Hi Patrick, can you cover the debt levels in G7 countries, both private and government. The Economist did an article on govts recently and it would be good to get your take
But if you look at the year by year graph of Mexico’s import from China… it’s almost as if Chinese goods were repackaged in Mexico before heading off to the intended buyer.
growing up on a ranch in California we had many Mexicans work for us over the years and they are honest, hardworking reliable people from my experience
support mexico from china ! 👍🇨🇳🇲🇽 thx to be part program of MADE IN CHINA 2025 > China aims to move away from being the "world's factory"-a producer of cheap louw-tech goods facilitated by low3r labour costs and supply chain advantages. The industrial policy aims to upgrade the manufacturing capabilities of Chinese industries, growing from labor-intensive workshops into a more technology-intensive powerhouse Made in China 2025's goals include increasing the Chinese-domestic content of core materials to 40 percent by 2020 and 70 percent by 2025. To help achieve independence from foreign suppliers, the initiative encourages increased production in high-tech products and services Chinese Companies Are Investing Billions in Mexico , Chinese firms are establishing factories that allow them to label goods “Made in Mexico,” then trucking products into the United States duty-free. lot mexican love china strategy as long they got lot job The interest of Chinese manufacturers in Mexico is part of MADE IN CHINA 2025 👍 🇨🇳🇲🇽
support mexico from china ! 👍🇨🇳🇲🇽 thx to be part program of MADE IN CHINA 2025 > China aims to move away from being the "world's factory"-a producer of cheap louw-tech goods facilitated by low3r labour costs and supply chain advantages. The industrial policy aims to upgrade the manufacturing capabilities of Chinese industries, growing from labor-intensive workshops into a more technology-intensive powerhouse Made in China 2025's goals include increasing the Chinese-domestic content of core materials to 40 percent by 2020 and 70 percent by 2025. To help achieve independence from foreign suppliers, the initiative encourages increased production in high-tech products and services Chinese Companies Are Investing Billions in Mexico , Chinese firms are establishing factories that allow them to label goods “Made in Mexico,” then trucking products into the United States duty-free. lot mexican love china strategy as long they got lot job The interest of Chinese manufacturers in Mexico is part of MADE IN CHINA 2025 👍 🇨🇳🇲🇽
😢😭😢😭finally, Im so tired of the US complaining and crying about the deficit for years. China also diversify "de couple" from the worthless USA paying with fiat worthless dollars. Made in Vietnam, Mexico, India....ALL Chinese corp relocation.
Look behind the trade numbers. China's trade with US has indeed come down; but China's trade with Vietnam and Mexico has shot up correspondingly. What is happening is that Vietnam and Mexico are acting as middlemen - importing huge amount from China, slapped on the "Made in Vietnam" and "Made in Mexico" labels, and re-export them to the US. So, the US ends up with Chinese products that are relabelled and pays a premium in the process. Clever.
What is more clever is the profits still goes back to China, make Mexico and Vietnam more dependent on China on supply chains and it also releases China's low skilled labor to focus on other labor intensive but higher valued industries such as rare earth processing.
@PhiloSurfer Your paranoic drivel doesn't recognize free trade agreements DON'T allow for simple re labelling There are minimums of value addition to count goods as manufacturing which qualifies for free trade So your "cleverness" is just the usual WASP sickness disguised as "national interest"
Seems only China has the intelligence to understand crypto mining does not contribute to the economy, other than consuming up obscene amount of electricity, which is bad for any country. Meanwhile some individuals make a lot of money without any products or services being created, and never have to pay any tax. Anyone understands the fundamentals of crypto currencies will know it is only good for black market and nothing else.
Once again you provide insights into current issues that I have not seen elsewhere. I have read or watch alot about Mexico economy benefiting from near shoring, but you are the first one to point out potential problems such as reliable electricity, water availability, and President Obrador. So once again, a thumbs up and thank you from me.
We have studied these problems in my classes of economics in an university in Monterrey, particularly, electricity is the most troublesome, most economists are not as optimistic about nearshoring as the media hypes about. We need a policy reform to improve economic competition, enviromental protection and above all a fiscal reform as there is almost no fiscal space left, and the spending with elderly is increasing and more fiscal spending in infraestructrue, healthcare, and education is desperately needed.
@@inspiredbynatureinspiredby5586 increasing business relationships could be the best way to break the cartels. Or empower them if it isn't handled well
If you educate yourself on NAFTA, now TRUMPS USMCA this has hurt and still hurts the American economy as well as middle class families. For trade to work you must even the playing field so to speak. Low wages,loss jobs, Americans unable to compete out sourcing jobs for slave labor. “O” Red states are trying to lower childrens age for work force to bring up household income ! O yes the CEO , they really love Mexico so much America is becoming Mexico.
@@inspiredbynatureinspiredby5586 Cartels do not target manufacturing, urban centers or tourism. They target cops, military, and other cartels Source: I'm Mexican. I live in a suburban middle class city where most of the population works high-skilled jobs. Only incidence of cartel violence was when Familia Michoacana threatened other meth sellers. That's all
Patrick. I keep forgetting about you. But every once in a while I'm reminded: you are one of the most astute macroeconomic analysts on YT - if not the most. Virtually no one is able to add "context" to data or information like you do. Thank you....
US is buying lots more from ASEAN (South East Asia countries like Vietnam and Indonesia etc). Many of those goods are actually by Chinese manufacturers who have set up transshipment outposts there. That's why trade between ASEAN and China has soared.
The question then: Are these Chinese manufacturers' profits being reinvested in Vietnam, Indonesia, etc to grow their economies? Or are they simply being returned to China.
@@sprague49 well, they pay local taxes as companies. They create local jobs, pay export duties, consume some local inputs and bring in hard foreign exchange for the local country . But they obviously also repatriate profits back to China. No different from any MNCs, including American ones.
Most companies aren’t Chinese tho and go look at the worlds largest and most profitable companies they are American ones. The US also produces most of what it needs in the US
One thing these videos rarely mention--Mexico already manufactures a lot and most of it is not from Chinese companies but European (particularly German and French), Japanese, and American companies. European and American companies have invested in Mexican manufacturing for over 70 years. At first to manufacture for the domestic market. But after the 1980s, and especially after NAFTA, more investment was made to manufacture for exporting. And it hasn't looked back. Mexico is the ONLY country in Latin America whose GDP is primarily composed of manufacturing instead of commodities. Even over the larger economy of Brazil. So it's not just repackaged products from China--Chinese companies in Mexico are less than 10% of multinational presence manufacturing in Mexico. About water--the city he cited suffering drought, the local government s now building an aqueduct from a large nearby lake that will ensure stable supply. Mexico is also the country in Latin America with the largest number of public works projects under construction with over 200 nationally. So it's been improving port, road, railroad, and airport infrastructure. The top half of Mexico already has a lot of infrastructure in terms of interstate highways. The south less, but it's improved. In fact comparing the Mexican port he cited to Los Angeles/Long Beach is a bit unfair, as Los Angeles/Long Beach is not just the largest and busiest port complex in the U.S., but the largest and busiest in the western hemisphere including the rest of North America and Europe (yes busier than Rotterdam). For comparison it's the largest and busiest port outside of East Asia which has the busiest ports in the world. Mexico also already has the largest number of engineering graduates in the Americas. Mexico is simply well positioned to become a larger exporter given the number of free trade agreements it has. And it's large young labor force still guarantees large productivity increases for years. Given its proximity to the U.S. it's simply a given Mexico will further manufacture for the U.S. and other countries. The 2023 figures for foreign direct investment to Mexico are not finalized but it already looks like it is record setting given the announcement of so many companies opening new facilities there. Keep in mind Mexico already manufactures more vehicles than the UK, France, and Spain (and EV manufacturing coming online in 2023). And may have already surpassed Italy as well as perhaps even Germany in 2023. In the last 20 years Mexico has become about a top 5 vehicle manufacturer globally. It also is a top electronics manufacturer and increasingly aerospace and biotech. Its economy has been doing better than most around the world (its currency the peso too). In fact of the OECD member of developed and industrialized countries, it had one of the highest GDP growth rates in 2022, 2023, and likely 2024. It's fluctuated between 3-5%. In the last quarter of 2022 it grew at near the same rate as China--China. In 2023, while some major G7 developed countries (particularly in Europe) have seen their economies shrinking, Mexico will be among the top OECD and G20 member countries to have seen the most GDP growth. 2024 looks to be the same.
Yeah The usmca is great It’s going make Mexico rich which will in turn make the u.s and Canada better off as well Cheaper faster shipping as well. On top of that cars will get cheaper and immigration issues will be lessened.
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support mexico from china ! 👍🇨🇳🇲🇽 thx to be part program of MADE IN CHINA 2025 > China aims to move away from being the "world's factory"-a producer of cheap louw-tech goods facilitated by low3r labour costs and supply chain advantages. The industrial policy aims to upgrade the manufacturing capabilities of Chinese industries, growing from labor-intensive workshops into a more technology-intensive powerhouse Made in China 2025's goals include increasing the Chinese-domestic content of core materials to 40 percent by 2020 and 70 percent by 2025. To help achieve independence from foreign suppliers, the initiative encourages increased production in high-tech products and services Chinese Companies Are Investing Billions in Mexico , Chinese firms are establishing factories that allow them to label goods “Made in Mexico,” then trucking products into the United States duty-free. lot mexican love china strategy as long they got lot job The interest of Chinese manufacturers in Mexico is part of MADE IN CHINA 2025 👍 🇨🇳🇲🇽
Maybe it’s finance vs engineering but when Mexican share of exports goes from 12 to 15 points, that’s a 25% increase. Not 3%. That’s a huge change for MX Love your content and your jacket.
