please include the stock price on your valuation page - the numbers are meaningless without it - Now I ahve to go back two months to see where QCOM was trading at and try to guess what it was on the day you recorded this
Very interesting video! I share your criteria. I think that after the pandemic, where everyone has bought new equipment for working from home (cell phones, computers, etc.) we now see a decrease in demand in most, if not all, semiconductor companies. In those you design (like QCOM), those who make (like TSM), and those who make machines (like ASML). But this should not last forever, at some point people will renew their cell phones, computers, cars, refrigerators, etc. Plus other new segments like AI, Cloud, etc. that increasingly require more and more advanced semiconductors. Perhaps it is time to take advantage of certain quality companies such as QCOM to go and acquire companies, as the demand will pick up, not now, but in a while. I can't imagine a world without semiconductors. Greetings and thanks!
Hey Sepo! It is interesting the market is discounting that future demand so much, huh? You are right, it does look increasingly likely that QCOM will have to wait until 2024 for a rebound. And in the meantime, its still those fab equipment cos, ASML in particular this year, that are still growing like crazy to help feed that future demand. Us patient investors will eventually reap the rewards!
Thanks for analysis, good job. Hey i noted you said autos is the ket growth driver to watch. But i was wondering if actually the key one to watch is IOT. Why? PCs just have to transition to ARM architechture or be left in the dust by Apple. I dont think MSFT would want that so its working hard with QCOM to get Windows on ARM. CEO has said that the new Oryon CPU for PC tests as good as Apple's M1 and that OEMs are now sampling for 2024 production. This could be huge. PC on x86 is just pathetic battery life. If Oryon gets deployed by the OEMs, QCOM will be looking at a very large market to take (Intel's and AMD loss). What do you think of this angle? Is Windows on ARM ever going to take off? Would love to hear your thoughts. Might be worth a full video on this topic.
Hey there Joshua, thank you for your comment! IoT, specifically Windows on ARM, is indeed one of the reasons we like Qualcomm so much for the long term. Nick has written about it numerous times. He called it out early last year before this was little more than a rumor. We've covered this in videos as well, but it's been a few months, and have not done a video dedicated to this point. Nick can speak on this matter pretty easily, so we'll drop a quick update video on it tomorrow. Thanks!
Hi Steven! Here is the link to the Investor Relations page for Qualcomm. The slides are from in the Q2 FY 2022 and Q2 FY 2023. The charts and data visuals are from Mainstreet Data: mainstreetdata.com/subscription?via=chipstockinvestor
People selling QCOM as if smartphones are not coming back and 6G is not a thing :). Btw I like their diversified business much better as it shapes up. Also 20% staff cuts in the SoC declining division is a good cost control measure.
@@chipstockinvestor Among the American comms companies this is the most technologically advanced and with a patent portfolio and R&D that can match what the Chinese (Huawei) is coming up with. I would say given the current situation that it is a strategically essential company for the US together with Intel.
Hey, as always, great presentation, detailed video. Very enjoyable to watch. I much appreciate your work and effort. hey, I have a question, perhaps an unfair question, but still: How do you compare AVGO vs. QCOM, if you had to only pick one who would you pick? I'm not asking that as 'advise' but more to get your pros/cons on each and see how you approach it. I am comparing QCOM to AVGO because AVGO bid to buy QCOM a few yrs ago, which didn't take place. Personally I feel the AVGO is more diversified, and probably a less risky business, but it "feels" like a long term opportunity with QCOM at this level may be better. How do you see it? Thanks much in advance!
Hey Sagig, that would be an interesting "X vs Y" video once AVGO reports its latest quarter. As for the current differences, you nailed it. QCOM is the extreme value stock right now, assuming it stabilizes by the end of this year. AVGO is no longer a value, given it's still growing. And it is perhaps a bit more diversified, especially given the large software segment they have. That new Jericho-3 chip also has AVGO riding some of the current AI hype, which makes me a bit nervous. We own both, but QCOM is what we're currently adding to at the moment. But not expecting much in the way of big performance from QCOM until late this year, if not 2024.
@@chipstockinvestor Much appreciating you taking the time to reply to as (as you did before). I agree with you, I feel exactly the same way. Personally I would prefer AVGO between the two, but at the moment QCOM may be a better buy, I'm not sure. Depending on the risk tolerance. I feel the VMWare aquisition is a game changer for AVGO if goes through. It will accelerate their growth for many years. If you can do a X vs Y video as you said - that will be terrific. Either way, love the channel and thanks again for your reply.
