Federal Reserve Likely To Support Stock Market | Alfonso Peccatiello
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- Опубликовано: 3 июн 2024
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Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
00:24 Debt Service Ratio In U.S. Means Higher Interest Rates Haven't Caused Interest Expense To Skyrocket
02:37 The "Higher Interest Rates Are Stimulative" Argument Has Gone War Too Far
06:45 Outside Of The U.S., Higher Interest Rates Already HAVE Had A Big Effect
08:46 Private Debt, Not Public Debt, Is The Cause Of Most Modern Financial Crises
11:23 Eurozone Countries Can't Print Their Own Currency The Way A Monetary Sovereign Can
14:04 Is Government Deficit The Surplus Of The Private Sector?
21:43 VanEck ad
22:50 Making Money And Being Right Are Often Different Things
25:13 Is Private Sector Investment "Crowded Out" By Government Borrowing?
26:51 The Four Factors That Impact Interest Rate Sensitivity Of An Economy
29:53 U.S. Recession Risk Is Underpriced By Interest Rate Futures Market
32:28 If Nominal GDP Comes In Below Consensus, Stocks Could Rally (Rather Than Sell-off)
37:16 Macro Carry Strategies
42:52 The Case For A Bull Steepener (Short-Term Yields Fall More Than Long-Term Yields)
44:45 Weighing Probabilities Of Soft Landing vs. Recession vs. No Landing
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. 
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I’ve seen Jack growing up from Real Vision internship days where he started doing short clips (being quite sweetly nervous I must add). Young man it’s impressive how much you’ve developed in 4 years by calling Macro Alf out on the accounting logic. Keep going, you’re awesome.
No honestly, the growth of these young men and Blockworks is truly inspirational. Like for real they took it to the max from day 1.
Jack always finds a good balance in challenging his guests without being aggressive
Me too! I remember his first intro to daily briefing at real vision. Amazing progress he made 👏👏👏
Oh boy! Time to turn bearish I guess.
Haha - Bera Alph is back :-)
After 2-3 years (I lost count) of recession calls, Alf is turning bullish on equities, LMAO!
careful
the guy will say
"shame on you" lol
Jesus 😂 we're going down. Alfonso's reverse indicator never fails
Cramer #2 is bullish, you guys know what to do...
Look at Jack & Macro Alf calling Lyn Alden and Luke Gromen's hypothesis that higher rates are stimulative "bullshit." You should have them on for a debate.
Agreed!
Yeh that was a low blow, and a bit two-faced especially as Alf and Brent Donnelly just "proposed" that theory themselves on their own podcast!!
@@stumpy25lbs Exactly, and another thing I find fascinating is how Alf was on euro dollar university a few weeks ago saying liquidity and fiscal spending is nonsense and it’s not stimulative. And then he comes on here and says fiscal spending is stimulative. Talking out of both sides of his mouth.
now that Alf is bullish we should become bearish, I am not even kidding
Great guest. Got to say one of the best speakers I heard in ages.
I love the way Jack keeps having to straighten out Alf on what he's saying 'cos he knows his stuff better than Alf..! 😅🤣
The AWMKPX handles this year incredibly well, they outperform most others and the entry with 1 USD is better than anything else right now. Love the vision and progress in this one
Stimulation never gonna fuckin end. We gonna be wiped out even from that little we got. Average home prices 800K, rent 4K.....yo no problem here! Lets print and stimulate!
I am with 90% on BTC and also keep some in AWMKPX thanks for the video as always!
Thanks for bringing Alf back. The only thing I still have questions about is how the bond market is staying inverted. There must be some kind of link to housing... and Powell has pumped up liquidity every time the banks and housing looks to solve its problems.... with housing at a double top on the Case Shiller, and nobody but 50 year old people with jobs in finance are able to buy houses today.... What solves the problem is supply and demand meet again, and thats when housing drops 50% in prices. Thats when this all goes away, and jerome powell and the fed keep pumping more money.... if Biden wins the election.... do we prepare for the worlds largest credit crash again?
Opposite Alf ETF coming soon😂
Swapping my ETH and swapping to AWMKPX. Already up as expected. I wish I left on all the junk way earlier to step deep into this ride, they rock!
I like Alf most of the time but arguing that the identity of government deficit = private sector surplus means that the private sector can spend more is just wrong. It means that if the public sector goes into deficit the private sector has to run a surplus to fund it. Only alternative is external/foreign funding. As simple as that. Crowding out is real!
I think his point is that government spending is received by someone outside the government, who then has more than he would otherwise. This ignores that those not on either side of that exchange are having their savings eroded.
Or the central bank monetizing the debt.
