Peter has a genuine love/concern for his students. 1 Corinthians 13: 4-7 No other trading teacher on RUclips comes even close. His relentless pursuit of the truth reminds me of Jordan Peterson.
I'm so glad RUclips finally showed me your videos. I've been watching other technical analysis programs and it did not show me your excellent program til now.
Peter great video. I couldn't help but be reminded of the old adage "It's Different This Time" when you were discussing todays market vs previous markets. We shall see, but I like to put a little more faith in history than solely on recency bias. Time will tell what happens , but the hardest thing for traders to do is to make the shift. I believe you don't crash from highs, but you do crash from previous support and that is where the sellers will live.
Man oh man. Can I just say that I love the way Peter thinks? I could listen to his explanations all day long! No BS. Just simple, straightforward explanations with solid foundations.
The tech rally has been largely propelled by massive call options buying with short expirations. Aapl and nvda call buying at strikes at or slightly above the money have gone bonkers. This has been going on for weeks, most prominent on tuesdays and wednesdays. Call volumes are in millions of contracts, while open interest just a fraction of that. So mechanical gamma squeeze is a large component of the rally. If you multiply the call option volume on any given tuesday or wednesday by 100, i notice that most of the daily trading volume in the underlying is likely due to delta hedging. I will continue to observe this in the weeks to come but it looks like the tail has been wagging the dog for quite a while already.
So how does that potentially play out over the medium to long term? Or is it just a short term phenomenon that has no effect on long term other than stretching the price farther from the mean?
There are many articles and youtube channels that explain a gamma squeeze better than I ever will be able to. In essence, it indicates, that the rapid price movement is due to feverish speculation in options rather than organic accumulation of the underlying stock. It is impossible to foresee when it is going to end, as it can keep going for weeks and even months. Recent examples were gme, amc and tsla until those bubbles burst. What eventually happens is the market makers raise the price of the calls so much that the demand naturally declines, because call buyers start losing money, because they get eaten by theta and iv crush. Then a reverse gamma may occur, when folks start piling into put options. Once the put volume begins exceeding the call volume, time to watch for reversal. This is what I am doing now. Watching for signs and signals of change. Upside potential limited from my perspective. Short entry not there yet, but coming soon to a theater near you.
@@joannahuc1318 my understanding was GME and TSLA were fueled buy short interest? I would assume there is very little short interest yet in NVDA? Seeing less than 2% (lagging data, probably getting higher). But it still works essentially the same when there is little short interest? Seems like zero day options have really changed thing on price action.
You are correct. Initially, amc and gme was a garden variety short squeeze, which later morphed into a gamma squeeze, as demand for higher and higher call strike prices started to heat up. Nvda and aapl are gamma squeezes, read up on it. There may be little short interest, but intense demand for call options, which forces the market maker to buy stock to delta hedge the options they have to sell to meet the demand.
Interesting perspective. In the near-term, I agree that we might see a relief rally for sectors that have been beaten up, like those in XLE. But, I disagree with his longer assessment. The SPDR ETF’s are telling us that we are in the late expansion stage of the business cycle. Tech are the last to fall at this stage of the cycle. But we are already seeing weakness in oil. Oil is a leading indicator. It will be interesting how the market digests the news about AAPL and AI next week. Will it be the final hoorah?
Been a fan since the tastytrade days with you and Brad. Market internals (the quad) and the market profile really was a game changer for me. Love these videos man, keep them coming please.
Watching the market's ups and downs shows how quickly things can change. In the market, strategic, informed trading isn't a choice; it's a must. Remember, caution is as crucial as ambition here. This dedication to continuous learning is inspiring...managed to grow a nest egg of around $87k to a decent $246k... I'm especially grateful to Jane Nina Pickett tactics and strategies.
It's truly refreshing to see a comment about Jane Nina Pickett. I've also had the pleasure of working with her for several months after discovering more about her online. She has a knack for simplifying complex issues, whether it's a market surge or decline. Her approach consistently keeps you ahead of the curve. I'd call her a guru, for sure.
Nice to see this here, Jane's understanding of market indicators is impressive. She knows exactly when to enter and exit trades for maximum profit. her siignals are top notch
Our markets changed when they started printing $trillions. Old correlations and charts aren't working in this full blown artificial system. Fiscal dominance is also throwing off traders and investors. Best reason ever to focus on the trend of price and not talking head opinions.
