Damn the analytics. I like when players get contact on the ball. Keeps the ABs flowing. The all or nothing / high K rate guys is like the NBA and all the 3 pointers.
I think he will grow into being a better fielder/base runner. He’s stolen 9 bases this year, which isn’t anything really, but it’s like 3 times as many as he normally does. I think he is trying to develop another skill for the reason you bring up. Imagine if he can steal 20 bags a year, would make his value so much higher
The 2023 Padres were an aberration. They were bad in one-run games (8-23) and historically bad in extra inning games (2-12), yet, they were in the playoff race until the final weekend of the season! If they had won 3 more of those games they would have been in the playoffs. This year the numbers have flipped, no way they would equal the futility of last season, but I wasnt expecting them to be almost unbeatable in extras (9-2) and are 21-18 in 1-run games, all thanks to a better approach at the plate. Last year's team was looking to work walks and instead would look at strike 3 down the middle. This years team is about contact and making thing happen. I will never understand the mentality that Ks are better. "Less chance of hitting into DPs" true but also if you K you can't advance a runner. A K is an unproductive out. And like we saw in the video presentation: manufacturing runs > Ks all day Yes, Arraez is a slap/singles hitter, guess what? if you have RISP that's all you need. You know what wont score runs? striking out.
Imagínate! Un primer bate con casi 50 carreras impulsadas! Recuerdo un slugger, cuarto bate, con 8 jonrones en la temporada, promedio de 300 y 100 impulsadas! Qué pasaría con Luis en otro orden al bate, con gente en las bases?
If Arraez was in front of Stanton, Soto, judge, etc he’d get like 150+ runs a year😭 Arraez gets more valuable depending on who’s hitting behind him to drive him in when he gets on
the HOF benchmark for a one-tool player like Arraez is going to be 3,000 hits. He's under 1,000 at age 27 right now, which means he'll prob need around 10 more seasons of 200+ hits. Personally, I think it's unlikely
Normally I would agree with the 3,000 hits. But, in the modern era where only like 5 guys bat over .300 in the mlb per year, Arraez is gonna be the batting title winner or runner up every year. Because of that I simply don’t see him not winning at least 6 batting titles, already at 3 after this year. No one who has 5 or more batting titles is out of the hall of fame
3 batting titles after this year. Anyone with 5 or more batting titles is in the hall of fame. Track record would say he probably will end his career with at least 6+ so looking at that alone, it’s probably fair to talk about if he will be
Arraez is a punch and Judy hitter. Great bat control.....great eye at the plate. Right now, he's at 842 hits for his career. Getting 3 or 4 or 5 batting titles is a force multiplier for HOF consideration, but with his style of play, he's going to need 2500+ hits to get considered, IMO. I'm old enough to have seen Gwynn's Pads debut, so I'm little biased. In those days, batting champs were hitting like .350.
@@rickbase833 yeah I get what you’re saying for sure. His first and third batting titles are going to be relatively weak in terms of average. But both of those seasons saw a couple slumps with some injuries. Last year he was fully healthy and batted above .350. I think it will be significantly easier for him to win them as exemplified by two of them, but I don’t think it’s going to be regular for him to only hit like this, I think there’ll be plenty of years he’s just way above everyone else like he was last year. If Gwynn was in the league now he would’ve not only won 8 but probably like 12+, Arraez is going to have a lot more, hopefully they’re not just some low average ones all the time like you said
Tony Gwynn was great in his own way but Fernando Tatis jr, although unlikely to get to 3000 hits, will provide far more value than Tony Gwynn did. Putting the ball in play is only one small aspect of baseball.
Maybe. But then, Tony Gwynn's slugging numbers aren't far off from where Tatis's has been in the years following his suspension and injury. Tony Gwynn also stole a lot more bases than Tatis. Also, Tony Gwynn did it until he was 41.
Luis Arraez is overrated and im a Padres fan. He doesn't hit for power. He doesn't drive in runs. He doesn't have good base running. He doesn't walk. Not great defensively. Hes not even leading in batting average which is his only skill.
