Well, this has been the big story of the past week. At long last, Erdogan agreed to pass Sweden's NATO membership to the Turkish Parliament for ratification. (Although it might not happen until October.) But it almost collapsed when the Turkish President suddenly tried to link it to restarting Turkey's EU accession talks. But, while this was never going to happen, is this really the start of a Turkish shift back to its Western partners, as some have suggested? Let me know your thoughts in the comments below.
I would like to translate your videos in Romanian and then send the subtitle file to you so that you cand add it to your videos. How can I send you the file?
Ich denke Erdogan hat den Druck auf die Türkei reduziert. Er steht nicht mehr als Bösewicht innerhalb der NATO dar. Vor allem seine Aufforderung die Ukraine in die NATO aufzunehmen, ist ein cleverer Schachzug. Damit sind die Amerikaner und andere westliche Länder die Bösen, die die Ukraine diesbezüglich nicht unterstützen. Für die Aufgabe seiner Position gegen Schweden hat er im Gegenzug hat er einige Dinge versprochen bekommen. Er hat dennoch nichts zugesagt, außer dem türkische Parlament den Beschluß vorzulegen. Das wird frühestens in etwa 10 Wochen passieren. Er wird genau das Verhalten der Schweden und der USA beobachten und danach handeln. Die USA verweisen bei den Kapfflugzeugen auf den Kongress das macht Erdogan jetzt auch in dem er für die Mitgliedschaft von Schweden in der NATO auf das türkische Parlament verweist. Dass das türkische Parlament dem zustimmt ist nach meiner Ansicht keinesfalls sicher. Ich würde im Augenblick nicht darauf wetten, daß das türkische Parlament dem ohne weiteres zustimmt. Erdogan hat dort im Parlament schwierige Partner in seinem Parteienbündnis (MHP). Die Türkei traut den Amerikanern nicht und wird auch den Prozeß für den Kauf der F16 Kampfflugzeuge genau verfolgen. Für mich ist der Beitritt von Schweden zur NATO keinesfalls eine beschlossene Sache, zumindest noch nicht. DieTürkei wird niemals Mitglied der EU, das weiß Erdogan sehr genau aber mit seinem Vorschlag setzt er die EU unter Druck und will die Zollunion ausweiten und Visafreiheit für türkische Bürger. Bevor das alles passiert, wird Schweden der NATO nicht beitreten können. Die Türkei hat auf jeden Fall Zeit gewonnen und kann den Prozeß weiterhin verzögern. Wenn er ohne diese Zusagen von der EU und der USA diesen Beschluß durch das türkische Parlament bringen will, wird er scheitern.
How would the EU feel if the proposed Turkic block is ever actually brought about? Turkey are clearly looking for trade partners and relationships. They also have oil n gas development plans , global munitions trade and control of critical shipping routes. Time to stop stalling and bring them in to the fold before other options become more appealing economically.
Thanks. I agree. Joining requires too many complex and uncomfortable changes. Erdogan would prefer to keep the talks going, but aim for other things, as you say.
Visa-free access to the EU, even if for just 30 days at a time, in parity with the Balkan countries would be seen as a huge achievement, even by Erdogan haters in Turkey. But I can't see anyone managing it for Turkey in the near future. The Balkans countries are tiny compared to Turkey's population.
@@Siranoxz unlikely for all but Turkey does have a "special passport" which has much better access including visa free to EU. I could see something similar which would be more expanded and open to more people in society. Those more likely to be "trusted" e.g. with a degree or a high level job. Difficult to manage but since it's kind of already been done something similar might happen again. On EU side they could grant to Turkish citizens with other residency. Or at the least simplified processes for those people with trusted citizenship/residency - e.g. UK, US. Mexico already does this for UK residency permits and it would still be a vote winner for Erdogan since they get to vote in Turkish elections
This channel is easily number one for me in international politics. The topics never feel clickbaity or sensationalized, the facts and knowledge are so clearly presented with evidence and experience to back them up. I really appreciate this channel, I don't know anywhere else that has given me such good overviews on what is happening overseas. Thanks for the great work!
@@falsevacuum4667 well many people say they're profesers that's not what I go by you could tell he knows his stuff I first heard about James in the 90's during the yugoslav wars and I haven't heard a bad word about him sure he leans sides on issues but we all do.
@@bilic8094 Some politicians literally boast about how little they know of geopolitics. Sadly, many voters deliberately support populist politicians who are intentionally ignorant.
Notice on the map how all the conflict zones are right around Turkiye. Ukraine in the North, Balkans in the West, Iraq and Armenia/Azerbaijan in the East, Syria in the South.
@@mv_5878 maritime zone between greeks and the turks is a joke and we will dispute that until Greece and EU gives in. things may not sort out in our life time so don't hold your breath, after all, we just started our military industrial sector.
Personally I don't think anything has changed. Russia pissed him off by backing off some of it's commitments in Syria and Erdo played this gambit. I don't think how they feel about the west in general has changed nor will this be some beginning of a realignment. They will sway one way but not go too far, then sway the other way and not go too far. That is essentially their policy. Quite frankly it's the only real available position to them to play. So they play it.
I have long advocated a settlement. And it will be needed before Turkey could ever hope to join. But we have a framework for a solution. A bizonal, bicommunal federation. However, this requires agreement by both communities.
@@andrigeogiou8420 You mean the SAFETY AREA of Undepended North Cyprus for sure. As a result of permanent greek attacks in the past. Did they excuse already?
@christkoenigweg A result of permanent attacks ,from the BAD Greeks ..! well .. you need to learn more about of what really happened . Ask and Mr.James ,about .. The Turkish Cypriots, they actually took the arms against their own state. Against our common state , the Republic of Cyprus , back from 1963 -67 , following instructions from Turkey. How ,you think , even Today , the nation of Turkey ,deals with the Kurdish of PKK . Does it gives them ..chocolates ?
I would not be quite as pessimistic. I do think Erdogan got more out of that than "just" F-16s and some pretty pictures with EU officials. I believe in the short term there might be more talks between both sides, and Erdogan might see the current climate in a way that the West becomes even more reliant on Türkiye than before, in a security sense. He might see the West as an opportunity to deal with economic woes in the country and to appease them might as well make some concessions that will bring him closer to the EU. After the war, it is very much in the interest of the West to pull him as closely as possible into the Western alliance, so I could see some sort of higher level talks in the medium term.
No western return if youve followed edrogan for years this is how he plays politics edrogan being edrogan ambitions driven by turkish and islam intrest
@@JamesKerLindsay whoa a foreigner knowing those names is a bit of a surprise! such a weird country of politics isn't it? glad to know more people know our stuff 😁
Mindblowing that the Greek Cypriots were accepted into the EU despite 76% of them rejecting the island’s reunification plan. Meanwhile the Turkish Cypriots, 65% of which voted in favour of the Annan Plan, are still inhumanely isolated to this day.
Turkey was promised that the Cyprus issue would not become an obstacle for its membership. While the Turkish Cypriots voted in favor of the Annan plan, the Greek Cypriots voted against the solution of solving the Cyprus issue. Due to Greece's blackmail to veto the accession of new Member States, the Greek part was still awarded with EU membership.
You're correct there, but even if the Cyprus issue was solved, Turkey wouldn't join the EU. It's in West Asia and has a lot of influence, as you know, from Islam, and it would be the country with the largest EU population and with borders with Middle Eastern states. Would you want to admit Turkey if you were France or Germany? Sure, the Cyprus issue was hypocrisy, I agree.
Thank you for a very informative and well-rounded video. I'm Greek-Cypriot and most of the news around Turkey often come with a certain tone. even with that, I struggle to understand how the EU or the West in general see any reliability in Turkey. Erdogan during the election period was making threats for invading Greece, a NATO member, earthquakes come and now they are friends again. He makes this move, and says that the new F16s will not be used against Greece, when they have violated greek airspace numerous times in the past. I understand it's all part of diplomacy but it's beyond me. can you provide some context to the story that came out as well about Cyprus being presented as 'coordinates' due to Turkey's demands?
Thanks. It was just a short 10-15 minute video. Entire university courses can be taught on Turkish politics and Turkey-EU relations. I had to cut out large amounts of information. But hopefully I got the main points across.
Would it be the case that Erdoğan exchanged Sweden's admission to NATO for the recognition of the TRNC? It would seem logical from his point of view if in fact they are not interested in joining the EU, and it would be a "solution" for one of Turkeys main geopolitical issue in the area
…Division which is currently the case, maybe yes but not recognition, as the Cyprus stalemate is kept & well maintained by the West cause it serves them so Mr Souvlaki; if A wanted it fixed, now would be the time to force TR to sod off from the occupation of Cyprus, there you go; Cyprus problem solved, as Erdo’s economy is in dire straits…
When discussing Turkey-EU relations, it is a significant achievement to not mention the migration issue. Shouldn't we talk about the agreements between the EU and Turkey to accommodate Syrian refugees and the billions of euros that the EU has provided to Turkey?
I did mention it. But here’s the thing: in any video I do there are any number of topics that I have to cover. I can’t cover everything in detail. So I end up with a long list of things that one viewer or another felt I should have covered. In these situations, I ask that people consider whether, in total, I was broadly right with my analysis and conclusions.
@@JamesKerLindsay Oh, immigration? No, it's not just 'one of the issues' in Turkey-EU relations, it's the star of the show! It's significant enough to have those lovely democratic European governments cozy up to an authoritarian leader - who would've thought? Apparently, the EU isn't looking for a democratic partner, no, they're in the market for a loyal guard dog. But of course, you're well aware of this little open secret, aren't you?
Politics It is a endless discussion, you will never find the right answers. It is not why, how or whatever. Politics is definitly not mathematics don't search for logic answers you will not find it.
You can understand How hard to live in Turkey. You can understand We have lived a lot of comlicated hard and unbelieveble situation You can not even imagine. So u should respect our decisions. If you really want to understand this hard impacts the only way is experience it. But that is impossible at least for now. EU, NATO, UK all of them is trying to make a pressure on our county. All they want from us to remain stable. Not improve ourselves, not decrease our anything. Whenever we attmep to increase some good topics, whenever we wanted to raise something they tried to stop us. So you dont expect us to love this groups right. But at least yhey could've respect us instead of try to stop us.
Sorry, but this isn’t really the case. Turkey’s partners have put up with any number of actions that stand against the principles and values of its partners. You say that its partners should respect its decisions. OK. But if those decisions stand against its partners then surely it should do the honourable thing and leave? As long as a Turkey wants to remain in those bodies, it has to accept the rules.
@@JamesKerLindsay I understand that. Thank you. I want to add something tho. Everytime we fit in all rules. They add new rule to the desk. Or I am wrong at this point? I know Erdogan looks like he doesn't really want join that union. But even if he wants, European Union comes up with a new condition every time. I respect to you sir. You are well educated person about this topics I know. I don't want to be disrestpectful. But When you born and live in middle east, you become a little bit prof in politicis. I think we both know EU doesn't want Turkey to join there. They use Turks as a trump card to get the Turks to do their own things around the middle east with this rules. Sorry for broken English but I tried my best
@@yusufsemihkurt3240 Thanks. I fully agree that the EU has often behaved very unfairly towards Turkey. But, again, Turkey hasn’t made it easier. The autocratic tendencies of Erdogan have been a gift for anti-Turkish voices in the EU. As for the condition of membership, these are the same for every candidate country. Turkey isn’t singled out. I know it seems that way, but I don’t think it is.
Climbdown is bit of a strong word, and certainly not applicable. But, mostly I agree he has changed his stance, but it cannot be viewed separately from everything else. He pushed his previous position, when he was facing offensive positions from others, but he never left the Western camp. His change in stance reflects the fact that Turkey believes in the West, and is willing to be Cooperative provided they don't continue to behave like idiots.
A new start? I doubt it. A continuation of the same old policy. Always seem open to alternative relationships, until a better deal comes along. Erdoğan will always follow what he perceives as Turkey and Erdoğan's interests. He has always been mercurial, and that is not going to change.
I would actually tend to agree. But I do wonder if the state of the economy is so bad that this will constrain him - until it improves and he can do what he wants again. But I have heard that it is on the brink of a crisis.
@@JamesKerLindsay A fair point, my only quibble is the idea that it is on the brink of crisis, I'd say it's been in full on crisis for a couple of years. Right now, the main opportunity for growth, to my limited knowledge admittedly, is tourism. With Russian tourism to the rest of Europe restricted, that has made Turkey massively attractive to Russian tourism. While I expect Erdoğan to continue bargaining with the west, I doubt he can afford to alienate Russia too much. Our Lukashenko?
May Allah SWT bless Turkey and its beautiful people from Pakistan 🙂🇵🇰🇹🇷🤩😍. Mashallah mashallah mashallah marhaba marhaba love respect and support Turkey and its beautiful people from Pakistan 🙂🇵🇰🇹🇷🤩😍.
In my opinion, there is another factor to take into account besides the country's financial distress: Saudi Arabia has completely changed its posture in the region. Previously aligned with the Americans in exchange for implicit protection of the dynasty, the Saudi state has recently been cultivating relations with China, and in this context has ceased its hostile behavior towards Iran, the bête noire of the United States. Thanks to renewed ties with Iran, Saudi Arabia and its satellites now control navigation in the Persian Gulf, a strategic asset. This reversal of Saudi alliances is accompanied by the Russification of Syria, to the detriment of the Kurds, whom Erdogan perceives as a threat to Turkey (or to his power?). As Turkey's rivals in the Middle East move further away from the Americans, it's only logical that Turkey should move closer to them.
Generally, Russians in Syria are best news for Kurds and other smaller ethno-religious communities in Syria, considering the alternative. However, Kurds in Syria are only smallest part of total Kurdish nation, and cannot alone be Kurdish state. But West already rejected declaration of independence of Iraqi Kurds and does not have any indication of support for Kurdish independence frim Turkey. And oil fields in Syria are in Sunni Arab area, so Kurds are used by USA as occupying force in order to prevent legitimate Syrian government from reclaiming them
@@mladenmatosevic4591 I'm not sure. Kurds are in the majority in the north of the country, particularly in the oil-producing regions. These areas are in a Kurdish Autonomous Region that dates back to before the civil war. An agreement was reached in 2019 under the Trump administration between the American oil company Delta Crescent Energy and the autonomous Kurdish administration to exploit these oil fields. Several incidents have pitted Russian and American forces against each other, with the latter preventing the former from gaining access to oil and gas sites in the provinces of Hassaké and Deir ez-Zor. In September 2020, after a heated confrontation, the Pentagon announced a reinforcement of its posture in the region, with the dispatch of several additional M2A2 Bradley armored vehicles and a Sentinel radar used for air defense. Now that Mr. Trump has left the White House, his successor, Joe Biden, clearly has other intentions. Asked on February 9, 2021 whether the new administration was also determined to "protect" oil fields in the Kurdish sector, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby clearly said no. Except "where appropriate under certain circumstances to protect civilians", he said. "Department of Defense personnel and contractors are not authorized to provide assistance to a private company [...] seeking to exploit oil resources in Syria," Kirby went on to clarify. "It's important to remember that our mission there is to enable the enduring defeat of the Islamic State," the Pentagon spokesman continued. He insisted: "That's why they [U.S. military personnel] are there." The presence of U.S. troops in Syria is frequently questioned by Republican lawmakers.
@@charlesjenner1951 You understand that "Autonomous regions" have no right to sign such contracts and in fact that oil fields were used for decades before civil war. So it is clear case of imperialistic resource plundering. And by which ethnic map Kurds made majority so south in any case?
@@mladenmatosevic4591 There is an autonomous region in northern Syria known as Rojava or the Democratic Federation of Northern Syria, also known as the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES). It is a de facto autonomous region that has been controlled by Kurdish militias since 2012. The population of the region is estimated to be around 6 million people as of 2017. It consists of several self-governing sub-regions in the areas of Afrin, Jazira, Euphrates, Raqqa, Tabqa, Manbij, and Deir Ez-Zor. Rojava is unique in that it is based on a libertarian socialist ideology of democratic confederalism promoting decentralization, gender equality, environmental sustainability, social ecology, and pluralistic tolerance for religious, cultural, and political diversity... But remember that the Syrian Kurdish population that can be estimated at 3 to 3.5 million, or nearly 15% of the population of Syria has faced discrimination and repression historically, by the dominant Arab etnnicity.
Turkey have been baited with EU membership for decades now . Both sides have repeatedly broken promises and agreements. Turkey are a convenient NATO member who have to watch the EU cliques pulling the strings from outwith. However, turkey politicking with the west and east depending on the wind has aggravated western xenophobia to varying levels. However he actually has more cards to play than either hemisphere wants to admit.
there needs to be some sort of guarantee within the agreement to transfer new F-16s to Turkey that ensures they won’t be used against Cyprus and Greece. In fact the US should focus on arming Cyprus instead as they are a much more reliable ally than Turkey and deserve a decent defensive capability.
Well spoken Mr Cream!! If only they followed through this 50 years ago..!! Now they see who their true & stable allies are in the area! Cyprus should ask to push TR out of Cyprus; Cyprus prob solved in an instant & now&s the time to do it! Can u imagine a free Cyprus becoming a Nato member & allowing (another…shh-current one is also a secret..) US base on its soil, in exchange of guaranteing Cyp’s security & freedom?
