At what point will we need a compendium describing the compendiums? In a world where the content must flow, this channel is king and I for one, thank you for all your effort Mr. Futurism Amalgamator.
Sometimes I put episodes on to fall asleep, but I also throw them on while in the car driving for work. That probably is doing something unhealthy to my brain and sleep patterns, but when the videos are this good, what choice do I have?
Thanks for this video. I think that we are forgetting the historical period this question was asked in. When Fermi made the statement in 1950, it was believed that the universe could be infinitely old. The theory of the Big Bang only became the leading theory in the 1960s. At the time of asking a major of people that the universe could be infinitely old. In an infinitely old universe, we should have been visited. In a universe that has a finite age, and that things need time to happen. We could simply be the first in our part of the universe or one of the first, and that needs to happen is for more time to pass. I don't believe it is a paradox for us in a universe with a finite age.
Pray we are alone in the universe... because if there's more advanced space aliens then out of self-preservation the space aliens would limit and control the expansion of humans in the universe due to humans have a long ongoing history of wars, lying, cheating, stealing and violence. And there's many scenarios much worse.
"the Universe is infinite but not every planet is inhabited, therefore there is a finite number of planets. Any number divided by infinity is effectively zero, therefore anyone you meet is a figment of your imagination" HHGTTG
@@ericpode6095 If I have an infinite 'number' of apples and 1 out of every 10 apples is green, not red. How many green apples do you think there are ..... well infinity also. The problem with infinity is its is not a really a number, so you can't do normal maths with it.
@@SK-ow4vw it's from "The Hitchhiker's Guide To The Galaxy". Just thought it was appropriate as Hitchhiker's is a favourite of Isaac. May not be an exact quote, it's been a while since I read/listen/watched it! 😉
Oh my goodness … this will be sending me off to sleep for a couple of weeks. I’ve gotten pretty good at rewinding to where I faded away. I also play you at reduced speed, as your pace of speech is so dense (not a complaint, it’s just how your brain works) 🙏
Isaac brother thanks for allowing me to have seen you since the very beginning 🙌 I’ve been waiting for this again since it’s one of my favorite topics. It really helps me when speaking to other to convey just how special life is.
This is perfect, I've been using a lot of SFIA videos to set some constraints on a soft-scifi setting and I'll need to decide how many aliens there are and how detectable they are eventually.
We need a Fermi Paradox "Drink and Snack Hypothesis". As civilizations become more sophisticated, they spend more and more of their thought process to planing their next snack. No time to devote to searching for stupid aliens.
@@General12th The next logical step would be searching the stars for cosmological snacks and beverages. So that leads us right back to square one... where are all the hungry aliens? 👽
See now you went and ruined an entire core of the channel by presenting the clear answer and ending the paradox! Now what? Back to discussing o’neal cylinders?
I'm cooking up my quantum four-cheese alfredo for this one. Help yourself to the pantry but stay away from the Planck Hot Sauce. It packs the power of a black hole merger on your tongue.
I hope this isnt weird to say but i like the way you talk. My nephew sounds like you. hes 14 and is very self conscious about his speech. More than he even lets on i think. Hes such a bright kid and i hate that hes so critical about himself. I cant wait to visit him and show him your channel. Or at least have your channel playing with him able to hear it so he doesnt think im being lame
I love how you are so systematic and how you successfully covered the whole subject. Thanks a lot! Would you propose your 5 "best" reasons for the fermi paradox? The ones you think are the most plausble?
My guess is that the Fermi paradox is overstated and it's way too early in the game to be able to say. But also that technological life is rare and widely scattered. Basing that off of how long it took Earth to produce radio telescopes and stuff. But I still listen to videos like this, because it's interesting and boosts my imagination. I know Isaac has spent a lot of time thinking about and talking about extra-terrestrial life, so has a lot of info to relay.
I saw somewhere that phosphorus is a finite resource and that we might run out in a couple hundred years. It's essential for a lot of biological functions like DNA and photosynthesis. It's also a key component of agriculture. So maybe every civilization eventually runs out of phosphorous and collapses. Could be a pretty daunting filter if all intelligent life needs phosphorus to survive.
No it isn't. If aliens exist they should be already here, not just visiting but already used Earth material to build a Dyson sphere. All the "solutions" to the Fermi paradox are pure cope tho. There are only two possibilities: 1. Life is almost impossible to randomly appear randomly and we are the only case in Observable universe 2. It's a simulation and there is nothing outside on purpose, cause it's a simulation of this planet. It's basically the same as God only created life on Earth tho
@@friendlyone2706it effectively does disappear to us when it's been combined with something we can't extract it back from to its elemental form. Also it is mined when found in large quantities, if it's the lost in wastewater we can't get it back without impossible processes, having phosphorus dilute in the water is not the same as a mineable source.
Three hours of fantastic content on this topic is plenty of food for thought... No snack or drink required. Appreciate the time and effort it took to produce this scrumptious episode!
Woah, I can't believe I didn't notice your speech had improved until you mentioned it. It really is a huge difference! Great video, I really enjoyed it.
We need an “Isaac Arthur hypothesis”, as civilizations become more sophiticated, they spend more and more of their thought process thinking about the fermi paradox. In the end they will produce and watch such dense video’s there will absolutely no time left to search for silly aliens.
