Interesting data Jason. Judging by where we started in this January, 900K inventory is very much on the table this year. Quite a transition from the last few years. Appreciate the great work.
Great info. The problem for me is no matter the level of inventory, it seems people are still overpricing their houses by 300% of their value in 2017-2019. Even worse, people are paying the over inflated prices. At what point do the prices start to come back to normal?
The country as a whole averages 4-5 appreciation a year Depending on the market you are in your values could be up 5-10% for that year or down 5-10% for the year
Thank you Jason for compiling & sharing your inventory and real estate facts. Some may not like it but "facts are facts" and your presentation is the best ❤️💯
That active listings graph is beautiful. Looking like the inverse of 2020 although we will see if that coorilation continues throughout the rest of the year
For me living in the central midwest which is a slower cheaper market, I tend to review by the average price per sqft rather than the nation average house price. Having traveled to different states and I grew up in Sacramento too, even like here in Oklahoma the types of houses and models are different blueprints and sizes. I'm also looking to invest or moving the future so it gives me an idea of the cost difference with different states having different job markets and economic impact. The price per square footage on a house in different cities shows a lot more details in affordability.
Hey man, love your videos, longtime fan. I’m curious if you can do one on Utah’s market? Specifically southern Utah. St. George has been one of the fastest growing metro areas in the US for many years and seems unfazed by everything going on in the rest of the country. Very strange market here. Thank you for all your wisdom.
Jason brother, you’ve got to stop comparing to 2022. Makes 0 sense to compare any new data to that of which was an anomaly. (Unless you believe rates will double again this year like they did in 22’.)
Thank you. I'm only comparing it because 2022 was the last time prices fell significantly and I think it's valid to share why prices fell (and how that compares or is different to now).
@@jrobinson5661 I’d love to buy a home in AZ. Looks like prices have over doubled in the last 5 years. Here in MN we didnt double, not even close. That’s bonkers.
in florida just about every house is way over 100 days on the market with nothing but price decreases and now the zestimate is always 10-30k lower than what people are posting their homes for. Thing is even if they drop them to the zestimate levels theyre still in a bubble and everyone knows that thats why theres near 0 new home buyers and its all a paper tiger propped up by people moving from one bubble house to another bubble house. You buy a home right now youre gonna lose money on it bigtime no1 is playing that game. Renting is cheaper than buying and doesnt break even till year 20 lmao.
A rate decrease will increase demand and eat up supply. In order to have high supply and low rates we need a negative event like an economic crash that causes high unemployment and financial distress.
@@peacefreedom4930 I've been seeing a lot comments that an economic crash not going to happen. But I do agree that the interest needs to remain high so high demand doesn't eat up supply
Your awesome o listened twice . Ok so it’s fair to say we need to compared 17-18-19 to now . The covid time was insane . So inventory is down . Even tho prices are up and rates . Over all inventory is down. Some of the best economists expected prices to drop when rates went from 3 to 7% and they did not. Very interesting
Properties in Frederick Maryland are hot now in June 2024. My niece who works for AC/Heating company told me that more than 80% of their business are in new home constructions.
Jason... how are u calculating your YTD Changes? 787,722-582,441 ≠ 120,1553. Sales from April to Jan is not YTD... Jan 2024 compared to Jan 2023 is a YTD change.
Right now we are experiencing the "reverse baby boom", and it is likely to go on for another 5 years. That labor shortage of 3.5 million boomer retirees every year makes a recession and high unemployment difficult, as well as causing minimal foreclosures. The government needs to incentivize a home building boom. Builders are playing it safe, and the Fed needs to lower rates to save the large parts of the banking system. Lower rates will mean another boom in housing prices. You may get a small crash, but it won't have the effect you are waiting for. Perhaps, just the opposite.
@@williamjohnson9815 the crash bros don't want any govt intervention, but it might be the only thing that will speed things up (building and buying), like you said
@@williamjohnson9815not to mention increasing immigration and demand from investors. I really feel bad for 1st time homebuyers who couldn’t afford it at all but I don’t feel bad for 1st time homebuyers who were able to afford it comfortably but choose to listen to crashbros that are trying to time the market and now priced out.
