The Problem With “When” | Disruptive Investing News
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- Опубликовано: 27 май 2024
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or we can go in the opposite direction, everyone thought we would have flying cars by 1980, the thing is flying cars dont really solve a problem.
You guys are spot on about Optimus! It will be here before anyone imagines and then we will behave as if we were always ready for it! And then we will want them to do everything for us!
Excellent video 😁👍🇺🇸
I remember when smart phones first came on. They said interesting, but who wants to hold a slab next to their face.
I think my brain warned out waiting for Cybertruck since 2019, let alone for Optimus......😢
Did they also put a mini subscription price too? Starlink is more expensive than any of the service providers around me. Tesla needs to put the subscription price down!
Electronic shelf labels first appeared in a store about 30 years ago. They aren’t a failed technology in that they continue to be adopted over time but the makers probably had no idea there would be such a limit to the technology 30 years out.
Do people like putting up lots of little adhesive sale labels every week? Hell no.
Do employers like paying workers for hours of squatting at bottom shelves sticking sales prices to shelves? Hell no.
Is it efficient to have employees constantly scanning prices to make sure the latest price changes from head office were put up correctly? Hell no.
Would it make far more sense to implement electronic shelf labels than to redesign the software that prints out labels and change the shelves and the label print outs to try to eek out a bit more efficiency from adhesive labels? Hell yes!
I know of 2 large chain stores in my city that are using electronic shelf labels. Maybe one day every store will be but at 30 years it is already much longer than anyone would have predicted.
I see science and technology predictions in the popular press predicting the exact same things “just around the corner” that were in these publications decades ago.
Yeah, I keep slapping myself that I didn't buy into Grayson Flying Car Systems when they first announced. I'd be destitute by now. Darn!
personally i think people were better off before they were in constant communication with everyone.
Haha great job guys 😂
I feel like I encounter this so much. I'll start trying to get someone to imagine something with me like what if we had a robot and they'll be like "but that'll never happen" or "that's x years away"
Why does that matter if it's years away we're imagining it lol. It's okay for a cool tech to be admired in the past, which is what we are right now in the Optimis timeline
This isn't unusual, manufacturers of large hard disks asked their existing customer base if they would be interested in smaller hard disks that had a lesser capacity and they were not. It did not occur to them that the existence of such a product would generate new demand by corporations that were not their customers such as for iPods, cell phones or medical device. New companies sprouted up to create these products and meet the new demand that they created. The companies that had previously been the incumbent with the prior technology found themselves unable to catch up. Similarly, the President of IBM though that there was a world market of 5 Computers. IBM's vision of computers back then were for computers as big as room with multiple customers paying for computer time. They did not see the mini-computer arrive. Steve Wozniak's first portable computers were based on existing mini-computers but Woz found ways to make the equivalent circuits using either fewer parts or less expensive parts.
The when will be 2 weeks according to Elon.
Colin
You just proved the point
It is a great time to be 82 years old. The old lament "I won't live to see it anyway." is no longer true. I probably will live to see a lot of exciting things.
Well, Problem with this tech is, even at the pace of learning and also getting legal laws changed to let it work in homes your looking at around say 10 years from now!
Because even if the Tesla Bot is ready for working just how we need it to do, the safety and legal law makers will demand it to be proven safe and that takes tons of time.
Plus the price will still be very high to own one even if Tesla get the costs down somehow? It still cost around say $15.000 to $17.000 each unit.
How many people can afford that amount without worrying about it? Not many.
And you forgot that the price does not come down for all new tech just because they mass produce them!
I remember the 1st VHS video recorders being released to the public, those were very pricey indeed and had limited features, it took around 20 years for that to change to a unit costing far less so everyone could afford them and they had tons of features and were common place! Same for HD TV's and Microwaves etc.
So the thing is, even if the tech of the Bot is soon made great and safe and the testing is cleared it for public using it, the cost will still be higher than about 90% of people around the world will afford? Even today there is places in the world which can't afford microwaves or video recorders and even good TV's.
Because we must remember that just because you in a western country can afford them does not mean everyone in the other poor 3rd world countries can do so or even have the option to even try to get one! Mobile phones took 20 years to go down in price such that most people could get one, I know because I was one of those many normal hard working low paid persons whom had to wait most of that time to own a mobile phone, same goes for a good TV or Video recorder etc. And this is the problem with tech.
It is great and all, But most of us are not rich so until the tech comes down in price ( most of which took over a decade or more as I know I saw them over that long time )
we the non rich people the mass of the working force had to wait many years for the cost to drop to the point where we had the money to get it?
Every high tech new product I've seen over the many years of my life like PC's, mobiles, TV's Video Units, Cars etc. all may come down in cost, But most took between 15 to 20 years to get there!
The Bot may take say 8 to 10 years to get there, but it being a high costing super tech system will then be limited to the rich or very well off customers for many years after it is ready.
