Agreed. I ride bmx so not as expensive as others, but I spent over 2 grand building up my custom bike, and I believe that is utterly ridiculous considering there's electric bikes and dirt bikes in that price range
The bike industry took the piss during covid and raised prices to ridiculously high levels. I like lots of other people started to look at cheaper alternatives from suppliers that I probably wouldn't have given too much consideration before and found thay they were actually very good, and as a result will probably not be going back to the big brands any time soon.
Oh yes when there were Bikes avalible then Most the High Spec ones for More Than 10k € or $. Becouse Parts were Rare and the Margin was higher on those Bikes.
I have friends that are doctors, lawyers and bankers saying $3,000 is too much to spend on a starter bike.... and people in the industry thought a 10k bike on sale to 8k is a steal. No room for anyone to enter the elite sport
I'm one of them well off people that went to buy a bike to get outdoors with. Bike shops turned stupid. No way I'd buy a $10k MTB to ride "trails" in FLORIDA! SO, I took a chance on the Schwinn Axum (Wal Mart ordered). $400 bike that has done everything I needed and wanted it to do. I haven't even upgraded anything. How does a bike shop justify $10k MTBs for florida trails? Then look down their noses at you when you don't buy stupid expensive bikes. When this Axum tears up, I'll buy another one. Do you realize how many Schwinns I can go thru for $10k? 25! That's how many....25!
The bike industry mostly brought this upon themselves: they pushed products no one wanted, or that are inferior to previous ones (eg., hookless rims, aero road bikes that weigh 10.5kg). They raised prices to an extent that can partly be explained by manufacturing and supply chain issues, but can mostly be explained by greed. They decided to follow Apple's example and make compatibility between components an impossibility. In general, the industry have treated their customers with open contempt, and, aside from local bike shops and small specialty bike makers, I feel absolutely no sympathy.
My Apple products work, and are compatible... which is why I bought Apple products... 'cause they work. My 1988 Mac SE still works, and my mother is using my iPhone 4... just fine. You have a bee in your bonnet about something that doesn't make sense.
Uhhh…not so much. Let’s look at things like the UDH. The industry is working on making things more compatible. Ever try a SRAM AXS derailleur with a Shimano XTR or XT cassette with a Shimano chain? If not you should…it works like a dream. Also most companies tried desperately to keep prices in line but due to the crazy jump in overseas shipping the price had to go up or you wouldn’t have a bike company to buy a bike from.
@@ccar1332 I wasn't referring to the quality of Apple products, rather the company's strategy of non-compatibility even within their own product lines. For example, when you get a new Apple phone, you can't use your old chargers, you have to get new ones every time. Bike makers are doing the same thing now, even for things that should be standards, like chains and bottom brackets. It's infuriating.
@@thatrandombikeguy Well it's a derailleur, it's gonna work with any company's chain and cassettes, so as long as the cassette company makes the cassette (and chain) with similar tech, I.E. Sunrace with Shimano.
I started a side gig of rebuilding and flipping 80s-90s mountain bikes during the shortage of bike shop bikes and renewed interest in vintage bikes. Definitely saw the interest slow late 2021 but I still build bikes but don’t go baller on the new parts and try to reuse as much of the original parts as possible.
Same, interest didn't slow till mid 2022 only because everyone started firesale-ing their entire garage and flooding the market with 2nd hand yet risen twice bikes for dirt cheap
Right on! I even got my hands on bikes all the way down from the 50s, mostly dumpster findings, restored them up and getting them back on the road again, it's honestly one of the most thrilling things i ever did, i toured across Norway on a 1970s 5 speed touring that was laying in a container at the recycling facility, it's now my commuter bike and adventure bike, i couldn't care less for anything of today, i also enjoy 90s tech / MTBs, so much bike to be had for close to nothing, people are literally tossing them out for a few bucks because they're not fancy enough in their eyes...
I would also suggest one other aspect: re-sale market To the point in the video, many people went out and bought bikes during the pandemic - including a number of high-end bikes and e-bikes. Now that things are trending back to the norm, those bikes are collecting dust. I think there will be a flood of “virtually new”, “rarely ridden”, “ridden lightly” bikes that come into the 2nd hand market. Keep your eye on Craigslist, PinkBike, and Pro’s Closet. Supply and demand will drive the prices down.
I pretty much agree with the supply chain whiplash causing an overstock now. Also I think the industry over obsessed with the high end SKUs that are ridiculously priced, fragile and irrelevant to where the growth opportunities in the market are. E-bikes are looking pretty good I think
I'm looking forward to the mini-crash! There was no way the mad rush was sustainable for too long. Meanwhile I'll be supporting my favorite local bike shop...
This December felt like a light switch was flipped off but in reality the shop has done the same as 2019. We had just gotten so used to 2020 and 2021 that a normal or ok month isn’t the same.
Been riding MTBs for 30 years. Never seen price increases like past 3 years. What I ride now would easily go for 7000 USD if bought today. Luckily I got my new frame and parts just before all this hit and paid just over half of what it would cost now. If I see a good deal this year ill start process of upgrading again.
You are absolutely right on that. Whether a company needs to or not- typically their products will rise in cost and they will look back on these days and smile. That’s why you don’t even tempt inflation because even the predominate thought or fear is self fulfilling. Just to weigh in on bike values, I picked up Yamaha’s full suspension electric mountain bike for $4500 and couldn’t be happier. Best value I could find from a reputable company and with a three year warranty.
I ride a 44-year old Holdsworth 'mountain bike', as adapted by me for long-distance touring. Cosy £25 when I bought it over twenty years ago. I also have a Raleigh Clubman for lighter touring, which cost £150 in 2005. Decent tyres (Schwalbe Marathons) stop punctures, new brake blocks when needed, and a decent drive chain every three years - doubt I've spent £1000 on both bikes over the last twenty years, for over 200,000 kilometres. I carry decent loads - have to, camping out at nights - and spending up to two months at a time on the road. Slowly clearing out my other bikes, because the above two refuse to stop working - and now that I'm 76 years old doubt I'll be buying anything else. Electric bikes? - won't keep you fit, and 95% of them never do more than 10km in a day before retuning to the shed for six months. I need to squeeze in two more E to E next year to break the age record (got 23, need 25) and then off to France for six months to guarantee some sunshine - got my Visa already - so looking forward to all the voie vertes and offroad, traffic free, riding. Go search for af3v.com (there is an English transltion on the site) and enjoy your Boxing Day. Happy Days.
then- with covid lots of folks I know got back into biking but found out it wasn't all quite as practical and fun as they remembered . now - they didnt give up and surprised me how most tried and really enjoyed the ebike experience and are now in search of an affordable ebike... maybe there's some real and lasting bike tech opportunity/future/market there ?!
I think brands will have to get smarter or more selective with the marketing spend (depending on which way you look at it). With no inventory it actually didn't make sense for brands to spend a lot on marketing products they didn't have to sell during the pandemic
I think it was very smart for brands to go the full carbon fiber route with everything since that material is such unreliable trash it will at least keep customers coming back for more
So the marketing plan was to keep loyal customers in the dark. That is PRECISELY the role of marketing, to keep the brand alive, especially in lean times. There was a myriad of ways the marketing departments should have engaged customers.
@@mrpoxycat3967 bruh steel frames can last a life time and then some wtf are you talking about? Carbon fatigues after only like five years and if you crash once it's toast and is sketchy to ride. Plus if you build up a proper steel frame not only is it practically a work of art, but it's almost as light as a carbon build with disc brakes.
Our local bike shop just closed. He was doing OK, we're at the end of major rail-trail, but his lease renegotiation coincided with the new forecast, and he decided to just cash out. He was a nice guy, but it was probably the right call.
At least where I live we have more than one local bike shop. In fact there's about 6 within walking distance. One closed recently but another is going in very soon.
@@philso7872one local shop was facing landlord problems and was forced to decamp from a high rent tourist district to a tucked away industrial space. At his age he wanted to dial back anyway so…
You forgot to mention that a lot of folks already got a bike so less likely to upgrade/buy a new one during a recession. But yea, good deals coming mid-2023 for sure.
As a bicycle enthusiast, I have invested time and money to build bikes on my own. This includes shopping bargain used deals and supplying my stock with decent parts even if I don't need them yet. This has now got me independent from the bike shops which can fuel my biking hobby. I have also build a network of bike junkies to supply current info and parts. Now, I am currently building a fanbase to fuel the inventory. I recommend this route to save time and money. This also means that I am supporting the used bike market. Therefore, shop for fairly new used bikes from the public and build it up from there. Where they paid fortunes, you pay half, and can still sell at your purchased price, if needed.
I've been out of mountain biking for a while. Do you have some recommendations for a all-around hardtail mountain bike? For a 5.8 135 lbs. I like the 27.5-in wheel. I don't like my bikes to be too bulky/big and hard to handle.
@@djstretchtone9851 I pretty much fit the profile of "Bike Fever" above. You didn't mention your budget, but here's a couple of recommendations. Unless you are a highh leve racer, stay away from carbon fiber in an MTB. The trend is towards 29ers, so you might find a better deal on 27.5 hardtail. Long and slack is the way to go with the geometry, a big confidence booster. Take a look at the Surly Karate Monkey for a nearly indestructible hardtail that has the added bonus of being capable of touring/bikepacking. It also meets all the criteria I listed above.
I'd love to support my LBS, but I'm having trouble doing so. They have all these super expensive service packages that are honestly, just ridiculous. With the mileage I ride, I'd be spending $400 a month according to them. Parts prices in Canada are insane, and tires are nearly unfathomably priced. Mountain bike tires are priced as much as car tires, and winter tires are more than car winter tires! I order tires from Europe at 25-50% of the price including all shipping, fees, etc. Sorry LBS, I can't pay $200/tire. Then there's the bike prices. Almost all makers have been jacking prices up by way more than inflation thinking that they have consumers by the balls and we'll pay whatever it takes for a new bike. They're in for a very, very rude awakening, and they deserve it.
@@maaduece5132 Ice Spikers are $180 each plus taxes here. Bought from Europe for $150/pair including shipping and taxes. Canadian bike tire prices are nuts.
My concern is that the wave of bike manufacturing companies buying LBS will close some stores based on margin calculations, whereas when the shops were family-owned, they would just weather the inventory challenge as they always did in the past.
Agreed. Irony is that profit of IBDs was 1-2% pre-COVID. Corporate goons entering the industry during boom will be shocked by return to this norm, and close these “underperforming” stores.
I rebuilt my bike during covid and now its like new,i've realised you dont have to buy a new bike every couple of years,i done one for my mate on his 2010 frame put a single up front changed the back ,new shocks and brakes,,it now has high spec tech and will last for years at half the price.
Can confirm, I work at a shop and we are struggling to keep afloat. A neighbor shop is closing at the end of the month and inventory is insanely high right now.