It’s not about a crash, it’s much bigger than that. America is dead and separation of classes will get worse and worse. America is an idea, not a place. We are watching the 2030 agenda right before our eyes. The crash bro shit needs to stop. It’s patriots trying to have hope for a future country to live in. Not a lot of deep thinkers here in America and it’s allowed wallstreet and China to take over.
![Tee Grizzley - Blow for Blow (feat. J. Cole) [Official Video]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/wNLN5xsx5dc/mqdefault.jpg)
Interesting data Jason. Judging by where we started in this January, 900K inventory is very much on the table this year. Quite a transition from the last few years. Appreciate the great work.
Big difference from the ~350k in Feb 2022! Thank you for commenting.
Yeah if we hit 800k by July we will be at a 4 year high, and if we hit 1 million the spring of 2025 we will be at pre-pandemic levels
Great info. The problem for me is no matter the level of inventory, it seems people are still overpricing their houses by 300% of their value in 2017-2019. Even worse, people are paying the over inflated prices. At what point do the prices start to come back to normal?
short answer never , long answer wall street owns everything.
The country as a whole averages 4-5 appreciation a year
Depending on the market you are in your values could be up 5-10% for that year or down 5-10% for the year
Thank you Jason for compiling & sharing your inventory and real estate facts. Some may not like it but "facts are facts" and your presentation is the best ❤️💯
Thank you!
The probability of inventory increase is high nationwide. However, it won’t happen super fast.
It would be nice if you could chart the buyers, I believe this would give a better outlook on the market.
That active listings graph is beautiful. Looking like the inverse of 2020 although we will see if that coorilation continues throughout the rest of the year
For me living in the central midwest which is a slower cheaper market, I tend to review by the average price per sqft rather than the nation average house price. Having traveled to different states and I grew up in Sacramento too, even like here in Oklahoma the types of houses and models are different blueprints and sizes. I'm also looking to invest or moving the future so it gives me an idea of the cost difference with different states having different job markets and economic impact. The price per square footage on a house in different cities shows a lot more details in affordability.
Hey man, love your videos, longtime fan. I’m curious if you can do one on Utah’s market? Specifically southern Utah. St. George has been one of the fastest growing metro areas in the US for many years and seems unfazed by everything going on in the rest of the country. Very strange market here. Thank you for all your wisdom.
Thank you for supporting the channel. I’ve tried researching UT stats but hand found very little publicly available data unfortunately.
I would love info on Utah county (Provo to SLC area)! Seems like inventory is exploding.
Amazing analysis! Thank you for all that data analysis… Invaluable Information!!
Glad it was helpful! Thank you
Thank you for the update Jason
you bet!
Thanks for this in-depth analysis!
My pleasure!
It's all about the data, that is what leads to the conclusion.
Jason brother, you’ve got to stop comparing to 2022. Makes 0 sense to compare any new data to that of which was an anomaly. (Unless you believe rates will double again this year like they did in 22’.)
Thank you. I'm only comparing it because 2022 was the last time prices fell significantly and I think it's valid to share why prices fell (and how that compares or is different to now).
The market is still cornered 🤷♂️
You would think a 35% increase of inventory nationwide will cause the price to drop significantly. It’ll be nice if we have the percentage on demand😂
Truth
I hear ya! Good morning
@@JasonWalter1 good morning Jason thanks for sharing information.
Shows you just how low inventory was.
It’s still below norms in most locations.
Inventories increasing and sales is decreasing that’s a recipe for disaster
Still not enough inventory. We’re still up 6% year over year.
@House_hacker_619 Inventory burn rate is still.a paltry 3.X months. Average is 6. Hence prices continue to rise and rise.and rise.
@@JimFriend-iw3ev They can charge whatever they want but then also sit there. :D
As homes go for sale in my subdivision, they quickly get bought.
Same here in NJ. But now its 1-2 weeks instead of 1-2 days.
Not in AZ…they sit for a while
Same in North Houston.
