Russia's Winter Offensive & The War in Ukraine - The Initiative, losses, & air, sea & land campaigns
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- Опубликовано: 28 май 2024
- Even as global attention is pulled in a dozen different directions, the fighting in Ukraine continues amidst a winter cold that provides better conditions than the mud seasons. .
Russia's offensive has focused on Avidiivka, but fighting has been hard at multiple places along the front.
In this episode, we look at the recent fighting, from Avidiivka to the great Patriot missile road trip, examine the available loss data, look into the question of casualties and mobilisation (including some Sergei Shoigu math) and close out by touching on the wider sustainability issues probably deserve further discussion.
Patreon:
/ perunau
Relevant Reading/sourcing
Putin on intention to achieve all military goals
tass.com/politics/1723935
www.theguardian.com/world/202...
Credit to @naalsio26 for localising visually confirmed losses
Russian military size increases
www.reuters.com/world/europe/...
www.reuters.com/world/europe/...
Shoigu giving Shoigu numbers
tass.com/defense/1723781
Putin giving Putin numbers
kyivindependent.com/putin-cla...
The lostarmor site referenced for loss analysis
lostarmour.info/minusov-net
The Bradley engagement mentioned
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024...
www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone...
Ukraine Su-34 claim
www.bbc.com/news/world-europe...
Jan 24 missile attacks
www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1...
December 23 missile attacks
apnews.com/article/russia-ukr...
DPRK shipments to Russia
www.japantimes.co.jp/news/202...
Featured image of Koalitsiya
defence-blog.com/russia-deplo...
Jamestown foundation on Russian military recruitment
jamestown.org/program/russias...
Example of volunteer units signing contracts
www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/0...
Reference to UA casualty estimates
www.reuters.com/world/us-inte...
Ropucha getting hit
www.navalnews.com/naval-news/...
Ukraine drone strikes
www.reuters.com/world/fire-er...
www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1...
www.reuters.com/world/europe/....
www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-u...
Reporting on UA EW
www.businessinsider.com/ukrai...
Reporting on possible incursion into Polish airspace
www.theguardian.com/world/202...
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply.
In particular - I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Opening Words
00:00:47 - What Am I Talking About?
00:01:20 - The Winter Offensives
00:10:10 - Equipment Losses
00:20:27 - Adaptations And Observations
00:27:17 - The Black Sea Theatre
00:33:25 - The Air War
00:50:18 - Manpower And Mobilisation
01:01:39 - Notes On Resupply
01:06:37 - Conclusion
01:07:08 - Channel Update
In preparing this episode, the greatest challenge I had was trying to make sure that points that don't fit together in a clean narrative were brought together. For example, it's possible at the same time for Russian losses somewhere like Avdiivka to be heavy, but the pressure on the defenders to be extreme and the future highly uncertain. It's also possible for neither side to be close to achieving their territorial war goals, but for the war to not be in a sustainable stalemate, and it's possible for Russia/the West/your power of choice have extensive resources, but not infinite ones.
It's why I'm so thankful for the 60 minute format where I can get the data out front, and why I am so grateful for the fact all of you engage with the long form every week.
Thank you again, and I'll see you again next week.
Thanks for the video, Perun!
Perun, you've never missed once. Your videos are fantastic, and the interspersed Aussie humor is top notch! Always a pleasure, friend, and many thanks to you and any teammates for all your hard work!
Perun is a better teacher than 70% US school's teacher
Hi Perun, I can't wait for our grandkids to say why you're watching that old war on the History Channel. Then we should know everything.
@@sya_7489 he's a liar
"Generally, destroyed aircraft do underperform in the ground strike role compared to the intact ones" - Perun, 2024
I f'in love this guy.
**Adds to list of Perun-isms**
Or the exotic coral reef that once was a Russian warship!
Perun is a fountain of wisdom.
The local weather forecast shifts to a 90% chance of high explosive rain
What's so funny about it? I don't get it.
"The unmanned warfare equivalent to tea-bagging your opponent and then publishing the replay" Lol I died. This man has a gift for words
I find his attempts at sarcasm kind of tiresome actually
Perunner, is talking about Ukrainians need to fight as the Finish did, during the Winter War, against the Russians, and waves of attacking Orc's!😮
@@Tom_QuixoteYou'll live
@@Tom_Quixote Take a nap, baby.
You're very much in the minority. @@Tom_Quixote
Being your oldest fan(nearing 70 years old)... I've watched war reporting since the Vietnam War when I was in grade school. Your analytical evaluation, along with your humility of stating you're not sure of the accuracy of some of the sources, is the best evaluation of this war and one of the very few I greatly trust. Thank You so much🙏
Not quite the oldest!
