D.R. Horton Disaster | Bankruptcy Risk & Price Cuts
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- Опубликовано: 17 окт 2024
- D.R. Horton Disaster | Bankruptcy Risk & Price Cuts
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Live in Fort Worth area. New master plan community. DR Horton has dozens of new, finished homes sitting empty. And yet they keep building on street after street. Guess they can't stop the train til it runs off the track.
What a great week it has been with Travis, Melody, Todd & Jack all together sharing their knowledge with us.
Great job you two on covering the new home communities. Lots of inventory!
Thank you brother
I'm just now starting to realize that D.R. Horton is not a Canadian fast food chain.
😆
Good start! Lol.
Me too! 🤣🤣
And what about Canada? Worse off? Tons of FOMO. Already starting to pick up.
What are you talking about? I used to eat at the DR Horton's on Harden Street in Toronto for years. Best pork popsicle in town. 🥴
Thank you Travis and Melody! Great collaboration. I can certainly see the compassion in both of you caring how primarily the common folk is being affected towards their dream of eventually having a piece of what has been in the DNA of America in owning a home. I'm a boomer with no mortgage through sheer hard work and so I hope that dream will not become fulfilled just for the wealthy and a fantasy for the rest in the future. Thank you both for all you do.
Maybe they could move more homes if they would start building a quality product. It took us over 2 years to get them to fix the major issues with our new build and we just had to learn to live with the minor ones. Missing insulation, crooked walls, windows in the wrong place, missing electrical outlets, kitchen counters not level. Half the houses in our development had to have the driveways pulled up and redone. We were supposed to have security camera wiring installed and that didn't happen in any of the houses. If you have to by a DR Horton house hire your own building inspector, take a bunch of pictures and document everything because you will need them to force DR Horton to do the repairs.
Thank you for the advise.
I live in Northport Florida and they overbuilt here..tons of homes for sale and their still building..crazy..
The national new home builders in my town have just finished the current section of the neighborhoods and are almost done selling the fully completed homes. They will be tip toeing into the new sections with more price reductions. These buyer concessions that have been huge this past year will come to the lime light and appraisals will start to reflect it. Lenders really need to crack down and put more limits on buy downs as it is not fair to the buyers in the long run when the prices drop
it costs less than 250k to build an absolutely badass home from scratch... the rest is real estate price and profit on top.... just food for thought.
I've built many houses myself. The real cost to build a house is simple. It takes one man-year of labor to build a 1500 square foot 3-2-2. Then it takes one more man-year of labor to pay for the materials. Then there is the land cost. OK So that's 2 man-years labor plus the lot. At $50k per year for the semi skilled labor and $25k for a lot. That's a cost of $125,000 for that house. They are trying to get many times that for these house now. Ridiculous!
You Cannot Compare Baltimore with DC, And northern VA, is not the same as across the River in Maryland. I am a Certified General Appraiser in DC, MD, VA. NC, SC, GA, and TN. Travel all over this area weekly, DC is immune to lots of things the rest of the country may be influenced by.
Melody is SO WISE and I completely agree with her!
The lead time for builders to get a project into and back out of the pipeline is years! Once they start , stopping the project mid way through can be devastating financially.
Awesome job ... This channel should have many, many more subscribers!
Thanks for the DHI update Travis. But did you see the new homes sales data that was released yesterday for Dec? we were expecting 2 and the actual was 8.2 probably the builders sold enough home to cover for the next year already.
Actually D.r Horton earnings were still overall great. Net profit about 1bil$ this quarter. Profit margin per house sale has doubled from 5 years ago. Cost about the same to build a house, but double the profit. Their not going anywhere soon. ( I’m not a buyer @ these price)
They are the problem. We need real competition in the housing market, and not collusion between builders to keep prices high. What they have done is illegal.
🎉🎉🎉 Such a great colab video 👏👏👏 And your glasses 👓 are very cool 😎.
Stay safe and healthy my friend. Blessings,Carlos ✝️🙏❤️😊🇺🇸
I’m surprised they even allowed you three in a real estate conference with all those cheerleaders. Bet you’re getting a few nasty looks. Keep up the good work.
This is the thing. We keep saying “it isn’t sustainable” I agree but I am from the so cal market and they have been saying that to 30 years. I don’t know how it keeps going this way but it is. Time will tell
Unsustainable practices are the basis of the western economies but the boom bust cycles are real. So cal had busts several times since I moved there in 1985.
@@lakelvpthis is because we don't use a sound money system
I've been in Orange county my entire long life, I've never heard anyone claim this is all "unsustainable" until maybe 2 years ago
I bought a home in Los Angeles in 1991 for $179,000 and people were saying then that they would never be able to buy a home.