Not only are the prices out of touch for most, but many proprietary features make you a slave to the industry. I'm perfectly happy with external cable routing, 27.2 seatposts, alloy stems/bars, and non-aero alloy wheelsets. In 2012 I picked up extra Record-11 and Dura Ace 9000 groupsets and sat on them. Also picked up extra Campy Eurus and Dura Ace C25 wheelsets. This past year picked up NOS Fondriest XStatus, DeRosa Avant, and MIlano 3V framesets. These made for easy, fun builds, resulting in crisp shifting, while dual-pivot calipers do just fine in wet conditions. No rotor rubs, no difficult cable changes, no battery dependence. Just fun and worry-free riding.
Totally agree. I think bike technology has gone haywire. Electronic shifting, internal cabling, disc brakes, carbon everything - Do we really need all this? I'm happy riding my all-steel '93 Bridgestone RB-1 and '86 Schwinn Paramount. Try walking into your local bike shop and picking up an all-steel, road bike frame. It's carbon or aluminum, and carbon, I've heard, might be phasing out aluminum. Even titanium frames appear in short supply these days. The second-hand, used market should continue to thrive.
Smart move keep it simple, manage costs by buying at low prices (it’s all relative), know your customer and deliver what they want. It’s the only long term policy for survival. Foresight can ( in part) insulate you from boom / bust . It’s all about balance. Large brands seeking to secure economic control of riders through, usually, unwanted proprietary tech and fleecing them simultaneously won’t work long term. My club 500+ , 70 + in junior academy, VAST MAJORITY refuse to hand control of their cycling to rapacious self serving brands out there. Riders range from newbies to former TDF, Olympics, National Road Champions and Amateur World Champions. So a fair representation of the cycling world. Sympathy for LBS’s out there as invariably not in control of industry economics
If people take a look around, the prices they pay for a mid level carbon could be better spent on a customs steel bike or even titanium. The problem I see is that marketing has the consumers by the balls by having them think carbon bikes is the only "real" frame you should buy which isn't true for none racing buyers. Its all about marketing and not looking outside of big brands
That’s exactly what I’m looking at. I started about 8 years back with an ‘85 steel trek 600 Reynolds 531 tubing which I got from a garage sale for $15. Just need a good service and new tyres. Rode it around for a year or two then upgraded to brake/shifters from microShift and a new saddle - still a great bike. Then I started restoring brand name 90’s mtb’s and road bikes that I’d pick up at moving or estate sales - lots of older people dying or going into care here in Fl - again easy to restore and if components were needed they were cheap. Biggest costs were usually new tyres/tubes/seats mostly due to dry rot. Nowadays it’s just not worth it as no one is willing to pay even cost, let alone cover the costs of repainting/powder coating. The road bike went a few months back and having finally settled on a riding style I’m getting rid of everything and buying a Pipedream ALICE steel frame, building my own all purpose on/off road bike (I hate the term gravel) with a rigid fork and top quality new components and just having the one bike. My professional background as a materials scientist in aerospace/power generation and transportation/infrastructure over 30 years has made me very sceptical of anything metal/carbon coming out of china - the quality control on materials is atrocious. Cheap Chinese Crap would sum it up. I avoid carbon frames like the plague - there are just too many points on the frame where the 2-d nature of fibre reinforced laminates leads to fractures that one would just not see in a brazed or welded steel frame. Top of the back stays where they meet the seat posts - bottom bracket misalignment and poor tolerances are just examples along with poor wetout and internal voids. Even shimano have gone down hill with there cast hollow cranksets rather than drop forged aluminium all in the name of shaving a few 10’s of grams in weight.
Not a bargain but very competitive especially when it's a person across town or down the I5 wielding the torch. The big issue is wait time and willing to be flexible with parts.
@@escgoogle3865 most of the people that end up ordering from the small custom builders already have bikes to ride on while waiting. Parts they could just buy along the way as they wait.
Last month I picked up a new Marin commuting bike at 30% off from a small bike shop that was sadly closing down due to lack of labor. I kitted it out with all accessories at 50% off at the same store. Good deal for me but sad our city lost a really good bike shop.
I already got an Ibis Ripmo AF for 25% off a few months ago. But in reality I payed what that bike would have been worth a couple years ago. I just lucked out and got my first bike pre covid, and my second one post covid. I'll definitely be scouting deals on parts upgrades in '23.
I did the same. Its a simple bike that can be upgraded to run for quite a while. All the standards and geometry are "current" for now at least so it should be solid for a while
The SLX build at $3300 is a steal. I wouldn’t say you overpayed (even pre Covid). I did have to throw another 500 into it for a DHR rear tire, 210 1up dropper, and a coil shock (on sale from Ibis for $300) but for $3700 and built the way I like is awesome AF!
Lucked out and got mine with Deore and DVO early in the pandemic. Upgraded a few parts as I learned what I liked. Hoping to get years more out of it! Loving it for the local trails, bike park, and even the lazy bike path / rail trail rides.
The fact that the bicycle industry didn't lobby for ebike rebates nationally, didn't move to an ebike model where service and the industry changing to a DTC model. My bicycle shops here take about a week to a month to service my ebike. Not good when you use your ebike to commute. The bicycle industry didn't adapt to a changing world. Some bicycle shops are cavalier about not servicing ebikes not purchased from the store, which is stupid and doesn't create an inviting environment for new customers. Also the bicycle industry didn't lobby for more bicycle infrastructure for all bicycle riders. The industry is about factions, not everyone is a racer or MTB, you have leisure riders and commuters too.
It's expected that there is a surplus. What I'm noticing so far is that the prices are about 30% higher on bike brands I follow. Also, wear items such as tires and brake pads are getting about that much higher as well. I always buy used bikes so it doesn't effect me much but would like to buy a new one at some point.
I don't really think that for MTB it will be painful in that sector since if a person has already bought a bike, he will ride it and replace broken parts and etc. MTB is quite addiciting.
Totally correct. There will be a lot of discounts because new models are coming soon. And the fact that people have less cash or desire to buy an expensive rig or part will be a problem. Currently looks like most sram parts are deeply discounted which is good for those of us who wait.
Brands are not discounting, brands pricing keeps going up, shops on the other hand are dumping the overstock they ordered through covid, lesson here is if you want a deal you need to find a shop that has it in stock!!
One thing we're seeing is that a LOT of people bought entry level bikes or decent mid-range bikes but older tech. Those customers started coming in and saying "I really like this but this bike isn't meeting my needs as my skills/abilities progress." But there were no modern mid- or high-end bikes left at this point. Unfortunately, bike manufacturers didn't pay enough attention and only shipped low-end bikes, which nobody wanted any more. Shops are full of sub-$1.5K bikes but can't keep $4-6k bikes in stock. Further, the parts shortage led to a lot of people not having their bike for 3-4 months or more and many fell out of love with cycling or found other sports in that time. The other thing we saw is all those people who grossly overpaid the "Covid Price" for old, shitty bikes now have serious buyer's remorse - many bought a POS bike that needed hundred$$ in repairs. These people are rightfully bitter. And can we give a shoutout to Wahoo for releasing the V6 while warehouses are full of thousands of V5s. Seriously short-sighted.
This is a great video, effectively vocalising the crisis we're (us bike industry folk are dealing with). The trouble is real and as a small business owner, I can confirm the trouble is very real.
Prices on everything went up for me. My food costs almost doubled. Utilities, etc. My paycheck has not increased. What do you think I'm going to do? Even if there is a sale worth buying I'm not spending. I have two bikes and I have all the parts I will need for the next several years to maintain them. I won't even need to buy tires because I got like six new pairs. I have lots of clothing too. Seriously, I don't need to buy anything cycling related for years to come. So that being said I think it's going to be cool to sit back and watch as companies fail.
Plan on shopping for a road bike in march or April. Looking in the $4k area. Most corporate sites still seem to show low inventories but that might be the 2022 models. I guess I will find out in a couple months.
I had a feeling something weird might happen in 2023 for many products, so i bought an Electric bike ( cuz i'm old, with bad knees) because of Black Friday sale, and i thought maybe there may be a shortage next year ?
Current situation in Germany seems very different (or possibly just lagging behind a lot) prices for bikes and especially e-bikes are still on the rise, the demand still seems very high and the stores don't have a lot in stock. I personally would think that this has created a bursting bubble- but the local shops certainly don't think so.
Yes, this seems to be once again a U.S. issue where greed is a much bigger problem. Rules and regulations in Europe keep us Europeans safe and manufacturers in check. Cheers from the Netherlands.
@@kelvinmulder your regulations mean you pay 8 thousand euro for a 250w ebike SHUT THE ABSOLUTE FUKKKKK UUP, I gave a many thousand watt ebike for uner 1000 USA GOD BLESS THE USA
The problem with the bicycle industry is that they're not marketing bikes for transportation nearly enough. Instead they are marketing them as sport articles for certain niches like road, mountain and gravel biking. The trend is going toward people riding their bikes for commuting and even travel. Many of us are still relying on 30 year old bikes that were far more suitable and durable for those things. Today commuters are more likely to buy electric bikes than regular bikes and it's not because they need motors. It's because the bike industry has missed a trend where cities are finally building more and better bike lanes. Go into any local bike shop and ask for a bike for commuting and they will either sell you crap, or ask you if you'r like a hybrid or a gravel bike. Neither of those are as good for commuting than a simple early 1980's chromoly frame bike with racks and fenders already included. WTF??
I work at a local shop in my city. Business since beginning of the year/end of last year has slowed substantially. And we have alot of inventory, especially bikes, that we can't move unless we discount at an insane rate. We also have less and less people coming in looking for bikes and people just aren't spending like they used to. It's hard to experience.
@@superstar5123 no. I should've said "sad to experience" or something alike. It's unfortunate the way the industry is going right now but that's not to say it could change and it does change all the time for many other industries
Look I work for a bike shop and the things we’re most concerned about are getting our higher end customer back. Bikes over $1000 just don’t sell as well as they used to due to increase in competition and market conditions. Typical mom and dad recreational bikes still sell well and probably will continue to.
Inflation has effected basic survival costs. Some places worse than others. There will be less interest in luxury mountain bikes. The prices will go down, but they will always be expensive. Time will tell...It's only January and most popular riding areas are covered in snow.
Yes, it’s not rocket surgery, but apparently it is to many. Just look at all the idiots complaining about car prices, as if dealerships are determining the insane prices instead of the consumers buying them.
I think we'll see sales and excess inventory at to lower end to mid market, but the demand is still there for high end bikes over the $5K mark. People who are in the market for expensive bikes have money and are largely insulated from the affects of recession and inflation. Still, I think the pricing increases will stop even at the high end. So many brands that took the opportunity during Covid to jack up prices, I think that ends now. I think it will be a great time to buy barely used high end Covid-era bikes from people like The Pro's Closet. Still, I think the biggest trend is going to be new competition in the industry. With the absurd pricing and general lack of innovation these days, I think the market is ripe for new entrants. Direct sales from brands like Canyon, Commencal and YT are already completely accepted. More interestingly, I am seeing more and more wheels and frames from Chinese brands like Winspace, Elves and Farsports show up on local rides. These brands have become viable, easy and trust-worthy options and are just going to continue to get better in '23 and '24. Even Chinese components are on the verge of breaking through. That's what is ultimately going to drive down prices: competition.