It sure beats an obnoxious anchor ⚓ on CNN yapping away.
Dabdallah55
Your just a spring chicken in the big scheme of things
Not the olsest I'm afraid. I remember having to register for the drafy in '69
I actually just recently turned 70 so you are at best his second oldest fan, but stay alive long enough and you might get the title kiddo.
Doing a drive-by with the Patriot missile system is the most baller thing I've heard of in my life
I suspect there's a fair few in the US Army going 'You shouldn't use it like that!' Probably followed by 'Actually, maybe we should take a closer look at this...'
@@gwtpictgwtpict4214 one thing I respect US military for is their willingness to learn. They may dismiss a crazy idea at first,but once they see it work, they start using it themselves.
All the money in the world won't buy you knowledge and creativity.
@@sowiwiody3681 That was jet engines in a nutshell the US airforce wrote them off until they saw what the British were doing.
Well they did not learn much in Afghanistan.@@sowiwiody3681
Patriot can not even shoot mach 4 - 5 missiles, nor 6 - 7, and mach 10 - 11, and what about mach 27 reentry ?
Just as a point of order, for a very brief amount of time a destroyed aircraft _can_ outperform a non-destroyed one in the ground attack role. But only once, and its notoriously difficult to aim.
The Japanese put their all in this doctrine.
@@No-ln8wb And it worked. Not enough to make them win of course, but their Kamikaze performed better than regular aircraft.
Nothing outperforms the internet. You can say anything on the internet for 1000 times and it becomes the truth. Worked in ww2.
@@wedgeantilles8575Ah, but you see, those aircraft were generally not destroyed until AFTER they were aimed at their targets. This greatly reduces that difficulty in aiming mentioned above.
@@fungames24 Uhm. Care to rephrase that? I mean, we know what you probably meant, but as written it parses to "saying things on the internet 1000 times worked in ww2". Let me quote Abraham Lincoln at you: "don't believe everything you see on the Internet" 😆
Here I sit the day before finally returning to the war again for my 2nd tour of service for Ukraine watching perun as I have done since the start and as usual perun delivers, if I don't get the chance again I want to say thank you sir for your videos I love your work slava ukraini
Good luck bro. God bless you.
@@raz_hz thank you bro same to you
God bless you and your companions.
So many folks in the US, especially people like me with Ukrainian roots, are still pushing our politicians to do their jobs and support Ukraine. Folks like me are enraged at the politics in the country that hinder our ability to help.
Good luck mate, I’m hoping that collectively the world can do a better job supporting you than has happened in 2023.
I am 50% sure that "Math with Sergei Shoigu" Is an actual russian children's television show.
If you had grown up with those you'd be 283% sure that "Math with Sergei Shoigu" was an actual Russian children's television show.
“Destroyed aircraft generally underperform in the ground attack role compared to intact aircraft.”
Woah, hot take there buddy.
😊
How does it feel to be stupid enough that a simple sarcasm like this goes right over your head?
They could try ramming speed, that's a good trick.
They do however serve quite a lot better in the ground impact role, although only one time.
A request: in future maps would it be possible to use colours other than red and green to denote territory held (or indeed anything)? If you are colour blind these are the most likely colours to get mixed up. Which makes it a real shame that they are also the most likely colours to choose to mean something opposite to each other.
In case you’re wondering, Perun, google suggests blue/orange, blue/red, and blue/brown for colorblind friendly maps! Cheers.
this is a really helpful suggestion. sorry for the oversight.
@@Tecmaster96 @PerunAU This is also what our university course though. Further additions are to make sure the overall brightness of the two colours are not the same or do a pattern on one of the two colours (but that comes with the big disadvantage of hiding bits of the map)
Appreciate it!
Work in gis color blind is something we always account for.
As far as territories defined by Russian law, Russia does not occupy a single square kilometer of Ukrainian soil, while Ukraine holds wide swaths of Russian territory in four of their oblasts!
This is of course viewed from the nonsensical russian perspective and... obviously written tongue-in-cheek!
Just as OSCE is supervising elections in in so called Kosovo state and Helsinki charter was about non violent change of the borders in Europe haha, welcome to the world of narcisstic gaslighters in power and their "rules" .
True, which also means that Russian government is in the peculiar condition of actively waging war against their own territorial holdings.
C'est là qu'est la fourberie et perfidie de Poutine ,
car il peut prétendre , du fait de ces/ses décrets d'annexion ,
que la Russie défend ses territoires.
