Deficits are part of the financial equation. It must be created. The reason is Government does NOT get money from taxes or bonds. Taxes are collected in the end of fiscal year. The government spends FIRST it collects taxes later in order to create demand for those dollars. Therefore, that government doesn’t need to BORROW IT. it sells bonds in order to create demand for those dollars along with taxes it collects, the currency therefore have value. Remember , the dollar is or any fiat currency is owned & issued by the government.
I haven’t seen a gas station selling gas for $2.00 nor have I seen a loaf of bread for $.75 …. You are right prices of most consumable items won’t go down
The conclusion is not true. I'm an AI research engineer, I work on multimodal LLMs for search with RAG and other fun stuff. I also do applications of robotic foundational models. Running any big model in the cloud is much much faster than locally. To be able to run a big LLM locally you need a ton of compute, like 8xA100 easily and that's not even enough for the biggest models. I'm 100% convinced that we will NOT see an upgrade in end-user devices. Everything will be in the cloud (as it already is). The only people still running local models will be privacy-nerds (I see nothing wrong with that btw) and companies with security and privacy imperatives. There's no way your phone will ever be able to run big LLM or audio/image/video diffusion models locally even heavily quantized and optimized for inference. Our phones are already glorified end terminals and do very very little compute locally. The only exception is phone cameras that do image cleaning, stabilization, enhancing, etc... but that's it.
Exactly. And the comparison with games isn't a good one because streamed games have serious problems with value proposition and UX. Rest of the video was good though.
@@manvsmachine1 heavily quantized 8B version, right? it's not a killer use case because you don't want to empty your battery for an hour of chat. Also on what are you going to RAG? On documents you want to have synchronized across your phone and desktop, which requires pulling data. In the end, why not just pay a couple bucks for the company to also do the compute and not just the data keeping? Also you might be satisfied with a chat interface for now, but with GPT-4o and Project Astra, now people will expect video question answering in real-time, which add a hell of complexity and compute power.
I have heard several investors propose device upgrades will be necessary, you make me question that? Wish I knew more to make their arguments, after all they have a lot riding on their investments.
This is how fools think. And as you have a like I will ditch this channel now. You sit in a fixed rate, but the others do not - means nobody can afford houses at those rates and housing will crash and when the houses in your street crash - so does yours. You may say you do not care that your house falls, but you pay down a 300k mortgage while your neighbour gets foreclosed at 150k. Think, and never write such a bs without thinking.
Cloud Computing is the real money making machine. Cloud Computing is the vehicle AI will be distributed on because obviously the hardware will likely never be compact enough to run that level of software and code.
I’m sure there are many people who need to sell their houses now, due to change in circumstances, higher taxes or HOA fees, higher insurance rates, etc but can’t due to the much higher mortgage rate - but this situation can only last so long and in fact I have seen housing prices decreasing for less desirable properties. If we do see any sort of contraction in the job market more people will sell out of necessity which would drive the market even lower, as folks want to get as much money as possible before the bottom falls out. Also, the savings rate going down is not a bullish sign - it is a sign that many folks are struggling with inflation as their income is not keeping pace with rising prices. Inflation and higher rates take a long time to impact the economy but, when the full impact hits, expect a significant slowdown, which is exactly what is needed to tame inflation.
machine learning requires massive resources to train but not nearly as much to run after training is complete. A large hardware upgrade isn't really required to run machine learning apps locally on desktops, laptops and phones. For instance; a HPC may be needed to train a model that adds bunny ears to live video of people but the trained model would be executable on a phone.
I watched this interview and couldn't understand his take on CC delinquencies. Thanks for re-airing it with real data. Not sure whey he got not push back on this?
Not sure if you follow these 2 but a segment on Jeffrey Gundlach and Stan Druckenmiller would be awesome. I'm liking bonds and I think a good video on bonds and yields would be timely considering the drop on the 10yr
I don't think you can dismiss government debt . Jay Powell has said it is uncontroversial that the current debt spiral is "unsustainable." No one in the Fed has contradicted him. Eisman is not an economist. We may not know when the inflection point will appear, but ignorance is a poor excuse for inaction.
If most people bought a house at a 3% mortgage and plan to hold it for 20 years or more, then how can they be "stuck" or "house poor"? Why would they even move if the mortgage fell down to 1%? They would just refinance at the lower rate and stay in the same house.