Good call, man. It starts with gaining a tolerance, then eating less (thats really when it starts to turn). Making mistakes, having accidents, mood stuff... I'm proud of you. Looking at it, and seeing it getting in the way. Stopping now is really smart. You mentioned self medicating and depression, I was too. You should really book an appointment with a shrink (psychologist). I did, I'm way better now. Hang in there, brother. ✊️
Fantastic, thank you for this. For myself, show me any evidence at all that there is any kind of life anywhere outside this planet that can be shown not to have originated here and I'll rethink: "We see nothing because there is nothing - life is that rare and we only struggle with the notion because we are here to notice."
Wow. Thanks for the ultimate vid on this. I always feel that the view of alien motives is so suspect and generally based on attitudes born in a distinct human historical epoch of scarce resource. None of that makes sense to me when civilizations are no longer resource-constrained.
Thank you so much Isaac- really enjoying this. I appreciate your diligence, thorough research and beautiful voice! Looking forward to checking out more of your channel for sure
I bet you know perfectly well USA Navy has practically proven Fermi Paradox is BS Yet you people are here orgasmic about one of the Holy Trinity of Scientism Terraplanism at its highest
Whenever I think about the Fermi Paradox I remember the old saw about how the first message we receive will be "For God's sake, shut up or they're going to hear you!".
I've been designing planetariums for a bit over a decade and I'm studying astrophysics finally. I love this episode. I'll just add, it's excessively hard to detect signs of life very far from our solar system. Very few forms of electromagnetic radiation can be detected from very far in the detail required to see signs of life, especially beyond 100 light years.
The most compelling solution to me is The Universe is Too Young It predicts exactly what we see, in that it actually solves the "paradox" if true And it actually makes sense and seems likely. All things considered, the universe is not very old at all, we only consider it to be old on first glance because humanity is quite young, and humans only live about a century So it attacks the firmi paradox directly by challenging the "old" part of the universe in the question
Just discovered this channel. Thank you RUclips algorithm! Mr. Arthur is a deep thinker. Love how well thought out his content is. And he covers the most interesting topics!
Ok I solved it after re thinking a bunch of my previous ideas and consolidating them. Overcoming the urge to expand without check is THE GREAT FILTER. It happens to life at all stages from the great oxygenation event to today with our carbon emissions. This filter is constantly effect up until the galactic stage. I believe this is the most evidence based answer to the fermi paradox. It answers every question and will happen every time without fail in any limited resource as all resources must necessarily be. Phew I been thinking that one out a while.
@@freehat2722 yes all those are examples of life failing to over come the urge to expand without check. That is what the term “filter” means. That some life does keep that in check and some life does not. An example of life succeeding would be the adaption to multicellular life during the great oxygenation event. Look at invasive species often times destroy their own habit or food source and die out. Every species every group every organism goes through this because of the shape of reality and entropy. Anytime there is a resource limit this filter is in place. It is pretty clearly the answer to the paradox.
Regarding the concept of filters, I would like to point out that filters can often be worse than just multiplying their independent probabilities. They could oppose each other forming only a narrow pass region as inductance and capacitance do with frequency in an electic circuit.
The SCP universe had a really interesting solution to the fermi paradox. It turned out in the SCP universe that alien civilizations were super common. Unfortunately, every civilization discovered what looked to be an incredible technology that would provide unlimited energy and unlock the secrets of the universe. As soon as they unlocked this tech, however, it immediately caused a k class civilization ending scenario. Somehow the discovery shattered the laws of physics and reality in the solar system as those civilizations knew them. Reality, thought, experience, even concepts and abstractions started deteriorating leading to terrible deaths. Planets were transformed and altered in unexpected ways. Individual's consciousnesses were slowly etched away until nothingness. One survivor managed to transmit a log entry to nearby civilizations explaining what was happening and the incomprehensible nature of it. Really a fascinating story. Some inevitable poison pill technology would be a really good explanation. Something like a technology that allows you to tap into quantum fields and harvest energy, but which would cause a localized disruption. Like maybe they tap into the electromagnetic field somehow to harvest energy, which causes a localized transition or change in the larger EM field which alters the laws of chemistry thereby immediately killing every lifeform on the planet. It would be very effective at killing off life wherever it got too advanced but essentially leaving no trace unless you visited the planets themselves.
Isaac, I have also played Acquire many times. In fact, the greatest personal achievement of my life as a tabletop gamer is the time I won a game against the defending world champion.
@@isaacarthurSFIA Thanks! Although I haven't been able to replicate that event since; but hoping to someday do something that has similar bragging rights. But I would say that you did even better by meeting your future wife, something I haven't been able to achieve yet...
Ok, Ok, I’m calling you out on that one, How would one steal an entire nebula? I.e. “Grand Theft Nebula” “In less then 60 -120 seconds, for a short if possible”
This is A master piece brother! I remember your original fermi paradox compendium was broke up in like smaller parts. Then you had, A few longer ones, like the one with the ET mouse as the thumbnail.😂 This is great tho! The new visuals are cool, I think I recognize a few oldies too of the visuals?!
A loooooong time ago you really helped my understand the concept of the fermi Paradox and changed my mind on the certainty that there would be smart galactic spanning alien civs..
Minor mental typo: in "compound filters", you said that (1/2)^10 is just under 1/1000000. It's actually 1/1024 (you probably meant (1/2)^20, which is just under 1/1000000.
so while I enjoy a drink and snack to this vid, it occurred to me, that anyone commenting before 3 hours after the vid went up, didn't watch the vid before commenting, like myself. unless they remembered to watch it on nebula before today anyway. maybe there is a name for that time paradox, of knowing what to comment before knowing the details of what is in a vid, lol.