I follow and love your videos. sadly, it's been a while since i visited it has been a very rough year... i am experiencing one of the toughest phases of my life... Lost a fortune lnvesting in emerging companies. Hopeful, for a turnaround.
While you watched this video China built 10 high speed trains to Asia, 3 new container ports, 100 ships, millions of computer high speed computer chips to run the world, new and better I phone, 10 freeways to Asia and Africa, a hundred bridges, 100 nuclear plants, 50 dams, so what did USA and Mexico do. Its a losers dream and a disgrace. This is the future America is creating.... THREADS
@@samsonsoturian6013 globalism > imperialism. they will never annex a territory again. its more profitable to make trade deals with 3rd world governments and have them manage their people than to take on a bunch of people and open them up to expensive u.s. social services
it hasnt so far. The growth has been going on for a while, and mexican culture and values are eroding yielding more and more really shitty materiliastic jerks ... but i guess that phenomenon is inseperable from econimic growth.
They have in some capacity. Immigration from Mexican nationals has dipped in favour of finding work in their home country. Immigration has increased due to other countries from further south facing political turmoil.
Walmart is the number one employer of workers in Mexico. The second is Cartels. I doubt that. There is way too much money to make off drugs, sex trafficking, organ trafficking, and people trafficking and the USA is their biggest buyer. The Americas must work together to solve these issues that bring down crime and the informal economy. This is the only way to make Mexico crow into a full first-world nation.
Mexico is getting there with their infrastructure. Mexico isn’t only in a good geopolitical zone but, also fast transportation and soon Naval Canal transportation for both Pacific Ocean and Mexico Golf ocean…
support mexico from china ! 👍🇨🇳🇲🇽 thx to be part program of MADE IN CHINA 2025 > China aims to move away from being the "world's factory"-a producer of cheap louw-tech goods facilitated by low3r labour costs and supply chain advantages. The industrial policy aims to upgrade the manufacturing capabilities of Chinese industries, growing from labor-intensive workshops into a more technology-intensive powerhouse Made in China 2025's goals include increasing the Chinese-domestic content of core materials to 40 percent by 2020 and 70 percent by 2025. To help achieve independence from foreign suppliers, the initiative encourages increased production in high-tech products and services Chinese Companies Are Investing Billions in Mexico , Chinese firms are establishing factories that allow them to label goods “Made in Mexico,” then trucking products into the United States duty-free. lot mexican love china strategy as long they got lot job The interest of Chinese manufacturers in Mexico is part of MADE IN CHINA 2025 👍 🇨🇳🇲🇽
There's another important connection between water supply and electricity. Most methods of power generation use a lot of fresh water. It's one of the major overall uses of fresh water, usually second behind only agriculture (albeit a rather distant second.)
That’s why the Dutch are against building huge data centers, like for Facebook, in a Dutch polder Zeewolde near Amsterdam. I think it is the second largest in Europe. They require a lot of fresh water and green produced electricity competing with the local need of citizens and business who also need cheap green electricity. I understand that Facebook wanted a more green label. The fresh water is produced with river water which needs to be treated and filtered against the polution which pops up more and more in our rivers mostly transported in from our neighboring countries. The treatment is expensive and require more tax money. Same for the green produced electricity. It cost tax money which companies like Facebook didn’t contribute too. It is suspected that local politicians were corrupted to require the permits to build there. The Dutch national policy is to locate the data center far away from the populated region to avoid these kind of unfair competition.
Did you check the trade between China and Mexico? It rose tremendously. It’s true that in the long run, more manufacturing will be done in Mexico, however, Mexico is simply rebranding china goods and send them to the US.
Super informative and entertaining! I've been following you for a while now and really like this simple no frills way of presenting the information and your dry humour 😂 Thanks for all your hardwork
support mexico from china ! 👍🇨🇳🇲🇽 thx to be part program of MADE IN CHINA 2025 > China aims to move away from being the "world's factory"-a producer of cheap louw-tech goods facilitated by low3r labour costs and supply chain advantages. The industrial policy aims to upgrade the manufacturing capabilities of Chinese industries, growing from labor-intensive workshops into a more technology-intensive powerhouse Made in China 2025's goals include increasing the Chinese-domestic content of core materials to 40 percent by 2020 and 70 percent by 2025. To help achieve independence from foreign suppliers, the initiative encourages increased production in high-tech products and services Chinese Companies Are Investing Billions in Mexico , Chinese firms are establishing factories that allow them to label goods “Made in Mexico,” then trucking products into the United States duty-free. lot mexican love china strategy as long they got lot job The interest of Chinese manufacturers in Mexico is part of MADE IN CHINA 2025 👍 🇨🇳🇲🇽
@@satriojumeneng7055check what the US imports from Mexico, its mostly vehicles from American companies like GM, oil, gas, precious metals and beer😂. China is losing just accept it
@@basiccoder2166it was sarcasm when Patrick called them an essential industry. If aliens came to earth and stole all of our wallet keys people would easily move on & those crypto bros would find new jobs, hopefully in an industry that actually creates a useful product. There is a demand for crypto but there is no underlying need for it, unlike things like food, water or shelter
Patrick, I have the attention span of a Michigan Gray Squirrel with anxiety issues and have little understanding of the most basic theories of economics however I found your explanations fascinating. Thank you for the presentation, the subject matter, and this channel. I am not sure how I arrived here but I am glad that I did.
support mexico from china ! 👍🇨🇳🇲🇽 thx to be part program of MADE IN CHINA 2025 > China aims to move away from being the "world's factory"-a producer of cheap louw-tech goods facilitated by low3r labour costs and supply chain advantages. The industrial policy aims to upgrade the manufacturing capabilities of Chinese industries, growing from labor-intensive workshops into a more technology-intensive powerhouse Made in China 2025's goals include increasing the Chinese-domestic content of core materials to 40 percent by 2020 and 70 percent by 2025. To help achieve independence from foreign suppliers, the initiative encourages increased production in high-tech products and services Chinese Companies Are Investing Billions in Mexico , Chinese firms are establishing factories that allow them to label goods “Made in Mexico,” then trucking products into the United States duty-free. lot mexican love china strategy as long they got lot job The interest of Chinese manufacturers in Mexico is part of MADE IN CHINA 2025 👍 🇨🇳🇲🇽
@@TAIWANPARTOFCHINA If this was so beneficial for China then we'd be hearing this about Vietnam. Mexico is an intermediary and takes part of those Chinese profits. You would also be teaching them to compete with China's current model if the 2025 goal is not reached. That is not a viable long term strategy, especially if the US investors fund R&D into it, making Mexico a viable peer competitor to China.
@@TAIWANPARTOFCHINAyou'll Never take Taiwan and your economy, along with the only thing that makes you useful, your population, will only strink from here
One point about "ports". Mexico really doesn't have ANY world class port options. However, they can do something China, Japan, Korea, etc cannot do... they can DRIVE TO THE USA! It's hard to overstate the value of low transport costs for Mexico. The US is large enough to consume just about everything they make for decades while they build up their own port options. And of course, there is NOTHING stopping them from driving Mexican goods to San Diego or Houston and shipping anything they want from a US port.
Regarding infrastructure and geography, Mexico is of course closer to the USA which helps in itself, but another thing that surprisingly many economists seem to underestimate is the amount of coastline and cities close to the coastline Mexico has and the value of that. The latter is true also for India, Vietnam, indonesia and some others. It true that China has invested a lot into infrastructure. However China also has to transport it goods further than most of it's competitors. That is a bigger disadvantage, I would argue than many realize.
On the coastline thing, that's true, although one somewhat strange thing about Mexico is the extent to which it's population is concentrated in the central highlands. It's got a population density which is almost inverse to what you might expect (cities clustering on the coast).
Almost the entire population of China is concentrated on the east. The manufacturing hubs of Guangdong ,the biggest one in China are between a short truck drive to one of the ports or an hour+ drive to the port.
It's not a big disadvantage because it is so damn cheap considering the distance - We are talking pennies. That doesn't compare to the 100s of billions required to build the insane manufacturing infrastructure in China. They can build whatever you want TO SPEC and get it to your door step quicker (+cheaper) than having it built at home.
@@merrymachiavelli2041 Actually Mexico benefits awesomely in modern times. The arable land is inland. The coast is barren. Which makes the coast perfect for factories, as they do not compete with farmland!
Great insights and analysis Patrick, you're both informative and entertaining! A question: Doesn't the US have to run continual trade deficients in order to supply the world with its reserve currency? Isn't re-shore/friend-shore production self-defeating? Smaller trade deficits->fewer USD available->stronger USD->cheaper imports for US consumers/less competitive exports? As your friend How Money Works put it, "part-time hedge fund manager and full-time RUclips comedian Patrick Boyle" 🤣
Selling components for products does not have the value add that selling the whole product would. We've basically locked them into the bottom of the value chain which means they can still produce many things but they do not receive the revenue.
After hiring, firing, and rubbing shoulders with many brilliant engineers in the Midwest manufacturing community I can say that these men (and some women) tend to be cautious and conservative people. They are the ones who are refusing to go and help build manufacturing muscle into a country that overtly calls us their enemy. These talented people's mates consider visiting an ever increasingly oppressive and dangerous place to be unwise while the thought of helping them to ultimately thrive and steal their markets is not beneficial to the safety of their children and grandchildren.
