning and refrigeration.
@@ronan5228 Oh, I very much agree, you can see that with things like the increasing sum of heat deaths in the UK recently I just thought it was funny how incredibly European the comment sounds.
Nice to have you back Simon. This was an excellent video. Things aren't going to be rosy for the fossil fuels industry either. Their own creation is going to severely impact their ability to make all those millions. Doing extraction in a place where wild fires are rolling through, or a hurricane, with the possibility of tornadoes will negatively affect them just like it affects all the rest of us. I'll end this comment on a cheerful note. China is the world's biggest importer of fuel oil, and in the first 1/2 of 2024 those imports have dropped 11%. That's after climbing to new record levels as recently as Jan. 2024.
The thought of swimming in 29C water, let alone at an Olympic level just sounds horrific. When I swam competitively there was one pool that was always grossly warm and it was miserable. Sweating when you’re mostly wet is a uniquely weird experience as there’s no wiping it away or getting relief by dunking your head when the water isn’t cool, you’re just hot floating in hot and if the air temp is warm you’re just fully surrounded.
This video makes me realize that the global climate change seems to be the least of the problems of the Olympic games compared to lack of willing hosts, constant doping and judging scandals, and lack of adequate facilities. No offense, but this video comes off as silly compared to the problems which will, indeed, leave the Olypic games with 10-20 participating countries and 0 interest from anyone outside of these countries.
"The gold medalist has been disqualified for having an unfair advantage: blood tests show an unusually low concentration of microplastics likely due to purified plasma transplants."
I did a 70.3 triathlon in Taiwan last year. The heat index was 50 C. It was fucking miserable. The race had a 1/6 DNF rate, which was the highest I'd ever heard of much less participated in.
Here in France the Olympics (obviously) were very much followed and brought a lot of interest. Probably also because the other news aren't very fun right now. Great video. We need to understand what climate change will impact in our daily life
The whole video is good, but I looove the Winter Olympics "diorama" 🤩 Until now, my thinking about Olympics and climate change was more about how irresponsible it is to have so many people (athletes and spectators) come from all over the world for a few days, and the huge waste of building new infrastructures every two years that are way oversized for the "normal" day-to-day needs of the region or country they're in. I didn't think of the impact on health, performances, spectators interest, and opportunities for athletes. So thank you, and Rohin, for that very complete and interesting video.
That said, for me personally, the Olympics (and any major sporting event for that matter) could disappear tomorrow and I wouldn't give a fig. I understand doing sport to feel good or for fun, even if I rarely partake. But I really can't comprehend the attraction of *watching* someone else doing sport from a stand or on the TV...
Imagine if Athens had the Olympics this year. We had almost 20 days of heatawaves and during the last tow days we had a huge fire around Athens suburbs where 102km² burned. Athens choked on smoke for 48 hours and ash was falling from the sky.
As far as the effect of high humidity on breathing that might be due to more water vapor making the air the less dense as well as displacing O2 with H2O.
Great report . The increase in precipitation intensity is due the increase water holding capacity of the atmosphere. 1degrees c increases 7 % more water held
There are at least 3 very easy solutions: 1. Do the Olympics in April/March or October/November. 2. Do the Olympics in colder climates (northern Europe/Canada etc). 3. Do the Olympics in the southern hemisphere where it's winter.
I'm not sure 2. is a solution, given higher latitudes are warming even quicker. Both Canada and Russia have already had heatwaves with temperatures over 40° C
@@_asphobelle6887 What place is warming faster is irrelevant, because we're not going to plan where they take place 100 years into the future. And even when climate change reaches its eclipse, Oslo or Helsinki will still be colder than Madrid or Rome unless earth gets hit by a moon-sized asteroid that shifts the earth's axis, at which point I don't think anyone will care about the olympics any more. And ruzzia is a bad example because most of it has a continental climate that is inherently more extreme (in both directions) regardless of climate change.
Re: the final gag: I was amazed when they trucked snow for the Vancouver Olympics. Could not even fault the driver for going 20% above the speed limit down the highway.
"I can finish the match, but I could die" at only 34C? Are you kidding. The Australian Open is played during the middle of the Australian summer, with some days above 40C. I played cricket when it was 45C once. I walked over 20km during a 40C day.
The Australian open has specific policies related to heat issues. Cricket is played in a cardigans at top levels, it's not comparable to the intensity of high level tennis. The same is true for walking.
@@mnm1273 Tennis has been played at 40C. The heat policy was only applied very recently. The policy is mainly for competitors from other countries that are unable to climatize. And it's at 36C, which is a low temp. 38C is usually the norm.
@@IonianGarden The heat policy started in 1988 and the ref could do it starting at 35°C. "Tennis has been played at 40C." people do stupid stuff, it doesn't make it any less dumb. "from other countries that are unable to climatize" like the Russian who made that comment. Russia is famously cold.
@@IonianGarden The Australian open famously had incidents where players collapsed and hallucinated due to the heat. It's just another dirty trick where Australians force their opponents to play in dangerous heats because they know they'd gain an edge.