Amazing video. Very informative and inline with my thinking. It’s tru that right now the hype is AI chips and tbh I hold some positions in said chip companies but the real question is what comes after that. In today’s reality I would like AI apps in my phone that allow me to do everyday tasks with a tap of a button or better voice activated by telling them what I need done. I completely agree with Steve Iseman. His team have really put in the work and done the research.
im either way on gov spending, but the "they have been saying that for 40 years" argument doesnt really convince me. climate change has been an issue for roughly the same time frame, there has not been a collapse from it yet, but we still know if we dont adress it we are screwed. right now goverments are like banks in 2007, too big to fail. which also means there cant be graceful failure, only devastation when it does fail.
All of your research is completely correct, but the market hasn't changed. I've seen so many of these videos and it hasn't helped at all because again!!! The market doesn't care.
The bond market is being bought by the FED. Each time it approaches 5% it dips miraculously back down even though the economic news and information hasn’t changed. The dollar is about to be decoupled from its Saudi partner. Each set of data from the government is wonderful until it’s revised a month later. Everything is fine, nothing to worry about.
When savings rate is down people are spending. When recession begins savings rates go up as fear enters the market. That's the math. Low savings rate and high credit card debt = consumer confidence.
The US keeps printing because they are the main reserve currency n have the control very much in their gands... but now the de dolarisation and BRICS currency and transacts in their own currency will take that control away very quickly... As said by Ham here,
The deficit is not an issue is kind of a dumb comment when you know that they will either have to raise taxes or inflation. Both will show up on your business performances.
Late 1990s the future looked like there'd be mobile phones with great capabilities, search engines likewise, and internet shops. And so it turned out tobe! But investing in Nokia and Altavista and Netscape and the internet shops of the day, still didn't turn out to be a good idea. The wiser second wave of movers destroyed them all.
Stevie's wrong about Apple. Apple is getting left behind. Think of the 80/20 Rule - More & More of the same Questions will have been answered providing faster response Local A.I. is going to continue to run on Thin Clients (Including Phones) with better software + Smarter Algos, faster Internet Speeds + Pico Compression
>ignores 99% of net job growth since 2020 being only part time jobs >ignores decreasing employment in native born US workers since 2020. >ignores constant upward revision of unemployment rate for the last 18 months. Lol. Yeah. Super sharp analysis there Eisman.
No worries about the deficit. I find that unbelievable. The US has already 34 trillion debt. Need to print more and more money because of the yearly deficit. And the US needs to pay a lot of extra interest because of this debt. This is on long term not sustainable. It can even cause hype inflation if the other countries in the world will not accept the USD as reserve currency anymore. That is already happening. The Brics nations are planning to stop using the USD for various things. The moment they start with that plan. USD will collaps. So if i were the US i would focus on the deficit and the total debt of 34 trillion.
AI is slowly going to be just like car EVs for exactly same reason infrastructure not capable to have the energy needed in process but they are silent about that... But itty bitty company found how to do it for lower watts like TV.... and not public yet but when they are going to be the one who patent the one every AI system needs...or hope The nuclear energy is the answer 😁
why do you care so much about another country's finances? you probably know more about your own country, you should cover that, and stop parroting mainstream news.
The Republicans know how to earn money, and the Democrats know how to spend it. When Trump was in office, my exported products tripled, my gross revenue doubled, and my personal investment value almost doubled. Many of my colleagues had similar or better results. In the first year, the Democrats were in office, everything stopped, as many projects in America were shut down, and the Democrats started their overseas spending spree.
@@k.h.6991@k.h.6991 Yes, His last year in office, I was still doing well with my exports through most of 2020 when government spending increased. What nearly shut down the country was not Covid. It was government bad moves. Ask anyone in business at that time. (pipeline, Border wall, etc.)
So Eisman basically says that the deficit isnt going to be a problem because it never has been That is one fucking crazy conclusion. It is not a rationel argument. If he said, because the US will “print” then fine, but that has consequences. But saying “just because” is not valid for me.
![Eminem - Temporary (feat. Skylar Grey) [Official Music Video]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/ZaK9Wi5ho0o/mqdefault.jpg)
here before the bots ruin the comment section 🥲
@@jimrobinson9979they re bots
Deficits are part of the financial equation. It must be created.
The reason is Government does NOT get money from taxes or bonds. Taxes are collected in the end of fiscal year. The government spends FIRST it collects taxes later in order to create demand for those dollars.
Therefore, that government doesn’t need to BORROW IT. it sells bonds in order to create demand for those dollars along with taxes it collects, the currency therefore have value.
Remember , the dollar is or any fiat currency is owned & issued by the government.
Pinned by Hamish Hodder
@HamishHodder - What country do you reside in?
Too late it seems.