I met my wife's cousin in Pittsburgh. She visited her uncle who retired in China. He essentially took his knowledge in the coal industry in West Virginia and gave it to them. She said he's conservative as F.
And liberals are not moved by money? Decade after decade research proves liberals are selfish and only want to spend others' money & conservatives dig into their own pockets and generously give their own hard-earned money to others' needs.@@triarii9257
The U.S. should have always focused on trade deals with countries in the Western Hemisphere. Why ship across the largest ocean in the world when you can ship from Mexico southward.
support mexico from china ! 👍🇨🇳🇲🇽 thx to be part program of MADE IN CHINA 2025 > China aims to move away from being the "world's factory"-a producer of cheap louw-tech goods facilitated by low3r labour costs and supply chain advantages. The industrial policy aims to upgrade the manufacturing capabilities of Chinese industries, growing from labor-intensive workshops into a more technology-intensive powerhouse Made in China 2025's goals include increasing the Chinese-domestic content of core materials to 40 percent by 2020 and 70 percent by 2025. To help achieve independence from foreign suppliers, the initiative encourages increased production in high-tech products and services Chinese Companies Are Investing Billions in Mexico , Chinese firms are establishing factories that allow them to label goods “Made in Mexico,” then trucking products into the United States duty-free. lot mexican love china strategy as long they got lot job The interest of Chinese manufacturers in Mexico is part of MADE IN CHINA 2025 👍 🇨🇳🇲🇽
I'm not a finance guy, I barely understand any of this, but I have a few questions. Wouldn't relocating manufacturing to Mexico cause increase in cost of good and hence cost of product? The idea of manufacturing in self sufficient countries in terms of resources, is that cost of goods is lower. Not to mention how close is China to the destinations that buy goods. Another question about the import versus export thing mentioned in the video, Should countries have import and export equally balanced? Keeping wages down in the face of inflation is difficult to imagine when the government gets its securities and bonds and not invest in its population. I can't wrap my head around this.
I mean Mexico doesn't need many ports and long railroads. The factories are all along the US border. China will certainly still produce, but it will have a lot of competition. Other places are cheaper, are democracies, and don't steal property. I mean every problem that exists with Mexico exists in one way or another in China as well.
Bit weird Mexico didn't become the biggest trading partner of US to begin with. Usually the most important trading partners of countries are their neighbours.
remember when leaded gas poisoned an entire generation? when people are sick, they don crazy things. things like that are less of a problem well after they're solved and everyone's forgotten about the reason there was bs. redneckery was a big problem. even during covid, less people are dying every day.
That has always been the case minus the China factor. Prior to China's fall, Canada used to be the US's top trading partner. The same can be true of the majority of the Western countries, for example, China is their primary trade partner, its not North Africa or Eurasian countries like Turkey or Israel.
I was just thinking that. Looking at my country, the Netherlands, in the EU our direct neighbours are our greatest trading partner. Each adding to almost 20% of our GDP. It maybe that the almost 200 years of history between the US and Mexico plays a role in that.
I swore to dispose all products Made In China, so all electronic stuff like PCs, modems, printers and flash disks had to go. Then all electrical stuff like TVs, freezers, washing machines were thrown out. Today, I found that the insulation, roofing, carpets, blankets, sidings, tiles, wires, nails and screws were all Made In China. What else can I throw into the dumpster ?
The final conclusion is important. There will always be a nation which keep wages low in order to compete for foreign investment. And since a manufactoring company makes it's own decisions to maximise profits free-trade will remain a nice theory.
About time we do everything again with Mexico and Canada. Ludricous to have our industry miles away next to 2enemy countries, and inside 1. Glad everyhting is coming back home "Canad1, US Mexico". North America, assemble!
im in the ecological sciences by profession and never studied much economics in school, so I always learn something new about economics from these videos. one thing that keeps making me a little upset is the persistent theme that companies just put production wherever labor is cheapest. Makes me wonder if there's such a thing as a world where everyone earns a good living wage and we don't need cheap labor to support wealthy nations
Im also an ecologist - I keep wondering about the impacts on ecosystems of the pursuit of increasing consumption and trade. Humans only think of grabbing it all for themselves.
It's a supply/demand thing. The places that 'get exploited' are places where the people getting exploited either wouldn't have a job or would have an even worse job. It's why the labor is so cheap, tons of labor with few/no jobs. If those places fixed whatever issues were causing their economy to be weak, then these greedy companies wouldn't be able to find such cheap labor anymore, and the exploitation problem would go away or be extremely reduced.
It is called capitalism. There is such a thing earning a good wage and not be exploited as cheap labor... that is to develop your own technology and become a competitor against the more developed and wealthy nations... like what China did. Becoming a competitor is at the root of all the currently unpleasantness between the US and China.
Environmental scientist here. This is because in economic decision-making, the fundamental elements are materials, capital investment, and Labor. Each can be substituted for the other. Thus, what you’re wishing from money making private enterprise is not something that is achievable - at least not without exacting a taxing, crushing costly burden upon consumers. Imperialist countries did that and very few still do. The Soviets functioned this way, and what happened to the environment? Destruction! Much worse than capitalism could or does do.
But Chinese companies have set up factories in Mexico. Made in Mexico is probably the same as made in china. Same made in Vietnam and other southeast Asian countries.
Stocks are pretty unstable at the moment, but if you do the right math, you should be just fine. Bloomberg and other finance media have been recording cases of folks gaining over 250k just in a matter of weeks/couple months, so I think there are a lot of wealth transfer in this downtime if you know where to look.
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I'm studying for the CFA exams (I'm a candidate), and while studying and analyzing my economy (Mexico), I find a lot of weaknesses in the financial systems. I believe that a stronger securities market and government institutions would help boost the economy, and in my opinion, we need more finance professionals here, so the benefits of doing legal, high amounts of profit through efficient asset allocations, would outperform the people's need to take another paths to become wealthy. I really hope we don't miss this opportunity, it's our chance to stand out and become stronger than ever!
That’s some good news as China should not be too dependent on the US market as it has become unstable & a less reliable trading country. This dependency had caused Japan’s economy to suffer tremendously since the nineties when the U.S. had indirectly betrayed Japan’s reliance on the U.S. market. China must stay away from such mishaps and diversify its market more globally & expand its BRI projects more readily for developing economies. China can’t afford to have all the eggs in one basket , it’s necessary to look beyond the U.S..
If you dont like trade surplus nations, who will we ship our inflation to? If you cant ship your inflation (export USD, hence negative trade balance) when you print money, you will get hyperinflation. Exporting USD and getting relaitively cheap financing is how the US works
If Mexico did become America's primary manufacturer, some big potential side effects would be immigration reduction from the south and potentially a decline in American population. These could have cascading longer term impacts.
Recent data shows that migration from Mexico to the US is at an all time low. The US population will grow from migrants of other countries, like those in Central America or Africa. While Mexicans in the US are declining, there's all time record growth levels for Haitians, Nigerians, Guatemalans, etc. The US population will continue to grow no matter what
Thank you for the video and mentioning the EXTREME waste of crypto mining. Most people will have no idea how much power is wasted there but picture that the most essential resource water (yes not oil) takes the same amount energy 😢
You are not looking at this clearly, China is actually trying to decouple from the US so that any sanctions imposed would have no effect while still earning the profits of relocating manufacturing in Mexico.
@@rcbrascan China's exports were down 14.5% year to year in July and 8.8% in August, so your Chinese disinformation is wrong. China is losing export business at a high rate and these losses will continue.
@@rcbrascan China is certainly selling components to other countries like Vietnam and Mexico where the final assembly is done and then the profits are recognized outside China. This doesn't help China except for keeping a small piece of the profits from the components they sold. The smart Chinese companies, like Apple, have moved their headquarters to Singapore, Ireland or someplace else. China's exports will fall and keep falling for at least the next 30 years.
Perhaps this burgeoning trade relationship will cause both Mexico and the US to actually address the drug trade and the cartels in a serious way. In addition, lets not forget the immigration problem that Mexico is squarely in the middle of (although the illegal migration problem is not Mexican citizens). I think the trade relationship between the US and Mexico is already being significantly affected/limited by these problems..neither of which you mentioned directly (you indirectly mentioned these with a comment on Mexico's crime rate). The US inability to address its demand for illegal narcotics is ongoing (and not improving....Illegal drugs are expected to be one of the biggest threats to national security in 2024 as overdose deaths topped 100,000 in the last year, according to the Department of Homeland Security's annual threat study) and the problem impacts Mexico and Mexican-American relations in a number of areas. Just sayin'
Your videos are truly enjoyable to watch - clear, informative, balanced, and non-sensationalized. Reminds me of how the news was broadcast here in the US back in the day with the Big 3 news broadcasters, or how the BBC reports global news. I am a happy new subscriber. 👍
Imagine of in the 90s manufacturing was moved to Mexico and the rest of Latin America instead of communist China, imagine how much more stable, prosperous, and culturally cohesive the entire American continent would be.
This could end up helping not just the US, but the entire continent. Canada and US manufacturers will have access to closer markets decreasing fuel costs, and as Mexico increases their income they will in turn be able to afford more goods from the South America and smaller amounts of high end manufacturing products from the US. The biggest issue is gonna be the cartels.
North America has had NAFTA for decades and what you just described had never happened. Mexico is booming now only because Chinese manufacturers are shifting their supply chains to Mexico.