@@ephilippos The reason why Turkey was accepted into NATO is its Geography. They bordered the Soviet Union and were able to project soft- and if necessary hard power on its oil-rich southern neighbours. Even though the cold war has ended and the Soviet Union is no more, we have seen that the geographical enemy of NATO is still the same. Along with an ever expansioning China that gains more and more influence in both Africa and the middle east, Anatolia and the Bosporus straits stays one of the absolute key locations in the world. Not to mention that Turkey is stronger then Cyprus. With over 80 Million people, Turkey is able to bunker up its mountains and even a 2 billion China wont be able to enter in without horrific loses. Turkey has the second largest army in NATO and a high quality weapon research sector. Turkey in most military fields is not dependant on an USA babysitting them with everything they need in order to keep up a fight. Even Cyprus and Greece combined come not even close to the importance Turkey holds, both geographically and militarily. I agree that Turkey is kind of the wildcard at the moment, but Turkey is never going to change out NATO and EU allies for unreliable and unprofitable powers in the east. Erdogan is justing flexing to get the best deals for Turkey and wants to increase its independance. You may dislike that, but that itself is no reason to believe that Turkey would not honor a call to arms in case NATO is attacked. So at the end, it does not matter how reliable Cyprus is or not. No offense to Greeks or Cypriots, but a tiny island like Cyprus will never contribute anything useful to the alliance, aside from providing bases. Something Turkey already does in its own territory so the need for bases of Cyprus is out of the picture already. Honestly, the other way around would be just as attractive for the USA. Just unite the island under Turkey and get bases that way. And just for the record: 50 years ago it was Turkey who proposed an independant Cyprus with rights for everybody and it was Greece that wanted to forcefully take the island for their own. So today you are supporting the idea of an independant Cyprus and reject the idea of Cyprus being taken by another state, while 50 years ago you do the opposite? That shows that you re not arguing based on rationality, but that you are simply bias towars Turks. Which takes any creditability away from you.
@@sinanroyal5359 Actually, the development of the port at Alexandroupolis in Greece renders the Bosporus straits irrelevant and the new connective train route between the port and Odessa will mean that it will take mere hours not 5 days through the straits to get supplies over to Ukraine. The Americans are slowly pulling out of the base in Incirlik,Turkey as the sentiment in the country is becoming very anti-American. I think you’re focusing too much on numbers. If there’s anything to learn from the war in Ukraine is that size doesn’t always matter. Bullets are small but they can kill.
@@elenigeorgiou87 The Bosporus straits is not only important for shipment to the Ukraine, but also a vital part of trade for Russia and the gate that leads from Asia to Europe. The Amercians are not only pulling out of Incirlik, but from the Middle East in general. Since the Trump administration USA started to shift its focus on the far east away from Islamic lands. I agree that the sentimant is becoming anti American, but that iself is no reason for the USA to leave a country. Most countries USA is present in militarily hate the USA. I put in a lot of numbers here, but my point is not to that because of statistics USA will keep in touch with Turkey and vice versa. I am talking about Realpolitik. At the end of the day, a government is always chasing success in order to survive and to gain power. Turkey is a far to important country to lose for the USA and on the other side to strong to take it down as happened with Iraq. The other way around the case is similar. Not only the USA, but the West in general is too important for Turkey to let them down. China, Russia and India can never replace the EU and USA for Turkey, wether it be economically, culturally or militarily. In every sense the West is preferable to Turkey, thats why Turkey even though everything that happened keeps ties with the West in tact. Turkey is a wildcard, but a wildcard does not mean stupid. Wildcard simply means that it refues to act according to given rules set by an institution, an alliance or whatever and instead act as the wildcard sees fit. And thats exactly what Erdogan does. I think you are focused too much on ideology. A similar worldview and a shared culture is an important factor of course, but history has shown that the needs always beat ideology. Even a completly autocratic Turkey would be a fitting partner, as long as they are open to work with the West aswell. No matter if they are a wildcard or not, as the benefits the West reaps out of that alliance are too great to ignore. Which is why even an autocratic Turkey will work together with the West. I hope though this will never become reality. Again, I am not hating on Greece and Cypus. They are allies of the USA aswell and are providing bases and stuff. Even though it is because of their rivalry with the Turks, Greece has one of the largest armies in Europe and their geography makes them as hard to conquer as Anatolia. But Turkey simply comes with advanteges Greece and Cyprus can not. The bigger population, as I have already mentioned. The autonomous military sector. The large army and the positioning. If Erdogans strategic interested are guaranteed to be fulfilled, Turkey is the stationing hub for any operation in the middle east for the NATO. For example, NATO decides to take down Assad. Erdogan will demand the Opposition to be put in charge afterwards and will demand the end for the YPG. If the USA agrees to this, the USA could launch its invasion into Syria from Turkey. Hell, Turkey would do that job themselves if in turn USA interested are guaranteed. Thats how politics works. Even though with the USA retreating, the middle east stays attractive. Its central location and strategic resources will always keep the middle east as one of Earths key regions. And Turkey is able to provide opportunities there that Greece and Cyprus could not. I believe that a complete annexation of Cyprus would be hard to realize for Turkey. NATO would oppose that, the world would need to meet a real low point for that to happen internationally accepted. But if things world wide get worse, and they are getting worse, Turkey could use Northern Cyprus as a bargaining chip. Either give it to Cyprus in exchange for massive concessions somewhere else. EU membership for example. Or getting Northern Cyprus officially recognized in exchange for Turkish loyality and aid. The world in 20 years will look completly different. With China on the rise, the middle east forming a united front against the USA (atleast for now) and Russia on the brink of collapse, power games will become the norm again. And Turkey, who is an aspiring power themselves waiting to enfroce their interests upon the middle east, is an attractive ally to have. Erdogan knows this. If he is loud now it is mostly for internal reasons. Appearing strong is important within turkish politics. Their are very militarily minded people. But shouting is all he does and not acting. He will only act if his main interests are endangered.
OK . What kind of agreement ,would be .? To be equal owners in our yard , in our homes ? They already ,still occupied the half of Cyprus , ignoring of all of the UN resolutions about peace and justice. They ignoring ..JUSTICE ! What kind of agreement ,they want about the Aegean islands ?
Cool down bro. Even himself doesn't believe that EU will accept Turkey to join. He is just fooling his blind and uneducated followers as always he does. Telling you as a turkish citizen
Erdogan is a pragmatist but he has never been a democrat. Turkey’s population was 30 million when Ankara Agreement was signed in 1963 that established a roadmap for Turkey’s accession to EEC for the first time. 60 years later Turkey’s population is 85 million. If Turkey was the most democratic country in the world and the flag bearer of human rights, and pass all chapters of EU accession process with flying colors, it would still be denied by the great majority of European voters in referendums. Erdogan knows this, Turkish people know this, everybody knows this. The theatrics is about keeping up appearances (in Turkish: dostlar alisveriste gorsun.) Turkey, a NATO member with functioning relations with Russia will come in handy when it is finally time to talk peace with Russia. Finland becoming a NATO member extends the border between NATO and Russia considerably and creates extra security needs for both parties. This extra burden will mostly be on the European members of NATO. It is questionable whether this move strengthens NATO or weakens it by increasing the risks out of proportion. Sweden and Finland’s proximity to Kaliningrad and St Peterburg will shift the Russia’s military posture towards the Baltics even more. Turkey would not object to this unless things get out of hand and we all go up in smoke. EU membership talks are a sideshow compared to what is at stake.
As someone who doesn’t see the Wesr as better than the Alternatives I think Turkey is taking the right steps. I think it would be foolish to invest fully in the western camp when they are no longer dominant. It would mean missing out on opportunities to build relationships with other countries who will be stronger in 50-100 years time. Turkey has to consider itself first and ultimately its actions might lead to a more balanced world. It’s not a good thing the Russia and the US are fighting a proxy war in Ukraine and personally I don’t see one side as better than the other.
Turkey is aging as well. The proportion of Turks will fall as their share of the population meanwhile the booming Kurdish minority is growing at a rapid pace. Turkey also had to deal with the growing population of Syrians(Arabs), this will Balkanize Turkey by 2050
Erdo just wants the Customs Union & free Visa to EU for TR citizens….he wants the benefits, without the EU obligations; He wants the baby without the pains of pregnancy…😅
@@ephilippos yes they know better, As a Turk we were food Soldiers and peasant!! In otoman empire, Ermanian and greeks Banker and industry , despite that we did living together 500 years We don't mind living again under the Turkish government!!
He may have a different personal agenda in term of NATO security alliance, a stronger and bigger defenses capability may not be the only goal for him, if it doesn't suit his domestic political goal.
Turkiye can never have a democratic system like western countries just because of it's location Turkiye has to fight for it's existence with every means.
@@JamesKerLindsay It would be more interesting if you shared the knowledge in regards to which countries were behind the 2016 coup in Turkiye, instead of calling Erdogan outright "Authoritarian" for following the law and punishing people who killed over 300 civilians. The points that you missed you really put question on your credibility by telling only the side of story you want to tell.
here is what I understand from the events of the past weeks: after what just happened in russia back in the days, i mean wagner crisis or fiasco u can call it however u want, i think erdogan started to believe he can't trust russia and they are not strong as he thought. so he wanted to start his turn while there is still ukrania war goes on. plus turkey's economy is not in good state and erdogan needs foreign help. at first, he tried to get middle eastern investments but they did not help much, turkey needs more help so these factors and events pushed him try to be friends with the west again.
It is my first time on your site. Thank you for a comprehensive and fair analysis. I do however differ on your conclusions that the primary reason for rapprochement from Erdogan is the financial situation. Granted it is part of the reasons but I reckon it is deeper and more strategic than that. It seems it is more Turkiye setting the agenda instead of following the dictates of EU and USA. This is inline with the brazen way Erdogan went neutral on the Russia War on Ukraine, the mending of relations with Israel and the Gulf. My reading is reinforced by the keeness of the West to dance to the Turkiye music I.e. greement to sell the F-16s, offers of financial support from EU and embracing of Erdogan despite the active demonisation in the run up of the elections. Unfortunately, despite the brilliance of your analysis, it seems you are blindsighted by the euro centric narrative that EU and the west still pull the strings that others dance to. Is it possible that the West are underestimating Turkiye and Erdogan the same way they did against the rise of China, BRICS and now the Gulf? A Bynzentine cannot be underestimated if history is to be remembered.
Thanks so much. And a warm welcome. You could well be right. But after all these years, I’m not sure many Western leaders underestimate Erdogan. Or trust him. But they do know that given the choice it is better to have him close by than getting too friendly with Putin. They will give him goodies and treats ti help that. But I don’t think they will be fooled. Then again, maybe he has changed. 😀
I think not , what we saw in Vilnius is more to do with American arm twisting than with anything else . Erdogans core voters do not have EU membership as a priority and see Turkiye as the regional power and want to keep it that way . I have no doubt that at some point in the future Turkiye will join the EU but we are looking at least 15/20 years from now . The biggest obstacle Turkiye has in joining is its military who will lose considerable power and influence should Turkiye ever join .
Even countries such as Afghanistan, Yemen, Somalia and North Korea have a higher chance of joining the European Union than Türkiye. Because Türkiye is a big fish. I am saying this as a Turkish.
@@regular89 imkansız. avrupa birliğine Türkiye gibi bir ülke girdiği zaman 4-5 milyon nüfuslu ülkeler ile aynı söz hakkını kabul etmez en fazla 10 sene sonra Almanya'nın koltuğunu ister. Avrupa yaşlanıyor, Türkiye'nin genç nüfusu var; Avrupa'ya girersek yeni bir çin vakası oluruz:)
6:11 Objetion, Mr. Professor. ''US style presidential System'' maybe it's just likeness of 'morphology' or just denomination : 'presidental system'. American system is the real one which itself gives the notion to literature of political science. Turkish one is very negative derivation, indeed frankly saying 'bastard'. Turkish system no check no balance, and no rule of law, the Parliment is now like an organ of consultation. Turkish 'presidental' system is an uniform firmly tailored for Mr. Erdogan by dirty-referandum of April 2017. I* call the new regime tyranny with ballot (tyrannie au scrutin)(*I have no academic title, just ordinary guy at my own).
Thanks. Great points! I’m actually not a fan of the US system. I don’t think it is healthy to mix U.K. the roles of head of state and head of government. It can lead to abuses of power and a sense of having too much control. I like systems where the two roles are separated. One carries the symbolic representation of the state, but not power. And the other has power, but is second to the head of state in terms of precedent and symbolism.
Even before watching your analysis, I've always viewed this issue arising out of American, and European arrogance. It's a all very well when it's American or European interests, but if anyone else serves their interests, then they're being idiots. It's an ignorant, and childish approach. I'll add more after listening to your analysis.
I don’t think Erdogan wants to be tied to the West alone. He wants to be free to explore Turkish influence across Central Asia, the Middle East and Africa. Unfortunately for him, the Turkish economy cannot carry his ambitions at present, and so he needs the west for now. Combined with the need to rebuild numerous cities destroyed by the recent earthquakes, and his election win, along with the weakening of Putin, explains his current 180 degree U-turn in relation to the west.
Thank you. Great points. The scale of recent spending has been enormous. And, as you say, Turkey can’t keep up with it. I attended a briefing recently that detailed how all of this fits together and just how dire the situation is - made worse by Erdogan’s particular economic approach. It was alarming, to put it mildly. But, fortunately, it does seem as though he has now understood the scale of the problem. Apparently, the new finance minister had a long, frank conversation with him. Perhaps Erdogan realised that unless things changed, his legacy would be a collapsed economy. The question is what he will now see as his goal for what many think could well be his final term.
The greatest success of the Turks, their history as administrators,has been little appreciated in the West. For six hundred years the Ottoman Empire ruled successfully over a great land, an imperial record that can stand with that of Romans. The Ottomans created an empire of unique toleration, where many peoples and religions kept their own traditions at a time when religious persecution was the rule elsewhere. It was an empire of laws, held together by rules as much as by the personality of the sultan. It is no accident that the great sultan Süleyman, known to the West as The Magnificent, was known to the Turks as The Lawgiver, asign of his and the Empire's true success. If the achievements of the Turks in politics and law are littleknown in America, those in the humanities are even less so. Yet Turkish music, art, architecture, and poetry were the crowning glories, coming as they do from a different cultural tradition. The beauty of Turkish poetry may only be fully appreciated in Turkish and Turkish classical music may not perfectly match whatis expected by Western ears, but the beauty of Turkish art caneasily be seen. The grace of Turkish calligraphy, the colors of Turkish miniature paintings, and the geometric forms of Turkishporcelain tiles are known to be high art by anyone who has seenthem. The great mosques of Istanbul, especially Sinan's Süleymaniye Mosque, rival any buildings in the world. The accomplishments of modern Turkey have been in a different context. The task of the modern Turks was to create a democratic,independent society. In a time of imperialism, Turkey was oneof the few nations to keep its independence, despite great odds against it. Turkey was almost unique outside of Western Europeand North America in its sustained drive to gain democracy. Firs tnoted under Mustafa Kemal Atatürk for its campaign to educateand develop its people to live in the modern world. Turkey now is an economic success and a multiparty democracy. It is one of the few countries of its region that have significantly raised itself up economically, without oil revenues to depend on. Muchremains to be done, but the success is notable. Today, Turkey is a bridge between the Middle East and the West,as well as a bridge between the West and the newly freed lands of Central Asia. It is a state whose people are overwhelmingly Muslim, yet also a state that is thoroughly secular in its lawsand government. The great tradition of Islam is not forgotten,nor is the tradition of western philosophy, government, and technology.
Can a Muslim state really and truly be a genuine and trustworthy ally of Europe and the West? Erdogan's anti West speeches and conduct over many years should make us very wary of his Islamist based motives. Erdogan constantly celebrates long past Ottoman/Islamic military victories over European forces (while avoiding any mention of numerous and considerably more significant defeats of Turkey at the hands of Western and Russian forces). It seems highly likely that Erdogan loathes the success, wealth and power of Western 'Christian' civilisation, which he views with the envy of a zealous Islamist. The West should not reward him too generously for his recent two faced about-face, not least because the forthcoming economic crisis in Turkey is largely of his own making and could result in his rapid downfall.
Is there any islamist motives? Even the islamist countrys are fighting against each others. I don't think Turkey wants to join EU, they would need to transfer Power to Brüssel and so on .
Actually, when the army of Sultan Suleiman Khan the Magnificent surrounded the capital of the Holy Roman Empire - Vienna, and besieged it, the Emperor pleaded defeated, calling himself the son (read - the vassal) of the Sultan and calling the Sultan as his father. After that, the siege of the city was lifted. And Sweden of those days and even much later was a long-standing ally of the Magnificent Porte.