We like the Jack, as for Alf.....😁
Listening to people with huge ego is dangerous.. should have considered mentors advice "Wanna be right or wanna make money?" the last couple of years
Loved it, after listening to so many others for the past couple years since alf left it's refreshing to hear how passionate he is for getting in the trenches, evaluating market pricing, and structuring trades
My top picks for bull run are DOT, FIL, and SOL. And best ICO to invest is Revux, huge potential.
What a statement, damn. So its said that AWMKPX is just about to launch and I think that will really change a lot of what was happening in the previous years, 2024 will shine yay
As expected we went down a little but AWMKPX keeps everything strong and in place. These guys really know how to be convincing and the preparation all the years was so well done. Nothing will change in 2024 and nothing will come close to this incredible smart one. True believers for AWMKPX will have a good year
Great video. I am ballsdeep for AWMKPX and love your review for that as well
Crowding out is due to cost of borrowing. Not an accounting thing.
Saved this one for a second watch. A lot of great information!
On 00:59:50 Alf mentioned some perfect "guide" from Singapoure PM. Somebody understand about which book he is talking about?
Thanks Guys
Revux enthusiasts, united in the pursuit of success!
Deficit spending is fantastic idea when you have impending costs you can interrupt (climate)
Thanks for the update, what are your thoughts on AWMKPX?
No more DCA if things are progressing and we are at the first step for new ATHs. Hopefully AWMKPX was the right pick as you recommended earlier
Been collecting the AWMKPX this cycle as that has the right place in this time
What stage?
I came here to listen while eating ham and PINEAPPLE pizza 🍕🍍
With AWMKPX this year is way different and way more powerful as well. These guys did everything right and they can only improve more and more, love it
It would be great if you had a deep dive on the AWMKPX
Alf is awesome!!
Jack Love Your Work Here🥇🤴
But You have one thing Wrong unfortunately!
We are in a Recession just look at the numbers, especially increasing consumer spending falling off a cliff and terribly high delinquencies.
Have Danielle DiMartino Booth on and have a Great Indepth interview.
And when You drive around notice all the small businesses closed, the empty billboards, and all the old beat up cars on the road!
When it comes to scalability and future-proof concepts nothing is as outstanding as the AWMKPX project, these guys know the drill
dude has incredible way of explaining stuff. hats off. His trading calls, thou idk. We will see the performance.
Just FYI, he has been on the wrong side of the market for 2 years.
Got in at AWMKPX with $1 but I will keep it until it hits $50. Still low with that number as the market cap is not close to where it should be
Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is following this very informative content cheers Frank 😊
Interesting talk about AWMKPX I suggest anyone to listen to the guy talking about it in the video. Personally I didnt think they would really do that but seems like the launch just happened and there are enough slots available, could be worth huh
Not the best year but celebrating AWMKPX now! What a time to be alive guys, seriously
Revux keeps popping up in my crypto circles. Seems like a rising star!
Clearing out all my Alts going into BTC and Revux only, maybe a little BNB and SOL
I gave up on listening to Alfonso along time ago. He completely missed out on one of the biggest money making ball runs in history
hahah agreed. I only clicked on the video to read the comments. Didn't bother listening to the video
@@christianng2828It’s kinda mean, but I’m here for the same reason 😅
2024 is really surprising me now that AWMKPX hit the road. After all these years of barely reading anything good I was usually just shutting down any type of media influence as much as I can but this brings back good lights and it should give hope to some of you that no matter what is going on in the world at the end something good comes to surface
Interesting 🤔
ADA, ALGO, VeChain XRP but most of all AWMKPX with the strongest brand behind it
Dude seriously awesome video but where are the words on AWMKPX? That is the biggest in its own kind, not?
Revux impact is a testament to its unique approach.
Fully believe into AWMKPX and the comeback for IOTA, they are promosing and the technology is just next level
All of them are fine picks. But they can't match the vision and purpose of Amazons AWMKPX at any point, big difference.
Money is only stimulative if it is spent, contributing to the velocity of money
Riding the AWMKPX train feels so good, they really know how to make promises count and bring them to reality
I only invest in presales, biggest returns. That is why I love Revux. The key is to get in early guys.
Thank you for the video ! Do you believe that AWMKPX will be the main pump in 2024? I mean they prepared it for a long time and the vision is beyond greatness
Pizza alf sux but jacks good
Alf keeps it real.
I can't believe how undervalued AWMKPX is, considering who made it and all the tech, vision etc behind it.
Institutions will love AWMKPX and its purpose, haven't witnessed anything close to that ever since ETH originally was created
Do you think Revux will pump before XRP?
