The real question is will these roadblocks hit us after we made AGI or before. I hope that we could hit singularity before moore's law ends in its broadest defination.
Definitely before because AGI is going to require another step change and a move away from the brute force methods we are using today. AGI depending on how you define it is also going to require advancements in other fields such as robotics, material science, neuroscience etc. There is still so much we don’t know and my belief is that we are just slightly above ground floor…
I feel like the next couple of years will be key in indicating our trajectory. e.g. will GPT 5 really be a big advance or quite incremental? If AI capabilities plateau, and Moore's Law type progress in hardware falters, then we could see a serious economic crash. Then we might never get a singularity.
I would like to hear the comments of Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne, authors of "THE FUTURE OF EMPLOYMENT: HOW SUSCEPTIBLE ARE JOBS TO COMPUTERISATION?"
Sounds like there's an opening for more, smarter programmers - to write all these software optimisation codes, and to define new types of optimized interfaces & protocols...
Thank you, great stuff. I hope you guys make these q&a videos much more often. A kind suggestion: i think the audio recording could be improved a little.
can chips be slown down so much that their power consumption and heat becomes so modest that they can be stacked? does the heat drop faster than the speed drops and is there a floor voltage where the transistors no longer play ball.
I do not see how this video is relevant if you're not also mentioning low power solutions available with photonics. And I do not mean quantum photonics. I mean optical computing. It's very low power. Or is it still too soon to tell?
Moores Law is slowing down in hardware, but I believe we are at the very beginning of a Moore's Law applied to Software.. it is a convergence of the collaborative DevOps tools that we have refined over the last few years, the standards and openness of the use of API's to mash up capabilities, the ubiquitous interconnectedness of all the systems (things aren't created in a vacuum any more and when they are created they are immediately available and connected to others) .. and finally the ability for AI to assist in creating services on top of all of these connections.. not only can I create a new function/service/capability quickly, this new service can drive both physical and digital outcomes. Once I create these, they are available for others to build on top of them.. All of this couldn't have been done if we didn't have convergence of so many past trends.. always connected devices, fast, small, processing, collaborative software tools that allow for communities of practice (GIT), cloud practices, etc etc
Is Moore's law the same for all companies? Why do AMD computers have more cores than Intel computers? Intel cores use less electricity than AMD cores. Yet, AMD computers have a cheaper upfront cost. Should Moore's law be measured by what's the most expensive in the long term or short term? I guess it depends on how much the computer is used. If someone doesn't use their computer very often and doesn't do anything graphically intensive, then it makes sense to buy the cheapest computer. If someone uses their computer a lot, then it makes sense to use the computer that's is the most energy efficient. Most people don't need more than one core. Intel makes a 12 watt core. That's the same amount of electricity used by a human brain. People who don't use photoshop or play high-end video games don't need multiple cores. It's sad what's sold in stores doesn't reflect what consumers actually want/need.
Why not send a GPU cluster to space and have it run using solar umbrella . The data can be sent to and from wirelessly. Such computational space hubs and be a backbone of global computation.
