Daniel Kahneman: The Trouble with Confidence
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- Опубликовано: 10 фев 2012
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I just have to smile sometimes. This man got a Nobel prize in economics without being an economist himself. 5 stars.
I was actually writing that reply in support of Daniel Kahneman and to reflect my own disgust at the way the economics profession has turned into a failure. You clearly have a bit more insight than the typical youtuber though so I will let it pass.
gmshadowtraders
Thanks for the pro response! Gets me every time.
I'll do you one better!...John Nash got his PhD with a Thesis with only two references , and one reference was his paper.
Didn't deserve it either
Economics is a bit of a joke, at least in the sense that it purports and promises to deliver insights most social scientist consider light years beyond our current modeling capabilities when it comes to complex human behaviour (we linguists are not even "confident" about how to model and predict vowel production in a small village of 500 speakers and yet economists claim to be able to explain chaotic interactions amongst millions of humans). That said, nobel prizes are also a bit of a joke, in the sense that the whole process is prescientific, ideologically biased and subject to vested socioeconomic interests.
RIP Sir, always a great fan of you since I first read your book Thinking Fast and Slow.. Love from Pakistan
I've been thinking about this the other day due to some video blog thing i happened to come across, the confidence of Americans and its impact on internal and external conflicts, it's very scary when you do some research and think about it for a second, an ego too big can make you oblivious to your own flaws and its impact on other people.
Confidence - a result of personal gain/success, persons atributes(belif in success)+ experience. A very powerfull tool. Also present in many powerfull leaders, or sucessfull bussinessmen for fighting their way up. When you have too much of it, you get a self pride that makes you arrogant as a result of of what you have accomplished- if you lose perspective you get over confident- . Even though you started with good intentions- it ends up in a war maintaining that potition instad of what you
Such simple and in your face things that we miss and fail to realize in our everyday life/decisions, because of our biases and rigid thinking styles.
Watching this in Corona times.
So true.
Yes, more of this
Brilliant, how revealing!!!
Bigthink, I love your channel and I watch every video you put out. But would you, if it's possible, release longer videos?
I work on the computer all the time, and it's nice to have these videos that I can devote my ears to, while my eyes are working on something else.
Although, I think I understand why you stick to a short video format.
more topics like this plz
Thanks. I will.
I think that a lot of start-up fails more than just over-confidence. A lot of people also don't know exactly what they want. They have a "Let's wait and see what happens" type of mentality.
Isn't that a form of over-confidence?
It seemed to me he was saying that you have to be overconfident to believe your business will succeed when most fail. I'm not sure he was saying overconfidence made them fail. I could have misunderstood though.
The problem must be overexpectation. True success is only the cumulative result of failure. Dont beat yourself up
I think people should always be confident, but they should also be realists. I don't think there is such a thing as being overly confident, only those who are very unrealistic.
Being overly confident comes from being unrealistic.
In other words it is best to be a optimistic realist. Believe that things will go well but understand that they may fail.
more about entrepreneurship and failure please
optimism and over confidence is what moves us humans forward. On the other hand, coming down from trees could be the worst mistake we have ever made.
big think with another good one.
This should be entitled "the trouble with *over*confidence"
It's hard to gauge when one is confident and overly confident, that's his point. So if you cant distinguish between the two you can say generally "the trouble with confidence"
Well, I checked it, and what the paper discussed was that gain-framed messages were more effective in persuading subjects than loss-framed messages.
I think it would be necessary to do more studies on the subject to talk conclusively about this, but so far it seems you're right to say negative bias is not something that he'd be right to address.
@garyglittereatschild he didnt say one shouldnt follow his dreams due to the possibility of failure, he just made an example showing how over confidence is not always good
yes
@SokarEntertainment Well, I think part of the Big Thing is that it's not just two or three people speaking their mind on every issue that is asked of them, but rather people who have specific fields and specialties to offer a more informed explanation. In a topic like this I think this was the right guy to choose, but if it's physics then go with Michio Kaku, because that's where he excels.
The culture has emphasized too much on confidence, instead it makes people overconfident and nobody talks about the problem of being overconfident. I was overconfident and I have made many mistakes because of that, it’s not diffident if you want to be humble and realistic about things
i believe confidence is good in general. But confidence without looking at the reality of things is asking for trouble.
