Bitcoin: The 2024 Halving
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- Опубликовано: 14 апр 2024
- Let us talk about the 2024 #Bitcoin halving!
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Just kidding, here's another video about Bitcoin dominance
damn
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@@intothecryptoverse Great video Ben
😂😂😂 you beat me to it
Lol, I've just noticed how real Ben is highlighted and verified
4 dangerous words in market:
This time is different.
same i could say about my love life 😂
Ben: "The Fed doesn't give a flying...you know what."
It was Hawk. They don't give a flying hawk.
Fork. They don’t give a flying fork.
I think you should do 'ROI from halving', rather than ROI from last high. The BTC highs are arguably irrational (so far above fair value), while the halving is directly relevant to supply. I'm not sure if it changes anything, but I grumble when you do ROI relative to the 'last low' or 'last high' especially when the last high was so noisy, and the last lows have been black swans. I don't know, it would just be interesting to see some analysis on the tangle effects of the halving - on-chain miner address supply pre-/post- halving, price pre/post, btc-difficulty pre-post.
At this halving BTC is not 60% below the high -- could the issue be the 2021 top was too low? If BTC had reached top red regression band in late 2021, now BTC (63K) would be around down 60% below the high.
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Smart analogy I say.
I think so. I believe FTX and the market manipulation they were doing was a large reason for the double top last time. When people thought it was going to 100k, that's probably where it "should" have been.
i think the 2021 top was to much meme hype in the market, with musk all on board he was manipulating the markets.
Love u Ben!
I am thankful I have followed the idea of this time is not different. because time is on our side, the more delayed the top, the more the price will be...
Great job! Keep it up!
Great video
thanks ben!
Very informative as always and a great refresher - thanks!
Thanks Ben 👍
tks so much from brazil!
Just awesome video! Thanks Ben.
The day we all have been waiting for.
I just got home from work and I can’t wait to hear this. Thanks Ben 💪🏽
Thank you🙏
Thank you Ben! Great information as always. Next few months will be interesting.
Tks from Brazil
You are THE man! thank you Ben!
24:01 "...bitcoin really is dependent somewhat on monetary policy." I wonder if that'll be even more true going forward, now that the ETFs are available.
Likely even more so.
Great video. Thank you.
Beautiful
Todays content tastes loooot better than always comparing BtcEth and other pairs. Thank you for that!
seems in line with my strategy of wait and see
this might be your best video in terms of simple explanations yet.
thank you,
my plan is to DCA, 20% exposure already, waiting for next bigger move up / down to continue
I'd love to see you talk about more entry / exit strategies that you think make sense
We've never had approved ETF's before. And today also in Hong Kong. Apples and Oranges?
I love these long videos.
Ben is the best. Thanks you :)
Love to hear your 5th halving prediction Ben :)
blackrock and etf approvals make it different, don't expect it to be the same
Ben, your analysis is really amazing. I really respect you for your ability to identify all the chart patterns.
If you measure the previous cycle top potential if it hadn't double topped (the top of red line), then in a way, we are still 60% below the previous potential top.
Whatever comes to pass, the analysis offered is nothing short of dazzling as most often.
Any thought on mining cost post halving? Some place saying average cost of mining will be around 80k post halving. Historically have not spent significant time below this cost.
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BTC oversold on 4hour RSI. Time to buy more
Benjamin, what do you think about market cipher indicator
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Watched from start to finish. Another beautiful video. Your analysis is very sensible and shines so much light on the market. Would love to see a video about the fair valuation in 2028 to look back on once we get there.
Benjamin cowen is just the best honestly never saw a nother guy with more facts and informations!
The ETF money cant be ignored. i thunk we just chop here til we rip to new highs. no reason for it to be any more complicated
Maybe it seems like it is left translated because last bullrun had no real blow off top. If you‘d measure -60% from the Upper boarder of the red band, it fit better. We also could drop in the next few days to 50-55k and we reach the middle of green band. So… this cycle is maybe on track and last one was scewed
Where are we compared to the prior top adjusted for inflation/money supply?
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Great! I had the same biases based on Elliot+MACD+EMA and I'm glad that Ben put it all together in a professional way!
Salut from Ukraine!
Something, something, bitcoin dominance goes up/down (thanks for another video Ben, looking forward to this one)
Love it, I wish my brain could see the forest , I just see trees….if we get one more pump I’ll sell a few alts to buy back at discounts and be set for either cycle. Thanks
You always measure from the previous cycle peaks. If you measure from the previous cycle bottoms, the pre halving moves are in line with this move % wise.
Miner production cost is also a thing to look for. Currently its around 30k which will change after the halving. It will then be at 60k
I think its healthy for the market when we get a summer lull. In autumn up only 😁
One of the better videos lately
I think any metric measured in dollars ideally needs to be inflation adjusted for comparing cycles, especially the last cycle.
Super Ben...Great analysis as always. Wish I'd have followed your steady advice sooner to be honest. It's too easy to get carried away in this market. You are always a solid voice of reason, and get way too much grief from much less well informed people, despite always backing up your analysis with the best data and unemotional analysis! . Thanks again
Hi Ben, thanks for the video. I’d to know your prediction for BTC price at the next halving in 2028.😊
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Price might be elevated but maybe the cycle timing isnt. Maybe its still a 4 year cycle regardless if the price is here or there
Yes but if you count the days from last cycle top to top. It was 1000k days. Just the halving is in different spots
You give me confidence to hold my short
Ben, last summer we expected a cool off… but did not happen.