@@mnm1273 I don't know why 40C is stupid. I worked in a greenhouse for 17 years with temps during summer over 40C and humidity above 70%. If heat stopped my job, nothing would get done. For the Australian Open in 1998, the new heat rules that the stop of play was 40C. Then in 2002 it was reduced to 38C.
Great video! I know you're not a health scientist but also it is worth mentioning how covid has and continues to cause major chronic illness that affects essential body systems like respiration and blood flow. Professional athletes will lose capacity, and more and more people will be too sick, tired, and poor to participate in grassroots sports programs. I think this will have quite a considerable impact on the future of professional sports.
As someone from Tokyo 2021 I can confirm that the games were horrifically hot. I can’t imagine it getting any hotter than it was then. We had athletes nearly pass out on the field
I love the videos normally but this one is a bit of a stretch. One example is the spectator level, but the Olympics rose with the rise of TV, so lower in person spectators wouldn’t impact viewership much.
Wet bulb temperature is everything and has the largest adverse effect to an athletes athletic performance. Lance armstrong , a true expert. Discussed during the recent Tour de France . Also explains why so many older people and infants are dying weekly . Cant shed heat
More sports tech that has, for a long time, made some people nervous, will have a valid pitch now or all venues will happen in highly climate-controlled arenas (but obviously not without all kinds of controversy on either outcome.)
And who is going to invest in building this high-tech infrastructure to be used for a month and abandoned forever? Aren't you aware that there are almost 0 countries willing to host the games as it is?
The serious in me says that global conflicts will make the Olympics O.B.E. (overtaken by events), and that these types of games will be seen as luxuries that few can afford.
People love watching sport, look at how much money is spent by individuals going to events, and satellite / cable tv subscriptions. I'd be surprised if there was a significant decline.
Climate issues aside, there's the matter of the huge expense and the reluctance of cities to bid on this financial gamble. The intense flag waving at the Olympics seems to outweigh any notions of human commonality. There are plenty of international sports alternatives nowadays that didn't exist when the modern Olympics were introduced.
I do not agree for this century, the Olympic games will be moved to cooler period of the year. But will the Olympic Games even exist year 2100? Our understanding of the future is so limited. We can not even predict how year 2100 will look like, though it will most probably look pretty much the same as today but after 2100? year 2500?...and year 3000? Year 10000 or year 100000?
> the Olympic games will be moved to cooler period of the year There's only so far you can move it, and as Simon pointed out while that might help the couple weeks that the games themselves are on, the athletes still have to train the entire year if they want to remain at peak performance. > But will the Olympic Games even exist year 2100? Do you believe 2099 ("this century") will be fine while 2100 isn't? Climate change isn't a switch that will just get flipped one day - its a slow progression. > We can not even predict how year 2100 will look like That's only half true. We can't predict exactly what event will be the "OK I see it now" trigger for all the people (especially politicians) currently denying the crisis, which means we can't predict when (or if) we'll actually start doing something about it on a serious level. But we _can_ predict what will happen if that trigger never occurs and we keep doing what we're doing. That's actually the most straightforward projection, by the standards of climate science, as we don't really need to account for anything we haven't already accounted for in our models. There are also reasonable attempts to predict what would happen if we change what we're doing in various ways. These are necessarily less accurate as it relies not just on the model but on the scientists accurately predicting what kinds of changes we might make. Once that set of changes is locked in, the model itself is still just as accurate but as they say, garbage in garbage out - most of the variance is in those extra "changes" decisions rather than in the climate models. Of course there's always the truly unexpected that nobody in any field of research could accurately predict. A new pandemic for example that ends up being closer to the mortality rate of the black death than that of covid. Or even a covid-level pandemic that we decide we "don't want to do again" and fail to take precautions while the most deadly strains are predominant. Or falling into all-out nuclear war. That'd change things pretty quickly, both in terms of the massive population decline but also in terms of the ash and soot dimming the atmosphere for weeks, months or even years. Or a dinosaur-killer size meteor comes our way and NASA's redirection trick isn't sufficient to stop it. All of those would invalidate the current predictions (generally by killing enough of us humans that our emissions take a noticeable hit). Though I wouldn't be surprised if someone somewhere had run the model using a "what if we just killed off 20% of people" scenario. You won't find that kind of "what if" in an IPCC report though! > year 2500?...and year 3000? We definitely can't predict that far into the future. You're talking about a timeline long enough for entire civilizations to rise and fall. Close to nothing we know today will still exist by the year 3000 - most if not all of our nations will have broken down and reformed at least once and most will do so 2 or 3 times over the course of a millennia. The few that do make it through will be vastly different in terms of their politics and culture. Climate change likely won't be an issue by that point - we'll either have done something about it by then, or it'll killed off enough of us to reach a new equilibrium. If it's the latter you can be sure that those future cultures will be influenced by whatever that new equilibrium ends up being, but there's no way to even guess at specifics. > Year 10000 Now you're talking a time scales comparable to the difference between the earliest known civilizations and now. Not only will civilization be as different again (assuming we survive that long) but we'll be in a whole new phase of the Milankovitch cycles. I'd be willing to bet we could model what would happen if we took "today" and just rotated the cycles before running the models, but that doesn't really tell us anything as obviously things will be vastly different in every imaginable way over that long a time span. > or year 100000? And now we potentially won't have humans at all. Even if we don't manage to extinct ourselves, 100,000 years is starting to get into time periods long enough for evolutionary changes to take effect. Whoever is still alive in 100,000 years could be as different from us as we are from Neandertal. Recognizable as a hominin but biologically distinct from what we call "human" today. 100,000 is kind of on the lower end of evolutionary time scales though so it's a bit of a gamble whether or not such far-future people would consider our year 2024 bones to be "the same" as their own.