Excellent presentation. Ratio trades and risk reversals are excellent trades if you understand where you take heat and odds go against the trade. . Best part is you don’t need much movement to make a nice profit with lots of ways to adjust to get debit back.
All of, the Other,.. fairly "Good" Stocks,.. ARE Playing,.. "Catch Up" ! Peter IS,. Correct and THIS, Bull run,. AIN'T Over, as inflation and interest Rates ARE, Headed, DOWN Plus, IT's an Election Year ( Pandering to, the Masses for Votes ! ). Gotta make, the Dim's, "look good" for the People with, Short Memories,.. LOL
Peter. Nicely done. Staying with Meta, I would not buy the stock due to price itself. I would consider a longer duration bullish synthetic at relative no cost. IV is a bit high so calls by themselves would not work for me as theta decay is too much for my blood. 440 call using 16 august DTE, with selling the 445 put. For each long call then sell 8 puts. This gives in essence free trades. The OTM puts should generate a nice theta decay for income as the META goes north. This is my opinion on how to trade META. Exit at 50% profit and close if the trade goes the wrong way such as the call dropping to 50 delta. Cheers.
Good question. I always use cash markets for T/A because they are more "real" for lack of a better word. They are the footprint of what institutions and larger players are doing. The real commitment to position comes between 9:30 and 4pm ET. Not in algo driven futures gaps overnight.
This is great! If you have a small account in IRA, is there an alternative way to sell put and call? Meta is a high price stock and selling 3 calls and puts would take a lot of fund to cover in case stocks goes to zero and infinite loss possibly to infinity on the call side from broker perspective
I think this is the first video I watched of someone explaining why the stock is NOT going down, everyone else saying there is a crash coming.....every day for the last 2 years.
Awesome video...As beginner I learned so much and understand things going on around the market...All eyes on MGK to break down as I don't trust several gaps-up from this FAKE bullrun...I bought VIX etf to profit from the upcoming correction....Thank you
I saw the other day from two relatively prominent tech analysts that say based on the full daily chart pattern, that S&P gap is a wave 5 exhaustion gap. And not a starting breakaway gap or a wave 3 mid gap. Noted by relative breadth. Of course on a smaller minute based chart might be something else. But this is why the risk is high at this point to see what the market does. we shall see. Btw... we need more of your analysis on this shadowtrader channel!!
A wealk low is one where prices have been before recently. Essentially a double bottom. Those types of lows are weakened and more apt to break on the next retest. Check out shadowtrader.net/glossary1
Great video, with all the supporting evidence you suggested showing the market will continue to go up, gives me every reason I need to be BEARISH, the markets main Objective is to go opposite of were it should and screw/trick everybody as per usual, so i will be SHORTING the upcoming weeks! cheers!!
This seems like the worst period. Even the market are now very unpredictable. Started investing recently when the market prices were a bit high,today I am more than 60% down!.
Don’t be confuse buying the dip in a bear market, with guaranteed future returns. Just because that company is down 60%+ from ATH does NOT make it a sound long-term investment. Make sure you’re investing in great companies. kudos to kiana rachel
She's recognized as 'Mrs Kiana rachel . One of the finest portfolio managers in the field. She's widely recognized; you should take a look at her work.
I agree. Based on personal experience working with an investment advisor, I currently have $1m in a well diversified portfolio, that has experienced exponential growth. It is not about having money to invest in stocks,but also you need to be knowledgeable, persistent, and have strong hands to back it up.
Depends how far past the short 3 calls you go. Simple math. If the distance between the long strike and the shorts is $10, then you would start to lose money $5 above the short strikes. Think of it this way. If everything goes in the money, then you are holding a long vertical worth $10 and two naked shorts. Thus the naked shorts can only go against you $5 before you start losing money. The only risk is that you "go there" too quickly. Charts show us how stocks move over time and how far they go. You also have T/A at your disposal which the options pricing models don't recognize at all. So when I do this my short strikes are always up against resistance levels.
The lack of breadth can last awhile. And probably will till fall. Before the divergences play out. I take note of this for my investment portfolio, but trading I strictly follow price and confirmations.
Could be but absolutely NO point trying to position for that ahead of it. It won't go limit down on day one. If it did, we have much bigger problems than the stock market.
Money is pouring into Tech, in part because of AI, but also a big part of that, that is being ignored, is anticipation of rate cuts. Rates cuts are bullish for tech! Always has been.
