What Works on Wall Street | Jim O'Shaughnessy | Talks at Google
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- Опубликовано: 4 апр 2017
- What it takes to be a successful active investor. Hint, it’s much harder than you think.
Contrast active and passive equity investing. Risk/rewards.
Conclusion-Investors who do not have the following traits and emotional quality should index their portfolios. I find they are the majority of investors today. Also discussion of points of failure for passive and active investors.
What traits and emotional characteristics are required to succeed as an active investor?
A true long-term perspective on their investments.
Discussion of Evolution and why it hampers long-term thinking.
Discussion of behavioral biases that hamper successful long-term active investing.
Power Point illustrations.
Successful active investors value process over outcome.
Short-term focus of investors is killing returns.
Why you need access to truly long-term data to make intelligent choice.
Successful active investors generally ignore forecasts and predictions.
Discussion of studies proving forecasts and predictions are virtually worthless; illustrations documenting the failure of forecasts; both within markets and in outside professions.
Successful active investors are patient and persistent.
Discussion of great investors who may have very different styles, but all share the trait of patience and persistence.
Successful active investors have a strong mental attitude.
Successful investors are made, not born. Discussion of how successful active investors have a mental attitude bordering on stoicism; how they control how they interpret the world.
Tools to use to help you succeed as an active long-term investor.
Long-term data uncovered by What Works on Wall Street that you can use to guide your investment strategy.
The importance of value; momentum; financial strength and earnings quality in putting together your portfolio.
A highlight of stocks with high versus low shareholder yield (Cash dividend %+Bet Buyback %); it’s efficacy since the 1920s
What NOT to own, lottery stocks versus the market.
The importance of a stock’s market capitalization-the most profitable stocks come from the smallest part of the market (Micro cap stocks)
Putting it all together-should you be an active or passive investor?
Weight of the evidence for passive and active investing
Which type of investor are you? Getting the best out of the style you choose.
Discussion and Q/A.
This talk moderated by Saurabh Madaan.
It's over Jim!
It tried also a couple of days ago. All of the sudden Instagram and Facebook shut down.
*chuckles*
Not even wearing a suit are we Jim?
[Smugness intensifies]
Jim doesn't own a suit.
Or a red T-shirt cap and headset!
This is google. He did himself a favor by not wearing a suit
lol
Dude its him. Its the leader of the sweetie squad.
⚡️🎴⚡️
You must have lost a lot of money because you didn't follow his advice. Therefore you are mad at him???
Jade's cooking has really aged you, Jim.
Wow Metokur's mic must be shit. He sounds a lot more rough on streams.
Schnick he sounds different without all the meth and nitrous he huffs on streams
We could have ruled the world together Jim!!!!
Great advice, glad he could help.
It all makes sense, this is definitely metokur.
Watched the killstream yesterday, and this came up in my suggestions. Bloody hell RUclips.
Now this is in my recommendations. Fantastic.
Fascinating. So this is Mister Metokur?
This man groomed me and all my friends. Thanks big guy
YOU REALLY NAILED THAN OPENING JOKE, JIM!
It's an Honor to see the leader of Sweetie Squad's face.
Metokur triggering the libz.
RIP Metokur's anonymity
What a wise and modest man! Thank you for the talk. It was one of the best I've ever heard.
He directly stands against the principles of Benjamin graham and warren buffet. Two of his funds sank do bad in 2000 that they had to shut down. His principles on what works was absolutely ridiculous.
Jim's dad?
That was my first thought lel
He is my summary of the video:
Contrary indicator - 3 year performance
Passive investor face panicking and selling low as a point of failure
Active investors face the above and comparing to the benchmark, russel 2000, russel small or large cap
Base Rates; How often does the strategy beat the benchmark and by how much?
Base rates are vital while managing money
Think in terms of probabilities not possibilities
best investors value Process over outcome
Recency bias is a killer, you need to think long term
Long term data is essential
Don't pay attention to forecasts, they are useless.
Shareholder yield= Buy backs + Dividend yield
What a fantastic conference. Humility in it’s greatness.
Being disciplined and believing in your system. Great advice!
Wow. Those guys are lucky. One of the smartest man alive today. I love rereading his books. The information in his books is worth more than gold.
Pedo's and furred degenerates quake at the sight of him! Shame that his crimefighting alter-ego has been revealed. Now the sickest perverts have noone to fear.
RIP metokur. Thanks for your service Mr O'shaughnessy. We will never forget.
Fuck off NPC.
His best stuff is found on his other channels, Hal, and Mister Metokur.
He is on RUclips, look up MisterMetokur.
One of the smartest man alive today.
One of the smartest men alive today.
Exactly as I thought Jimbo would look like! Say hi to Jade for us, Jim!