You say all that but let’s say the Padres sign him for a 5 year contract (probably what he will get in FA). He probably wins 3 out of 5 of those batting titles. Also the value in a contact guy who gets on base skyrockets with who is behind him. Padres have a lot of guys to drive him in. On the Padres he’s a very very valuable player. On the marlins like he was, with no one to drive him in so he has to hit as the clean up guy, not as valuable. If the Padres keep him, and y’all keep going to the postseason, you’ll love him by the end of his tenure
Arraez has elite contact skills but he is terrible at everything else. He plays DH because he is bad at defense, also no power, no speed. HOF track? Lmao
I mean he was a gold glove nominee at 1st base with the twins in 2022. So he’s not atrocious like people say. At 2nd he’s not that great, but at 1st he’s pretty good. 1st base isn’t a valuable defensive position though unless you’re like Anthony Rizzo good at picking. That and it’s a power position so having a great contact hitter at first is tough unless you have atypical power position players.
Arraez literally provides 0 value outside of hitting .300, which really isnt even that valuable. Sure, arraez is a good contact hitter, but he is far from an elite hitter
Damn the analytics. I like when players get contact on the ball. Keeps the ABs flowing.
The all or nothing / high K rate guys is like the NBA and all the 3 pointers.
This is the modern Tony Gwynn without the glove & stolen base.
His value is that he can put the ball in play & doesn’t strikeout.
I think he will grow into being a better fielder/base runner. He’s stolen 9 bases this year, which isn’t anything really, but it’s like 3 times as many as he normally does. I think he is trying to develop another skill for the reason you bring up. Imagine if he can steal 20 bags a year, would make his value so much higher
The 2023 Padres were an aberration. They were bad in one-run games (8-23) and historically bad in extra inning games (2-12), yet, they were in the playoff race until the final weekend of the season! If they had won 3 more of those games they would have been in the playoffs.
This year the numbers have flipped, no way they would equal the futility of last season, but I wasnt expecting them to be almost unbeatable in extras (9-2) and are 21-18 in 1-run games, all thanks to a better approach at the plate.
Last year's team was looking to work walks and instead would look at strike 3 down the middle. This years team is about contact and making thing happen.
I will never understand the mentality that Ks are better. "Less chance of hitting into DPs" true but also if you K you can't advance a runner. A K is an unproductive out. And like we saw in the video presentation: manufacturing runs > Ks all day
Yes, Arraez is a slap/singles hitter, guess what? if you have RISP that's all you need. You know what wont score runs? striking out.
Very well put!
MLB Network version of "keep your eye on the ball"
i wish we had Jeff Mcneill hitting like this, just making contact.
Yeah he has had an off year and now out injured I believe.
Imagínate! Un primer bate con casi 50 carreras impulsadas! Recuerdo un slugger, cuarto bate, con 8 jonrones en la temporada, promedio de 300 y 100 impulsadas! Qué pasaría con Luis en otro orden al bate, con gente en las bases?
Great piece - wish the NY Yanks recognized this aspect more!
If Arraez was in front of Stanton, Soto, judge, etc he’d get like 150+ runs a year😭 Arraez gets more valuable depending on who’s hitting behind him to drive him in when he gets on
@@stevenholmquist723 exactly right ! And what I was thinking !
Great breakdown. On another note, this tennis shoe deal with suits looks so lame.
Reynolds wearing those nikes with that suit is the real tragedy
the HOF benchmark for a one-tool player like Arraez is going to be 3,000 hits. He's under 1,000 at age 27 right now, which means he'll prob need around 10 more seasons of 200+ hits. Personally, I think it's unlikely
I disagree. You can still have contact with age. If he was a power hitter that he differentl
Normally I would agree with the 3,000 hits. But, in the modern era where only like 5 guys bat over .300 in the mlb per year, Arraez is gonna be the batting title winner or runner up every year. Because of that I simply don’t see him not winning at least 6 batting titles, already at 3 after this year. No one who has 5 or more batting titles is out of the hall of fame
If he gets 2600+ hits, he’s in the HOF
@@stevenholmquist723he'll win at least 10 easily
"People don't care about RBI's anymore" since when????