While I agree there’s no strong indication that a major downturn is imminent, technology alone cannot sustain this rally much longer. All the megacap tech stocks are already at or very near all time highs with overstretched RSIs and P/E ratios. Apple and NVDA did the heavy lifting this week. Both companies currently boast record historic valuations. Who’s going to be the next savior next week? Microsoft? Google? Amazon? They are already overstretched as well. So unless the breadth expands soon, it is more likely that we are heading for a correction than buyers stepping in once again and taking tech stocks to another level of blue sky territory.
High prices alone do not cause pullbacks. Money is pouring into tech in anticipation of rate cuts. Rate cuts are bullish for tech! Always have been. Why would you buy anything but tech when you know a rate cut is coming? That’s a big part of what is driving this rally. It’s not just AI. It’s market fundamentals that go back decades. Part of the normal market cycle.
@@The-Banksterbuyer shut off isn’t that the price is high, it’s that there are no buyers at that price. You can have high prices and still have buyers at that price. That’s why i said high prices alone do not cause pullbacks. You need high prices, no buyers, and sellers to come in aggressively. No buyers and no sellers, price is flat and volume is low. Happens all the time when price gets high and doesn’t cause a pullback. Remember too that buying and selling alone do not cause price to move. It’s aggressive buying and selling (buying near the ask or selling near the bid) that causes price to move.
@@therealshadowtrader I have a feeling that when the rate cut finally happens, tech will sell off (could be completely wrong about that though). Kinda like when a stock announces a split months in advance, and the stock rallies for those months, then when the actual split happens, the stock dips. All the pressure and anticipation is released, people take profits, etc. Just something to keep an eye on…
You're right, end of June it will come down, S&P 500, according to it's future. So plenty of time to get out.And don't forget to get in at 5100 for that final last run up, if you dare of course...😛
You have to look at the 4 hour for unfilled gaps. If it was filled pre market, it won’t show on the daily chart. How do you not know this? I’ve only been trading 2 years and I figured it out by looking at past charts and watching charts the last 2 years.
Why do you state 'we know lower interest rates are coming' as if it's not a matter of probabilities but as if it's settled fact? There is and has been much debate on the issue and the lower rates camp has been wrong for years now (see fed funds future in December 23 vs now and then repeat that same exercise for the last couple of years). Check out a show like Fast Money where they actually have some competing opinions on this topic. Presenting it as settled fact unnecessarily diminishes your credibility. I would suggest simply adjusting the wording on rate cut discussions to allow for other probabilities than the scenario you appear to be tied to as the most probable.
what is the point of equal weight? Comparing company that makes $80B in a Q to company that is losing money and saying avarage earnings per Q is $40B is absolutely stupid. Do you compare free speech in Zimbabwe and USA and say free speech is avarage when you combite two contries together?
YUP,.. they will Be, "Pandering" to the Un-educated Masses, FOR,.. Votes !!! ( The masses, usually HAVE, a Short Memory ! ) Example,.. Paying off Student Loans and,.. CHEAP Gas / util's, will help with,.. THAT !
Powell took a rate cut off the table and certainly did not say what you said he sounded like, guessing you didnt pay attention or even watch it. All rate sensitive stocks have been selling off since the meeting. The fed will not and will never cut rates at all time highs. Good lord, going all in cash, the delusional takes from all youtub stock channels are starting the scare me as you all sound the same. Its worse my dad called to tell me hes going all in nvidia with his retirement account this week. "Its different this time" gets a big nope from me
You really should take a trial to my room and you would see that I'm the most objective, rational, and consitently profitable (6 year track record of posting all trades) that there is in this business. The RUclips videos are once per week when the market is closed. You think I'm not going to be ready when the turn comes? I watch every tick, every day. Period. I'm saying that the charts are not showing any turn coming soon. As of now that is a fact. If that changes and it comes sooner rather than later, I'll be all over it immediately because that's what seasoned traders are good at which is changing their mind on a moment's notice and acting on it.
He said bitcoin would break out to the upside last week, instead bitcoin took a big dump I am betting on the opposite side of his calls, this jonny comes late guy is a perfect fade
No, if you actually listened, I said that BTC was a buy IF it broke a certain price on the upside of $72,755. It did not do that, hence no trade so far.
Stock market haters are in SHAMBLES! Let them eat cake and ice cream, cause I'm BUYING baby! Companies are extremely profitable, have outstanding moats, and have fantastic long term prospects. If you hate this market, you simply have NO IDEA what you're talking about!