True I was think about buying a canyon arroad because it’s cheaper, but then I was offered a mechanic job at a local shop so I ended up buying a trek Emonda sl 7 just because it doesn’t look good for me as an employee to be riding a canyon when working at a trek dealer. If I wasn’t working in the industry I definitely would have gone with Canyon, and everyone is buy Canyon because most of the race road bikes are out of stock. Can’t say on the other bikes because I was only looking at race road bikes
Agree totally with you! I have bought two wheel sets from Lightbicycle. They are custome built. I got to choose the hub and spokes from various brands. Only the rims were made in China. The wheelset was crazy light and half the price of traditional brands. I also hate that Shimano and Sram no longer offer high end mech groupsets. I have e shifting on my road bike and will most likely upgrade my gravel bike to sram etap, but I have a trainer bike that I would like to use as a spare bike and want to upgrade the mech brakes to hydraulic and it is really hard to find inexpensive upgrade parts.
The Pro's Closet is a joke. They are raping people in charging almost retail for high end stuff. So this tells me that inventory is still zero for the nice stuff. I've been in the market for a new $8k - $10k roadbike. Local bike shops have nothing.
The reason the Chinese stuff is cheaper is you're buying direct from a manufacturer. The conventional model is: the brand buys from a manufacturer (or sometimes is the manufacturer) sells to a distributor (or sometimes distribute themselves) and the distributor sells to the bike shop. This means lots of people have to make a slice along the way. The retail price can't be that high because customers wouldn't pay it and so everybody in the chain (manufacturer, brand, distributor, shop) gets a thin slice of margin. The benefit to this model though is that the brand checks the quality and compliance of the manufacturer and provides a warranty, the distributor vets who they sell to and keeps the product in stock year round, the customer then buys from a vetted shop who can help fit the product and can provide after-sales support. If you buy direct from a Chinese manufacturer you might get a similar part, but who has done the quality and compliance? Who keeps it in stock, who fits it and who do you bring it back to with an issue? If you're okay to forego all of that for a better price you can, but I think the majority of people don't want to buy direct from China. If your product snaps and you have serious injuries you won't have much luck trying to take a Chinese factory to court in Europe or the US. The product *should* be fine, but the existing models exist for a reason. It's a risk buying direct from a factory.
I mean, if a hard tail wasn't 1500 dollars for a good one that won't fall apart on the trials, then I'd be getting a new one every couple of years, but I can't justify spending the amount of a goddamn dirt bike on a bicycle anymore. At that point, I'd rather have the dirt bike.
Yeah, with manufaturers trying to sell $8,000 bikes with 105 groupsets, it is going to be a tough year. I am looking for a new bike but not in the market with that scenario.
I learned my lesson on waiting forever for a release date that never came. I went with a custom built bike frame from an independent and because of that,. I will never go back to the big manufactured bikes again. The benefits are Huge!
My Trek and Cannondale from the 1980s do everything that I need a bike to do. As long as I can get parts I see no need to drop several thousand dollars to replace those bikes.
I predict a very bad drop off in MTB demand. I like to compare the similarities of the MTB fad to the Windsurfing fad I was part of. At first it seemed like it was everyone's favourite pastime and sales volumes rocketed. Product technology advanced and kept people in an upgrade cycle and drawing more people in. Prices also started rising and bore no relation to manufacturing cost increases. The market got saturated and people started discovering that windsurfing was not that easy to learn to do very well without commitment and resilience. Suddenly the number of people partaking in the sport fell due to a combination of some or all of high prices, lack of interest, lack of commitment to learn and continue with the sport, moving on to the next great thing etc. Huge numbers of second hand gear hit the market and it was visible that there were less participants out in the water. This took place over a number of decades and well before kite surfing developed and became popular. I predict a very similar product lifecycle in the MTB market. A lot of people joined the MTB fraternity in the recent pre-Covid era, and even more during COVID. Many people are discovering that riding requires good fitness, a lot of commitment to learn to do well, a high level of risk and pain tolerance, and a lot of money to maintain and keep equipment current. Along with very high price vs utility value, a lot of consumers are now realising that they have lost interest in the sport and have very expensive idle equipment lying around. A lot of this idle equipment will be resold in to the second hand market. This, along with the additional new supply coming on line as manufacturers overcome the logistical and manufacturing log jams, as well as misreading the consumer demand and high prices, will lead to a very large drop in sales of new equipment and a consolidation in various parts of the industry.
There are some similarities between WS and MTB but other than the high equipment price issue I think the latter is not going to face the same fate as the former. MTB is not as weather dependent as WS, it's much easier to get into, and skills wise you can very soon become a competent intermediate. Fitness can be a challenge at first but even this is less of a problem with the introduction of e-bikes. MTB beginners can easily have access to friendly equipment (bike geo is safer than ever). Windsurfing in the late 90's and early '00s focused on high performance and completely forgot about developing beginner friendly gear. Newcomers to the sport would yry to learn on massively undersized boards and demanding race sails and were thus put off before getting to enjoy the sport.
It's frustrating how so many don't do their due diligence before investing time and money into their new "hobby". I imagine wing foiling will suffer the same fate when people realize it's very hard to learn even at the most basic level. Kitesurfing is definitely in it's drawdown period but in my area there are still lots of people partaking when the conditions are right. Your take on MTB is interesting. It's always had it's up and down periods but I think there will always be people who just want to ride a bike off road so it will survive.
You may be correct, but within limits. The big advantage mountain bikes, and bikes in general, enjoy is their utilitarian aspect. You can't wind surf to work. Or go shopping by windsurfer. The bicycle has always offered transportation in addition to exercise, adventure, shredding, racing, climbing, descending and all the other fun stuff! So I can go pick up some stuff at the store and take an enjoyable ride over to the lake or park. This is what will hopefully always make the bicycle - in whatever current form or craze - popular and enduring.
Just to clarify, I'm not suggesting that the market for Bicycles in general will ever not be popular or decline as dramatically as windsurfers did. I'm postulating that the market for Mountain Bikes specifically is quite saturated at the moment and that sales will decline from their Covid highs for all or some of the reasons that I raised in the windsurfing analogy. I don't believe that MTB will die off completely. Other bicycle market segments,such as road bikes, have a fairly steady or even growing market in the case of ebikes.
@@marcelknop1 MTB has (at least in terms of the sport actually being called mountain biking) has been around since the mid 80s. In all that time, it's gone through a few boom and bust cycles (pun in intended). If it drastically declines in 2023, it will pick back up in the future. And then go bust again. As I mentioned before, there will always be people who want to ride off road. And the great thing about MTB is it can be as mellow/sedate or as hardcore as you want it to be. Interestingly, windsurfing as seen somewhat if a resurgence in my area.
I'm not a fan of E-bikes, but maybe that part of the industry will help keep things afloat. Anyone I've talked to who rides an E-bike seems to be in love with their purchase. In other words, riding the E-bike may keep their interest in riding. A monthly/weekend warrior doesn't have to dread long uphills and thus may keep riding because it's easier to go further and explore.
@Dane Murphree I've changed my veiw on E-bikes.. As a standard cycle rider I used to think they were 'cheating', but i now meet so many 'older' people, or people that have had injuries, getting out & about on E-bikes, keeping themselves fit, mentally active & getting fresh air, it brings real joy to my heart. Also, if or when I'm unable to pedal under my own steam, i now know there are still options to continue what i love. 👍
I was a ebike hater. Then I ended up being the few in the group who didn’t have one thus 2/3 through the ride knackered as not riding loops just up & down all day. Now I ride all day & at the end of the day still feeling fresh. Only downside to them is the price !!!! Anything with half decent components is way over 8 grand! They really are taking the piss out of us
My personal experience supports the other comments made here. I'm a 50+ years "on the saddle" cyclist and used to look at ebikes as cheating. But in the same way you can have light and heavy days in the gym, you can get a good workout on an ebike. If I want a harder workout, I "shift" frequently between power assist levels so I only use the juice when I need it. If you use the power smartly, you can get the same caloric burn rate on either a traditional or e bike. The traditional bike is still my bike of choice for longer rides (50+ miles) due to range concerns. But at age 68, most of my rides are in the 20-40 range nowadays. My e bike is my preferred choice nowadays - it sure is nice on longer and steeper hills or with headwinds above 15 mph. And there is a certain joy in passing my 25 year old look alike on steep hills LOL!!!
@@michaelhassett1329 Hahaha! Brilliant story! 👍 You're a fantastic inspiration as I'm 'only' 62, and hopefully have many decades left in my legs. As to your experience about passing younger guys going uphill, it reminds me of the 1st time i was overtaken by what looked like an 80 year old granny... I was gobsmacked, as i was setting a good pace. It took me a few minutes to figure out it was an E-bike as it was silent & the rear cassestte was so slim. I confess that initially I was a bit annoyed with myself, but when i returned home & reflected, I had a good laugh at myself & began to see the true value of E-bikes. Keep up the sterling work! 👍💪
From a guy who has spent more money on bikes than vehicles in the last ten years, the hole is the value of a used bike. I dropped big dollars on bikes that are instantly worth less when I walk out the door. I strongly suggested to local shops and called manufacturers suggesting that warranty needs to be transferable. If I purchase a new car and sell it the existing warranty is transferred.
When a new top end bike is dearer than a large capacity motorcycle you know the industry has been taking the piss!. There is not a single Chinese made frame that costs over 500 dollars or pounds to manufacture so where do these ridiculous prices come from it's just greed. I think in the present climate people will just purchase cheaper new bikes or buy on the second hand market. Hopefully manufacturers will concentrate more on the lower/ middle end of the market because I sure as he'll don't know any of my friends who plan to spend £10.000 on a new bike anytime soon!!.
I know lots of people that like cycling but I know not one that will spend more than $3000 for a bicycle. And even that would price point would be asking a lot. I think it's good interest rates are going up, now maybe everything will start to level out and be as it should be.
The advancements in Geo and tech have grown stagnant. This upcoming season will be my third on my Santa Cruz and I’m not missing out on anything new other than outrageous costs !!!! They got what they deserved.
@@halfgeek1394 Agreed. I’m hanging on to my V1 Megatower. It’s 47.5 HTA , super agile and pedals great. New one is too long and too slack for my trails.
Price is 100% the problem. In the 90's a good bike was $350-800 GT, Trek, Specialized etc and a $2,000 bike I thought was like a Lance Armstrong level. Today I'm in a Facebook mountain bike group, daily I see posts asking what's a good starter bike and I'm shocked to see people saying a good starter bike is around $2,500 and anything cheaper is junk! Hell, I felt good with my wife and my $98 Huffy Rock Creek bikes and thought my Giant road bike and Hyper Spinfit 700c were "expensive" but looks like I'm out of touch with the market 😩. The bike shop I took my $98 Huffy into for a derailer repair laughed, said the repair would cost more than I paid for the bike and recommended I buy a $2,000 "entry level" bike. Repaired it myself. Personally I can't imagine paying more than a couple hundred for a bike, not to mention financing one 🤷♂️.