And those comments made well before anyone could have finished the video will almost surely be the most upvoted, and the only comments most people will see coming to this video in the future.
@@UpliftedCapybara yeah, with many of the more thought out comments being hours or days later. out of the top voted range from the appreciated "thanks" or short "great vid" comments to lesser appealing ones that make assumptions or are just arguing over being 'first'. some creators have better communities than others, so it's not exactly universal, just an observation of RUclips overall.
The Grabby Aliens hypothesis makes heavy use of, and can be seen as the marriage of, the Copernican Principle and the Anthropic Principle. I personally believe that lends it a lot of credibility.
Hey Isaac! Haven't been watching your channel for quite a while, yet the almighty ALGORITHM decided I should watch this. Firstly, DUDE, as a non-native speaker with a pronounced speech impediment on the R sound, I must say that you lost your impediment during the "Outward Bound" series... And its been ages since these series :)) If you are going to make an announcement in an episode about that impediment, at least speak as you still have it, and then in the end of the episode say "JK, RASCALLY RABBITS" You talking on the "Are we alone?" subject is how I discovered SFIA about 10 years ago and is my absolute favorite within your channel. I'm writing this comment as I noticed that you read a paragraph of your script and then, on average, there are at least 2-3 references to old episodes. This is crazy! Love it! :D Good id ea to have your wife make them. Suggestion, make a colab with JMG where you refer old episodes of his and he does the same for yours. Cheers!
'Be sure to grab a snack and my wife will alternate to make it less monotonous' *Looks at the lenght* 3 hours?! What a treat, will have to listen to it tonight and prolly sit and properly watch it on the weekend. Not really interested in the debating and exploring the whole fermi paradox, as it seems lazy to just say "aliens don't exist" despite how vast the universe is. But i admit at least the solutions are nice because the discuss the possibilities for all the how/where/why/when questions that could arise if other intelligent lifeforms inhabit our galaxy yet we haven't met them personally or don't have them registered in history.
no matter how many solutions I encounter, none of them seem to really hold up or be as satisfying as the rare earth cluster of solutions... the only other group that does potentially work, although still has some problems due to issues surrounding complexity and information density, is the simulation hypothesis cluster, including Boltzmann brain type arguments. That said, I I still find that there are some pretty big issues with the simulation hypothesis cluster... At least ay version that was directed from an "upper level" as it would require a that this upper level has physics that are different than our own in order to be able to produce the universe we observe with all its complexity and scale, not to mention the ethical implications... However, I will concede that the being running the simulation could be a psychopath, but I have some issue with the idea that a civilization could get to this level of sophistication while still having rampant problems with mental health and non-cooperative behaviour, but I guess its not outside of the realm of plausibility. But speaking from the perspective of not just plausible, but actually likely, as far as I can tell, the rare earth cluster of hypothesis just seems so likely, it's almost a certainty... especially when you start adding up the individual probabilities for each condition that needs to be just right in order to achieve advanced civilization. everything from the position in the galaxy, the presence of our moon, long term stability, right down to having an atmosphere with roughly 20% oxygen to allow for the smelting of metal ore without catching everything else around on fire like what happened in the carboniferous! If even one of these conditions are not met, the chances of a technological civilization developing drop off exponentially, or are simply rendered impossible. I'm reasonably certain that if we were to crunch all the factors, the probability of an interstellar civilization arising in any given galaxy might be less than1 every 5-10 billion years or so or even longer, if at all. You want evidence for this? How many planets outside of our own Solar System have we discovered so far? Over 5000! Despite many of them being rocky planets roughly the same size as Earth, not one could realistically be expected to have given rise to a civilization. They're either too hot, too cold, tidally locked, or likely blasted by solar flares. And when you consider that if planets capable of giving rise to civilization are even remotely common, it is statistically unlikely that among our first sample of 5000-most sharing our nice, quiet corner of the galaxy-we wouldn't find at least one that fits the bill. The odds are not looking good.
Dear Issiac, Ive been a long time fan for many years. And I just want to say that Ive very greatful for you and your content, you have a way to draw me into your videos like o other creator on youtube. But now for the point of this comment: a question. Given the past US governments reveal of alien life. What is your thoughts on this? Do you believe what they say? Are you excited about it? Or are you being cautious to give too much credit to them in this field? Again thank you for your content and keep up the amazing work, you inspire many to open mindedness and to the science and wonders of our universe. 🙏
My favorite solution is that while life is common, civilizations are not. And among them industrial civilizations are almost statistical error. Just think about how unique human body is. We are the only animal that can work in the forge. Others would overheat and expire. We are neither herbivore nor carnivore. Intelligent obligatory carnivores are highly unlikely to invent farming and grain houses: they would either be hunters or herders. True herbivores don't need to invent farming techniques because they can it what is already there. Without grainhouses and farming there would be no math and no writing. Our bodies are small and vulnerable compared to many predators. Intelligent elephants, bears or tigers would have no need to invent weapons and armour. We are uniquely vulnerable to seasonal cimate change: everybody else have in-body defense mechanism from winter but we had to harness fire and invent building huts. And speaking of winter, our planet have very inhospitable climate, yet seasons repeat in quite precise cycle. That forced our ancestors to invent technology. As for industrial capabilities, even despite humans being so uniquely suited to technology, Industrial Revolution happened only ONCE, despite several civilizations in human history reached necessary technology level and stayed on it for very long time. It took unique circumstances to align for industry to pop into existence.