![I.N "HALLUCINATION" | [Stray Kids : SKZ-PLAYER]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/n5B5q1Hwt_U/mqdefault.jpg)
Can’t believe they refused to show this video during the closing ceremony
Lebron James's been real silent since your new beard dropped
how do you secure your majestic beard while operating?
Great to see all the collabs lately with other great channels!
seriously....?..... obviously they wouldn't, i bet they wish they could delete the video,no duh they wouldn't publicize it freely lmao.
did NOT expect a crossover. why can't i escape you??
The cynic in me says that if someone wants to have games in July/August then just do them in the southern hemisphere. Or move them to October if you want them in the northern hemisphere.
That's a doable short term solution.
What happens IF future Fall/Spring temperatures exceed current summer temperatures?
Oh and how do we have Winter Olympic Games if the temperatures exceed the point at which ice/snow melts?
The issue with moving them to the southern hemisphere is that barring exceptions such as Australia and New Zealand, countries in the southern hemisphere tend to be poorer and less able to foot the bill for the sorts of massive infrastructure projects that hosting the olympics (currently) requires. If there is a shift towards the southern hemisphere, I can only hope it's accompanied with changes to make the games less of a fiscal burden and a better long term investment for the hosting cities.
@@jimthain8777 Simple, we build arenas that are made for snow sports. Some places already have facilities where you can ski indoors.
It does mean more investment, but host cities already tend to spend billions making new stadiums for the games when they get them already.
So it's really not that extreme of an idea to build structures for certain events that are possible with them.
Though naturally, long distance events wouldn't be suitable for such a situation.
@@jimthain8777 If Fall/Spring Temperatures exceed current summer temperatures, the Olympics are our smallest problem. A bigger issue is that the July/August slot is in the summer break for a lot of sports. Changing the Olympics schedule would require to adjust a lot of sports calendars. And I really can't see that happening for some of the more successful pro sports - I don't think you'll see NBA players at the Olympic Games if they are held in March or October. But well, they did it for the soccer World Cup in Qatar, so who knows... I kind of expect the Olympics to move away from their summer date at some point in the next 20 years or so. Probably first for a tournament closer to the equator - like the middle east, or maybe Mexico or Southeast Asia.
@@jimthain8777If temperature rise causes snow to be melted year-round, we won’t be having the olympics anymore because we will be experiencing the collapse of the biosphere.
I'm in Tokyo rn and you saying "the conditions in Tokyo will become the norm" is legitimately horrifying. The heat here is unbearable without doing any exercise or labour at all.
30°C+ in a city environment with high humidity is torturous. Can't imagine what it was like in Dubai when the humidity and temperature made it feel like 62°C! That's so far beyond what the human body can handle!
Move tokyo to Hokkaido 😅
I tend to watch the news in disbelief when people on the other side of the world call my August an "abnormal heat wave", and my summer monsoon a "hundred-year flood".
Their extreme cold, heat, and rain are my January, August, and July. And all of this happens in a landmass just as small as the Island of Ireland. Now here's the terrifying realization: if their Januaries and Augusts are starting to look like my Januaries and Augusts, what's gonna happen to my Januaries and Augusts?💀
@@Hession0Drasha I was in Sapporo around this time last year and it wasn't exactly temperate. Still avoided being outside as much as possible
Also the snowiest city in japan.
As a parisian this summer has been the coolest in many years, as a fortunate and exceptional coïncidence. The last 5/10 years have been drought after drought and heatwave after heatwave, each year worse than the last, regularly braking 40°c.
This spring and summer has been exceptionally rainy and thus cooler on northern France, and I think this explains partly why the olympics were so successful
I didn't click like until you made the "un-Seine-itary" joke FYI
Thank you for the Celsius to Rankine conversion. I haven’t encountered this in years.
That got a good laugh from me too. 😂
That was brilliant! 😂
I've heard so much imperial system jokes lately they've become bland and boring, but this one was so expected it did make me chuckle
I still don’t get it 😄
@@Campaigner82 you know how celsius and kelvin are related? rankine is related to fahrenheit in the same way
sometimes, google is still your friend
They are holding the 2032 Summer Olympics during Winter. Brisbane temps at this time are High teens to low 20s. So, maybe the answer might be to move them to dates that suit each geographic location.
That's the winter temperature in 2024.
Do you think that the temperature will still be that low in 8 years?