These are always good, informed and balanced presentations. Can't praise the presentation and information enough. I don't think that Turkey has a "tinker's chance in hell" of joining the EU given the islamic nationalist basis of the current Turkish government. There was a very good, cogent and practical reason that Ataturk wanted the republic of Turkey to be secular. Erodgan has as his major goal the ending of the Ataturk's vision for Turkey. As he does this, he is going to get further and further away from EU membership hopes. That he prefers Russia is obvious as he is a dictator just a Putin is (remember Putin also won huge popular "democratic" vote approval). While it is understandable that in the 1950s that Turkey's membership in NATO was desired and indeed probably critical, this is no longer the case. Turkey needs to be removed from the alliance. It no longer has a place in it.
Thank you so much! I really appreciate it. Yes, I think you’re right about Erdogan’s vision. And Turkey has become a terrible alliance member. But I do wonder if the gravity of the situation is finally dawning on him. Apparently, he had been told in no uncertain terms that the economy is in a mess and dangerously close a full crisis if he doesn’t act. The question is how long will any good behaviour last!?
There is no such a thing "Kurdish terrorism". You mean PKK terrorism I guess, which is formally recognised as a terrorist organisation by USA and EU. If you say Kurdish terrorism, then you blame millions of people who are living in most of the countries in the Middle East. Please be careful about your expressions if you are really informed about international politics!
Thanks. I understand. But it is perfectly normal to use terms like this as shorthand for describing a form of terrorist activity without accusing people. We would routinely refer to Islamic terrorism, Irish terrorism, Sikh terrorism, Palestinian terrorism. I don’t think anyone believes that this blames all Muslims, Irish, Sikhs, or Palestinians. Sometimes a term is just used as a way of quickly and simply identifying something. After 40,000 views, you are the only person who has raised it. I think most people understand the differences. But I do see your point.
@@JamesKerLindsay I thank you for your response. But, for example, the expressions like Islamic terrorism can lead ordinary people to internalise or self-ratified some bias about Muslims. Lots of surveys showed how public opinion can change with the words used by media. However, there are some 'experts' who use or even create the expressions like this to demonize countries, peoples or groupes. It's the same for the PKK terrorism. It should be awkward to hear Arabic terrorism or Afgan terrorism from Americans. Why? Because they aimed specific enemies which they thought as terrorists. They couldn't fight with whole Arabic or Afgan people. In Türkiye case, there're lot of Kurdish ministries and deputies, even the vice president of Erdoğan is a Kurdish. Because of that, it's not wise to use the word terrorism and Kurdish. I know it's hard to understand these kind of specific regional-national problems which are politically weaponized between countries against each other since decades or even centuries.
I find your video too biased sadly. You mostly one sidedly show Erdogan as the problem maker mean while a lot of the situation has been caused by the West. First of all Turkey had a better or at least similar level democracy and corruption level with a lot of the Balkan countries who are in the EU. Turkey not getting accepted to EU is nothing to do with democracy criteria or what so ever. Turkey is a Muslim country with a population bigger population than Germany which would make Turkey the country with the most say inside the EU. There is a big prejudice towards Turkey already from the history and the religious difference on top of that is already enough reason for EU to not accept Turkey. On the topic of Russian Turkish relation I only see NATO to blame. Constant support on Kurdish terrorist organizations, military embargos like the PAC3 systems obviously pushes Turkey to seek alternatives elsewhere. Sweeden supporting terrorist organisations and then Turkey apparently making a "big deal" out of this is just so one sided. Typical Western mentalitiy... Where was NATO when Turkey was fighting against Russia in Libya, Syria, Azerbaijan, Sudan, Somalia and West Africa? A lot of the Western countries were siding with Russia against Turkey. Turkey even got "told off" or got more embargos for fighting Russians and winning as well. Internationally recognized Azerbaijani terriroties has been occupied by Armenia for 30+ years with the help of the West, the moment Turks get their lands back the whole international community unite against Turks. Quite ironic to see Russia and the West always agree to the same policies against Turks. No NATO country backed Turkey when they shot the Russian jet, so Turkey had to fix their relations with Russia. If the WEST give the %10 of the support they give to Ukraine to Turkey there wouldn't be any Russians in the Syria and in the North Africa. Instead they try to orchestrade a coup in Turkey and act like nothing happened when they fail.
Why didn't you mention the fact that unrecognized Kemalist Turkey allied with unrecognized communist Russia for getting financial and ammunition help to fight against Western allies?
Because I can’t possibly hope to fit in every detail of every issue. I always get viewers lining up to ask why I didn’t include this or that but if information. If I tried, each video would be hours long. So I try to condense information down to main points. In this case, the fact remains that Turkey chose to be neutral in WWII.
You were in the headlines in finland recently for blaming ahtisaari for kosovo troubles! I doubt any fans will come here attacking you though, unlike if you even mentiln russia! 😂
Right exactly ,you get the point ! Triggers ,is of what they are. Not long ago , and for almost a year, they was threading Greece, about the Aegean islands. From their priminister till the last teenager. Then and after the earthquakes they becomes softer , till now, they are despair about their F 16s update. US , push them a pit ..! that so ,they can pass through a needle hole. They still occupied the half almost of Cyprus, ignoring of all of the UN resolutions about peace and justice for the island. They are even trying in our days to turn those occupied areas, in to a separate " recognise " state ..
EU membership is a non-starter even if 26 of the 27 EU members back it (which they dont) as Cyprus that is still in a state of war with Turkey will not until the occupation of the country ends (and that isnt likely to happen anytime soon!) . Turkey knows this and isnt too concerned so long as the EU can provide the necessary financial assistance to get them out of the economic hole that Erdogan has dug for his country. Turkey will always be deemed too important by some in the west (namely US, UK and Germany) to be fully abandoned due to its size and strategic position, so the relationship will be 'mended' to keep them out of Russia's arms.
I absolutely love these videos. I wish Americans would take a greater interest in events beyond our shores. Kemal Ataturk would roll over in his grave to see the demise of western oriented and secular Turkey. The treatment of the Gay community with water cannons and severe repression of our community should be enough to deny EU membership and expulsion from NATO. Greg Adams, Graduate of the University of Memphis with a Geography minor. From Springfield, Louisiana, USA. I would like to see you to focus on South Africa. 9 time visitor to my beloved and adopted South Africa.
Every EU member has the right to veto a candidate's membership. France with its delusions of grandeur, dislikes the fact that it's only the second most powerful country of the EU and they are definitely not in favor of becoming the third, they also dislike Turkey. When Germany the biggest EU country with the most seats in Parliament has a population of 83 million, a country of 87 million like Turkey is too much to swallow. No European country would want us get the most seats in the European Parliament. Apart from that, Turkey and the EU have conflicting interests. Turkey was promised that the Cyprus issue would not become an obstacle for its membership. While the Turkish Cypriots voted in favor of the Annan plan, the Greek Cypriots voted against the solution of solving the Cyprus issue. It was only due to Greece's blackmail to block the accession of Central and Eastern European countries, that the Greek part of Cyprus was still awarded with EU membership despite not meeting the Copenhagen criteria. This is a clear example of the EU's double standards.Turkey and TRNC will not agree on anything but a two-state solution, which the Greeks don't accept. Greece and the Greek Cypriots want the Turkish Cypriots to become a minority with only minority rights. Greece and the Greek Cypriots would not vote in favor of Turkey's membership. Aside from maybe a handful of countries, all the other members would veto Turkey's membership no matter how secular our government would be. Our national interests are more important than an EU membership. As a Kemalist Turk, I have never been in favor of Turkey becoming a member of the EU. Handing over sovereignty to the EU goes against our values. As a Kemalist I value our independence. I believe that Turkey and the EU can have good relations, but nothing more than that.
its all about money James. not a friendly turn and he is not sincere. he will play sweet until he get what he wants from the west. and when the west’s offerings run out, he will find another country to beg for. im sure youre watching the gulf countries? :) thank you for your video..
Erdogan himself will never be admitted to EU and USA will never admitted back to F-35 program. However, if West is serious about being friendly with Turkey, they should at least deliver them latest Gen 4 fighters, like late model F-16. Also, access to Western job markets for Turks should be at least on level of India and Ukraine. Otherwise, West is not serious.But expecting that Turkey completely spoils relations with Russia and gets nothing in return is not serious statesmanship.
Erdogan was directly involved in helping Azerbaijan, during the 2020 war; but, that war was actually an escalation of what has become a 21st Century Armenian Genocide, a century after the 20th Century Armenian Genocide. Erdogan is a fascistic autocrat, no better than Mussolini, and potentially as bad as Hitler.
Biden: I should tell you though, F-16 sale has to go through Congress. Erdogan: Ahh, ok. Then #Sweden's NATO bid has to go through parliament. Biden: -_- Erdogan: -_- Sweden: Wait a minute... Does that mean we are in or not? Erdogan: Ask him. Biden: ...
Well, I wouldn't say 'Western Return', maybe more like 'Erdogan sees better opportunities for his political ambitions if he aligns with the west' kind of thing.
Erdogan showed himself to be an opportunistic actor and the West knows this. Any relationship between the West and Turkey will be purely transactional and done at arms length going forward.
Erdogan fully understands the nature of Turkeys relationship with the WEST which is transactions in essence. The west on the other hand is not comfortable with an assertive Turkey
@Legiion513. This is 100 percent true. The idea of Turkey being a staunch ally of the west is not really possible, that ship sailed a while ago. This relationship reminds me of domestic violence. You can only beat your partner an X amount of times before she decides look for other avenues. That is essentially what Turkey is in it's relationship with the west. The batter partnered who isn't going to forget so easily.
@@williamdavis9562 While I agree with your take on Turkey, I feel like this is a very Western interpretation of things. From Turkey's perspective, there's likely a lot to dislike about the West's actions recently. There's obviously the US support for Kurds causing issues with Turkish internal security. There's also the wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria, which destabilized their backyard. Basically, from each side's perspective, the other looks like the abuser. And I'm saying this as an American.
@@wlee9888 Same here, I'm an American who spent considerable amounts of time in that country. The way things are framed are sometimes so detached from reality it makes my head spin. Not just Turkey though, that is simply the nature of our globalist media. You use them as a source for most issues around the globe you'll be fed some rather strange narratives, highlighting some facts but leaving out some very big ones. Watching the media coverage on the Ukraine war reminds me of this. So a lot of these analysis videos on youtube are done in good faith, the issue arises due to the narratives they're fed by the vast majority of sources controlled by the globalist cabal. You rarely walk away from it thinking you learned something new, it's essentially half truths. As many of said, we live in a post truth era. Narratives matter more than reality. Many people I talk to about Turkey here in the west simply don't understand how deep Turkey's anger really goes. I'll hear things like "oh we if we XYZ we'll bring them back in the fold." And I'm like "nope, they'll never really join the fold ever again."
@@wlee9888 oh please do you know anything about Turkish history? One of the worst human rights records on earth, for the past 100 years, and that excludes everything they did before people started keeping record of these things. The idea a country like Turkey would talk about terrorists and complain about them is beyond me. They can’t even get themselves to admit the Armenian genocide, they can’t even admit to themselves that they have no free media, they can’t even admit to themselves that they have a dictator, they can’t even admit to themselves that their president &#@ them over and left thousands of them dying under an earthquake because he’s too much of a crook, and he endorses theft. And they still managed to vote him right back in. Turkey is the elephant in the room that everyone is politely dancing around.
I think Putin was expecting way more support from Turkey. Of course, Turkey has not become the strongest supporter of “the West/Nato/UE/Ukraine” but I think it’s fair to say he has lost this bet as well…
Thanks. I think you are right. This isn't paying off so well for Putin. But this simply could be because of the dire state of the Turkish economy rather than principle. In that regard, Orban is looking like a better bet.
@JamesKerLindsay Hullo Mr.James . ! Sir , I understant that I interfere a lot ,in those sides , repeating myself , but, Sir , you have to realize that as a Cypriot , seen my country suffering is just too much ..for me , !
turkey sent the tb2 s before russian invasion (germany sent 5000 helmets btw 😂) which helped ukraine to hold the line until the western help arrives. for 2 weeks, there were just bayraktars and blood of brave ukrainen soldiers. all i m saying is turkey was, is and will be the one of top supporters of ukraine. turkey relies so much on russian money, and never go against russia until the west help them solve the economic issues. do not expect turkey to turn on russia while west treating turkey like sh.t. ( do not forget 10 mil refugees turkey hold, to keep europe happy)
Russia is not the west. They don’t play- I expect you or I order you card when it is not about their security. I am not sure you understand Putin well. He never travelled to Africa blackmailing leaders on money to pay for aid or gas to conform to their way of thinking. He did not travel to teach leaders about what a woman is or what who they should do business with. Unlike the west, blackmailing on food and aid to conform to their way of thinking. Putin had no expectations. Russian way of thinking is - what I think no one in the west understand- at the end we only have ourselves, it’s about counting on ourselves in life. That’s all.
I don’t think Turkey will ever join the EU. The cultural differences are too significant. Besides that, when a large country like Turkey join the EU it will reduce power of countries like Germany and France. Plus the EU will directly border a volatile region like the Middle East. Plus there will be a new immigration crisis with many people wanting to move to Western Europe.
Europeans are less tolerant now of Muslims than they were back in the 2000s (and frankly, vice versa). The idea that this would ever happen is crazy, I agree with you.
@@dunnowy123r maybe because Turkey Is an expansionist power which occupies EU territory? Well get Albania as It Is sooner or later but this kind of Turkey? Hell no
@@dunnowy123 exept it was the reason talks to join the EU stopped lol? Cyprus has the Power to keep Turkey away from the EU until the sun dies. Heck even the Turkish "mission" in Syria Is enought to stop the acession not to count the unrecognized crimes against humanity during ww1
Thanks Prof. That was interesting. From a layman's point of view, it just looks like Turkey was going all in on Russia, but now with Russia's future a big question mark, he's looking for a new option. He really has no other option, what can Belarus provide him? Will be interesting to see if he's willing to make the necessary changes to pursue the western option.
The man is two faced. Both sides know that. Only a matter of time before Erdogan runs out of luck in his poker game he is playing between two sides. Turkey economy is in deep do do! and he just about won the elections shows the mess he is heading in. Patience with him from all sides is fraying. the east do not trust him or his word and neither does the West.
Don't get your hopes up. Both parties walked back on their promises after the initial photo op, with parliament timelines and formalities given as excuses in unison. They are still bargaining, both privately and publicly.
The thing is Erdogan gave his word publicly that Sweden will join NATO soon. Erdogan is a man of his words, so if parliament goes against him that makes him look weak.
@@bruceli9094 That goes both ways. Erdogan and Turkiye were promised things as well. Both parties can play that game. If you think everything is set in stone, you are mistaken. They are still bargianing, publicly.
@@emreus1 The thing is, it doesn't go both ways. The other party has fulfilled what was agreed upon (as also stated by the NATO secretary general). They have also early on stated openly some things they cannot agree to (which was not in the deal) because of fundamental laws. So yeah, no. It doesn't go both ways. I hope Erdogan publically keeps breaking deals and ask for more handouts/bribes.
Sanctions on Russia benefited Russia the most while only hurting Europe and West. Thanks to all the commodity prices. Europe still has to buy the oil and gas somehow and now it buys them via Saudis or Indians buying them from Russians first + the premium into Europe and West. Sanctions have backfired i think. High tech sanctions only would've worked better.
@JamesKerLindsay: Could you do a video analyzing the pros and cons, from a European perspective, of Türkiye's accession to the EU? I am puzzled as to what Türkiye brings to the table that can't already achieved through participation in other organizations or treaties; it seems to me it is more trouble than it is worth. Why would Europeans want to extend their borders, and Schengen right up to Iraq or Syria's door?
Nobody was fleeing Iraq or Syria before USA "visit". And Libya is next door (and boat ride) to Italy and Greece. But problem is that in EU nationalism is on the rise, and any expansion, especially with large Muslim country faces strong popular resistance. Explore how goes with ascension processes of various West Balkan countries and it will give some examples...
@@mladenmatosevic4591 I concur but it's besides the point. The US did what it did, now the rest of the world pays for their hubris. But before these invasions this always was a problematic neighborhood, do you honestly think people would not have been fleeing Iraq if it bordered a European Türkiye? In any case med to long term the issue of human migration will only get worse with climate change, which is why I wonder why anyone would want to grant Türkiye membership. It seems that would further empower right wing nationalists
@@electrosyzygy 50 or even just 25 years ago nobody saw neighborhood as key problem why Turkey cannot be member of EU, otherwise accession talks would not have been started. And "climate change" is straw man argument in this discussion. Main reason for opposition to enlargement is "diluting key values". As is now obvious, in many countries which carried feudalism to 19th sentury, many people believe that cheating system (meaning state) is acceptable and that behaviour is not limited to top level business owners. Carrying gifts to doctors and public officials was common in Ottoman Empire too, and Balkans was long time part of it. As it goes, it starts as small and innocent but ends up on large values. And if you wanted to ask, in Russian Empire was same behaviour, long before Bolsheviks...