Look what is going on with phones trade in from Google , Apple and Samsung, don't be surprised if they start give phones for free in 5-10 years just to keep you in ecosystem ( to show ad ) and they all have own chips
@@chipstockinvestor i looked at some market stats, although total android usage is still going up yoy, the problem is that the used market is supplying the phones not the new market. Hence, sales are down for QCOM despite android growth. This is a problem for them, but eventually those used phones will have to be upgraded so you could see a very large sales upcycle in 2024.
Indeed, my earnings outlook for the rest of this year isn't great either, as broken down in the video. Beyond 2023, I look at avg Wall Street analyst earnings estimates, and my outlook diverges considerably.
The chance of Wall Street analysts being right is just slightly higher than 50%. And who are they? Who needs them? Who pays them? They are not on your side bro. If analysts are skeptical, the chances are general public like you fear more than necessary and stock is undervalued
Why QCOM doesn't get love from wall street like AMD /NVIDIA despite being at fire front of all Gs of wireless communication and expanding into IOT, auto, AI, nuvia (arm pcs)? Will QCOM acquisition be to big for Apple given they may get cellular patent portfolio, Auto, IOT, AI, nuvia, RFFE? Wouldn't that be a one of a kind vertical integration for Apple iPhone, iPad, watch and Apple car😊?
please include the stock price on your valuation page - the numbers are meaningless without it - Now I ahve to go back two months to see where QCOM was trading at and try to guess what it was on the day you recorded this
Thanks for covering QCOM! Saving it to watch after work :)
You're welcome Marko! Thanks for watching!
Very interesting video! I share your criteria. I think that after the pandemic, where everyone has bought new equipment for working from home (cell phones, computers, etc.) we now see a decrease in demand in most, if not all, semiconductor companies. In those you design (like QCOM), those who make (like TSM), and those who make machines (like ASML). But this should not last forever, at some point people will renew their cell phones, computers, cars, refrigerators, etc. Plus other new segments like AI, Cloud, etc. that increasingly require more and more advanced semiconductors. Perhaps it is time to take advantage of certain quality companies such as QCOM to go and acquire companies, as the demand will pick up, not now, but in a while. I can't imagine a world without semiconductors. Greetings and thanks!
Hey Sepo! It is interesting the market is discounting that future demand so much, huh? You are right, it does look increasingly likely that QCOM will have to wait until 2024 for a rebound. And in the meantime, its still those fab equipment cos, ASML in particular this year, that are still growing like crazy to help feed that future demand. Us patient investors will eventually reap the rewards!
Thanks for analysis, good job. Hey i noted you said autos is the ket growth driver to watch. But i was wondering if actually the key one to watch is IOT. Why? PCs just have to transition to ARM architechture or be left in the dust by Apple. I dont think MSFT would want that so its working hard with QCOM to get Windows on ARM. CEO has said that the new Oryon CPU for PC tests as good as Apple's M1 and that OEMs are now sampling for 2024 production. This could be huge. PC on x86 is just pathetic battery life. If Oryon gets deployed by the OEMs, QCOM will be looking at a very large market to take (Intel's and AMD loss). What do you think of this angle? Is Windows on ARM ever going to take off? Would love to hear your thoughts. Might be worth a full video on this topic.
Hey there Joshua, thank you for your comment!
IoT, specifically Windows on ARM, is indeed one of the reasons we like Qualcomm so much for the long term. Nick has written about it numerous times. He called it out early last year before this was little more than a rumor. We've covered this in videos as well, but it's been a few months, and have not done a video dedicated to this point. Nick can speak on this matter pretty easily, so we'll drop a quick update video on it tomorrow. Thanks!
@@chipstockinvestor awesome, thanks for your reply
Thank you for the video! Could you tell me where I can find that Infoemarion that you showed us?
Hi Steven! Here is the link to the Investor Relations page for Qualcomm. The slides are from in the Q2 FY 2022 and Q2 FY 2023. The charts and data visuals are from Mainstreet Data: mainstreetdata.com/subscription?via=chipstockinvestor
People selling QCOM as if smartphones are not coming back and 6G is not a thing :). Btw I like their diversified business much better as it shapes up. Also 20% staff cuts in the SoC declining division is a good cost control measure.