°∆ I believe we are meant to be like Jesus in our hearts and not in our flesh. But be careful of AI, for it knows only things of the flesh such as our fleshly desires (without fear of God) and cannot comprehend things of the Spirit such as true love and eternal joy that comes from obeying God's Word [Galatians 5:16-26]. Man is a spirit and has a soul but lives in a body which is flesh. When you go to bed it is the flesh that sleeps, but your spirit never sleeps and that is why you have dreams, unless you have died in peace physically. More so, true love that endures and last is a thing of the heart. When I say 'heart', I mean 'spirit'. But fake love, pretentious love, love with expectations, love for classic reasons, love for material reasons (love because of material needs) and love for selfish reasons outside God those are things of the flesh. In the beginning God said let us make man in our own image, according to our likeness. Take note, God is Spirit and God is Love. As Love He is the source of it. We also know that God is Omnipotent, for He creates out of nothing and He has no beginning and has no end. That means, our love is but a shadow of God's Love. True love looks around to see who is in need of your help, your smile, your possessions, your money, your strength, your quality time. Love forgives and forgets. Love wants for others what it wants for itself. However, true love works in conjunction with other spiritual forces such as patience and faith - in the finished work of our Lord and Savior, Jesus Christ, rather than in what man has done such as science, technology and organizations which won't last forever. To avoid sin and error which leads to the death of your body and your spirit-soul in hell fire (second death), you must make God's Word the standard for your life, not AI or your flesh. If not, God will let you face AI on your own (with your own strength) and it will cast the truth down to the ground, it will be the cause of so much destruction like never seen before, it will deceive many and take many captive in order to enslave them into worshipping it and abiding in lawlessness. We can only destroy ourselves but with God all things are possible. God knows us better because He is our Creater and He knows our beginning and our end. The prove texts can be found in the book of John 5:31-44, 2 Thessalonians 2:1-12, Daniel 2, Daniel 7-9, Revelation 13-15, Matthew 24-25 and Luke 21. *HOW TO MAKE GOD'S WORD THE STANDARD FOR YOUR LIFE?* You must read your Bible slowly, attentively and repeatedly, having this in mind that Christianity is not a religion but a Love relationship. It is measured by the love you have for God and the love you have for your neighbor. Matthew 5:13 says, "You are the salt of the earth; but if the salt loses its flavor, how shall it be seasoned? It is then good for nothing but to be thrown out and trampled underfoot by men." Our spirits can only be purified while in the body (while on earth) but after death anything unpurified (unclean) cannot enter Heaven Gates. Blessed are the pure in heart, for they shall see God [Matthew 5:8]. No one in his right mind can risk or even bare to put anything rotten into his body nor put the rotten thing closer to the those which are not rotten. Sin makes the heart unclean but you can ask God to forgive you, to save your soul, to cleanse you of your sin, to purify your heart by the blood of His Son, our Lord and Savior, Jesus Christ which He shed here on earth because Isaiah 53:5 says, "But He was wounded for our transgressions, He was bruised for our iniquities; the chastisement for our peace was upon Him, and by His stripes we are healed". Meditation in the Word of God is a visit to God because God is in His Word. We know God through His Word because the Word He speaks represent His heart's desires. Meditation is a thing of the heart, not a thing of the mind. Thinking is lower level while meditation is upper level. You think of your problems, your troubles but inorder to meditate, you must let go of your own will, your own desires, your own ways and let the Word you read prevail over thinking process by thinking of it more and more, until the Word gets into your blood and gains supremacy over you. That is when meditation comes - naturally without forcing yourself, turning the Word over and over in your heart. You can be having a conversation with someone while meditating in your heart - saying 'Thank you, Jesus...' over and over in your heart. But it is hard to meditate when you haven't let go of offence or past hurts because you need a free spirit to believe His Word and meditate on it. Your pain of the past, leave it for God, don't worry yourself, Jesus is alive, you can face tomorrow, He understands what you are passing through today. Begin to meditate on this prayer day and night (in all that you do), "Lord take more of me and give me more of you. Give me more of your holiness, faithfulness, obedience, self-control, purity, humility, love, goodness, kindness, joy, patience, forgiveness, wisdom, understanding, calmness, perseverance... Make me a channel of shinning light where there is darkness, a channel of pardon where there is injury, a channel of love where there is hatred, a channel of