All models are wrong, but some are useful. S2F is useful in letting me think I can retire in 3 years when Bitcoin is worth $1.3 million. Sweet, delicious hopium.
@@rubr949 No one can time the market. The general sentiment is pretty bearish now. If you're going to pick an outlook, it's probably good to go agaisnt the grain.
I think the stock to flow model has no reason to exist anymore. If bitcoin doesnot go to 100k before the next halving then the stf model will go down in history as the model that made retail people poor in the 2021 bull run
How about a dampened stock-to-flow model? You multiply the stock to flow values by the values of a linear fit of the deflection plot (it is the trend line of the deflection). That way you'll get diminishing return into the stock to flow model.
Plan b’s original stock to flow model (published on his site) considered lost coins as removed from the supply. It predicted a price of 55k avg for this cycle, which is looking far more accurate than his modified version.
S2F does not account for larger market cap and overall maturing markets(diminished returns) I mean come on, Just look at the slope of the incline INCREASING as the price goes up. This is the opposite of what diminished returns and log regressions show. S2F has no regression... Just periodic moves from the halvings. It will become less and less relevant as BTC matures also.
Thanks for the video showing an interesting model! For 11:10 add me to the list of posters who doesn’t want $3M Bitcoin in three years, because something else in the economy would be very messed up in a world in which that happened. (I’m thinking hyperinflation or Web 3 bubble if we see Bitcoin at millions of dollars that soon.)
Wouldn't the stock need to be adjusted down to account for lost bitcoin? (Unfortunately it's impossible to know exactly, but I think that's how it could be made more accurate of a model.)
But I honestly still thinking this model is just wrong and nothing more. Either stoped "working" or were just mere coincidence. The deviation idea it's just trying so hard to keep it imo. What will happen when that deviation "trend" converge? We will just find another "useful" explanation for keep considering this model? If eventualy that upper line will avoid the 1 point of deviation whats even the point of it? its literally saying that this model is getting more and more wrong.
How do derivatives markets play into this? (i.e. we have futures ETFs on Bitcoin today and possibly other derivatives in the future). Does this essentially mean artificial supply, which would ultimately mean price trends under this model? Curious to hear your thoughts, Ben!
is it possible to take the projected downtrend of deflection and chart it over time against the predicted S2F in order to extrapolate what the price me be at a given time? hopefully this makes sense 😅
Love all of the information provided. But please reconsider where you place your PIP for these videos. Anywhere in the screen that doesn't cover vital information of the chart we are currently discussing. Please and thank you.
My first look at S2F model: 2012 line worked as support, 2015 was broken just a little bit, 2019 was broken completely, 2021-2022 most of the time spend much lower than this line. SO, what if now it will work as a resistance?
This current STF model vs deflection is rapidly becoming just what it is (a historical hindsight graph). As the price will spike higher than expected and follow a new trend which will mean a higher deflection it will set a new trend but will have similar diminishing deflection and returns as we have seen. The current STF has been fairly accurate up till now and served purpose mainly for the increasing 150million retail investors and some corporate companies to believe in its future price. However the new price spike will be due to the realisation of hyper inflation, ever more FOMO and 100s of millions more retail onboarding, FED Regulation, further Country adoption, ETFs, Institutional / Sovereign Wealth funds investing. This is as well as the 2024 halving and further Bitcoin scarcity. All will play their part in the inevitable 10x in 3 years from now and further 10x by 2030. Dont underestimate the growth still left in Bitcoin and it will be because of the reset of this STF chart. Ultimately its the miners who need the price increasing to offset the loss of less coin rewards and increased operating costs. My biggest fear for Bitcoins future is after next 5 to 10 years. If the price doesnt increase in line with the halving's many miners wont be able to sustain maintaining the Bitcoin Blockchain unless an additional payment structure is formed and how does that occur?
i think you are right,.. but,..( i mean to take him serious,.... stil, who remembers mcafee who said, it's not just BTC just going up in value, but also fiat money going down. ) what is inflation going to do? bitcoin could easily go up to a million by 2026, in my opinion. But indeed, i also still believe in the stock to flow model to have value. great analysis!
Great content today. I’ve always liked Plan B and value can be found in many analysis. He’s been incredibly scorned throughout the social media platforms. I’ve seen it everywhere.
Ben , tell Bitboy needs to search for the value... he just looks at the squiggly line and says the S2F is broken and we're not in lengthening cycles... For a guy that's been in the crypto space as long as he has ..you think he wouldn't be as naive as he is
Have you looked into what the mean price of bitcoin should be for the rest of this cycle if it is true that it should be 100 dollars over the whole cycle Ben?