The selloff does seem a bit exaggerated doesn't it?
@@chipstockinvestor Among the American comms companies this is the most technologically advanced and with a patent portfolio and R&D that can match what the Chinese (Huawei) is coming up with. I would say given the current situation that it is a strategically essential company for the US together with Intel.
Thanks a lot
Stock based compensation is also eating a little bet if the pie
Worth monitoring for sure, but at this point share buybacks more than offset stock-based comp. Thanks for weighing in!
Hey, as always, great presentation, detailed video. Very enjoyable to watch. I much appreciate your work and effort. hey, I have a question, perhaps an unfair question, but still: How do you compare AVGO vs. QCOM, if you had to only pick one who would you pick? I'm not asking that as 'advise' but more to get your pros/cons on each and see how you approach it. I am comparing QCOM to AVGO because AVGO bid to buy QCOM a few yrs ago, which didn't take place. Personally I feel the AVGO is more diversified, and probably a less risky business, but it "feels" like a long term opportunity with QCOM at this level may be better. How do you see it? Thanks much in advance!
Hey Sagig, that would be an interesting "X vs Y" video once AVGO reports its latest quarter.
As for the current differences, you nailed it. QCOM is the extreme value stock right now, assuming it stabilizes by the end of this year.
AVGO is no longer a value, given it's still growing. And it is perhaps a bit more diversified, especially given the large software segment they have. That new Jericho-3 chip also has AVGO riding some of the current AI hype, which makes me a bit nervous.
We own both, but QCOM is what we're currently adding to at the moment. But not expecting much in the way of big performance from QCOM until late this year, if not 2024.
@@chipstockinvestor Much appreciating you taking the time to reply to as (as you did before). I agree with you, I feel exactly the same way. Personally I would prefer AVGO between the two, but at the moment QCOM may be a better buy, I'm not sure. Depending on the risk tolerance. I feel the VMWare aquisition is a game changer for AVGO if goes through. It will accelerate their growth for many years. If you can do a X vs Y video as you said - that will be terrific. Either way, love the channel and thanks again for your reply.
What is the best cybersecurity company for you?
We will actually do an update on one of our favorites next week. Stay tuned.
But here's the last cybersecurity update we did...
ruclips.net/video/2-grGKNI_Lc/видео.html
Look what is going on with phones trade in from Google , Apple and Samsung, don't be surprised if they start give phones for free in 5-10 years just to keep you in ecosystem ( to show ad ) and they all have own chips
It is ugly out there in the smartphone market right now. Excess Android inventory is making those ASPs tank.
@@chipstockinvestor i looked at some market stats, although total android usage is still going up yoy, the problem is that the used market is supplying the phones not the new market. Hence, sales are down for QCOM despite android growth. This is a problem for them, but eventually those used phones will have to be upgraded so you could see a very large sales upcycle in 2024.
This is the perfect time to build into it. Not a flashy stock but huge potential
Exactly, not flashy at all. We kinda like it that way!
Thanks for sharing. 👍
Thanks for the support Chris!
Future EPS estimates by Wall Street analysts don’t look good. I’m not optimistic about Qualcomm (in the near future) although I have a long position.
Indeed, my earnings outlook for the rest of this year isn't great either, as broken down in the video. Beyond 2023, I look at avg Wall Street analyst earnings estimates, and my outlook diverges considerably.
The chance of Wall Street analysts being right is just slightly higher than 50%. And who are they? Who needs them? Who pays them? They are not on your side bro. If analysts are skeptical, the chances are general public like you fear more than necessary and stock is undervalued
Why QCOM doesn't get love from wall street like AMD /NVIDIA despite being at fire front of all Gs of wireless communication and expanding into IOT, auto, AI, nuvia (arm pcs)?
Will QCOM acquisition be to big for Apple given they may get cellular patent portfolio, Auto, IOT, AI, nuvia, RFFE? Wouldn't that be a one of a kind vertical integration for Apple iPhone, iPad, watch and Apple car😊?
Yeah market has left QCOM for dead. Their mistake!
I'm sure a tech giant would love to acquire QCOM, but it would never get past regulators!
No one cares
Our handsets work just fine from 3yrs ago