Remember for the last year and 1/2 we've been setting new record temperatures pretty much every month.
If that keeps up what will average temperatures look like in 8 years?
What will the extremes look like then?
These days the saying is: Remember this year, it's the coolest it will be in the foreseeable future.
That doesn’t help athletes training in their home countries.
@@jimthain8777 It's freakin cold here in Brisbane at the moment (relatively speaking). Climate change isn't uniform.
1988 Seoul Summer Olympics started on mid September. People saw how the Korean summer is like in August and said no. The weather we saw in 2020 Tokyo is just a typical East Asian summer. Seoul is on average three to five degrees cooler than Tokyo, and people back then decided August was not a good time to hold the Olympics in this region. Even if Asian summer becomes a norm across the world (welcome to hell, everyone), what I don't want to see become the norm is a group of people making worse decisions than what people had already agreed upon more than 30 years ago.
@@francisboyle1739
You're absolutely right it isn't uniform.
While it's "freaking cold... (relatively speaking)" this year, what will it be like next year, or in future years and decades?
What happens when it isn't "freaking cold" first one year, and then a few years in a row, and eventually it's not so cold at all?
I used to race bicycles competitively.
14 years.
One year I was riding past the pool in August and it was just too hot to ride.
I was looking backward at the pool while I was riding forward.
Switched to swimming and never looked back.
My imagination immediately goes to you riding your bike into the pool as part of the switch 😅
@@crash.override 💯
@@crash.override - Your imagination is less painful than mine. I imagined them riding into a phone pole... ow.
Wow. That's Maria de Lurdes Mutola in the thumbnail. She is a Mozambican legend 🇲🇿 She is one of the most successful African athletes of all time. I didn't expect to see her here.
Mutola won the gold medal in the 800 meters at the Sydney 2000 Olympics. The only Mozambican athlete to ever win an Olympic gold medal.
As a regular gym goer in Madrid, I can say that in summer I am much less performant. The 15 minutes walk to the gym sometimes feels already like a nightmare and even if the gym has air conditioning, it is impossible to get it cooler than 25 degrees. Not to mention that my sleep quality decreases substantially.
What used to be extreme temperatures have now become the norm 😢. I really love the Olympics but I can't image athletes competing in these conditions
I went today and Jesus I was shattered before I even got there, let alone the sweating like a pig for the whole two hours or so 😂
I'd be interested in learning about the damage done to heat-stressed kidneys. Outside workers, sports people, children, oldsters, everyone really, are going to be in danger of kidney damage, because of heat, in the future.
Hypothetical question: would the organ theft industry get better or worse? Either seem terrible for different reasons.
_Homer Simpson voice:_ *mmmm... Heat stressed kidneys*
@@OddManeuver why, are you looking to invest?
Not only that but when you have 1 heat related event, you have more and more. People will just have to move from regions or die at some point
I think it‘s interesting that all this is already true for most countries. The hot part obviously only for hot countries, but sport not being a priority is just the fact in all poor countries, which is why we always know which countries are gonna be in the top 10 most medals won
Someone from the IOC already said a few days ago that the Olympics won't be held in August for much longer
The population of Paris increased by at least 82,000 people for this year's Olympics. Each one of them relied on the burning of fossil fuels to get there, be lodged and fed, and get back home. That doesn't include all the preparatory travel by delegations, politicians, press, corporate sponsors..., nor all the souvenirs, one use food wrappers and swag (which I suspect very little of was actually made in France) on top of it all. By default the whole operation is an environmental turd sandwich. The carbon cost of large venue entertainment which involve thousands or tens of thousands of people traveling to events such as Taylor Swift concerts and professional sports in itself must be staggering.
Though it was a record high proportion of public transportation use, cycling, and local production.
Event venues, whether permanent or temporary, were all connected to the electrical grid instead of using gas-powered generators.
Sure, large events like the Olympics have a substantial environmental impact, but they managed to drastically reduce it for the Paris games and set an important precedent.
It was their goal from day one.
You can't go to the Olympics if your flight cannot take off because it's 35 degrees outside.
Flights cant take off when its hot outside?
@@Mastermind12358 Depending on the airport, they can close due to excessive heat because the runways can start to melt. If you've ever seen a tar patch get sticky on a really hot day, imagine something like that. There's also tremendous force being applied on runways especially with landings which is not great, but even on takeoff max thrust could damaage the runway surface as well. There is some spectacular video of an old fighter jet obliterating a runway behind it as it takes off because the surface wasn't strong enough.
@@Parabueto That's crazy, never thought about that.
@@ParabuetoAlso depends on the aircraft and load. The things are designed to work optimally at relatively high altitude going fast. There are tradeoffs involved with what's needed to get them off the ground. Hot lower density air negatively affects both engine power and lift at takeoff... But making planes which can handle that better makes them less efficient at cruising.