So, perhaps if we fit a model to the deflection or deviations, and then add the result of that model to the S2F or to the logarithmic regression one, we could come up with another useful model, which perhaps would make more accurate predictions.
A nice blend of optimism and realism. $100k before the next halving. Bitcoin can do it! A couple years patience and a reward of a 2 or 3x. Sounds good to me. Thankyou for the content Ben and good luck with accumulating everyone. Bought some but hoping and waiting for the $30's.
Hopefully you enjoyed diving into the Stock-To-Flow model for Bitcoin!
You're the voice of reason in a crazy market. Keep it up.
clever analysis!
loved the rant
Very nice data mining. Interesting and useful. Big thanks! I’ll be waiting for the next one :))
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All models are wrong, but some are useful. S2F is useful in letting me think I can retire in 3 years when Bitcoin is worth $1.3 million. Sweet, delicious hopium.
Lol same, I’ve already started planning my retirement.
@@rubr949 oh you a bear?
@@rubr949 No one can time the market. The general sentiment is pretty bearish now. If you're going to pick an outlook, it's probably good to go agaisnt the grain.
I'm addicted to the hopium too. I work a minimum wage job but I will be rich someday!!! 😭🤑
You know Bitcoin is down bad when Ben brings up stock to flow
I think the stock to flow model has no reason to exist anymore. If bitcoin doesnot go to 100k before the next halving then the stf model will go down in history as the model that made retail people poor in the 2021 bull run
How about a dampened stock-to-flow model? You multiply the stock to flow values by the values of a linear fit of the deflection plot (it is the trend line of the deflection). That way you'll get diminishing return into the stock to flow model.
Hmm sounds great man, create it or suggest it to someone who creates those models and then we will see how that model worked
Plan Ben >> Plan B
Plan b’s original stock to flow model (published on his site) considered lost coins as removed from the supply. It predicted a price of 55k avg for this cycle, which is looking far more accurate than his modified version.
wasnt plan B calling for 200k btc in jan?
"All models are wrong"
Then his model was wrong by way too much
@@1337139 Sadly, he's still had one of the most accurate models outside of this year
S2F does not account for larger market cap and overall maturing markets(diminished returns) I mean come on, Just look at the slope of the incline INCREASING as the price goes up. This is the opposite of what diminished returns and log regressions show. S2F has no regression... Just periodic moves from the halvings. It will become less and less relevant as BTC matures also.
Thanks for the video showing an interesting model!
For 11:10 add me to the list of posters who doesn’t want $3M Bitcoin in three years, because something else in the economy would be very messed up in a world in which that happened. (I’m thinking hyperinflation or Web 3 bubble if we see Bitcoin at millions of dollars that soon.)
Wouldn't the stock need to be adjusted down to account for lost bitcoin? (Unfortunately it's impossible to know exactly, but I think that's how it could be made more accurate of a model.)
Good point
But I honestly still thinking this model is just wrong and nothing more. Either stoped "working" or were just mere coincidence. The deviation idea it's just trying so hard to keep it imo. What will happen when that deviation "trend" converge? We will just find another "useful" explanation for keep considering this model? If eventualy that upper line will avoid the 1 point of deviation whats even the point of it? its literally saying that this model is getting more and more wrong.
Probably your best video on Bitcoin and highlights your critical thinking 🧐 in a world of memery. Proud subscriber, and will continue to watch.
I don’t want BTC to go to a million in 3 years because I started very late 2020 and don’t have nearly enough. I want at least a full coin by then
How do derivatives markets play into this? (i.e. we have futures ETFs on Bitcoin today and possibly other derivatives in the future). Does this essentially mean artificial supply, which would ultimately mean price trends under this model? Curious to hear your thoughts, Ben!
I was wandering why BTC is pumping then I watched this video. It's all clear now.
is it possible to take the projected downtrend of deflection and chart it over time against the predicted S2F in order to extrapolate what the price me be at a given time? hopefully this makes sense 😅
Love all of the information provided. But please reconsider where you place your PIP for these videos. Anywhere in the screen that doesn't cover vital information of the chart we are currently discussing. Please and thank you.
Benjamin Cowen, you beast! You are the best, thanks for the great content.