"a good starter bike is around $2,500 and anything cheaper is junk" "recommended I buy a $2,000 "entry level" bike" These 2 sentences pretty much tells us all we need to know about how screwed up the people engaged in this 'Sports' are. I am still using a "basic" steel geared cycle that I purchased in 2010 (with some parts replaced with better ones)....and i routinely do around 50+ miles every other day.....no issue. The ONLY people who zoom past me are the ones on road bikes....and an occasional fit person on a hybrid. A vast number of people DO NOT need these crazy expensive cycles but like a brainless moron end up spending on them....mostly to scratch that 'expensive cycle owner' itch.
Ive always thought around 3600 was the magic mark for a good bike. I think even a newb deserves basic Ultegra level, and for MTB something better than 105 (XT). I note what used to cost that costs well over mid 5s now. Luckily when I was in the need of a new road machine earlier in the year I had a bike shop sell me an Argon18 KRypton GF--a bike stickered at 4700-- for 3599.00. Rides as good as the Orbea Orca I paid 3600 for 10+ years ago.
Some good points here. Definitely food for thought. I almost wonder if it’s easier for small biker owned companies to weather this type of environment. The reason I say this, some small companies can pause production for quarters or longer. Large companies have to continue to grind to maintain their overhead.
It's two completely different markets/manufacturing cost/volume. I get where people can get to that comparison but they are completely different (I sell into the MX/ATV industry).
. They both have forks both have rear suspension both have two wheels and a frame your honestly saying that the mx companies get al there raw materials so cheap that they can r and d a whole engine build it and make a profit off it at the cost mtb companies can only build a bike.
Yeah a motor cost $20+ million to develop...ain't no bicycle cost that much to develop. The reality is that the bicycle industry knows that people are willing to pay outrageous prices where the moto industry not so much. This is true for most purely recreation industries. Motocycles aren't purely recreational....it mostly is in the US but in other countries it is transportation. So there is the difference between a commodity vs a luxury good. And that is what modern high tech bicycles are luxury products with the associated prices.
Good, the utter greed of the industry of the last 2-3 years had to end. I have absolutely zero sympathy for any company that gets a hammering, possibly with the exception of the small brands who couldnt get any stock. Some brands who got way ahead of themselves and started charging ridiculous prices - yes Specialized, Santa Cruz et al Im looking at you - are in for a huge smack in the face.
Don't forget Colnago. Ernesto saw what was coming and sold the brand. Now the investors are trying marketing BS to justify way higher prices. Colnago never really used a lot of marketing in the past, the name sold the bikes, but now the bikes are no different than Specailized or some others but the asking price is thousands more. That's a company that needs a swift kick.
I am in the market for a relatively high end bike, or just the frame, and it is impossible to find. I am not personally seeing a buyer’s market out there yet.
I think you got it spot on, and with decent quality components now becoming more readily available from China I see a turbulent year ahead for the market. It's needed a shake up for a while so it's an I'll wind etc.....
The Bicycle industry will survive because as soon as the fuel ⛽️ prices rise much higher soon bikes will sell again. Car prices will rise higher, new and used. Bicycles 🚲 are a must needed vehicle. Europe is a great example. I have great faith in the industry. Thanks for your video.
Good thing in our country, there's a huge surplus of cheaper alternatives for built bikes and parts good enough for both recreational and commute. Brands like Trek, Merida, Cannondale, Marin, Specialized, S-Works, and Colnago are just luxury.
good wee vid. We are seeing more demand for service, and especially from eBikes and cargo bikes. appetite to upgrade when when parts wear out has gone. Going a spec level down on tyres is common, mostly out of principle. Generally just a lot of shock at how expensive everything got. Luckily for us all the big internet dealers are rapidly liquidating stock cheaper than trade prices, so we just buy the parts we need from them instead of the usual wholesale suppliers. Crazy times.
I'm in my mid-40s and play in the BMX market. The vintage stuff is starting to come down, because nobody was pulling the trigger on a tattered $5K Pro Freestyle Tour frame & fork. I just started buying parts all over the internet within the last month. The prices aren't great across the board yet, but the sales are impressive when they happen.
I can’t say I agree. The local market where I live is saturated with dogmas, specialised, cervelos, BMCs etc. and those folks usually tend to own multiple bikes because, it’s just fun having multiple bikes. even now, the local shops still cannot keep up with the demand. cheap sub 3k bikes are available for immediate delivery in their inventory, while the above brands bikes in the range of 6k and above are all still on back order.
Crazy just had this conversation with are local bike shop. I bought 3 bikes for Christmas for my family we are into BMX thousand dollar bikes for 1/2 the price! Had to call the company to see if that was the correct price and if they were in stock. They said yes and that they were overstocked! Had the local bike shop put them together so my family wouldn’t see them. The owner said he couldn’t touch those prices. He said what keeps him going are repairs,tune up’s and assembly of new bikes that are being purchased off the internet.
There also will be a big surplus of used bikes, as there were many that tried something they could do during Covid, but now realize biking was not for them.
Bikesonline got me into the Polygon D7 for $1800 and it was a steal....on sale now for $1200 and an outrageous deal! 2500 hard miles and no problems means you can get an ''Ordinary'' bike with Spec like the ''Known'' brands for less. 80% of Riders don't need a truly capable race level bike but they exist for those who DO!
This video caught my attention since I was just browsing carbon wheels and noticed several stores selling them at discount prices, which surprised me, since last time I looked (a few months ago) most places had no stock and prices were sky high here in UK. Now though I guess people will think twice before splashing out on such “luxury” items with cost of living crisis. I know I am.
Big winner in all this has to be Zwift. I Zwift w all my bubbies now in winter and we all still ride in summer outside. So having that newest bike isn’t as shiny as training well.
Will you see early release dates for new models? and also wondering if sales will start sooner in the year as well, currently waiting for the Specialized Epic Hardtail Expert!
I'm optimistic clearance sites like Nashbar (not them specifically as I know they're bought and done) will come back. They used to be my go to for bike stuff, and it's been tough to bike on a budget without them.
What’s crazy is: this same thing happened in the tech industry- began to sell off January 2022, and the real estate market, started to dive March 2022 after tech money stopped. Now they are feverishly trying to reduce new home inventory while individual sellers don’t seem to realize prices of selling homes have dropped tremendously… Who didn’t see the pandemic boom ending? Evidently a Lot of companies who should know better.
I remember the days when a motorcycle cost more than a push bike. Now its the other way round. Too many shops and not enough customers, something has got to give.
Former road bike racer here: the cost of a few carbon fiber tubes joined together to make a bicycle frame, is as expensive as some motorcycles from the big four manufacturers, and that is absolutely absurd. One should be able to buy a brand new carbon fiber Trek, Specialized, with full 11spd Ultegra for about $3600 instead of $5900.
I work in a shop. The consensus is "we are fu*ked". Right now, buy parts. No one can buy new bikes so people will resort to fixing/upgrading. And with the surplus, Our shop is buying parts because we foresee a massive increase in bike maintenance and rebuilds.
There is also something akin to the substitution effect; buyers swapping to alternative product, e.g. electric scooters. Some bike shops even offer this type of product. This is popular in the SEQld market with commuters; easy to pack and park under the desk.
Income effect is always greater than the substitution effect for normal goods, so I wouldn’t expect this to be a huge problem but for the fact that real incomes are declining.
This industry needs this. The prices are outrageous
When mountain bikes are more expensive than new motocross bikes... yes there's something wrong.
@@dank3823 exactly this. I can't even when I can get a CRF250R for less.
Kilo for kilo a nice mtb is more than a Ferrari
Agreed. Crazy asking prices for even entry and mid-range bikes now.
Agreed. I ride bmx so not as expensive as others, but I spent over 2 grand building up my custom bike, and I believe that is utterly ridiculous considering there's electric bikes and dirt bikes in that price range
The bike industry took the piss during covid and raised prices to ridiculously high levels. I like lots of other people started to look at cheaper alternatives from suppliers that I probably wouldn't have given too much consideration before and found thay they were actually very good, and as a result will probably not be going back to the big brands any time soon.
Oh yes when there were Bikes avalible then Most the High Spec ones for More Than 10k € or $. Becouse Parts were Rare and the Margin was higher on those Bikes.
So, no more Shimano or Campy for you?
I have friends that are doctors, lawyers and bankers saying $3,000 is too much to spend on a starter bike.... and people in the industry thought a 10k bike on sale to 8k is a steal. No room for anyone to enter the elite sport
Going into a bike shop thinking I was going to buy a bike one day and they were like literally $3,000 low end which was just mind boggling
I'm one of them well off people that went to buy a bike to get outdoors with. Bike shops turned stupid. No way I'd buy a $10k MTB to ride "trails" in FLORIDA! SO, I took a chance on the Schwinn Axum (Wal Mart ordered). $400 bike that has done everything I needed and wanted it to do. I haven't even upgraded anything. How does a bike shop justify $10k MTBs for florida trails? Then look down their noses at you when you don't buy stupid expensive bikes. When this Axum tears up, I'll buy another one. Do you realize how many Schwinns I can go thru for $10k? 25! That's how many....25!
The bike industry mostly brought this upon themselves: they pushed products no one wanted, or that are inferior to previous ones (eg., hookless rims, aero road bikes that weigh 10.5kg). They raised prices to an extent that can partly be explained by manufacturing and supply chain issues, but can mostly be explained by greed. They decided to follow Apple's example and make compatibility between components an impossibility. In general, the industry have treated their customers with open contempt, and, aside from local bike shops and small specialty bike makers, I feel absolutely no sympathy.
The Apple example? Umm no….
My Apple products work, and are compatible... which is why I bought Apple products... 'cause they work. My 1988 Mac SE still works, and my mother is using my iPhone 4... just fine. You have a bee in your bonnet about something that doesn't make sense.
Uhhh…not so much. Let’s look at things like the UDH. The industry is working on making things more compatible. Ever try a SRAM AXS derailleur with a Shimano XTR or XT cassette with a Shimano chain? If not you should…it works like a dream. Also most companies tried desperately to keep prices in line but due to the crazy jump in overseas shipping the price had to go up or you wouldn’t have a bike company to buy a bike from.
@@ccar1332 I wasn't referring to the quality of Apple products, rather the company's strategy of non-compatibility even within their own product lines. For example, when you get a new Apple phone, you can't use your old chargers, you have to get new ones every time. Bike makers are doing the same thing now, even for things that should be standards, like chains and bottom brackets. It's infuriating.
@@thatrandombikeguy Well it's a derailleur, it's gonna work with any company's chain and cassettes, so as long as the cassette company makes the cassette (and chain) with similar tech, I.E. Sunrace with Shimano.