@@mladenmatosevic4591 I'm not sure what you mean about the culture of nepotism and corruption in the Ottoman and Russian empires. Also unsure about the relevance of what we're talking about. And I strongly disagree with your statement about the Middle East not being seen as problematic 50 years ago. 50 years ago the region was rife with conflict, there had been a few wars with more on the way, and Baathism was morphing I to authoritarianism. I do understand that nationalists use 'values' as an argument when dealing with Muslim nations. That's not what I'm concerned with. Simply, rationally, what does Türkiye bring to the table that Europe can't otherwise get? My contention is that Türkiye as it is now, let alone what things will be like in a few years, is probably not worth the trouble for many reasons but I'm curious what Prof JKL thinks. Expanding Europe and Schengen to the Middle East would accelerate migration and facilitate human trafficking, further straining European finances, and you can be sure this will enhance right-wing and fascicizing political parties.
@@electrosyzygy EU functions as lose confederation so close supervision from centre does not exist and in culture of corruption muney from funds are sucked by corruption network regardless of project quality, so money is spend inefficiently. As for expansion 50 years ago people leading EU envisioned endless expansion. It would take too long to discuss why. Realistically, EU must absorb West Balkans and maybe Moldova. Everything else means huge border and other complications with less gain then even Turkey.
People like to put Erdogan in a label, either pro-Western due to Turkish membership of NATO, and aspiration for EU membership (unlikely to happen in my opinion), or pro-Russia, due to his reservations over Swedish/Finnish NATO membership, and close links to Putin. I say he is a pragmatist, trying to be with both sides and none at the same time. He is trying to straddle a very fine line between a polarised relationship of Russia and the West
Thanks as always Dr. Ker Lindsay for providing a measured basis for discussion There are so many angles to the geopolitics of Turkey in the last decade, it’s quite fascinating. I like that you point out the financial situation as well. I definitely agree this is one of the key diplomatic issues both short and long term, just because of how many other issues it affects, and seems to be constantly evolving Thanks again for the video professor!
Thank LocalLt. Turkey seems to keep us all busy. It’s such a fascinating country, in so many ways. It will be interesting to see the direction this latest turn eventually takes! I hope all is well at your end.
We've already forgotten that the main stumbling block to Turkey's admission to the EU were human rights issues. "Crack down" = repression. I was talking to a Turkish person in Lesbos last week. He made a very differentiated and intellectual impression on me. In his opinion, Erdogan is bad but not as bad as he's painted in the western press - He's a pragmatist, an opportunist - he has repeatedly done 180 degree turns in the past on controversial issues, when it became clear to him that the opposite view to his rhetoric had become more popular. The Turkish economy is on the brink of "Titanic mode" and it has mostly to do with Erdogan's ignorance and rejection of established remedies to cyclic economic crises. Now he's trying to butter up Europe to foot the bill for his stupid arrogance. If I was a fund manager, I would continue to red tag Erdogan's Turkey as an unstable investment, and the instability rests firmly on Erdogan's doorstep. It could be for example, that he perceives the wind to have changed to his disadvantage in the near future and throw Turkey's potential new rescuers back into open water. In other words: Erdogan’s record shows he can't be trusted and that causes investors to back off.
I have to say I chuckled when NATO and EU leaders, and the media were baffled by Erdogan''s blackmail last week, followed by a quick 180 degree turn. Because in domestic politics, that's what Erdogan have been doing his entire career. I fully agree with Erdogan being a pragmatist and an opportunist.
Erdoğan is a loose cannon. He acts as he pleases and doesn't take advice from the Turkish Central Bank, Economists or other outside country. At the moment, he knows he's in deep trouble and needs outside support and Russia doesn't represent enough in that regard.
I despise this western insecurity y'all display at every corner. Western media shits on their own every day, you choose to not see it. As for Erdogan, when trolls were happy that he won, because that "would make the west mad", I was confused, I am 100% sure that he made a bargain with Europa and they helped him win actually. The west knows that nobody does a bargain like the Turks! He is to be admired in this regard. And yes, Turkey needs to clean a bit their act and I would be happy to see them in the EU!
I think Erdogan is much more trustable as a human being than Putin ever was. The hard fact is his principles probably run counter to modern european ones. However, I think if different human beings can at least be authentic and honest to themselves it becomes less of a challenge ironing out differences in principles. But the major concern isTurkey is not just Erdogan. Its population is not just of the former southern european stock of Roman Empire but have over last 1000 of years included the Siberian Turkic , Central Asian mongolian and Middle Eastern Arabic people. In any democracy the demography of population matters which Is also why I am against uncontrolled migration into Europe. The world is not a safe place for people who wishes to keep the battle for democracy and basic human rights up and running, most parts of the world and the population goes by might is right philosophy and I am no one to challenge that even if I wish to do, since the ideas of democracy and respect for human rights being entrenched within the state apparatus in practice are just 100 odd years old while the might is right one ran right from modern human inception. In an increasingly equatable world it will become increasingly challenging to keep the democratic mindset intact.
As A liberal Turk,Erdoğan is a highly unpredictable person. Words don't matter for Erdogan, results matter. In recent years, we have had much better relations with Russia compared to previous periods. There are several reasons for this, such as the issues of Syria and Karabakh, as well as the tourists coming from Russia. Considering the high inflation rate, Erdoğan does not want to directly confront Putin at the moment. However, Erdoğan is well aware that Turkey will never be an ally of Russia. When you live in a country like Turkey, you will always need friends, so Turkey will never leave NATO and become allies with Russia. As for the European Union, Turkey will never be a member of the EU. In fact, the blame lies with Turkey in this regard because no European country would want to include a country that lacks democracy and has a high level of corruption in its union. If I were European, I wouldn't want Turkey in the EU, Erdogan knows better than Europeans that Turkey cannot become an EU member. but Erdoğan has a few reasons for doing so: 1) Sending a message to Western countries "we want you." 2) Deceiving his own people."
Every EU member has the right to veto a candidate's membership. France with its delusions of grandeur, dislikes the fact that it's only the second most powerful country of the EU and they are definitely not in favor of becoming the third, they also dislike Turkey. When Germany the biggest EU country with the most seats in Parliament has a population of 83 million, a country of 87 million like Turkey is too much to swallow. No European country would want us get the most seats in the European Parliament. Apart from that, Turkey and the EU have conflicting interests. Turkey was promised that the Cyprus issue would not become an obstacle for its membership. While the Turkish Cypriots voted in favor of the Annan plan, the Greek Cypriots voted against the solution of solving the Cyprus issue. It was only due to Greece's blackmail to block the accession of Central and Eastern European countries, that the Greek part of Cyprus was still awarded with EU membership despite not meeting the Copenhagen criteria. This is a clear example of the EU's double standards.Turkey and TRNC will not agree on anything but a two-state solution, which the Greeks don't accept. Greece and the Greek Cypriots want the Turkish Cypriots to become a minority with only minority rights. Greece and the Greek Cypriots would not vote in favor of Turkey's membership. Aside from maybe a handful of countries, all the other members would veto Turkey's membership no matter how secular our government would be. Our national interests are more important than an EU membership. As a Kemalist Turk, I have never been in favor of Turkey becoming a member of the EU. Handing over sovereignty to the EU goes against our values. As a Kemalist I value our independence. I believe that Turkey and the EU can have good relations, but nothing more than that.
I don’t think that Türkiye will join the EU as some already said, as the country is too big and borders countries like Syria and Iraq. I believe Türkiye will go his own way like it was doing the last couple of years always in mind Türkiye first and as within the next 5-10 years Türkiye will be a super power in military I’m curious about the future…
For those who think Turkey will align with Russia or the West, the biggest problem is they haven't understood the Turks as clear as expected. The Turks are overproud of themselves and only care about themselves, they do not believe on any total alliance, even if this comes to their own kins (unless coming from the same Oghuz tribes). The nature of the Turks are always about competing for power and influence. They do not have the idea of human rights or social rights. It's about themselves and only, which makes them perfectly suited to Churchill's quote, "no lasting friends, no lasting enemies, only lasting interests". For once, Turkey allied with Russia for interests, but when it became clear that Turkey found that Azerbaijan could be threatened from a joint Iranian-Russian alliance since 2022, they switched side. This was what they matter the most - their own Oghuz kins, which is their biggest interests. They don't care about Kipchak Kazakhs, they don't care about Afghans, they don't care about Pakistanis. They care about only themselves.
@@mv_5878 Even if Kemalists were to gain power again, the old romantic days were long gone. A new reality is being set, and it is not a distortion. It's entirely real. The only thing I feel still staying the same is the ongoing demise of Russia as a superpower.
@@mv_5878 You do realize, that Kemalists would be far more extreme in putting Turkeys interests first, unlike Erdogan who acts as Europes refugee camp, fucked over the economy and education, right?
I have seen some of your previous answers in a variety of videos. You appear to be very well-versed, with Reddington-like takes. Do you like the Blacklist and what do you think about the future of Turkey, if they are that overproud of themselves?
@@huwenkai440 Turkey definitely thinks itself as a regional great power. They hassle far beyond their own borders. I guess when they realised they will never be accepted in the EU (the coup attempt was the last nail in the coffin) they went full neo-Ottoman. I guess you have a point - what else would explain Erdogan's popularity, after he has wrecked the Turkish economy completely, if not collective dreams of grandeur?
Regards from London, European Union, if the English out, Turks not interested come in!! Turks more interested in Turkic union,rather than European union, Ageing and trillions $ in debt Europe!! What future!! Turks are not silly!
Let’s revisit this if/when a huge financial crisis hits Turkey. Who do you think will really be better placed to help then? That’s the whole point. It’s all very well talking up these new alliances. But when trouble hits, its straight back to the US and EU.
@@JamesKerLindsay reserve Currency $£€ print moneys Buy what you want, and not earned!! What a life!! If you think system last long, you will Be disappointed!! And than No one comes to you!!
It was interesting to me about how Turkey and Greece actually spoke to each other during the summit. They've done the song and dance before, but still. It was very high profile a thing to happen after some recent developments, like the infamous Blue Homeland map the Turkish leader seems to support.
Dear professor, why do you undermine the negative impact of the Gulenist movement and other religious cults? The people who are detained and fired from govermental jobs were simply put there to do their "Hodja"s bidding. Also, Fetullah Gülen lives in Pennsylvania, US. The involvement of these people in the Turkish politics were massive in the 2010s. Also, Gulen movement were largely financed by CIA. It seems you are involuntarily undermining the role of these cults. They were like secret organizations within the government. Erdogan is no saint either, but after the attempted coup in 2016, most of the people who ordered police to attack the protestors, or the government attorneys who jailed the generals of TAF were these cultists.
Wow. According to that poll, there is less support for Turkish EU membership than Kazakhstan, Morocco, and Russia! That is very telling. Anyway, I agree that Turkey is nowhere near ready for EU membership. But I think many people in Turkey separate the EU from the US when it comes to dealing with the West. Polls have shown persistent anti-American feelings in Turkey lately, probably due to US operations in Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan. There isn't much love for Russia or China, either. But the EU is seen as a viable partner on strategic and economic issues, much more so than those other three countries. I think Erdogan will continue to oscillate on foreign policy. But it will be interesting to see if the young people in Turkey eventually start to support the kind of reforms that would make the country more suitable for EU membership.
Die Türkei sieht die USA hinter dem Putschversuch im Juli 2016, deswegen sind die USA nicht sehr beliebt. Das sehe übrigens auch so. Das war letzte Versuch der USA mit einem Militärputsch die Türkei wieder in Griff zu bekommen. Zu dieser Tatsache kommen die von Ihnen aufgeführten Punkte. Die Türkei wird sicher keine Rechte an die EU abgeben wollen, deswegen wird die Türkei nie Mitglied in der EU werden. Die Türkei wird sich in der EU Deutschland und Frankreich nicht unterordnen wollen, das ist ein weiterer Punkt, de gegen die Mitgliedschaft der Türkei in der Nato spricht
Every EU member has the right to veto a candidate's membership. France with its delusions of grandeur, dislikes the fact that it's only the second most powerful country of the EU and they are definitely not in favor of becoming the third, they also dislike Turkey. When Germany the biggest EU country with the most seats in Parliament has a population of 83 million, a country of 87 million like Turkey is too much to swallow. No European country would want us get the most seats in the European Parliament. Apart from that, Turkey and the EU have conflicting interests. Turkey was promised that the Cyprus issue would not become an obstacle for its membership. While the Turkish Cypriots voted in favor of the Annan plan, the Greek Cypriots voted against the solution of solving the Cyprus issue. It was only due to Greece's blackmail to block the accession of Central and Eastern European countries, that the Greek part of Cyprus was still awarded with EU membership despite not meeting the Copenhagen criteria. Turkey and TRNC will not agree on anything but a two-state solution, which the Greeks don't accept. Greece and the Greek Cypriots want the Turkish Cypriots to become a minority with only minority rights. Greece and the Greek Cypriots would not vote in favor of Turkey's membership. Aside from maybe a handful of countries, all the other members would veto Turkey's membership no matter how secular our government would be. Our national interests are more important than an EU membership. As a Kemalist Turk, I have never been in favor of Turkey coming a member of the EU. Handing over sovereignty to the EU goes against what values and ideals. As a Kemalist I value our independence. I believe that Turkey and the EU can have good relations, but nothing more than that.
@@abadairshiFrance is the most powerful country in the EU now that the UK is out. Germany has got a bigger economy but it's a lot like Japan. It's not a powerful nation anymore it's a rich nation on a leash.
Well, this has been the big story of the past week. At long last, Erdogan agreed to pass Sweden's NATO membership to the Turkish Parliament for ratification. (Although it might not happen until October.) But it almost collapsed when the Turkish President suddenly tried to link it to restarting Turkey's EU accession talks. But, while this was never going to happen, is this really the start of a Turkish shift back to its Western partners, as some have suggested? Let me know your thoughts in the comments below.
Turkey NEVER will join EU ,and you as me you do know this well...
@@dand7763Because it will open up the floodgates with all the people wanting to immigrate to western europe.
I would like to translate your videos in Romanian and then send the subtitle file to you so that you cand add it to your videos. How can I send you the file?
Ich denke Erdogan hat den Druck auf die Türkei reduziert. Er steht nicht mehr als Bösewicht innerhalb der NATO dar. Vor allem seine
Aufforderung die Ukraine in die NATO aufzunehmen, ist ein cleverer Schachzug. Damit sind die Amerikaner und andere westliche Länder die Bösen, die die Ukraine diesbezüglich nicht unterstützen. Für die Aufgabe seiner Position gegen Schweden hat er im Gegenzug hat er einige Dinge versprochen bekommen. Er hat dennoch nichts zugesagt, außer dem türkische Parlament den Beschluß vorzulegen. Das wird frühestens in etwa 10 Wochen passieren. Er wird genau das Verhalten der Schweden und der USA beobachten und danach handeln. Die USA verweisen bei den Kapfflugzeugen auf den Kongress das macht Erdogan jetzt auch in dem er für die Mitgliedschaft von Schweden in der NATO auf das türkische Parlament verweist. Dass das türkische Parlament dem zustimmt ist nach meiner Ansicht keinesfalls sicher. Ich würde im Augenblick nicht darauf wetten, daß das türkische Parlament dem ohne weiteres zustimmt.
Erdogan hat dort im Parlament schwierige Partner in seinem Parteienbündnis (MHP). Die Türkei traut den Amerikanern nicht und wird auch den Prozeß für den Kauf der F16 Kampfflugzeuge genau verfolgen. Für mich ist der Beitritt von Schweden zur NATO keinesfalls eine beschlossene Sache, zumindest noch nicht.
DieTürkei wird niemals Mitglied der EU, das weiß Erdogan sehr genau aber mit seinem Vorschlag setzt er die EU unter Druck und will die Zollunion ausweiten und Visafreiheit für türkische Bürger. Bevor das alles passiert, wird Schweden der NATO nicht beitreten können. Die Türkei hat auf jeden Fall Zeit gewonnen und kann den Prozeß weiterhin verzögern. Wenn er ohne diese Zusagen von der EU und der USA diesen Beschluß durch das türkische Parlament bringen will, wird er scheitern.
How would the EU feel if the proposed Turkic block is ever actually brought about?
Turkey are clearly looking for trade partners and relationships. They also have oil n gas development plans , global munitions trade and control of critical shipping routes.
Time to stop stalling and bring them in to the fold before other options become more appealing economically.
I dont think Türkiye is actually aiming a fully membership of EU. Custom union update and visa problem is the main goal.
Thanks. I agree. Joining requires too many complex and uncomfortable changes. Erdogan would prefer to keep the talks going, but aim for other things, as you say.
@@JamesKerLindsay i agree
Visa-free access to the EU, even if for just 30 days at a time, in parity with the Balkan countries would be seen as a huge achievement, even by Erdogan haters in Turkey. But I can't see anyone managing it for Turkey in the near future. The Balkans countries are tiny compared to Turkey's population.
I can´t see Visa free travel to be offered for Turkey.
@@Siranoxz unlikely for all but Turkey does have a "special passport" which has much better access including visa free to EU. I could see something similar which would be more expanded and open to more people in society. Those more likely to be "trusted" e.g. with a degree or a high level job. Difficult to manage but since it's kind of already been done something similar might happen again. On EU side they could grant to Turkish citizens with other residency.
