Thomas Wiecki - Solving Real-World Business Problems with Bayesian Modeling | PyData London 2022

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  • Опубликовано: 25 дек 2024

Комментарии • 10

  • @davins90
    @davins90 Год назад +1

    number one thomas, number one

  • @paretos-com
    @paretos-com 2 года назад +3

    Great talk! Thanks for sharing

  • @UlfAslak
    @UlfAslak 11 месяцев назад

    Thank you very much for the talk. This was super interesting. I'm also building a Media Mix model at my company, and I have a question. How sensitive is this modeling framework to the scale of the data? That is, should one apply a max scaling or a standardization scaler? Should one scale the spend and revenue time series independently? Are there any best practices for this that you can link to or elaborate on?

  • @andresilva9140
    @andresilva9140 Год назад

    Is the hierchical time series available anywhere?

  • @joaopedrorocha5693
    @joaopedrorocha5693 Год назад

    someone knows the name of the function he uses to model saturation? (at 23:00)

  • @dangernoodle2868
    @dangernoodle2868 2 года назад +5

    23:20 - most infuriating part of the talk, wish I had a link to the notebook where he did that.

    • @pavellogacev94
      @pavellogacev94 2 года назад

      What is so infuriating about it?

    • @steeperdrip9188
      @steeperdrip9188 2 года назад +3

      @@pavellogacev94 he drastically improves the model with a "3-line code change" but doesn't show which three lines he changed

    • @Hecticam
      @Hecticam Год назад

      @@steeperdrip9188 Its like I want to tell people that I am smart but I don't exactly want to share it.

    • @ThomasWiecki
      @ThomasWiecki Год назад +8

      import aesara.tensor as at
      def tanh_saturation(x, b, c):
      return b * at.tanh(x / (b * c))
      with pm.Model() as model:
      # parameter = prior specification
      baseline = pm.Normal("baseline", mu=200, sigma=300)
      cac = pm.Normal("cac", mu=2.5, sigma=5)
      saturation = pm.Normal("saturation", mu=500, sigma=80)
      # linear regression
      pred = tanh_saturation(ad_spend, saturation, 1/cac) + baseline
      noise = pm.HalfNormal("noise", 100)
      # likelihood
      obs = pm.Normal("customers",
      mu=pred,
      sigma=noise,
      observed=customers)
      # inference button(TM)!
      idata = pm.sample()