Pettis had a very long reply to Posen's rebuttal on Oct 4, 2013 through Twitter. I just quote 2 paragraphs: "If the problem is mainly anti-private-sector policies implemented recently under the Xi administration, the solution is obvious: reverse those policies and China will return to the halcyon days of 5-6% growth or more. ... If, however, the problem is that China can no longer sustain such extraordinary high investment rates, then debt levels must rise unsustainably and the public sector expand until Beijing chooses, or is forced, to bring debt and public-sector investment under control." This is the point Pettis and Liu tried to make. Alexander Hamilton, the first treasury secretary of the USA, wanted a strong central government to encourage development of industry and economy to attain self-sufficiency. Sounds familiar? Many developing countries follow this model in their early going. The young countries need tariff to protect them, they need infrastructure... I believe this is what the strong governance in the early stages meant by Pettis and Liu. I believe their arguments have differences and similarities. IMO, they probably just talk past each others limited by the format of the discussion.
You did find the similarity. But you missed those fundamentals. Just in case, give you few only here - Leninism, Social Ownership, Globalization, Industrial Revolution reached 3rd Wave (heading towards 4th one) including Finance becoming a relative mature industry from traditional banking sector etc. etc. So retrospectively rose Alexander Hamilton's governing methodology might not be adequate. Anyway my view is similar like Mr. Shaw's leaning to Posen's. BTW, I read both "Fall Guy", "Inherited Trauma" and "Posen Replies"
@@lioicomestai3703 It is also surprising to me that Hamilton is credited with the development mode of developing country. But the key word here is "development mode", meaning that the young country needs to adjust later. In the early going, the priority is to survive in spite of everything else. Many authors (e.g. Pettis) have similar arguments - I am a economics newbie and do not dream this up. Google Bard or any other chat bot will give you an idea of what the mainstream thinks. Pettis has done a lot of work on China's economy and rebalancing. For many years he suggests to move from an investment-based strategy to consumption-based strategy through medicare, education and transferring money to the public, for example. It is not much different from one of Shiu's suggestions (and I guess for that matter possible Posen's). But it has the advantage of providing a better framework and perspective to look at China's economy. Perhaps you do not agree, but should not ignore his thesis.
I have to wonder who censored my reply. Is this you or RUclips? If I were not welcomed to comment in your channel, just say so and I will stop bugging you. If it were RUclips, I apologize for my previous statement. And if it were RUclips, please let me know the reason.
@@dimwit8706 Dude, I am replying you. That means you are fine. Just rewrite yours with simple style, less emotion based on message crossing and rational expression, you'd go through again. Trust me. I met few situation like yours. I learnt. RUclips set up criteria with AI like monitoring mechanism, I guess. And your very 1st writing about was pretty fact based. Very Good since it was able me to reply mine from different perspective without deny yours.
蕭生：對於姓名上有相同字時，在演說時無意中會噏錯人名，之後就成了慣性錯誤。片中改革開放者應是鄧小平。
抱歉，再度口誤，特此更正！
好心錄影時，蕭生執邊搵個人提佢
只怪蕭生過度仰慕習總，已達痴迷程度，朝思暮想，以致衝口而出就是習總聖名，而把其他稍有相近的名字唸錯。
😂已不只一次了
That’s not a problem!