One solution to the dyson swarm paradox is that if you combine it with the dark forest hypothesis, then aliens might keep swarms so small as to be almost impossible to detect form any meaningful distance. Thus you can have a civilization that controls some percentage of the galaxy, that is a type two civilization by having enough small swarms. But we couldn’t detect them yet.
I have a blink of time contributer theory The length of time it takes for a species to evolve technologically on the cosmic timespan is so fast that by the time anything else evolves theyve run their course and moved to something we cant see for reasons we havent yet figured out. Obviously its not a catch all but it could be a major contributor
The beauty of existence is such and so all-encompasing that the grasping of a mere infinitesimal part of the whole of the in all senses infinity of the universe conveys religiosity
How about the "Everything Breaks" hypothesis? This could be included in the "Space is Hard" hypothesis. Any trip to another star is going to take a very long time. Even though we can bring a lot of things with us such as 3D printers and water recyclers, eventually something important is going to break that we cannot repair or replace. If you are two light years away from Alpha Centauri, you aren't going to make it. The people who designed and live on aircraft carriers are really good at keeping things running, but eventually they will need a resupply. The best answer I can come up with is suspended animation. We can't do it yet, but it doesn't break any physical laws, so it is in the realm of possibility.
@@isaacarthurSFIA Dark Forest is NOT about inactivity... it's about quietly expanding and observing. Nobody who finds themselves in a Dark Forest would think of inactivity... the obvious plan for the Dark Forest theory is surviving while quietly trying to determine what else exists in the Dark Forest.
i noticed that time elapse argument could work in reverse in case of civilizations that appeared during the bath water epoch. if life for them gets harder the further forward in time they go. of course they would have enough time to become black hole farmers, but assuming they somehow cannot overcome their weaknesses
Rewatching this episode with a more “sensitive” eared girl in the room, & she just asked why He just referred to Humankind as “mostly homeless”😂 that one got me. I had to think about it for a solid amount of time before it hit me😅 I don’t even hear Arthur’s impediment anymore. I think that with the amount of time I’ve been listening to him talk, has just locked me in. It’s a dialect as far as my brain goes. Also it’s associated with a more optimistic & less Bleak outlook about humanity’s potential and our possible future. Which is better than my baseline unfortunately 😮😅 I don’t think she’s ever read the hitchhikers guide series. I didn’t want to push it by asking. Regardless I thought I would share this ridiculous exchange of words and ideas.
Isaac I just want to tell you how much your speech implement has improved. I was listening to a decade old episode last night, then this one now, and you SI has literally vanished.
At what point will we need a compendium describing the compendiums? In a world where the content must flow, this channel is king and I for one, thank you for all your effort Mr. Futurism Amalgamator.
He won't even give Gravity Trains their own episode! I'm gonna have to wait 200 years!
I agree indeed.
Pppp
Pppp
This has carried me through many dishes and chores.
Thanks for the great food for thought!
Me too
Thank you for this mega-episode! Its is a great way to check if I am up to date, because it seems like a new solution is made every year 😅
Three hours of awesome!
Im gonna fall asleep to this a few nights in a row to get through it. Its my favourite way to enjoy thrse episodes.
Sometimes I put episodes on to fall asleep, but I also throw them on while in the car driving for work. That probably is doing something unhealthy to my brain and sleep patterns, but when the videos are this good, what choice do I have?
Absolutely not! This is mine to fall asleep to ; P
Haha thank goodness I’m not the only one who finds his voice super soothing to fall asleep too
Me too! This is where my ASMR journey has landed, awesome space and futurism videos as I drift of to sleep each night for many years now
@@fluxmebabyJohn Michael Godier's channel knocks me out in two minutes every time.
Thanks for this video. I think that we are forgetting the historical period this question was asked in. When Fermi made the statement in 1950, it was believed that the universe could be infinitely old. The theory of the Big Bang only became the leading theory in the 1960s. At the time of asking a major of people that the universe could be infinitely old. In an infinitely old universe, we should have been visited. In a universe that has a finite age, and that things need time to happen. We could simply be the first in our part of the universe or one of the first, and that needs to happen is for more time to pass. I don't believe it is a paradox for us in a universe with a finite age.
Pray we are alone in the universe... because if there's more advanced space aliens then out of self-preservation the space aliens would limit and control the expansion of humans in the universe due to humans have a long ongoing history of wars, lying, cheating, stealing and violence. And there's many scenarios much worse.
"the Universe is infinite but not every planet is inhabited, therefore there is a finite number of planets. Any number divided by infinity is effectively zero, therefore anyone you meet is a figment of your imagination"
HHGTTG
@@ericpode6095 If I have an infinite 'number' of apples and 1 out of every 10 apples is green, not red. How many green apples do you think there are ..... well infinity also. The problem with infinity is its is not a really a number, so you can't do normal maths with it.
@@SK-ow4vw it's from "The Hitchhiker's Guide To The Galaxy".
Just thought it was appropriate as Hitchhiker's is a favourite of Isaac.
May not be an exact quote, it's been a while since I read/listen/watched it! 😉
@@ericpode6095 Well then, that's OK. By the way I DO cut my own hair. Sometimes over a few days. So it can look weird for a day or two.
Oh my goodness … this will be sending me off to sleep for a couple of weeks. I’ve gotten pretty good at rewinding to where I faded away. I also play you at reduced speed, as your pace of speech is so dense (not a complaint, it’s just how your brain works) 🙏
"you don't need to watch from beginning to end"
I beg to differ, my dear Isaac. That's why I'm here
Isaac brother thanks for allowing me to have seen you since the very beginning 🙌 I’ve been waiting for this again since it’s one of my favorite topics. It really helps me when speaking to other to convey just how special life is.