I started a side gig of rebuilding and flipping 80s-90s mountain bikes during the shortage of bike shop bikes and renewed interest in vintage bikes. Definitely saw the interest slow late 2021 but I still build bikes but don’t go baller on the new parts and try to reuse as much of the original parts as possible.
Same, interest didn't slow till mid 2022 only because everyone started firesale-ing their entire garage and flooding the market with 2nd hand yet risen twice bikes for dirt cheap
Ya interested in an Intense Tracer all chris King, or Intense Socalm, DH also King hubs.? I am trying to get 29ers.
Bingo!
Right on! I even got my hands on bikes all the way down from the 50s, mostly dumpster findings, restored them up and getting them back on the road again, it's honestly one of the most thrilling things i ever did, i toured across Norway on a 1970s 5 speed touring that was laying in a container at the recycling facility, it's now my commuter bike and adventure bike, i couldn't care less for anything of today, i also enjoy 90s tech / MTBs, so much bike to be had for close to nothing, people are literally tossing them out for a few bucks because they're not fancy enough in their eyes...
I would also suggest one other aspect: re-sale market
To the point in the video, many people went out and bought bikes during the pandemic - including a number of high-end bikes and e-bikes. Now that things are trending back to the norm, those bikes are collecting dust. I think there will be a flood of “virtually new”, “rarely ridden”, “ridden lightly” bikes that come into the 2nd hand market. Keep your eye on Craigslist, PinkBike, and Pro’s Closet. Supply and demand will drive the prices down.
THIS! ⬆
Good point!
IMHO....this is now happening. Lots of '20 and '21 bikes lightly used for sale.
I see used Ibis and Yeti asking more than the new 25% off bikes
You’re right about it. It’s happening in Singapore.
I pretty much agree with the supply chain whiplash causing an overstock now. Also I think the industry over obsessed with the high end SKUs that are ridiculously priced, fragile and irrelevant to where the growth opportunities in the market are. E-bikes are looking pretty good I think
I know so many people going to emtb’s myself
Feel sorry for the small shops but the pure greed of the bike industry might be their shortfall 12k for a pushbike says it all
12k reminds me of thee egyptian cotton that thee emperors new clothes were made from
Best you don't check out how much you can pay for a watch...
@@br5380 lol, those wristwatches won't cut your arm off like say an sl7 fork recall
@@janeblogs324 yeah but thee ever grown army of watch thiefs will
Yip I can buy full modern motorbike for 12k .. don’t make sense 🤷
I keep on seeing videos like this and yet prices have still not fallen even a little bit here in NJ. 🤷♂
I'm looking forward to the mini-crash! There was no way the mad rush was sustainable for too long. Meanwhile I'll be supporting my favorite local bike shop...
As one should......even if the LBS is a bit expensive, the person is REAL and will be there when you need him.
I’ve got some bad news for you. . . .
This December felt like a light switch was flipped off but in reality the shop has done the same as 2019. We had just gotten so used to 2020 and 2021 that a normal or ok month isn’t the same.
Been riding MTBs for 30 years. Never seen price increases like past 3 years. What I ride now would easily go for 7000 USD if bought today. Luckily I got my new frame and parts just before all this hit and paid just over half of what it would cost now. If I see a good deal this year ill start process of upgrading again.
all russias fault so ive heard lol
2011 duraace cf bikes $8k, 2016 $5k, 2020 $15k.
Ride the waves, expect market dips.
Best user name I've seen in a good long while. Well done, Usul.
Printing a few trillion $ defiantly contributed to the cost of everything going up. Deficit spending is directly correlated to inflation.
You are absolutely right on that. Whether a company needs to or not- typically their products will rise in cost and they will look back on these days and smile. That’s why you don’t even tempt inflation because even the predominate thought or fear is self fulfilling. Just to weigh in on bike values, I picked up Yamaha’s full suspension electric mountain bike for $4500 and couldn’t be happier. Best value I could find from a reputable company and with a three year warranty.
I ride a 44-year old Holdsworth 'mountain bike', as adapted by me for long-distance touring. Cosy £25 when I bought it over twenty years ago. I also have a Raleigh Clubman for lighter touring, which cost £150 in 2005. Decent tyres (Schwalbe Marathons) stop punctures, new brake blocks when needed, and a decent drive chain every three years - doubt I've spent £1000 on both bikes over the last twenty years, for over 200,000 kilometres. I carry decent loads - have to, camping out at nights - and spending up to two months at a time on the road. Slowly clearing out my other bikes, because the above two refuse to stop working - and now that I'm 76 years old doubt I'll be buying anything else. Electric bikes? - won't keep you fit, and 95% of them never do more than 10km in a day before retuning to the shed for six months. I need to squeeze in two more E to E next year to break the age record (got 23, need 25) and then off to France for six months to guarantee some sunshine - got my Visa already - so looking forward to all the voie vertes and offroad, traffic free, riding. Go search for af3v.com (there is an English transltion on the site) and enjoy your Boxing Day.
Happy Days.
Sounds like good news for consumers. Deals to be had! Try and support your local bike shops
Sounds like prices are not going to drop all that much.
Support our local bike shops that tried to take advantage of us when they could. NOPE!
Mmmmmmm arrogant unqualified posers charging to much for everything. Hahahaha
@@michaelpowell9164 well said Sir...eff the LBS that tried to gouge us, and are arrogant about it...buy direct
Stopped supporting my LBS and started shopping for what I could afford online.
then- with covid lots of folks I know got back into biking but found out it wasn't all quite as practical and fun as they remembered . now - they didnt give up and surprised me how most tried and really enjoyed the ebike experience and are now in search of an affordable ebike... maybe there's some real and lasting bike tech opportunity/future/market there ?!
I think brands will have to get smarter or more selective with the marketing spend (depending on which way you look at it). With no inventory it actually didn't make sense for brands to spend a lot on marketing products they didn't have to sell during the pandemic
I think it was very smart for brands to go the full carbon fiber route with everything since that material is such unreliable trash it will at least keep customers coming back for more
@@vintagesteel Steel and alu will fatigue way before carbon. Only argument for steel and alu is that it's classic.
Direct sales is going to be the move of 2023.
So the marketing plan was to keep loyal customers in the dark. That is PRECISELY the role of marketing, to keep the brand alive, especially in lean times. There was a myriad of ways the marketing departments should have engaged customers.
@@mrpoxycat3967 bruh steel frames can last a life time and then some wtf are you talking about? Carbon fatigues after only like five years and if you crash once it's toast and is sketchy to ride. Plus if you build up a proper steel frame not only is it practically a work of art, but it's almost as light as a carbon build with disc brakes.
Our local bike shop just closed. He was doing OK, we're at the end of major rail-trail, but his lease renegotiation coincided with the new forecast, and he decided to just cash out. He was a nice guy, but it was probably the right call.
My local bike shop also closed recently. Another local shop sold out to a big chain owned by a manufacturer.
At least where I live we have more than one local bike shop. In fact there's about 6 within walking distance. One closed recently but another is going in very soon.
Saw a local shop today with papered over windows and the signage indicated that they closed two days ago.
@@philso7872one local shop was facing landlord problems and was forced to decamp from a high rent tourist district to a tucked away industrial space. At his age he wanted to dial back anyway so…
You forgot to mention that a lot of folks already got a bike so less likely to upgrade/buy a new one during a recession. But yea, good deals coming mid-2023 for sure.
As a bicycle enthusiast, I have invested time and money to build bikes on my own. This includes shopping bargain used deals and supplying my stock with decent parts even if I don't need them yet. This has now got me independent from the bike shops which can fuel my biking hobby. I have also build a network of bike junkies to supply current info and parts. Now, I am currently building a fanbase to fuel the inventory. I recommend this route to save time and money. This also means that I am supporting the used bike market. Therefore, shop for fairly new used bikes from the public and build it up from there. Where they paid fortunes, you pay half, and can still sell at your purchased price, if needed.
I've been out of mountain biking for a while. Do you have some recommendations for a all-around hardtail mountain bike? For a 5.8 135 lbs. I like the 27.5-in wheel. I don't like my bikes to be too bulky/big and hard to handle.
@@djstretchtone9851 I pretty much fit the profile of "Bike Fever" above. You didn't mention your budget, but here's a couple of recommendations. Unless you are a highh leve racer, stay away from carbon fiber in an MTB. The trend is towards 29ers, so you might find a better deal on 27.5 hardtail. Long and slack is the way to go with the geometry, a big confidence booster. Take a look at the Surly Karate Monkey for a nearly indestructible hardtail that has the added bonus of being capable of touring/bikepacking. It also meets all the criteria I listed above.
I would swap out the stock aggressive tires on the Karate Monkey (KM) for a more all around tire like the Maxxis Ikon in a 2.2 to 2.35 inch width.
I'd love to support my LBS, but I'm having trouble doing so. They have all these super expensive service packages that are honestly, just ridiculous. With the mileage I ride, I'd be spending $400 a month according to them. Parts prices in Canada are insane, and tires are nearly unfathomably priced. Mountain bike tires are priced as much as car tires, and winter tires are more than car winter tires! I order tires from Europe at 25-50% of the price including all shipping, fees, etc. Sorry LBS, I can't pay $200/tire.
Then there's the bike prices. Almost all makers have been jacking prices up by way more than inflation thinking that they have consumers by the balls and we'll pay whatever it takes for a new bike. They're in for a very, very rude awakening, and they deserve it.
What tyres are costing you 200 cad a tyre ?
@@maaduece5132 Ice Spikers are $180 each plus taxes here. Bought from Europe for $150/pair including shipping and taxes. Canadian bike tire prices are nuts.
Canada needs a revolution. (so does the US). time to fire up the Guillotine.
Can't stop looking at your background, that bike frame is beautiful 👌
That’s my Wolfhound that was custom make for me years ago. It’s a work of art.
My concern is that the wave of bike manufacturing companies buying LBS will close some stores based on margin calculations, whereas when the shops were family-owned, they would just weather the inventory challenge as they always did in the past.
Agreed. Irony is that profit of IBDs was 1-2% pre-COVID. Corporate goons entering the industry during boom will be shocked by return to this norm, and close these “underperforming” stores.
I didn't realize this is happening. Is it?
I rebuilt my bike during covid and now its like new,i've realised you dont have to buy a new bike every couple of years,i done one for my mate on his 2010 frame put a single up front changed the back ,new shocks and brakes,,it now has high spec tech and will last for years at half the price.
Can confirm, I work at a shop and we are struggling to keep afloat. A neighbor shop is closing at the end of the month and inventory is insanely high right now.
Good info and spot on!
Not only are the prices out of touch for most, but many proprietary features make you a slave to the industry. I'm perfectly happy with external cable routing, 27.2 seatposts, alloy stems/bars, and non-aero alloy wheelsets. In 2012 I picked up extra Record-11 and Dura Ace 9000 groupsets and sat on them. Also picked up extra Campy Eurus and Dura Ace C25 wheelsets. This past year picked up NOS Fondriest XStatus, DeRosa Avant, and MIlano 3V framesets. These made for easy, fun builds, resulting in crisp shifting, while dual-pivot calipers do just fine in wet conditions. No rotor rubs, no difficult cable changes, no battery dependence. Just fun and worry-free riding.