@ Dre2Dee2,.. Yup,. I was BUYING MORE ( Option income, Div Paying, CEF /ETF's in Mag 7 ) all Last week, myself ( DCA'ing for last, 3 Years ) and,.. NOW,.. Holding thru, the Election !
@@SlowTurtle28 If you want diversification to mitigate risk (which is a good idea), you get that from your portfolio allocation, NOT the market itself Your portfolio is diversified as a strategy. The market has no reason or doesn't care to be diversified, or not diversified, or whatever. It's not a problem for the market to be heavily lumped into one area of a handful of companies, that's how ALL success in general works. Greatness is not evenly distributed, it is a handful of exceptional people/things
Peter seems to be a natural lecturer / teacher. Like a PhD lecturer teaching trend investing at a university.
Yup, one of my youtube favorites
Yes........but.....better.
I gotta get a tweed jacket with those elbow patches, maybe.
He is also a great trader
Peter has a genuine love/concern for his students. 1 Corinthians 13: 4-7
No other trading teacher on RUclips comes even close. His relentless pursuit of the truth reminds me of Jordan Peterson.
I'm so glad RUclips finally showed me your videos. I've been watching other technical analysis programs and it did not show me your excellent program til now.
Your weekend videos are top shelf
Peter great video. I couldn't help but be reminded of the old adage "It's Different This Time" when you were discussing todays market vs previous markets. We shall see, but I like to put a little more faith in history than solely on recency bias. Time will tell what happens , but the hardest thing for traders to do is to make the shift. I believe you don't crash from highs, but you do crash from previous support and that is where the sellers will live.
time will tell what happens???.....REALLY????....TRADE THE TAPE...STOP GUESSING AND HEDGE YOUR ACCOUNT...NOT YOUR OPINION
Ok, what is the catalyst for a massive crash?
Man oh man. Can I just say that I love the way Peter thinks? I could listen to his explanations all day long! No BS. Just simple, straightforward explanations with solid foundations.
I'm very sincere when I say this, that this makes my day. That people get it and it's actually resonating with someone. Thanks for watching!
@@therealshadowtrader I think Abraham Lincoln said it best, "What a joy to be understood."
@20:42 Peter Your saying the top chart is on a 30-min time. FYI The screen shows on the top right as (5 D 5m)
Yes I noticed that too. Inquiring minds want to know Peter...
@@SalvatorePalombizio Such is life SH^& happens hehehehe.. Still his content is TOP.
Thanks, Peter! Appreciate the analysis of the different sectors and their movements.
The tech rally has been largely propelled by massive call options buying with short expirations. Aapl and nvda call buying at strikes at or slightly above the money have gone bonkers. This has been going on for weeks, most prominent on tuesdays and wednesdays. Call volumes are in millions of contracts, while open interest just a fraction of that. So mechanical gamma squeeze is a large component of the rally. If you multiply the call option volume on any given tuesday or wednesday by 100, i notice that most of the daily trading volume in the underlying is likely due to delta hedging. I will continue to observe this in the weeks to come but it looks like the tail has been wagging the dog for quite a while already.
facts. that is a part of the rally for sure.
So how does that potentially play out over the medium to long term? Or is it just a short term phenomenon that has no effect on long term other than stretching the price farther from the mean?
There are many articles and youtube channels that explain a gamma squeeze better than I ever will be able to. In essence, it indicates, that the rapid price movement is due to feverish speculation in options rather than organic accumulation of the underlying stock. It is impossible to foresee when it is going to end, as it can keep going for weeks and even months. Recent examples were gme, amc and tsla until those bubbles burst. What eventually happens is the market makers raise the price of the calls so much that the demand naturally declines, because call buyers start losing money, because they get eaten by theta and iv crush. Then a reverse gamma may occur, when folks start piling into put options. Once the put volume begins exceeding the call volume, time to watch for reversal. This is what I am doing now. Watching for signs and signals of change. Upside potential limited from my perspective. Short entry not there yet, but coming soon to a theater near you.
@@joannahuc1318 my understanding was GME and TSLA were fueled buy short interest? I would assume there is very little short interest yet in NVDA? Seeing less than 2% (lagging data, probably getting higher). But it still works essentially the same when there is little short interest? Seems like zero day options have really changed thing on price action.