Or at the least simplified processes for those people with trusted citizenship/residency - e.g. UK, US. Mexico already does this for UK residency permits and it would still be a vote winner for Erdogan since they get to vote in Turkish elections
This channel is easily number one for me in international politics. The topics never feel clickbaity or sensationalized, the facts and knowledge are so clearly presented with evidence and experience to back them up. I really appreciate this channel, I don't know anywhere else that has given me such good overviews on what is happening overseas. Thanks for the great work!
I'm 100% convinced James knows more about geopolitics than many of today's political leaders.
@@bilic8094 I mean, he IS a professor.
@@falsevacuum4667 well many people say they're profesers that's not what I go by you could tell he knows his stuff I first heard about James in the 90's during the yugoslav wars and I haven't heard a bad word about him sure he leans sides on issues but we all do.
@@bilic8094 Some politicians literally boast about how little they know of geopolitics. Sadly, many voters deliberately support populist politicians who are intentionally ignorant.
@@falsevacuum4667 Not all professors are the same. Many are simply green haired activists.
Notice on the map how all the conflict zones are right around Turkiye. Ukraine in the North, Balkans in the West, Iraq and Armenia/Azerbaijan in the East, Syria in the South.
@@brckbsrnThe issues with Greece and Kurds are 100% of Turkey's own making.
When you have so many conflict zones around you it's not easy that's why I say being the president of Russia must be the hardest job in the world.
@@brckbsrn The maritime borders between Greece and Turkey are well established, yet Turkey disputes them for possible gain
@@mv_5878 maritime zone between greeks and the turks is a joke and we will dispute that until Greece and EU gives in. things may not sort out in our life time so don't hold your breath, after all, we just started our military industrial sector.
@@osmanisildak2448 Nah, the West will eventually overpower the underdeveloped Turks, unless Erdogan bankrupts you first.
This was a great explanation of the situation! Thank you for your unbiased summary.
Thank you so much. I really appreciate it.
Personally I don't think anything has changed.
Russia pissed him off by backing off some of it's commitments in Syria and Erdo played this gambit.
I don't think how they feel about the west in general has changed nor will this be some beginning of a realignment.
They will sway one way but not go too far, then sway the other way and not go too far. That is essentially their policy. Quite frankly it's the only real available position to them to play. So they play it.
Yes. You are correct. They will do something that will piss off the western countries inevitably.
That was perfect and exactly was the subject I was wondering if you were going to bring it up 🙏🏼👍
Thank you so much. Yes, I couldn't resist!
Professor, how will Turkey join the EU while having 1/3 of Cyprus occupied?
by EU recognizing the sovereign northern turkish Cyprus.
I have long advocated a settlement. And it will be needed before Turkey could ever hope to join. But we have a framework for a solution. A bizonal, bicommunal federation. However, this requires agreement by both communities.
@osmanisildak2448
How this could happen?
The north part of Cyprus is occupied by Turkey since 1974
MILITARY OCCUPIED AREAS
@@andrigeogiou8420 You mean the SAFETY AREA of Undepended North Cyprus for sure.
As a result of permanent greek attacks in the past.
Did they excuse already?
@christkoenigweg
A result of permanent attacks ,from the BAD Greeks ..!
well ..
you need to learn more about of what really happened .
Ask and Mr.James ,about ..
The Turkish Cypriots, they actually took the arms against their own state.
Against our common state , the Republic of Cyprus , back from 1963 -67 , following instructions from Turkey.
How ,you think , even Today , the nation of Turkey ,deals with the Kurdish of PKK .
Does it gives them ..chocolates ?
I would not be quite as pessimistic. I do think Erdogan got more out of that than "just" F-16s and some pretty pictures with EU officials. I believe in the short term there might be more talks between both sides, and Erdogan might see the current climate in a way that the West becomes even more reliant on Türkiye than before, in a security sense.
He might see the West as an opportunity to deal with economic woes in the country and to appease them might as well make some concessions that will bring him closer to the EU. After the war, it is very much in the interest of the West to pull him as closely as possible into the Western alliance, so I could see some sort of higher level talks in the medium term.
No western return if youve followed edrogan for years this is how he plays politics edrogan being edrogan ambitions driven by turkish and islam intrest
Haha! I fall into that increasingly rare category of Turkey watcher who remembers the time before Erdogan. I came up through the ANAP/DYP era.
@@JamesKerLindsay I may not always agree with edrogan but he knows how to play politics hes an intresting figure
@@JamesKerLindsay whoa a foreigner knowing those names is a bit of a surprise! such a weird country of politics isn't it? glad to know more people know our stuff 😁
@@JamesKerLindsay The supposedly more moderate years before Erdogan included the brutal 1974 Turkish invasion of Cyprus.
@Pardus777 The height of the Ottoman Empire were years of mass enslavement and massacre, especially targeting Christian families.
Informative video as always keep up the great work
Mindblowing that the Greek Cypriots were accepted into the EU despite 76% of them rejecting the island’s reunification plan.
Meanwhile the Turkish Cypriots, 65% of which voted in favour of the Annan Plan, are still inhumanely isolated to this day.
Turkey was promised that the Cyprus issue would not become an obstacle for its membership. While the Turkish Cypriots voted in favor of the Annan plan, the Greek Cypriots voted against the solution of solving the Cyprus issue. Due to Greece's blackmail to veto the accession of new Member States, the Greek part was still awarded with EU membership.
Yes the EU's strange Cyprus policy has surely left a stain in relations that won't go away for a hundred years.
Strange that the Greek Cypriots chose not to be fvcked over ...
@@williamdavis9562Calling it EU's double standards would be more fitting in my opinion.
You're correct there, but even if the Cyprus issue was solved, Turkey wouldn't join the EU. It's in West Asia and has a lot of influence, as you know, from Islam, and it would be the country with the largest EU population and with borders with Middle Eastern states. Would you want to admit Turkey if you were France or Germany? Sure, the Cyprus issue was hypocrisy, I agree.
Thank you for a very informative and well-rounded video. I'm Greek-Cypriot and most of the news around Turkey often come with a certain tone.
even with that, I struggle to understand how the EU or the West in general see any reliability in Turkey. Erdogan during the election period was making threats for invading Greece, a NATO member, earthquakes come and now they are friends again. He makes this move, and says that the new F16s will not be used against Greece, when they have violated greek airspace numerous times in the past. I understand it's all part of diplomacy but it's beyond me.
can you provide some context to the story that came out as well about Cyprus being presented as 'coordinates' due to Turkey's demands?
There was quite a bit of info you didn't put in here, but besides that great video!
Thanks. It was just a short 10-15 minute video. Entire university courses can be taught on Turkish politics and Turkey-EU relations. I had to cut out large amounts of information. But hopefully I got the main points across.
Would it be the case that Erdoğan exchanged Sweden's admission to NATO for the recognition of the TRNC? It would seem logical from his point of view if in fact they are not interested in joining the EU, and it would be a "solution" for one of Turkeys main geopolitical issue in the area
…Division which is currently the case, maybe yes but not recognition, as the Cyprus stalemate is kept & well maintained by the West cause it serves them so Mr Souvlaki; if A wanted it fixed, now would be the time to force TR to sod off from the occupation of Cyprus, there you go; Cyprus problem solved, as Erdo’s economy is in dire straits…
Well done again prof this fantastic work
Your videos are excellent. I love a faily quick deep dive into these subjects.
I'm sure he got _something_ out of it. I'm sure it was a lot more than some F-16s.
Maybe a refund for those f35s if it wasn't given already.
There was talk about a 14 billion dollar IMF loan.
Of course there are a lot more than those F16s updates.
Their economy is still depending on Dollar ..
Right?
When discussing Turkey-EU relations, it is a significant achievement to not mention the migration issue. Shouldn't we talk about the agreements between the EU and Turkey to accommodate Syrian refugees and the billions of euros that the EU has provided to Turkey?
I did mention it. But here’s the thing: in any video I do there are any number of topics that I have to cover. I can’t cover everything in detail. So I end up with a long list of things that one viewer or another felt I should have covered. In these situations, I ask that people consider whether, in total, I was broadly right with my analysis and conclusions.
@@JamesKerLindsay Oh, immigration? No, it's not just 'one of the issues' in Turkey-EU relations, it's the star of the show! It's significant enough to have those lovely democratic European governments cozy up to an authoritarian leader - who would've thought? Apparently, the EU isn't looking for a democratic partner, no, they're in the market for a loyal guard dog. But of course, you're well aware of this little open secret, aren't you?
it seem that turkey need europe more than europe need turkey
Turkey has the biggest military in Europe when shit will hit the fan , Europe going to be begging for their help
Politics It is a endless discussion, you will never find the right answers. It is not why, how or whatever.
Politics is definitly not mathematics don't search for logic answers you will not find it.
You can understand How hard to live in Turkey. You can understand We have lived a lot of comlicated hard and unbelieveble situation You can not even imagine. So u should respect our decisions. If you really want to understand this hard impacts the only way is experience it. But that is impossible at least for now. EU, NATO, UK all of them is trying to make a pressure on our county. All they want from us to remain stable. Not improve ourselves, not decrease our anything. Whenever we attmep to increase some good topics, whenever we wanted to raise something they tried to stop us. So you dont expect us to love this groups right. But at least yhey could've respect us instead of try to stop us.
Sorry, but this isn’t really the case. Turkey’s partners have put up with any number of actions that stand against the principles and values of its partners. You say that its partners should respect its decisions. OK. But if those decisions stand against its partners then surely it should do the honourable thing and leave? As long as a Turkey wants to remain in those bodies, it has to accept the rules.
@@JamesKerLindsay I understand that. Thank you. I want to add something tho. Everytime we fit in all rules. They add new rule to the desk. Or I am wrong at this point? I know Erdogan looks like he doesn't really want join that union. But even if he wants, European Union comes up with a new condition every time. I respect to you sir. You are well educated person about this topics I know. I don't want to be disrestpectful. But When you born and live in middle east, you become a little bit prof in politicis. I think we both know EU doesn't want Turkey to join there. They use Turks as a trump card to get the Turks to do their own things around the middle east with this rules. Sorry for broken English but I tried my best
@@yusufsemihkurt3240 Thanks. I fully agree that the EU has often behaved very unfairly towards Turkey. But, again, Turkey hasn’t made it easier. The autocratic tendencies of Erdogan have been a gift for anti-Turkish voices in the EU. As for the condition of membership, these are the same for every candidate country. Turkey isn’t singled out. I know it seems that way, but I don’t think it is.
👍👍
Climbdown is bit of a strong word, and certainly not applicable. But, mostly I agree he has changed his stance, but it cannot be viewed separately from everything else.
He pushed his previous position, when he was facing offensive positions from others, but he never left the Western camp.
His change in stance reflects the fact that Turkey believes in the West, and is willing to be Cooperative provided they don't continue to behave like idiots.
A new start? I doubt it. A continuation of the same old policy. Always seem open to alternative relationships, until a better deal comes along. Erdoğan will always follow what he perceives as Turkey and Erdoğan's interests. He has always been mercurial, and that is not going to change.
I would actually tend to agree. But I do wonder if the state of the economy is so bad that this will constrain him - until it improves and he can do what he wants again. But I have heard that it is on the brink of a crisis.
@@JamesKerLindsay A fair point, my only quibble is the idea that it is on the brink of crisis, I'd say it's been in full on crisis for a couple of years.
Right now, the main opportunity for growth, to my limited knowledge admittedly, is tourism. With Russian tourism to the rest of Europe restricted, that has made Turkey massively attractive to Russian tourism. While I expect Erdoğan to continue bargaining with the west, I doubt he can afford to alienate Russia too much. Our Lukashenko?
May Allah SWT bless Turkey and its beautiful people from Pakistan 🙂🇵🇰🇹🇷🤩😍. Mashallah mashallah mashallah marhaba marhaba love respect and support Turkey and its beautiful people from Pakistan 🙂🇵🇰🇹🇷🤩😍.
I enjoy your analysis… Thank you
In my opinion, there is another factor to take into account besides the country's financial distress: Saudi Arabia has completely changed its posture in the region. Previously aligned with the Americans in exchange for implicit protection of the dynasty, the Saudi state has recently been cultivating relations with China, and in this context has ceased its hostile behavior towards Iran, the bête noire of the United States. Thanks to renewed ties with Iran, Saudi Arabia and its satellites now control navigation in the Persian Gulf, a strategic asset. This reversal of Saudi alliances is accompanied by the Russification of Syria, to the detriment of the Kurds, whom Erdogan perceives as a threat to Turkey (or to his power?). As Turkey's rivals in the Middle East move further away from the Americans, it's only logical that Turkey should move closer to them.
Generally, Russians in Syria are best news for Kurds and other smaller ethno-religious communities in Syria, considering the alternative. However, Kurds in Syria are only smallest part of total Kurdish nation, and cannot alone be Kurdish state. But West already rejected declaration of independence of Iraqi Kurds and does not have any indication of support for Kurdish independence frim Turkey. And oil fields in Syria are in Sunni Arab area, so Kurds are used by USA as occupying force in order to prevent legitimate Syrian government from reclaiming them
@@mladenmatosevic4591 I'm not sure. Kurds are in the majority in the north of the country, particularly in the oil-producing regions. These areas are in a Kurdish Autonomous Region that dates back to before the civil war.
An agreement was reached in 2019 under the Trump administration between the American oil company Delta Crescent Energy and the autonomous Kurdish administration to exploit these oil fields. Several incidents have pitted Russian and American forces against each other, with the latter preventing the former from gaining access to oil and gas sites in the provinces of Hassaké and Deir ez-Zor. In September 2020, after a heated confrontation, the Pentagon announced a reinforcement of its posture in the region, with the dispatch of several additional M2A2 Bradley armored vehicles and a Sentinel radar used for air defense.
Now that Mr. Trump has left the White House, his successor, Joe Biden, clearly has other intentions. Asked on February 9, 2021 whether the new administration was also determined to "protect" oil fields in the Kurdish sector, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby clearly said no. Except "where appropriate under certain circumstances to protect civilians", he said.
"Department of Defense personnel and contractors are not authorized to provide assistance to a private company [...] seeking to exploit oil resources in Syria," Kirby went on to clarify.
"It's important to remember that our mission there is to enable the enduring defeat of the Islamic State," the Pentagon spokesman continued. He insisted: "That's why they [U.S. military personnel] are there."
The presence of U.S. troops in Syria is frequently questioned by Republican lawmakers.
@@charlesjenner1951 You understand that "Autonomous regions" have no right to sign such contracts and in fact that oil fields were used for decades before civil war. So it is clear case of imperialistic resource plundering. And by which ethnic map Kurds made majority so south in any case?
@@mladenmatosevic4591 There is an autonomous region in northern Syria known as Rojava or the Democratic Federation of Northern Syria, also known as the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES). It is a de facto autonomous region that has been controlled by Kurdish militias since 2012. The population of the region is estimated to be around 6 million people as of 2017. It consists of several self-governing sub-regions in the areas of Afrin, Jazira, Euphrates, Raqqa, Tabqa, Manbij, and Deir Ez-Zor. Rojava is unique in that it is based on a libertarian socialist ideology of democratic confederalism promoting decentralization, gender equality, environmental sustainability, social ecology, and pluralistic tolerance for religious, cultural, and political diversity...
But remember that the Syrian Kurdish population that can be estimated at 3 to 3.5 million, or nearly 15% of the population of Syria has faced discrimination and repression historically, by the dominant Arab etnnicity.
Turkey have been baited with EU membership for decades now . Both sides have repeatedly broken promises and agreements.
Turkey are a convenient NATO member who have to watch the EU cliques pulling the strings from outwith. However, turkey politicking with the west and east depending on the wind has aggravated western xenophobia to varying levels.
However he actually has more cards to play than either hemisphere wants to admit.
Good video 🎉
Thank you very much indeed!
there needs to be some sort of guarantee within the agreement to transfer new F-16s to Turkey that ensures they won’t be used against Cyprus and Greece. In fact the US should focus on arming Cyprus instead as they are a much more reliable ally than Turkey and deserve a decent defensive capability.
Well spoken Mr Cream!! If only they followed through this 50 years ago..!! Now they see who their true & stable allies are in the area! Cyprus should ask to push TR out of Cyprus; Cyprus prob solved in an instant & now&s the time to do it! Can u imagine a free Cyprus becoming a Nato member & allowing (another…shh-current one is also a secret..) US base on its soil, in exchange of guaranteing Cyp’s security & freedom?
@@ephilippos The reason why Turkey was accepted into NATO is its Geography. They bordered the Soviet Union and were able to project soft- and if necessary hard power on its oil-rich southern neighbours. Even though the cold war has ended and the Soviet Union is no more, we have seen that the geographical enemy of NATO is still the same. Along with an ever expansioning China that gains more and more influence in both Africa and the middle east, Anatolia and the Bosporus straits stays one of the absolute key locations in the world.