My cousin has the same speech impediment - so glad you are open about discussing it, and didnt let it discoutyou from narration!!!
This is perfect, I've been using a lot of SFIA videos to set some constraints on a soft-scifi setting and I'll need to decide how many aliens there are and how detectable they are eventually.
I would like to read your book/end result.😊
We need a Fermi Paradox "Drink and Snack Hypothesis". As civilizations become more sophisticated, they spend more and more of their thought process to planing their next snack. No time to devote to searching for stupid aliens.
Issac Arthur upvoted my comment ! Senpai noticed me! 😀🦓
@@General12th The next logical step would be searching the stars for cosmological snacks and beverages. So that leads us right back to square one... where are all the hungry aliens? 👽
See now you went and ruined an entire core of the channel by presenting the clear answer and ending the paradox! Now what? Back to discussing o’neal cylinders?
I'm cooking up my quantum four-cheese alfredo for this one. Help yourself to the pantry but stay away from the Planck Hot Sauce. It packs the power of a black hole merger on your tongue.
@@ClanHawkins The cylinders could be squeezable, and out one end could come a pate...or maybe a cheese product of some sort?
I hope this isnt weird to say but i like the way you talk. My nephew sounds like you. hes 14 and is very self conscious about his speech. More than he even lets on i think. Hes such a bright kid and i hate that hes so critical about himself. I cant wait to visit him and show him your channel. Or at least have your channel playing with him able to hear it so he doesnt think im being lame
I love how you are so systematic and how you successfully covered the whole subject. Thanks a lot! Would you propose your 5 "best" reasons for the fermi paradox? The ones you think are the most plausble?
This video is what I’ve wanted updated for a long time! We might need a bit more than just a drink and a snack for this one!
It's a 6-pack and large pizza video. 😄
This is awesome. Thank you for making it. I love compendium episodes.
My guess is that the Fermi paradox is overstated and it's way too early in the game to be able to say. But also that technological life is rare and widely scattered. Basing that off of how long it took Earth to produce radio telescopes and stuff. But I still listen to videos like this, because it's interesting and boosts my imagination. I know Isaac has spent a lot of time thinking about and talking about extra-terrestrial life, so has a lot of info to relay.
I saw somewhere that phosphorus is a finite resource and that we might run out in a couple hundred years. It's essential for a lot of biological functions like DNA and photosynthesis. It's also a key component of agriculture. So maybe every civilization eventually runs out of phosphorous and collapses. Could be a pretty daunting filter if all intelligent life needs phosphorus to survive.
@@t_ylr Phosphorus is an element and doesn't disappear. If no longer an adequate quantity, life seems very clever at finding work arounds.
No it isn't. If aliens exist they should be already here, not just visiting but already used Earth material to build a Dyson sphere. All the "solutions" to the Fermi paradox are pure cope tho. There are only two possibilities:
1. Life is almost impossible to randomly appear randomly and we are the only case in Observable universe
2. It's a simulation and there is nothing outside on purpose, cause it's a simulation of this planet. It's basically the same as God only created life on Earth tho
@@friendlyone2706it effectively does disappear to us when it's been combined with something we can't extract it back from to its elemental form. Also it is mined when found in large quantities, if it's the lost in wastewater we can't get it back without impossible processes, having phosphorus dilute in the water is not the same as a mineable source.
Production and narration wise, this is the best compendium yet. Bravo
3 hours, awesome. I now have something intelligent to listen to while at work
Three hours of fantastic content on this topic is plenty of food for thought... No snack or drink required. Appreciate the time and effort it took to produce this scrumptious episode!
Woah, I can't believe I didn't notice your speech had improved until you mentioned it. It really is a huge difference! Great video, I really enjoyed it.
Arthur was telling me just the other day that, "The rain in Spain stays mainly in the plain".
We need an “Isaac Arthur hypothesis”, as civilizations become more sophiticated, they spend more and more of their thought process thinking about the fermi paradox. In the end they will produce and watch such dense video’s there will absolutely no time left to search for silly aliens.
Don't worry about your speech i enjoy listening to ya as you are thanks for the work to keep the channel going 🙂
Good call, man. It starts with gaining a tolerance, then eating less (thats really when it starts to turn). Making mistakes, having accidents, mood stuff...
I'm proud of you. Looking at it, and seeing it getting in the way. Stopping now is really smart.
You mentioned self medicating and depression, I was too. You should really book an appointment with a shrink (psychologist). I did, I'm way better now.
Hang in there, brother. ✊️
Fantastic, thank you for this.
For myself, show me any evidence at all that there is any kind of life anywhere outside this planet that can be shown not to have originated here and I'll rethink: "We see nothing because there is nothing - life is that rare and we only struggle with the notion because we are here to notice."
THABK YOU VERY MUCH for all the work, dear Sir! Cheers from Gernany.
Wow. Thanks for the ultimate vid on this. I always feel that the view of alien motives is so suspect and generally based on attitudes born in a distinct human historical epoch of scarce resource. None of that makes sense to me when civilizations are no longer resource-constrained.
Thank you so much Isaac- really enjoying this. I appreciate your diligence, thorough research and beautiful voice! Looking forward to checking out more of your channel for sure
Was just looking on your channel for older fermi paradox video's lol! This is perfect timing!