You are correct. Initially, amc and gme was a garden variety short squeeze, which later morphed into a gamma squeeze, as demand for higher and higher call strike prices started to heat up. Nvda and aapl are gamma squeezes, read up on it. There may be little short interest, but intense demand for call options, which forces the market maker to buy stock to delta hedge the options they have to sell to meet the demand.
Really like these weekend update videos thank you.
Glad you like them! Thanks for watching.
Interesting perspective.
In the near-term, I agree that we might see a relief rally for sectors that have been beaten up, like those in XLE. But, I disagree with his longer assessment. The SPDR ETF’s are telling us that we are in the late expansion stage of the business cycle. Tech are the last to fall at this stage of the cycle. But we are already seeing weakness in oil. Oil is a leading indicator. It will be interesting how the market digests the news about AAPL and AI next week. Will it be the final hoorah?
Been a fan since the tastytrade days with you and Brad. Market internals (the quad) and the market profile really was a game changer for me. Love these videos man, keep them coming please.
thanks for supporting so long........much appreciated!
I always learn from your presentations! Thank you, Peter! SammyJo
Watching the market's ups and downs shows how quickly things can change. In the market, strategic, informed trading isn't a choice; it's a must. Remember, caution is as crucial as ambition here. This dedication to continuous learning is inspiring...managed to grow a nest egg of around $87k to a decent $246k... I'm especially grateful to Jane Nina Pickett tactics and strategies.
Thanks for sharing, I just did a web check with her full names mentioned
It's truly refreshing to see a comment about Jane Nina Pickett. I've also had the pleasure of working with her for several months after discovering more about her online. She has a knack for simplifying complex issues, whether it's a market surge or decline. Her approach consistently keeps you ahead of the curve. I'd call her a guru, for sure.
Nice to see this here, Jane's understanding of market indicators is impressive. She knows exactly when to enter and exit trades for maximum profit. her siignals are top notch
Do mushroom clouds raise or lower interest rates?
“Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.” - Irving Fisher 1929
What date in 1929? How few days before the landslide?
Irving said this circa 3rd September 1929...Black Monday was 28th October.
And what did Isaac Newton say?
@@Alexander-Bunyip what goes up...
Nothing but a highly speculative bubble built on nothing
@@The-Bankster that's been the story since mid covid but the market keeps climbing, that's why it's so important to trade what is.
Great stuff as always!
Thank you, Peter!
Thank You Shadow Trader, The whole team is great and you all help us much. Very appreciated!
Many thanks for your analysis Peter!
Great Channel. Appreciate the info!
Great in depth analysis!
Our markets changed when they started printing $trillions. Old correlations and charts aren't working in this full blown artificial system. Fiscal dominance is also throwing off traders and investors. Best reason ever to focus on the trend of price and not talking head opinions.
word.
Thank you, peter
Thanks Peter
🥂 to you being on point about today.
cool touch screen. what is it ?
Excellent presentation. Ratio trades and risk reversals are excellent trades if you understand where you take heat and odds go against the trade. . Best part is you don’t need much movement to make a nice profit with lots of ways to adjust to get debit back.
Some of these sectors have done nothing is 3 years. I think we should discuss that.
Not possible. That would spoil the story the squiggly lines are "foretelling".
All of, the Other,.. fairly "Good" Stocks,.. ARE Playing,.. "Catch Up" !
Peter IS,. Correct and THIS, Bull run,. AIN'T Over, as inflation and interest Rates ARE, Headed, DOWN Plus, IT's an Election Year ( Pandering to, the Masses for Votes ! ).
Gotta make, the Dim's, "look good" for the People with, Short Memories,.. LOL
LOL @ 7:56 ...... "its different this time"
Yes I noticed the same thing and chuckled.
WELL,. Yes,. IT is,. "Different" this Time,.. as We are at, ALL Time HIGH's,.. and we are, PROBABLY, going,.. HIGHER !
Enjoy,.. the Ride !!!
Peter. Nicely done. Staying with Meta, I would not buy the stock due to price itself. I would consider a longer duration bullish synthetic at relative no cost. IV is a bit high so calls by themselves would not work for me as theta decay is too much for my blood. 440 call using 16 august DTE, with selling the 445 put. For each long call then sell 8 puts. This gives in essence free trades. The OTM puts should generate a nice theta decay for income as the META goes north. This is my opinion on how to trade META. Exit at 50% profit and close if the trade goes the wrong way such as the call dropping to 50 delta. Cheers.
Good content!
