Depends where u live in Sweden, if u live in southern Sweden could be winters with 1 or 2 snowfalls, and mild rest of the winter, i live in middle of Sweden right now its +12 and rain!
Thanks Mark. I have noticed in my work outdoors that sometimes snowy spells come about three weeks apart with the second and third usually a bit more severe than the first. You have them about a month apart but it's the same idea. Thanks to your videos, work and reasarch I now know that's influenced a fair bit by the Madden -Julian Oscillation.
22:45 it is confusing sometimes because between SSTs and SOI atm conditions its the opposite, but yes in laniña conditions ENSO is negative in terms of SSTs but for the SOI, POSITIVE values indicate atmospheric laniña conditions (and so negative SOI values are sign of elniño). What is happening lately is that the atmospheric setup is very inconsistent with series of days alternating between + and - SOI which is preventing laniña to strengthen consistently. Likely it will be an ENSO neutral winter, although on the colder side. If the cold anomalies could settle on the eastern part of the pacific it would help the eastern US and europe to get colder weather, and it seems like it might be possible this year.
Hey Mark missed your livevstream but just been going through the video. Think you had a very good overall forecast last year for Dec and Jan. As you say, Feb was out, but framkly trying to get a decent forecast 3 months away is probably not possible imo. You've been getting good results from watching the MJO this year, and its clearly a strong teleconnection. I just wonder though if other factors will play a more dominant role over winter. In particularly in SSTs as I'm seeing quite a cool down from the extreme highs early this year. This may well be a readjustment, but there may also be other factors involved. Anyway, many thanks for your channel and the winter forecast. Best wishes
A sensible forecast mark. I do wish we had a Scandinavian style climate when they know every winter will be cold and snowy
Depends where u live in Sweden, if u live in southern Sweden could be winters with 1 or 2 snowfalls, and mild rest of the winter, i live in middle of Sweden right now its +12 and rain!
northern Norway or Sweden would be nice! Anything is better than the south west of the UK! Snow once every 5 years if we are lucky
@@dariangower3410 Damn that sucks guess i should stop complaining haha we get snow every winter sometimes it stays for long sometimes not.
Thanks Mark. I have noticed in my work outdoors that sometimes snowy spells come about three weeks apart with the second and third usually a bit more severe than the first. You have them about a month apart but it's the same idea. Thanks to your videos, work and reasarch I now know that's influenced a fair bit by the Madden -Julian Oscillation.
Great and informative update
How is the forecast for the alps?
Apols, missed your livestream! Nice update Mark, many thanks.
22:45 it is confusing sometimes because between SSTs and SOI atm conditions its the opposite, but yes in laniña conditions ENSO is negative in terms of SSTs but for the SOI, POSITIVE values indicate atmospheric laniña conditions (and so negative SOI values are sign of elniño). What is happening lately is that the atmospheric setup is very inconsistent with series of days alternating between + and - SOI which is preventing laniña to strengthen consistently. Likely it will be an ENSO neutral winter, although on the colder side. If the cold anomalies could settle on the eastern part of the pacific it would help the eastern US and europe to get colder weather, and it seems like it might be possible this year.
Hey Mark missed your livevstream but just been going through the video.
Think you had a very good overall forecast last year for Dec and Jan. As you say, Feb was out, but framkly trying to get a decent forecast 3 months away is probably not possible imo.
You've been getting good results from watching the MJO this year, and its clearly a strong teleconnection. I just wonder though if other factors will play a more dominant role over winter. In particularly in SSTs as I'm seeing quite a cool down from the extreme highs early this year. This may well be a readjustment, but there may also be other factors involved.
Anyway, many thanks for your channel and the winter forecast.
Best wishes
sorry i missed it live, thanks for your hard work, Mark, much appreciated..
Looks like the ice will melt with all this hot water in the sea. All those hot showers have to go somewhere.