Et par conséquent y envoyer ses appelés.
Sous entendre que l'Ukraine occupe une partie de ces territoires occupés, ne peut que lui apporter de l'eau au moulin , et le renforcer dans sa propagande de désinformation.
Il est impératif que la communauté internationale ne reconnaissent jamais ces annexions.
Et que les soutiens économique et matériels a l'Ukraine ne cessent pas.
Slave Ukraine 🇺🇦🇨🇵🇺🇦
It really isnt weird from their perspective, they can just call it a liberation of territories that have freely decided to join them. Between all the idiocies of russian propaganda this one thing is actually internally consistent... as long as you accept that territory under ukrainian control appearently participated in a russian referendum to join russia.@@ElijsDima
Sounds way worse from a Russian legal standpoint
There's something about watching a newly minted Perun video and seeing the minutes since it's upload tick by but still be less than the length of the video, so you know as you watch it the entire community is there watching it alongside you. Sunday's are such a treat.
Yep, views went up by over 20k in the time I took to listen to the episode
Pitler, is as always trying to drive wedges, into EU and NATO alliances! 😮It's definitely hard to believe Putin's this stupid, but his attack on Ukraine definitely a sign of senility, and being out of touch with basic economic & military maths!
(Crazy is, as crazy does?)
Where do you get your numbers? The Ukrainian Ministry of defense? These are not even close to accurate my friend. Try a less pro Ukrainian source. It's funny to me how you hear people make jokes about Putin or Russian capabilities. Russia has dominated this conflict since early on. The casualty rate speaks for itself. Russia has lost 30-50k, Ukraine has lost 400-500!!! The way uninformed people make comments like Ukraine is going to win or Ukraine has the moral high ground is a joke. Let me clear it up for you...Ukraine is fighting and dying by the thousands as they are being used by the West as cannon fodder to weaken Russia and replace Russia in the oil and gas market. Simple as that! Not Russian aggression, or warmongering, but greed! The poor Russian and Ukrainian people are fighting a proxy war that neither side will recover from for decades if not longer. So when you make jokes and push false numbers to try to hide your pro Ukrainian position at least be aware of the truth yourself.
Yes ! Great time to be alive in it? 🤓Yea ? 🤨
Who'd have thought hour long power points would be appointment viewing.
After the military I never thought I would like PowerPoint again, then I found Perun
It's the dry humor for me, reminds me of my platoon medic doing his CLS classes
It's just as bad in industry. Middle-management jargon. When Perun starts reading the slides verbatim, we'll know he has been replaced by AI.
@@totallynototanmp4353Perun makes it interesting by not just reading it word for word off the screen
I mean tbf, its less his PP and more his dry humour, no? Your CO probably is just... dry.
@@jxh02a Perun flavored AI might be pretty damned funny.
Bonus points for the Solaris VII reference!
Truly a man of culture.
Reactor: Online
Sensors: Online
Weapons: Online
All systems: Online
Need to pay George Ledoux to commentate the footage as Duncan Fischer
@@logion567 - I still have "All Systems: Nominal" living rent free in my head.
Please do a crossover with Tex 😂
Perun’s content is genuinely more entertaining and useful than some of my uni lectures
that does NOT make me want to go to uni 😭
Well ... is that really saying much, though?
Then maybe you need to go to a better university? Sounds like you’re getting scammed
@@TheGrace020 Do yourself a favor, and don't write off vocational education. I went from vocational to uni, and while I really enjoyed my time at uni, vocational was really more my cup of tea.
@@TheGrace020probably only applies to political science. Uni is actually useful if you are doing something that is in demand and cannot legally be done by laymen
"A duel between two Bradleys and a T-90M that looked like something out of Solaris 7."
For those who know the reverence, that's *very* descriptive. Also nostalgic.
Two of the 30 they got left. The tank was destroyed by drones not the Bradleys. Now Ukraine want to mobilize 500.000 according to the questionable sources here. I wonder where they will get 80.0000 vehicles for them. They are already short. Russia can just keep bringing them in from their reserves that Ukraine has depleted.
@@oletoustrup8572”2 of the 30 they got left”
Ukraine got gifted about 200 bradleys by the USA
66 confirmed destroyed/damaged/abandoned, we’ll assume all destroyed best case scenario and say a handful of them were destroyed off camera.
It is unlikely that more than 80-90 bradleys were lost in the best case scenario.
So they have 100+ Bradleys fully operational without a scratch, not 30.