I’m not holding my breath to afford to buy where I grew up (OC) and looking to relocate out of state
The softening of prices is a good thing. When supply is higher than demand curves, prices will adjust to eventually meet each other. This is happening now, so should be good for the consumer. Usually in an election year, the party in power wants a good economy leading up to an election . I suspect Federal Reserve will drop interest rates very slowly. Hopefully more young people can get into the housing market.
I think we will see 4 drops this year for a total 2% down on the Fed funds rate. It’s an election year and every lever of power seems determined to try to get Biden re-elected. I want to say that there are so many sidelined buyers that once rates go below 5% then there will be a flood of buyers hit the market, probably in spring/summer of next year. That will give us another short term spike in home prices.
New home builders will have to lead the charge since existing inventory is so miniscule. The Sacramento area is still ridiculously outrageous due to low inventory.
Ask, how can it sustain? Bailout would be the only way right? What would a Bailout to do the market?
All of these homebuilders had their day in 2020 especially 2021. They had the attitude by or get out of the way guess what the table has turned now the buyers are the boss.
Our builder Pulte is giving up to $100k off new home prices in our community in the Phoenix area
OK so what?
Needs to be $200k off.
Thank you Travis and your info partner Melany! Great video AND i have been saying this since AUG 2021 and it will be WORSE than 2007-2012 and unfortunately made enemies from those discussions. Great report at the Hotel FOYER and its called a Foyer because it is made FOR YOUR convenience
Is that from the Hank Hill Propane Accessories Thesaurus??
No. It refers to the 1st Goodyear all terrain 100K mile steel belted radial tire OR YOUR MONEY BACK @@t0manderson571
Meaning the Goodyear Radial Tire Aaaand all of its accessories. Instead the vehicle moves around the tires and NOT the tires around the spindles
Finally you got to New York. I live in this area and I am trying to buy a house and move to New Jersey or upstate.
Move to dutchess county. Beautiful over there.
Great guest! Nice seeing other people who agree about the insanity.
Would be nice to see a breakdown of where the biggest reductions are located, or at least have links where we can do our own research. It's definitely not happening in many parts of SoCal. In fact, there are price INCREASES over the past year! Definitely depends on the location but these videos can be misleading and make it seem like a crash is coming. Millennials is the largest group besides the boomers and many still want to buy a home. Demand still exists, people are just waiting on the sidelines.
Only in southern states we are seeing price reductions due to over building. Places like Socal or Seattle are seeing prices going up.
I just heard about a 69 homes subdivision. The homes are selling for 4 million each the first six were built and there’s a waiting list of 200 people..
Over the last 40 years, the size of the average home has DOUBLED.
Important point. And while family size has dropped. Heating and cooling 14-16 feet high " vaulted ceilings " is double the cost of 8-9 feet high ceilings.
We are growing as a population due to immigration in the coastal cities. The buyers also have cash and can drop $3 million on a dime. The thing is the housing is going multigenerational.
DR Horton Hears a Who
What are your thoughts on land values going forward? In Gates NC, Suffolk VA area, there are literally NO listings available and as soon as a large parcel that is something half way decent comes up, everybody and their brother seems to have $100's of thousands of dollars in their back pockets to jump on it and overbid asking price. Very frustrating and discouraging because just a few years back, if you had that kind of money you were king and had anything to pick from at your fingertips.
I know right? Did everyone except for you and I win the lottery or something ?
Enjoying this content. I’ll be keeping an eye on Southern California inventory.
D.R. Horton said its gross home sales profit margin was 22.9%, lower than its previous estimate of 23.7% to 24.2%
Seems like they are still making a lot of money
Do you think that the oracle of Omaha will put his money in a failing company?
Last time I checked, he invested billions on DHI, LEN & NVR. And we have these two fools warning about the biggest homebuilder in America. To each its own.
Well, as someone between Charlotte and Raleigh, I wanted to hear about it.
Thanks Guys
thanks guys for educating us and making a difference!❤❤❤
8:30 mark describes Las Vegas NV perfectly!
Thank you Melody ❤
As to the driveway issues. They use 2500 PSI concrete! Or hot loads in the afternoon at a discount. Not 3000 or 3500 like real builders. Anything to save a penny. Chances are excellent that your D.R. Horton driveway will fail in less than 8 years.
Thanks for the video, you guys are doing a great job. 🤙🏼
This guy Travis is on fire ❤❤❤
The walmart of housing
Thank you. Very enlightening.
I’m looking forward to seeing your video about Raleigh.
You are doing God's work! Keep up the good work. You are helping soooooo many people. I can provide some insight into the markets/housing etc. I follow & track 197 industry groups and Mutual Fund participation!!!!!