Good to have you back Peter you’re a legend
A credible argument 👍
Peter, what would happen if the Fed focus on quantitative ease measures instead of rate cuts?
I would be interested in your indicators BUT I pay for Wealth Charts only.
hey peter huge fan! howcome you like to use SPX vs ES to chart your levels for these videos, thanks a bunch for the insight!
Good question. I always use cash markets for T/A because they are more "real" for lack of a better word. They are the footprint of what institutions and larger players are doing. The real commitment to position comes between 9:30 and 4pm ET. Not in algo driven futures gaps overnight.
@@therealshadowtrader thanks for the reply and enlightening us! Ive always wondered that, you rock man!
This is great! If you have a small account in IRA, is there an alternative way to sell put and call? Meta is a high price stock and selling 3 calls and puts would take a lot of fund to cover in case stocks goes to zero and infinite loss possibly to infinity on the call side from broker perspective
Yes, you would construct an unbalanced butterfly. So instead of your structure being +1/-3, yours would be +1/-3/+2
if I need to roll out an option but have no more trade days left can I still roll this?
I think this is the first video I watched of someone explaining why the stock is NOT going down, everyone else saying there is a crash coming.....every day for the last 2 years.
Awesome video...As beginner I learned so much and understand things going on around the market...All eyes on MGK to break down as I don't trust several gaps-up from this FAKE bullrun...I bought VIX etf to profit from the upcoming correction....Thank you
Where do you find such a big screen with touch feature? Ty
Dell sells this (or at least they used to)
The market can stay crazy longer than you can keep your sanity.
I saw the other day from two relatively prominent tech analysts that say based on the full daily chart pattern, that S&P gap is a wave 5 exhaustion gap. And not a starting breakaway gap or a wave 3 mid gap. Noted by relative breadth. Of course on a smaller minute based chart might be something else. But this is why the risk is high at this point to see what the market does. we shall see. Btw... we need more of your analysis on this shadowtrader channel!!
The problem with those "wave" guys is that they always seem to be resetting the count. Thanks for watching!
@@therealshadowtrader Absolutely
What is weak in a "weak low"? Is the bull market weak or is support weak, or is downward momentum weak?
A wealk low is one where prices have been before recently. Essentially a double bottom. Those types of lows are weakened and more apt to break on the next retest. Check out shadowtrader.net/glossary1
Charting is an art , not a science... meaning believe at your own risk
Great video, with all the supporting evidence you suggested showing the market will continue to go up, gives me every reason I need to be BEARISH, the markets main Objective is to go opposite of were it should and screw/trick everybody as per usual, so i will be SHORTING the upcoming weeks! cheers!!
Oh! I hear ya! I get it now! Silly me. THIS TIME IT'S DIFFERENT. 🤦🏻♂
Sort of, but more like "don't fight it while it's happening and don't assume that it has to stop anytime soon"
@@therealshadowtrader Even Bulls need to take breather once in a while in order to load up again.
This seems like the worst period. Even the market are now very unpredictable. Started investing recently when the market prices were a bit high,today I am more than 60% down!.
Don’t be confuse buying the dip in a bear market, with guaranteed future returns. Just because that company is down 60%+ from ATH does NOT make it a sound long-term investment. Make sure you’re investing in great companies. kudos to kiana rachel
I agree just reached my goal of $500k monthly trade earnings. Setting realistic goals is an essential part of trading.
How can someone know a professional broker when legit once are hard to find this days
She's recognized as 'Mrs Kiana rachel . One of the finest portfolio managers in the field. She's widely recognized; you should take a look at her work.
I agree. Based on personal experience working with an investment advisor, I currently have $1m in a well diversified portfolio, that has experienced exponential growth. It is not about having money to invest in stocks,but also you need to be knowledgeable, persistent, and have strong hands to back it up.
QQQ is going to pull back because megacap tech will pull back, not because the other sectors are weak
thanx
IWM/DIA vs SPY/QQQ... someone's really really really really wrong
What is the risk of selling 3 calls against 1 call and when will you take losses
Depends how far past the short 3 calls you go. Simple math. If the distance between the long strike and the shorts is $10, then you would start to lose money $5 above the short strikes. Think of it this way. If everything goes in the money, then you are holding a long vertical worth $10 and two naked shorts. Thus the naked shorts can only go against you $5 before you start losing money. The only risk is that you "go there" too quickly. Charts show us how stocks move over time and how far they go. You also have T/A at your disposal which the options pricing models don't recognize at all. So when I do this my short strikes are always up against resistance levels.