Who knew this is the guy who makes fun of furries on the internet
Jim thank you for your crusade against pedophiles and dog rapists, you are a national treasure. 7/10 market advice though.
His next talk is on cub porn.
Wow this is actually a pretty interesting talk jim, who knew my favoreite shitposting eceleb would actually end up teachin me about investing 💲💲✡
I will have those Donga berries for our sweety squad. Jim, keep being a good boy.
Where's your suit, Jim?
God bless you too. Thanks for your support and encouraging comment, you can talk or chat me on my private email address:ganoshaughnessy@gmail.con
He doesn't even own one. Completely blown the fuck out of the water.
Mr metokur revealed
this was a very good video. Thanks!!
excellent and very worth your time and money. Spot on!
you guys need to look for Patrick O'Shaughnessy.
that´s the one who sounds more like Jim.
His narrative is amezing
damn well i guess Jim really is a boomer.
One of the best takes on value investing #Theoriginalquantking
How's the KickFundMe going???
This man groomed me online.
It's easy to grin, when your ship comes in, and you've got the stock market beat;
But the man worthwhile, Is the man who can smile, when his shorts are too tight in the seat.
Jim's rigorous US value index and growth funds ( sold via RBC) cost me a pretty penny during 2008 downturn. Math lesson: if you invest $100, and it goes down to $30, that's market down 70%. To go back to $100, market has to climb 300%.
very good talk! gave me a lot of insight and idea
Glend Maatita If you liked this, check out his Deviants series on his alt channel, Mister Metokur.
brilliant! patience is key to long term results...
Indeed. Soon all the pieces shall be in place and the holocoaster will do loop-the-loops over fields of burning furry carcasses! 🎢🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🎢
Jimmy boy is done for. We all knew he was a literal boomer.
LOL, magnitudes wiser than yourself.
Great talk. But om qeustion on if he had a concentraded strategy he Said yes, 50-75 stocks. For me thats pretty diversified. I guess the quants have a different opinion on what concentrated is than a typical Value investor.
Jan Fredrik A quant fund uses statistical inference of betas, correlation and standard errors to improve on the odds beyond random noise in portfolio return. Therefore, you should expect 1.0 standard deviation to explain 0.78 of the observed population parameters (statistically). As an example, if the S&P 500 is the benchmark that OSAM is measured against 50-75 security choices is only about 10-15% of the population sample (S&P 500 securities). To be able to select a (concentrated) portfolio with better risk/return profile than the index over long period of time consistently, is difficult and impressive.
Considering you can buy an index for 500 or 1000 stocks at a time, 50-75 is VERY concentrated.
As an individual retail investor, holding a significant position in even 50 stocks would be very difficult (since you do still want to watch the fundamentals, and you have a job in addition to your investments), but for a fund manager or institutional investor with billions in assets, it should be trivial.
Omg is this mister metokur
no lmao
Aidan Ferguson this man shares the exact same address as Jim’s girlfriends listed address on the Minnesota voter registry.
Actually forget what I said earlier, Mr. Metokur shares the exact same name as this man and Kiwifarms lists that dude in the address, not this one.
Lol alot of people are saying its his father.
It certainly is. Good ol papa Osheanassy of the bully cabal.
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Time to say goodbye Jim
Wade TheMan You miserable aids ridden leftists wish.
This is Jim's dad gais I'm sooper cereal. Like he has a voice and Jim has a voice and I found the name of someone somewhere named Jade who lives in the center of a lake and Jim has a girlfriend named Jade it's 100% proven now.
Did anyone else laugh their fucking ass off seeing this in their recommended videos?
Bike pump stocks are in the rise after this.
But does he glow in the dark?
Welcome to outer heaven
He talks a lot about staying the course but how do you know you are on the right course to start with? Maybe you have a system for outperforming the market. Maybe you lose money. You stick with it. You lose more money. Maybe it was just a bad system.
the engineers vs lawyers story is incorrect: why would it be rational to pick 100pct lawyers in the group of 10? this is a Bernoulli experiment with 70 pct chance of success and 10 trials and 10 out of 10 lawyers is NOT the most likely scenario... given this is a respected quant guy is concerning... I'm a fan btw
I think your understanding of the problem being solved is not the same as the problem being solved.
genius
애플판
Are Jim's slides available for download anywhere?
they are available at OSAM blog. osamblog.azurewebsites.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/2017-03-21_Talks-at-Google_JimOShaughnessy.pdf
Yes, they’re all compiled on his primary channel, Mister Metokur.
Glad I could help.
Remember kids : just don't.
We're awaiting your orders, Sir Boomer Groomer.