humility where there is pride..." The Word of God becomes a part of us by meditation, not by saying words but spirit prayer (prayer from the heart). Take note, God is Spirit and those who worship Him should do so in spirit and truth (genuinely by living the Word). When the Word becomes a part of you, it will by its very nature influence your conduct and behavior. You become a new creation, guided by the Holy Spirit and not just what you hear or see. Your bad habits, you will no longer have the urge to do them. You will think differently, dream differently, act differently and talk differently - if something does not qualify for meditation, it does not qualify for conversation. *THE BATTLE BETWEEN LIGHT AND DARKNESS (GOOD AND EVIL)* Heaven is God's throne and the dwelling place for God's angels and the saints. Hell was meant for the devil (satan) and the fallen angels. Those who torture the souls in hell are demons (unclean spirits). Man's spirit is a free moral agent. You can either yield yourself to the Spirit God by choosing to do good or to the evil spirit by choosing to do wrong because God has given us discretion. If one thinks he possesses only his own spirit, he is lying to himself and he is already in the dark. God is light while the devil is darkness. Light (Holy Spirit) and darkness (evil spirit) cannot stay together in a man's body. God is Love (Love is light) and where there is no love is hell, just as where there is no light there is absolute darkness. The one you yield yourself to, you will get his reward. The reward of righteousness to man's spirit is life (abundant life) and the reward of sin to man's spirit is death. Sin and satan are one and the same. Whatever sin can cause, satan also can cause. Sin is what gives the devil dominion or power over man's spirit. When God's Word becomes a part of you, sin power over you is broken because Jesus and His Word are one and Jesus much more powerful that satan, and you become the righteousness of God through Christ Jesus. Where Jesus is, you are and when He went (to the Father), you went. In the book of John 8:42-47, Jesus said to them, “If God were your Father, you would love Me, for I proceeded forth and came from God; nor have I come of Myself, but He sent Me. Why do you not understand My speech? Because you are not able to listen to My word. You are of your father the devil, and the desires of your father you want to do. He was a murderer from the beginning, and does not stand in the truth, because there is no truth in him. When he speaks a lie, he speaks from his own resources, for he is a liar and the father of it. Which of you convicts Me of sin? And if I tell the truth, why do you not believe Me? He who is of God hears God’s words; therefore you do not hear, because you are not of God.” My prayer is, "May God bless His Word in the midst of your heart that it may become a part of you by meditating on the Word." Glory and honour be to God our Father, our Lord and Savior Jesus Christ and our Helper the Holy Spirit. Watch and pray!... Thank you for your time and may God bless you as you share this message with others.
Brilliant video - thank you! Really good level of detail and commentary for tech-watching laypeople.
The real question is will these roadblocks hit us after we made AGI or before. I hope that we could hit singularity before moore's law ends in its broadest defination.
Definitely before because AGI is going to require another step change and a move away from the brute force methods we are using today. AGI depending on how you define it is also going to require advancements in other fields such as robotics, material science, neuroscience etc. There is still so much we don’t know and my belief is that we are just slightly above ground floor…
I feel like the next couple of years will be key in indicating our trajectory. e.g. will GPT 5 really be a big advance or quite incremental? If AI capabilities plateau, and Moore's Law type progress in hardware falters, then we could see a serious economic crash. Then we might never get a singularity.
Excellent nuggets
I would like to hear the comments of Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne, authors of "THE FUTURE OF EMPLOYMENT: HOW
SUSCEPTIBLE ARE JOBS TO COMPUTERISATION?"
Sounds like there's an opening for more, smarter programmers - to write all these software optimisation codes, and to define new types of optimized interfaces & protocols...
Thank you, great stuff. I hope you guys make these q&a videos much more often. A kind suggestion: i think the audio recording could be improved a little.
can chips be slown down so much that their power consumption and heat becomes so modest that they can be stacked? does the heat drop faster than the speed drops and is there a floor voltage where the transistors no longer play ball.
Good question
Sounds a bit like the end of the philosophy of "build more roads and it will solve all our transportation problems" 🤔
This guy is is the green wire, or brown with three knots.
I do not see how this video is relevant if you're not also mentioning low power solutions available with photonics. And I do not mean quantum photonics. I mean optical computing. It's very low power. Or is it still too soon to tell?