@@Parabueto more relevant, however, is that as temperatures rise, the air behaves differently, as if it were a higher altitude. This could cause problems in high altitude areas like Denver
Rohins beard is INCREDIBLE
them Indian genes got him
"For the Americans, that's 558 Rankine" 😂
I lost it at this. (98.3 F for those looking)
This was the first games that improved cycle infrastructure (as opposed to building new public transport or roads) and encouraged visitors to cycle to venues. That seems to me to be a bit of actual (non-greenwash) sustainability. The IOC resisted this idea for some time, but eventually realised (after heavy persuasion) it was just good value and really sensible.
You should ask Parisian cyclists what they're thinking about that. Not all new cycle lanes planned for the Olympics were ready in time, and a lot of actual preexisting infrastructures were made impractical, unusable or dangerous because of construction work, security barriers, and Olympics dedicated lanes for cars (for officials and athletes).
Maybe, in a few months, once everything is back to normal, the overall cycle network in the Great Paris will be better for it, and sure that's a sustainability win in the long run, but I'm not convinced it's that great of a plus for the Olympics.
Dr Francis’ beard always makes me swoon… or is that just the heightened wet bulb temperature?
Dr Francis' beard giving you a heightened wet bulb? Got to admit it's not the sexiest analogy I've heard for that 😂 I can see where you're coming from though, the beard does look amazing
I just kept thinking about the thermal/insulation properties of such a magnificent beard.
I really appreciate that you always have a hint of optimism in your videos. Yes, things aren't looking good, but that doesn't mean that everything is going to shit, and there is progress made as well.
Now I wonder what climate change means for theme parks and rollercoasters. Not sure that I want to see you speed run that in openRCT2.
Well, the harsh reality of things is that the warming is speeding up, tipping points have likely already been reached or are about to be and we are experiencing irreversible, exponential decline in a vast array of environmental aspects.
I rather not be delusional, but to each their own, I guess... It's gonna take more and more mental gymnastics to keep the illusions up and I have no energy for that.
@@Mr.Puppet_23 Therefore we should all throw our hands up in despair and stop trying to mitigate the damage as much as possible. Yeah, I'd rather not pursue that line of thinking. Things are going to get really bad, and irreversible damage will be done, but there is still a real goal in trying to mitigate that damage.
@@Mr.Puppet_23 All we can do is the same things we could do before: organize and try our best to improve the situation.
Whatever me, you or anyone does, it is not going to make a dent on the mass of disaster set to come upon us.
Why?
Even in an absolute dream scenario, where all GHG emissions halt at this instant and we mantain the material conditions of society, the heat baked in the system (look at Earth Energy Imbalance and aerosol masking effect to see what I mean) is already more than enough to set a fuck ton of tipping points (e.g. Greenland glacier melt, Amazon desertification, AMOC, coral reef die-off, many others) into motion and ensure we hop to +4C and get completely obliterated by Mother Earth.
Wish you a good last 5-10 years on this beautiful planet. Still hoping that I'm wrong after all...
What if instead of going to a new location every games they select just one specific location and pour resources into keeping that place working right in any conditions that might get thrown at it? That might also prevent some of the post-Olympic economic curse that a lot of these places have endured.
Unfortunately that's unlikely due to the geopolitics involved. Unless it can be amended into the Antarctic Treaty. Might be the only place it's viable by 2048 anyway.
as someone who lives in Brisbane, where the olympics will be in 2032 idk how they will actually take place, its honestly insane that we're going forward with it. its so humid here and even in winter
Ditto!
One thing you didn't cover was the fact that the sports that are done at the games are not fixed. If certain sports are no longer possible due to weather effects. They could then be replaced with a different sport that is more viable.
We have even seen this in the last two games that they have added multiple new sports to the games. So it is entirely possible that it can pivot to fit conditions better.
With rising sea level, surfing will be interesting in olympic 2048
Looking forward to the World Championship of Open Ocean Yachting that is to take place in 2048 in Berlin
Finals to be held in Idaho.
Welcome to the Olympic surfing competition... originally planned to be snowboarding.
The Winter Olympic diorama really got me.
simple solution: turn summer olympics into spring olympics
That Rankine joke from Dr. Francis made me LOL!
how was this channel ever in danger, this video essay is PEAK, and so so well researched and made 😩
Simon: Here are all my patreon benefits!
Me: Hmm....
Simon: Oh and sometimes I'll put your name in a virtual marble race at the end of my video
Me: SAY LESS
Smile more
The winter games diorama 😭😭😭😭
Oh, come on. That's clearly a 😂😢
8:48 Converting to Rankine 'for Americans' is such a baller move and I love it
You know what i realized recently about internal combustion engines? Not only do they pollute but they also directly heat the atmosphere by being so inefficient.
Simon is so talented. That diorama was so realistic
The Winter Olympics diorama was very informative😂 20:05 .
As a Canadian, your depression needle thoroughly confused me. Here we use a similar set up for forest fire risk, except most dangerous is always on the right (and the needle points at specific colours). Watching on my phone I couldn't easily read your labels, and the needle moved in the opposite direction of what I expected the bad side to be. The movement felt pretty arbitrary until I noticed the labels towards the end of the video.
Basically, I think it was an interesting idea, but needed bigger labels or some other way of indicating which side was which.
