He's from BlackRock one of the Companies that purchased 100s of Thousands of Single Family Homes . Drove up the Prices and then turned them into Rentals .
He's wrong again. Inflation is a monetary phenomenon. There will not be a soft landing. We need the Fed to get to 8% plus. There never was a "great moderation era". Low growth was systemic since 2009 because of demographics and wealth inequality. It was "moderated" by massive, unsustainable (hence inflation) and mistaken (we needed a recession in 2010, now it will be much worse) intervention into the housing market by the Fed, whose balance sheet is not 9 Trillion from 300 Billion in 2009, and federal US debt at 130% of GDP. These guys are delusional thinking they can control markets. Too much power, especially for Blackrock. Time to break them up and force them to leave the single family housing market.
@@johanisnotagamer people keep saying it because it's true, Japan to the contrary that keep multiplying the money supply but sinks further into deflation because they don't allow immigration and the demographics undermine demand. I bet you're someone who also thinks that bitcoin and blockchain are the same thing and a system can limit a currency to 12 million units?
No. The way to fix this mess is ditch the QT and rate hikes. Implement a change away from ESG junk to incenting North American resource sectors.....that's the supply side of the economy...
@@KT-zx9jr pumping 9 Trillion into the economy by the Fed Reserve while fiscal borrowing exceeded 1.2 Trillion a year starting in 2009 is why we have inflation. It took so long because the banks siphoned off many trillions to unscrew their balance sheets. We had low growth because there is no organic growth in the economy, and the public sector is batsh$$t crazy in pay and benefits...but that has caught up to us because debt is 130% of GDP. "Resource sectors" will not save us. Agriculture is about to hit a wall because the Ogallala aquifer is about to go dry. We should not be producing any ethanol because it takes 1.2 units of fossil fuels to produce a unit of ethanol. We should cease ALL agricultural subsidies. Cheaper gas and oil would help, but we are beyond that now, and the balance of trade is so out of balance that even oil isn't going to help.
@@theodorearaujo971 The lockdown policy led to excess stimulus and that explains a high percentage of the inflation combined with the terrible resource and supply side policies that have failed to incent investment into these areas. Look at the past several decades and normal supply side responses to the business cycle and guess what: no inflation....
He is going off TIPS spreads which is an estimate of inflation expectations in the bond market. Of course this measure is crap because the Fed owns a lot of TIPS. That means supply in that market is really fouled up and so is price (the rate). It has not been a good indicator of actual inflation we got down the road. For example if you took a 10 year TIPS in 2020. We have already had 85% of the inflation in 2 years it expected to have in 10 years.
No way has inflation peaked. For example, truck drivers have simply quit driving for fuel costs. The rates for delivery need to go much higher, and that needs to be baked into the new inflation cake. The Fed is so far behind inflation that it now is a self fulfilling prophecy. SP500 3200 here we come.
No, I don't believe in interest rates can directly affect. Fuel costs and other issues goes up not because of Fed printing . A supply problem is a supply problem. Shippers are driving up costs because they can and enjoying great profits...Global polarization and war etc etc. Oil producers jack up their prices...Indirectly by causing hardship, we get a recession which of course reduces demand and this signals producers to drop their prices. US will have to open up trade with CHina, reduce tariffs. Interest rates manipulation is plain dumb but it signals to the market, and it will become self fullfilling.
I think gas and food prices are not included in the CPI numbers? Even though higher gas price causes everything to go up they say it’s too volatile to add it to the inflation number.
Inflation is a measure of companies CEO and stakeholders increase worth overtime . Clearly they are placing themselves more worthy and valuable than the rest of society .
effect having the world shaped by supply forces --> trade off between inflation and output --> ex ante: stabilising inflation --> stabilising output --> now: stabillising inflation - high output volatility --> unlikey that the fed will engineer a soft landing; missing communication framework; rising rates will not be enough to get inflation down --> tightening monetary policy; inflation is peaking now but will be in the future far away from target inflation rate; financial crisis was a classic demand shock: reaction to tightening will be very different ---> this is a completely new regime, great moderation is behind us --> central banking much more difficult than in the past
Thumbs up if you think Central banks shouldn't worry about calibrating rates to a constraint of positive growth. Embrace the negative growth, Sometimes one needs to lance a boil. Just prepare for the coming out of it.