Moores Law is slowing down in hardware, but I believe we are at the very beginning of a Moore's Law applied to Software.. it is a convergence of the collaborative DevOps tools that we have refined over the last few years, the standards and openness of the use of API's to mash up capabilities, the ubiquitous interconnectedness of all the systems (things aren't created in a vacuum any more and when they are created they are immediately available and connected to others) .. and finally the ability for AI to assist in creating services on top of all of these connections.. not only can I create a new function/service/capability quickly, this new service can drive both physical and digital outcomes. Once I create these, they are available for others to build on top of them.. All of this couldn't have been done if we didn't have convergence of so many past trends.. always connected devices, fast, small, processing, collaborative software tools that allow for communities of practice (GIT), cloud practices, etc etc
Is Moore's law the same for all companies? Why do AMD computers have more cores than Intel computers? Intel cores use less electricity than AMD cores. Yet, AMD computers have a cheaper upfront cost. Should Moore's law be measured by what's the most expensive in the long term or short term? I guess it depends on how much the computer is used. If someone doesn't use their computer very often and doesn't do anything graphically intensive, then it makes sense to buy the cheapest computer. If someone uses their computer a lot, then it makes sense to use the computer that's is the most energy efficient.
Most people don't need more than one core. Intel makes a 12 watt core. That's the same amount of electricity used by a human brain. People who don't use photoshop or play high-end video games don't need multiple cores. It's sad what's sold in stores doesn't reflect what consumers actually want/need.
Why not send a GPU cluster to space and have it run using solar umbrella . The data can be sent to and from
wirelessly. Such computational space hubs and be a backbone of global computation.
What problem is that supposed to solve? Energy? We can just build the solar panels on earth with 1000x less money.
Economy shapes the future.. "limitations"
°∆ I believe we are meant to be like Jesus in our hearts and not in our flesh. But be careful of AI, for it knows only things of the flesh such as our fleshly desires (without fear of God) and cannot comprehend things of the Spirit such as true love and eternal joy that comes from obeying God's Word [Galatians 5:16-26]. Man is a spirit and has a soul but lives in a body which is flesh. When you go to bed it is the flesh that sleeps, but your spirit never sleeps and that is why you have dreams, unless you have died in peace physically. More so, true love that endures and last is a thing of the heart. When I say 'heart', I mean 'spirit'. But fake love, pretentious love, love with expectations, love for classic reasons, love for material reasons (love because of material needs) and love for selfish reasons outside God those are things of the flesh. In the beginning God said let us make man in our own image, according to our likeness. Take note, God is Spirit and God is Love. As Love He is the source of it. We also know that God is Omnipotent, for He creates out of nothing and He has no beginning and has no end. That means, our love is but a shadow of God's Love. True love looks around to see who is in need of your help, your smile, your possessions, your money, your strength, your quality time. Love forgives and forgets. Love wants for others what it wants for itself. However, true love works in conjunction with other spiritual forces such as patience and faith - in the finished work of our Lord and Savior, Jesus Christ, rather than in what man has done such as science, technology and organizations which won't last forever. To avoid sin and error which leads to the death of your body and your spirit-soul in hell fire (second death), you must make God's Word the standard for your life, not AI or your flesh. If not, God will let you face AI on your own (with your own strength) and it will cast the truth down to the ground, it will be the cause of so much destruction like never seen before, it will deceive many and take many captive in order to enslave them into worshipping it and abiding in lawlessness. We can only destroy ourselves but with God all things are possible. God knows us better because He is our Creater and He knows our beginning and our end. The prove texts can be found in the book of John 5:31-44, 2 Thessalonians 2:1-12, Daniel 2, Daniel 7-9, Revelation 13-15, Matthew 24-25 and Luke 21.