Isn't he like 27? Little early to start talking HOF. If he gets to 3000 hits, that's an automatic ticket punch.
3 batting titles after this year. Anyone with 5 or more batting titles is in the hall of fame. Track record would say he probably will end his career with at least 6+ so looking at that alone, it’s probably fair to talk about if he will be
Arraez is a punch and Judy hitter. Great bat control.....great eye at the plate. Right now, he's at 842 hits for his career. Getting 3 or 4 or 5 batting titles is a force multiplier for HOF consideration, but with his style of play, he's going to need 2500+ hits to get considered, IMO.
I'm old enough to have seen Gwynn's Pads debut, so I'm little biased. In those days, batting champs were hitting like .350.
@@rickbase833 yeah I get what you’re saying for sure. His first and third batting titles are going to be relatively weak in terms of average. But both of those seasons saw a couple slumps with some injuries. Last year he was fully healthy and batted above .350. I think it will be significantly easier for him to win them as exemplified by two of them, but I don’t think it’s going to be regular for him to only hit like this, I think there’ll be plenty of years he’s just way above everyone else like he was last year. If Gwynn was in the league now he would’ve not only won 8 but probably like 12+, Arraez is going to have a lot more, hopefully they’re not just some low average ones all the time like you said
He’s going to need 3000 hits at least.
Wonder how the Astros did it in 17
By beating the best
Reason number 7000 why the mariners will not win a WS with their current offense.....all Ks all the time
HoF track is wayyyyyyyyyy too early. If he gets that glove going though
Tony Gwynn was great in his own way but Fernando Tatis jr, although unlikely to get to 3000 hits, will provide far more value than Tony Gwynn did. Putting the ball in play is only one small aspect of baseball.
Maybe. But then, Tony Gwynn's slugging numbers aren't far off from where Tatis's has been in the years following his suspension and injury. Tony Gwynn also stole a lot more bases than Tatis. Also, Tony Gwynn did it until he was 41.
He’s a 🐓for skipping the second to last game 🤡
But weren't the padres resting a lot of their team those last 2 games anyways.
He's never had an OPS+ higher than 128. Stop it.
Good contact hitter but not even close to HOF.
Luis Arraez is overrated and im a Padres fan. He doesn't hit for power. He doesn't drive in runs. He doesn't have good base running. He doesn't walk. Not great defensively. Hes not even leading in batting average which is his only skill.
You say all that but let’s say the Padres sign him for a 5 year contract (probably what he will get in FA). He probably wins 3 out of 5 of those batting titles. Also the value in a contact guy who gets on base skyrockets with who is behind him. Padres have a lot of guys to drive him in. On the Padres he’s a very very valuable player. On the marlins like he was, with no one to drive him in so he has to hit as the clean up guy, not as valuable. If the Padres keep him, and y’all keep going to the postseason, you’ll love him by the end of his tenure
Arraez has elite contact skills but he is terrible at everything else. He plays DH because he is bad at defense, also no power, no speed.
HOF track? Lmao
I mean he was a gold glove nominee at 1st base with the twins in 2022. So he’s not atrocious like people say. At 2nd he’s not that great, but at 1st he’s pretty good. 1st base isn’t a valuable defensive position though unless you’re like Anthony Rizzo good at picking. That and it’s a power position so having a great contact hitter at first is tough unless you have atypical power position players.
First
Lucky guy
Arraez literally provides 0 value outside of hitting .300, which really isnt even that valuable. Sure, arraez is a good contact hitter, but he is far from an elite hitter
thats a crazy ass comment
😂😂😂 🤡🤡🤡
@-dlo-9417 sorry pal, but .746 OPS is NOT elite😭
@@alm5851 .746 OPS is not elite my brotha
Let’s see this guy hit like him.. haha
Nah ...
No.