I remember back in 1998-2002 we went thru a shift from US to Mexico - then we moved our production to China. Full circle and now back to Mexico. (Same issues (today) in 2000 in Mexico why we left) . :)
It seems to me that there is no one single nation state that can replace China in manufacturing goods. In fact ,it is not fair for any single nation to have that roll. Much better to diversify to as many nations as possible .create as much competition as we can to get going to produce the best products possible.
The real fact is that the US is a lot more dependent on China that the years before. Even with tariffs, more goods are imported from China, with the added cost passed on to the consumers. Trade with China between Vietnam and Mexico has increased over 70% and 40% respectively. Really low end China manufacturers has moved to these countries to tap into their low skilled and low cost labor. Probably over 70% of Mexico and Vietnam export to US are via Chinese manufacturers. The big plus is now Mexicans can improve their lives with these new jobs within and not need to cross US border illegally!
Another great video, I'm really like the thorough work you have spent on research and the pedagogic way you explain. And your great portion on sarcasm. Sláinte
Cheers from México guys. Love this channel. Boyle hit it right in the nail concerning the varios logistical problems México is facing due to this new influx of investing and production. We can only hope they are solved in the next presidential term since the actual president amlo doesnt really care about investment.
He does care. That's why we have upgraded refineries, a new refinery, and two new railways. 200 billion USD were used to rescue the banks in the 90's turning private debt into public debt. How does that help productivity? To my knowledge that was the largest robbery in world history.
I worked with Mexicans here in the US. They are very hard workers. I respect them. Mexico only needs to lose its communist socialist mentality that plagues majority of Latin American nations.
@@adelatorremothelet watch the video lol. It speaks for itself. And boyle isnt politicised. Crumbling infrastructure, lack of energy production and investment, insecurity, corruption etc. I can see the amlovers even reach channels such as these.
@PAPO9609 Boyle might not be political. Yet, he seems to be ignoring the facts: FACT : 200 billions were squandered in bank rescue. FACT : minimum wage raises were kept below the inflation rate during 4 decades FACT : 80 billion were pardoned in taxes to large corporations FACT: No refineries were built in 4 decades. FACT: No new railways had been built since 1910. No wonder we have a crumbling infrastructure... it is extremely cynical to blame it in the incumbent president.
@@PAPO9609 "Boyle isnt politicised" -proceeds to peddle whatever narrative the economist or neoliberal peddlers have. if amlo didnt give you 5000 tax breaks and 1000 concessions, he's anti-business. people like you haven't learned what this did to cities like ciudad juarez with the sweatshops or maquiladoras. learn your stuff
Come on guys. Isn't it obvious? China simply ship their products to Mexico and re-package it for US market. Just think through it ... what is the Mexico have in term of manufacturing eco-system that could sustain "being the biggest trading partner" with US? Same for Vietnam. They basically package Chinese products and ship to US. The trucks cross the China and Vietnam border carrying almost-complete products are outrageously long.
One of the best aspects of Mexico for manufacturing is its demographics, which should keep labor rates lower long term than pretty much all of the competitors (especially china)
I would have to imagine that while the US China trade links still exist with these developments, it will give opportunities for others to undercut china to sever those ties over time whereas maybe that was not as much of an option before.
I don't think you understand China is exporting to the US through a proxy like Mexico and other countries like Vietnam and Bangladesh Just look at who owns the factory and you will know the Chinese are a few steps ahead of the USA lol
I run a consulting business in the GCC. Our clients are large Chinese companies seeking to relocate their manufacturing assets here. Key drivers are removal of subsidies in China, high labour costs in China and FTA vs tarriffs. We are extremely busy!
The biggest question is though whether the trade deficit has become smaller or the prices of goods have changed for the better. I think the prices only became higher for Americans in order to participate in this political geopolitical battle.
And what will the US do? Export democracy? 😂 No, seriously, Mexico is doing good by taking this "golden opportunity" with a grain of salt. There's a reason why Kissinger quotes are famous even when the guy is not.
You need to understand inner mexico and mexico's recent history with rampant cleptocracy neoliberalism and PRIAN - then you will probably understand why AMLO does what he does.
Mexico's president is doing very important infrastructure projects to receive a lot of foreign investment and it's working very well. He is not antobusiness, he just forced a lot of businesses that were not paying their taxes to do it and now they speak bad about the administration.
The benifits of having Mexico do many of US trade deficits will help reduce border crossing and even make more Mexicans stay as jobs open. Makes everything beneficial for both side. And also taming a wild war mongering panda.
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Hongkong country ㊗️㊗️㊗️
Hi Patrick, can you cover the debt levels in G7 countries, both private and government. The Economist did an article on govts recently and it would be good to get your take
Yes. But china just opened 40 billion worth of factories in Mexico in the last 3 years... Mexico assembles it and sends to usa
Ross Perot was correct because I got an education from books and excellent teachers as Patrick 👍😁
The only thing the US exports now is weapons and debt.
But if you look at the year by year graph of Mexico’s import from China… it’s almost as if Chinese goods were repackaged in Mexico before heading off to the intended buyer.
But if it means Mexico profits from it more than China I'm all for it.
That’s fine,
as long as supply chains is moved from China less profit & unemployment for them until things settle for long term.
Not to mention the import of precursor chemicals for fentanyl from China to the Mexican cartels.
Mexico on the up and up, together with the US we can finally be free from China.
Yes the Americans just have to pay more for the same good.😂
growing up on a ranch in California we had many Mexicans work for us over the years and they are honest, hardworking reliable people from my experience
Soon we are gonna run out of Mexicans too as they will no longer have to leave their home in search for economic opportunities
geronimo would like to have a word
@@gh8066 - LoL. Well...maybe not "all" of them.
support mexico from china ! 👍🇨🇳🇲🇽 thx to be part program of MADE IN CHINA 2025 > China aims to move away from being the "world's factory"-a producer of cheap louw-tech goods facilitated by low3r labour costs and supply chain advantages. The industrial policy aims to upgrade the manufacturing capabilities of Chinese industries, growing from labor-intensive workshops into a more technology-intensive powerhouse
Made in China 2025's goals include increasing the Chinese-domestic content of core materials to 40 percent by 2020 and 70 percent by 2025. To help achieve independence from foreign suppliers, the initiative encourages increased production in high-tech products and services
Chinese Companies Are Investing Billions in Mexico , Chinese firms are establishing factories that allow them to label goods “Made in Mexico,” then trucking products into the United States duty-free. lot mexican love china strategy as long they got lot job
The interest of Chinese manufacturers in Mexico is part of MADE IN CHINA 2025 👍 🇨🇳🇲🇽
You were using almost slave-labour... I wish mexican people rose in arms, but that's why you brainwashed them :(
Mexico has been the USA's biggest trade partner for a while now. We just haven't been counting illegitimate businesses 😂
IYKYK 😅
USA: Decoupling and de-risking with China.
China: Well, you do it by yourself unilaterally. Dont blame me.
😂😂😂😂😂
support mexico from china ! 👍🇨🇳🇲🇽 thx to be part program of MADE IN CHINA 2025 > China aims to move away from being the "world's factory"-a producer of cheap louw-tech goods facilitated by low3r labour costs and supply chain advantages. The industrial policy aims to upgrade the manufacturing capabilities of Chinese industries, growing from labor-intensive workshops into a more technology-intensive powerhouse
Made in China 2025's goals include increasing the Chinese-domestic content of core materials to 40 percent by 2020 and 70 percent by 2025. To help achieve independence from foreign suppliers, the initiative encourages increased production in high-tech products and services
Chinese Companies Are Investing Billions in Mexico , Chinese firms are establishing factories that allow them to label goods “Made in Mexico,” then trucking products into the United States duty-free. lot mexican love china strategy as long they got lot job
The interest of Chinese manufacturers in Mexico is part of MADE IN CHINA 2025 👍 🇨🇳🇲🇽
😢😭😢😭finally, Im so tired of the US complaining and crying about the deficit for years. China also diversify "de couple" from the worthless USA paying with fiat worthless dollars. Made in Vietnam, Mexico, India....ALL Chinese corp relocation.
😂👍
Look behind the trade numbers. China's trade with US has indeed come down; but China's trade with Vietnam and Mexico has shot up correspondingly. What is happening is that Vietnam and Mexico are acting as middlemen - importing huge amount from China, slapped on the "Made in Vietnam" and "Made in Mexico" labels, and re-export them to the US. So, the US ends up with Chinese products that are relabelled and pays a premium in the process. Clever.
What is more clever is the profits still goes back to China, make Mexico and Vietnam more dependent on China on supply chains and it also releases China's low skilled labor to focus on other labor intensive but higher valued industries such as rare earth processing.
That way the US is building up not just supporting China but helping to build up the economies of Vietnam and mexico. Wealth distribution
That's why Biden is recruiting Vietnam to supersede China.
If Vietnam can manufacture the parts, why importing them from China ?
@@rcbrascan
China's people lose their jobs. Biden is recruiting Vietnam & Mexico to be independent of China. It takes some time.
@PhiloSurfer Your paranoic drivel doesn't recognize free trade agreements DON'T allow for simple re labelling
There are minimums of value addition to count goods as manufacturing which qualifies for free trade
So your "cleverness" is just the usual WASP sickness disguised as "national interest"
"Essential industries like crypto mining.."