I bet you know perfectly well USA Navy has practically proven Fermi Paradox is BS
Yet you people are here orgasmic about one of the Holy Trinity of Scientism
Terraplanism at its highest
Whenever I think about the Fermi Paradox I remember the old saw about how the first message we receive will be "For God's sake, shut up or they're going to hear you!".
I've been designing planetariums for a bit over a decade and I'm studying astrophysics finally. I love this episode. I'll just add, it's excessively hard to detect signs of life very far from our solar system. Very few forms of electromagnetic radiation can be detected from very far in the detail required to see signs of life, especially beyond 100 light years.
Darn I thought there was an easy button for that. Can't Sam at openAI build one?
The most compelling solution to me is The Universe is Too Young
It predicts exactly what we see, in that it actually solves the "paradox" if true
And it actually makes sense and seems likely. All things considered, the universe is not very old at all, we only consider it to be old on first glance because humanity is quite young, and humans only live about a century
So it attacks the firmi paradox directly by challenging the "old" part of the universe in the question
Just discovered this channel. Thank you RUclips algorithm! Mr. Arthur is a deep thinker. Love how well thought out his content is. And he covers the most interesting topics!
I've been waiting for a episode over a hour... More please... Like if you feel the same way
Ok I solved it after re thinking a bunch of my previous ideas and consolidating them. Overcoming the urge to expand without check is THE GREAT FILTER. It happens to life at all stages from the great oxygenation event to today with our carbon emissions. This filter is constantly effect up until the galactic stage. I believe this is the most evidence based answer to the fermi paradox. It answers every question and will happen every time without fail in any limited resource as all resources must necessarily be. Phew I been thinking that one out a while.
Those examples show the inability to overcome the urge.
@@freehat2722 yes all those are examples of life failing to over come the urge to expand without check. That is what the term “filter” means. That some life does keep that in check and some life does not. An example of life succeeding would be the adaption to multicellular life during the great oxygenation event. Look at invasive species often times destroy their own habit or food source and die out. Every species every group every organism goes through this because of the shape of reality and entropy. Anytime there is a resource limit this filter is in place. It is pretty clearly the answer to the paradox.
@@MaciejLorentz Sounds good to me.
I've been waiting for this video for what feels like so long now. So happy that its finally here
Well done for improving your diction, makes the show a lot easier to follow for a non native English speaker as I am. Thanks! ❤
This will be the first time I seek out one of the “see also”s. -because “hermit shoplifters hypothesis”. 👾
Got my coffee and a snack...now I just need the time. Thanks Isaac!
Astonishing quality opus! Congratulations!
Regarding the concept of filters, I would like to point out that filters can often be worse than just multiplying their independent probabilities. They could oppose each other forming only a narrow pass region as inductance and capacitance do with frequency in an electic circuit.
You are AMAZING with these shows..
Three hour video on the fermi paradox?! Definitely earning my wrinkle today.
The SCP universe had a really interesting solution to the fermi paradox. It turned out in the SCP universe that alien civilizations were super common. Unfortunately, every civilization discovered what looked to be an incredible technology that would provide unlimited energy and unlock the secrets of the universe. As soon as they unlocked this tech, however, it immediately caused a k class civilization ending scenario. Somehow the discovery shattered the laws of physics and reality in the solar system as those civilizations knew them. Reality, thought, experience, even concepts and abstractions started deteriorating leading to terrible deaths. Planets were transformed and altered in unexpected ways. Individual's consciousnesses were slowly etched away until nothingness. One survivor managed to transmit a log entry to nearby civilizations explaining what was happening and the incomprehensible nature of it. Really a fascinating story. Some inevitable poison pill technology would be a really good explanation. Something like a technology that allows you to tap into quantum fields and harvest energy, but which would cause a localized disruption. Like maybe they tap into the electromagnetic field somehow to harvest energy, which causes a localized transition or change in the larger EM field which alters the laws of chemistry thereby immediately killing every lifeform on the planet. It would be very effective at killing off life wherever it got too advanced but essentially leaving no trace unless you visited the planets themselves.
Isaac, you a real freakin G, dawg.
I didn’t even realize the video was 3 hours long until you told me to buckle up 😭😭 I was already locked in
awesome, there have been many added recently and i would love to see full coverage of all of them!
wow your speech is really changing! your speech never bothered me at all but congrats thats amazing
Idea: As civilisations advance they devote more resources towards trolling and pranks.
No doubt as you are living it
Wow....
3 hours non stop fun and sci fi...
✅✅✅✅✅
I so enjoy your presentations! I will soon donate to your content when my resources (financially) allows me. Thanks so much!❤❤❤❤❤
Congratulations Isaac athur for sharing this idealisms
Isaac, I have also played Acquire many times. In fact, the greatest personal achievement of my life as a tabletop gamer is the time I won a game against the defending world champion.
That's pretty awesome, congratulations!
@@isaacarthurSFIA Thanks! Although I haven't been able to replicate that event since; but hoping to someday do something that has similar bragging rights. But I would say that you did even better by meeting your future wife, something I haven't been able to achieve yet...
Ok, Ok, I’m calling you out on that one, How would one steal an entire nebula? I.e. “Grand Theft Nebula”
“In less then 60 -120 seconds, for a short if possible”
Congrats on the permission to file for adoption!!
I need to clock in. I’ll watch more on my break then probably finish up when I get home.
This is A master piece brother! I remember your original fermi paradox compendium was broke up in like smaller parts. Then you had, A few longer ones, like the one with the ET mouse as the thumbnail.😂 This is great tho! The new visuals are cool, I think I recognize a few oldies too of the visuals?!