@GypsyLeah hes good at explaining complex matters in simple terms.
Good red, mr, good read.
physically, there exist both a negative bias and a positive offset.
the positive offset enables organisms to 'get used' to new threats, and learn in this process. the negative bias is a relation between responses to threat\bonus - whereby the graph is steeper after exposure to threat, than to a gratification.
the latter is supposedly the cause (contributes) of the 'loss aversion' - yet no proof supports this argument in O'keefe & Jansen's meta-research.
feel free to comment on this discussion
@MrOnairos Took the words right out of my mouth. It's also important to make a distinction between the confidence of political leaders and other leadership figures and the confidence of entrepreneurs. I never would have started my own business without a great endowment of confidence in my own abilities and discipline.
not only it has been statistically overruled, the physical negative bias which has been demonstrated widely (a physiological effect that avoids danger or discomfort) (Caccioppo et al, 1999 etc.) and was presumably the "physiological" explanation for the said aversion, was also insignificant. Moreover, even the assumptioin of the "kernel state" which is the incentive (loss\gain) was tested, and yielded no such effect.
btw. correction: check O'keefe, 2008 and not as i mentioned earlier 1999 :)
don't you LOVE it when comment responses are the top comment!
@GuruEdward It is. He's saying be realist and don't be overconfident when you want to start a business and you will succeed. Success = money. Money = girls.
yes, yes i do.
@Shanongao
[We need to choose whos BETTER for the job]
The problem is that, like in the 2008 election, we're given a choice of Tweedledum and Tweedledee. Each party chose the person who was most confident about their lies and the rest of us had only those options,
So what I got from this is that overconfidence gives the illusion that your odds of success are higher than they actually are. Once you're invested, you can lose more than you gain, because you didn't guage it correctly. If you read his book, it's a bias of the mind, offering known solutions to a question different from the original one. If you don't caredully analize the ideas logically, you'll accept the odds rather than challenge the truth, and end up with a loss.
Entrepreneurs don't know the risks, and that's exactly why they take them. So they can learn the risks and create new and better things in the process. There are no risks in business. Only lessons with different price tags. The entrepreneur knows he can always get back up if it didn't kill him or land him in jail, so death is probably the only risk a real entrepreneur takes seriously. If I can't obviously see why I shouldn't do this, then maybe I'm on to something, and if I'm not, I am ready to learn a lesson so valuable, it was worth whatever I paid for it.
Easy to type but a lot harder to practice. If you have a family to support it feels like a risk not a lesson worth learning.
Yes its hard to practice. The 9 to 5 life is even harder to practice for an entrepreneur though so you opt for the lesser of 2 evils.
TechTechInc There are certainly risks in business, you can call it a "lesson with a price tag" but then you would be tossing out a very useful term referring to the probability that an action will have some negative consequence.
Risk is particularly severe in entrepreneurial ventures where there is no historical information about how consumers reacted to something similar. You might lose all the capital you'd saved up or borrowed for your business, and you might never get another chance at a business venture of the same magnitude.
Facing such a risk, an entrepreneur would be insane (or at least highly abnormal) to pursue a business venture for the sake of risk itself. Not to mention the fact that no one would agree to finance a venture by someone who values risk for its own sake.
:');
Very well said!
@Gytax0
place then damn they would most likely have the skills and abilities to get into a research post involving string theory, or even an invitation to the scientific string theory communes etc. Of course its much more difficult, that's the whole point of simplifying something to make it more accessible.
@infintiyward why yes, yes i do.
I love this this guy and I do believe in everything he says... But I still think fast
He forgot to mention the sociopath in the business world. I trusted an "optimist" then realized he was actually a sociopath and it costed me 17 000$. Now I know the difference, expensive lesson.
Daniel Kahneman es un psicólogo israelo-estadounidense notable por su trabajo sobre la psicología del juicio y la toma de decisiones, así como sobre la economía del comportamiento. Sus hallazgos empíricos desafían el supuesto de la racionalidad humana que prevalece en la teoría económica moderna.
@chrisose thanks i could hardly understand cuz english isnt my first language
I love you.
One must find the balance
@MrOnairos I think he is talking in context of e.g. the american educational system. It promotes confidence but doesnt yield good results, if we compare it to the educational systems of south korea, china, japan.