Good one Pat! 😂😂😂
I was looking to see if someone had commented on that 🤣🤣🤣🤣. I just love ❤️ it. 😊
😂
😂🤣
That one actually got me to laugh out loud. His delivery is just so perfect
Seems only China has the intelligence to understand crypto mining does not contribute to the economy, other than consuming up obscene amount of electricity, which is bad for any country. Meanwhile some individuals make a lot of money without any products or services being created, and never have to pay any tax. Anyone understands the fundamentals of crypto currencies will know it is only good for black market and nothing else.
Once again you provide insights into current issues that I have not seen elsewhere. I have read or watch alot about Mexico economy benefiting from near shoring, but you are the first one to point out potential problems such as reliable electricity, water availability, and President Obrador. So once again, a thumbs up and thank you from me.
We have studied these problems in my classes of economics in an university in Monterrey, particularly, electricity is the most troublesome, most economists are not as optimistic about nearshoring as the media hypes about. We need a policy reform to improve economic competition, enviromental protection and above all a fiscal reform as there is almost no fiscal space left, and the spending with elderly is increasing and more fiscal spending in infraestructrue, healthcare, and education is desperately needed.
Mexico is importing from China to export to the U.S. Y’ALL ARE DELUSIONAL. PAY HIGHER PREMIUM FOR THE SAME PRODUCTS. GOOD FOR INFLATION.
Here no one is loser except US citizen...they have to pay extra for the person who play as a middle man.. only fools think that they're smart😅
Mexican electricity grid is definitely less volatile than CCP China 🙂
Nice hat!
As a American who loves Mexico I would love nothing more for us to be trading partners
Mexico isn't a good trading partner either especially when all the cartels.
@@inspiredbynatureinspiredby5586 right, there are cartels, but al least the Mexican gov does not want to invade and defeat US. Yet.
@@inspiredbynatureinspiredby5586 increasing business relationships could be the best way to break the cartels. Or empower them if it isn't handled well
If you educate yourself on NAFTA, now TRUMPS USMCA this has hurt and still hurts the American economy as well as middle class families. For trade to work you must even the playing field so to speak. Low wages,loss jobs, Americans unable to compete out sourcing jobs for slave labor. “O” Red states are trying to lower childrens age for work force to bring up household income ! O yes the CEO , they really love Mexico so much America is becoming Mexico.
@@inspiredbynatureinspiredby5586 Cartels do not target manufacturing, urban centers or tourism. They target cops, military, and other cartels
Source: I'm Mexican. I live in a suburban middle class city where most of the population works high-skilled jobs. Only incidence of cartel violence was when Familia Michoacana threatened other meth sellers. That's all
Patrick. I keep forgetting about you. But every once in a while I'm reminded: you are one of the most astute macroeconomic analysts on YT - if not the most. Virtually no one is able to add "context" to data or information like you do. Thank you....
STOP damaging your brain and memory with Booze, Drugs, & Cell Phone Addiction.
US is buying lots more from ASEAN (South East Asia countries like Vietnam and Indonesia etc). Many of those goods are actually by Chinese manufacturers who have set up transshipment outposts there. That's why trade between ASEAN and China has soared.
The question then:
Are these Chinese manufacturers' profits being reinvested in Vietnam, Indonesia, etc to grow their economies? Or are they simply being returned to China.
@@sprague49those countries get the tax and some job opportunity for the locals.
@@sprague49 Good point! I guess it benefits all the countries involved.
@@sprague49 well, they pay local taxes as companies. They create local jobs, pay export duties, consume some local inputs and bring in hard foreign exchange for the local country . But they obviously also repatriate profits back to China. No different from any MNCs, including American ones.
Most companies aren’t Chinese tho and go look at the worlds largest and most profitable companies they are American ones. The US also produces most of what it needs in the US
One thing these videos rarely mention--Mexico already manufactures a lot and most of it is not from Chinese companies but European (particularly German and French), Japanese, and American companies. European and American companies have invested in Mexican manufacturing for over 70 years. At first to manufacture for the domestic market. But after the 1980s, and especially after NAFTA, more investment was made to manufacture for exporting.
And it hasn't looked back.
Mexico is the ONLY country in Latin America whose GDP is primarily composed of manufacturing instead of commodities. Even over the larger economy of Brazil. So it's not just repackaged products from China--Chinese companies in Mexico are less than 10% of multinational presence manufacturing in Mexico.
About water--the city he cited suffering drought, the local government s now building an aqueduct from a large nearby lake that will ensure stable supply.
Mexico is also the country in Latin America with the largest number of public works projects under construction with over 200 nationally. So it's been improving port, road, railroad, and airport infrastructure. The top half of Mexico already has a lot of infrastructure in terms of interstate highways. The south less, but it's improved. In fact comparing the Mexican port he cited to Los Angeles/Long Beach is a bit unfair, as Los Angeles/Long Beach is not just the largest and busiest port complex in the U.S., but the largest and busiest in the western hemisphere including the rest of North America and Europe (yes busier than Rotterdam). For comparison it's the largest and busiest port outside of East Asia which has the busiest ports in the world.
Mexico also already has the largest number of engineering graduates in the Americas. Mexico is simply well positioned to become a larger exporter given the number of free trade agreements it has.
And it's large young labor force still guarantees large productivity increases for years. Given its proximity to the U.S. it's simply a given Mexico will further manufacture for the U.S. and other countries.
The 2023 figures for foreign direct investment to Mexico are not finalized but it already looks like it is record setting given the announcement of so many companies opening new facilities there. Keep in mind Mexico already manufactures more vehicles than the UK, France, and Spain (and EV manufacturing coming online in 2023). And may have already surpassed Italy as well as perhaps even Germany in 2023. In the last 20 years Mexico has become about a top 5 vehicle manufacturer globally. It also is a top electronics manufacturer and increasingly aerospace and biotech.
Its economy has been doing better than most around the world (its currency the peso too). In fact of the OECD member of developed and industrialized countries, it had one of the highest GDP growth rates in 2022, 2023, and likely 2024. It's fluctuated between 3-5%. In the last quarter of 2022 it grew at near the same rate as China--China.
In 2023, while some major G7 developed countries (particularly in Europe) have seen their economies shrinking, Mexico will be among the top OECD and G20 member countries to have seen the most GDP growth. 2024 looks to be the same.
Yep, mexico is in a good spot.
Someone informed
Yeah
The usmca is great
It’s going make Mexico rich which will in turn make the u.s and Canada better off as well
Cheaper faster shipping as well. On top of that cars will get cheaper and immigration issues will be lessened.
And Mexico's GDP is about the same as Russia ,Spain, or Italy.
Wow! You are well informed. I am glag you clarify much of this video.
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I like men
“Essential industries like crypto mining”. I love it
Subtle humor at its best.
support mexico from china ! 👍🇨🇳🇲🇽 thx to be part program of MADE IN CHINA 2025 > China aims to move away from being the "world's factory"-a producer of cheap louw-tech goods facilitated by low3r labour costs and supply chain advantages. The industrial policy aims to upgrade the manufacturing capabilities of Chinese industries, growing from labor-intensive workshops into a more technology-intensive powerhouse
Made in China 2025's goals include increasing the Chinese-domestic content of core materials to 40 percent by 2020 and 70 percent by 2025. To help achieve independence from foreign suppliers, the initiative encourages increased production in high-tech products and services
Chinese Companies Are Investing Billions in Mexico , Chinese firms are establishing factories that allow them to label goods “Made in Mexico,” then trucking products into the United States duty-free. lot mexican love china strategy as long they got lot job
The interest of Chinese manufacturers in Mexico is part of MADE IN CHINA 2025 👍 🇨🇳🇲🇽
@@TAIWANPARTOFCHINA your economy is in the toilet, and no taiwan is not part of china. deal with it.
Maybe it’s finance vs engineering but when Mexican share of exports goes from 12 to 15 points, that’s a 25% increase. Not 3%. That’s a huge change for MX
Love your content and your jacket.
If and only if the total important stays the time (but yes)
I follow and love your videos. sadly, it's been a while since i visited it has been a very rough year... i am experiencing one of the toughest phases of my life... Lost a fortune lnvesting in emerging companies. Hopeful, for a turnaround.
Investing so much in emerging companies is a horrible decision. BTW, I commend Gary's trading pattern too. Different perspective, different technique
cringe ahh bots
Who tf doesn't know Gary Joe Wilde? He mentored many reputable pros here.
"Mexico has the strongest performing currency so far this year." AWESOME. Or as we should be saying, ASOMBROSO.
All fiat currencies are trash.😂
While you watched this video China built 10 high speed trains to Asia, 3 new container ports, 100 ships, millions of computer high speed computer chips to run the world, new and better I phone, 10 freeways to Asia and Africa, a hundred bridges, 100 nuclear plants, 50 dams, so what did USA and Mexico do. Its a losers dream and a disgrace. This is the future America is creating.... THREADS
Crypto is so good that you cant even order a pizza with that
paper fiat is way better than crypto fiat by far for now
@@rightsdontcomewithpermits7073A crypto bro... In 2023? Nice
That is tremendous news. A stronger, richer Mexico would be great news for America.
And one liable to become annexed by the US.
At least el Norte, anyway
@@samsonsoturian6013Lol, the US has no interest in annexing any parts of Mexico.
@@samsonsoturian6013 Considering Canada is still there, I'd say you are completely and utterly delusional.
@@samsonsoturian6013 globalism > imperialism. they will never annex a territory again. its more profitable to make trade deals with 3rd world governments and have them manage their people than to take on a bunch of people and open them up to expensive u.s. social services
@@samsonsoturian6013You're really smart.