🎉😂😮😅🎉😢😢😮
You folks do not know what inflation is. Prices never go down again. Prices may stabilize one day, and that's how inflation works around the world.
I haven’t seen a gas station selling gas for $2.00 nor have I seen a loaf of bread for $.75 …. You are right prices of most consumable items won’t go down
research on this name,. Kristin Amy Rose.
Companies may not lower pricing even if rates are eased
The conclusion is not true. I'm an AI research engineer, I work on multimodal LLMs for search with RAG and other fun stuff. I also do applications of robotic foundational models.
Running any big model in the cloud is much much faster than locally. To be able to run a big LLM locally you need a ton of compute, like 8xA100 easily and that's not even enough for the biggest models.
I'm 100% convinced that we will NOT see an upgrade in end-user devices. Everything will be in the cloud (as it already is). The only people still running local models will be privacy-nerds (I see nothing wrong with that btw) and companies with security and privacy imperatives. There's no way your phone will ever be able to run big LLM or audio/image/video diffusion models locally even heavily quantized and optimized for inference.
Our phones are already glorified end terminals and do very very little compute locally. The only exception is phone cameras that do image cleaning, stabilization, enhancing, etc... but that's it.
Thanks for that information
Lama3 on my old m1 mbp is running great. How in the world is L3 + RAG not a killer edge use case?!?
Exactly. And the comparison with games isn't a good one because streamed games have serious problems with value proposition and UX.
Rest of the video was good though.
@@manvsmachine1 heavily quantized 8B version, right? it's not a killer use case because you don't want to empty your battery for an hour of chat. Also on what are you going to RAG? On documents you want to have synchronized across your phone and desktop, which requires pulling data.
In the end, why not just pay a couple bucks for the company to also do the compute and not just the data keeping?
Also you might be satisfied with a chat interface for now, but with GPT-4o and Project Astra, now people will expect video question answering in real-time, which add a hell of complexity and compute power.
I have heard several investors propose device upgrades will be necessary, you make me question that? Wish I knew more to make their arguments, after all they have a lot riding on their investments.
When your mortgage rate is lower than inflation, you hold tight because you’re making money without risk.
This only makes sense in the context of your home. If home price inflation is rising > than your mortgage rate, then yes.
This is how fools think. And as you have a like I will ditch this channel now.
You sit in a fixed rate, but the others do not - means nobody can afford houses at those rates and housing will crash and when the houses in your street crash - so does yours. You may say you do not care that your house falls, but you pay down a 300k mortgage while your neighbour gets foreclosed at 150k. Think, and never write such a bs without thinking.
What they tell the cattle and do for themselves are 2 completely different things
Amen, ahead of the curve
The wallstreet types have to show a happy face, else they would scare their customers and their fees away.
i don't trust anything from cnbs
A.I. as with all new technology throughout all of history, is a weapon.
Cloud Computing is the real money making machine. Cloud Computing is the vehicle AI will be distributed on because obviously the hardware will likely never be compact enough to run that level of software and code.
I find it amazing how split people are on the economy.. the only thing more split is politics
fugayzi, fugazi. It's a whazy. It's a woozie
We have people on Tv selling us flowers. But once the TV shuts off is back to reality.
I’m sure there are many people who need to sell their houses now, due to change in circumstances, higher taxes or HOA fees, higher insurance rates, etc but can’t due to the much higher mortgage rate - but this situation can only last so long and in fact I have seen housing prices decreasing for less desirable properties. If we do see any sort of contraction in the job market more people will sell out of necessity which would drive the market even lower, as folks want to get as much money as possible before the bottom falls out. Also, the savings rate going down is not a bullish sign - it is a sign that many folks are struggling with inflation as their income is not keeping pace with rising prices. Inflation and higher rates take a long time to impact the economy but, when the full impact hits, expect a significant slowdown, which is exactly what is needed to tame inflation.
machine learning requires massive resources to train but not nearly as much to run after training is complete. A large hardware upgrade isn't really required to run machine learning apps locally on desktops, laptops and phones. For instance; a HPC may be needed to train a model that adds bunny ears to live video of people but the trained model would be executable on a phone.
I watched this interview and couldn't understand his take on CC delinquencies. Thanks for re-airing it with real data. Not sure whey he got not push back on this?
Once again thanks for your very informative update. Keep up the good work
Good warnings - it won't be like we expect it today!
Hamish'., I subscribed a very long time ago (thankfully) ;)
So are credit card delinquencies up or down? Did you find if he was right about them being down?
