Bond Market Is Crashing (I'm Still Buying)

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  • Опубликовано: 15 дек 2024

Комментарии • 98

  • @rayvinjamuri3913
    @rayvinjamuri3913 2 года назад +18

    Could you do a video discussing things like: comparing the different types of popular index funds (VTSAX, VFIAX, VBIAX, etc), how index weighting works (market weighting vs equal weighting), ETFs vs index funds, what to include in an index fund portfolio (domestic, international, large cap, small cap, tech, etc), how real estate index funds and ETFs fit into the picture, and how different brokerages structure their index funds (Vanguard vs Schwab vs Fidelity vs etc)? Thinking through all these things tends to add a lot of complexity to the point where whenever it comes to picking an index fund, it can easily turn into analysis paralysis. A video on these sorts of questions would be awesome!

  • @jeffhinzman7219
    @jeffhinzman7219 5 месяцев назад

    Thanks!

  • @InfoRanker
    @InfoRanker Год назад +4

    “Less volatility”, I wish, my muni bond ETFs are down 30%

  • @trishmacmillan4646
    @trishmacmillan4646 2 года назад +6

    Why not be in cds instead of bonds? Especially now with good brokered cd rates. Returns are for sure instead of just hoping bonds do well. If one is retired at 60 wouldn’t cds for now be better?

    • @ddyoder
      @ddyoder Год назад +1

      One thing to consider- if weighing CDs vs. Bonds you should look into short term US Treasuries - often same or better return than CDs, you can do short durations like 4week or 8week as well as multi year, and there is no state taxes on US treasury yields … just federal. Compare that to your normal 1099 obligations with a HYSA, CD, etc.

  • @kevink7777
    @kevink7777 Год назад +2

    In the current market, I disagree with your choice of bond funds. All of those funds hold a significant amount of mortgage-backed securities (around 25% of their portfolios). The problem with those mortgage bonds is that as rates go up, fewer people refinance their low-rate mortgages, resulting in lower yielding fund portfolios. When rates go back down, the holders of high rate mortgages will rush to refinance, which again results in lower yielding fund portfolios. Seems like the only time that it makes sense to own a fund with mortgage bonds is when interest rates are steady and not expected to move up or down. A better choice would be Vanguard's VBILX aka BIV which has no mortgage bonds.

  • @SkepticTalk
    @SkepticTalk 2 года назад +3

    Great video but what about VCLT ? It's long-term corporate debt and therefore it has been damaged more from interest rates, but risk vs reward the rewards are much higher too!

  • @thomasvarghese98
    @thomasvarghese98 2 года назад +8

    Great content, as always. Thank you Tae. I do learn a lot from you and appreciate your work.

  • @mariolee8932
    @mariolee8932 2 года назад +6

    What do you say about just holding treasury bills or certificates of deposit? In a similar fashion to bonds, they don't appreciate as rapidly as stocks. However, they don't seem to drop in rising interest rate environments as bonds do. In fact, they thrive.

    • @84rinne_moo
      @84rinne_moo Год назад

      Yes I’ve taken advantage of high CD rates right now and locked in a ladder set up.

    • @etcomehome39
      @etcomehome39 Год назад

      I agree. CD, T bills work great with very low risk.

  • @MrCookding
    @MrCookding 2 года назад +4

    holding bond papers till maturity and buying (trading) bond funds are different.

    • @edbouhl3100
      @edbouhl3100 Год назад +3

      Yet discussions of the two are constantly blended together. Bonds are contracts with set returns. As far as I can tell, bond funds are just another flavor of fund, share value rising and falling on the tides of irrational exuberance and conventional wisdom.

  • @atom4871
    @atom4871 Год назад +1

    Thanks for the great info!

  • @VGHCX
    @VGHCX Год назад +1

    Owning those 3 funds would create some serious overlap in your portfolio. The vanguard total bond market is diversified already.