Hope these changes help Mexico to overcome their problems and offer their people a much better life.
it hasnt so far. The growth has been going on for a while, and mexican culture and values are eroding yielding more and more really shitty materiliastic jerks ... but i guess that phenomenon is inseperable from econimic growth.
Mexican had suffered humiliation under the hands of the America is teaming up with China for revenge 😅
They have in some capacity. Immigration from Mexican nationals has dipped in favour of finding work in their home country. Immigration has increased due to other countries from further south facing political turmoil.
Walmart is the number one employer of workers in Mexico. The second is Cartels. I doubt that. There is way too much money to make off drugs, sex trafficking, organ trafficking, and people trafficking and the USA is their biggest buyer. The Americas must work together to solve these issues that bring down crime and the informal economy. This is the only way to make Mexico crow into a full first-world nation.
Mexico is getting there with their infrastructure. Mexico isn’t only in a good geopolitical zone but, also fast transportation and soon Naval Canal transportation for both Pacific Ocean and Mexico Golf ocean…
Bro Mexico is about to be invavded by US special operations. How is that good ?
Naval canal soon 😂. Pobre chairo.
You're absolutely brilliant Patrick. I love the spot on insights you deliver, post after post.
support mexico from china ! 👍🇨🇳🇲🇽 thx to be part program of MADE IN CHINA 2025 > China aims to move away from being the "world's factory"-a producer of cheap louw-tech goods facilitated by low3r labour costs and supply chain advantages. The industrial policy aims to upgrade the manufacturing capabilities of Chinese industries, growing from labor-intensive workshops into a more technology-intensive powerhouse
Made in China 2025's goals include increasing the Chinese-domestic content of core materials to 40 percent by 2020 and 70 percent by 2025. To help achieve independence from foreign suppliers, the initiative encourages increased production in high-tech products and services
Chinese Companies Are Investing Billions in Mexico , Chinese firms are establishing factories that allow them to label goods “Made in Mexico,” then trucking products into the United States duty-free. lot mexican love china strategy as long they got lot job
The interest of Chinese manufacturers in Mexico is part of MADE IN CHINA 2025 👍 🇨🇳🇲🇽
Chinese bots out in force but low quality as always.
Taiwan is an independent country, comrade 🇹🇼
There's another important connection between water supply and electricity. Most methods of power generation use a lot of fresh water. It's one of the major overall uses of fresh water, usually second behind only agriculture (albeit a rather distant second.)
That’s why the Dutch are against building huge data centers, like for Facebook, in a Dutch polder Zeewolde near Amsterdam. I think it is the second largest in Europe. They require a lot of fresh water and green produced electricity competing with the local need of citizens and business who also need cheap green electricity. I understand that Facebook wanted a more green label. The fresh water is produced with river water which needs to be treated and filtered against the polution which pops up more and more in our rivers mostly transported in from our neighboring countries. The treatment is expensive and require more tax money. Same for the green produced electricity. It cost tax money which companies like Facebook didn’t contribute too. It is suspected that local politicians were corrupted to require the permits to build there. The Dutch national policy is to locate the data center far away from the populated region to avoid these kind of unfair competition.
Did you check the trade between China and Mexico? It rose tremendously. It’s true that in the long run, more manufacturing will be done in Mexico, however, Mexico is simply rebranding china goods and send them to the US.
Super informative and entertaining! I've been following you for a while now and really like this simple no frills way of presenting the information and your dry humour 😂 Thanks for all your hardwork
Thanks!
If this trend continues this might be the start of something bigger changes than anyone expects
Why do u support communism?
support mexico from china ! 👍🇨🇳🇲🇽 thx to be part program of MADE IN CHINA 2025 > China aims to move away from being the "world's factory"-a producer of cheap louw-tech goods facilitated by low3r labour costs and supply chain advantages. The industrial policy aims to upgrade the manufacturing capabilities of Chinese industries, growing from labor-intensive workshops into a more technology-intensive powerhouse
Made in China 2025's goals include increasing the Chinese-domestic content of core materials to 40 percent by 2020 and 70 percent by 2025. To help achieve independence from foreign suppliers, the initiative encourages increased production in high-tech products and services
Chinese Companies Are Investing Billions in Mexico , Chinese firms are establishing factories that allow them to label goods “Made in Mexico,” then trucking products into the United States duty-free. lot mexican love china strategy as long they got lot job
The interest of Chinese manufacturers in Mexico is part of MADE IN CHINA 2025 👍 🇨🇳🇲🇽
The trade deficit to the US keeps rocketing ..... The Chinese just opened factories in Mexico.
Mexico sells you refitted Chinese products
@@satriojumeneng7055check what the US imports from Mexico, its mostly vehicles from American companies like GM, oil, gas, precious metals and beer😂. China is losing just accept it
"essential industries like crypto-mining" - ouch
Why "ouch"?
@@basiccoder2166because it's not essential.
@@basiccoder2166it was sarcasm when Patrick called them an essential industry. If aliens came to earth and stole all of our wallet keys people would easily move on & those crypto bros would find new jobs, hopefully in an industry that actually creates a useful product. There is a demand for crypto but there is no underlying need for it, unlike things like food, water or shelter
because it's the least essential industry there is
Patrick, I have the attention span of a Michigan Gray Squirrel with anxiety issues and have little understanding of the most basic theories of economics however I found your explanations fascinating. Thank you for the presentation, the subject matter, and this channel. I am not sure how I arrived here but I am glad that I did.
Every bad thing mentioned about Mexico in 2023 would have been the same thing businessmen would have said about China in 1983.
As a Mexico-based company... we happy :)
Good.
Loving the reshoring of industries to the Americas. We truly can just be all on our own in this hemisphere - and get those Mexicanos some agua !
support mexico from china ! 👍🇨🇳🇲🇽 thx to be part program of MADE IN CHINA 2025 > China aims to move away from being the "world's factory"-a producer of cheap louw-tech goods facilitated by low3r labour costs and supply chain advantages. The industrial policy aims to upgrade the manufacturing capabilities of Chinese industries, growing from labor-intensive workshops into a more technology-intensive powerhouse
Made in China 2025's goals include increasing the Chinese-domestic content of core materials to 40 percent by 2020 and 70 percent by 2025. To help achieve independence from foreign suppliers, the initiative encourages increased production in high-tech products and services
Chinese Companies Are Investing Billions in Mexico , Chinese firms are establishing factories that allow them to label goods “Made in Mexico,” then trucking products into the United States duty-free. lot mexican love china strategy as long they got lot job
The interest of Chinese manufacturers in Mexico is part of MADE IN CHINA 2025 👍 🇨🇳🇲🇽
@@TAIWANPARTOFCHINA If this was so beneficial for China then we'd be hearing this about Vietnam. Mexico is an intermediary and takes part of those Chinese profits. You would also be teaching them to compete with China's current model if the 2025 goal is not reached. That is not a viable long term strategy, especially if the US investors fund R&D into it, making Mexico a viable peer competitor to China.
@@TAIWANPARTOFCHINAyou'll Never take Taiwan and your economy, along with the only thing that makes you useful, your population, will only strink from here
@@enduser8410 The trade data between China and Mexico would also shed some lights on this.
agreed
One point about "ports". Mexico really doesn't have ANY world class port options. However, they can do something China, Japan, Korea, etc cannot do... they can DRIVE TO THE USA!
It's hard to overstate the value of low transport costs for Mexico. The US is large enough to consume just about everything they make for decades while they build up their own port options. And of course, there is NOTHING stopping them from driving Mexican goods to San Diego or Houston and shipping anything they want from a US port.
Fantastic news!
"essential industries like crypto mining" Sentences like that truly are just *chefs kiss* 13:00
Regarding infrastructure and geography, Mexico is of course closer to the USA which helps in itself, but another thing that surprisingly many economists seem to underestimate is the amount of coastline and cities close to the coastline Mexico has and the value of that. The latter is true also for India, Vietnam, indonesia and some others. It true that China has invested a lot into infrastructure. However China also has to transport it goods further than most of it's competitors. That is a bigger disadvantage, I would argue than many realize.
On the coastline thing, that's true, although one somewhat strange thing about Mexico is the extent to which it's population is concentrated in the central highlands. It's got a population density which is almost inverse to what you might expect (cities clustering on the coast).
Almost the entire population of China is concentrated on the east. The manufacturing hubs of Guangdong ,the biggest one in China are between a short truck drive to one of the ports or an hour+ drive to the port.
It's not a big disadvantage because it is so damn cheap considering the distance - We are talking pennies. That doesn't compare to the 100s of billions required to build the insane manufacturing infrastructure in China. They can build whatever you want TO SPEC and get it to your door step quicker (+cheaper) than having it built at home.
@@merrymachiavelli2041 Actually Mexico benefits awesomely in modern times. The arable land is inland. The coast is barren. Which makes the coast perfect for factories, as they do not compete with farmland!
@@blcheah2672de que hablas la mayoría de nuestras tierras de cultivo están en la costa, Sinatra, Michoacan, Veracruz, etc.
Great insights and analysis Patrick, you're both informative and entertaining! A question: Doesn't the US have to run continual trade deficients in order to supply the world with its reserve currency? Isn't re-shore/friend-shore production self-defeating? Smaller trade deficits->fewer USD available->stronger USD->cheaper imports for US consumers/less competitive exports?