In America, it's all about confidence. There are tons of tips in magazines how to boost it, how to be optimistic. Nobody in the media will tell you to punish yourself for your failings.
No need to dampen the message if everybody is telling you only one side.
@VisCreed I don't think it's just that they don't have the proper education, but realistically not every idea has the potential to take off. A few of my family members have masters in business, but they've also all had failed small business ventures.
Go HD for nose hair.
@garyglittereatschild
You misunderstand his point, he's not saying you should just give up because "most shops fail within five years", what I think he is saying however is that if you're going to venture into a new business/sector make sure you've thoroughly thought everything through, and have well founded reasoning behind being confident that the venture will reap profits and be successful. Research, network, research.
@Gytax0
Lol to become good enough to be at the forefront of any field is more difficult than initially implied, from economics to politics, Sports science to Law, people get into every one of these thinking they're gonna get straight into the exciting stuff and realise "The sad truth"; Physics is no exception. But if someone just comes at you and throws you in the deep end (String theory in the first year for example) you'd just end up quitting anyway. If they get to graduate level in the first
@silveRxG That is definletely NOT the case...an intelligent person may have poor confidence speaking...you can never judge a person's compence in something based on their outter appearances. So no it is not obvious...
What about simply a realistic, with clearly articulated values and principles?
I think the bigger problem is the trouble with arrogance, which Conman clearly has. And speaking of biases, Conman is clearly a determined proponent of the long glorified analytic. Intuition isn't there to make errors, as he incorrectly infers from a relative few instances. It's there to optimize decision making when faced with large and unfamiliar sets of information. It's there to select ideas and bring order to them. These are things his beloved analtyic system cannot achieve, as it is limited in space to 7/+-2 bits, waiting for a great idea to show up in front of it, in some temporal coincidence. Gerd Gigerenzers position is much more sound, and gives a very detailed and well supported account. In contrast, most of of Conman calls 'biases' can be seen as advantages, in only a slightly different light. But Conman avoids casting any such light.
This man speaks very humbly and does not appear arrogant whatsoever. Perhaps it's what he's saying that you do not like.
I’m desperate of a political leader who will explain mistakes, and announce his or her uncertainty. That’s the only way to know they’re honest and authentic.
hello 1.00? whats the word?
Okay so we learned that being optimistic is sometimes good and sometimes bad...this is groundbreaking!
And we all fall victim to the illusion.
Growing up i found the constant lecturing and the importance placed in confidence was nauseating. Often in situations where it was impossible to have any sort of confidence in decision making at all.
@GuruEdward dude, if you wanna get girls, be well groomed, be confident in everything you do, and then you'll just get em that way. not too difficult.
@b22chris There's confidence backed up with knowledge and there's baseless confidence, the latter can have dire consequences.
The best psychologist and Nobel laureate.
@GypsyLeah Because he is a great storyteller
Hey, i know that i probably won't succeed. I simply choose to be optimistic, because, well, why not? besides, the rewards for when i succeed from my optimism usualy weigh out the price of failure.
So... we're as stuck as we've ever been? Oh well, I'll just carry on then.
His line on optimism of generals of opposing armies reminds of that Carlin line "We pray for God to destroy our enemies, our enemies pray for God to destroy us....someone's gonna be fuckin disappointed!"
Matthew Treadway have you read his book thinking fast and slow ? I am giving it a try..
NOWHERE does he say the trouble is in being confident in our intuitive judgments. All he says is optimism is useful under certain conditions, and not useful under others. That's all.
From what I understand, that's exactly the problem of confidence: that it is not always good, only sometimes
Wooah!
Then what should you do when faced with an over-confident opponent?
Moose you play smart!
The same preparation as you ordinarily would. Confidence is a facade. Presence or lack of confidence does not change the underlying fundamentals.
I am starting a bussiness and I am not overconfident, I am realistic, I know that it might not work out well, I take the chance...just because I wanna open it doesnt mean that I am overconfident...no?
please let me know about the fruit of your efforts :)
@Gytax0
But its still science because its backed by the mathematics you seem to feel is a requirement for it to be "real science". Granted leading scientists don't necessarily care much for wormholes but they accept their existence as a probability as part of a bigger theory they're trying to understand, what Kaku does is use these fascinating by products at times to raise awareness of full potential of Physics, inspiring what potentially could be the next generation of Einsteins.
when did kaku go blad?