Stop it. These people sell fear and thats all.
Back to the 80's were the bubble began...be patient.
Love all the information, but need to let everyone know that the Baltimore market is not and has never been related to the DC market. I’m from the area and can tell you those two markets feel like different planets some times
Maybe short DHI stock over the next 6 months and make bank.
DR Properties in my area are noticeably dropping and they have a bad reputation
Most of these developer's make a huge profit on these cheaply, quickly made homes. People keep buying them up because they have open floor plans and three pendant lamps in the stainless steel and white kitchen...
They build cheaply compared to other builders
Really amazing collaboration
you are an ABSOLUTE great guy Travis. And this vide is a real BUNKERS as always :)
Shes amazing!!! I hope her channel gets some real traction soon!
This is 100% BS
Home values throughout Florida are declining rapidly.
WE WILL BE CUTTING PRICES!
IN OTHER WORDS, WAIT, WAIT and WAIT, AND THEN WAIT MORE.
IT WILL PAY OFF!
SAVE UP, STAY OUT OF DEBT!
DEBT TURNS YOU INTO A SLAVE!
THANKS FOR THE ADVICE. 🤣
Buy bargains; not bubbles!
Been in contracting for 39 years and I would never buy a home from DR Horton, extremely bad rep in the real estate world. I know there's countless lawsuits against them that date back years. I remember when a whole subdivision sued them in NC. I see home inspectors all the time warning people about them.
Don't forget student loans.
You and Clear Value Tax have such completely opposite views. It will be fun to see how it plays out. You have your feet on the ground. I vote for you.
I think the effect of the commercial real estate market will play out like this.
There was a story out of San Francisco of a company that owed $90 million on an office building and they decided to hand the keys over to the lender. Just like with a mortgage, the only collateral on commercial real estate is just the building. The bank can’t go after the company a majority of the time. So the company had the bank foreclose on the building, putting the building up for auction. The the company, having $30 million cash on hand, bought the building at auction for $30 million and the bank ate the $60 million difference between auction price and what was owed on the building.
That bank was BoA, they can take that kind of hit without too many issues. But the number of smaller regional banks that have loans of this type out on the market is pretty large. I could see other companies doing this exact same kind of thing for commercial property they hold. Let the bank foreclose on the property, sell it at auction and try to buy it bank. The companies doing this will make out like bandits if they are successful and the banks, eating all of those losses, will start collapsing one by one. That will force the Fed to open up the money printer to try to keep regional banks afloat OR cause the largest banking consolidation in U.S. history where thousands of smaller banks are eaten by the big 5 until we only have a few banks left. The government of course pushing for a “more efficient and simpler banking system” with such a consolidation.
DR Horton has NOTHING to do with commercial real estate/
@@steveludwig4200 Yeah they do. If banks start to collapse, lending dries up and homes don’t get sold. Also, they mentioned the commercial real estate market a few times in the video.
They are talking about lowering interest rates today, they are already going off a cliff but don't know it.
On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the Zombie apocalypse, Where is Horton?
DR Horton has huge interest payments due on their spec builds that are yet not paid for. Price cuts should be good august-October
Though build quality is questionable at best
I have to disagree very strongly with Melody on one point. She stated we are not growing as a population......Texas National Guard has asked Melody to hold their beer.....
DR: RYAN.
Oh btw?, You should wear some suspenders some fancy 2 inch thick wide suspenders & when you do your intro I would pull those suspenders out with both thumbs & snap them back when you say the word “Bonkers”.
Now that’s something I would pay to see 😂😂😂
Also, it would be nice to make a video of what would happen to the housing market when the feds start the money printing press again.
She mentioned that Americans are not having the amount of children to grow the economy. This may not be an acceptable fact by many people, but that is the purpose and benefit of illegal immigration. They have fueled the economic growth of the United States for the last 4 decades. Immigration benefits domestic businesses by being the additional people to buy goods and services. Immigrants do put a burden on government resources. But business does not concern itself with that burden.
So they are in Las Vegas? What’s going on there?
Melody! 🥳🎉🌟💃
Price cuts where? In ca $20k price cut makes absolutely no difference
Dr horton cut too many corners after covid. Windows with broken seals, plastic ridge went, poor quality on roof construction(non windstorm areas).
They have terrible reviews.. Seems they do shoddy work all over the country...
This discussion is from the side of that the government actually cares about the people . There will be no bailout and they go bust and take a guess who takes over all that housing ? Renter nation if you can buy , buy!
The rent is too damn high!
