I love Seth's good-natured style of semi-cynical or sardonic rationality. He's always working from a common-sense base with humor about himself and the big what-ifs. He sees the counterpoints to ambition and hubris at every turn. Thus, he often spouts the answer you weren't hoping to hear, but that really makes the most sense.
Excellent talk, it's good to hear that SETI has become more mainstream in the last few decades. I can't wait to see what we discover in the coming decades.
Seth is such an interesting guy! I have followed his lectures for 10 years now. He has a great way of explaining everything in a formative interesting way with some humour to ! A great guest and a great guy to listen to. Seth playing the ultimate game of chess lol. Love the channel definitely one of the best on RUclips.
@@frasercain Next time you talk to Seth ask if he has any thoughts on Ghost rockets. That's our local variety of UFO:s in Sweden, at least in the 40s and 50s, including witness testimony from a very senior military officer which led to some serious diving investigations (with a public cover story that the officers wife had dropped her wedding ring from a boat). At the time the Soviets were suspects of course but no hard evidence has ever been found. As opposed to when a German V2 landed in Sweden which left a ton or two of metal scattered around the forest and a crater.
Some questions: How far away could we detect our own RF emissions using our current receiving technology? I've previously read the answer to that question is 1 light year which is nothing. Second, as fiber optics and more efficient, lower power RF communications technologies using more advanced modulation techniques like FHSS are being implemented, our own RF emissions should decrease with time. Considering that the odds of ET being in the short, high emissions period we are fast leaving is incredibly low and that, more likely, they will be far more advanced than we, possibly using quantum communications, don't you think the odds of detecting any signal other than an extremely high power, highly directional one foolishly broadcast into an "unknown neighborhood" are virtually nil.
Currently we can't detect very far, but when the Square Kilometer Array comes online, we'd be able to detected leaked RF within about 100 light-years of Earth.
Seth is one of those guys you think would be a total suffer-no-fools curmudgeon and then five minutes in you realize that he's such a genial and fun person.
Fraser, I have a simple challenge for you. Take the Fermi equation and plug in the lowest plausible value for each term. I believe that you will find that the value is less than one civilization per galaxy. If you take optimistic or even average values you get large numbers, but being pessimistic is consistent with observed reality. Thus no paradox, just evidence that some of the less understood parameters are near the lower end of their plausible range.
@Gravel Pit I agree that travel between stars is impractical even if it is not impossible. On the other hand, our current knowledge does not allow us compute any useful constraints on the number of civilizations in the galaxy. It might be hundreds, it might be more, but it could also be less than one. I.e. we could be the "lucky" species that has the whole galaxy to ourselves. The strongest constraint we have is not seeing anyone else. That still leaves a lot of wiggle room.
@Gravel Pit depending on how you define them, there are between two and four parameters were the lower limit is "not exactly zero". We know it is not exactly zero because we exist. We have no evidence that proves a higher limit. For example the probability of intelligent life given life. We have no way of excluding the possibility of it being less than one in a trillion. This would imply that very few galaxies have life. I am not claiming this is the correct value, but I defy anyone to provide hard proof that it is wrong. We only have one example and we must be in the "has intelligent life" category to make the observation. So this only proves that the probability is not zero.
Seth, your ratinale that...if Mars ever had life, the dead will surely outnumber the living reminds of the old Arabic saying و فسر الماء بعد الجهد بالماء wa fusar alma baad al gahed be alma...i.e. he expained after a long effort that water is water! While Perseverance was hurtling in space towards Mars, a recent research concluded that if life exits in Mars it will be well below the surface. So this at least, raises the eyebrows about your theory of finding a "second genesis;" on Mars. According to your hypothesis, life will be not miraculous, but mundane. If this is the case, it would not have taken man that long to know it very early and to use it to his advantage like any other commodity. You also postulated about the DNA makeup in Mars i.e. (1) some version of Earth (2) different, which you wish Perseverance mission will prove. Our DNA build allows us to use our senses within specific environment beyond which it cannot do much. You have also stated that the sun and its planets are billions of years younger than other celestial systems/beings who are more advanced than us with self-aware intelligence. We are pompous with our mundane intelligence to seek them when the onus is on them being of higher intellect to seek us.
30-40-50 millions years to colonize the galaxy seems short in comparison to the lifetime of the galaxy, but try selling a 30 million year get-rich-quick scheme to investors.