The last bit of words of wisdom! Thanks for sharing mate
“Rich people acquire assets. The poor and middle class acquire liabilities that they think are assets.” - Robert Kiyosaki
Not sure if you follow these 2 but a segment on Jeffrey Gundlach and Stan Druckenmiller would be awesome. I'm liking bonds and I think a good video on bonds and yields would be timely considering the drop on the 10yr
Why have you ditched the Q&A section in your podcast?
I don't think you can dismiss government debt . Jay Powell has said it is uncontroversial that the current debt spiral is "unsustainable." No one in the Fed has contradicted him. Eisman is not an economist. We may not know when the inflection point will appear, but ignorance is a poor excuse for inaction.
If youve seen the film Steve Eisman got lucky picking up a wrong number phone call meant for someone else...so he is hardly Michael Burry
If most people bought a house at a 3% mortgage and plan to hold it for 20 years or more, then how can they be "stuck" or "house poor"? Why would they even move if the mortgage fell down to 1%? They would just refinance at the lower rate and stay in the same house.
The bots is insane
beep boop beep… quite rational actually… we’ll be taking over soon… beep beep boop
I cant delete them fast enough 😢
@@HamishHodder dont hurt us … boop bop tiddly winks
I have really bad wifi and the ai chats work really well. Don't need an upgrade from my 8plus!
Great video
Anyone in U.S. stocks will lose everything unless they day trade. The buy and hold crowd will go bye-bye.
Is he steve corral?
Streaming and Processing power are very different things.
Awateness of the market data manipulation is also growing ... so lets see how far this control lasts
It depends on the AI app...
bulk of AI computation will have to be processed in cloud.
Amazing video. Very informative and inline with my thinking. It’s tru that right now the hype is AI chips and tbh I hold some positions in said chip companies but the real question is what comes after that. In today’s reality I would like AI apps in my phone that allow me to do everyday tasks with a tap of a button or better voice activated by telling them what I need done.
I completely agree with Steve Iseman. His team have really put in the work and done the research.
Thanks, please make a video about memecoins I prefer Flokong that is strong
Video games are already streamed from cloud it just sucks because of the latency issues
im either way on gov spending, but the "they have been saying that for 40 years" argument doesnt really convince me.
climate change has been an issue for roughly the same time frame, there has not been a collapse from it yet, but we still know if we dont adress it we are screwed.
right now goverments are like banks in 2007, too big to fail. which also means there cant be graceful failure, only devastation when it does fail.
All of your research is completely correct, but the market hasn't changed. I've seen so many of these videos and it hasn't helped at all because again!!! The market doesn't care.
It's "Vince" from SHAM-WOW !
Man this aged well considering apple jumped 15% the other day
The bond market is being bought by the FED. Each time it approaches 5% it dips miraculously back down even though the economic news and information hasn’t changed.
The dollar is about to be decoupled from its Saudi partner. Each set of data from the government is wonderful until it’s revised a month later.
Everything is fine, nothing to worry about.
Main Street is hurting and no one wants to admit it!
one thing is for sure, you can't outprint the deficit. It won't work. It never worked.
You said his ai stock, but what was it!?
When savings rate is down people are spending. When recession begins savings rates go up as fear enters the market. That's the math. Low savings rate and high credit card debt = consumer confidence.
What middle consumer?
The US keeps printing because they are the main reserve currency n have the control very much in their gands... but now the de dolarisation and BRICS currency and transacts in their own currency will take that control away very quickly... As said by Ham here,
The deficit is not an issue is kind of a dumb comment when you know that they will either have to raise taxes or inflation. Both will show up on your business performances.
St. Louis is pronounced like "Saint Lewis". Great video tho.
Like Eisman said, “Im not an economist”
He doesnt think 34T in debt is a serious concern? Thats very foolish.
Eisman said banks/financials were "uninvestable" just a month or two before they all sky-rocketed.
we will never pay off the debt we cant even pay the interest.
Coinbase listing Flokong Binance probably in line too
Ok video but you need better research. Latency is the issue. Stat is why games and Ai can’t be streamed.
Ai videos require a lot of power and space in the cloud - waiting for sora to create videos on phone
I wonder if that is going side track Sam from his position at $Oklo
He looks good !
Late 1990s the future looked like there'd be mobile phones with great capabilities, search engines likewise, and internet shops. And so it turned out tobe! But investing in Nokia and Altavista and Netscape and the internet shops of the day, still didn't turn out to be a good idea. The wiser second wave of movers destroyed them all.
Everything is great keep borrowing, it will be spectacular when the rug get's pulled! LOL
Wait til stable coin legislation comes in and they have to be backed by bonds. We’ll cancel the debt soon with blockchain.