@garyglittereatschild well yea, but you shouldn't apply that line of thinking to everything you do.
@all Michio Kaku is just one charismatic guy making people actually think about physics who would maybe never do. You can easy compare him with the famous german astro physicist Prof. Harald Lesch (TV Show - Alpha Cantauri).
@najusable
hi look everyone its this guy ....
@goingwithzed Well, he said it, so he probably does get that.
@Gytax0
Believing in something and acknowledging the probability of something being real are two very different things. The reasons these THEORIES exist is because mathematically they're probable until proven otherwise, whether or not you believe in it isn't an issue; the fact however is that these theories bring about partial explanations for events that occur at the quantum level, that's proof enough for me to say they're probable. Things like wormholes are a by-product of cutting edge scienc
@Gytax0
I get the feeling you just dislike the fact he's making science easily accessible to the masses, you'd rather the masses think of science as something purely difficult than something fascinating? The same way you as a kid was probably inspired to go into Physics as a child by seeing the fascinating side of it, is the same way hes trying to inspire as many people as possible. Regardless of your opinion though hes at the forefront of the Physics community (String theory co-founder/Havard)
@samuelphillippi In the ballet? I guess Swan Lake could use an extra dancer. Oh! You must mean ballot. Makes much more sense.
He speaks pretty confidently...
I find it frustrating when I get excited about a new Big Think but it's just some guy reminding me of something I learned when I was five.
in this case it is from the creator of behavioral economics and a nobel laureate
nice
@GypsyLeah because he's smart :)
Can anyone tell me clearly, what he is talking about, in simple words
@Zentz29 Sorry man! My bad! Responded to the wrong comment!
It was?
The more realistic I am the better off I am. even though I was aware already of what he said this video a lot of people are not. do you find it interesting that there are a lot of verbal conflict in youtube video comments? It seems that people are interested in showing how right they are and how wrong others are.
The title says “confidence “ not OVER confidence-- too much of anything is no good…
@donkisiko Science is much more difficult than he implies. I agree that many might have been inspired by him, but that's a bad thing. Many of those inspired were probably inspired by things that I already mentioned. They finish High School, get into a University and see the sad truth:
they won't teach you string theory in the first year.. nor the second... nor the third. String theory isn't governed in your graduate studies. Many people might feel that they have wasted their time.
5 seconds in and it deserves a like.
So over confidence is the problem, not confidence per se. We know that, the title is misleading
Magda Narima, and also let's not forget that he's talking about economic and political aspects of life.
Yes, but when is confidence over-confidence or under-confidence? That's the problem.
@MrOnairos lol
Admiral Mullen knows enough about the presidency to not want it, I say we write him in the ballet.
@garyglittereatschild yeah you SHOULD be optimistic when starting a business. But you SHOULD NOT be optimistic when choosing leaders who need to make critical decisions (like leading countries into war).
That's why I support Ron Paul
@goingwithzed: "expect nothing less from a non-alpha male [sic] xD" this nobel laureate speaking about his field has not put as much thought in to the subject as you, he obviously "underrates" the positive impact of getting it done, even though that is not stated or implied - but in no way have you underrated him. You make the especially clear with your closing comment "does this european get that?". You've provided a decent example in some form of just what he was discussing. A+
@needmydatsun Real physics involves experiments, mathematics, etc. He just speaks some sweet words like parallel universes, string theory, faster than light so people would enjoy watching his shows and fantasize. Just search what other physicists think about his 'quest' at teaching the masses. Same goes with Brian Greene.
@Gytax0
Give me an example of something that he's said that isn't true?
@overheersbeest "plz", Really?
Overconfidence is the feeling you get when you don't fully understand the situation.
Like being jobless with a mounting student debt!
The trouble with overconfidence. Correct it.
Hmm us Americans are very confident compared to the Asian cultures or even European cultures. However, sometimes even if you may fail "technically", but still win in another way like Columbus failed to find a path to India/China, but he discovered America. Galileo explained tides incorrectly, but he helped inspire Newton and Kepler who kept science (and thus) enlightenment going.