Is it me or Seth was pretty bemused by this lol. Think he was expecting more challenging, original realistic questions? Does it seem Seth thinks this guy thinks he knows more than he's saying? just got that impression thats all but enjoyed this.
This interview felt weird. At times he treated you at times like a typical journalist from CNN or something instead of someone who was reading the scientific literature for decades
you think this is bad? you havent seen an interview he did some months ago. he was questioned about seti and the so called alien search. he was not prepared, because he is used to being praised all the time. when the critical questions came, man, how he handled that terribly! which ended up being insulting to the interviewer!
A lot of stupid questions being asked. The simple facts, those planets are light years away. We aint going there so waste of time. Rethink in a thousand years time.
Seth always brings a big smile to my face! Most smart people like him have a good sense of humour.
Me too. Always a pleasure to talk with him.
I love Seth's good-natured style of semi-cynical or sardonic rationality. He's always working from a common-sense base with humor about himself and the big what-ifs. He sees the counterpoints to ambition and hubris at every turn. Thus, he often spouts the answer you weren't hoping to hear, but that really makes the most sense.
Yeah, it's always fun to talk with him.
Couldn't have put it better.
Excellent talk, it's good to hear that SETI has become more mainstream in the last few decades. I can't wait to see what we discover in the coming decades.
Me too. :-)
Seth’s podcast is great and Fraser your awesome as always. Cool you had this interview.
Thanks! Lots more interesting interviews coming up.
Looking forward to it for sure
Shostak is the man, and SETI has a great youtube channel for space science interviews and talks. Great content
Agreed!
Seth is such an interesting guy! I have followed his lectures for 10 years now. He has a great way of explaining everything in a formative interesting way with some humour to ! A great guest and a great guy to listen to. Seth playing the ultimate game of chess lol. Love the channel definitely one of the best on RUclips.
Seth is always a delight to listen to!
Agreed. :-)
Thank you Seth! Hope you come to Sweden for something better than a cruise visit next time!
Thanks for watching!
@@frasercain Next time you talk to Seth ask if he has any thoughts on Ghost rockets. That's our local variety of UFO:s in Sweden, at least in the 40s and 50s, including witness testimony from a very senior military officer which led to some serious diving investigations (with a public cover story that the officers wife had dropped her wedding ring from a boat). At the time the Soviets were suspects of course but no hard evidence has ever been found. As opposed to when a German V2 landed in Sweden which left a ton or two of metal scattered around the forest and a crater.
20 years ago.
Then partner: you've left your computer on.
Me: oh, yeah, I'm leaving it on in case aliens are trying to contact us.
Some questions: How far away could we detect our own RF emissions using our current receiving technology? I've previously read the answer to that question is 1 light year which is nothing. Second, as fiber optics and more efficient, lower power RF communications technologies using more advanced modulation techniques like FHSS are being implemented, our own RF emissions should decrease with time. Considering that the odds of ET being in the short, high emissions period we are fast leaving is incredibly low and that, more likely, they will be far more advanced than we, possibly using quantum communications, don't you think the odds of detecting any signal other than an extremely high power, highly directional one foolishly broadcast into an "unknown neighborhood" are virtually nil.
Currently we can't detect very far, but when the Square Kilometer Array comes online, we'd be able to detected leaked RF within about 100 light-years of Earth.
It is absurd to think that trillions of planets could exist for 10 billion years with only one developing intelligent life. Zero, maybe; one, never.
It did take 5 billion years though. So its definitely not a normal thing to happen
That's why the Fermi Paradox is a paradox. Life should be everywhere, but we don't see it, so where is it?
@@frasercain maybe they are wondering the same thing about us
The zero, one, infinity-rule. If we find one more then the answer is infinity.
@@frasercain Closer to a paradox of why ETOL isn't advanced enough for humans to detect.
Seth is one of those guys you think would be a total suffer-no-fools curmudgeon and then five minutes in you realize that he's such a genial and fun person.
Yup, he's a lot of fun.
AU.. Is that astronomical unit?
I found a tiny patch of stars arranged in such a way that they make words: "This is the base reality."
Whoa, I guess it's not a simulation. Wait... that sounds like a trick from the programmers.
@@frasercain Artificial universe coders can be very sneaky.
My character algorithm insists I am not a simulation.
That's just what the coders in the next simulation up want us to believe.