Totally agree. I think bike technology has gone haywire. Electronic shifting, internal cabling, disc brakes, carbon everything - Do we really need all this? I'm happy riding my all-steel '93 Bridgestone RB-1 and '86 Schwinn Paramount. Try walking into your local bike shop and picking up an all-steel, road bike frame. It's carbon or aluminum, and carbon, I've heard, might be phasing out aluminum. Even titanium frames appear in short supply these days. The second-hand, used market should continue to thrive.
Smart move keep it simple, manage costs by buying at low prices (it’s all relative), know your customer and deliver what they want. It’s the only long term policy for survival. Foresight can ( in part) insulate you from boom / bust . It’s all about balance. Large brands seeking to secure economic control of riders through, usually, unwanted proprietary tech and fleecing them simultaneously won’t work long term. My club 500+ , 70 + in junior academy, VAST MAJORITY refuse to hand control of their cycling to rapacious self serving brands out there. Riders range from newbies to former TDF, Olympics, National Road Champions and Amateur World Champions. So a fair representation of the cycling world. Sympathy for LBS’s out there as invariably not in control of industry economics
At the prices charged for the superbikes, a custom steel frame with sensible parts looks like an absolute bargain.
If people take a look around, the prices they pay for a mid level carbon could be better spent on a customs steel bike or even titanium. The problem I see is that marketing has the consumers by the balls by having them think carbon bikes is the only "real" frame you should buy which isn't true for none racing buyers.
Its all about marketing and not looking outside of big brands
That’s exactly what I’m looking at. I started about 8 years back with an ‘85 steel trek 600 Reynolds 531 tubing which I got from a garage sale for $15. Just need a good service and new tyres. Rode it around for a year or two then upgraded to brake/shifters from microShift and a new saddle - still a great bike. Then I started restoring brand name 90’s mtb’s and road bikes that I’d pick up at moving or estate sales - lots of older people dying or going into care here in Fl - again easy to restore and if components were needed they were cheap. Biggest costs were usually new tyres/tubes/seats mostly due to dry rot. Nowadays it’s just not worth it as no one is willing to pay even cost, let alone cover the costs of repainting/powder coating. The road bike went a few months back and having finally settled on a riding style I’m getting rid of everything and buying a Pipedream ALICE steel frame, building my own all purpose on/off road bike (I hate the term gravel) with a rigid fork and top quality new components and just having the one bike. My professional background as a materials scientist in aerospace/power generation and transportation/infrastructure over 30 years has made me very sceptical of anything metal/carbon coming out of china - the quality control on materials is atrocious. Cheap Chinese Crap would sum it up. I avoid carbon frames like the plague - there are just too many points on the frame where the 2-d nature of fibre reinforced laminates leads to fractures that one would just not see in a brazed or welded steel frame. Top of the back stays where they meet the seat posts - bottom bracket misalignment and poor tolerances are just examples along with poor wetout and internal voids. Even shimano have gone down hill with there cast hollow cranksets rather than drop forged aluminium all in the name of shaving a few 10’s of grams in weight.
Not a bargain but very competitive especially when it's a person across town or down the I5 wielding the torch. The big issue is wait time and willing to be flexible with parts.
@@escgoogle3865 most of the people that end up ordering from the small custom builders already have bikes to ride on while waiting. Parts they could just buy along the way as they wait.
I’m surprised people didn’t see this coming… I have many friends in the bike industry & we were having these conversations some time ago…
Last month I picked up a new Marin commuting bike at 30% off from a small bike shop that was sadly closing down due to lack of labor. I kitted it out with all accessories at 50% off at the same store. Good deal for me but sad our city lost a really good bike shop.
I hope some of the brands go bust after the way they treated independent bike shops during the boom.
I already got an Ibis Ripmo AF for 25% off a few months ago. But in reality I payed what that bike would have been worth a couple years ago. I just lucked out and got my first bike pre covid, and my second one post covid. I'll definitely be scouting deals on parts upgrades in '23.
I did the same. Its a simple bike that can be upgraded to run for quite a while. All the standards and geometry are "current" for now at least so it should be solid for a while
Right there with you. I knew I was probably overpaying but I got it now. At least I've been riding.
The SLX build at $3300 is a steal. I wouldn’t say you overpayed (even pre Covid). I did have to throw another 500 into it for a DHR rear tire, 210 1up dropper, and a coil shock (on sale from Ibis for $300) but for $3700 and built the way I like is awesome AF!
I got it too, when they were still putting DVO shocks front and rear on the Deore model. I’m super happy with it. Nice AF
Lucked out and got mine with Deore and DVO early in the pandemic. Upgraded a few parts as I learned what I liked. Hoping to get years more out of it! Loving it for the local trails, bike park, and even the lazy bike path / rail trail rides.
The fact that the bicycle industry didn't lobby for ebike rebates nationally, didn't move to an ebike model where service and the industry changing to a DTC model. My bicycle shops here take about a week to a month to service my ebike. Not good when you use your ebike to commute. The bicycle industry didn't adapt to a changing world. Some bicycle shops are cavalier about not servicing ebikes not purchased from the store, which is stupid and doesn't create an inviting environment for new customers. Also the bicycle industry didn't lobby for more bicycle infrastructure for all bicycle riders. The industry is about factions, not everyone is a racer or MTB, you have leisure riders and commuters too.
It's expected that there is a surplus.
What I'm noticing so far is that the prices are about 30% higher on bike brands I follow.
Also, wear items such as tires and brake pads are getting about that much higher as well.
I always buy used bikes so it doesn't effect me much but would like to buy a new one at some point.
I don't really think that for MTB it will be painful in that sector since if a person has already bought a bike, he will ride it and replace broken parts and etc. MTB is quite addiciting.
Totally correct. There will be a lot of discounts because new models are coming soon. And the fact that people have less cash or desire to buy an expensive rig or part will be a problem. Currently looks like most sram parts are deeply discounted which is good for those of us who wait.
Brands are not discounting, brands pricing keeps going up, shops on the other hand are dumping the overstock they ordered through covid, lesson here is if you want a deal you need to find a shop that has it in stock!!
@@Alex-md6bu Better off buy online.
@@Alex-md6bu I got a whole sram drivetrain and a fork half off online.
💸💸💸💸💸💸💸💸💸💸
One thing we're seeing is that a LOT of people bought entry level bikes or decent mid-range bikes but older tech. Those customers started coming in and saying "I really like this but this bike isn't meeting my needs as my skills/abilities progress." But there were no modern mid- or high-end bikes left at this point. Unfortunately, bike manufacturers didn't pay enough attention and only shipped low-end bikes, which nobody wanted any more. Shops are full of sub-$1.5K bikes but can't keep $4-6k bikes in stock. Further, the parts shortage led to a lot of people not having their bike for 3-4 months or more and many fell out of love with cycling or found other sports in that time. The other thing we saw is all those people who grossly overpaid the "Covid Price" for old, shitty bikes now have serious buyer's remorse - many bought a POS bike that needed hundred$$ in repairs. These people are rightfully bitter. And can we give a shoutout to Wahoo for releasing the V6 while warehouses are full of thousands of V5s. Seriously short-sighted.
2:40… very solid point… OEM’s will undoubtedly conduct layoffs, before any price adjusting.
This is a great video, effectively vocalising the crisis we're (us bike industry folk are dealing with). The trouble is real and as a small business owner, I can confirm the trouble is very real.
Prices on everything went up for me. My food costs almost doubled. Utilities, etc. My paycheck has not increased. What do you think I'm going to do? Even if there is a sale worth buying I'm not spending. I have two bikes and I have all the parts I will need for the next several years to maintain them. I won't even need to buy tires because I got like six new pairs. I have lots of clothing too. Seriously, I don't need to buy anything cycling related for years to come. So that being said I think it's going to be cool to sit back and watch as companies fail.
Plan on shopping for a road bike in march or April. Looking in the $4k area.
Most corporate sites still seem to show low inventories but that might be the 2022 models.
I guess I will find out in a couple months.
Problems started long ago with local races fading away and US CYCLING and other national groups bleeding memberships.
I had a feeling something weird might happen in 2023 for many products, so i bought an Electric bike ( cuz i'm old, with bad knees) because of Black Friday sale, and i thought maybe there may be a shortage next year ?
me too
I knew that was going to happen.. Painful. I did get a great deal on my Specialized Levo SL though
I think a lot of people did but there are companies that were too blinded to pay attention.
Hey bike 198 very informative vid.keep it going
The boutique brands with super nice offices/showrooms are toast.
Current situation in Germany seems very different (or possibly just lagging behind a lot) prices for bikes and especially e-bikes are still on the rise, the demand still seems very high and the stores don't have a lot in stock. I personally would think that this has created a bursting bubble- but the local shops certainly don't think so.
Yes, this seems to be once again a U.S. issue where greed is a much bigger problem. Rules and regulations in Europe keep us Europeans safe and manufacturers in check. Cheers from the Netherlands.
@@kelvinmulder Certainly seeing discount prices on bikes on the shop floor here in the UK
@@kelvinmulder rules in EUrope keep its citizens in check period , goodness i dont like eurotrash
@@kelvinmulder team america FUKK YEAH ...
@@kelvinmulder your regulations mean you pay 8 thousand euro for a 250w ebike SHUT THE ABSOLUTE FUKKKKK UUP, I gave a many thousand watt ebike for uner 1000 USA GOD BLESS THE USA
Based on what I am hearing, I do not see any bargains for consumers on the horizon, especially considering inflation driven prices.
The problem with the bicycle industry is that they're not marketing bikes for transportation nearly enough. Instead they are marketing them as sport articles for certain niches like road, mountain and gravel biking. The trend is going toward people riding their bikes for commuting and even travel. Many of us are still relying on 30 year old bikes that were far more suitable and durable for those things. Today commuters are more likely to buy electric bikes than regular bikes and it's not because they need motors. It's because the bike industry has missed a trend where cities are finally building more and better bike lanes. Go into any local bike shop and ask for a bike for commuting and they will either sell you crap, or ask you if you'r like a hybrid or a gravel bike. Neither of those are as good for commuting than a simple early 1980's chromoly frame bike with racks and fenders already included. WTF??
Ditched bicycle sales for service and repair only in 2015 and never looked back!
I stocked up on Specialized Butcher T9's at 34.50 a tire
I think we are going to see better deals on lower priced items like components, tires, apparel. It's definitely the time to start looking for those!
I bought my tubes from AliExpress in bulk. Supporting the LBS is not in my best interest at $9 - $12 a tube.
I work at a local shop in my city. Business since beginning of the year/end of last year has slowed substantially. And we have alot of inventory, especially bikes, that we can't move unless we discount at an insane rate. We also have less and less people coming in looking for bikes and people just aren't spending like they used to. It's hard to experience.
hard to experience? you just have to show up to work? is that hard to "experience"?