Not to mention that Turkey is stronger then Cyprus. With over 80 Million people, Turkey is able to bunker up its mountains and even a 2 billion China wont be able to enter in without horrific loses. Turkey has the second largest army in NATO and a high quality weapon research sector. Turkey in most military fields is not dependant on an USA babysitting them with everything they need in order to keep up a fight. Even Cyprus and Greece combined come not even close to the importance Turkey holds, both geographically and militarily. I agree that Turkey is kind of the wildcard at the moment, but Turkey is never going to change out NATO and EU allies for unreliable and unprofitable powers in the east. Erdogan is justing flexing to get the best deals for Turkey and wants to increase its independance. You may dislike that, but that itself is no reason to believe that Turkey would not honor a call to arms in case NATO is attacked.
So at the end, it does not matter how reliable Cyprus is or not. No offense to Greeks or Cypriots, but a tiny island like Cyprus will never contribute anything useful to the alliance, aside from providing bases. Something Turkey already does in its own territory so the need for bases of Cyprus is out of the picture already. Honestly, the other way around would be just as attractive for the USA. Just unite the island under Turkey and get bases that way.
And just for the record: 50 years ago it was Turkey who proposed an independant Cyprus with rights for everybody and it was Greece that wanted to forcefully take the island for their own. So today you are supporting the idea of an independant Cyprus and reject the idea of Cyprus being taken by another state, while 50 years ago you do the opposite? That shows that you re not arguing based on rationality, but that you are simply bias towars Turks. Which takes any creditability away from you.
@@sinanroyal5359 Actually, the development of the port at Alexandroupolis in Greece renders the Bosporus straits irrelevant and the new connective train route between the port and Odessa will mean that it will take mere hours not 5 days through the straits to get supplies over to Ukraine. The Americans are slowly pulling out of the base in Incirlik,Turkey as the sentiment in the country is becoming very anti-American. I think you’re focusing too much on numbers. If there’s anything to learn from the war in Ukraine is that size doesn’t always matter. Bullets are small but they can kill.
@@elenigeorgiou87 The Bosporus straits is not only important for shipment to the Ukraine, but also a vital part of trade for Russia and the gate that leads from Asia to Europe.
The Amercians are not only pulling out of Incirlik, but from the Middle East in general. Since the Trump administration USA started to shift its focus on the far east away from Islamic lands. I agree that the sentimant is becoming anti American, but that iself is no reason for the USA to leave a country. Most countries USA is present in militarily hate the USA.
I put in a lot of numbers here, but my point is not to that because of statistics USA will keep in touch with Turkey and vice versa. I am talking about Realpolitik. At the end of the day, a government is always chasing success in order to survive and to gain power. Turkey is a far to important country to lose for the USA and on the other side to strong to take it down as happened with Iraq. The other way around the case is similar. Not only the USA, but the West in general is too important for Turkey to let them down. China, Russia and India can never replace the EU and USA for Turkey, wether it be economically, culturally or militarily. In every sense the West is preferable to Turkey, thats why Turkey even though everything that happened keeps ties with the West in tact. Turkey is a wildcard, but a wildcard does not mean stupid. Wildcard simply means that it refues to act according to given rules set by an institution, an alliance or whatever and instead act as the wildcard sees fit. And thats exactly what Erdogan does.
I think you are focused too much on ideology. A similar worldview and a shared culture is an important factor of course, but history has shown that the needs always beat ideology. Even a completly autocratic Turkey would be a fitting partner, as long as they are open to work with the West aswell. No matter if they are a wildcard or not, as the benefits the West reaps out of that alliance are too great to ignore. Which is why even an autocratic Turkey will work together with the West. I hope though this will never become reality.
Again, I am not hating on Greece and Cypus. They are allies of the USA aswell and are providing bases and stuff. Even though it is because of their rivalry with the Turks, Greece has one of the largest armies in Europe and their geography makes them as hard to conquer as Anatolia. But Turkey simply comes with advanteges Greece and Cyprus can not. The bigger population, as I have already mentioned. The autonomous military sector. The large army and the positioning. If Erdogans strategic interested are guaranteed to be fulfilled, Turkey is the stationing hub for any operation in the middle east for the NATO. For example, NATO decides to take down Assad. Erdogan will demand the Opposition to be put in charge afterwards and will demand the end for the YPG. If the USA agrees to this, the USA could launch its invasion into Syria from Turkey. Hell, Turkey would do that job themselves if in turn USA interested are guaranteed. Thats how politics works. Even though with the USA retreating, the middle east stays attractive. Its central location and strategic resources will always keep the middle east as one of Earths key regions. And Turkey is able to provide opportunities there that Greece and Cyprus could not.
I believe that a complete annexation of Cyprus would be hard to realize for Turkey. NATO would oppose that, the world would need to meet a real low point for that to happen internationally accepted. But if things world wide get worse, and they are getting worse, Turkey could use Northern Cyprus as a bargaining chip. Either give it to Cyprus in exchange for massive concessions somewhere else. EU membership for example. Or getting Northern Cyprus officially recognized in exchange for Turkish loyality and aid.
The world in 20 years will look completly different. With China on the rise, the middle east forming a united front against the USA (atleast for now) and Russia on the brink of collapse, power games will become the norm again. And Turkey, who is an aspiring power themselves waiting to enfroce their interests upon the middle east, is an attractive ally to have. Erdogan knows this. If he is loud now it is mostly for internal reasons. Appearing strong is important within turkish politics. Their are very militarily minded people. But shouting is all he does and not acting. He will only act if his main interests are endangered.
Never EU privileges to a non-european country!
Greece and Turkey really need to come to an agreement on the Aegean Islands for a start
What kind of agreement? There are Treaties that determine the sovereignty of these islands!! Or do you imply that these Treaties should change?
@@motocount I'm talking about the territorial waters
@@dreamcast3607 ok!!
As you wrote it, it seems like the sovereignty of the islands is questionable!
OK .
What kind of agreement ,would be .?
To be equal owners in our yard , in our homes ?
They already ,still occupied the half of Cyprus , ignoring of all of the UN resolutions about peace and justice.
They ignoring ..JUSTICE !
What kind of agreement ,they want about the Aegean islands ?
@@mehmetk.501 Really? So, what are you going to do about it?
It will be the end of Europe as we know 😢
Please explain/expound/state facts on your statement
Cool down bro. Even himself doesn't believe that EU will accept Turkey to join. He is just fooling his blind and uneducated followers as always he does. Telling you as a turkish citizen
Russia wasn't as strong as everyone thought, simple
Erdogan is a pragmatist but he has never been a democrat. Turkey’s population was 30 million when Ankara Agreement was signed in 1963 that established a roadmap for Turkey’s accession to EEC for the first time. 60 years later Turkey’s population is 85 million. If Turkey was the most democratic country in the world and the flag bearer of human rights, and pass all chapters of EU accession process with flying colors, it would still be denied by the great majority of European voters in referendums. Erdogan knows this, Turkish people know this, everybody knows this. The theatrics is about keeping up appearances (in Turkish: dostlar alisveriste gorsun.) Turkey, a NATO member with functioning relations with Russia will come in handy when it is finally time to talk peace with Russia. Finland becoming a NATO member extends the border between NATO and Russia considerably and creates extra security needs for both parties. This extra burden will mostly be on the European members of NATO. It is questionable whether this move strengthens NATO or weakens it by increasing the risks out of proportion. Sweden and Finland’s proximity to Kaliningrad and St Peterburg will shift the Russia’s military posture towards the Baltics even more. Turkey would not object to this unless things get out of hand and we all go up in smoke. EU membership talks are a sideshow compared to what is at stake.
As someone who doesn’t see the Wesr as better than the Alternatives I think Turkey is taking the right steps. I think it would be foolish to invest fully in the western camp when they are no longer dominant. It would mean missing out on opportunities to build relationships with other countries who will be stronger in 50-100 years time. Turkey has to consider itself first and ultimately its actions might lead to a more balanced world. It’s not a good thing the Russia and the US are fighting a proxy war in Ukraine and personally I don’t see one side as better than the other.
EU is becoming a retiree club at a very fast pace. Around 25 years later, EU will beg Turkey to join the club. Let's see what Turks will say then.
Turkey is aging as well. The proportion of Turks will fall as their share of the population meanwhile the booming Kurdish minority is growing at a rapid pace. Turkey also had to deal with the growing population of Syrians(Arabs), this will Balkanize Turkey by 2050
Erdo just wants the Customs Union & free Visa to EU for TR citizens….he wants the benefits, without the EU obligations; He wants the baby without the pains of pregnancy…😅
Why not, you can have baby in tube!!
@@kristinazboodram173 ….& not only! Ask the Armenians & Greeks what TR are; they know better….!!
@@ephilippos yes they know better, As a Turk we were food
Soldiers and peasant!! In otoman empire, Ermanian and greeks Banker and industry , despite that we did living together 500 years
We don't mind living again under the Turkish government!!
@@atillahan4100 u can live under Ottomans, we won’t
He may have a different personal agenda in term of NATO security alliance, a stronger and bigger defenses capability may not be the only goal for him, if it doesn't suit his domestic political goal.
Their position on the "Arab Spring" and support for the wave of migrants has had a lasting affect in the region.
Yup, costed us our youth. :🤡
now France is experiencing the arab spring :)
Wow your outro made me laugh out loud 😂😂😂
Turkiye can never have a democratic system like western countries just because of it's location
Turkiye has to fight for it's existence with every means.
A real British prof who follows the news, understands what's happening and publishes it on RUclips. It shouldn't get crazier.
Haha! I’m really not sure quite how to take that comment!? 🙂
Inane comment
@@JamesKerLindsay It would be more interesting if you shared the knowledge in regards to which countries were behind the 2016 coup in Turkiye, instead of calling Erdogan outright "Authoritarian" for following the law and punishing people who killed over 300 civilians.
The points that you missed you really put question on your credibility by telling only the side of story you want to tell.
here is what I understand from the events of the past weeks: after what just happened in russia back in the days, i mean wagner crisis or fiasco u can call it however u want, i think erdogan started to believe he can't trust russia and they are not strong as he thought. so he wanted to start his turn while there is still ukrania war goes on. plus turkey's economy is not in good state and erdogan needs foreign help. at first, he tried to get middle eastern investments but they did not help much, turkey needs more help so these factors and events pushed him try to be friends with the west again.
It is my first time on your site. Thank you for a comprehensive and fair analysis. I do however differ on your conclusions that the primary reason for rapprochement from Erdogan is the financial situation. Granted it is part of the reasons but I reckon it is deeper and more strategic than that. It seems it is more Turkiye setting the agenda instead of following the dictates of EU and USA. This is inline with the brazen way Erdogan went neutral on the Russia War on Ukraine, the mending of relations with Israel and the Gulf. My reading is reinforced by the keeness of the West to dance to the Turkiye music I.e. greement to sell the F-16s, offers of financial support from EU and embracing of Erdogan despite the active demonisation in the run up of the elections. Unfortunately, despite the brilliance of your analysis, it seems you are blindsighted by the euro centric narrative that EU and the west still pull the strings that others dance to. Is it possible that the West are underestimating Turkiye and Erdogan the same way they did against the rise of China, BRICS and now the Gulf? A Bynzentine cannot be underestimated if history is to be remembered.
Thanks so much. And a warm welcome. You could well be right. But after all these years, I’m not sure many Western leaders underestimate Erdogan. Or trust him. But they do know that given the choice it is better to have him close by than getting too friendly with Putin. They will give him goodies and treats ti help that. But I don’t think they will be fooled. Then again, maybe he has changed. 😀
I think not , what we saw in Vilnius is more to do with American arm twisting than with anything else .
Erdogans core voters do not have EU membership as a priority and see Turkiye as the regional power and want to keep it that way .
I have no doubt that at some point in the future Turkiye will join the EU but we are looking at least 15/20 years from now .
The biggest obstacle Turkiye has in joining is its military who will lose considerable power and influence should Turkiye ever join .
Even countries such as Afghanistan, Yemen, Somalia and North Korea have a higher chance of joining the European Union than Türkiye. Because Türkiye is a big fish. I am saying this as a Turkish.
ağa eğer mülteciler olmasaydı belki bir şekilde kabul ederlerdi
@@regular89 imkansız. avrupa birliğine Türkiye gibi bir ülke girdiği zaman 4-5 milyon nüfuslu ülkeler ile aynı söz hakkını kabul etmez en fazla 10 sene sonra Almanya'nın koltuğunu ister. Avrupa yaşlanıyor, Türkiye'nin genç nüfusu var; Avrupa'ya girersek yeni bir çin vakası oluruz:)
An inevitable outcome.
6:11 Objetion, Mr. Professor. ''US style presidential System'' maybe it's just likeness of 'morphology' or just denomination : 'presidental system'. American system is the real one which itself gives the notion to literature of political science. Turkish one is very negative derivation, indeed frankly saying 'bastard'. Turkish system no check no balance, and no rule of law, the Parliment is now like an organ of consultation. Turkish 'presidental' system is an uniform firmly tailored for Mr. Erdogan by dirty-referandum of April 2017. I* call the new regime tyranny with ballot (tyrannie au scrutin)(*I have no academic title, just ordinary guy at my own).
Thanks. Great points! I’m actually not a fan of the US system. I don’t think it is healthy to mix U.K. the roles of head of state and head of government. It can lead to abuses of power and a sense of having too much control. I like systems where the two roles are separated. One carries the symbolic representation of the state, but not power. And the other has power, but is second to the head of state in terms of precedent and symbolism.
Even before watching your analysis, I've always viewed this issue arising out of American, and European arrogance.
It's a all very well when it's American or European interests, but if anyone else serves their interests, then they're being idiots. It's an ignorant, and childish approach.
I'll add more after listening to your analysis.
I don’t think Erdogan wants to be tied to the West alone. He wants to be free to explore Turkish influence across Central Asia, the Middle East and Africa. Unfortunately for him, the Turkish economy cannot carry his ambitions at present, and so he needs the west for now. Combined with the need to rebuild numerous cities destroyed by the recent earthquakes, and his election win, along with the weakening of Putin, explains his current 180 degree U-turn in relation to the west.
Thank you. Great points. The scale of recent spending has been enormous. And, as you say, Turkey can’t keep up with it. I attended a briefing recently that detailed how all of this fits together and just how dire the situation is - made worse by Erdogan’s particular economic approach. It was alarming, to put it mildly. But, fortunately, it does seem as though he has now understood the scale of the problem. Apparently, the new finance minister had a long, frank conversation with him. Perhaps Erdogan realised that unless things changed, his legacy would be a collapsed economy. The question is what he will now see as his goal for what many think could well be his final term.
The greatest success of the Turks, their history as administrators,has been little appreciated in the West. For six hundred years the Ottoman Empire ruled successfully over a great land, an imperial record that can stand with that of Romans. The Ottomans created an empire of unique toleration, where many peoples and religions kept their own traditions at a time when religious persecution was the rule elsewhere. It was an empire of laws, held together by rules as much as by the personality of the sultan. It is no accident that the great sultan Süleyman, known to the West as The Magnificent, was known to the Turks as The Lawgiver, asign of his and the Empire's true success.
If the achievements of the Turks in politics and law are littleknown in America, those in the humanities are even less so. Yet Turkish music, art, architecture, and poetry were the crowning glories, coming as they do from a different cultural tradition. The beauty of Turkish poetry may only be fully appreciated in Turkish and Turkish classical music may not perfectly match whatis expected by Western ears, but the beauty of Turkish art caneasily be seen. The grace of Turkish calligraphy, the colors of Turkish miniature paintings, and the geometric forms of Turkishporcelain tiles are known to be high art by anyone who has seenthem. The great mosques of Istanbul, especially Sinan's Süleymaniye Mosque, rival any buildings in the world.
The accomplishments of modern Turkey have been in a different context. The task of the modern Turks was to create a democratic,independent society. In a time of imperialism, Turkey was oneof the few nations to keep its independence, despite great odds against it. Turkey was almost unique outside of Western Europeand North America in its sustained drive to gain democracy. Firs tnoted under Mustafa Kemal Atatürk for its campaign to educateand develop its people to live in the modern world. Turkey now is an economic success and a multiparty democracy. It is one of the few countries of its region that have significantly raised itself up economically, without oil revenues to depend on. Muchremains to be done, but the success is notable.
Today, Turkey is a bridge between the Middle East and the West,as well as a bridge between the West and the newly freed lands of Central Asia. It is a state whose people are overwhelmingly Muslim, yet also a state that is thoroughly secular in its lawsand government. The great tradition of Islam is not forgotten,nor is the tradition of western philosophy, government, and technology.
Hmm yes Ottomans where so tolerant with their Christian women as concubines for their leaders!
Turkish toleration? That is a myth.
Can a Muslim state really and truly be a genuine and trustworthy ally of Europe and the West? Erdogan's anti West speeches and conduct over many years should make us very wary of his Islamist based motives. Erdogan constantly celebrates long past Ottoman/Islamic military victories over European forces (while avoiding any mention of numerous and considerably more significant defeats of Turkey at the hands of Western and Russian forces). It seems highly likely that Erdogan loathes the success, wealth and power of Western 'Christian' civilisation, which he views with the envy of a zealous Islamist. The West should not reward him too generously for his recent two faced about-face, not least because the forthcoming economic crisis in Turkey is largely of his own making and could result in his rapid downfall.