100 of those are used for training and spare parts.@@MyName-lq7rv So they have two completely useless companies left that will suffer the same fate as the rest. So no they don´t have 100 without a scratch. They only ome without a scratch are used for training and spare parts.
If it was so simple that they could just be handled 200 and use them all. 100 of them are used for training, repairing etc. Tracked vehicles break down all the all time. 10-15% will always be out for maintanence, so their logistics have a huge burdon just keeping the Bradleys going. If they can´t keep up with that they constantly get fewer for operational use. They now have about 30 left untill more can be towed behind the lines for repairs and meanwhile more will need repairs. They got a logistical nightmare in Ukraine having received 40 different kinds of foreign vehicles with in strucktion manuals in foreign languages and they don´t get more mechanics.
I think they have scores of otherwise operational vehicles waiting but not in use because the burdon is too great.
Even if they had had 200 operational if would not change anything.
Just imagine how much time it takes to tow a damages vehicle fron the front to a repair hub far behind the lines.
There is no winning a war in Russia´s backyard.
@@MyName-lq7rv
You find USA a reliable source ? What source ? Are you also turning to TASS for Russian casualties ? It is not less naive.@@MyName-lq7rv Why should it be unlikely that 90 of them are out of actio but not 66 ? What source for that have you turned to ? That means that they lost less than one each day.
10 to 15% of tracked vehicles are always out of action for repairs and the Ukrainin mechanics are inexperienced. So if they can keep up with 12 % every day they get less even without the vehicles beingbeyond repair. And they have received 40 other kinds of vehicles that they don´t have any experience with either. Russia only need to let time do its job and exhaust the Ukrainian army and people are already sick of hearing about Zelensky. 100 fully operational. Pleeease. They probably got 50 waiting for repairs and several abandond. So we are very far from 100 operational vehicles. The situation will be similar with all the other 40 vehicles. You can´t just dumb 40 different infamiliar vehicles on an army and expet them to cope. Everytime that happens Ukraine de facto get less mechanics.
There's a non-zero chance that this one guy produces more accurate analysis than the entire Russian army.
I fully believe that one of Shoigu's assistants has to be watching Perun and tries to advise him based on these powerpoints. It doesn't really go anywhere but the kid tries.
Perun is full of shit
Are you kidding? Perun is eating a lot of his words by now. His videos aren't ageing well at all
@@alexk483what do you mean by that?
@@fulopmeszaros5330 since he doesn't provide ANY argument - the tankie is just being a tankie
"about as accurate your average internet horoscope"
also about as accurate as my beer being sprayed onto my screen
Well at least you hit the screen and not your neighbour's car.
Time for another rousing round of Perun's Powerpoint Presentations!
The true master of Microsoft PowerPoint
As Ukrainian I really appreciate your videos, you are one of the very few western bloggers whose videos on our war I watch
May I suggest then HistoryLegends? Not for information, but to laugh.
In a few years, it'll just be "the war" for everybody. I'm very sorry the US is such a ****show right now.
@@Adonnus100That man isn't even a blogger, he's just a clown posting his own Digital Circus.
Isnt Australia east of Russia? xD
Could you point us on reliable alternative sources please? I want to expand my knowledge
Coffee made. Kids and wife out. Perun video released.
Perfect 👌
I understand speculation is not among the topics you cover, but it is interesting to note how European nations (especially those in the East) have recently issued many statements regarding preparations for war. There's been a clear change of attitude towards the peace that we have and towards Russia also.
Anders Puck Nielsen released a very good, and very scary, video on this topic a couple of days ago.
thanks, I'll check it out@@juleswhicker
@@juleswhicker Yes, that was a very sobering perspective.
And then you look at their actual military budgets and realize it's just bluster.
I suspect their preparations for war or almost entirely because the Americans seem completely unwilling to do anything to help you Ukraine this point, I have said many times to many Americans, If Ukraine loses, not only will you regret it, everyone Will hate you because the very way of life that most of the world has come to enjoy is under threat, and how big of a threat that is depends on what happens in Ukraine
Wasn’t expecting the sudden Battletech reference.
But no, Solaris 7 is a place of civilized killing. Ukraine’s frontline is more like an outer periphery brute force match of grit and iron.
More Taurian Concordat! Hippy Hoppity get off my property!
I am pretty sure Shoygu is really good at math when it comes to his personal financial benefits.
Absolutely: just compare his official salary with his extremely impressive residential compound.
A true master of personal financial planning.
Biden too
Thats why he is so hated. But nothing will happen to him since he is buddies with putin.
