Crazy how the fleet is still so tight, after 5 days of race, with the first twenty boats less than 100 nautical miles apart! Jean Le Cam is an old fox, he could well be on the verge of commiting the hold-up of the year.
Outlaw took the eastern route all the way to Cape Town in last year’s Ocean Globe Race. It’s a high risk, high reward decision that played out well for us.
Saw the weather on tracker, then wondered what sailors get on their techie screens. Worried about needing to hug coast too closely (what factors they would also consider) yet wind flow around that high/hole going light & blue in near future…From windy sailing safe to best route! What decisions! Why we like your updates and immersed in VG news from official to skippers. Thank you, “armchair sailor”.
@@Sail-WorldIt does look like he is heading into a wind hole. In an interview today he said that one 'has to dare' which implies he knows it is a bit of a gamble. Perhaps, like Coman, he is counting on using a big spi to get across. He is surely too far out to be thinking of exploiting any coastal breezes. But, you never know. I would love to see inside LeCam's mind!
Matt Sheahan is always very good, plus Andi Robertson on the official Vendee Globe live updates each day. Mozzy is having a well-earned rest after the AC! The skipper's channels are also very good indeed. I'm compiling a list of all of these for www.sail-world.com which I will link in from our Vendee Globe section.
I like JLC + CC route. The pack are currently sitting on the backside of a low pressure and the model shows this system is going to track slowly east then move south which is opposite to how I expect pressure systems to travel. If the model is wrong, and the system tracks north the wind hole will grow fast. Heading south to pick up the trades is a safe bet.
they need to go west anyways to be on the west side of the south Atlantic high. if they follow the coast of africa you both have higher odds of getting stuck for a long time in the doldrums and you have to sail upwind in less wind on the east side of the high, instead of downwind with more wind on the west side. there's a reason the leaders of basically every round the world race for decades go to the west of the south Atlantic high
When sailing we used to say if you do something different and you pull it off, you're a bloody hero, if you finish losing badly then you are a bloody fool.
Nice to see you guys come to the same conclusion that I commented on your previous video. I think, the weather predictions on the official VG tracker are not completely accurate. I have an app that updates predictions from multiple different weather models on an hourly basis and based on that I really feel that Jean Le Cam will upset the rest of the fleet. I am right now concerned whether Conrad will manage to sneak with Jean through the incomming no-wind zone.
Just to reiterate the forecasts, right now it seems that the no-wind zone will materialize by sunday morning. If Jean and Conrad do not make it to the current trade-wind-zone I think they will get stuck for a couple of days. I am a bit concerned that Jeans current route is taking him too much to the west but maybe he will jibe soon. Conrad made great progress since the previous update. I'm really rooting for them both to be at the lead when they enter the doldrums. I think they will have a very favourable breeze down south-west if they manage to avoid the no-wind zone.
the EV play is what the bulk of the fleet are doing, 100%. if you were to run the same race 10 or 100 times it would be favoured for sure, because the risk of not westing is you get stuck in an entirely dead zone for days on end. not 5 knots, literally 0 knots off the west coast of africa in the doldrums. they need to west anyways to be on the correct side of the south atlantic high. theres a reason the rest of the fleet isnt going that direction even though they would've had better odds of making it through, given already being further ahead and being in faster foilers, and that's that the risk of destroying your race being stuck in a dead zone for days isn't worth the maximum potential upside of a slight lead
While it is possible to travel up the African coast to the Cape of Good Hope, you'd usually encounter headwinds the entire way, where in the central and western side of the South Atlantic you'd be able to reach at high speed, then hook into the weather the systems which propel you to the Indian ocean.
It's a good point, but very tricky to do at the moment as they're so tightly packed. Creating a leaderboard when the next waypoint is thousands of miles away can be very misleading.
If you scroll a bit further forward on the wind predictions you can see an answer to that question. However, forecasts do change so it's going to be very interesting to see how it plays out.
the logic is pretty simple. along the west coast of africa where jean is headed is an area called the doldrums, which frequently has dead zones of 0 wind lasting days and is notoriously hard to forecast. if you get stuck in one it ruins your entire race. and according to historical weather data the dead zones appear more often and last longer the further east towards africa you go. secondly, they need to go west anyways because of the south atlantic high pressure zone. going west allows your leg from the equator to the southern ocean to be sailed downwind in stronger winds at the cost of going further, vs going on the east side of the high is sorter but upwind in lighter wind. the west side basically always pays off looking at past races.