Is there any islamist motives? Even the islamist countrys are fighting against each others. I don't think Turkey wants to join EU, they would need to transfer Power to Brüssel and so on .
Actually, when the army of Sultan Suleiman Khan the Magnificent surrounded the capital of the Holy Roman Empire - Vienna, and besieged it, the Emperor pleaded defeated, calling himself the son (read - the vassal) of the Sultan and calling the Sultan as his father. After that, the siege of the city was lifted. And Sweden of those days and even much later was a long-standing ally of the Magnificent Porte.
we dont need garbage nato also Eu.just business notting else between us.
These are always good, informed and balanced presentations. Can't praise the presentation and information enough. I don't think that Turkey has a "tinker's chance in hell" of joining the EU given the islamic nationalist basis of the current Turkish government. There was a very good, cogent and practical reason that Ataturk wanted the republic of Turkey to be secular. Erodgan has as his major goal the ending of the Ataturk's vision for Turkey. As he does this, he is going to get further and further away from EU membership hopes. That he prefers Russia is obvious as he is a dictator just a Putin is (remember Putin also won huge popular "democratic" vote approval). While it is understandable that in the 1950s that Turkey's membership in NATO was desired and indeed probably critical, this is no longer the case. Turkey needs to be removed from the alliance. It no longer has a place in it.
Thank you so much! I really appreciate it.
Yes, I think you’re right about Erdogan’s vision. And Turkey has become a terrible alliance member. But I do wonder if the gravity of the situation is finally dawning on him. Apparently, he had been told in no uncertain terms that the economy is in a mess and dangerously close a full crisis if he doesn’t act. The question is how long will any good behaviour last!?
I am from Türkiye 🇹🇷 Türkiye is becoming islamist. Türkiye has no place in NATO. Türkiye should be removed
Financial greeds and double faced🫣
There is no such a thing "Kurdish terrorism". You mean PKK terrorism I guess, which is formally recognised as a terrorist organisation by USA and EU. If you say Kurdish terrorism, then you blame millions of people who are living in most of the countries in the Middle East. Please be careful about your expressions if you are really informed about international politics!
Thanks. I understand. But it is perfectly normal to use terms like this as shorthand for describing a form of terrorist activity without accusing people. We would routinely refer to Islamic terrorism, Irish terrorism, Sikh terrorism, Palestinian terrorism. I don’t think anyone believes that this blames all Muslims, Irish, Sikhs, or Palestinians. Sometimes a term is just used as a way of quickly and simply identifying something. After 40,000 views, you are the only person who has raised it. I think most people understand the differences. But I do see your point.
@@JamesKerLindsay I thank you for your response. But, for example, the expressions like Islamic terrorism can lead ordinary people to internalise or self-ratified some bias about Muslims. Lots of surveys showed how public opinion can change with the words used by media. However, there are some 'experts' who use or even create the expressions like this to demonize countries, peoples or groupes.
It's the same for the PKK terrorism. It should be awkward to hear Arabic terrorism or Afgan terrorism from Americans. Why? Because they aimed specific enemies which they thought as terrorists. They couldn't fight with whole Arabic or Afgan people. In Türkiye case, there're lot of Kurdish ministries and deputies, even the vice president of Erdoğan is a Kurdish. Because of that, it's not wise to use the word terrorism and Kurdish.
I know it's hard to understand these kind of specific regional-national problems which are politically weaponized between countries against each other since decades or even centuries.
I find your video too biased sadly. You mostly one sidedly show Erdogan as the problem maker mean while a lot of the situation has been caused by the West. First of all Turkey had a better or at least similar level democracy and corruption level with a lot of the Balkan countries who are in the EU. Turkey not getting accepted to EU is nothing to do with democracy criteria or what so ever. Turkey is a Muslim country with a population bigger population than Germany which would make Turkey the country with the most say inside the EU. There is a big prejudice towards Turkey already from the history and the religious difference on top of that is already enough reason for EU to not accept Turkey.
On the topic of Russian Turkish relation I only see NATO to blame. Constant support on Kurdish terrorist organizations, military embargos like the PAC3 systems obviously pushes Turkey to seek alternatives elsewhere. Sweeden supporting terrorist organisations and then Turkey apparently making a "big deal" out of this is just so one sided. Typical Western mentalitiy... Where was NATO when Turkey was fighting against Russia in Libya, Syria, Azerbaijan, Sudan, Somalia and West Africa? A lot of the Western countries were siding with Russia against Turkey. Turkey even got "told off" or got more embargos for fighting Russians and winning as well. Internationally recognized Azerbaijani terriroties has been occupied by Armenia for 30+ years with the help of the West, the moment Turks get their lands back the whole international community unite against Turks. Quite ironic to see Russia and the West always agree to the same policies against Turks.
No NATO country backed Turkey when they shot the Russian jet, so Turkey had to fix their relations with Russia. If the WEST give the %10 of the support they give to Ukraine to Turkey there wouldn't be any Russians in the Syria and in the North Africa. Instead they try to orchestrade a coup in Turkey and act like nothing happened when they fail.
Why didn't you mention the fact that unrecognized Kemalist Turkey allied with unrecognized communist Russia for getting financial and ammunition help to fight against Western allies?
Because I can’t possibly hope to fit in every detail of every issue. I always get viewers lining up to ask why I didn’t include this or that but if information. If I tried, each video would be hours long. So I try to condense information down to main points. In this case, the fact remains that Turkey chose to be neutral in WWII.
wtf in Germany please
Да Турки и историю забыли ,и про Коран и про крестоносцев 🤔☝
You were in the headlines in finland recently for blaming ahtisaari for kosovo troubles! I doubt any fans will come here attacking you though, unlike if you even mentiln russia! 😂
These people want two things: the F16 and associated technologies; and, a dominant position extracting Mediterranean oil and gas.
it's self explanatory to have such a claim when you have the longest coastline in the East Med.
@@emre05x The Greeks have the longest coastline in the East Med.
@@MrBetabit aegean doesn‘t count as east med. it is its own sea.
Right exactly ,you get the point !
Triggers ,is of what they are.
Not long ago , and for almost a year, they was threading Greece, about the Aegean islands. From their priminister till the last teenager. Then and after the earthquakes they becomes softer , till now, they are despair about their F 16s update. US , push them a pit ..! that so ,they can pass through a needle hole.
They still occupied the half almost of Cyprus, ignoring of all of the UN resolutions about peace and justice for the island. They are even trying in our days to turn those occupied areas, in to a separate " recognise " state ..
EU membership is a non-starter even if 26 of the 27 EU members back it (which they dont) as Cyprus that is still in a state of war with Turkey will not until the occupation of the country ends (and that isnt likely to happen anytime soon!) . Turkey knows this and isnt too concerned so long as the EU can provide the necessary financial assistance to get them out of the economic hole that Erdogan has dug for his country. Turkey will always be deemed too important by some in the west (namely US, UK and Germany) to be fully abandoned due to its size and strategic position, so the relationship will be 'mended' to keep them out of Russia's arms.
BLOODY WARMONGER WEST!
I absolutely love these videos. I wish Americans would take a greater interest in events beyond our shores. Kemal Ataturk would roll over in his grave to see the demise of western oriented and secular Turkey. The treatment of the Gay community with water cannons and severe repression of our community should be enough to deny EU membership and expulsion from NATO. Greg Adams, Graduate of the University of Memphis with a Geography minor. From Springfield, Louisiana, USA. I would like to see you to focus on South Africa. 9 time visitor to my beloved and adopted South Africa.
Every EU member has the right to veto a candidate's membership. France with its delusions of grandeur, dislikes the fact that it's only the second most powerful country of the EU and they are definitely not in favor of becoming the third, they also dislike Turkey. When Germany the biggest EU country with the most seats in Parliament has a population of 83 million, a country of 87 million like Turkey is too much to swallow. No European country would want us get the most seats in the European Parliament. Apart from that, Turkey and the EU have conflicting interests. Turkey was promised that the Cyprus issue would not become an obstacle for its membership. While the Turkish Cypriots voted in favor of the Annan plan, the Greek Cypriots voted against the solution of solving the Cyprus issue. It was only due to Greece's blackmail to block the accession of Central and Eastern European countries, that the Greek part of Cyprus was still awarded with EU membership despite not meeting the Copenhagen criteria. This is a clear example of the EU's double standards.Turkey and TRNC will not agree on anything but a two-state solution, which the Greeks don't accept. Greece and the Greek Cypriots want the Turkish Cypriots to become a minority with only minority rights. Greece and the Greek Cypriots would not vote in favor of Turkey's membership. Aside from maybe a handful of countries, all the other members would veto Turkey's membership no matter how secular our government would be. Our national interests are more important than an EU membership. As a Kemalist Turk, I have never been in favor of Turkey becoming a member of the EU. Handing over sovereignty to the EU goes against our values. As a Kemalist I value our independence. I believe that Turkey and the EU can have good relations, but nothing more than that.
its all about money James. not a friendly turn and he is not sincere.
he will play sweet until he get what he wants from the west. and when the west’s offerings run out, he will find another country to beg for.
im sure youre watching the gulf countries? :)
thank you for your video..
Erdogan himself will never be admitted to EU and USA will never admitted back to F-35 program. However, if West is serious about being friendly with Turkey, they should at least deliver them latest Gen 4 fighters, like late model F-16. Also, access to Western job markets for Turks should be at least on level of India and Ukraine. Otherwise, West is not serious.But expecting that Turkey completely spoils relations with Russia and gets nothing in return is not serious statesmanship.
Erdogan was directly involved in helping Azerbaijan, during the 2020 war; but, that war was actually an escalation of what has become a 21st Century Armenian Genocide, a century after the 20th Century Armenian Genocide. Erdogan is a fascistic autocrat, no better than Mussolini, and potentially as bad as Hitler.
Off Email from UNHCR Malaysia. ↙️↗️ ??
yes - the little **Muck.... landing arrival - back with *Flying carpet....
Biden: I should tell you though, F-16 sale has to go through Congress.
Erdogan: Ahh, ok. Then #Sweden's NATO bid has to go through parliament.
Biden: -_-
Erdogan: -_-
Sweden: Wait a minute... Does that mean we are in or not?
Erdogan: Ask him.
Biden: ...
Yes, this is looking more and more like a standoff. Apparently, the vote might not go before the Turkish parliament until October.
just this summarized it completely
Meanwhile Orban is just happy Erdogan is taking all the heat off of him
@@holyfordus orban's country is member of Turkic union.Orban and Erdogan act together
@@veritasvirtuslibertas3787 nope, Hungary is an observer not a member.
Well, I wouldn't say 'Western Return', maybe more like 'Erdogan sees better opportunities for his political ambitions if he aligns with the west' kind of thing.
exactly . Just some people like big headlines
Erdogan showed himself to be an opportunistic actor and the West knows this. Any relationship between the West and Turkey will be purely transactional and done at arms length going forward.
Erdogan fully understands the nature of Turkeys relationship with the WEST which is transactions in essence. The west on the other hand is not comfortable with an assertive Turkey
@Legiion513.
This is 100 percent true. The idea of Turkey being a staunch ally of the west is not really possible, that ship sailed a while ago.
This relationship reminds me of domestic violence. You can only beat your partner an X amount of times before she decides look for other avenues.
That is essentially what Turkey is in it's relationship with the west. The batter partnered who isn't going to forget so easily.
@@williamdavis9562 While I agree with your take on Turkey, I feel like this is a very Western interpretation of things. From Turkey's perspective, there's likely a lot to dislike about the West's actions recently. There's obviously the US support for Kurds causing issues with Turkish internal security. There's also the wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria, which destabilized their backyard. Basically, from each side's perspective, the other looks like the abuser. And I'm saying this as an American.
@@wlee9888 Same here, I'm an American who spent considerable amounts of time in that country.
The way things are framed are sometimes so detached from reality it makes my head spin.
Not just Turkey though, that is simply the nature of our globalist media. You use them as a source for most issues around the globe you'll be fed some rather strange narratives, highlighting some facts but leaving out some very big ones.
Watching the media coverage on the Ukraine war reminds me of this.
So a lot of these analysis videos on youtube are done in good faith, the issue arises due to the narratives they're fed by the vast majority of sources controlled by the globalist cabal. You rarely walk away from it thinking you learned something new, it's essentially half truths.
As many of said, we live in a post truth era. Narratives matter more than reality.
Many people I talk to about Turkey here in the west simply don't understand how deep Turkey's anger really goes. I'll hear things like "oh we if we XYZ we'll bring them back in the fold." And I'm like "nope, they'll never really join the fold ever again."
@@wlee9888 oh please do you know anything about Turkish history? One of the worst human rights records on earth, for the past 100 years, and that excludes everything they did before people started keeping record of these things. The idea a country like Turkey would talk about terrorists and complain about them is beyond me. They can’t even get themselves to admit the Armenian genocide, they can’t even admit to themselves that they have no free media, they can’t even admit to themselves that they have a dictator, they can’t even admit to themselves that their president &#@ them over and left thousands of them dying under an earthquake because he’s too much of a crook, and he endorses theft. And they still managed to vote him right back in. Turkey is the elephant in the room that everyone is politely dancing around.
I think Putin was expecting way more support from Turkey. Of course, Turkey has not become the strongest supporter of “the West/Nato/UE/Ukraine” but I think it’s fair to say he has lost this bet as well…
Thanks. I think you are right. This isn't paying off so well for Putin. But this simply could be because of the dire state of the Turkish economy rather than principle. In that regard, Orban is looking like a better bet.
@JamesKerLindsay
Hullo Mr.James . !
Sir ,
I understant that I interfere a lot ,in those sides , repeating myself ,
but,
Sir , you have to realize that as a Cypriot , seen my country suffering
is just too much ..for me , !
turkey sent the tb2 s before russian invasion (germany sent 5000 helmets btw 😂) which helped ukraine to hold the line until the western help arrives. for 2 weeks, there were just bayraktars and blood of brave ukrainen soldiers. all i m saying is turkey was, is and will be the one of top supporters of ukraine. turkey relies so much on russian money, and never go against russia until the west help them solve the economic issues. do not expect turkey to turn on russia while west treating turkey like sh.t. ( do not forget 10 mil refugees turkey hold, to keep europe happy)
Russia is not the west. They don’t play- I expect you or I order you card when it is not about their security. I am not sure you understand Putin well. He never travelled to Africa blackmailing leaders on money to pay for aid or gas to conform to their way of thinking. He did not travel to teach leaders about what a woman is or what who they should do business with. Unlike the west, blackmailing on food and aid to conform to their way of thinking. Putin had no expectations. Russian way of thinking is - what I think no one in the west understand- at the end we only have ourselves, it’s about counting on ourselves in life. That’s all.
I don’t think Turkey will ever join the EU. The cultural differences are too significant. Besides that, when a large country like Turkey join the EU it will reduce power of countries like Germany and France. Plus the EU will directly border a volatile region like the Middle East. Plus there will be a new immigration crisis with many people wanting to move to Western Europe.
Europeans are less tolerant now of Muslims than they were back in the 2000s (and frankly, vice versa). The idea that this would ever happen is crazy, I agree with you.
@@dunnowy123r maybe because Turkey Is an expansionist power which occupies EU territory?
Well get Albania as It Is sooner or later but this kind of Turkey? Hell no
@@thereita1052What is "EU territory?" LOL I don't think the occupation of norther Cyprus is the reason Europeans don't want Turkey in the club
@@dunnowy123 exept it was the reason talks to join the EU stopped lol? Cyprus has the Power to keep Turkey away from the EU until the sun dies.
Heck even the Turkish "mission" in Syria Is enought to stop the acession not to count the unrecognized crimes against humanity during ww1
half of turkey is european and other half is middle eastern/central asian
PROF JAMES,
Please tell me which promised kept EU: I tell you NONE.
how you can expect Turkish people to be favor of EU membership.
Thanks Prof. That was interesting. From a layman's point of view, it just looks like Turkey was going all in on Russia, but now with Russia's future a big question mark, he's looking for a new option. He really has no other option, what can Belarus provide him? Will be interesting to see if he's willing to make the necessary changes to pursue the western option.
All in on Russia? Are you Greek or blind?
The man is two faced. Both sides know that. Only a matter of time before Erdogan runs out of luck in his poker game he is playing between two sides. Turkey economy is in deep do do! and he just about won the elections shows the mess he is heading in. Patience with him from all sides is fraying. the east do not trust him or his word and neither does the West.
As always, a nuanced and interesting perspective. Thanks for posting!
Good move Mr. President Erdoğan.
Don't get your hopes up. Both parties walked back on their promises after the initial photo op, with parliament timelines and formalities given as excuses in unison. They are still bargaining, both privately and publicly.
The thing is Erdogan gave his word publicly that Sweden will join NATO soon.
Erdogan is a man of his words, so if parliament goes against him that makes him look weak.
@@bruceli9094 That goes both ways. Erdogan and Turkiye were promised things as well. Both parties can play that game. If you think everything is set in stone, you are mistaken. They are still bargianing, publicly.
@@emreus1 The thing is, it doesn't go both ways. The other party has fulfilled what was agreed upon (as also stated by the NATO secretary general). They have also early on stated openly some things they cannot agree to (which was not in the deal) because of fundamental laws.