As good as any topic Perun covers is the analysis of Russia’s war on Ukraine is always the most interesting
Because it hits closest for us who are invested in Ukraines win.
Anyone supporting transZensky is a traitor of Ukrainian people!
Pitler, is as always trying to drive wedges, into EU and NATO alliances! 😮It's definitely hard to believe Putin's this stupid, but his attack on Ukraine definitely a sign of senility, and being out of touch with basic economic & military maths!
@@Jartran72 That was impossible form the very start.
@@skywillfindyou Less impossible then Russia taking over all of Ukraine clearly
Let's gooo!!!! Thanks @perunau for Sunday afternoon entertainment in educational style.
Always a high concentration of stuff I don't already know with a sprinkle of wicked sarcasm. Private conscriptovich is burned into my brain.
Math with Sergei Shoigu was not on my bingo list but I am glad it made it on
'...Washington D.C. versus Washington D.C...'
Yeah, that sadly tracks. It seems like there is always a frighteningly large contingent of my countrymen who are continuously insistent on dragging the country and themselves onto wrong side of history for damn near every topic.
The US has scored an amazing own goal. For, relative, peanuts, they could cripple their biggest rival. But they seem to have decided to squabble over domestic politics.
@@stewm1267 It’s truly disgusting what is going on. First, a certain party demanded that Ukraine funding be tied to border security, because border security is a pressing crisis that couldn’t be ignored. After weeks of work and negotiations to reach a solution, the orange leader of that party has ordered that no solution be reached because that might give his opponent a win and make the orange leader look bad.
@@stewm1267 Their biggest rival is China, sure they have infinite fake money but between the Israel issue and their proxy war against Russia, theyve exhausted their worldwide goodwill, military reputation and ground war capacity. China is unscathed by their stupid actions and they are in no shape to win against China; hell Russia has even been strengthened from fighting this war militarily, economically and politically just like America benefited enormously from their involvement in WW2.
Things move fast: Perun is still correct that much of the Russian Black Sea Fleet missile launch capability is intact, but not *quite* as intact as it was at the time of publication, 4 days ago.
Russia don´t really need their black sea fleet. Ukraine can sink all of it and it would change nothing. So far they have only sunk 20% so I doubt it gives Putin much grief. They made come to need their landing ships if they want to cross the Dnieper in the not so far future, but i can´t sea what Russia would want there. Russia just want to exhaust and then walk right in and take what they said they would in 2008. Russia has to need to launch big offensives and lose a lot of hardware and lives over than when they can just wait out the Ukrainian that are already screwed.
@@oletoustrup8572 My Brother in Christ they lost 2300 tanks
Even if true so what and who did ? That is only 3 every day. Is that suppose to be a problem ?@@sababugs1125 Russia started the war with about 11.000 T72, 3.000 T80 and about 600 T90 and they are producing as many as they can. So not even counting T62 or T55 they have lost less than 15%.
This may be a power point presentation but damn if it isn't the most interesting and informative power point out there.
Real data. Real analysis. And actual acknowledgement of the limitations of both.
Hey Perun can i just say you are one of the best guys on the platform when it comes to analysis
You should go back to his first videos on the subject, and see how accurate his predictions were.
Since he is in Australia I kind of doubt that. In Australia with access to nothing everybody else don´t.
I could watch these for years
I watch them over and over again. Good stuff.
Given human nature and the military industrial complex, there's plenty of material for years too!
I hope I won't have to.
Next month your wish comes true!
@@gaoxiaen1Back under your bridge, little troll.
Love your videos. I would love an episode on Russia's soft power efforts to disrupt Western support for Ukraine.
In this may they fail in their endeavours.
As in, sponsoring German Nazis and "leftists" alike to spout their talking points, or buying an American "prsidential candidate) (Ramaswamy) to spout off Putin's POV during the GOP debates on the far right radical US networks.
Any analysis of this war that never even mentions Mogilevich, Deripaska, Deutsche Bank, Andrew Intrater, Charles McGonagil etc etc is woefully incomplete. To say the least. Sarah Kendzior Substack Newsletter
it's not a proper soft " power" , it is simply disgusting misinformation, distortion of facts in most cases.
soft power would mean attracting students in Russian universities, in Russian sports or Russian economy. none is happening. also no russian tourism, on the contrary, they are craving for going out into the world, not the world craving for them!
Bot detected.
Bot detected.
Thank you for putting the image of Duncan Fisher, narrating tank battles in Ukraine, squarely in the rent-free zone of my brain!
