epic estimation experiment

Experiment: epic/initiative estimation
Problem: We need to be able to estimate large initiatives quickly and accurately even when there are a lot of unknowns
Hypothesis: We can use relative estimation to get a very fast yet accurate initial estimate, then refine that estimate incrementally using both roll up estimation and early actuals.
Time Frame: 9 months, ask pivot or persevere every three
Typical Outcomes: decrease time and cost of level 1 estimates by up to 98%, maintain accuracy of level 1 estimates
Skill Growth Criteria: Every epic in the portfolio's three year horizon have estimates in epic points. Features have estimates in feature points. Stories have estimates in story points. You have calculated and updated your magic ratio at least once. You have actuals for multiple features and at least one epic.
Shirt Today: robert graham the lofton - alfred hitcchock