@@mlj9931 The forecast has already changed and what was wind going down the African coast over the next 48 hours has disappeared and the wind is filling in from the west. Ryden Kaye is right.
Not brilliant, just logical. It was crystal clear all this time that this was the sensible thing to do. They all good stuck in group-think. This is not a round-the-boeys race
The foilers at the front have less to gain by breaking cover in a high risk move this early on. Non foilers at the back have more to gain and less to lose.
King Jean runs his own race, and being in a non foiler, no point in following the pack. Legend.
epic
Crazy how the fleet is still so tight, after 5 days of race, with the first twenty boats less than 100 nautical miles apart! Jean Le Cam is an old fox, he could well be on the verge of commiting the hold-up of the year.
yeah great sailer and I wish him to win this!!!
All hail to The King....👍
Outlaw took the eastern route all the way to Cape Town in last year’s Ocean Globe Race. It’s a high risk, high reward decision that played out well for us.
Yes We Cam!
Love it! Can’t wait to see Jean Le Cam take the lead!
Nice reports here, I like the short size, focus on main topics. Thank you. Keep going!
Thank you!
Saw the weather on tracker, then wondered what sailors get on their techie screens. Worried about needing to hug coast too closely (what factors they would also consider) yet wind flow around that high/hole going light & blue in near future…From windy sailing safe to best route! What decisions! Why we like your updates and immersed in VG news from official to skippers. Thank you, “armchair sailor”.
Le Cam! The Man!
Great analysis, as usual.
Let's see how it plays out!
@@Sail-WorldIt does look like he is heading into a wind hole.
In an interview today he said that one 'has to dare' which implies he knows it is a bit of a gamble.
Perhaps, like Coman, he is counting on using a big spi to get across.
He is surely too far out to be thinking of exploiting any coastal breezes. But, you never know.
I would love to see inside LeCam's mind!
Clac Clac Clac...Master of VG... hopefully the (only-one´s) choice...!
👑 le roi Jean 😊
He is going to sneak ahead!!!! And Conrad!!!
Clac Clac !!! Bon Vent JLC
Nice video , please keep the updates coming, I’m glued to my iPad day and night and am following every insight I can get !!
Do you have other coverage channels you recommend to follow besides planetsail and sea wolves/ team channels?
@@nicholaycalhoun1681skipper’s media links
Matt Sheahan is always very good, plus Andi Robertson on the official Vendee Globe live updates each day. Mozzy is having a well-earned rest after the AC! The skipper's channels are also very good indeed. I'm compiling a list of all of these for www.sail-world.com which I will link in from our Vendee Globe section.
Jean Le Cam has the most French Hair ever!
It will be warm when in the very south
Le roi Jean!
Love that photo of him with the crown!
yes we cam!
Yes, Jean is a sailing genius, even if this strategy may not garner him the lead. Apparently, Conrad seems to agree with him.
The " official " vg has not yet commented on local and colmans South flyer
I like JLC + CC route.
The pack are currently sitting on the backside of a low pressure and the model shows this system is going to track slowly east then move south which is opposite to how I expect pressure systems to travel. If the model is wrong, and the system tracks north the wind hole will grow fast.
Heading south to pick up the trades is a safe bet.
Always enjoy meteorology “Janet Huff” fan.
I always said it was crazy to go west... the wind points south through the corridor west of Cape Verde.... well see who has the clairvoyance 😅😂😅😂
Let's see what happens. There are some great sailors out there, so they could well be right and I could be wrong!
they need to go west anyways to be on the west side of the south Atlantic high. if they follow the coast of africa you both have higher odds of getting stuck for a long time in the doldrums and you have to sail upwind in less wind on the east side of the high, instead of downwind with more wind on the west side. there's a reason the leaders of basically every round the world race for decades go to the west of the south Atlantic high
@rydenkaye9735 look at the wind charts ..... further south is where the alizean winds are to get you to Brasil
@Sail-World yes its a gamble but look at the wind charts you and le cam are right
@@Sail-Worldjean le cam is allready in First and this year he deserves better luck than in his past Vendees 🎉
YESSS come on Jean
Can’t wait👌 Tom😊😊
When sailing we used to say if you do something different and you pull it off, you're a bloody hero, if you finish losing badly then you are a bloody fool.