Definitely extracted the value Ben ! Great vid👍👌
Great video. Tyvm Benjamin
Easily the brightest mind in all of crypto
A Video On How To Deal With Bear Markets Would Really Help.... But I Appreciate Your Content 👌🏾
Just don't sell during bears market (if you're bag holding) and DCA down in preparation for the next bull run. That's about it.
Can stock to flow model be adjusted for
illiquid supply?
Ben do like Coke or Pepsi more? Asking for my crypto buddies that are split on those lol
Will I have access to this “into the cryptoverse” tool if I subscribe?
so why not plot those actual projection trendlines back on the log price chart?
So deflection is diminishing returns on the lower bound of the channel
What does the Bitcoin halving mean?
What is the value? What is the bottom line…
Very interesting, thanks.
Are you going to update this now the model is broken?
You should have Gareth Soloway on you show !!
All models are good at some things and bad at the rest
My first look at S2F model: 2012 line worked as support, 2015 was broken just a little bit, 2019 was broken completely, 2021-2022 most of the time spend much lower than this line. SO, what if now it will work as a resistance?
That's a great flash you had there. Makes a lot of sense!
are stock to flow relate with inflation ??
This current STF model vs deflection is rapidly becoming just what it is (a historical hindsight graph). As the price will spike higher than expected and follow a new trend which will mean a higher deflection it will set a new trend but will have similar diminishing deflection and returns as we have seen. The current STF has been fairly accurate up till now and served purpose mainly for the increasing 150million retail investors and some corporate companies to believe in its future price.
However the new price spike will be due to the realisation of hyper inflation, ever more FOMO and 100s of millions more retail onboarding, FED Regulation, further Country adoption, ETFs, Institutional / Sovereign Wealth funds investing. This is as well as the 2024 halving and further Bitcoin scarcity. All will play their part in the inevitable 10x in 3 years from now and further 10x by 2030. Dont underestimate the growth still left in Bitcoin and it will be because of the reset of this STF chart.
Ultimately its the miners who need the price increasing to offset the loss of less coin rewards and increased operating costs. My biggest fear for Bitcoins future is after next 5 to 10 years. If the price doesnt increase in line with the halving's many miners wont be able to sustain maintaining the Bitcoin Blockchain unless an additional payment structure is formed and how does that occur?
i think you are right,.. but,..( i mean to take him serious,.... stil, who remembers mcafee who said, it's not just BTC just going up in value, but also fiat money going down. ) what is inflation going to do? bitcoin could easily go up to a million by 2026, in my opinion. But indeed, i also still believe in the stock to flow model to have value. great analysis!
Awesome stuff Ben! Thanks a ton!
Great content today. I’ve always liked Plan B and value can be found in many analysis. He’s been incredibly scorned throughout the social media platforms. I’ve seen it everywhere.
so create a deflection-adjusted s2f model?
I think that's just the logarithmic regression model
Ben , tell Bitboy needs to search for the value... he just looks at the squiggly line and says the S2F is broken and we're not in lengthening cycles... For a guy that's been in the crypto space as long as he has ..you think he wouldn't be as naive as he is
Great video! Love your work
RIP stock to flow model. It was useful until it just became
Flat out wrong.
Ben rocks.
Thanks, i love the content!
Have you looked into what the mean price of bitcoin should be for the rest of this cycle if it is true that it should be 100 dollars over the whole cycle Ben?
Hellooo
i love the cryptoverse and i stuck n stick to it fo eva eva
thanks Ben
Love your perspective Ben. You are one smart dude
Didn’t we hit the top of that channel in 2021
S2F meets Diminishing Returns May be the ultimate chart I feel that’s something that may not be factored in enough to it
I need to extract some loot and get it in my pocket.
Thanks Ben! Love STF
The model is clearly wrong as Gareth Soloway promised us 20k.😜
🔥🔥 Aesome analysis!
Whithout any doubt Ben emerged over Plan B with his model and interpretation of quantitave analysis
Spoken like a true data scientist.
Great video! Well explained THX!
Nice.
Nice
💪🚀
Thanks, Ben
gg
Love your videos
So, perhaps if we fit a model to the deflection or deviations, and then add the result of that model to the S2F or to the logarithmic regression one, we could come up with another useful model, which perhaps would make more accurate predictions.
Real talk
A nice blend of optimism and realism. $100k before the next halving. Bitcoin can do it! A couple years patience and a reward of a 2 or 3x. Sounds good to me. Thankyou for the content Ben and good luck with accumulating everyone. Bought some but hoping and waiting for the $30's.
Noti gang!!!
Yo