  • @kevinfestner6126
    @kevinfestner6126 Год назад +3

    I would also recommend preferred stock etfs on top of aggregate bond funds. As you know, preferred stocks behave like a bond, but are a stock.
    You mentioned Paul Volcker. I was alive in those times. If we are rehashing the 70s, again, the inflation went in three bumps from 1967 to 1982. A great area to also invest in are general commodity etfs. They are volatile, but commodities did well in the inflationary 70s.
    Best

  • @cassandragonzalez5660
    @cassandragonzalez5660 2 года назад +3

    I still don't understand the role bonds play in a portfolio. When I look at 5 year returns, it's o.5%. Less than 5 years and it's negative. Can you explain Bonds place in a profolio? With 15 years until retirement, I have a small percentage, but don't understand why.

    • @word42069
      @word42069 2 года назад +3

      because when looking at bonds/bond funds, the principal growth is not the metric to focus on, it is the dividends… but this is also why they are best in tax advantage accounts and only added later into the investing journey.

    • @antilogism
      @antilogism Год назад

      Bonds were pretty worthless going into 2009 but that's changing very fast. Owning bonds is becoming valuable again. Coupon rates are climbing with the funds rate. Also, there are bond funds and bonds themselves. The former tends to be volatile since it loosely tracks the present value, but is unlikely to loose all value. Owning bond the full term pays coupons like clock-work when things go well---but can be risky. As bonds and other instruments get more attractive, it will pull down on the broader stock market so in a way it can add some balance.

  • @salguodrolyat2594
    @salguodrolyat2594 Год назад +1

    When interest rates are high go into bonds. Create a stock screener with Graham type criteria and use it for generating stock picking ideas when there is a stock market downturn.😁

  • @davedarpinian1281
    @davedarpinian1281 2 года назад +3

    I have purchased VGLT and VBILX a year ago following the All Weather Portfolio, which are as you know are way down. If I sell I loose big. If I just hold how many years before around break even?

    • @RichardColwell1
      @RichardColwell1 Год назад

      Well typically you want to just hold on for a long time.

    • @robinspanier7017
      @robinspanier7017 Год назад

      what is your goal with the purchase?
      if your goal is to growth wealth for future you, you are on the right track.
      you might want to simply ignore the daily ups and downs

  • @diderooy
    @diderooy Год назад +2

    Why not buy bonds directly? Is there an advantage to buy these funds over a 10 year Treasury bonds? They have higher yield and a more stable price.

    • @themartdog
      @themartdog Год назад +1

      I might be wrong but I think when you buy into a bond index fund, you can also sell at any time. If you buy bonds directly, you're stuck with them until they mature.

  • @onlythetruth1533
    @onlythetruth1533 Год назад +1

    Excellent information - Clearly explained - Great visuals - Well Done Sir!

  • @jamessaykhamphone9282
    @jamessaykhamphone9282 9 месяцев назад

    What’s the difference between bonds and treasuries?

  • @augustusg857
    @augustusg857 Год назад

    You can also make a bond ladder. Bond ladders deal with mitigating liquidity risk and interest rate risk.

  • @waynewei3380
    @waynewei3380 Год назад +3

    Great content! I have watched several videos and learned a lot about investing. I do have a question about the Bond index fund though. It does not appear these funds have good performance in either long term or short term. I understand the idea of diversification to lower risk, but it seems there are other types of low risk investments available, such as real estate, which may give similar or better return in the long term. What is the value of holding bonds fund in investment portfolio?

  • @jasond6602
    @jasond6602 Год назад +1

    At what age to start converting to bonds at what percent in profolio at what age? Curious on your thoughts. I was 100 percent in vanguard total us market up to age 42 when the market was up during trump years i converted to 10 percent vanguard total bond and 90 percent vanguard total us market. Also thanks for your videos. I appreciate them.

  • @rgarri6396
    @rgarri6396 Год назад

    What we learned from the past, we don’t learn from the past. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. What we don’t now, we don’t know!

  • @BenjaminBeck-tv8uh
    @BenjaminBeck-tv8uh Год назад +15

    I'm quite worried about the current state of the banks. If a bank the size of SVB fails, I am much more concerned. The bank run had a significant negative effect on a friend of mine who runs a startup that is expanding quickly. I drained my bank account of more than $840,000. Since the FDIC only offers protection up to $250K, an implosion could have unfavorable effects. I'm looking to make a stock market investment right now. Anyone have suggestions for how I might proceed?