需要多一位現場助理吧
我哋主席,親自指揮領導
但永遠不用負責任
他做的没毛病。
蕭生，你已數次將鄧小平講成習近平了。
更正留言已置頂了，謝謝提出指正！
感謝資訊🙏
🙏thanks for info and support you
谢谢分享。👍😁
謝謝蕭生分享👍🏼👍🏼👍🏼👍🏼👍🏼👍🏼
多謝蕭生分析分享🙏
多謝才子分享
多谢siu生分析
謝謝詳盡分析。
講得非常好
蕭生你係人老冇記性記錯！定係你根本唔想提「鄧小平」呢三個字！你唔止淨係呢條片！我睇過你上條片都係咁！你連環幾次將"鄧小平"講成"習近平"！！！
請留意置頂留言，已更正了！多謝留心聽講及提出的指正！
👍
問問有幾多朋已經將資產轉離香港就明白投資又怎會增張呢？
谢谢萧生分享😊😊
中國最大o既問題用責任全在x方就解決到所有問題
超級小粉紅上身！肯定是假的，絕對沒有可能～
多謝蕭生詳細報導分析。🙏🙏🙏🙏
皇上永遠英明，失敗皆因臣下執行不力。毛澤東如是，習近平亦如是。
繼續吸收中國人才資金企業，即係繼續接以前的接觸政策，風險極大。畢竟中國人才，資金和企業背後很難避免有中共的因素。
👍👍👍
如果中國沒有小粉紅，我非常同意你的說法
粉红狗多的是
錯不在己方，錯全在美方
蕭生:是鄧小平提出不論姓資、姓社！發展經濟是硬道理！吾是習近平！
你又再次口誤！
已更正了，謝謝提出！
at about 4th minute time stamp, it should be Deng XiaoPeng not Xi.....
肅生的節目每期必睇，👍想問吓，在你家買啲盆菜果個鍋可以用嗎？我家有幾個，用來煎饺子🥟很好用。可以留下一直用嗎？
蕭生應該係太愛佢嘅頭號 偶像
🫣所以成日噏錯佢個名！🤭😅
吸大六人才？？？ 放佢過去偷技術返中國
仲有-啲强國女人既強項系破壞人家庭，做人小三!!!
👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍
必定會有扺賴說, 是前任的錯, 若不是他本人採取相應有效措施, 現今情況必會更差更慘, 還會自許自己係救世者添呀.
14-15年內地股市6,000點跌到3,000點，人民投資股市身家大縮水！😢
🙋♀️🙋♀️
Thanks Siu
👍👏👌🙏
親自僕街，🎉
12:38 Liu Zong Yuan 個名同柳宗元一樣, 哈
山東帥範大學出身的, 即是共產黨信得過的人
你看她的"How the CCP Finances Its Global Ambitions" 就知她讚黨領導中國, 一帶一路
🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉
11:47 說是美國機遇, 可吸引中國人去美國投資, 這點不太成立,
那些在中國賺大錢的人都是官商勾結, 有人脉做事可通行無阻, 可壟斷一個行業而賺到大錢的,
佢地去美國完全做唔到
若說純科技人才, 中國的人才根本是靠不停抄外國的新發明, 然後, 只因中國阻止外國公司來中國,
所以在國內複制同一樣的產品, 以平價內銷或出口都賺大錢, 而且, 加上政府只採用國內公司制造的, 咁才能成功，
佢地呢種人在美國, 想話抄另一公司的野, 即刻比對方告啦,
越嚟越替老燒擔心，成日將小平講成近平⋯⋯
哈哈哈哈哈，我都有留意到。而且佢仲將“習近平上台以前”講成“習近平上台以來”
東西德不需發一槍,東德人民全面傾倒向西德自由資本主義制度社會,東德人民包括軍人都拋棄專制獨裁的反人性共產主義社會,人民國家利益必然大過專制組織。這是德國人民走向幸福的選擇😂😂😂
千萬道理都冇用，總結一下，建全法制，真正用法理管治
因為政治改變跟不上經濟
目前國際主流絕大部分呢啲所謂經濟學者做嘅研究及發表嘅觀點文章，都忽視咗一樣嘢（或者係佢地根本唔識，唔知）：唔知道中共嘅黨史、軍史、政治史，究竟共產嘅“初心”係乜嘢。即係，呢班學者都唔去睇清楚《資本論》、《共產黨宣言》就係嘅目的係咩嘢。
又係搞錯咗鄧小平習近平
肖生真的要下苦功去分辨鄧及習, 否則很多聽不明他說甚麼。
責任不在我方，一定全在美方
#諉過於人我最叻
咦，蕭生隻維尼熊前面，竟然有個遊戲機😄
CCP的經濟學理念信奉馬克思主義，但係其實馬克思主義的經濟學邏輯一堆謬論，距地用資本論的思維去經營國企唔死至奇。我一直好想等蕭生出一條片批判馬克思主義的經濟學邏輯。
每每講到係鄧小平時期你都講錯係習近平，有無可能更正呢？
睇得老蕭啲片耐都識腦內自我調節
🤭😅🙏🏻@@賴宝伊
已更正了，在置頂欄。多謝指正！
香港市民投資港股被割到屍骸遍地！所以市民不敢再投資港股😢
拆雷歸拆雷，想修正邊行咩都好，做之前都冇睇清楚自己錢包啲錢邊度黎，就大力打爆自己春袋先，為求國際社會買幾個like而大灑幣，點都係翠翠責任啦。每次出手都莽撞，每個需要精細規畫既計畫又爛尾，先有雄安，現有海南島放長眼慢慢睇。
說得好！
蕭生，1980年代是鄧小平時代，不是習近平掌權。
是的，已置頂更正，謝謝。
得罪个客味唔落單唔簡單道理
其實洗乜辯論,乜水成日講親自策劃,親自部署,又話自己下大棋,你吾好講吾關你事?
出幾多首富都冇用，一個孫大午嘅悲慘下場，就叫人心寒！
蕭老先生，很多時候心裏想说鄧小平，但口講出習近平？
請閱置頂留言，已更正了，謝謝提出指正！
中共官员常常希望坏事会自我痊愈 而他们只会用拖字訣 希望时間解决一切問題😂
