Collapse Incoming? Plain Bagel's Opinion
HTML-код
- Опубликовано: 21 сен 2022
- For access to econ community, consider / moneymacro or consider buying me a 'coffee' at ko-fi.com/moneymacro
LIKE CHATTING ECON WITH ME?
△ Follow me on Twitter: / joerischasfoort
△ Follow me on LinkedIn: / joeri-schasfoort
△ I have a private Discord server for Senior and Chief economist Patrons / members.
Otherwise I sometimes hang out in two Discord servers:
△ Unlearning Economics's server: / discord
△ Capitalists server: / discord
MAIN CHANNEL:
/ moneymacro
Guest: Richard Coffin @ThePlainBagel
Host: Dr. Joeri Schasfoort @Money & Macro
![[DEBUT STREAM] It's wind-up time!! #hololiveEnglish #holoJustice](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/p_ZQs-kgUKI/mqdefault.jpg)
Great to hear this kind of a mature dialogue instead of listening to mainstream TV news garbage or the parallel trash on their online channels - good going, Plain Bagel and Money & Macro 👍🏽
You guys are the best finance/economics youtuber
plain bagel is a great guy to collaborate with, i've been watching him for years
I'm having a 'what the heck?'-moment listening to this. "On the other hand, you know, we have seen stock markets recover and continue to prosper through (...) the Great Depression and the 2008 Great Financial Crisis". Is that supposed to reassure us that the 'doom and gloom', 'bearish', 'buy gold and wait' people should be ignored? This comment can only come from someone who feels so secure and invulnerable that even the prospect a horrific depression doesn't faze him. From 1929-1933, the Dow went from 381 points down to 41 points, an incredible 89% loss. But don't panic! If you stayed invested (and somehow weren't taxed heavily for the war effort a decade later), you would recover your money in 1954! (Just ignore brokerage and management fees.) Did you need your savings as a pensioner before that time? Were you so disheveled that you didn't stay invested? Did your business go bankrupt and did you lose everything? Did you get 90% taxation rates in wartime? Let's just ignore those possibilities!
There is this belief that no matter the hiccups along the way, everything will sort itself out in a decade at most and we'll get rich anyway. And the belief that 'most of the time, it's somewhere in the middle'. But that doesn't mean you can just dismiss all the warning signs, or that you shouldn't also prepare for something worse. It's kind of like all those inflation forecasts from economists over the last two years that always magically have inflation returning to 2% in a year's time despite there being no historical evidence whatsoever that these inflation surges usually subside quickly (they didn't). It's pure anchoring bias and wishful thinking. We know historically that to defeat inflation, short-term rates generally need to be higher than inflation. The ECB is at 0% while inflation is running at 8-13%. They are hiking in 0.50-0.75 instalments. We are also sitting on the largest debt mountain in world history. How are you supposed to just keep going along with the usual investments in such an environment? With bonds and stocks going down at the same time? Are you kidding me? I still need to watch the full interview, but I'm not sure I want to listen to someone who seems so detached from reality. There are so many historical examples of devastating crises that societies take decades or centuries to recover from. The mainstream just seems to stubbornly believe 'this time is different'. I'm not so sure. We're close to war with Russia. War with China in the next decade is now a genuine possibility. I'm shaking my head.
I mean, I understand people don't want to be associated with the merchants of doom, the perma-bears, 'gold bugs', and so on, but that is absolutely no justification for pretending the economic status quo is sustainable. And I haven't even mentioned the disruption from climate change, migration, polarization, et cetera.
Nah I don't think war with Russia is a possibility atm. They're doing terribly in Ukraine so going to war against the West would be disastrous
Huh
There is this town in the US that invested in a certain beverage company during the depression and they later turned out to be millionaires for having invested when coca colas stock was cheap.
Love both channels
When even Economics Explained is making videos saying that these China collapse videos are bogus that’s when you know they’re bogus.
He even mentioned Money and Macro in his intro and how well made Joeri’s videos are. Might be an interesting discussion to have.