As your friend How Money Works put it, "part-time hedge fund manager and full-time RUclips comedian Patrick Boyle" 🤣
This looks like what we had before trade with China began. When most of our appliances moved offshore they were made in Mexico. 🇨🇦
Selling components for products does not have the value add that selling the whole product would. We've basically locked them into the bottom of the value chain which means they can still produce many things but they do not receive the revenue.
Fantastic analysis and discussion into complex global economic trends. Thanks! Keep up the fabulous work!
After hiring, firing, and rubbing shoulders with many brilliant engineers in the Midwest manufacturing community I can say that these men (and some women) tend to be cautious and conservative people. They are the ones who are refusing to go and help build manufacturing muscle into a country that overtly calls us their enemy.
These talented people's mates consider visiting an ever increasingly oppressive and dangerous place to be unwise while the thought of helping them to ultimately thrive and steal their markets is not beneficial to the safety of their children and grandchildren.
I met my wife's cousin in Pittsburgh. She visited her uncle who retired in China. He essentially took his knowledge in the coal industry in West Virginia and gave it to them. She said he's conservative as F.
I'm sorry I didn't communicate more clearly, "conservative" in this context means that they tend to be risk-averse people.@@kohort1
Conservatives love money. That's rule #1
And liberals are not moved by money? Decade after decade research proves liberals are selfish and only want to spend others' money & conservatives dig into their own pockets and generously give their own hard-earned money to others' needs.@@triarii9257
Patrick is one of the best news source, and backs it up with detailed explanations.
Lot of the pros in the video could be said of Canada as well.
Mexico reminds me of post-Franco 1980's Spain. Incredible industrial growth then.
Your dig at Crypto is spot on, it is an absolute insane waste.
The U.S. should have always focused on trade deals with countries in the Western Hemisphere. Why ship across the largest ocean in the world when you can ship from Mexico southward.
CCP bots have raided the comment section lol
This count down is intense.
Mexico’s President: “I’ll show you”. Stabs country in foot.
Better than China stabbing its own people on the back literally...
😂 it's so sad but true, RIP our opportunity of becoming a manufacturing powerhouse
Hey bro. How about the Mexican Alien?! Is it true?
@@visitante-pc5zcit is.
support mexico from china ! 👍🇨🇳🇲🇽 thx to be part program of MADE IN CHINA 2025 > China aims to move away from being the "world's factory"-a producer of cheap louw-tech goods facilitated by low3r labour costs and supply chain advantages. The industrial policy aims to upgrade the manufacturing capabilities of Chinese industries, growing from labor-intensive workshops into a more technology-intensive powerhouse
Made in China 2025's goals include increasing the Chinese-domestic content of core materials to 40 percent by 2020 and 70 percent by 2025. To help achieve independence from foreign suppliers, the initiative encourages increased production in high-tech products and services
Chinese Companies Are Investing Billions in Mexico , Chinese firms are establishing factories that allow them to label goods “Made in Mexico,” then trucking products into the United States duty-free. lot mexican love china strategy as long they got lot job
The interest of Chinese manufacturers in Mexico is part of MADE IN CHINA 2025 👍 🇨🇳🇲🇽
I'm not a finance guy, I barely understand any of this, but I have a few questions. Wouldn't relocating manufacturing to Mexico cause increase in cost of good and hence cost of product? The idea of manufacturing in self sufficient countries in terms of resources, is that cost of goods is lower. Not to mention how close is China to the destinations that buy goods. Another question about the import versus export thing mentioned in the video, Should countries have import and export equally balanced? Keeping wages down in the face of inflation is difficult to imagine when the government gets its securities and bonds and not invest in its population. I can't wrap my head around this.
I mean Mexico doesn't need many ports and long railroads. The factories are all along the US border.
China will certainly still produce, but it will have a lot of competition. Other places are cheaper, are democracies, and don't steal property.
I mean every problem that exists with Mexico exists in one way or another in China as well.
Bit weird Mexico didn't become the biggest trading partner of US to begin with. Usually the most important trading partners of countries are their neighbours.
remember when leaded gas poisoned an entire generation? when people are sick, they don crazy things. things like that are less of a problem well after they're solved and everyone's forgotten about the reason there was bs. redneckery was a big problem. even during covid, less people are dying every day.
It’s still a massive trade partner.
That has always been the case minus the China factor. Prior to China's fall, Canada used to be the US's top trading partner. The same can be true of the majority of the Western countries, for example, China is their primary trade partner, its not North Africa or Eurasian countries like Turkey or Israel.
The U.S. doesn't want a Japan in its backyard
I was just thinking that. Looking at my country, the Netherlands, in the EU our direct neighbours are our greatest trading partner. Each adding to almost 20% of our GDP. It maybe that the almost 200 years of history between the US and Mexico plays a role in that.
Way to go Mexico!
Why are US Congress critters, mostly GOP but also some Dems, talking about invading Mexico?
Who knew that threatening people with violence would make them stop buying your stuff.
Who is threatening who ? 😂
@@ploplmao2655 China basically threatening everybody.
I swore to dispose all products Made In China, so all electronic stuff like PCs, modems, printers and flash disks had to go. Then all electrical stuff like TVs, freezers, washing machines were thrown out. Today, I found that the insulation, roofing, carpets, blankets, sidings, tiles, wires, nails and screws were all Made In China. What else can I throw into the dumpster ?
The thumbnail is a real thing of beauty. Whoever made it is amazing and deserves a raise if he isn't Patrick himself
Looks familiar and similar. Seen it somewhere already. Good job nonetheless
The final conclusion is important. There will always be a nation which keep wages low in order to compete for foreign investment. And since a manufactoring company makes it's own decisions to maximise profits free-trade will remain a nice theory.
About time we do everything again with Mexico and Canada. Ludricous to have our industry miles away next to 2enemy countries, and inside 1. Glad everyhting is coming back home "Canad1, US Mexico". North America, assemble!
Better together, china is a big country but North America united is so far better
Good. Keeping Mexico and supporting our North America continent is good. It should have been like this from the very beginning.
im in the ecological sciences by profession and never studied much economics in school, so I always learn something new about economics from these videos. one thing that keeps making me a little upset is the persistent theme that companies just put production wherever labor is cheapest. Makes me wonder if there's such a thing as a world where everyone earns a good living wage and we don't need cheap labor to support wealthy nations
Keep praying enough people see things the way you do, eventually.
Im also an ecologist - I keep wondering about the impacts on ecosystems of the pursuit of increasing consumption and trade. Humans only think of grabbing it all for themselves.
It's a supply/demand thing. The places that 'get exploited' are places where the people getting exploited either wouldn't have a job or would have an even worse job. It's why the labor is so cheap, tons of labor with few/no jobs.
If those places fixed whatever issues were causing their economy to be weak, then these greedy companies wouldn't be able to find such cheap labor anymore, and the exploitation problem would go away or be extremely reduced.
It is called capitalism. There is such a thing earning a good wage and not be exploited as cheap labor... that is to develop your own technology and become a competitor against the more developed and wealthy nations... like what China did. Becoming a competitor is at the root of all the currently unpleasantness between the US and China.
Environmental scientist here. This is because in economic decision-making, the fundamental elements are materials, capital investment, and Labor. Each can be substituted for the other. Thus, what you’re wishing from money making private enterprise is not something that is achievable - at least not without exacting a taxing, crushing costly burden upon consumers. Imperialist countries did that and very few still do. The Soviets functioned this way, and what happened to the environment? Destruction! Much worse than capitalism could or does do.
As someone from Monterrey, I actually can say this is a really good video.
But Chinese companies have set up factories in Mexico. Made in Mexico is probably the same as made in china. Same made in Vietnam and other southeast Asian countries.
Stocks are pretty unstable at the moment, but if you do the right math, you should be just fine. Bloomberg and other finance media have been recording cases of folks gaining over 250k just in a matter of weeks/couple months, so I think there are a lot of wealth transfer in this downtime if you know where to look.
Such market uncertainties are the reason I don’t base my market judgements and decisions on rumours and here-says, got the best of me 2020 and had me holding worthless position in the market, I had to revamp my entire portfolio through the aid of an advisor, before I started seeing any significant results happens in my portfolio, been using the same advisor and I’ve scaled up 750k within 2 years
Having a counsellor is essential for portfolio diversification. My advisor ASHLEY AIRAGAHI who is easily searchable and has extensive knowledge of the financial markets.
I'm studying for the CFA exams (I'm a candidate), and while studying and analyzing my economy (Mexico), I find a lot of weaknesses in the financial systems. I believe that a stronger securities market and government institutions would help boost the economy, and in my opinion, we need more finance professionals here, so the benefits of doing legal, high amounts of profit through efficient asset allocations, would outperform the people's need to take another paths to become wealthy. I really hope we don't miss this opportunity, it's our chance to stand out and become stronger than ever!
Another great video Patrick, thanks!
That’s some good news as China should not be too dependent on the US market as it has become unstable & a less reliable trading country. This dependency had caused Japan’s economy to suffer tremendously since the nineties when the U.S. had indirectly betrayed Japan’s reliance on the U.S. market. China must stay away from such mishaps and diversify its market more globally & expand its BRI projects more readily for developing economies. China can’t afford to have all the eggs in one basket , it’s necessary to look beyond the U.S..
If you dont like trade surplus nations, who will we ship our inflation to? If you cant ship your inflation (export USD, hence negative trade balance) when you print money, you will get hyperinflation. Exporting USD and getting relaitively cheap financing is how the US works
If Mexico did become America's primary manufacturer, some big potential side effects would be immigration reduction from the south and potentially a decline in American population. These could have cascading longer term impacts.