This episode is like the Pokédex of Fermi Paradoxies. Gotta catch 'em all! I'm just glad I recognized 95% straight away 😅
Not sure why your speech issue is such a concern. I've always liked it. Don't worry about it, but yes the end of the episode it is less noticeable.
A loooooong time ago you really helped my understand the concept of the fermi Paradox and changed my mind on the certainty that there would be smart galactic spanning alien civs..
"Life is what we make of it-- so beautiful or so what?"
Loved this one, thanks Isaac and wife!
3+ hours!
I'm going to need a *few* drinks
It's not a paradox. It's a question whose answer is a number. One is a number. The answer can be one, just like it can be any other number.
Ah, the Fermi paradox. Has it really been that long since the original video? Wow, I'm old.
Minor mental typo: in "compound filters", you said that (1/2)^10 is just under 1/1000000. It's actually 1/1024 (you probably meant (1/2)^20, which is just under 1/1000000.
so while I enjoy a drink and snack to this vid, it occurred to me, that anyone commenting before 3 hours after the vid went up, didn't watch the vid before commenting, like myself. unless they remembered to watch it on nebula before today anyway. maybe there is a name for that time paradox, of knowing what to comment before knowing the details of what is in a vid, lol.
And those comments made well before anyone could have finished the video will almost surely be the most upvoted, and the only comments most people will see coming to this video in the future.
@@UpliftedCapybara yeah, with many of the more thought out comments being hours or days later. out of the top voted range from the appreciated "thanks" or short "great vid" comments to lesser appealing ones that make assumptions or are just arguing over being 'first'. some creators have better communities than others, so it's not exactly universal, just an observation of RUclips overall.
Soothing brain food... Love mega episodes! Keep up the fantastic work 👍👍👍
The Grabby Aliens hypothesis makes heavy use of, and can be seen as the marriage of, the Copernican Principle and the Anthropic Principle. I personally believe that lends it a lot of credibility.
I am beginning to wonder... Is social media a great filter?
I have speculated this for a while.
The dopamine hits from likes is better than heroine
Brought here by aliens.....I mean look at Zuckerberg
Great. Gonna listen to this before sleep over the next couple weeks.
Great analytic resource.
At some point in this 3hr video Isaac probably does solve the Fermi paradox... Just knowing when is the difficult part
Hey Isaac!
Haven't been watching your channel for quite a while, yet the almighty ALGORITHM decided I should watch this.
Firstly, DUDE, as a non-native speaker with a pronounced speech impediment on the R sound, I must say that you lost your impediment during the "Outward Bound" series... And its been ages since these series :)) If you are going to make an announcement in an episode about that impediment, at least speak as you still have it, and then in the end of the episode say "JK, RASCALLY RABBITS"
You talking on the "Are we alone?" subject is how I discovered SFIA about 10 years ago and is my absolute favorite within your channel.
I'm writing this comment as I noticed that you read a paragraph of your script and then, on average, there are at least 2-3 references to old episodes. This is crazy! Love it! :D Good id ea to have your wife make them. Suggestion, make a colab with JMG where you refer old episodes of his and he does the same for yours.
Cheers!
Bravo I will never tell that story of the 3 BEARS the same way without the true dark ending you have reminded of.
Oh hell yeah time for a 3h minecraft sesh
'Be sure to grab a snack and my wife will alternate to make it less monotonous'
*Looks at the lenght* 3 hours?! What a treat, will have to listen to it tonight and prolly sit and properly watch it on the weekend.
Not really interested in the debating and exploring the whole fermi paradox, as it seems lazy to just say "aliens don't exist" despite how vast the universe is. But i admit at least the solutions are nice because the discuss the possibilities for all the how/where/why/when questions that could arise if other intelligent lifeforms inhabit our galaxy yet we haven't met them personally or don't have them registered in history.
I like your voice over AI anytime!
Took many a listening session on multiple trips to work but I got through all of this.
Spendid work as always Isaac.
What?! This was released 4 hours ago.
@@mikomunden Watched/listened to this on Nebula when it was released early.
O ok. That makes sense now.
@@joeygarza9550 If only I had a Time Crystal too...
no matter how many solutions I encounter, none of them seem to really hold up or be as satisfying as the rare earth cluster of solutions... the only other group that does potentially work, although still has some problems due to issues surrounding complexity and information density, is the simulation hypothesis cluster, including Boltzmann brain type arguments.
That said, I I still find that there are some pretty big issues with the simulation hypothesis cluster...
At least ay version that was directed from an "upper level" as it would require a that this upper level has physics that are different than our own in order to be able to produce the universe we observe with all its complexity and scale, not to mention the ethical implications... However, I will concede that the being running the simulation could be a psychopath, but I have some issue with the idea that a civilization could get to this level of sophistication while still having rampant problems with mental health and non-cooperative behaviour, but I guess its not outside of the realm of plausibility.
But speaking from the perspective of not just plausible, but actually likely, as far as I can tell, the rare earth cluster of hypothesis just seems so likely, it's almost a certainty... especially when you start adding up the individual probabilities for each condition that needs to be just right in order to achieve advanced civilization. everything from the position in the galaxy, the presence of our moon, long term stability, right down to having an atmosphere with roughly 20% oxygen to allow for the smelting of metal ore without catching everything else around on fire like what happened in the carboniferous!
If even one of these conditions are not met, the chances of a technological civilization developing drop off exponentially, or are simply rendered impossible.
I'm reasonably certain that if we were to crunch all the factors, the probability of an interstellar civilization arising in any given galaxy might be less than1 every 5-10 billion years or so or even longer, if at all.