Pettis had a very long reply to Posen's rebuttal on Oct 4, 2013 through Twitter. I just quote 2 paragraphs: "If the problem is mainly anti-private-sector policies implemented recently under the Xi administration, the solution is obvious: reverse those policies and China will return to the halcyon days of 5-6% growth or more. ... If, however, the problem is that China can no longer sustain such extraordinary high investment rates, then debt levels must rise unsustainably and the public sector expand until Beijing chooses, or is forced, to bring debt and public-sector investment under control." This is the point Pettis and Liu tried to make.
Alexander Hamilton, the first treasury secretary of the USA, wanted a strong central government to encourage development of industry and economy to attain self-sufficiency. Sounds familiar? Many developing countries follow this model in their early going. The young countries need tariff to protect them, they need infrastructure... I believe this is what the strong governance in the early stages meant by Pettis and Liu.
I believe their arguments have differences and similarities. IMO, they probably just talk past each others limited by the format of the discussion.
You did find the similarity. But you missed those fundamentals. Just in case, give you few only here - Leninism, Social Ownership, Globalization, Industrial Revolution reached 3rd Wave (heading towards 4th one) including Finance becoming a relative mature industry from traditional banking sector etc. etc. So retrospectively rose Alexander Hamilton's governing methodology might not be adequate.
Anyway my view is similar like Mr. Shaw's leaning to Posen's.
BTW, I read both "Fall Guy", "Inherited Trauma" and "Posen Replies"
@@lioicomestai3703 It is also surprising to me that Hamilton is credited with the development mode of developing country. But the key word here is "development mode", meaning that the young country needs to adjust later. In the early going, the priority is to survive in spite of everything else. Many authors (e.g. Pettis) have similar arguments - I am a economics newbie and do not dream this up. Google Bard or any other chat bot will give you an idea of what the mainstream thinks.
Pettis has done a lot of work on China's economy and rebalancing. For many years he suggests to move from an investment-based strategy to consumption-based strategy through medicare, education and transferring money to the public, for example. It is not much different from one of Shiu's suggestions (and I guess for that matter possible Posen's). But it has the advantage of providing a better framework and perspective to look at China's economy. Perhaps you do not agree, but should not ignore his thesis.
