Merry Christmas Both and Thank You for all the hard work, and Discord Commentary, which has aided my investment decisions this year! Much appreciated and wishing that the same applies for your own decisions in 2025. Good Luck!
Happy Christmas and thanks for your huge efforts. Personally, I will drink as much alcohol as possible, but this is not to be taken as financial advice.
Re Kalecki-Levy question, there’s also the issue of non US profits being included in the S&P500 eps but not being sourced/boosted from the US deficit. For example Think Apple’s ‘Irish’ sourced profits. US national accounts US domestic profits do seem to show a flattening. But more broadly surely you’re right - any reduction in the growth of the deficit should crimp US-sourced profits.
Very good point about non-US profits. If those are repatriated to pay dividends to shareholders that would appear in the capital account, not the current account.
Merry Christmas. I think there is a lot that could be done with demand management, to reduce electricity consumption at times of shortage. e.g. if comsumers paid a price connected with the spot price, the demand at peak prices would reduce. This should be possible with elec cars, smart meters etc. Power could also be storeged in varoius ways, batteries, chemical storage etc.
I agree with you. Batteries are very expensive and we should be using all the ones we have available. There must be a way to incentivise EV owners to store energy from the grid when we have an excess of wind power. However, it appears that one of the main problems we have is a lack of grid capacity to transport wind power down from Scotland to the rest of the country. That should be one of our priorities
Question on US Corporate Profits' trend 2025 > How much, and/or where, in the Kalecki Levy analysis, do productivity gains play (eg from AI, deregulation gains etc. etc.)?
I don't think they do feature in the analysis. Productivity gains do not necessarily result in higher profits: think the steel industry. Higher productivity results in higher output per worker but it is not necessarily the firm who benefits. That depends on their competitive position in the market. The Kalecki-Levy model looks at the profitability of the entirety of the corporate sector. Even if it predicts that corporate profits as a whole will fall there will obviously be firms that continue to increase profitability while total corporate profits decline.
50:00 I met somebody at a Christmas party who didn't work because of 'mental health'. She said it took her a while but she got signed off for bipolar disorder and depression or something. She was one of these mental health responders. Total game but if I had someone to support me and could get 50% of my wage in benefits for not working then I would I suppose..... Also I think you will find China is communist but in a different way to western communism. Did you know that Chinese banks, property companies & state enterprises are all ran by party officials & that strategic objectives like the passenger aircraft industry is ran by the state. It also influences private enterprise through both infiltration & policies like that of document 9, which you may have heard of...... It basically sees itself in an economic cold war for world power.
There are so many legal benefit scams I know loads of single people going back to uni to do a degree to get the tax free maintance loan and 100% council tax write off, they normally have a part time job earn 1k per month tax free and take tax free cash from pension to top up income. Semi retirement for two days per week graft return to work and ensure anything over 27k goes into pension which they can withdraw tax free cash from straight away then you never pay any of the loan back. Also if your a couple both work two days per week earn 1k per month tax free each thats 2k coming in with paying nothing back in. If you have three or more children (under 16) and your in rented say paying 1k per month rent you can get roughly another 2.5k tax free per month in benefits even more if the children are diagonosed with adhd. So essentially you are getting rent paid for and netting £3.5 k (ish) tax free after rent from part time work and benefits. You can see why so many don't want to increase their working hours when they can spend 3 days of the working week in pub beer gardens. I would stress this is all legal just shows what a bonkers system we are running but equally if you earn into tax you will lose 20p in income tax, 8p national insurance , and 55p universal credit withdrawal rate so you keep 17p in the pound again you can see why millions don't bother.
Thanks for continuing the pod casts chaps keep with bi weekly to give you both time to enjoy life, re renewables and the balmy UK system you have probably seen last year over a billion was paid out to wind farms to turn off when they were generating to much electric. Wouldn't you have thought over the last decade someone would have had the idea maybe get the storage sorted before the generation system but I suppose its who cares when its not your money your spending. Crimenal waste of money.
Sadly I think that it is only going to get worse. I have more coming up on UK electricity prices in the coming weekly, out monday next. You may have seen the long FT article about the difficulty of building new grid infrastructure - RSPB is protesting a cable that would go underground bird habitats and cause only temporary disruption, opposition to pylons is even worse. We need to improve the grid in order to integrate renewables better and to avoid having to pay windfarms to turn off. Getting anything done in this country is increasingly difficult.
![Seungmin "그렇게, 천천히, 우리(As we are)" | [Stray Kids : SKZ-PLAYER]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/kAzmhLHePqU/mqdefault.jpg)
Merry Christmas Both and Thank You for all the hard work, and Discord Commentary, which has aided my investment decisions this year!