Certainly better than the Patrick Boyle discussion.
There are massive financial and geopolitical risks building in the system that can trigger a collapse that won't be fixed by more money printing, this is not a normal cycle and holding tight just won't cut it.
If you say money printing do you mean QE or government spending? Because the effects are very different.
@@MoneyMacroTalks Both really, QE flooded the financial system with liquidity, made money cheap and inflated asset prices, it also facilitated government spending. I can't see either can be a solution to the next crisis because of persisting inflation and geo political disruptions....and not to forget major sovereign debt issues and failing currencies.
@@MoneyMacroTalks I would also add that claims QE does not escape the central bank system is a fallacy. For one, some Central banks outright bought new government bonds, and for another, QE indirectly leaves the system when banks use their QE funds to buy new treasuries.
@@MoneyMacroTalks I am betting governments will transition to digital new currencies in the near future, and when they do Central bank owned government debt won't get converted over and left forgotten in the analogue currency system. As that all needs to happen in the fractured world of today and the US plans for the digital dollar to be at its centre, don't expect that to be a very smooth transition. My guess is that even US allies won't go along with a digital rerun of Bretton woods and dollar hegemony.
@@brandon-hh7jf sounds like kinda big inflation with a new currency thereafter. Or big inflation and getting back to backed stuff with a new peg rate.
The first minute or so is what is really worrying. If you can make obscenely more money with investing rather than doing actual work, you're fked as a society.
It’s time to do a video on why the US dollar is gaining ground against the currencies of its allies (UK, EU, Japan, India).
Yes the Fed is raising rates which strengthens the dollar but then you can go into why none of these US allies are able to do the same, leading to all time lows in their currencies.
Also you can perhaps debunk the “China’s currency is crashing” narrative pushed by the West. China has the monetary independence to set its exchange rate wherever it chooses. China is likely choosing to weaken its currency to 1) take advantage of the strong dollar, 2) adjust for the weakening currencies around the world and 3) accumulate more forex reserves.
He already made a video about China where he showed how China has achieved monetary independence, I don't think an entirely seperate video is required just to repeat that point in a slightly different context. ruclips.net/video/rsBZ4HG7HWI/видео.html&ab_channel=Money%26Macro
Doesn't China porpusefully make its currency weak to encourage exports?
I wouldn't call India an US ally, they're more like a neutral party. They just happen to hate China more than America.
@@AricHaldan0782 I saw that video and it doesn’t address what is occurring.
Ok, everyone is waiting, I get that. But what and which (indications) are they waiting for, if indicators are, inherently, always lagging?
Edit: M&M basically asked if economists aren't only looking at the (ominous) signals the general public is looking at and noticing, what else do they look at and are those more positive? To which PB basically only answered that investors seem to be waiting and that some basic needs sectors, e.g. grocery stores (and utilities?), are not very good indicators since they'd always do well (enough) regardless the economic climate.
I'm not really buying that answer, though. There was a time that (civil) construction was a safe sector, with pretty solid but shy profit margins but there'd always be demand for new builds. Today we realise that the construction sector is a bubble primarily powered by government spending and all (sme) building contractors have turned their attention to maintenance, renovation and repair, while the few remaining big guys fight in a low-profit cutthroat jungle for the sparse government-funded high-risk megaprojects.
I dont belive in a tital colapse of the US economy, mainly because of the rase in interest rates. So there the chance for super high inflation or somthing like that is low, especialy if interest rates will go even higher, a resession is more likely outcome, maybe fall in real estate prices too (for the consumer it maybe a good thing).
I belive the economy is over stimulated. So now we just return to pre-inflated state, and may get little bit more stabilily out of it (and I make an assumption that china wont colapse in the near future in all I wrote above of course)
Economics is psychology, as long as the Chinese belief in themselves the system will not fall. (and the Chinese psychic is nuts)
It's good that it collapses so you 2 can find a wife and have children.