If it as I think follows the general same time lines of high pricey tech, it will be at least another 10 years for it to come down to say $15.000 as Tesla will not wish to loose money on the huge investments it will take to bring it to the market. Their EV's are still out of most customers reach cost wise now even after the prices dropped a bit.
Not every customer lives in countries like the US or China where the Government gives huge money off the cost of a Tesla. Most countries don't even have money off schemes.
So that means a Tesla Model 3 say in the US with the EV credits off will cost say $7500 less. the UK no money off at all, it costs here £42.000 for a model 3.
Other countries are the same no EV money off so it be full price. that means those wishing to buy a Tesla Model 3 can't do so as it is beyond the budget.
So maybe you should think about the facts of where the new product will be sold and how long it takes to get the tech costs down and also if even then can low paid people buy it than?
It'll take a while for costs to come down, but it's an appliance at most, just another electronic at worst. There isn't going to be any regulatory process. Something like the CPSC might ask them to do a recall after the fact in the event they start injuring people, but even CPSC isn't allowed to just outright ban new products unless there's no other alternative.
what laws? as far as i know no one has passed either smart or panicked laws about robots. they are legal in production, they seem to be totally legal in homes.
I think your timescale 8f off!
I would be surprised if humanoids wernt making a substantial inroads in manufacturing in 3 years, and in our homes a short while after that. They just have to know how to cook, clean, and do laundry to be worthwhile for us.
Why should anyone make up any laws against that?
No, they might tax it, though!
The first robots will be high priced and bought by companies who can justify the cost because it saves them money. This will speed up their adoption. Combined with the fact that bots will make bots so the manufacturing process will be cheap.
Within 5 years they will be in people's homes and affordable to the middle classes. In 8 years they will be affordable to working class people and by 10 years they will be as ubiquitous as the smartphone is today.
Some good points were made but I have been watching failed predictions and promises by technology pundits all my life. Electronic shelf labels have been moving forward since they first appeared in stores back in the 1990s. You would be amazed at how many organizations, big and small, use antiquated DOS based software that they know needs to be replaced - they knew it years ago - but the funding keeps getting cut and the planning has to start from scratch.
If people keep using DOS based spaghetti code from the late 80s running on virtual PCs because the modern computers are too fast for it - deep into the 2000s… if you can still see people printing out hundreds of adhesive shelf labels every week for sales items, you are not going to see humanoid robots in all, most or many workplaces let alone homes in the next couple of years. Some technologies race ahead faster than we thought. Most roll out far slower than anyone imagined.
Depends greatly on the product/service. How fast did the iphone roll out to business and private?
10 W not 100W
So what is your thoughts on Tesla and Optimus?
Watch literally any other video they've made
watch literally this video
@@coulie27 🤡
Rewind and restart.
Pam here….to me, cheaper to get a bot than to have a baby. IDK probably will cause population to implode even further…and we all know how concerned Elon is about people not having enough children!!
I disagree… Less time working means more time socializing. There will be a population increase.
The worry about diminishing population some analysts have, is really about a slightly less workforce.
Why else would anyone think 9 billion people isn't enough?
People will have children because they want them, ignoring workforce issues.
And with humanoids, we can build any workforce we want. The analyst just hasn't analyzed this yet.
You are trying to hype up Tesla by using the cell phone analogy, but forget to mention that very few of the first cell phone players are big today.
People need to understand that being the first does not guarantee anything and Tesla isn't even first to the party.
WHEN? WTF? = when will Jesse go back to using the Henson shaving razor? they sponsor your Channel Jesse claims it's so great and then he grows a beard???
this seems like a b**** slap to Henson. Lol please don't take me wrong I like beards I have one myself I like Tesla's I have one myself but this seems very odd that from the viewers perspective right after Henson endorsed you and Jesse gave testimony how great it was he started growing a beard. So what gives and WHEN will Jesse start shaving with Henson again?
This tech will lead to an Orwellian nightmare.
Not the tech! But the misuse of it might!
@@larsnystrom6698 When it falls into the wrong hands… it will be ugly
You are beating a dead horse, to use a modern expression.
I hope Tesla will avoid becoming "the Nokia of humanoid robots" by rapidly improving, iterating and evolving their robots.
I hope low-IQ people will avoid dictating the behavior of a genious.
Well... It's a potential 1:1 Or even more "Bot: Human" TAM, so it's going to take a while....?
IF Tesla had a AI robot that worked, they would be promising 6000% what it is capable today. Right now they aren't promising crap cause it is vaporware. ONE day it will be available. But so many other technologies have to get sooo much better before we get a AI robot.
It's not vaporware. It's futureware!
And not too far into the future. My guess is that Tesla will have a fair amount of Optimus working in their factories within a year.
Then, we will know how easy it's to teach them new tasks. Until we see that, it's really hard to know if their AI is good enough, or need a new architecture.
Waste of time.
You seem to be running out of FUD.
I find you a bit too optimistic as to Optimus' intelligence. I think there will be clear limitations to make him understand what we want.
But yes, OPTIMUS IS THE FUTURE.