I don't think some hot weather is the thing that's wrong with the Olympics. It's the handling if the Olympics themselves.
15:15 (D) Our Urban cities are designed mostly for cars and are not people centric. Hence, less children will experience the freedom and autonomy of moving around on their bicycles to wherever they want to.
Great video as always Simon!
No idea how I haven't found your channel previously. Your content is excellent!
Like many others said in the comments, the easiest solution is having the summer Olympics in autumn. Depending on the local climate it could be September, or October or even November (not sure about southern hemisphere). Training can be done inside, all year round. In Canada you can't train outside in winter anyway, for summer sports obviously. I'm more worried about winter Olympics. Less and less places will be suitable. Last winter in Montreal there was continuous snow covering for only 2 months. January and February. Normally we have that between December and mid April.
I appreciate the correct usage of the it's so over/we're so back ometer throughout the video
Most if not all of our old civilizations where build in climate zones averaging 15-20 celsius. Above 20C hard work (like building big fancy stuff) becomes problematic to dangerous. So that high intensity sport like on olympic level gives the same problems is to be expected.
most? what about Southeast Asia, the middle east, Africa?
India, China are exceptions
@@gama2064 Yeah, original comment didn't make much sense but I will point out that hot areas have historically made huge effort to construct buildings & infrastructure to counteract heat. Temperate areas haven't really evolved in that way (and many are designed to keep warm due to historically cold winters). Also, there are lots of very hot/humid parts of those warmer countries which weren't very densely populated until recent things like air conditioning and refrigeration.
@@ronan5228 Oh, I very much agree, you can see that with things like the increasing sum of heat deaths in the UK recently
I just thought it was funny how incredibly European the comment sounds.
@@RockBrentwood what are you, a reptile?
This deserves much more attention than the Olympics itself
They could just hold the games later into the fall or earlier in the spring or higher latitude
Nice to have you back Simon.
This was an excellent video.
Things aren't going to be rosy for the fossil fuels industry either.
Their own creation is going to severely impact their ability to make all those millions.
Doing extraction in a place where wild fires are rolling through, or a hurricane, with the possibility of tornadoes will negatively affect them just like it affects all the rest of us.
I'll end this comment on a cheerful note.
China is the world's biggest importer of fuel oil, and in the first 1/2 of 2024 those imports have dropped 11%.
That's after climbing to new record levels as recently as Jan. 2024.
I already cannot do normal exercise above 20⁰, let alone olympic level training.
Great video again.Thank you Simon. A bit ironic that TUI was advertising off the back of it.
What an iconic collaboration
What a great format! Loved this Simon!
As an ex competitive swimmer, 29C° is gross to compete in. I bet no one got their PB
Edit: typo
Something that I have never even considered before! Thank you
The thought of swimming in 29C water, let alone at an Olympic level just sounds horrific. When I swam competitively there was one pool that was always grossly warm and it was miserable. Sweating when you’re mostly wet is a uniquely weird experience as there’s no wiping it away or getting relief by dunking your head when the water isn’t cool, you’re just hot floating in hot and if the air temp is warm you’re just fully surrounded.
This video makes me realize that the global climate change seems to be the least of the problems of the Olympic games compared to lack of willing hosts, constant doping and judging scandals, and lack of adequate facilities.
No offense, but this video comes off as silly compared to the problems which will, indeed, leave the Olypic games with 10-20 participating countries and 0 interest from anyone outside of these countries.
I loved the diorama for the Winter Olympics
"The gold medalist has been disqualified for having an unfair advantage: blood tests show an unusually low concentration of microplastics likely due to purified plasma transplants."
I did a 70.3 triathlon in Taiwan last year. The heat index was 50 C. It was fucking miserable. The race had a 1/6 DNF rate, which was the highest I'd ever heard of much less participated in.
Such a great and well researched video! I have never thought about that.
Here in France the Olympics (obviously) were very much followed and brought a lot of interest. Probably also because the other news aren't very fun right now.
Great video. We need to understand what climate change will impact in our daily life
Awesome video, very cool format and interviews
love the references to each other. Nice job.
Great way to get the message out! Keep going 🙏🏻
Amazing content man. Congrats.
Another excellent video Simon. Well done!
The whole video is good, but I looove the Winter Olympics "diorama" 🤩
Until now, my thinking about Olympics and climate change was more about how irresponsible it is to have so many people (athletes and spectators) come from all over the world for a few days, and the huge waste of building new infrastructures every two years that are way oversized for the "normal" day-to-day needs of the region or country they're in.
I didn't think of the impact on health, performances, spectators interest, and opportunities for athletes. So thank you, and Rohin, for that very complete and interesting video.
That said, for me personally, the Olympics (and any major sporting event for that matter) could disappear tomorrow and I wouldn't give a fig. I understand doing sport to feel good or for fun, even if I rarely partake. But I really can't comprehend the attraction of *watching* someone else doing sport from a stand or on the TV...
"abouuuut... 555 Rankine" 😂😂😂 The metric system will eventually achieve world domination.