*HOW TO MAKE GOD'S WORD THE STANDARD FOR YOUR LIFE?*
You must read your Bible slowly, attentively and repeatedly, having this in mind that Christianity is not a religion but a Love relationship. It is measured by the love you have for God and the love you have for your neighbor. Matthew 5:13 says, "You are the salt of the earth; but if the salt loses its flavor, how shall it be seasoned? It is then good for nothing but to be thrown out and trampled underfoot by men." Our spirits can only be purified while in the body (while on earth) but after death anything unpurified (unclean) cannot enter Heaven Gates. Blessed are the pure in heart, for they shall see God [Matthew 5:8]. No one in his right mind can risk or even bare to put anything rotten into his body nor put the rotten thing closer to the those which are not rotten. Sin makes the heart unclean but you can ask God to forgive you, to save your soul, to cleanse you of your sin, to purify your heart by the blood of His Son, our Lord and Savior, Jesus Christ which He shed here on earth because Isaiah 53:5 says, "But He was wounded for our transgressions, He was bruised for our iniquities; the chastisement for our peace was upon Him, and by His stripes we are healed". Meditation in the Word of God is a visit to God because God is in His Word. We know God through His Word because the Word He speaks represent His heart's desires. Meditation is a thing of the heart, not a thing of the mind. Thinking is lower level while meditation is upper level. You think of your problems, your troubles but inorder to meditate, you must let go of your own will, your own desires, your own ways and let the Word you read prevail over thinking process by thinking of it more and more, until the Word gets into your blood and gains supremacy over you. That is when meditation comes - naturally without forcing yourself, turning the Word over and over in your heart. You can be having a conversation with someone while meditating in your heart - saying 'Thank you, Jesus...' over and over in your heart. But it is hard to meditate when you haven't let go of offence or past hurts because you need a free spirit to believe His Word and meditate on it. Your pain of the past, leave it for God, don't worry yourself, Jesus is alive, you can face tomorrow, He understands what you are passing through today. Begin to meditate on this prayer day and night (in all that you do), "Lord take more of me and give me more of you. Give me more of your holiness, faithfulness, obedience, self-control, purity, humility, love, goodness, kindness, joy, patience, forgiveness, wisdom, understanding, calmness, perseverance... Make me a channel of shinning light where there is darkness, a channel of pardon where there is injury, a channel of love where there is hatred, a channel of humility where there is pride..." The Word of God becomes a part of us by meditation, not by saying words but spirit prayer (prayer from the heart). Take note, God is Spirit and those who worship Him should do so in spirit and truth (genuinely by living the Word). When the Word becomes a part of you, it will by its very nature influence your conduct and behavior. You become a new creation, guided by the Holy Spirit and not just what you hear or see. Your bad habits, you will no longer have the urge to do them. You will think differently, dream differently, act differently and talk differently - if something does not qualify for meditation, it does not qualify for conversation.
*THE BATTLE BETWEEN LIGHT AND DARKNESS (GOOD AND EVIL)*
Heaven is God's throne and the dwelling place for God's angels and the saints. Hell was meant for the devil (satan) and the fallen angels. Those who torture the souls in hell are demons (unclean spirits). Man's spirit is a free moral agent. You can either yield yourself to the Spirit God by choosing to do good or to the evil spirit by choosing to do wrong because God has given us discretion. If one thinks he possesses only his own spirit, he is lying to himself and he is already in the dark. God is light while the devil is darkness. Light (Holy Spirit) and darkness (evil spirit) cannot stay together in a man's body. God is Love (Love is light) and where there is no love is hell, just as where there is no light there is absolute darkness. The one you yield yourself to, you will get his reward. The reward of righteousness to man's spirit is life (abundant life) and the reward of sin to man's spirit is death. Sin and satan are one and the same. Whatever sin can cause, satan also can cause. Sin is what gives the devil dominion or power over man's spirit. When God's Word becomes a part of you, sin power over you is broken because Jesus and His Word are one and Jesus much more powerful that satan, and you become the righteousness of God through Christ Jesus. Where Jesus is, you are and when He went (to the Father), you went. In the book of John 8:42-47, Jesus said to them, “If God were your Father, you would love Me, for I proceeded forth and came from God; nor have I come of Myself, but He sent Me. Why do you not understand My speech? Because you are not able to listen to My word. You are of your father the devil, and the desires of your father you want to do. He was a murderer from the beginning, and does not stand in the truth, because there is no truth in him. When he speaks a lie, he speaks from his own resources, for he is a liar and the father of it. Which of you convicts Me of sin? And if I tell the truth, why do you not believe Me? He who is of God hears God’s words; therefore you do not hear, because you are not of God.” My prayer is, "May God bless His Word in the midst of your heart that it may become a part of you by meditating on the Word." Glory and honour be to God our Father, our Lord and Savior Jesus Christ and our Helper the Holy Spirit. Watch and pray!... Thank you for your time and may God bless you as you share this message with others.