Operations Management 101: What is an Exponential Moving Average?

In this video, I cover the basics of Exponential Moving Averages in Time Series Forecasting. We compare the EMA to the Naive Method, Simple Moving Average, and Weighted Moving Average. An in-depth discussion of alpha, the exponential smoothing constant, is also included. In this example, we will be using college enrollment data to test different methods and then predict Fall 2012 enrollment.
My playlist table of contents, Video Companion Guide PDF documents, and file downloads can be found on my website: www.bcfoltz.com

[@amanif3072]

You are the greatest statistics teacher eveerrr Thank you so much for making it understandable and more logical it means the world ❤

[@BrandonFoltz]

Hey Sid! If we look at those graphs as probability density functions then yes the areas will all be 1. Increasing alpha would shift probability leftward. All we are doing is taking the same "area" and allocating it differently over time. However these aren't technically probability functions, but we could call them exponential distributions for the sake of argument where alpha is the rate parameter.

[@magicsgirl93]

i love this man. Class is over and I'm still reviewing his info

[@RUSSIAN7MAFIA]

hey just wanted to say thank you for putting your own time into this and helping out the community. it definitely clears up a lot of things... after the class i didn't understand what weighted meant. so you could already imagine the struggle lol... it all makes sense for the most part, just need practice doing it myself. thanks again

[@dhavaldwivedi]

Excellent video

[@eswan7638]

Hell Brandon. This is a fantastic video. an create some introductory videos on ARMA models and what the parameters such as white noise mean?

[@PortnoyII]

This is with regard to the slide that says "Visual Alpha Weightings". Correct me if I'm wrong, but the integral of each of these graphs from zero to infinity should be the same (in other words, the area under the graph should remain same) because the total no. of weights is constant. Increasing the alpha value only causes a vertical dilation (stretch) in the function.

[@owinbottles3417]

Awesome explanation Sir! Became your fan!

[@DanielBurrueco]

Great explanation, but I think the alpha .75 curve found in 0:23:30 is not right... It should follow the actual data (if I'm getting this properly).

[@bigphatkdawg]

I think he meant 0.075

[@harshitagarwal3557]

Thanks!!

[@chaitanyakmr]

Many Thanks

[@ALEXSHUNCAI]

Is the EMA formula here different than the EMA calculation in stock market price predication?

[@ragsanoor]

Thank you Sir

[@godseeker11]

thank you sir

[@mdshahidejaz]

I couldn't get alpha graph and it's importance