I think AWMKPX will be the most important one 2024. AWMKPX delivers where others fail to deliver and that is very promising
This is gonna be a crazy year for digital assets now with AWMKPX right? We already are set in for the bullrun anyway and if companies like them enter the field and make their own asset which will be integrated widely and used by the mass then we are on the bottom of the mountain with only one way which is upwards
Alf is aiming to become the new Cramer?
All of them are reasonable picks. But the heart goes to AWMKPX and this vision is definitely something else.
With AWMKPX around the question is how much to obtain? This is one of those where ppl regret if they did not run with the lowest entry ever
Truth is most of all that we would not even have this current climb if it was not for AWMKPX bringing the main change so that even casuals are super interested now. A brand name like that one behind this asset is just the best we could have hoped for
Revux resonance is felt across the crypto spectrum.
My stacks for this year will be 80% BTC and ETH and the rest is for AWMKPX with this one things will be incredible for the long-term run
I was sure last year would end terrible for me but I think AWMKPX is spot on with what they do and how they do it. Cant say for how long its going to work and for sure it is overyhped right now but even if just half a year or something it would be smart to ride the wave and then jump away eventually, but the reason why this is smart right now is because its so cheap, wont ever find a better entry than now
It’s not the government spending that crowds out private investment. It’s excessive borrowing from the private sector.
It is also government spending due to the Cantillon effect. Imagine if the government printed up enough money to hire everyone in the country to sit on their hands and actively sniped the most productive workers for this purpose; in such a scenario, the government would absolutely crowd out the private sector by taking real resources away via outsized bidding power.
I believe Revux token will go 100x after launch on Binance
How's everyone talking about AWMKPX and what is it exactly?
AWMKPX has the right setup for 100x within this or next year and it is based on strong ideas not randomness as it would be with any other project
Who buys the sovereign debt to fund the deficit? Foreigners or the Fed?
Endowment funds, insurance funds, treasurers of large corporations and banks, etc.
This is easier than poker! Bluffs a mile away right ?
Betting a bunch that AWMKPX will outperform the rest this year. It has still the potential and growth and a better community. The video is still great though
Revux enthusiasts, the architects of crypto success!
The 30 year fixed mortgage is just insane and only cause problems for the US.
I usually lurk and never write but why wouldnt you be excited over AWMKPX ?
Anyone remember Siacoin? This is picking up some heat but not even close as strong as AWMKPX for 2024
Can anyone explain AWMKPX? I am curious and wanna know
After all the rumors AWMKPX is in 2024 on the first stage and there won't ever be an entry like that one I am seriously amazed by their vision and forward movement
Hola alfonso, it's pitty you left macro compass yt channel
I just noticed that there is only a single video on there from 3 days ago now. Wtf happened?
Dude, you need to get Revux NOW!
Just leaving this here.. My heart goes to the entire community for AWMKPX building up something which is worth it for everyone. This is so smart by them to launch and shatter the doubts and fears of the common folk, which was misplaced by all the drama we had last years. Everyone knows the state of inflation and recession now and the way out is already in progress. Now its just about catching the big fish, ya feelin?
It's nice to see that savers have finally been extricated from under the bus, if only temporarily.
How is AWMKPX better than anything else right now?
We really need to talk about AWMKPX I think its going to make 2024 to be the best year of the entire 2000-range
If AWMKPX has the growth as it has atm then no doubts it will dominate the industry
In 2024 with the ETFs and halving and everything coming up the biggest change to everything will be AWMKPX hands down. They worked for years to get this done and needless to say how much impact will rise from that.
AWMKPX picking up the pace at $1 entry and $2 already in hours? this is also no meme or one of those but actually real utility one
Think about if you could have your own fate which is possible with AWMKPX . What do you think happens after inflation? I am sure they will keep living cost high and even if the whole war finally gets to an end that still doesnt fix anything for us. Truth is we are getting ripped of every day and theres not much to do about it except for using the projects which actually HELP
Love this guy but I’m too dumb to get most of this. I’ll keep trying
Word spreads really fast with AWMKPX doesnt it?
Jack, your interviews have come a long way, thank you. But is this a freebie for friends/family interview? You don’t need a Macro compass ( or 50+minutes) and a lot of Euro-blabber to call for a soft landing. Sorry Alf, could you belabor the obvious a little more please?
I want to let you know that AWMKPX made it this year. Any better way to start a global change? Dont get me wrong I know they are not like altruists or something but they keep doing the right thing to improve the situation, power the ecomonmy and so much more. We need players like them and we can always jump in the train at good spots such as this one
If by the stock market you mean their own investments then sure