@@jrobinson5661 I’d love to buy a home in AZ. Looks like prices have over doubled in the last 5 years. Here in MN we didnt double, not even close. That’s bonkers.
Great video Jason, I literally tweeted at you this morning about this but seems like you're not active there. Great minds think alike
Love this
Thank you for sharing
Cash will carry hold on and wait #newrich
Housing market will most likely be positive from November 2024 on.
in florida just about every house is way over 100 days on the market with nothing but price decreases and now the zestimate is always 10-30k lower than what people are posting their homes for. Thing is even if they drop them to the zestimate levels theyre still in a bubble and everyone knows that thats why theres near 0 new home buyers and its all a paper tiger propped up by people moving from one bubble house to another bubble house. You buy a home right now youre gonna lose money on it bigtime no1 is playing that game. Renting is cheaper than buying and doesnt break even till year 20 lmao.
AZ is not far behind…homes sitting and price decreases are common…everything is WAY overpriced…
I usually buy home in the Winter season when prices are low. Hoping for the rate decrease here soon as well.
A rate decrease will increase demand and eat up supply. In order to have high supply and low rates we need a negative event like an economic crash that causes high unemployment and financial distress.
@@peacefreedom4930 I've been seeing a lot comments that an economic crash not going to happen. But I do agree that the interest needs to remain high so high demand doesn't eat up supply
@@peacefreedom4930 The yield curve has been inverted for a record amount of time. Recession is likely coming.
Super informative wow , thank you … 😊
Your awesome o listened twice . Ok so it’s fair to say we need to compared 17-18-19 to now . The covid time was insane . So inventory is down . Even tho prices are up and rates . Over all inventory is down. Some of the best economists expected prices to drop when rates went from 3 to 7% and they did not. Very interesting
Very interesting indeed!
1
Nice work 🎉
@@oletreed4230 I try to do good work
Good morning!!
Happy Hump day Jason, by my dumb math!🤣😂🤣
Wednesday already?! Time flies. Good morning
Properties in Frederick Maryland are hot now in June 2024. My niece who works for AC/Heating company told me that more than 80% of their business are in new home constructions.
Excellent as always. Thank you.
Thank you!
Viewing from their websites, it appears that new homes in Atlanta are sitting for extended periods of time. What do your stats say?
Good morning
Good morning! 🏡😀
🤙🏽👍🏽🌴🌺🍍
Good morning!
Jason... how are u calculating your YTD Changes? 787,722-582,441 ≠ 120,1553. Sales from April to Jan is not YTD... Jan 2024 compared to Jan 2023 is a YTD change.
Jan 2024 compared to Jan 2023 is a YOY change, not YTD. The YTD is the change so far this year.
I feel your pain crashbros. I’m waiting on the sideline too😂
Right now we are experiencing the "reverse baby boom", and it is likely to go on for another 5 years. That labor shortage of 3.5 million boomer retirees every year makes a recession and high unemployment difficult, as well as causing minimal foreclosures. The government needs to incentivize a home building boom. Builders are playing it safe, and the Fed needs to lower rates to save the large parts of the banking system. Lower rates will mean another boom in housing prices. You may get a small crash, but it won't have the effect you are waiting for. Perhaps, just the opposite.
@@williamjohnson9815 the crash bros don't want any govt intervention, but it might be the only thing that will speed things up (building and buying), like you said
@@williamjohnson9815not to mention increasing immigration and demand from investors. I really feel bad for 1st time homebuyers who couldn’t afford it at all but I don’t feel bad for 1st time homebuyers who were able to afford it comfortably but choose to listen to crashbros that are trying to time the market and now priced out.
It’s not about a crash, it’s much bigger than that. America is dead and separation of classes will get worse and worse. America is an idea, not a place. We are watching the 2030 agenda right before our eyes. The crash bro shit needs to stop. It’s patriots trying to have hope for a future country to live in. Not a lot of deep thinkers here in America and it’s allowed wallstreet and China to take over.
@@davidallen2682so what do you want to do? Declare war against china and Wall Street. Go ahead 😂