Brilliant
Nice to see you guys come to the same conclusion that I commented on your previous video. I think, the weather predictions on the official VG tracker are not completely accurate. I have an app that updates predictions from multiple different weather models on an hourly basis and based on that I really feel that Jean Le Cam will upset the rest of the fleet. I am right now concerned whether Conrad will manage to sneak with Jean through the incomming no-wind zone.
Just to reiterate the forecasts, right now it seems that the no-wind zone will materialize by sunday morning. If Jean and Conrad do not make it to the current trade-wind-zone I think they will get stuck for a couple of days. I am a bit concerned that Jeans current route is taking him too much to the west but maybe he will jibe soon. Conrad made great progress since the previous update. I'm really rooting for them both to be at the lead when they enter the doldrums. I think they will have a very favourable breeze down south-west if they manage to avoid the no-wind zone.
I completely agree. I'd put it at 50/50 as to whether his move will pay off. The weather picture is too complex to know for sure.
Go la Cam.....bravo
Thanks.
the EV play is what the bulk of the fleet are doing, 100%. if you were to run the same race 10 or 100 times it would be favoured for sure, because the risk of not westing is you get stuck in an entirely dead zone for days on end. not 5 knots, literally 0 knots off the west coast of africa in the doldrums. they need to west anyways to be on the correct side of the south atlantic high. theres a reason the rest of the fleet isnt going that direction even though they would've had better odds of making it through, given already being further ahead and being in faster foilers, and that's that the risk of destroying your race being stuck in a dead zone for days isn't worth the maximum potential upside of a slight lead
6th VG not 5th for Jean
You are of course correct. This is his sixth Vendee Globe! My apologies.
Clack clack clack 😊
In 16 hours he runs out of wind.
I don't know why you put the line to go West later , he isn't going to the carribean , he will still req sw direction
While it is possible to travel up the African coast to the Cape of Good Hope, you'd usually encounter headwinds the entire way, where in the central and western side of the South Atlantic you'd be able to reach at high speed, then hook into the weather the systems which propel you to the Indian ocean.
No. They are both heading straight into a lull that will last several days, while the others will have better winds in 40ish hours.
Humm.. we'll see. JLC is such a good sailor..
Please please always probide us with a ranking up to …? 10th place or so…it s all about being first insnt it?
It's a good point, but very tricky to do at the moment as they're so tightly packed. Creating a leaderboard when the next waypoint is thousands of miles away can be very misleading.
I thought the same, couldn't understand why they all headed west.
It's going to be very interesting to watch!
If you scroll a bit further forward on the wind predictions you can see an answer to that question. However, forecasts do change so it's going to be very interesting to see how it plays out.
the logic is pretty simple. along the west coast of africa where jean is headed is an area called the doldrums, which frequently has dead zones of 0 wind lasting days and is notoriously hard to forecast. if you get stuck in one it ruins your entire race. and according to historical weather data the dead zones appear more often and last longer the further east towards africa you go. secondly, they need to go west anyways because of the south atlantic high pressure zone. going west allows your leg from the equator to the southern ocean to be sailed downwind in stronger winds at the cost of going further, vs going on the east side of the high is sorter but upwind in lighter wind. the west side basically always pays off looking at past races.
@@mlj9931 The forecast has already changed and what was wind going down the African coast over the next 48 hours has disappeared and the wind is filling in from the west. Ryden Kaye is right.
The fox
Not brilliant, just logical. It was crystal clear all this time that this was the sensible thing to do. They all good stuck in group-think. This is not a round-the-boeys race
The foilers at the front have less to gain by breaking cover in a high risk move this early on. Non foilers at the back have more to gain and less to lose.
Local = lecam I hate spell ch
Haha! 😂 “clac, clac, clac” Try spelling that 3 times!