The dude does narration/commentary for cash, maybe we could get him to do that one T-90 vid...?
"And there goes another turret flying off into the distance! Quickscell folks: You get what you pay for."
@@Shenaldrac in fairness, quickcell might actually be a better fictional manufacturer than the real one the Russians use.
@@eddapultstab2078 True. I'd rather be in a Scorpion than an Armata.
The Russians lost an entire tank. Ukraine is losing so badly that that is all they got to brag about@@alexandermackie7621
Earlier than Private Conscriptovich to a vodka drinking contest!
Vastly more creative than those odious "Early Gang" comments. I salute you!!
Perun im binge watching your videos like its netflix. Your last video about china put aside all misconceptions
Pitler, is as always trying to drive wedges, into EU and NATO alliances! 😮It's definitely hard to believe Putin's this stupid, but his attack on Ukraine definitely a sign of senility, and being out of touch with basic economic & military maths!
While I appreciate your focus on serious, real-world matters, I wouldn't mind if you did an April Fool's video examining the defence economics of BattleMechs as a combat platform compared to conventional military units.
Erm yes on so many levels.
Who here remembers the African warlord battlemech meme?
That would be hilarious especially if Tex could be convinced to do a guest appearance.
Have to stick to the realm of the possible though; so Patlabors, not Gundams or EVAs.
He still owns all of us a conclusion for the Grand Duke's Khiva campaign...
Hey @PerunAU I heard what you did there at 4:55. That was a pretty sly way to slip a Battletech reference into the script, and I'm here for it.
Duncan Fisher would appreciate that move.
I had you pegged as a Battletech man.
I think Maximilian Liao could use you as an analyst on his crisis team.
House Lmao needs to ramp up production of 155mm shells to offset their inability to push without losing irreplaceable heavier equipment assembled abroad. The lack of aerospace coverage by both sides due to rifleman and jagermechs means the impact of modern but small multirole fighters will not change the game. The disruption of comstar service during attacks is unfortunate but little can be done except to lodge complaints. Instead of launching new offensives and potentially increasing length of supply lines more time is needed to train and refit units. Meanwhile, on the Steiner home front support for Davion continues to be stuck in the peers...
Thanks Perun! Always nice to wake up on Sunday morning and get your perspective.
Hi Perun, love the presentation style and ways in which you discuss topics and references, i will be using a similar theme in my Final year presentation, a mid module one due tomorrow aswell. I remember i used to listen to these at work or on a trip, very insightful and objective.
Wow. A Solaris 7 reference. Didn't see that coming.
Love the work! Quality, consistency, intelligence. A bit of wry humor. I often watch twice.
Out walking with the dog the thought struck me: it might be Perun time. Lo and behold
Thanks once more, Perun.
Yes! New Perun content!
Love the Battletech reference! Likely went over 95% of your audience's heads. "Turning Stepove into an areana, where the dual between those two Bradly's and a T-90M took place like something out of Solaris 7."
yeah, I got a sudden urge to get back into MWO again
It was not the Bradleys that knocked out the tank. Drones struck it while retreating. The crew escape.
@@oletoustrup8572 I know, I saw the full-length video. With drones so proliferated, A mobility kill within so many KM of the front lines is almost the same as a kinetic kill. Stationary metal has about a 5 min life expectancy.
I have no clue what you are talking about. A shape charge from a drone can never be a kinetic kill and the 25mm auto cannon is not powerfull enough to penetrate.@@alexl266 I don´t understand wither what you mean by "Stationary metal has about a 5 min life expectancy." If you mean what I think you mean any target not moving will be dead within 5 minutes. That sounds unlikely for a number of reasons. Stationary targets are hard to spot and certainly to hard to spot within 5 minutes. So 120 stationary targets would be killed every day at least. That is unrealistic. First they have to be spotted and a drone would have to make its way there and it would consume a ridiculous amount for diesel just to keep all vehicles moving around without any real purpose.
The shape charge is equally powerfull independent of the distance to the operater. If life expectancy was only 5 minutes all armour would become obsolete.
If I misunderstood I apologize. It is like listning to the recon platoon when I was in the army. They all believe they would only survive 2:30 min. So why bother training a recon platoon if they are all dead with 10 min. They for sure have a risky job though.
I am quite sure I don´t understand what you mean ? I don´t know what KM stands for @alexl266 You have to bear with me I am foreign.
500k, here we come!
Thanks Perun, i dont know what i had thaught abot this war if i didnt watch your sunday episodes and Jake Broes 3-4 episodes a week of good content.