😂😂
Great effort on the video Simon! The graphics are fab and as always, explained so eloquently 👍
I was gonna say widespread genetic engineering but i guess heat too
Imagine if Athens had the Olympics this year. We had almost 20 days of heatawaves and during the last tow days we had a huge fire around Athens suburbs where 102km² burned. Athens choked on smoke for 48 hours and ash was falling from the sky.
As far as the effect of high humidity on breathing that might be due to more water vapor making the air the less dense as well as displacing O2 with H2O.
Great report . The increase in precipitation intensity is due the increase water holding capacity of the atmosphere. 1degrees c increases 7 % more water held
Dat moment when potential traditional Winter Olympic venues become Summer Olympic venues:
- Anchorage 2048
Lake Placid 2052
Great video Simon! Loved the view of what the future might look like!
Brisbane 2032, being close to the tropics, may turn out to be a horror story.
There are at least 3 very easy solutions:
1. Do the Olympics in April/March or October/November.
2. Do the Olympics in colder climates (northern Europe/Canada etc).
3. Do the Olympics in the southern hemisphere where it's winter.
I'm not sure 2. is a solution, given higher latitudes are warming even quicker. Both Canada and Russia have already had heatwaves with temperatures over 40° C
@@_asphobelle6887 What place is warming faster is irrelevant, because we're not going to plan where they take place 100 years into the future. And even when climate change reaches its eclipse, Oslo or Helsinki will still be colder than Madrid or Rome unless earth gets hit by a moon-sized asteroid that shifts the earth's axis, at which point I don't think anyone will care about the olympics any more.
And ruzzia is a bad example because most of it has a continental climate that is inherently more extreme (in both directions) regardless of climate change.
558 Rankine! Love it.
Re: the final gag: I was amazed when they trucked snow for the Vancouver Olympics.
Could not even fault the driver for going 20% above the speed limit down the highway.
Thank you for converting to Rankine, as an engineer I really appreciate absolute measurements.
The Winter Olympics have been having their own problems with high temps leading to lack of snow and ice when and where needed for competition.
Notably evaporation is more affected by relative humidity, so an increase in specific humidity isn't necessarily the most relevant.
"I can finish the match, but I could die" at only 34C? Are you kidding. The Australian Open is played during the middle of the Australian summer, with some days above 40C. I played cricket when it was 45C once. I walked over 20km during a 40C day.
The Australian open has specific policies related to heat issues.
Cricket is played in a cardigans at top levels, it's not comparable to the intensity of high level tennis. The same is true for walking.
@@mnm1273 Tennis has been played at 40C. The heat policy was only applied very recently. The policy is mainly for competitors from other countries that are unable to climatize. And it's at 36C, which is a low temp. 38C is usually the norm.
@@IonianGarden The heat policy started in 1988 and the ref could do it starting at 35°C.
"Tennis has been played at 40C." people do stupid stuff, it doesn't make it any less dumb.
"from other countries that are unable to climatize" like the Russian who made that comment. Russia is famously cold.
@@IonianGarden The Australian open famously had incidents where players collapsed and hallucinated due to the heat.
It's just another dirty trick where Australians force their opponents to play in dangerous heats because they know they'd gain an edge.
@@mnm1273 I don't know why 40C is stupid. I worked in a greenhouse for 17 years with temps during summer over 40C and humidity above 70%. If heat stopped my job, nothing would get done.
For the Australian Open in 1998, the new heat rules that the stop of play was 40C. Then in 2002 it was reduced to 38C.
The marble race was a cool idea hehe Congrats Alina Dima:)
Great video! I know you're not a health scientist but also it is worth mentioning how covid has and continues to cause major chronic illness that affects essential body systems like respiration and blood flow. Professional athletes will lose capacity, and more and more people will be too sick, tired, and poor to participate in grassroots sports programs. I think this will have quite a considerable impact on the future of professional sports.
As someone from Tokyo 2021 I can confirm that the games were horrifically hot. I can’t imagine it getting any hotter than it was then. We had athletes nearly pass out on the field
Man, this is indeed quite depressing. Luckily seeing Rohin's fabulous beard makes it a lot better
Great video!
Totally off-topic: I've never noticed the pronunciation 'ath(e)letes' in BE. Is this usual or your accent in particular?
Thanks for that video!
Not in my area of the UK - then again the pronunciation here is aff-letes
@davidjennings2179 where's that, in Lahn-dahn?! 😂❤😊
"558 Rankin" lol
Great & timely video!
I love the videos normally but this one is a bit of a stretch.
One example is the spectator level, but the Olympics rose with the rise of TV, so lower in person spectators wouldn’t impact viewership much.
Summer Olympics becomes winter Olympics and that is it.
Wet bulb temperature is everything and has the largest adverse effect to an athletes athletic performance. Lance armstrong , a true expert. Discussed during the recent Tour de France .
Also explains why so many older people and infants are dying weekly . Cant shed heat
More sports tech that has, for a long time, made some people nervous, will have a valid pitch now or all venues will happen in highly climate-controlled arenas (but obviously not without all kinds of controversy on either outcome.)