So yeah, no. It doesn't go both ways. I hope Erdogan publically keeps breaking deals and ask for more handouts/bribes.
Sanctions on Russia benefited Russia the most while only hurting Europe and West. Thanks to all the commodity prices. Europe still has to buy the oil and gas somehow and now it buys them via Saudis or Indians buying them from Russians first + the premium into Europe and West. Sanctions have backfired i think. High tech sanctions only would've worked better.
What's up with the graph in 12:02? Pretty sure Croatia was already a member of EU in 2016
@JamesKerLindsay: Could you do a video analyzing the pros and cons, from a European perspective, of Türkiye's accession to the EU? I am puzzled as to what Türkiye brings to the table that can't already achieved through participation in other organizations or treaties; it seems to me it is more trouble than it is worth. Why would Europeans want to extend their borders, and Schengen right up to Iraq or Syria's door?
Nobody was fleeing Iraq or Syria before USA "visit". And Libya is next door (and boat ride) to Italy and Greece. But problem is that in EU nationalism is on the rise, and any expansion, especially with large Muslim country faces strong popular resistance. Explore how goes with ascension processes of various West Balkan countries and it will give some examples...
@@mladenmatosevic4591 I concur but it's besides the point. The US did what it did, now the rest of the world pays for their hubris.
But before these invasions this always was a problematic neighborhood, do you honestly think people would not have been fleeing Iraq if it bordered a European Türkiye?
In any case med to long term the issue of human migration will only get worse with climate change, which is why I wonder why anyone would want to grant Türkiye membership. It seems that would further empower right wing nationalists
@@electrosyzygy 50 or even just 25 years ago nobody saw neighborhood as key problem why Turkey cannot be member of EU, otherwise accession talks would not have been started. And "climate change" is straw man argument in this discussion. Main reason for opposition to enlargement is "diluting key values". As is now obvious, in many countries which carried feudalism to 19th sentury, many people believe that cheating system (meaning state) is acceptable and that behaviour is not limited to top level business owners. Carrying gifts to doctors and public officials was common in Ottoman Empire too, and Balkans was long time part of it. As it goes, it starts as small and innocent but ends up on large values. And if you wanted to ask, in Russian Empire was same behaviour, long before Bolsheviks...
@@mladenmatosevic4591 I'm not sure what you mean about the culture of nepotism and corruption in the Ottoman and Russian empires. Also unsure about the relevance of what we're talking about.
And I strongly disagree with your statement about the Middle East not being seen as problematic 50 years ago. 50 years ago the region was rife with conflict, there had been a few wars with more on the way, and Baathism was morphing I to authoritarianism.
I do understand that nationalists use 'values' as an argument when dealing with Muslim nations. That's not what I'm concerned with.
Simply, rationally, what does Türkiye bring to the table that Europe can't otherwise get? My contention is that Türkiye as it is now, let alone what things will be like in a few years, is probably not worth the trouble for many reasons but I'm curious what Prof JKL thinks.
Expanding Europe and Schengen to the Middle East would accelerate migration and facilitate human trafficking, further straining European finances, and you can be sure this will enhance right-wing and fascicizing political parties.
@@electrosyzygy EU functions as lose confederation so close supervision from centre does not exist and in culture of corruption muney from funds are sucked by corruption network regardless of project quality, so money is spend inefficiently. As for expansion 50 years ago people leading EU envisioned endless expansion. It would take too long to discuss why. Realistically, EU must absorb West Balkans and maybe Moldova. Everything else means huge border and other complications with less gain then even Turkey.
People like to put Erdogan in a label, either pro-Western due to Turkish membership of NATO, and aspiration for EU membership (unlikely to happen in my opinion), or pro-Russia, due to his reservations over Swedish/Finnish NATO membership, and close links to Putin. I say he is a pragmatist, trying to be with both sides and none at the same time. He is trying to straddle a very fine line between a polarised relationship of Russia and the West
Thanks as always Dr. Ker Lindsay for providing a measured basis for discussion
There are so many angles to the geopolitics of Turkey in the last decade, it’s quite fascinating. I like that you point out the financial situation as well.
I definitely agree this is one of the key diplomatic issues both short and long term, just because of how many other issues it affects, and seems to be constantly evolving
Thanks again for the video professor!
Thank LocalLt. Turkey seems to keep us all busy. It’s such a fascinating country, in so many ways. It will be interesting to see the direction this latest turn eventually takes! I hope all is well at your end.
Son kararı Türkiye parlamentosu verecek
We've already forgotten that the main stumbling block to Turkey's admission to the EU were human rights issues. "Crack down" = repression. I was talking to a Turkish person in Lesbos last week. He made a very differentiated and intellectual impression on me. In his opinion, Erdogan is bad but not as bad as he's painted in the western press - He's a pragmatist, an opportunist - he has repeatedly done 180 degree turns in the past on controversial issues, when it became clear to him that the opposite view to his rhetoric had become more popular. The Turkish economy is on the brink of "Titanic mode" and it has mostly to do with Erdogan's ignorance and rejection of established remedies to cyclic economic crises. Now he's trying to butter up Europe to foot the bill for his stupid arrogance. If I was a fund manager, I would continue to red tag Erdogan's Turkey as an unstable investment, and the instability rests firmly on Erdogan's doorstep. It could be for example, that he perceives the wind to have changed to his disadvantage in the near future and throw Turkey's potential new rescuers back into open water. In other words: Erdogan’s record shows he can't be trusted and that causes investors to back off.
I have to say I chuckled when NATO and EU leaders, and the media were baffled by Erdogan''s blackmail last week, followed by a quick 180 degree turn. Because in domestic politics, that's what Erdogan have been doing his entire career. I fully agree with Erdogan being a pragmatist and an opportunist.
@@cemdursun how pragmatic is he when he pisses everybody off? He’s managed to make everyone distrust him, however, it’s no new discovery.
@@TenTenJ He lost trust long before this. Pissing them off is just the game he plays. We don't know what was negotiated just yet. (Hint: F16)
Erdoğan is a loose cannon. He acts as he pleases and doesn't take advice from the Turkish Central Bank, Economists or other outside country.
At the moment, he knows he's in deep trouble and needs outside support and Russia doesn't represent enough in that regard.
I despise this western insecurity y'all display at every corner. Western media shits on their own every day, you choose to not see it. As for Erdogan, when trolls were happy that he won, because that "would make the west mad", I was confused, I am 100% sure that he made a bargain with Europa and they helped him win actually. The west knows that nobody does a bargain like the Turks! He is to be admired in this regard. And yes, Turkey needs to clean a bit their act and I would be happy to see them in the EU!
I think Erdogan is much more trustable as a human being than Putin ever was.
The hard fact is his principles probably run counter to modern european ones.
However, I think if different human beings can at least be authentic and honest to themselves it becomes less of a challenge ironing out differences in principles.
But the major concern isTurkey is not just Erdogan. Its population is not just of the former southern european stock of Roman Empire but have over last 1000 of years included the Siberian Turkic , Central Asian mongolian and Middle Eastern Arabic people.
In any democracy the demography of population matters which Is also why I am against uncontrolled migration into Europe.
The world is not a safe place for people who wishes to keep the battle for democracy and basic human rights up and running, most parts of the world and the population goes by might is right philosophy and I am no one to challenge that even if I wish to do, since the ideas of democracy and respect for human rights being entrenched within the state apparatus in practice are just 100 odd years old while the might is right one ran right from modern human inception.
In an increasingly equatable world it will become increasingly challenging to keep the democratic mindset intact.
I really doubt that. Ask the Asian nations. China is not impressed with them either. Turkey is two faced.
As A liberal Turk,Erdoğan is a highly unpredictable person. Words don't matter for Erdogan, results matter. In recent years, we have had much better relations with Russia compared to previous periods. There are several reasons for this, such as the issues of Syria and Karabakh, as well as the tourists coming from Russia. Considering the high inflation rate, Erdoğan does not want to directly confront Putin at the moment. However, Erdoğan is well aware that Turkey will never be an ally of Russia. When you live in a country like Turkey, you will always need friends, so Turkey will never leave NATO and become allies with Russia.
As for the European Union, Turkey will never be a member of the EU. In fact, the blame lies with Turkey in this regard because no European country would want to include a country that lacks democracy and has a high level of corruption in its union. If I were European, I wouldn't want Turkey in the EU, Erdogan knows better than Europeans that Turkey cannot become an EU member. but Erdoğan has a few reasons for doing so:
1) Sending a message to Western countries "we want you."
2) Deceiving his own people."
Every EU member has the right to veto a candidate's membership. France with its delusions of grandeur, dislikes the fact that it's only the second most powerful country of the EU and they are definitely not in favor of becoming the third, they also dislike Turkey. When Germany the biggest EU country with the most seats in Parliament has a population of 83 million, a country of 87 million like Turkey is too much to swallow. No European country would want us get the most seats in the European Parliament. Apart from that, Turkey and the EU have conflicting interests. Turkey was promised that the Cyprus issue would not become an obstacle for its membership. While the Turkish Cypriots voted in favor of the Annan plan, the Greek Cypriots voted against the solution of solving the Cyprus issue. It was only due to Greece's blackmail to block the accession of Central and Eastern European countries, that the Greek part of Cyprus was still awarded with EU membership despite not meeting the Copenhagen criteria. This is a clear example of the EU's double standards.Turkey and TRNC will not agree on anything but a two-state solution, which the Greeks don't accept. Greece and the Greek Cypriots want the Turkish Cypriots to become a minority with only minority rights. Greece and the Greek Cypriots would not vote in favor of Turkey's membership. Aside from maybe a handful of countries, all the other members would veto Turkey's membership no matter how secular our government would be. Our national interests are more important than an EU membership. As a Kemalist Turk, I have never been in favor of Turkey becoming a member of the EU. Handing over sovereignty to the EU goes against our values. As a Kemalist I value our independence. I believe that Turkey and the EU can have good relations, but nothing more than that.
12:00 - that poll is nearly 10 years old!
I don’t think that Türkiye will join the EU as some already said, as the country is too big and borders countries like Syria and Iraq. I believe Türkiye will go his own way like it was doing the last couple of years always in mind Türkiye first and as within the next 5-10 years Türkiye will be a super power in military I’m curious about the future…
❤❤❤ Teşekkürler umarım.
For those who think Turkey will align with Russia or the West, the biggest problem is they haven't understood the Turks as clear as expected. The Turks are overproud of themselves and only care about themselves, they do not believe on any total alliance, even if this comes to their own kins (unless coming from the same Oghuz tribes).
The nature of the Turks are always about competing for power and influence. They do not have the idea of human rights or social rights. It's about themselves and only, which makes them perfectly suited to Churchill's quote, "no lasting friends, no lasting enemies, only lasting interests". For once, Turkey allied with Russia for interests, but when it became clear that Turkey found that Azerbaijan could be threatened from a joint Iranian-Russian alliance since 2022, they switched side. This was what they matter the most - their own Oghuz kins, which is their biggest interests. They don't care about Kipchak Kazakhs, they don't care about Afghans, they don't care about Pakistanis. They care about only themselves.
Well there's also a significant Kemalist section in Turkey. Unfortunately they're in the opposition as Erdogan has occupied all institutions.
@@mv_5878 Even if Kemalists were to gain power again, the old romantic days were long gone. A new reality is being set, and it is not a distortion. It's entirely real. The only thing I feel still staying the same is the ongoing demise of Russia as a superpower.
@@mv_5878 You do realize, that Kemalists would be far more extreme in putting Turkeys interests first, unlike Erdogan who acts as Europes refugee camp, fucked over the economy and education, right?
I have seen some of your previous answers in a variety of videos. You appear to be very well-versed, with Reddington-like takes. Do you like the Blacklist and what do you think about the future of Turkey, if they are that overproud of themselves?
@@huwenkai440 Turkey definitely thinks itself as a regional great power. They hassle far beyond their own borders. I guess when they realised they will never be accepted in the EU (the coup attempt was the last nail in the coffin) they went full neo-Ottoman. I guess you have a point - what else would explain Erdogan's popularity, after he has wrecked the Turkish economy completely, if not collective dreams of grandeur?
Similar to India. They both walking on a fine thread, A great balancing act that might go terribly wrong.
Regards from London,
European Union, if the English out, Turks not interested come in!!
Turks more interested in Turkic union,rather than European union, Ageing and trillions $ in debt Europe!! What future!!
Turks are not silly!
Let’s revisit this if/when a huge financial crisis hits Turkey. Who do you think will really be better placed to help then? That’s the whole point. It’s all very well talking up these new alliances. But when trouble hits, its straight back to the US and EU.
@@JamesKerLindsay reserve
Currency $£€ print moneys
Buy what you want, and not earned!! What a life!! If you think system last long, you will
Be disappointed!! And than
No one comes to you!!
It was interesting to me about how Turkey and Greece actually spoke to each other during the summit. They've done the song and dance before, but still. It was very high profile a thing to happen after some recent developments, like the infamous Blue Homeland map the Turkish leader seems to support.
There is nothing really going on between Türkiye and Greece besides Greece prime minister trying to cover its internal issues by targeting Türkiye.
@@canerulu-wu7ezthink you’re misspelling turkey bro, also does turkeys desire for the agaen not register with Turks as a possible issue for Greece?
@@canerulu-wu7ezTurkey has major issues, the only country in nato without sanctions to Putin... Erdogan is trying to cover his double face! 😅😅😅
@@canerulu-wu7ez Turkey is the destabiliser in Middle East.
Dear professor, why do you undermine the negative impact of the Gulenist movement and other religious cults? The people who are detained and fired from govermental jobs were simply put there to do their "Hodja"s bidding. Also, Fetullah Gülen lives in Pennsylvania, US. The involvement of these people in the Turkish politics were massive in the 2010s. Also, Gulen movement were largely financed by CIA. It seems you are involuntarily undermining the role of these cults. They were like secret organizations within the government. Erdogan is no saint either, but after the attempted coup in 2016, most of the people who ordered police to attack the protestors, or the government attorneys who jailed the generals of TAF were these cultists.
Wow. According to that poll, there is less support for Turkish EU membership than Kazakhstan, Morocco, and Russia! That is very telling. Anyway, I agree that Turkey is nowhere near ready for EU membership. But I think many people in Turkey separate the EU from the US when it comes to dealing with the West. Polls have shown persistent anti-American feelings in Turkey lately, probably due to US operations in Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan. There isn't much love for Russia or China, either. But the EU is seen as a viable partner on strategic and economic issues, much more so than those other three countries. I think Erdogan will continue to oscillate on foreign policy. But it will be interesting to see if the young people in Turkey eventually start to support the kind of reforms that would make the country more suitable for EU membership.
Die Türkei sieht die USA hinter dem Putschversuch im Juli 2016, deswegen sind die USA nicht sehr beliebt. Das sehe übrigens auch so. Das war letzte Versuch der USA mit einem Militärputsch die Türkei wieder in Griff zu bekommen. Zu dieser Tatsache kommen die von Ihnen aufgeführten Punkte. Die Türkei wird sicher keine Rechte an die EU abgeben wollen, deswegen wird die Türkei nie Mitglied in der
EU werden. Die Türkei wird sich in der EU Deutschland und Frankreich nicht unterordnen wollen, das ist ein weiterer Punkt, de gegen die
Mitgliedschaft der Türkei in der Nato spricht
We will see. I guess the future is going to be interesting.
Every EU member has the right to veto a candidate's membership. France with its delusions of grandeur, dislikes the fact that it's only the second most powerful country of the EU and they are definitely not in favor of becoming the third, they also dislike Turkey. When Germany the biggest EU country with the most seats in Parliament has a population of 83 million, a country of 87 million like Turkey is too much to swallow. No European country would want us get the most seats in the European Parliament. Apart from that, Turkey and the EU have conflicting interests. Turkey was promised that the Cyprus issue would not become an obstacle for its membership. While the Turkish Cypriots voted in favor of the Annan plan, the Greek Cypriots voted against the solution of solving the Cyprus issue. It was only due to Greece's blackmail to block the accession of Central and Eastern European countries, that the Greek part of Cyprus was still awarded with EU membership despite not meeting the Copenhagen criteria. Turkey and TRNC will not agree on anything but a two-state solution, which the Greeks don't accept. Greece and the Greek Cypriots want the Turkish Cypriots to become a minority with only minority rights. Greece and the Greek Cypriots would not vote in favor of Turkey's membership. Aside from maybe a handful of countries, all the other members would veto Turkey's membership no matter how secular our government would be. Our national interests are more important than an EU membership. As a Kemalist Turk, I have never been in favor of Turkey coming a member of the EU. Handing over sovereignty to the EU goes against what values and ideals. As a Kemalist I value our independence. I believe that Turkey and the EU can have good relations, but nothing more than that.
Don't count on it, Erdogan in his last presidency period will prop up Hakan Fidan to replace him when his term is over.
@@abadairshiFrance is the most powerful country in the EU now that the UK is out. Germany has got a bigger economy but it's a lot like Japan. It's not a powerful nation anymore it's a rich nation on a leash.