Informative as usual
We presume. The video has been up for 1 minutes. For all we know 10 minutes into the video Perun begins singing baby shark for 58 minutes.
Best part of my Sundays. Thanks for all the great content, Perun!
Fantastic video again mate. Always love a Sunday night Perun upload.
Perun,you are the man ! Week after week quality first. Respekt
Keep the BattleTech references coming! Solaris 7 baby!
Keep on the good work, I would struggle to find such a concise, coherent sum up of the situation in the media. Thanks
It's Perun day! I wait all week for this content, thanks so much!
You continue to bring the best content on the tube. Even on your first non game you struck real topics with great wit. Glad to see you still have time for the second channel.
Much awaited, much appreciated looking forward to excellent insights as always from you.
Always excellent updates, I really look forward to your weekly releases. Cheers!
Sunday morning perun video, with a coffee and a smoke, Life is good!!
It's a good decade to start a military defense/procurement presentation channel.
As a Russian I really appreciate your reviews. I believe they are relatively unbiased and incredibly informative and concise. There is nothing similar in quality in Russian language media, well actually both Ukrainians and Russians, well and most of western sources manipulate information and it's hardly possible to understand what is actually going on just by reading RU/UA tg channels or media. Still there is general perception that RF army somehow recovered after shocks it experienced in 2022, made some lessons learning, downscaled expectations, reduced manpower losses, took control of information and now it is busy training newly hired troops and devises a new strategy for 2024.
You may also be interested in a channel called Inside Russia. His name is Konstentine and he left before the first mobilization. It's not so much military as it is what's happening with the population.
The central perception appears to be incorrect. Russian daily losses have been crazy high for the last 4 months up thru yesterday.
I think this is because putin's political considerations outweigh military considerations.
Do you live in Russia or are an expat? Your assessment seems reasonable and yet ignores a critical factor. Time is not on Russia's side. Their economy is disintegrating. Burning through their national wealth fund...and when it runs out, who is going to extend them loans? China? Putin will be sorely disappointed if that is his expectation. The likely path is ramping of inflation to the hyper kind (I predict this year). Often, trolls try to point out the population disparity of the combatants (demographics suck on both sides) to imply the long term inevitability Russia will prevail...but this ignores force multipliers (nobody would have expected Russian black sea fleet to be forced out of their main base at Sevastopol by a nation with no navy).
Great that you can comment here without ppl jumping on you just for the fact that you are Russian.
@@alanhopkinson1838 On which side is the time? Ukraine?
Only Perun can make a long power point presentation such a nice time! Great job as always!
every week I look forward to watch your videos, thanks for your work !
Gerasimov- the Elphinstone of our time.
Yet he's their best. Yep. Russia are that bad.
Que devient Gerasimov ??
@@sergevandyck il semble avoir acquis le pouvoir d'invisibilité 😆
"babe wake up the new Perun just dropped..."
"Real shit?"
Great vid mate.
Well done & Thank you!
Great production (as always). Thank you, Perun.
Thanks for the video! Love being kept up to date on this theater by a trustworthy source.
Solaris VII? A Battletech reference? You mad lad! Informative and entertaining! :)
My favorite PowerPoint every week bar none. Thanks for making my week ahead better
Thanks, Perun, for an informative hour. Greatly appreciated ❤
It would be interesting to have a perspective on how losses affect an army's ability to maintain experienced units.
And of course the repercussions created by having inexperienced units
If you want that insight go start to read about military history and structure and write down what you read in a proper scientific journal so you can actually give your own judgement instead of repeating that of others.
If you want that insight go start to read about military history and structure and write down what you read in a proper scientific journal so you can actually give your own judgement instead of repeating that of others.
If you want that insight go start to read about military history and structure and write down what you read in a proper scientific journal so you can actually give your own judgement instead of repeating that of others.
If you want that insight go start to read about military history and structure and write down what you read in a proper scientific journal so you can actually give your own judgement instead of repeating that of others.
This is why the USA very carefully manages their units and losses. Besides a few very bad runs of luck they try to hold losses at low levels so that units gain experience faster than they lose men with the experience. At the end of WW2 there were a few units with too high losses (Battle of Hurtgenwald forest), but overall the USA had veteran units that were highly capable. Germany otoh suffered casualties so horrible that there were few units left and Russia still (after years of fighting) had an undisciplined horde that, even in the final battle for Berlin, suffered excess casualties.
Btw, this is stuff you learn at the war college when you are going to be promoted as a general.
Dominions 6 content is rather more terrifying than expected. Still great thanks for the amazing presentation Perun!