@@superstar5123 no. I should've said "sad to experience" or something alike. It's unfortunate the way the industry is going right now but that's not to say it could change and it does change all the time for many other industries
Look I work for a bike shop and the things we’re most concerned about are getting our higher end customer back. Bikes over $1000 just don’t sell as well as they used to due to increase in competition and market conditions. Typical mom and dad recreational bikes still sell well and probably will continue to.
Inflation has effected basic survival costs. Some places worse than others. There will be less interest in luxury mountain bikes. The prices will go down, but they will always be expensive.
Time will tell...It's only January and most popular riding areas are covered in snow.
So basically what happened to every industry. It's called supply and demand. Should have seen this coming is an understatement.
Yes, it’s not rocket surgery, but apparently it is to many. Just look at all the idiots complaining about car prices, as if dealerships are determining the insane prices instead of the consumers buying them.
I think we'll see sales and excess inventory at to lower end to mid market, but the demand is still there for high end bikes over the $5K mark. People who are in the market for expensive bikes have money and are largely insulated from the affects of recession and inflation. Still, I think the pricing increases will stop even at the high end. So many brands that took the opportunity during Covid to jack up prices, I think that ends now. I think it will be a great time to buy barely used high end Covid-era bikes from people like The Pro's Closet. Still, I think the biggest trend is going to be new competition in the industry. With the absurd pricing and general lack of innovation these days, I think the market is ripe for new entrants. Direct sales from brands like Canyon, Commencal and YT are already completely accepted. More interestingly, I am seeing more and more wheels and frames from Chinese brands like Winspace, Elves and Farsports show up on local rides. These brands have become viable, easy and trust-worthy options and are just going to continue to get better in '23 and '24. Even Chinese components are on the verge of breaking through. That's what is ultimately going to drive down prices: competition.
True I was think about buying a canyon arroad because it’s cheaper, but then I was offered a mechanic job at a local shop so I ended up buying a trek Emonda sl 7 just because it doesn’t look good for me as an employee to be riding a canyon when working at a trek dealer. If I wasn’t working in the industry I definitely would have gone with Canyon, and everyone is buy Canyon because most of the race road bikes are out of stock. Can’t say on the other bikes because I was only looking at race road bikes
Agree totally with you! I have bought two wheel sets from Lightbicycle. They are custome built. I got to choose the hub and spokes from various brands. Only the rims were made in China. The wheelset was crazy light and half the price of traditional brands. I also hate that Shimano and Sram no longer offer high end mech groupsets. I have e shifting on my road bike and will most likely upgrade my gravel bike to sram etap, but I have a trainer bike that I would like to use as a spare bike and want to upgrade the mech brakes to hydraulic and it is really hard to find inexpensive upgrade parts.
The Pro's Closet is a joke. They are raping people in charging almost retail for high end stuff. So this tells me that inventory is still zero for the nice stuff. I've been in the market for a new $8k - $10k roadbike. Local bike shops have nothing.
@@Davek111 i just bought a 2022 trek emonda sl7 etap and both 2022 and 2023 models are in stock
The reason the Chinese stuff is cheaper is you're buying direct from a manufacturer. The conventional model is: the brand buys from a manufacturer (or sometimes is the manufacturer) sells to a distributor (or sometimes distribute themselves) and the distributor sells to the bike shop. This means lots of people have to make a slice along the way. The retail price can't be that high because customers wouldn't pay it and so everybody in the chain (manufacturer, brand, distributor, shop) gets a thin slice of margin. The benefit to this model though is that the brand checks the quality and compliance of the manufacturer and provides a warranty, the distributor vets who they sell to and keeps the product in stock year round, the customer then buys from a vetted shop who can help fit the product and can provide after-sales support. If you buy direct from a Chinese manufacturer you might get a similar part, but who has done the quality and compliance? Who keeps it in stock, who fits it and who do you bring it back to with an issue? If you're okay to forego all of that for a better price you can, but I think the majority of people don't want to buy direct from China. If your product snaps and you have serious injuries you won't have much luck trying to take a Chinese factory to court in Europe or the US. The product *should* be fine, but the existing models exist for a reason. It's a risk buying direct from a factory.
Yes you are right. It looks like not only biking industry is going to get hit with the same problem.
In Houston Texas cycling has been booming!! Since Covid to date.
I mean, if a hard tail wasn't 1500 dollars for a good one that won't fall apart on the trials, then I'd be getting a new one every couple of years, but I can't justify spending the amount of a goddamn dirt bike on a bicycle anymore. At that point, I'd rather have the dirt bike.
Yeah, with manufaturers trying to sell $8,000 bikes with 105 groupsets, it is going to be a tough year. I am looking for a new bike but not in the market with that scenario.
must be a specialized lol
@@megane230f1 Trek Madone
I learned my lesson on waiting forever for a release date that never came. I went with a custom built bike frame from an independent and because of that,. I will never go back to the big manufactured bikes again. The benefits are Huge!
My Trek and Cannondale from the 1980s do everything that I need a bike to do. As long as I can get parts I see no need to drop several thousand dollars to replace those bikes.
Yep. My 22 year old Raleigh is holding up just fine.
I predict a very bad drop off in MTB demand. I like to compare the similarities of the MTB fad to the Windsurfing fad I was part of. At first it seemed like it was everyone's favourite pastime and sales volumes rocketed. Product technology advanced and kept people in an upgrade cycle and drawing more people in. Prices also started rising and bore no relation to manufacturing cost increases. The market got saturated and people started discovering that windsurfing was not that easy to learn to do very well without commitment and resilience. Suddenly the number of people partaking in the sport fell due to a combination of some or all of high prices, lack of interest, lack of commitment to learn and continue with the sport, moving on to the next great thing etc. Huge numbers of second hand gear hit the market and it was visible that there were less participants out in the water. This took place over a number of decades and well before kite surfing developed and became popular.
I predict a very similar product lifecycle in the MTB market. A lot of people joined the MTB fraternity in the recent pre-Covid era, and even more during COVID. Many people are discovering that riding requires good fitness, a lot of commitment to learn to do well, a high level of risk and pain tolerance, and a lot of money to maintain and keep equipment current. Along with very high price vs utility value, a lot of consumers are now realising that they have lost interest in the sport and have very expensive idle equipment lying around. A lot of this idle equipment will be resold in to the second hand market. This, along with the additional new supply coming on line as manufacturers overcome the logistical and manufacturing log jams, as well as misreading the consumer demand and high prices, will lead to a very large drop in sales of new equipment and a consolidation in various parts of the industry.
There are some similarities between WS and MTB but other than the high equipment price issue I think the latter is not going to face the same fate as the former. MTB is not as weather dependent as WS, it's much easier to get into, and skills wise you can very soon become a competent intermediate. Fitness can be a challenge at first but even this is less of a problem with the introduction of e-bikes. MTB beginners can easily have access to friendly equipment (bike geo is safer than ever). Windsurfing in the late 90's and early '00s focused on high performance and completely forgot about developing beginner friendly gear. Newcomers to the sport would yry to learn on massively undersized boards and demanding race sails and were thus put off before getting to enjoy the sport.
It's frustrating how so many don't do their due diligence before investing time and money into their new "hobby". I imagine wing foiling will suffer the same fate when people realize it's very hard to learn even at the most basic level. Kitesurfing is definitely in it's drawdown period but in my area there are still lots of people partaking when the conditions are right.
Your take on MTB is interesting. It's always had it's up and down periods but I think there will always be people who just want to ride a bike off road so it will survive.
You may be correct, but within limits.
The big advantage mountain bikes, and bikes in general, enjoy is their utilitarian aspect. You can't wind surf to work. Or go shopping by windsurfer.
The bicycle has always offered transportation in addition to exercise, adventure, shredding, racing, climbing, descending and all the other fun stuff! So I can go pick up some stuff at the store and take an enjoyable ride over to the lake or park. This is what will hopefully always make the bicycle - in whatever current form or craze - popular and enduring.
Just to clarify, I'm not suggesting that the market for Bicycles in general will ever not be popular or decline as dramatically as windsurfers did. I'm postulating that the market for Mountain Bikes specifically is quite saturated at the moment and that sales will decline from their Covid highs for all or some of the reasons that I raised in the windsurfing analogy. I don't believe that MTB will die off completely. Other bicycle market segments,such as road bikes, have a fairly steady or even growing market in the case of ebikes.
@@marcelknop1 MTB has (at least in terms of the sport actually being called mountain biking) has been around since the mid 80s. In all that time, it's gone through a few boom and bust cycles (pun in intended). If it drastically declines in 2023, it will pick back up in the future. And then go bust again. As I mentioned before, there will always be people who want to ride off road. And the great thing about MTB is it can be as mellow/sedate or as hardcore as you want it to be.
Interestingly, windsurfing as seen somewhat if a resurgence in my area.
I'm not a fan of E-bikes, but maybe that part of the industry will help keep things afloat. Anyone I've talked to who rides an E-bike seems to be in love with their purchase. In other words, riding the E-bike may keep their interest in riding. A monthly/weekend warrior doesn't have to dread long uphills and thus may keep riding because it's easier to go further and explore.
@Dane Murphree
I've changed my veiw on E-bikes..
As a standard cycle rider I used to think they were 'cheating', but i now meet so many 'older' people, or people that have had injuries, getting out & about on E-bikes, keeping themselves fit, mentally active & getting fresh air, it brings real joy to my heart.
Also, if or when I'm unable to pedal under my own steam, i now know there are still options to continue what i love. 👍
I was a ebike hater. Then I ended up being the few in the group who didn’t have one thus 2/3 through the ride knackered as not riding loops just up & down all day. Now I ride all day & at the end of the day still feeling fresh. Only downside to them is the price !!!! Anything with half decent components is way over 8 grand! They really are taking the piss out of us
@@andrewsadler989
Great story! 👍
Completely agree regarding the rip-off price.
My personal experience supports the other comments made here. I'm a 50+ years "on the saddle" cyclist and used to look at ebikes as cheating. But in the same way you can have light and heavy days in the gym, you can get a good workout on an ebike. If I want a harder workout, I "shift" frequently between power assist levels so I only use the juice when I need it. If you use the power smartly, you can get the same caloric burn rate on either a traditional or e bike. The traditional bike is still my bike of choice for longer rides (50+ miles) due to range concerns. But at age 68, most of my rides are in the 20-40 range nowadays. My e bike is my preferred choice nowadays - it sure is nice on longer and steeper hills or with headwinds above 15 mph. And there is a certain joy in passing my 25 year old look alike on steep hills LOL!!!
@@michaelhassett1329
Hahaha! Brilliant story! 👍
You're a fantastic inspiration as I'm 'only' 62, and hopefully have many decades left in my legs.
As to your experience about passing younger guys going uphill, it reminds me of the 1st time i was overtaken by what looked like an 80 year old granny... I was gobsmacked, as i was setting a good pace.