Recent data shows that migration from Mexico to the US is at an all time low. The US population will grow from migrants of other countries, like those in Central America or Africa. While Mexicans in the US are declining, there's all time record growth levels for Haitians, Nigerians, Guatemalans, etc. The US population will continue to grow no matter what
Thank you for the video and mentioning the EXTREME waste of crypto mining. Most people will have no idea how much power is wasted there but picture that the most essential resource water (yes not oil) takes the same amount energy 😢
It may be for americans, germans, but is it for the argentines? brazilians? Value is relative
including narcotics, Mexico is by far the USA largest trade partner.
China now has a 14.6% share of US imports from 21.6% in 2017. At this pace it could be 7% in 2030 which would be good for the US.
You are not looking at this clearly, China is actually trying to decouple from the US so that any sanctions imposed would have no effect while still earning the profits of relocating manufacturing in Mexico.
@@rcbrascan China's exports were down 14.5% year to year in July and 8.8% in August, so your Chinese disinformation is wrong. China is losing export business at a high rate and these losses will continue.
@@rcbrascan China is certainly selling components to other countries like Vietnam and Mexico where the final assembly is done and then the profits are recognized outside China. This doesn't help China except for keeping a small piece of the profits from the components they sold. The smart Chinese companies, like Apple, have moved their headquarters to Singapore, Ireland or someplace else. China's exports will fall and keep falling for at least the next 30 years.
Should have been like this all along.
Perhaps this burgeoning trade relationship will cause both Mexico and the US to actually address the drug trade and the cartels in a serious way. In addition, lets not forget the immigration problem that Mexico is squarely in the middle of (although the illegal migration problem is not Mexican citizens). I think the trade relationship between the US and Mexico is already being significantly affected/limited by these problems..neither of which you mentioned directly (you indirectly mentioned these with a comment on Mexico's crime rate). The US inability to address its demand for illegal narcotics is ongoing (and not improving....Illegal drugs are expected to be one of the biggest threats to national security in 2024 as overdose deaths topped 100,000 in the last year, according to the Department of Homeland Security's annual threat study) and the problem impacts Mexico and Mexican-American relations in a number of areas. Just sayin'
Your videos are truly enjoyable to watch - clear, informative, balanced, and non-sensationalized. Reminds me of how the news was broadcast here in the US back in the day with the Big 3 news broadcasters, or how the BBC reports global news. I am a happy new subscriber. 👍
Imagine of in the 90s manufacturing was moved to Mexico and the rest of Latin America instead of communist China, imagine how much more stable, prosperous, and culturally cohesive the entire American continent would be.
This could end up helping not just the US, but the entire continent. Canada and US manufacturers will have access to closer markets decreasing fuel costs, and as Mexico increases their income they will in turn be able to afford more goods from the South America and smaller amounts of high end manufacturing products from the US. The biggest issue is gonna be the cartels.
North America has had NAFTA for decades and what you just described had never happened. Mexico is booming now only because Chinese manufacturers are shifting their supply chains to Mexico.
The US has to end the war on drugs it's been a complete failure and it only destabilizes Mexico and all of Latin America
@@sittingduck02 NAFTA was a disaster, which is why Trump got rid of it and replaced it with USMCA, which is why the new trade routes are flourishing.
@@Liberty_or_DedNah Mexico trade share with US only up 1.6% since 2018 according to this video.
los carteles se acabarán cuando los americanos drogadictos dejen de comprar la droga pero se que eso nunca va a pasar
The Chinese bots are out in full force on this one, I guess this topic is especailly sensitive for them.
I remember back in 1998-2002 we went thru a shift from US to Mexico - then we moved our production to China. Full circle and now back to Mexico. (Same issues (today) in 2000 in Mexico why we left) . :)
It seems to me that there is no one single nation state that can replace China in manufacturing goods. In fact ,it is not fair for any single nation to have that roll. Much better to diversify to as many nations as possible .create as much competition as we can to get going to produce the best products possible.
"Mexico's share only increased from 13.4% to 15.0% or by 1.6%."
No, by 11.9%. Or 1.6 percentage point.
Love this guy!
Transport in Mexico is truck direct to the USA factory, you cant beat that using a ship
Wow this explanation of U.S./China trade relations is excellent.
Finally some actual good news for once in the world. Here's hoping man.
What exactly is good about it?
The real fact is that the US is a lot more dependent on China that the years before. Even with tariffs, more goods are imported from China, with the added cost passed on to the consumers. Trade with China between Vietnam and Mexico has increased over 70% and 40% respectively. Really low end China manufacturers has moved to these countries to tap into their low skilled and low cost labor. Probably over 70% of Mexico and Vietnam export to US are via Chinese manufacturers.
The big plus is now Mexicans can improve their lives with these new jobs within and not need to cross US border illegally!
Plus immigrants can stop at Mexico instead of the US.
Probably over 70% of Mexico and Vietnam export to US are via Chinese manufacturers. You just completely pulled that out of your ass
Another great video, I'm really like the thorough work you have spent on research and the pedagogic way you explain. And your great portion on sarcasm. Sláinte
What a masterclass explaining globalization and the trade balance in just 3 minutes at the end!
Patric is not live, this is a premiere
hes live in the chat
Cheers from México guys. Love this channel. Boyle hit it right in the nail concerning the varios logistical problems México is facing due to this new influx of investing and production. We can only hope they are solved in the next presidential term since the actual president amlo doesnt really care about investment.
He does care. That's why we have upgraded refineries, a new refinery, and two new railways.
200 billion USD were used to rescue the banks in the 90's turning private debt into public debt. How does that help productivity? To my knowledge that was the largest robbery in world history.
I worked with Mexicans here in the US. They are very hard workers. I respect them.
Mexico only needs to lose its communist socialist mentality that plagues majority of Latin American nations.
@@adelatorremothelet watch the video lol. It speaks for itself. And boyle isnt politicised. Crumbling infrastructure, lack of energy production and investment, insecurity, corruption etc. I can see the amlovers even reach channels such as these.
@PAPO9609 Boyle might not be political. Yet, he seems to be ignoring the facts:
FACT : 200 billions were squandered in bank rescue.
FACT : minimum wage raises were kept below the inflation rate during 4 decades
FACT : 80 billion were pardoned in taxes to large corporations
FACT: No refineries were built in 4 decades.
FACT: No new railways had been built since 1910.
No wonder we have a crumbling infrastructure... it is extremely cynical to blame it in the incumbent president.
@@PAPO9609 "Boyle isnt politicised" -proceeds to peddle whatever narrative the economist or neoliberal peddlers have. if amlo didnt give you 5000 tax breaks and 1000 concessions, he's anti-business. people like you haven't learned what this did to cities like ciudad juarez with the sweatshops or maquiladoras. learn your stuff
News broke yesterday about Mexico being the first nation to openly acknowledge the existence of aliens! Bravo, Mexico!
Come on guys. Isn't it obvious? China simply ship their products to Mexico and re-package it for US market. Just think through it ... what is the Mexico have in term of manufacturing eco-system that could sustain "being the biggest trading partner" with US?
Same for Vietnam. They basically package Chinese products and ship to US. The trucks cross the China and Vietnam border carrying almost-complete products are outrageously long.
"essential industries like crypto mining" 😂 love the videos 🤘
One of the best aspects of Mexico for manufacturing is its demographics, which should keep labor rates lower long term than pretty much all of the competitors (especially china)
Good point
I love the jab at Tesla’s Cybertruck 🤣🤣
great essay as always
I would have to imagine that while the US China trade links still exist with these developments, it will give opportunities for others to undercut china to sever those ties over time whereas maybe that was not as much of an option before.
opportunity costs
I don't think you understand
China is exporting to the US through a proxy like Mexico and other countries like Vietnam and Bangladesh
Just look at who owns the factory and you will know the Chinese are a few steps ahead of the USA lol
It won’t. China is the manufacturing hub & is investing in the countries not sanctioned who then sell the Chinese goods to us for MORE
LMAO cry😂😂😂
Following this development, Chinese companies are increasingly investing in production in Mexico too
I run a consulting business in the GCC. Our clients are large Chinese companies seeking to relocate their manufacturing assets here. Key drivers are removal of subsidies in China, high labour costs in China and FTA vs tarriffs. We are extremely busy!
The biggest question is though whether the trade deficit has become smaller or the prices of goods have changed for the better. I think the prices only became higher for Americans in order to participate in this political geopolitical battle.
Mexico's president is squandering a golden opportunity here. Some countries would kill to be in their position. What a shame.
And what will the US do? Export democracy? 😂
No, seriously, Mexico is doing good by taking this "golden opportunity" with a grain of salt.
There's a reason why Kissinger quotes are famous even when the guy is not.
You need to understand inner mexico and mexico's recent history with rampant cleptocracy neoliberalism and PRIAN - then you will probably understand why AMLO does what he does.
Mexico's president is doing very important infrastructure projects to receive a lot of foreign investment and it's working very well. He is not antobusiness, he just forced a lot of businesses that were not paying their taxes to do it and now they speak bad about the administration.
sounds like Mexico needs to produce more energy if they want to compete more in the world.
The benifits of having Mexico do many of US trade deficits will help reduce border crossing and even make more Mexicans stay as jobs open. Makes everything beneficial for both side. And also taming a wild war mongering panda.
What is the titles of your pile of books in your reserch list on the desk