Fraser, I have a simple challenge for you. Take the Fermi equation and plug in the lowest plausible value for each term. I believe that you will find that the value is less than one civilization per galaxy. If you take optimistic or even average values you get large numbers, but being pessimistic is consistent with observed reality. Thus no paradox, just evidence that some of the less understood parameters are near the lower end of their plausible range.
@Gravel Pit I agree that travel between stars is impractical even if it is not impossible. On the other hand, our current knowledge does not allow us compute any useful constraints on the number of civilizations in the galaxy. It might be hundreds, it might be more, but it could also be less than one. I.e. we could be the "lucky" species that has the whole galaxy to ourselves. The strongest constraint we have is not seeing anyone else. That still leaves a lot of wiggle room.
@Gravel Pit depending on how you define them, there are between two and four parameters were the lower limit is "not exactly zero". We know it is not exactly zero because we exist. We have no evidence that proves a higher limit. For example the probability of intelligent life given life. We have no way of excluding the possibility of it being less than one in a trillion. This would imply that very few galaxies have life. I am not claiming this is the correct value, but I defy anyone to provide hard proof that it is wrong. We only have one example and we must be in the "has intelligent life" category to make the observation. So this only proves that the probability is not zero.
The dress code to enter the party with the other aliens is developing warp drive.
I hope they'll share it with us.
Half this interview is you talking. I would like to hear more Seth.
Mr ahh I’m gonna live stream every time I’m not here
I warned you that the special guests will happen at random times. :-(
Congratulation from all 8000 Shostak- sername Ucrainians.
Zontar, the Thing form Venus: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zontar,_the_Thing_from_Venus
It’s the others that’s the answer to the Fermi paradox. We need to develop some bob’s quick or we are next.
¡"Hello there" Ƨeth!
Thanks for watching!
It's all just a simulation after all 🤔
That's just what the next simulation up wants us to believe.
Korolov? Cholomei space constructors were not russions but Ucrainians as your family name is Ucrainian
Seth, your ratinale that...if Mars ever had life, the dead will surely outnumber the living reminds of the old Arabic saying و فسر الماء بعد الجهد بالماء wa fusar alma baad al gahed be alma...i.e. he expained after a long effort that water is water!
While Perseverance was hurtling in space towards Mars, a recent research concluded that if life exits in Mars it will be well below the surface. So this at least, raises the eyebrows about your theory of finding a "second genesis;" on Mars.
According to your hypothesis, life will be not miraculous, but mundane. If this is the case, it would not have taken man that long to know it very early and to use it to his advantage like any other commodity.
You also postulated about the DNA makeup in Mars i.e. (1) some version of Earth (2) different, which you wish Perseverance mission will prove. Our DNA build allows us to use our senses within specific environment beyond which it cannot do much.
You have also stated that the sun and its planets are billions of years younger than other celestial systems/beings who are more advanced than us with self-aware intelligence. We are pompous with our mundane intelligence to seek them when the onus is on them being of higher intellect to seek us.
hi all
30-40-50 millions years to colonize the galaxy seems short in comparison to the lifetime of the galaxy, but try selling a 30 million year get-rich-quick scheme to investors.
Even those timescales were pretty slow. It would be more like 1-10 million years. Still not that interesting to investors though.
@@frasercain I think time and distance is the flaw in the Fermi Paradox. Not impossible, but not beneficial to anyone to colonize a galaxy.
Someone will have the motivation and will try. I'm sure the galaxy needs flat pack furniture and horse meat balls :-)
39:50
Is it me or Seth was pretty bemused by this lol. Think he was expecting more challenging, original realistic questions? Does it seem Seth thinks this guy thinks he knows more than he's saying? just got that impression thats all but enjoyed this.
This interview felt weird. At times he treated you at times like a typical journalist from CNN or something instead of someone who was reading the scientific literature for decades
I thought it was fine. He's very accustomed to those more general questions, but it still useful to get his insights.
@@frasercain Oh don't get me wrong, it was super interesting to get his insights! TY for doing this 🙏
you think this is bad? you havent seen an interview he did some months ago. he was questioned about seti and the so called alien search. he was not prepared, because he is used to being praised all the time. when the critical questions came, man, how he handled that terribly! which ended up being insulting to the interviewer!
yeah. I think the interviewer was searching or things he was sure seth wud find correct.. lol and he never did..
A lot of stupid questions being asked. The simple facts, those planets are light years away. We aint going there so waste of time. Rethink in a thousand years time.
The first 5 mins insanely boring hearing you guys reminis. Should cut right to it next time.