    • @godof-ou1dw
      @godof-ou1dw Год назад

      We are blind to the fact that banks are also for-profit businesses that are motivated by greed. One of the causes of SVB's bankruptcy was the overleveraging of assets by banks beginning in 2020. Keeping a sizable chunk of money in a bank has never made me feel secure. To put it another way, I make investments through my financial advisor, reap the rewards, and then I spend the money.

    • @harod033
      @harod033 Год назад

      My wife and I were going in the same way. Over the past two years, I've taken money out and invested it with her wealth manager. Over time, I won't be able to match her income, but at least I earn more now. Haha

    • @Igorstravinsky788
      @Igorstravinsky788 Год назад

      @@harod033 Thanks for the advice. The search for your coach was simple. I investigated her well before using her services. Considering her résumé, she appears competent.

  • @PercyY-ib2vx
    @PercyY-ib2vx Год назад

    Long bond at 3 % is too low. I'll start buying only a 4.5 and above. Yes bond dropped a lot but it will never go back to 0 %. This shift will never reverse so it is only safe to buy at much higher rates.

  • @Naut1188
    @Naut1188 9 месяцев назад

    Short term or long term bonds like VLGSX?

  • @chrisbentley71
    @chrisbentley71 2 года назад

    Why not short and ultra short duration bond funds during these times?

  • @tylermeis4981
    @tylermeis4981 2 года назад +5

    The way I see it, the point of having bonds in your portfolio is to have more reliable returns. In that case, why not buy and hold individual government bonds and CDs with which you know exactly how much you will yield to maturity? I feel as though playing on the price of bonds in the market takes away from the assurance that they're supposed to provide.
    PLUS - if you hold a bond fund hoping to benefit from a future fall in interest rates, what is the argument for holding your money there vs stocks? If interest rates fall, stock funds will go up MORE than bond funds.

    • @trishmacmillan4646
      @trishmacmillan4646 2 года назад +2

      I would agree. I prefer the certainty of cds.what is the argument that bonds are better? Good point , about interest rates going down and the stock market going up.

    • @word42069
      @word42069 2 года назад

      in short, you shouldn’t be looking at bond funds for principal growth. they serve an entirely different role in a portfolio. they are vessels for consistent current income via dividends which are the most important consideration in bonds/bond funds besides expense ratio. if you would like to manage many individual bonds and staggered their matures and balance a vast portfolio etc you are more than welcome… but good luck replicating a proper managed bond fund.

    • @tylermeis4981
      @tylermeis4981 2 года назад

      @@word42069 I guess the optimal play depends on what happens from here. You don't need much, if any, diversification to happily bring in 4.5-5% returns from individual CDs in the current environment. Personally, I think that's great because it basically matches historic returns from holding bond funds. However, if bond prices truly skyrocket from here, bond funds could net 7-8% returns. But that's not guaranteed and my preference is simply to make the "safe" section of my portfolio truly safe!

  • @VTI777
    @VTI777 5 месяцев назад

    do you still recommend investing in Vanguard bond ETF BND?

  • @andreal2625
    @andreal2625 6 месяцев назад

    How about holding cash in a money market making 5% rather than bonds?

  • @jimd.2683
    @jimd.2683 2 года назад

    All of these funds appear to be paying below current rates for bonds. SWAGX is only paying 2.6%. How come?

    • @word42069
      @word42069 2 года назад +2

      they’re lagging in nature as they hold a multitude of bonds at different interest rates and maturities.. simply put, they haven’t necessarily turned over the bonds yet to see such high interest rates reflected in their holdings yet. This is where the classification of the bond fund’s maturity (short term, intermediate term, and long term) might come into play as the frequency in which the bonds mature and are turned over is more frequent with short term. that benefits in this current rare bond environment but it is also shorter lived. Naturally, the longer term bond funds tend to be steadier as they are not quite as effected my market fluctuations. Steady dividends for current income is what the bond fund investor theoretically wants… principal growth is not the goal though it is also welcome. Decline is bond value is detrimental only if you are selling it and selling for a loss… then again hopefully you have collected a decent bit of dividends form it before that point. Bond funds are both intuitive and very confusing especially when compared to the relative straight-forwardness of stocks and their dividends. This is part of the reason they make up a balanced portfolio though as they are so different and thus behave and perform differently… which can potentially level out volatile stock holdings. The trade off is a distinct lack of year over year growth compared to most stocks in the long term… hence it is recommended you add them into your portfolio closer to retirement where you should be less concerned about principal growth and more concerned about consistent dividend income while hopefully avoiding having to sell out of the positions themselves for cash. Grow, then coast. Coasting alone will never give you compounding growth you need.