Inflation has more to do with China being on lock down than it does with interest rates. The rise of China is why we had 2% inflation for 2 decades. The dilution of the labor pool by exporting jobs to China kept the middle class down which kept inflation down. China has too much manufacturing today, it is time to diversify out of China and spread the manufacturing around to other large pop/low wage countries. India, Indonesia, Africa, ASEAN. So that one country failing does not effect the supply side so disproportionately.
Most of the shoes and clothes I buy today are made in Vietnam, and if they aren't, they're from Indonesia, Philippines, India, Bangladesh, or Pakistan.
I think they been doing that since 2018 when the trade war started. if anything this stupid net zero lock down going on in china accelerate the process even more. but it will take time, they have to rebuild an entire road map from zero.
Demand shocks can come undone...if NO ONE can afford your stuff. This could mean that Americans will have to stop driving Kenworth trucks with trainer wheels and start swapping them for something that takes up one lane instead of two. There's always things consumers can do to cut back
“If you stabilize inflation, you will not be able to stabilize output.” This is completely wrong: the reason to stabilize inflation is precisely to stabilize output.
This is getting at the core issue: an economy driven by the supply side. Yet he is still thinking about it in crude absolutes - Monetarism won’t work to finely tune production and consumption. First, we have foolishly exhausted accessible energy and resources, so we are shifting from abundance to scarcity. Maximizing output is irrational, as is driving up demand. Demand is not a monolith, we need demand management - to alleviate deprivation, while curbing over consumption. At the same time, industrial policy and supply management are necessary to focus on core needs: food, energy, housing. I would suggest the primary concern should not be the quantity of supply and demand in the economy, but the quality of supply and demand. Including stability, sustainability, waste, access, distribution, and entropy.
Who is Sean Yun that constantly comments in ALL CAPS on Bloomberg, always pushing gold, and Doom Times. The dude needs to get a grip, change his tune, and LEAVE.
It's not what this guy is saying, it's where was he all these years since 2009? First it was asset inflation because only certain people had access to easy money then it was helicopter money ... raise rates to reign in inflation as if that's possible. How do you raise rates like Volcker did at 32T of debt? As if it doesn't cost to refinance those bills. Long story short, given the way US politics is, it will be stagflation for many years.
The stocks with high floats that have hfs and institutions that hold shares in these companies are going to be hammered with the amount of selling that will take place and margin calls globally will be signalled for them. China has already had over 2300 ytd
Right about somethings, but inflation won't be much lower in 6mths. Food and gas will continue higher, especially food. God willing the asset bubble in real estate pops and we can rebuild the economy in a responsible way this time.
We can't allow the economy to grow due to 0% fed rates and trillion in handouts. The fed needs to set a responsible interest rate and government needs to stay out of the way.
Blackrock needs to support North American oil and gas as I am sure there are many North American fund holders and they work n invest n North America....
@@matsudakodo No, theyre buyg back stock, boosting divds, and payg down debt. Its great. The people pushing esg dont care abt the enviro. If they did, then tell me why they have 5 to 10 homes, fly private jets all the time, and have space shuttle launch companies....? Its all about making money off of financing green energy
The market was highly overcalibrated - this required a reset, as the existing "system" was quite frankly, unsustainable; 51% of traders knew this already. Especially those unscrupulous & irresponsible global banks, who've been effectively subsidising this critical mass, since the 80's at least! For those that know their economic history; read the Japanese economy of same time - just paying interest off, with what was essentially, an ineffective fiat Yen.
PRICE CONTROLS AND DEBT CEILINGS. NOW NOW NOW. Oh, NO! You're STALLING now. NOW, look. YOU'RE TOO LATE NOW. NOW IS YESTERDAY by now. SO DO THIS THING YESTERDAY!! RIGHT NOW!! NOW NOW NOW!!!!!! NOOOOWW NOW NOW. STOP THIS! NO more scroll-stalling, starting.... NOW. DON'T YOU MAKE ME COME OVER THERE, NOW!!