And who is going to invest in building this high-tech infrastructure to be used for a month and abandoned forever? Aren't you aware that there are almost 0 countries willing to host the games as it is?
great video!
Despite the depressing topic, I really appreciated all of the humor you injected into the video
Nice diarama. I take it the Winter Olympics will feature diving, synchronised swimming, kayaking and sailing.
20:10 as much as depressing as that is, the Winter Olympics diorama skit was pretty spot on 😅
the diorama joke is honestly gold I love it LMFAO (Also, really cool & informative video! This really needs to be seen by more people)
The serious in me says that global conflicts will make the Olympics O.B.E. (overtaken by events), and that these types of games will be seen as luxuries that few can afford.
Ah yes because the world is becoming poorer every year and there's so much more global conflicts right now than during let's say, the cold war.
@@emielverbeeren8181 It's like you're pretending.
They've survived 2 world wars and a cold cold war. Chill
People love watching sport, look at how much money is spent by individuals going to events, and satellite / cable tv subscriptions. I'd be surprised if there was a significant decline.
Climate issues aside, there's the matter of the huge expense and the reluctance of cities to bid on this financial gamble. The intense flag waving at the Olympics seems to outweigh any notions of human commonality. There are plenty of international sports alternatives nowadays that didn't exist when the modern Olympics were introduced.
I do not agree for this century, the Olympic games will be moved to cooler period of the year. But will the Olympic Games even exist year 2100? Our understanding of the future is so limited. We can not even predict how year 2100 will look like, though it will most probably look pretty much the same as today but after 2100? year 2500?...and year 3000? Year 10000 or year 100000?
> the Olympic games will be moved to cooler period of the year
There's only so far you can move it, and as Simon pointed out while that might help the couple weeks that the games themselves are on, the athletes still have to train the entire year if they want to remain at peak performance.
> But will the Olympic Games even exist year 2100?
Do you believe 2099 ("this century") will be fine while 2100 isn't? Climate change isn't a switch that will just get flipped one day - its a slow progression.
> We can not even predict how year 2100 will look like
That's only half true. We can't predict exactly what event will be the "OK I see it now" trigger for all the people (especially politicians) currently denying the crisis, which means we can't predict when (or if) we'll actually start doing something about it on a serious level.
But we _can_ predict what will happen if that trigger never occurs and we keep doing what we're doing. That's actually the most straightforward projection, by the standards of climate science, as we don't really need to account for anything we haven't already accounted for in our models.
There are also reasonable attempts to predict what would happen if we change what we're doing in various ways. These are necessarily less accurate as it relies not just on the model but on the scientists accurately predicting what kinds of changes we might make. Once that set of changes is locked in, the model itself is still just as accurate but as they say, garbage in garbage out - most of the variance is in those extra "changes" decisions rather than in the climate models.
Of course there's always the truly unexpected that nobody in any field of research could accurately predict. A new pandemic for example that ends up being closer to the mortality rate of the black death than that of covid. Or even a covid-level pandemic that we decide we "don't want to do again" and fail to take precautions while the most deadly strains are predominant. Or falling into all-out nuclear war. That'd change things pretty quickly, both in terms of the massive population decline but also in terms of the ash and soot dimming the atmosphere for weeks, months or even years. Or a dinosaur-killer size meteor comes our way and NASA's redirection trick isn't sufficient to stop it. All of those would invalidate the current predictions (generally by killing enough of us humans that our emissions take a noticeable hit). Though I wouldn't be surprised if someone somewhere had run the model using a "what if we just killed off 20% of people" scenario. You won't find that kind of "what if" in an IPCC report though!
> year 2500?...and year 3000?
We definitely can't predict that far into the future. You're talking about a timeline long enough for entire civilizations to rise and fall. Close to nothing we know today will still exist by the year 3000 - most if not all of our nations will have broken down and reformed at least once and most will do so 2 or 3 times over the course of a millennia. The few that do make it through will be vastly different in terms of their politics and culture. Climate change likely won't be an issue by that point - we'll either have done something about it by then, or it'll killed off enough of us to reach a new equilibrium. If it's the latter you can be sure that those future cultures will be influenced by whatever that new equilibrium ends up being, but there's no way to even guess at specifics.
> Year 10000
Now you're talking a time scales comparable to the difference between the earliest known civilizations and now. Not only will civilization be as different again (assuming we survive that long) but we'll be in a whole new phase of the Milankovitch cycles. I'd be willing to bet we could model what would happen if we took "today" and just rotated the cycles before running the models, but that doesn't really tell us anything as obviously things will be vastly different in every imaginable way over that long a time span.
> or year 100000?
And now we potentially won't have humans at all. Even if we don't manage to extinct ourselves, 100,000 years is starting to get into time periods long enough for evolutionary changes to take effect. Whoever is still alive in 100,000 years could be as different from us as we are from Neandertal. Recognizable as a hominin but biologically distinct from what we call "human" today. 100,000 is kind of on the lower end of evolutionary time scales though so it's a bit of a gamble whether or not such far-future people would consider our year 2024 bones to be "the same" as their own.