This summer it seems to be happening. But there is a chance it will be less intense. Basically wrecking both the sides by being something in between.
Last summer the market did cool off. We stayed between $25k-$30k for like 6 months
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Rally on Wayne. Rally on Garth. Love you Ben. We're not worthy.
If we only look at the technical analysis the peak was actually april 2021 and not in november 2021..
Not sure I buy you're thesis that we are currently in QT. Balance sheet run off is not QT. No one is stepping in to buy bonds they are simply expiring off the fed's balance sheet.
Hey everyone,
I've been watching this video and I have to say, I'm really intrigued by the idea of a left-translated peak. It's definitely something I'll be keeping an eye on.
But what I really want to talk about is the fair value of Bitcoin. Back in 2020, this guy predicted that Bitcoin would be worth $40-$50k by the fourth halving. And guess what? We're almost there!
Now, I know some people are saying that this cycle is different, and that we're not going to see a top in 2025 like we did in previous cycles. But I'm not so sure.
If you look at the ROI after the low, this cycle is right where it was two cycles ago. And if you look at the risk metric of Bitcoin, it's actually higher than it was during the last two halvings.
So while I'm not completely ruling out the possibility of a left-translated peak, I think it's more likely that this cycle is playing out just like it always has. And if that's the case, we could still see a top in late 2025.
What do you guys think?
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Thank you for your knowledge and time Ben you are an asset to this space uk
🔥🔥🔥
27:49 well, how recently have these logarithmic regression lines been re-drawn?
28:17 ah
Ben, there is a third option. This time may be completely different because of the ETFs and we may simply have a regular four year cycle, but not the degree of a downturn that we have in the past. We could make it to $350k and not even have a 30% correction. Think about that! That would mess with everyone.
aNOTHER dominance VIDEO YAHEAHH
BTC is now in a different environment. Institutional money makes a big difference and a near supply crunch is also new in the market. Two thing that we could only dream of four years ago… This time the forces in the BTC market are different. We will soon see if this is true or not.
What happens if we do these calculations of bitcoin's cycle adjusted by dollar's real value?
(dollar value adjusted based on inflation rate or m2 money supply, however is appropriate based on your expertise)
All time high doesnt mean much if dollar is worth half the amount right?
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What happened to the “blue t-shirt” sponsorship?😅
Thanks for the great content 👏🏻
One thing that's different about this cycle is the amount of inflation to be factored into price levels, though the pre halving bull run has still been unprecedented, BTC has not passed it's ATH in real terms which sits around $80K.
Nominal prices still matter as psychological levels, but real prices matter too.
I would love to see a chart with inflation priced in
@@Nick-db1zp It would , before crypto I've been interested in real estate cycles, and it's such a common mistake for people to only look at nominal house prices and conclude they were about to crash every year since 2014.
Difference is that ETF’s are going to launch Bitcoin this time around which wasn’t a factor in previous halvings.
Maybe the answer is somewhere in the middle and we peak q1 2025
Great video, would love to see you have a conversation with Bob Loukas about a left translated cycle
@intothecryptoverse Ben can you start doing 1 to 10 minute videos in layman terms for the folks who dont know alot about data and analytics?
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BTC no way home 😅
Slight difference this cycle…there are 9 new etfs that have sucked in massive inflows..and just the smallest allocation eg 1% of their aum ( currently about 0.18% for blackrock) …price will rocket. Lets see…
to be honest I was expecting a Bitcoin Dominance video
Drop to 45k then explode in next three months 100k
Can you comment on the current geopolitical situation in the world (potential global conflict) and how it may be affecting the price of BTC?
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could all the money printing have made the risk band look different
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Ben, if the miners get crushed due to BTC hitting 40-50k, there will be more scarcity of bitcoin, as they will not produce without profit, this would then drive the price up, in theory no?
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What will be the fair value on the 5th halving?
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Your free Videos are sometimes much more useful than your premium Videos.
What about all the ETFs that are coming or the amount that the current ETFs are buying atm?! So much more buying now….
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Ben, I'm already an existing ITC monthly Premium Member paying $99 per month. but only able to switch to yearly member after next month. May I get the existing member rate for yearly after next month please?
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Hi Ben. You are arguably one of the most well researched crypto RUclipsr out there! Any particular channels you like to watch on RUclips that share crypto content?
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Oh come on, just for fun... Do it again! What do you think will be the Fair Value before the halving in 2028.
You did pretty dam good in 2020!
200K?
I have a headache
But isnt this time a little different with all the ETF's and more $$ flowing in...
Perhaps. But almost every cycle there is a narrative that could “make this time different”. Last time it was big players like Elon Musk tweeting, Microstrategy and talk of a “super cycle”. In 2017 it was Eth, ICOs, and rumors of big partnerships (that never came through).
I’m not saying that this time couldn’t be different. What I am saying, is that I’ve heard these things before.
Wake me when ben start talking about alts
Lame
Lol but for real though, we don't need him too. I'm averaging in already. This year will be fun. Cheers 😊
just buy dont look at the price
🔥👍
My theory is everyone with high conviction that its a left translated cycle are 2nd cyclers with PTSD. I will come back to see this comment to see if all the 2nd cycler sells early.
💪
The Bitcoin Halving: Also known as "The Dominance Doubling"
What if the current "ATH" is entierly explained by inflation, and we are already in line?
hiiiii
time to refit it
Thanks Ben! Do you believe alts bleed lower over the next 6 months?
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Of course they bleed
I feel like your mic gets a little too quiet when you discuss bitcoin dominance