He's from BlackRock one of the Companies that purchased 100s of Thousands of Single Family Homes . Drove up the Prices and then turned them into Rentals .
Isn't that what all home developers are supposed to do?
This guy was also the head of the Swiss national Bank. I think he knows what he talks about.
@@thenon-gaapbillionaire3306 Blackrock aren't home developers.
@@sebfox2194 if you have money, you can be whatever you want to be, mate.
Very timely interview and extremely insightful - thank you 🙏🏻
He's wrong again. Inflation is a monetary phenomenon. There will not be a soft landing. We need the Fed to get to 8% plus. There never was a "great moderation era". Low growth was systemic since 2009 because of demographics and wealth inequality. It was "moderated" by massive, unsustainable (hence inflation) and mistaken (we needed a recession in 2010, now it will be much worse) intervention into the housing market by the Fed, whose balance sheet is not 9 Trillion from 300 Billion in 2009, and federal US debt at 130% of GDP. These guys are delusional thinking they can control markets. Too much power, especially for Blackrock. Time to break them up and force them to leave the single family housing market.
Inflation hasn't been monetary since the 70s. I don't know why people keep saying this.
@@johanisnotagamer people keep saying it because it's true, Japan to the contrary that keep multiplying the money supply but sinks further into deflation because they don't allow immigration and the demographics undermine demand. I bet you're someone who also thinks that bitcoin and blockchain are the same thing and a system can limit a currency to 12 million units?
No. The way to fix this mess is ditch the QT and rate hikes. Implement a change away from ESG junk to incenting North American resource sectors.....that's the supply side of the economy...
@@KT-zx9jr pumping 9 Trillion into the economy by the Fed Reserve while fiscal borrowing exceeded 1.2 Trillion a year starting in 2009 is why we have inflation. It took so long because the banks siphoned off many trillions to unscrew their balance sheets. We had low growth because there is no organic growth in the economy, and the public sector is batsh$$t crazy in pay and benefits...but that has caught up to us because debt is 130% of GDP. "Resource sectors" will not save us. Agriculture is about to hit a wall because the Ogallala aquifer is about to go dry. We should not be producing any ethanol because it takes 1.2 units of fossil fuels to produce a unit of ethanol. We should cease ALL agricultural subsidies. Cheaper gas and oil would help, but we are beyond that now, and the balance of trade is so out of balance that even oil isn't going to help.
@@theodorearaujo971 The lockdown policy led to excess stimulus and that explains a high percentage of the inflation combined with the terrible resource and supply side policies that have failed to incent investment into these areas. Look at the past several decades and normal supply side responses to the business cycle and guess what: no inflation....
Best interview among the many. Good job.
The trade off is the Quality of life for each person working double for less. Blackrock seems so darn accurate here. Well said.
how can he be so sure inflation will be significantly lower in 6 months? I can't really see the reason
He is going off TIPS spreads which is an estimate of inflation expectations in the bond market. Of course this measure is crap because the Fed owns a lot of TIPS. That means supply in that market is really fouled up and so is price (the rate). It has not been a good indicator of actual inflation we got down the road. For example if you took a 10 year TIPS in 2020. We have already had 85% of the inflation in 2 years it expected to have in 10 years.
Good interview
No way has inflation peaked. For example, truck drivers have simply quit driving for fuel costs. The rates for delivery need to go much higher, and that needs to be baked into the new inflation cake. The Fed is so far behind inflation that it now is a self fulfilling prophecy. SP500 3200 here we come.
No, I don't believe in interest rates can directly affect. Fuel costs and other issues goes up not because of Fed printing . A supply problem is a supply problem. Shippers are driving up costs because they can and enjoying great profits...Global polarization and war etc etc. Oil producers jack up their prices...Indirectly by causing hardship, we get a recession which of course reduces demand and this signals producers to drop their prices. US will have to open up trade with CHina, reduce tariffs. Interest rates manipulation is plain dumb but it signals to the market, and it will become self fullfilling.