Intro is intense. I dropped my shorts. lol
The lack of breadth can last awhile. And probably will till fall. Before the divergences play out. I take note of this for my investment portfolio, but trading I strictly follow price and confirmations.
Looking up, but realizing the fall could be spectacular.
Could be but absolutely NO point trying to position for that ahead of it. It won't go limit down on day one. If it did, we have much bigger problems than the stock market.
Technically maybe yes. Markets come down during panic. (no) Public panic cannot be predicted...
Breadth reading is terrible..market is led by tech please look at iwm divergence
10 years of money printing. Economics 101 . More money chasing the same amount of goods and services
The only way the market will fall is if the Fed announces a rate cut.
Umm, I think you got that backwards
@@The-Bankster No I don't, the markets been pricing in rate cuts this whole time. Profits will be taken on that day.
@@The-Bankster The Market has priced in 7 rate cuts already. The first thing people will do when it's announced is take profits.
No he doesn't. @robertr.9882
It's weird how people don't realize that yet. Markets like this drop on rate cuts when they finally happen.
SCRIPTS ARE FIRE!!!!!! I use them everyday. They are so useful. Worth Every Penny.
The AI bubble will go on for another 20% then a rotation like always
The "market" is not making new all time highs! A handful of stocks are!
King Peter
Money is pouring into Tech, in part because of AI, but also a big part of that, that is being ignored, is anticipation of rate cuts. Rates cuts are bullish for tech! Always has been.
SPY 635 EOY 24’
Lol hyper bullish. I think 5800 is more likely.
Coming out of covid I saw a commenter calling for spy 400 and others called the prediction "cute" and "naive"
Look out 600 maybe next year...
While I agree there’s no strong indication that a major downturn is imminent, technology alone cannot sustain this rally much longer. All the megacap tech stocks are already at or very near all time highs with overstretched RSIs and P/E ratios. Apple and NVDA did the heavy lifting this week. Both companies currently boast record historic valuations. Who’s going to be the next savior next week? Microsoft? Google? Amazon? They are already overstretched as well. So unless the breadth expands soon, it is more likely that we are heading for a correction than buyers stepping in once again and taking tech stocks to another level of blue sky territory.
High prices alone do not cause pullbacks. Money is pouring into tech in anticipation of rate cuts. Rate cuts are bullish for tech! Always have been. Why would you buy anything but tech when you know a rate cut is coming? That’s a big part of what is driving this rally. It’s not just AI. It’s market fundamentals that go back decades. Part of the normal market cycle.
@@TheNativeTwohigh prices absolutely do cause pullbacks. It's called buyer shut off
@@The-Banksterbuyer shut off isn’t that the price is high, it’s that there are no buyers at that price. You can have high prices and still have buyers at that price. That’s why i said high prices alone do not cause pullbacks. You need high prices, no buyers, and sellers to come in aggressively. No buyers and no sellers, price is flat and volume is low. Happens all the time when price gets high and doesn’t cause a pullback.
Remember too that buying and selling alone do not cause price to move. It’s aggressive buying and selling (buying near the ask or selling near the bid) that causes price to move.
The 3 of you in this little thread totally get it. This is the coversation that I wish more people were having . Kudos to all 3 of you.
@@therealshadowtrader I have a feeling that when the rate cut finally happens, tech will sell off (could be completely wrong about that though). Kinda like when a stock announces a split months in advance, and the stock rallies for those months, then when the actual split happens, the stock dips. All the pressure and anticipation is released, people take profits, etc.
Just something to keep an eye on…
You're right, end of June it will come down, S&P 500, according to it's future. So plenty of time to get out.And don't forget to get in at 5100 for that final last run up, if you dare of course...😛
You have to look at the 4 hour for unfilled gaps. If it was filled pre market, it won’t show on the daily chart. How do you not know this? I’ve only been trading 2 years and I figured it out by looking at past charts and watching charts the last 2 years.
I keep telling people chasing returns to buy MGK instead of VTI, but nobody listens.
Why do you state 'we know lower interest rates are coming' as if it's not a matter of probabilities but as if it's settled fact? There is and has been much debate on the issue and the lower rates camp has been wrong for years now (see fed funds future in December 23 vs now and then repeat that same exercise for the last couple of years). Check out a show like Fast Money where they actually have some competing opinions on this topic. Presenting it as settled fact unnecessarily diminishes your credibility. I would suggest simply adjusting the wording on rate cut discussions to allow for other probabilities than the scenario you appear to be tied to as the most probable.