  • @gabrielamartuccisalles370
    @gabrielamartuccisalles370 2 года назад +3

    Tae, great video! I love the content of your channel. Quick question: what is your view between buying Bond Index vs buying actual gov bonds, like Series I?

    • @Smoove_J
      @Smoove_J 2 года назад +3

      I’ve owned both, and I love the stability of directly purchased I-bonds. The face value will never change, and interest is based on the always robust inflation rate. The only catch is you can’t withdraw for the first year, but this is a very long term investment, so no problem there.

    • @MrCookding
      @MrCookding 2 года назад +2

      owning actual bond is fixed income and the other might as well be trading orange juice.

  • @gabrielw7773
    @gabrielw7773 Год назад

    I don't know why you wouldn't buy bonds. You can sell them for a possible capital gain or hold until maturity and get complete principal back plus the interest. The only way you could lose is if you need to sell them in an emergency situation for a loss. So bonds are a no brainer when it comes to the risk of having to sell them in an emergency situation. IMO. What is the likelihood that you would need to sell them in the event of an emergency? If they drop rates then sell them for a capital gain for more than the total amount of the sum of interest. But I will only buy from the entity with a money printer, therefore, Gov't bonds.

  • @moegoggles
    @moegoggles Год назад

    What are your thoughts on TIPS index funds (SWRSX)? Is it worth it to hold a small amount of bond allocation in this? Is it a long term loser and unnecessary complication?

  • @sss1st
    @sss1st Год назад

    Why do you not discuss muni bond funds for high tax folks?

  • @bkozulla5841
    @bkozulla5841 Год назад

    Excellent. Thank you!

  • @peterl2767
    @peterl2767 2 года назад +1

    Great info 👍👍👍

  • @freeroamer9146
    @freeroamer9146 Год назад

    Lots of upside to the bond market right now!

  • @dans685
    @dans685 2 года назад

    Would you suggest holding VBTLX in a taxable account or in a ROTH IRA?

    • @zach.nicholz
      @zach.nicholz 2 года назад

      Dividends are taxable as would be payouts from bonds. Just my opinion but I would vote to hold index funds that track the S&P or tech with lower dividend yields because I do not want to pay taxes on the gains till I sell later on and do not need the dividend income.

    • @celestialsword2146
      @celestialsword2146 2 года назад

      You should always max out your Roth IRA before you invest into taxable accounts

  • @Gumnami_Baba_us
    @Gumnami_Baba_us Год назад

    Great Video. Any pros and cons you would like to share for BMOIX?

  • @mikedy8496
    @mikedy8496 2 года назад

    Great video as always! Which bond etf would you recommend in a taxable account? 🤔

  • @mikebiehn3650
    @mikebiehn3650 Год назад

    So the question remains, why hold bonds till the grief is over? Wait? Be patient? and when rates stop rising pull the trigger? How can a bond fund be a stabilizing asset with continued losses ?

    • @salguodrolyat2594
      @salguodrolyat2594 Год назад +1

      Don't BUY the bonds when interest rates are low in the first place. Keep your cash till the interest rates rise substantially (1000bp at least) then buy the best bonds when the interest rates rise. If you are doing bond funds dollar cost averaging(DCA) is the way to go.😁

  • @TheGooglySmoog
    @TheGooglySmoog 11 месяцев назад

    This was featured in How Money Works.

  • @TheWeekendYogurt
    @TheWeekendYogurt Год назад

    I love your videos

  • @mr.monitor.
    @mr.monitor. Год назад +1

    7 months later and its still falling.