I LOVE BEAUTIFUL INDIA AND ALL INDIANS OF SOVEREIGN, SOCIALIST, SECULAR, DEMOCRATIC AND REPUBLIC OF INDIA
Principal O’Shaughnessy
A sweater?!? Sargon was right, YOU DON’T HAVE A SUIT!
Hey! Its Patty O'Furniture
Imagine all the non sweetie Squad people coming to watch this video and then reading the comments and trying to figure out what the fuck we're all talking about. lol.
Follow him on twitter if you guys want more!
Agree with a lot he said but the response to the last question was weak. The bet started before the big crash so the HFs should have had a great head start from year 2 or 3 onwards. Talking about risk adjusted returns over a 10 year period to justify the dismal performance is clutching at straws imo. Great talk in general though.
I think a longer and more interactive treatment of that question would have been good too. I was glad someone asked it. The takeaway from Jim's answer though was that the Hedge Fund choice was less volatile, so if you can't afford a large drop and are willing to give up larger returns over time, it may be for you.
It does bring into question the whole active management strategy for me because if fees can eat your profit, what chance does a self managed investor have to do out perform the S&P!
Fid The fact that Zero coupon bonds outperform all other asset classes because of the YTM (pull to par value) and no reinvestment choice necessary show how much of an aberration risk/return and pricing of security was during the 2008-2009 period.
He did acknowledge the fees, selection of HF instead of FoF, and QEs monetary support for equity market distortion each time there was a correction. The Fed ensure that the long (S&P bullish) strategy was to be the best portfolio and not risk/return measure such as Sharpe's ratio or Sortino's ratio that consider return odd against drawdown (potential losses).
Jim answer was complete, candor and very robust.
Unless investing is your full time job AND you have the chops (IQ and emotional discipline AND significant capital to manage) you shouldn't be actively investing at all, or so said Benjamin Graham.
He did add the caveat that you might consider actively investing no more than 10% of your total investment pool (with no rebalancing between active and passive sides) if that's what would keep you engaged, since you would probably fail to match the market, but at least your losses would be fire walled.
JIM!?! Is that you?
I like the phrase a lot: "Smartphones... are reducing our attention span from quarters to quarter of second" : ruclips.net/video/w9x09O-csEY/видео.html 11:38
Is this really Jim?
Yes, and it's not just any Jim, it's THE Jim!
No way this is metokur lol
@quotetheraven90 wrong Jim I'm talking about some else nvm
Definitely. Kiwi farms is never wrong. Not ever.
who is jim's dad and why is it over for him
Was Jim named after this guy because Jim's parents thought it would be fun to troll Mr. Billionaire Investor with stories about diaper-furs 37 years later?
so this is jims dad, not actually jim right?
This guy has a narrative ie the base rate narrative.
Sounds like Jim before he took up smoking
Imagine the people scratching their heads not knowing who the fuck mister metokur is
The comments sent my sides into orbit
Glad we could help.
Principal O,Shaghennsey....
Jim is that you?
24:21 he really goes into wiping out those degenerate furries .
at 7:46 Jim Kramer is clueless
Obviously this isn't Metokur, but if the name is correct, Metokur is probably some distant family member, or a cousin, or nephew or something. That would explain the Minnesota connection as well. Metokur is probably old money, lives on a trust fund, has some degree of education, and might not be a millionaire, but not far. That being said, Metokur just doesn't give a shit and prefers to fuck around on the internet all day. I honestly can't say I blame him.
15:42
Cicero was Roman not Greek.
Even if he uses something to change his voice, his cadence seems off from metokur.Trying to keep an open mind but I don’t think it’s him
Don't doubt the Kiwi's.
This shit is far more entertaining, when you think that people think this is MisterMetokur
Games good me bad , you're time is up
Jim's shitty 20 dollar mic really makes him sound different
Any one from grow channel❤️
Q: What do you call two gay Irish men? A: Patrick Fitzgerald and Gerald Fitzpatrick.
People actually think this is metokur smh
grandpa metokur
All the bushes in Africa? Do you people ever get tired?
Jim youve been doxxed
Average IQ is 100, not 120.
Damn that silky voice just runs in the fam, huh?
The billion dollar fam, not proud of their black sheep haha
When you hear somebody this rich speak, you have to wonder what he's trying to do to you that benefits him... and here it is... he makes the majority of us think we are not smart enough to actively invest thus we just stick our money in a fund. This fund of course supports his investments. Thus instead of investing in things that make you rich, you are investing in things that make him rich and lessen his volatility. Buffet has the same message.
Wow!! Who knew you were so smart? You're amazing! Smarter than Buffet, Bogle, Dalio, etc. LOL! 🤣
what's the problem with the comment section here?
Boomer as fuck there Jim
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James O' Shaugnessy the Zoomer Groomer