It took me a few minutes to figure out it was an E-bike as it was silent & the rear cassestte was so slim.
I confess that initially I was a bit annoyed with myself, but when i returned home & reflected, I had a good laugh at myself & began to see the true value of E-bikes.
Keep up the sterling work! 👍💪
From a guy who has spent more money on bikes than vehicles in the last ten years, the hole is the value of a used bike. I dropped big dollars on bikes that are instantly worth less when I walk out the door. I strongly suggested to local shops and called manufacturers suggesting that warranty needs to be transferable. If I purchase a new car and sell it the existing warranty is transferred.
Having heard that 12 speed Dura Ace is very hard to get hold off.
When a new top end bike is dearer than a large capacity motorcycle you know the industry has been taking the piss!. There is not a single Chinese made frame that costs over 500 dollars or pounds to manufacture so where do these ridiculous prices come from it's just greed. I think in the present climate people will just purchase cheaper new bikes or buy on the second hand market. Hopefully manufacturers will concentrate more on the lower/ middle end of the market because I sure as he'll don't know any of my friends who plan to spend £10.000 on a new bike anytime soon!!.
I know lots of people that like cycling but I know not one that will spend more than $3000 for a bicycle. And even that would price point would be asking a lot. I think it's good interest rates are going up, now maybe everything will start to level out and be as it should be.
The advancements in Geo and tech have grown stagnant. This upcoming season will be my third on my Santa Cruz and I’m not missing out on anything new other than outrageous costs !!!! They got what they deserved.
Definitely Buy A Bike You Like And Ride It 😎
Fine by me... I'm happy with the Geos I'm running, and if anything I want steeper HTAs to come back... please
@@halfgeek1394 Agreed. I’m hanging on to my V1 Megatower. It’s 47.5 HTA , super agile and pedals great. New one is too long and too slack for my trails.
Price is 100% the problem. In the 90's a good bike was $350-800 GT, Trek, Specialized etc and a $2,000 bike I thought was like a Lance Armstrong level. Today I'm in a Facebook mountain bike group, daily I see posts asking what's a good starter bike and I'm shocked to see people saying a good starter bike is around $2,500 and anything cheaper is junk! Hell, I felt good with my wife and my $98 Huffy Rock Creek bikes and thought my Giant road bike and Hyper Spinfit 700c were "expensive" but looks like I'm out of touch with the market 😩. The bike shop I took my $98 Huffy into for a derailer repair laughed, said the repair would cost more than I paid for the bike and recommended I buy a $2,000 "entry level" bike. Repaired it myself. Personally I can't imagine paying more than a couple hundred for a bike, not to mention financing one 🤷♂️.
"a good starter bike is around $2,500 and anything cheaper is junk"
"recommended I buy a $2,000 "entry level" bike"
These 2 sentences pretty much tells us all we need to know about how screwed up the people engaged in this 'Sports' are.
I am still using a "basic" steel geared cycle that I purchased in 2010 (with some parts replaced with better ones)....and i routinely do around 50+ miles every other day.....no issue.
The ONLY people who zoom past me are the ones on road bikes....and an occasional fit person on a hybrid.
A vast number of people DO NOT need these crazy expensive cycles but like a brainless moron end up spending on them....mostly to scratch that 'expensive cycle owner' itch.
Ive always thought around 3600 was the magic mark for a good bike. I think even a newb deserves basic Ultegra level, and for MTB something better than 105 (XT). I note what used to cost that costs well over mid 5s now. Luckily when I was in the need of a new road machine earlier in the year I had a bike shop sell me an Argon18 KRypton GF--a bike stickered at 4700-- for 3599.00. Rides as good as the Orbea Orca I paid 3600 for 10+ years ago.
Some good points here. Definitely food for thought. I almost wonder if it’s easier for small biker owned companies to weather this type of environment. The reason I say this, some small companies can pause production for quarters or longer. Large companies have to continue to grind to maintain their overhead.
You can buy an mx bike for similar prices to some bikes
It's two completely different markets/manufacturing cost/volume. I get where people can get to that comparison but they are completely different (I sell into the MX/ATV industry).
. They both have forks both have rear suspension both have two wheels and a frame your honestly saying that the mx companies get al there raw materials so cheap that they can r and d a whole engine build it and make a profit off it at the cost mtb companies can only build a bike.
@@stevenanderson7471 I agree with you. As a fellow mx rider and mtb rider, the bicycle should be far less expensive.
Yeah a motor cost $20+ million to develop...ain't no bicycle cost that much to develop. The reality is that the bicycle industry knows that people are willing to pay outrageous prices where the moto industry not so much. This is true for most purely recreation industries. Motocycles aren't purely recreational....it mostly is in the US but in other countries it is transportation. So there is the difference between a commodity vs a luxury good. And that is what modern high tech bicycles are luxury products with the associated prices.
Basically the bike industry can just take the piss and charge what they want no excuse
Good, the utter greed of the industry of the last 2-3 years had to end. I have absolutely zero sympathy for any company that gets a hammering, possibly with the exception of the small brands who couldnt get any stock. Some brands who got way ahead of themselves and started charging ridiculous prices - yes Specialized, Santa Cruz et al Im looking at you - are in for a huge smack in the face.
Don't forget Colnago. Ernesto saw what was coming and sold the brand. Now the investors are trying marketing BS to justify way higher prices. Colnago never really used a lot of marketing in the past, the name sold the bikes, but now the bikes are no different than Specailized or some others but the asking price is thousands more. That's a company that needs a swift kick.
Good time to be looking for a new trail / all mountain bike, I hope.
Just discovered the channel….great video.
I am in the market for a relatively high end bike, or just the frame, and it is impossible to find. I am not personally seeing a buyer’s market out there yet.
I think you got it spot on, and with decent quality components now becoming more readily available from China I see a turbulent year ahead for the market. It's needed a shake up for a while so it's an I'll wind etc.....
Quality from china? Hah!
The Bicycle industry will survive because as soon as the fuel ⛽️ prices rise much higher soon bikes will sell again. Car prices will rise higher, new and used. Bicycles 🚲 are a must needed vehicle. Europe is a great example. I have great faith in the industry. Thanks for your video.
Good thing in our country, there's a huge surplus of cheaper alternatives for built bikes and parts good enough for both recreational and commute. Brands like Trek, Merida, Cannondale, Marin, Specialized, S-Works, and Colnago are just luxury.
good wee vid. We are seeing more demand for service, and especially from eBikes and cargo bikes. appetite to upgrade when when parts wear out has gone. Going a spec level down on tyres is common, mostly out of principle. Generally just a lot of shock at how expensive everything got. Luckily for us all the big internet dealers are rapidly liquidating stock cheaper than trade prices, so we just buy the parts we need from them instead of the usual wholesale suppliers. Crazy times.
I'm in my mid-40s and play in the BMX market. The vintage stuff is starting to come down, because nobody was pulling the trigger on a tattered $5K Pro Freestyle Tour frame & fork.
I just started buying parts all over the internet within the last month. The prices aren't great across the board yet, but the sales are impressive when they happen.
I can’t say I agree. The local market where I live is saturated with dogmas, specialised, cervelos, BMCs etc. and those folks usually tend to own multiple bikes because, it’s just fun having multiple bikes.
even now, the local shops still cannot keep up with the demand. cheap sub 3k bikes are available for immediate delivery in their inventory, while the above brands bikes in the range of 6k and above are all still on back order.
Singaporeans too rich lol
Crazy just had this conversation with are local bike shop. I bought 3 bikes for Christmas for my family we are into BMX thousand dollar bikes for 1/2 the price! Had to call the company to see if that was the correct price and if they were in stock. They said yes and that they were overstocked! Had the local bike shop put them together so my family wouldn’t see them. The owner said he couldn’t touch those prices. He said what keeps him going are repairs,tune up’s and assembly of new bikes that are being purchased off the internet.
Interesting content , subbed bro
There also will be a big surplus of used bikes, as there were many that tried something they could do during Covid, but now realize biking was not for them.
I’m so glad I bought my bike in march of 2020. I got a 40% discount! Lucked out at the perfect time.
Bikesonline got me into the Polygon D7 for $1800 and it was a steal....on sale now for $1200 and an outrageous deal! 2500 hard miles and no problems means you can get an ''Ordinary'' bike with Spec like the ''Known'' brands for less. 80% of Riders don't need a truly capable race level bike but they exist for those who DO!
This video caught my attention since I was just browsing carbon wheels and noticed several stores selling them at discount prices, which surprised me, since last time I looked (a few months ago) most places had no stock and prices were sky high here in UK. Now though I guess people will think twice before splashing out on such “luxury” items with cost of living crisis. I know I am.
Big winner in all this has to be Zwift. I Zwift w all my bubbies now in winter and we all still ride in summer outside. So having that newest bike isn’t as shiny as training well.
Will you see early release dates for new models? and also wondering if sales will start sooner in the year as well, currently waiting for the Specialized Epic Hardtail Expert!
I'm optimistic clearance sites like Nashbar (not them specifically as I know they're bought and done) will come back. They used to be my go to for bike stuff, and it's been tough to bike on a budget without them.
Interesting and informative.
Just bought a 1986 Schwinn Traveler off Craigslist. It's the smoothest bike I've ever ridden.
In the know -thanks.
Well put
Good analysis 👍
What’s crazy is: this same thing happened in the tech industry- began to sell off January 2022, and the real estate market, started to dive March 2022 after tech money stopped.
Now they are feverishly trying to reduce new home inventory while individual sellers don’t seem to realize prices of selling homes have dropped tremendously…
Who didn’t see the pandemic boom ending? Evidently a Lot of companies who should know better.
I remember the days when a motorcycle cost more than a push bike. Now its the other way round. Too many shops and not enough customers, something has got to give.
I did wonder why there seems to be plenty e bikes available online at pretty fair prices ...a big change from before
Having worked in the bike industry and seen first hand the "landed" price of product.. the mark ups are insane.
Former road bike racer here: the cost of a few carbon fiber tubes joined together to make a bicycle frame, is as expensive as some motorcycles from the big four manufacturers, and that is absolutely absurd. One should be able to buy a brand new carbon fiber Trek, Specialized, with full 11spd Ultegra for about $3600 instead of $5900.
I work in a shop. The consensus is "we are fu*ked". Right now, buy parts. No one can buy new bikes so people will resort to fixing/upgrading. And with the surplus, Our shop is buying parts because we foresee a massive increase in bike maintenance and rebuilds.
There is also something akin to the substitution effect; buyers swapping to alternative product, e.g. electric scooters. Some bike shops even offer this type of product. This is popular in the SEQld market with commuters; easy to pack and park under the desk.
Income effect is always greater than the substitution effect for normal goods, so I wouldn’t expect this to be a huge problem but for the fact that real incomes are declining.
@@chadwells7562 yes, I use John Williams shadow stats when I want credible economic data, so I agree real income is in decline.
@@altbinhax I used to go there to look at the numbers, I don’t anymore because it’s too depressing 😭