Thank you for your research. I find your videos are well done. When Flokong hits it hits hard
Government spending is some business' income. If the government stops spending we will go into an immediate recession.
Relentless printing of money. Enjoy.
Stevie's wrong about Apple. Apple is getting left behind.
Think of the 80/20 Rule - More & More of the same Questions will have been answered providing faster response
Local A.I. is going to continue to run on Thin Clients (Including Phones) with better software + Smarter Algos, faster Internet Speeds + Pico Compression
Short it than!!
If everything is good then why has the reverse repo dropped from 2 trillion to 371 billion 🤔
They will never run locally
>ignores 99% of net job growth since 2020 being only part time jobs
>ignores decreasing employment in native born US workers since 2020.
>ignores constant upward revision of unemployment rate for the last 18 months.
Lol. Yeah. Super sharp analysis there Eisman.
Icp is the best. All on chain
I respect your work mate so you say Flokong good one to use?
The delinquency rate on commercial bank consumer loans is rising not falling. Eisman is out of touch with reality.
The fear of deficit was created by Thatcher and Reagan who viewed the national economy the same as that of a convenience store.
Binance listing Flokong is set in stone. 🔥
No worries about the deficit. I find that unbelievable. The US has already 34 trillion debt. Need to print more and more money because of the yearly deficit.
And the US needs to pay a lot of extra interest because of this debt.
This is on long term not sustainable. It can even cause hype inflation if the other countries in the world will not accept the USD as reserve currency anymore. That is already happening. The Brics nations are planning to stop using the USD for various things. The moment they start with that plan. USD will collaps.
So if i were the US i would focus on the deficit and the total debt of 34 trillion.
When i typed above i did not see the whole video yet. Well i guess i have the same opinion as some well known economics :P
What is he talking about!! He wasn’t that smart. He got lucky if you remember. Michael Burry was the genius not this guy!!
You’re spot on about AI backend being held locally in the future. Great analogies with the movie formats.
AI directly on a decentralised blockchain. ICP!
I'm giving all stacks to Flokong. The returns work and will be better more and more
What did they pay him to say the economy is ok?.
probably economists who see record highs in the stock market and very low unemployment
À trillion dollars deficit every 100 days but "all is fine" ? 😂
Steve married Marisa Tomei, right?
Pronounced Saint Lewis,
Steve Eisman. The guy who made money because of wrong number? 😁
I think we can all agree this man would never give tips for free. Whatever the media say do the opposite
AI is slowly going to be just like car EVs for exactly same reason infrastructure not capable to have the energy needed in process but they are silent about that... But itty bitty company found how to do it for lower watts like TV.... and not public yet but when they are going to be the one who patent the one every AI system needs...or hope The nuclear energy is the answer 😁
Agreed. He even said "laptops." "Laptops"?! 💁
Laptops are a thing of the past.
RIIIIGGGGGGHT! GEEEEZZZZZ! Please STOP! 🤦♂️🤦♂️🤦♂️
Great, ai will make people even lazyer.
I think Stevie is has been slipped some Special K
why do you care so much about another country's finances? you probably know more about your own country, you should cover that, and stop parroting mainstream news.
Well maybe Eisman believes his own bull shit
Lol
The Big Short investor is the Big BS investor.
Steve is now a lizard?
I can't believe Steve doesn't think the economy is in trouble. He may have been turned to the dark side. Sad...
lol, No, Steve is riding the stock market to new records highs
The Republicans know how to earn money, and the Democrats know how to spend it. When Trump was in office, my exported products tripled, my gross revenue doubled, and my personal investment value almost doubled. Many of my colleagues had similar or better results. In the first year, the Democrats were in office, everything stopped, as many projects in America were shut down, and the Democrats started their overseas spending spree.
Weird comment. We had the covid crisis when Trump was in power. That was the main difference for things like export.
@@k.h.6991@k.h.6991 Yes, His last year in office, I was still doing well with my exports through most of 2020 when government spending increased. What nearly shut down the country was not Covid. It was government bad moves. Ask anyone in business at that time. (pipeline, Border wall, etc.)
My buddy works for him at his hedge fund, that aren’t very profitable
So Eisman basically says that the deficit isnt going to be a problem because it never has been
That is one fucking crazy conclusion. It is not a rationel argument.
If he said, because the US will “print” then fine, but that has consequences.
But saying “just because” is not valid for me.
Credit card delinquency is starting to come down???? Is he living in a parallel universe ?????? Just another conman that got lucky!