I have to wonder who censored my reply. Is this you or RUclips? If I were not welcomed to comment in your channel, just say so and I will stop bugging you. If it were RUclips, I apologize for my previous statement. And if it were RUclips, please let me know the reason.
@@dimwit8706 Dude, I am replying you. That means you are fine. Just rewrite yours with simple style, less emotion based on message crossing and rational expression, you'd go through again. Trust me. I met few situation like yours. I learnt.
RUclips set up criteria with AI like monitoring mechanism, I guess.
And your very 1st writing about was pretty fact based. Very Good since it was able me to reply mine from different perspective without deny yours.
@@lioicomestai3703 thanx for your reply.
我意見與蕭生相同，支持波森。此舉吸收人才對美國經濟有好處。但短期內中共搞毋掂個經濟，人民離心，而美國對中國人民持有開放態度會更加增大民主人士信心，加大宣傳力度，抑制專制政權生存空間。弊端是美國可能洩漏風險加大，但我認為可以通過有效管制去防止，相當於前期投資了。因此總體利大於弊。
八十年代初很多人走上大陸買祈福、碧桂園等，因為太便宜，作渡假也好。港人住慣小屋，很多人願望就是有一小房前後花園。但沒幾多人是望炒升值，觀念上大陸太多地，不似香港地少人多。
而大陸開始學香港炒房賣地時，已經走錯路。尤其賣地權力下放至地方政府，而未有完善監管及貪污，高槓桿建房地產，令過去二十多年產生極多超級富豪，這是泡沬，一定會爆。
是真的嗎？習主席親自領導，還会錯嗎？
富不過三代😅
佢哋講嘅嘢其實係無分別，都係指係習近平嘅問題。
不過我亦認為識玩梗係壓制中國，趁你病攞你命，直到你谷底先留返一扇門展開雙臂歡迎你。
責任完全在美方
去深圳旅行，看到深圳經濟比香港好很多
长期经济信号混乱导致大面积无效的资源投入
大政府，小市場
蕭生，我現在真的相信你是習近平的粉絲了，你多次將鄧小平的名字讀作習近平。這不是第一次了，沒有人(包括你的同事)告訴你嗎？
強烈支持習親自落手落腳，大搞經濟
中國經濟是口號式經濟；運動式經濟。就這樣簡單。
地産畸形發展官商勾結貪腐做成惡果。
一帶一路派光 生金蛋鵝生劏
援俄滅烏撒謊 清0外資跑光
絕對係當今加速政綱
一針見血。
魔鬼只可以俾天收，不過係遲早，只是先再害多少！
🥱🥱
中國最不幸，係未有現代智人智力嘅時候，接觸到馬列思想病毒.................................真係時也命也
而家粉紅同弱智藍當道，韭菜會死得好慘
功成不必在我😂
世界第一貿易經濟體，最大貿易順差經濟體都叫慘，其他叫麼？
@@acmeep525 有人有錢，有窮是一個普世的現象，同經濟慘有麼關系？
終於露出真面目想推中國人去佔美科技及影響美國擺向中國。
吸引鬼國人才？忘恩負義既骨髓中未識驚？班人係果邊企得穩，馬上踢走本地人，建國又唱好國家都似，見過鬼都未知驚
鄧小平習近平傻傻分唔清😂😂
中国隻有間諜。
美國惜才, 但十個有九個有D成就便變節spy, 第十個諗緊, 點重用你這群嘢吖？養極都唔熟
中國經濟成功倒退，大好現象，農業社會又返嚟囉，青山綠水，黃上成功。起來、、、前進。唱，最多餓死
廢柴講嘢l
睇睇豬頭身邊嘎軍師，就知道條友係乜料。 蠢人一人大權在握， 必然的結果。
不管姓资姓社的不是老邓吗？
謝謝，已更正了！
维尼王曰： 关朕碌7事
👍👍
👍