How about S&P to 2500? We are just down to Pre-Covid levels and it was already overvalued 20-30%. I’ll start nibbling at 3200 though , but slowly
I think gas and food prices are not included in the CPI numbers? Even though higher gas price causes everything to go up they say it’s too volatile to add it to the inflation number.
once enron had the biggest liars in the room, now blackrock's got'em
I just laugh every time i hear the term “soft landing”. Clever propaganda whoever came up with that BS
Inflation is a measure of companies CEO and stakeholders increase worth overtime .
Clearly they are placing themselves more worthy and valuable than the rest of society .
effect having the world shaped by supply forces --> trade off between inflation and output --> ex ante: stabilising inflation --> stabilising output --> now: stabillising inflation - high output volatility --> unlikey that the fed will engineer a soft landing; missing communication framework; rising rates will not be enough to get inflation down --> tightening monetary policy; inflation is peaking now but will be in the future far away from target inflation rate; financial crisis was a classic demand shock: reaction to tightening will be very different ---> this is a completely new regime, great moderation is behind us --> central banking much more difficult than in the past
The fed declared an unconditional fight against inflation this week. So it’s possible they have already chosen. God speed!
He is wrong, he is not accounting China Taiwan war and supply chain distribution
yes...there are alot of balls in the air
@@vincealv3567 including his own !!
No one can see into the future
I actually agree with this guy, high interest rates will kill out put of all goods which will in turn increase inflation.
No
If that was your interpretation, I suggest you go back and listen. Because you and he, are not on the same page.
@@jimbojimbo6873 If you have excess product the price will go down. To end this recession and inflation we need to drill and pump more oil.
A new regium. We will see how long this one lasts.
Thumbs up if you think Central banks shouldn't worry about calibrating rates to a constraint of positive growth. Embrace the negative growth, Sometimes one needs to lance a boil. Just prepare for the coming out of it.
“Great moderation” 😂
Great super bubble is over.
It's monetary inflation. Get a grip.
Inflation has more to do with China being on lock down than it does with interest rates. The rise of China is why we had 2% inflation for 2 decades. The dilution of the labor pool by exporting jobs to China kept the middle class down which kept inflation down.
China has too much manufacturing today, it is time to diversify out of China and spread the manufacturing around to other large pop/low wage countries. India, Indonesia, Africa, ASEAN. So that one country failing does not effect the supply side so disproportionately.
Most of the shoes and clothes I buy today are made in Vietnam, and if they aren't, they're from Indonesia, Philippines, India, Bangladesh, or Pakistan.
I think they been doing that since 2018 when the trade war started. if anything this stupid net zero lock down going on in china accelerate the process even more. but it will take time, they have to rebuild an entire road map from zero.
Really dont think we are at the hight of inflation with all the global issues in the EU and China still ongoing.
Demand shocks can come undone...if NO ONE can afford your stuff. This could mean that Americans will have to stop driving Kenworth trucks with trainer wheels and start swapping them for something that takes up one lane instead of two. There's always things consumers can do to cut back
The government gave Wallstreet to much power.
“If you stabilize inflation, you will not be able to stabilize output.” This is completely wrong: the reason to stabilize inflation is precisely to stabilize output.
Exactly. He calls the great moderation over because that way one won’t totally call him out on the ridiculous point he is actually making
he needs to be in prison
This is getting at the core issue: an economy driven by the supply side. Yet he is still thinking about it in crude absolutes - Monetarism won’t work to finely tune production and consumption. First, we have foolishly exhausted accessible energy and resources, so we are shifting from abundance to scarcity. Maximizing output is irrational, as is driving up demand. Demand is not a monolith, we need demand management - to alleviate deprivation, while curbing over consumption. At the same time, industrial policy and supply management are necessary to focus on core needs: food, energy, housing. I would suggest the primary concern should not be the quantity of supply and demand in the economy, but the quality of supply and demand. Including stability, sustainability, waste, access, distribution, and entropy.
Overestimated middle market means a unbalanced market as a "market participant"
Inflation won’t peak until after the summer so hang in there people.