  • @depreciatingasset
    @depreciatingasset Год назад

    Shud we hold treasuries vs t bills vs munis vs total bonds. Bcz treasuries are giving highest yield and are safest

  • @BigBearBloo
    @BigBearBloo 2 года назад +3

    Thanks for the reassurance. I’m still buying too, FXNAX, keeping my portfolio bond balance my target percentage. 😌

  • @kirkm5040
    @kirkm5040 Год назад

    Nooooooooooo bonds when rising rates. Bond investors fooled by falling rates for 40 years!!

  • @MdZiaulHaqueOlive
    @MdZiaulHaqueOlive 2 года назад

    Treasury’s bonds rate is rising

  • @joemeyer2726
    @joemeyer2726 Год назад

    Listen to Buffett

  • @СергейСидоров-я7н

    Всё рассказано доступным языком

  • @genericusername5909
    @genericusername5909 4 месяца назад

    Looking back on bond funds development I doubt my children will be alive when bonds beat saving cash

  • @harism2001
    @harism2001 2 года назад

    2 mil in vti all in today (lump sum). Need 50k per month.
    Age 50. Not taxed as non US
    National.
    Selling 3% every year is doable to achieve that money to retire today? Makes sense? Thank you.

    • @zach.nicholz
      @zach.nicholz 2 года назад +1

      The 4% rule would say that with 2mil invested, you could withdraw $80k/yr safely without every running out of money. The 4% rule has a ton of data and studies backing it up and often times you can get away with more; however, 4% should be the baseline.

  • @skimanfree1073
    @skimanfree1073 Год назад

    which ones are you in?

  • @thomas6502
    @thomas6502 Год назад

    I have a dumb question... is dollar cost averaging in to these funds the most responsible way to gain exposure? (Or is it better to wait for cycles to become obvious... just curious if there's good analysis of the data, I love graphs. 🙂 Also kind of curious what the general thinking is around allocation amounts... for some reason 60/40 comes to mind, but I'm wondering if that's just because I'm old too.) Love your channel Tae. Keep up the great work.

    • @keyemku6399
      @keyemku6399 Год назад +1

      Dollar cost averaging is always the best idea. We are not professional investors and dollar cost averaging still provides good returns. However it is a good idea to hold onto an amount of cash incase of market opportunities (like recessions). But that amount of cash should be what you can spare and shouldn't de-prioritize the power of dollar cost averaging

    • @dennykeaton9701
      @dennykeaton9701 Год назад

      No it isn't

  • @craphead9842
    @craphead9842 Год назад

    The markets are rigged.. Endof.. Tony cuenca

  • @kippsguitar6539
    @kippsguitar6539 Год назад

    Oops

  • @Pisiverarose
    @Pisiverarose Год назад +13

    I'll forever be thankful to you, you've changed my whole life, I'll continue to preach about your name for the world to hear, you've saved me from a huge financial debt with just little investment, thanks so much Mrs Shelia Carr...

    • @Cristine_Forsberg
      @Cristine_Forsberg Год назад

      Amazing that you know her too. It's only been a few months with her, my portfolio has grown tremendously and i've been making alot of profit...

    • @Aaronparkerr
      @Aaronparkerr Год назад

      You invest with Mrs Shelia too? Wow that woman has been a blessing to me and my family.

    • @Aaronparkerr
      @Aaronparkerr Год назад

      Mrs Shelia is a prayer answered, I was at that point of giving up when i met her, she turned the tides around

    • @Douglas_webb
      @Douglas_webb Год назад

      I’m new at this, how can I get hold of your broker ?

    • @Lauren_Munoz
      @Lauren_Munoz Год назад

      I had my doubts at first when i came across her name, took the risk to tryout her strategies, i was mind blown on the huge returns.......

  • @theotherview1716
    @theotherview1716 Год назад

    Is he reading from something

  • @kaosperez444
    @kaosperez444 2 года назад +1

    I know i did not go wrong with FXNAX adding it to my portfolio. FXAIX, FTiHX, FSMDX and FXNAX is my lazy portfolio just started investing a month. Anyways i really enjoy your videos thankyou for all your help i even share your vids with friends and family