Much appreciated and wishing that the same applies for your own decisions in 2025. Good Luck!
Merry Christmas Keith and Richard :) enjoy some calm days with friends and family :)
Have a great break - thanks to you and Richard for continuing the work! All the best
Merry Christmas 🎅
Happy Christmas and thanks for your huge efforts.
Personally, I will drink as much alcohol as possible, but this is not to be taken as financial advice.
Same here. Had to take a night off last night to allow my liver to recover. Happy New Year
Re Kalecki-Levy question, there’s also the issue of non US profits being included in the S&P500 eps but not being sourced/boosted from the US deficit. For example Think Apple’s ‘Irish’ sourced profits. US national accounts US domestic profits do seem to show a flattening. But more broadly surely you’re right - any reduction in the growth of the deficit should crimp US-sourced profits.
Very good point about non-US profits. If those are repatriated to pay dividends to shareholders that would appear in the capital account, not the current account.
Merry Christmas. I think there is a lot that could be done with demand management, to reduce electricity consumption at times of shortage. e.g. if comsumers paid a price connected with the spot price, the demand at peak prices would reduce. This should be possible with elec cars, smart meters etc. Power could also be storeged in varoius ways, batteries, chemical storage etc.
I agree with you. Batteries are very expensive and we should be using all the ones we have available. There must be a way to incentivise EV owners to store energy from the grid when we have an excess of wind power. However, it appears that one of the main problems we have is a lack of grid capacity to transport wind power down from Scotland to the rest of the country. That should be one of our priorities
Question on US Corporate Profits' trend 2025 >
How much, and/or where, in the Kalecki Levy analysis, do productivity gains play (eg from AI, deregulation gains etc. etc.)?
I don't think they do feature in the analysis. Productivity gains do not necessarily result in higher profits: think the steel industry. Higher productivity results in higher output per worker but it is not necessarily the firm who benefits. That depends on their competitive position in the market. The Kalecki-Levy model looks at the profitability of the entirety of the corporate sector. Even if it predicts that corporate profits as a whole will fall there will obviously be firms that continue to increase profitability while total corporate profits decline.
50:00 I met somebody at a Christmas party who didn't work because of 'mental health'. She said it took her a while but she got signed off for bipolar disorder and depression or something. She was one of these mental health responders. Total game but if I had someone to support me and could get 50% of my wage in benefits for not working then I would I suppose..... Also I think you will find China is communist but in a different way to western communism. Did you know that Chinese banks, property companies & state enterprises are all ran by party officials & that strategic objectives like the passenger aircraft industry is ran by the state. It also influences private enterprise through both infiltration & policies like that of document 9, which you may have heard of...... It basically sees itself in an economic cold war for world power.
There are so many legal benefit scams I know loads of single people going back to uni to do a degree to get the tax free maintance loan and 100% council tax write off, they normally have a part time job earn 1k per month tax free and take tax free cash from pension to top up income. Semi retirement for two days per week graft return to work and ensure anything over 27k goes into pension which they can withdraw tax free cash from straight away then you never pay any of the loan back.
Also if your a couple both work two days per week earn 1k per month tax free each thats 2k coming in with paying nothing back in. If you have three or more children (under 16) and your in rented say paying 1k per month rent you can get roughly another 2.5k tax free per month in benefits even more if the children are diagonosed with adhd.
So essentially you are getting rent paid for and netting £3.5 k (ish) tax free after rent from part time work and benefits. You can see why so many don't want to increase their working hours when they can spend 3 days of the working week in pub beer gardens.
I would stress this is all legal just shows what a bonkers system we are running but equally if you earn into tax you will lose 20p in income tax, 8p national insurance , and 55p universal credit withdrawal rate so you keep 17p in the pound again you can see why millions don't bother.
Thanks for continuing the pod casts chaps keep with bi weekly to give you both time to enjoy life, re renewables and the balmy UK system you have probably seen last year over a billion was paid out to wind farms to turn off when they were generating to much electric. Wouldn't you have thought over the last decade someone would have had the idea maybe get the storage sorted before the generation system but I suppose its who cares when its not your money your spending.
Crimenal waste of money.
Sadly I think that it is only going to get worse. I have more coming up on UK electricity prices in the coming weekly, out monday next. You may have seen the long FT article about the difficulty of building new grid infrastructure - RSPB is protesting a cable that would go underground bird habitats and cause only temporary disruption, opposition to pylons is even worse. We need to improve the grid in order to integrate renewables better and to avoid having to pay windfarms to turn off. Getting anything done in this country is increasingly difficult.