I believe the gov't cannot afford the rates it's currently paying on new debt that it is issuing weekly. Cuts are coming.
Dogma vs objective probability analysis @@therealshadowtrader
Fed meeting was somewhat hawkish.
This will age like that Bitcoin is about to explode video.
there are back spreads and there are ratio spreads, there is no ratiobackspread
Mkt Cap / GDP =2. Never seen before in history. Not even close for that matter. Thats why many dont believe it.
Iwm falling off hard
what is the point of equal weight? Comparing company that makes $80B in a Q to company that is losing money and saying avarage earnings per Q is $40B is absolutely stupid. Do you compare free speech in Zimbabwe and USA and say free speech is avarage when you combite two contries together?
interesting take.....
Elections
YUP,.. they will Be, "Pandering" to the Un-educated Masses, FOR,.. Votes !!! ( The masses, usually HAVE, a Short Memory ! )
Example,.. Paying off Student Loans and,.. CHEAP Gas / util's, will help with,.. THAT !
how does one keep thin like that?...😂
He's a vegan.
sounds perma-bullish to me
No, perma-objective. when it turns I will turn.
Stocks always come down 😂
D' BEST re-capped. THANK U!🎉
Powell took a rate cut off the table and certainly did not say what you said he sounded like, guessing you didnt pay attention or even watch it. All rate sensitive stocks have been selling off since the meeting. The fed will not and will never cut rates at all time highs. Good lord, going all in cash, the delusional takes from all youtub stock channels are starting the scare me as you all sound the same. Its worse my dad called to tell me hes going all in nvidia with his retirement account this week. "Its different this time" gets a big nope from me
You really should take a trial to my room and you would see that I'm the most objective, rational, and consitently profitable (6 year track record of posting all trades) that there is in this business. The RUclips videos are once per week when the market is closed. You think I'm not going to be ready when the turn comes? I watch every tick, every day. Period. I'm saying that the charts are not showing any turn coming soon. As of now that is a fact. If that changes and it comes sooner rather than later, I'll be all over it immediately because that's what seasoned traders are good at which is changing their mind on a moment's notice and acting on it.
He said bitcoin would break out to the upside last week, instead bitcoin took a big dump
I am betting on the opposite side of his calls, this jonny comes late guy is a perfect fade
No, if you actually listened, I said that BTC was a buy IF it broke a certain price on the upside of $72,755. It did not do that, hence no trade so far.
Peter is the best , but you still need a nice haircut
LOL. He is imitating Bill Gates. Billionaire can't afford a comb.
I Perceive a nice spirit in there
🌈
40% of the YTD return of the S&P500 is NVDA!
Good thing I'm heavily invested in NVDA and market indexes! WHOO!
Yup,. It's the Magnif 7 for,.. the WIN !
Earnings of Mag 7, stocks, ARE,.. "Good" !
Inflation / interest Rates,.. Headed ,.. DOWN !
35 Trillion, Natl DEBT, interest payments ARE thru, the Roof and, CAN'T,.. Continue !
The FED HAS TO,. "Cut",.. several, Times !
Stock market haters are in SHAMBLES! Let them eat cake and ice cream, cause I'm BUYING baby!
Companies are extremely profitable, have outstanding moats, and have fantastic long term prospects. If you hate this market, you simply have NO IDEA what you're talking about!
Not sure I agree with that. 6 stocks making 37% of the Nas is asking for trouble. Enjoy the rally but keep the stop losses ready.
You keep right on buying. And don't ever use a stop loss because this Market will never stop going up. Guys like you are where I make my money!
@ Dre2Dee2,..
Yup,. I was BUYING MORE ( Option income, Div Paying, CEF /ETF's in Mag 7 ) all Last week, myself ( DCA'ing for last, 3 Years ) and,.. NOW,.. Holding thru, the Election !
@@SlowTurtle28 If you want diversification to mitigate risk (which is a good idea), you get that from your portfolio allocation, NOT the market itself
Your portfolio is diversified as a strategy. The market has no reason or doesn't care to be diversified, or not diversified, or whatever. It's not a problem for the market to be heavily lumped into one area of a handful of companies, that's how ALL success in general works. Greatness is not evenly distributed, it is a handful of exceptional people/things
@@Dre2Dee2 Or a handful of idiots buying at all time highs.