I just heard 12 opinions. I’m sure one of them will hit the nail on the head. Should roll two sixes and pick the one with the sum on those dices.
This recession is government made with inaction.
Interest rates aren't the issue and will only cause problems
Why is that guy still employed, let alone interviewed? Clearly incompetent.
Ah OK, sure, some random internet dude thinks the former head of the Swiss national Bank is incompetent. Got it. Thank you for the warning.
Who is Sean Yun that constantly comments in ALL CAPS on Bloomberg, always pushing gold, and Doom Times. The dude needs to get a grip, change his tune, and LEAVE.
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The problem is with ESG policies....end the QT policy and replace ESG with incenting oil n gas and resource to invest n North America.....
If it weren't for oil and gas (and coal) we would have never needed ESG.
Goofball. Big part of the problem
It's not what this guy is saying, it's where was he all these years since 2009? First it was asset inflation because only certain people had access to easy money then it was helicopter money ... raise rates to reign in inflation as if that's possible. How do you raise rates like Volcker did at 32T of debt? As if it doesn't cost to refinance those bills. Long story short, given the way US politics is, it will be stagflation for many years.
If traders must alter their approach to the markets so must the fed. What worked before may not work again
Jeez, there appears to be a bunch of nut jobs on this comment site! Gold, crypto, end times...
he is a lier & he doesn't know
The stocks with high floats that have hfs and institutions that hold shares in these companies are going to be hammered with the amount of selling that will take place and margin calls globally will be signalled for them. China has already had over 2300 ytd
Het die Auti wieder äs Devise Gschäftli abgschlossä?
This guy is talking his book - blackrock needs to be broken up. Dump ESG and watch supply expand again - these clowns want to own everything
this is all uncharted water ...dont think we are safer than in 08
Oh it's a lot worse than 2008. Wait and see, wait and see....
This lady sounds so panicked relax
Lacqua is a madwoman
Right about somethings, but inflation won't be much lower in 6mths. Food and gas will continue higher, especially food. God willing the asset bubble in real estate pops and we can rebuild the economy in a responsible way this time.
We can't allow the economy to grow due to 0% fed rates and trillion in handouts. The fed needs to set a responsible interest rate and government needs to stay out of the way.
Blackrock needs to support North American oil and gas as I am sure there are many North American fund holders and they work n invest n North America....
94% of American oil & gas is private and they are increasing dividends and stock buybacks to cash in. They aren't ramping up production.
@@matsudakodo No, theyre buyg back stock, boosting divds, and payg down debt. Its great. The people pushing esg dont care abt the enviro. If they did, then tell me why they have 5 to 10 homes, fly private jets all the time, and have space shuttle launch companies....? Its all about making money off of financing green energy
Is he spewing his own opinions or his wishes? Buy the dip and buy more real estate, Blackrock 😆
Always has been
Why is RUclips auto playing shit I never watch....MSM finance nonsense
I'm not buying his argument. Too much gobbledygook, not enough clarity.
Exactly what does he mean when he says "this regime is different"? What regime?
BS! Of course he wants the market higher and higher and higher. Even if real economy is ruined.
The market was highly overcalibrated - this required a reset, as the existing "system" was quite frankly, unsustainable; 51% of traders knew this already.
Especially those unscrupulous & irresponsible global banks, who've been effectively subsidising this critical mass, since the 80's at least!
For those that know their economic history; read the Japanese economy of same time - just paying interest off, with what was essentially, an ineffective fiat Yen.
@mestredosderivativos oq o Sr disse a noite!
3:00 we will get cumulatively get fewer interest rate hikes because the cost will be too high
The great reset in effects
PRICE CONTROLS AND DEBT CEILINGS. NOW NOW NOW.
Oh, NO! You're STALLING now.
NOW, look. YOU'RE TOO LATE NOW. NOW IS YESTERDAY by now.
SO DO THIS THING YESTERDAY!! RIGHT NOW!! NOW NOW NOW!!!!!!
NOOOOWW NOW NOW.
STOP THIS! NO more scroll-stalling, starting....
NOW.
DON'T YOU MAKE ME COME OVER THERE, NOW!!