Bonkers 🎉😊
I dont feel sorry for any of these home builders. In the denver market it usually costs the builder 10k for a 10,000 sq lot, they mark it up to $40-$50k and tag it on the price of the house. It costs an average of 150-225k to build a house. And they have the audacity to try and charge the consumers 500-600k???
Nah, they are not struggling, they’re greedy.
And on top of that, they tag in this crazy ass metro tax that puts new home property taxes on par with the state of Texas, and in some cases the metro tax is for the duration of the loan.
Question for the subscribers just out of curiosity. If you were offered a free house of the same square footage between Lennar and D.R. Horton. Which one are you taking? Yes, I suspect some will say neither....har har.
I guess it depends on the area. My experience with DHI is they mostly offered lower quality, but better priced homes than Lennar (although LEN has several "collections", sometimes in the same sub).
Get some pro to compare apples to apples for advice.
Most of these developers build junk... they just put some fake bling on the fronts
Neither! LOL Both cookie cutter junk.
Great news that America’s largest home builder, D.R. Horton, will be cutting prices to spur demand.
But there horrible homes, I would never buy these nightmare homes
DR Horton have a waiting list in our area!
My God that’s so sad for these families
I'm glad I bought a townhome in September of 2023. I wouldn't want to be waiting another 3 to 5 years or longer to buy. I'm 51 years old you know. 😂
I think it will be sooner than 2025..
I think I have been at that venue
DR Horton has $3.8 billion dollars in their savings acct. How ridiculous is this conversation…
Glad to see Melody has sobered up for this video 😂
Bless your little heart 😍 I can tell you're super smart.
🤡
DR Horton is a crap company.
@@Peonies925 agree!
Your videos by yourself are the best
Our GDP includes military spending, without that number we're in the negative.
We just let 8 million child bearing and younger migrants inside the country in the last three years, on top of 1 million legal immigrants every year. Native population growth may be stagnate, overall population is exploding
Most of those people will only drain our society not contribute
Some how game is never a 1 direction. Don't ever only be buyer or seller if you could know when to buy and sell. Then you control the game. Game dont control you.
Fed rate cut are mean something to worry and something big behind that most people has misunderstand that rate cut mean price up. It is not always the case then would be an too easy game. this is not a 1+1always =2. so When rate up mean economic are good enough to handle it but when rate cut it is indicated that the economic is not strong no more. That why
Unemployment rate in CA now are heat up to 5.1% . To me it is already 5.5% but the data is mostly coming late.
Sorry to all the people who lost thier job. It is not ant easy life to those who depend on job to live life. And The game of buying and selling for profit has come to an end. Unless there are another money printing injection support.
I tink you be right long time
Hard work
I’m perpetually astounded at how many elderly (70+) single women and feeble couples , live in houses of >5k-10k square feet. This cannot be sustainable.
They must be lonely in there.
Absolutely bonkers
i took a dr h0rt0n plan and built it myself in 1989
If you buy going to need to sell at a huge loss because your competing against dhi don't buy don't buy don't buy
Even a $300k home is unaffordable right now.
new home builders appear to be still raising prices
It depends on where you are in the union.
There are some price reductions in new construction, but like I posted, it is misleading. Any pro in the industry knows that price per square foot is meaningless without comparing apples to apples... excep these RUclipsrs.
Will be going down way longer than 2025. 40 year bond bear incoming.
HEY
DR Horton is the largest, not number 1
Yoinks
Didn't Warren Buffett buy in around $700 million in stock last year ??? Talking about bailouts, I think it is entirely possible only because these big hedge firms have bought so much of he real estate to have income against our retirement money.... talk about liquidity
The old man bought DHI, LEN and NVR last year, but I've heard of even higher bets from Wall St. Sign of the times that big money is scooping single family homes (and us the commoners have to adapt or else).
But we should listen to these two real estate experts- not Warren Buffet…😒
Absolutely bonker
What absurd ignorance you people are "selling" here. DR Horton stock is within 5% of the ALL TIME high and this is what REAL smart investors think of the company at this time, not two goofball youtubers that post clock bait videos to make money. And btw quit referencing the "financial collapse" of 2008-2011 because there is NOTHING in the current economy even close to that. Selling fear doesnt work anymore.
Don't waste your time giving stats to these youtubers...they should start their own church because only talk about fiction to frustrated people who want to believe in miracles.
2008 lemon loans. Today it's lemon homes. Banks access the value and make the loans on these lemons. Criminals from top to bottom. Panama Papers.
She does sound hammered lol.
The cognitive biases that rationalize unsustainable behaviors and lead to denialism (faith over fact) are at the root of happiness. Affordable housing is at the root of comfort. We can have both.
I think the only ones happy are those making videos like this while monetizing thanks to their followers.