The Soft Landing Fallacy | Cem Karsan and Andy Constan | PNL For A Purpose
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- Опубликовано: 28 июн 2024
- On April 30th, 2024, SpotGamma and Excess Returns brought together 24 of the smartest minds in the investing world for an all day interview event to raise money for Susan G. Komen. To offer the guests insights in a more digestible format and to continue to raise money for a great cause, we are releasing the interviews in hour long segments in the week following the event. In this episode, Jack Forehand and SpotGamma's Brent Kochuba interview Cem Karsan and Andy Constan. If you are able to, please donate via the link provided alongside the video.
#inflaton #macro
Full PNL For a Purpose Video With All 24 Interviews
ruclips.net/user/lived6LB0AqFeT8
00:00 - Intro
00:35 - Cem Karsan
29:24 - Andy Constan
Cem, I am so sorry for your loss. I have been watching your interviews for so long and have learned so much from you. I appreciate it and I have you in my prayers my friend.
Persistent inflammation is a leading indicator for cancer development. Please take care of yourselves. Listen to your body. Healthy living choices go a long way. Don’t ignore signals of diminishing health.
Excellent
9:10 “unpinned from gold” = more fiscal space, more freedom, can target full employment, can optimize our real wealth… what’s the problem with that? Huh?
I like listening to Cem but I strongly disagree that sending money to planet Palo Alto was/is deflationary. Those are monopolies and monopolies are inflationary
Thanks, Cem, nice work. Andy, meh.
13:24 “continue to slow as interest rates increase over time” = not with Debt to GDP so high, that’s free money for people who already have money, universal basic income for bondholders (UBBI), banks will keep on increasing credit with the easy returns they can get with higher rates, and we love credit these days… something’s not adding up Cem
Investment in technology has (relatively) more cash flows in the future… higher rates will decrease investment in technology.
@@maxb232 I can’t see that being the case in the U.S. when so much innovation in technology and research is funding directly by the federal government, which is the source and sole creator of U.S. Dollars. If we have politicians that are willing to invest in tech, then the investment will happen. You vote for politicians that want to invest, yes? Like I do?
@@MichaeldeSousaCruzthat’s a pretty big “If”, completely dependent on politics. Even so; higher rates will make *government* investment in technology more expensive as well. In addition to it already being a far less efficient allocator of capital.
@@maxb232 Point 1 - Politics: yes a pretty big “if”, scary isn’t it? But that’s how it works. Best to study (if you are in the U.S.) the constitution and law code (U.S. Code in the U.S.).
Point 2 - Solvency: Government can always make any payment in its own currency. Back to point 1, the politicians must be willing, and understand their constitutional principles.
Point 3 - Effectiveness: efficiency is for things. Effective is for people. Government is made up of people, so effective is the proper term for government, not efficiency (this mistake happens all the time).
Ineffective is the word that better applies.
8:55 “U.S. Debt” = Our Money Supply (Cash, Reserves and Treasury Securities that have not yet been used to pay taxes… what’s the problem with Our Money? Huh?)
14:25 “expectations of inflation” = huh?? Fed tells us what inflation is, 5.25%-5.5%… that is the rate of inflation, the rate of the continuous increase of the price level… where are you guys getting this stuff… it’s not what I learned in economics and accounting 🤷♂️
Andy is clueless. He is currently short bonds, stocks, and Apple. He is getting blasted very very badly. His calls are almost always wrong. Usually the market moves the other way as soon as he makes a call. He posts stupid meme's and pretends like he is smart or has gotten something right when he has been badly wrong. He is just trying to fleece people for subscriptions. He is obviously a paper trader because he would be flat broke if he followed his own advice.