You want evidence for this?
How many planets outside of our own Solar System have we discovered so far? Over 5000! Despite many of them being rocky planets roughly the same size as Earth, not one could realistically be expected to have given rise to a civilization. They're either too hot, too cold, tidally locked, or likely blasted by solar flares.
And when you consider that if planets capable of giving rise to civilization are even remotely common, it is statistically unlikely that among our first sample of 5000-most sharing our nice, quiet corner of the galaxy-we wouldn't find at least one that fits the bill. The odds are not looking good.
Dear Issiac, Ive been a long time fan for many years. And I just want to say that Ive very greatful for you and your content, you have a way to draw me into your videos like o other creator on youtube. But now for the point of this comment: a question. Given the past US governments reveal of alien life. What is your thoughts on this? Do you believe what they say? Are you excited about it? Or are you being cautious to give too much credit to them in this field? Again thank you for your content and keep up the amazing work, you inspire many to open mindedness and to the science and wonders of our universe. 🙏
Seriously!? A three hour plus ultimate Isaac Arthur new Fermi Paradox solutions!?!? Yes pleeeease 😋
My favorite solution is that while life is common, civilizations are not.
And among them industrial civilizations are almost statistical error.
Just think about how unique human body is.
We are the only animal that can work in the forge. Others would overheat and expire.
We are neither herbivore nor carnivore. Intelligent obligatory carnivores are highly unlikely to invent farming and grain houses: they would either be hunters or herders.
True herbivores don't need to invent farming techniques because they can it what is already there. Without grainhouses and farming there would be no math and no writing.
Our bodies are small and vulnerable compared to many predators. Intelligent elephants, bears or tigers would have no need to invent weapons and armour.
We are uniquely vulnerable to seasonal cimate change: everybody else have in-body defense mechanism from winter but we had to harness fire and invent building huts.
And speaking of winter, our planet have very inhospitable climate, yet seasons repeat in quite precise cycle. That forced our ancestors to invent technology.
As for industrial capabilities, even despite humans being so uniquely suited to technology, Industrial Revolution happened only ONCE, despite several civilizations in human history reached necessary technology level and stayed on it for very long time. It took unique circumstances to align for industry to pop into existence.
This was quite the episode to release for your 420th lol
Wowwwww. 3 plus hours. Quite literally, like an early Xmas present. Thank You 😃
My face when I saw a 3+ hr Fermi compendium, yes!
The Iliad SFIA style.
SETI, METI, and DETI. I need a Huey, Dewey, and Louie story now
For not being religious you answered my prayers!!! Woohooo!!!
Road trip listening, baby!!!🎉🎉🎉
One solution to the dyson swarm paradox is that if you combine it with the dark forest hypothesis, then aliens might keep swarms so small as to be almost impossible to detect form any meaningful distance. Thus you can have a civilization that controls some percentage of the galaxy, that is a type two civilization by having enough small swarms. But we couldn’t detect them yet.
Woah, nice! I need to pay more attention to the schedule. So much for going to bed hehe.
I have a blink of time contributer theory
The length of time it takes for a species to evolve technologically on the cosmic timespan is so fast that by the time anything else evolves theyve run their course and moved to something we cant see for reasons we havent yet figured out.
Obviously its not a catch all but it could be a major contributor
Have to admit .... one of my favorite topics. ;)
The beauty of existence is such and so all-encompasing that the grasping of a mere infinitesimal part of the whole of the in all senses infinity of the universe conveys religiosity
How about the "Everything Breaks" hypothesis? This could be included in the "Space is Hard" hypothesis. Any trip to another star is going to take a very long time. Even though we can bring a lot of things with us such as 3D printers and water recyclers, eventually something important is going to break that we cannot repair or replace. If you are two light years away from Alpha Centauri, you aren't going to make it.
The people who designed and live on aircraft carriers are really good at keeping things running, but eventually they will need a resupply.
The best answer I can come up with is suspended animation. We can't do it yet, but it doesn't break any physical laws, so it is in the realm of possibility.
3 hours of Isaac Arthur? Christmas came early it seems 🎉
Thank you for this!!!
No problem 😊
@@isaacarthurSFIA Dark Forest is NOT about inactivity... it's about quietly expanding and observing. Nobody who finds themselves in a Dark Forest would think of inactivity... the obvious plan for the Dark Forest theory is surviving while quietly trying to determine what else exists in the Dark Forest.
Drink and a snack? Shoot ill have to eat a couple meals
i noticed that time elapse argument could work in reverse in case of civilizations that appeared during the bath water epoch. if life for them gets harder the further forward in time they go. of course they would have enough time to become black hole farmers, but assuming they somehow cannot overcome their weaknesses
Rewatching this episode with a more “sensitive” eared girl in the room, & she just asked why He just referred to Humankind as “mostly homeless”😂 that one got me. I had to think about it for a solid amount of time before it hit me😅
I don’t even hear Arthur’s impediment anymore. I think that with the amount of time I’ve been listening to him talk, has just locked me in. It’s a dialect as far as my brain goes. Also it’s associated with a more optimistic & less Bleak outlook about humanity’s potential and our possible future. Which is better than my baseline unfortunately 😮😅
I don’t think she’s ever read the hitchhikers guide series. I didn’t want to push it by asking.
Regardless I thought I would share this ridiculous exchange of words and ideas.
Isaac I just want to tell you how much your speech implement has improved. I was listening to a decade old episode last night, then this one now, and you SI has literally vanished.