I suppose I'm not the only one looking for Dominion 6 guides and found that Perun had previously been a channel dedicated to Dominion 5 ones. Quite the channel direction change.
@ironman3112 For myself, I followed Perun for his Dominions content. It was a crazy surprise to have him weigh in on the Ukraine war. Love his content either way. His military analysis and Dominions content are both top notch.
@@lookingforsomething aye - concur with you there.
Thank you perun for usual offering, insightful and thoughtful videos, really on PPP. many thanks.
Amazing video as always! Thank and the team for all the hard work!
QUESTION:- Yourself and many other commentators understandably talk about the huge amount of shells Russia fires and the millions of rounds required.
What no-one mentions is barrels. Can/Does Russia have the capacity to manufacture/repair them in sufficient numbers or isn’t this a factor?
Great work on this presentation as always. Thank you.
Not only this, but what is the actual shell efficiency and accuracy on each side?
It's easy to fire a million rounds, but if they deal as much damage as a hundred thousand shells from your enemy, then your 10 to 1 advantage in artillery cancels out.
Plus, everbody seems to forgot quality of North Korean shells. Those shells are very different spec then Russian arty shells.
@@madkoala2130Better.
Great point! The lead and manufacturing time for barrels is not inconsequential. I wonder how long it takes Russia to produce a batch of SPG barrels.
He mentioned artillery barrels in a video near the start of the war, and Russia's estimated capacity for refurbishment. Don't think he's done follow up.
Good stuff as always 🎉
Thanks Perun!!
as per usual, great job, Perun!
Bloody excellent lecture as always Perun.
I would not be surprised if your videos are used in certain groups within the worlds military forces to gain a better overview as an outside observer to their own intel gathering.
Looking forward to the next one and I have to say that the quality of your videos and audio has gone up tremendously since I first saw the "The Price of War" video and then watched everything since.
Keep up the good work mate.
Cheers from a QLDer in Scandinavia.
"I would not be surprised if your videos are used in certain groups within the worlds military forces to gain a better overview as an outside observer to their own intel gathering."
I'd bet good money that they are.
You should be very surprised if relevant militaries don´t have better intell than some dude in Australia. Very surprised. As surprised as if the sun did not come up in the morning.
Perun time!!!!
Yup. Again I find myself fully engaged in an hour long Perun PowerPoint. Love the little quips, memes, and funnies you manage to sneak in. Keep up the stellar work. Much love ❤
Thank you very much Perun. Please keep up the great work, it is very much appreciated.
The image of armoured vehicles being "destroyed" by shrapnel from a blast several meters away brings to mind how it was that, according to Japanese contemporary reports, USS Enterprise (CV-6) was destroyed over and over again and, therefore, must be a mythical unkillable ghost ship.
An armoured vihicle can easily be destroyed by shrapnel at that distance. The lightest will simply be flipped over.
She WAS unkillable, that's why they made the decision to destroy her while she slumbered. They were afraid she'd become sentient and lead the war on her creators. It's the only valid reason for scrapping such a ship.
Appreciate the well supported updates with trademark dry humor
Thank you, once again, for providing these delightfully informationally dense presentations. (and as an aside, I miss doing this sort of work)
Brilliant reporting! So enjoy your stream!
Cheers mate.! 👍 👍 👍
Another top notch, well researched, thought out & presented video..
Please stay safe out there mate & best wishes from Scotland 🏴 🙏 ❤️
It atually was not well researched at all. It was ridiculous. What is it you believe that a tanker can research from 8.000 miles with all access restricted ?
I would love if we had Perun on Netflix.
Humanity could use ACTUAL educational programs.
We have Perun on RUclips.
I really don't understand this sentiment, we already have Perun here providing an educational program.
Why Netflix? It's good here already
@@FirstDagger I think what they were saying is for Perun to have a "bigger" platform/reach. While it's true Perun's content broke through the RUclips noise to some extent, being on the front page of Netflix will only help this responsible approach towards international analysis to a bigger audience. I do agree that RUclips nowadays is as "mainstream" as TV or Netflix - you can be just as "legitimate" here as anywhere else.
I thought Netflix is dying?
Another outstanding Sunday brief!
You do excellent work, Perun. Been a fan from the start of the powerpoints and you nail it every time. Thanks!
Excellent as always Perun, looking forward to a video that analyses the increased or lack thereof production in western countries
Here we go
Thankyou Perun!
Top stuff, as always. Fanx, Perun.
Sometimes i wonder how often a russian general/minister watches perun and calls his staff afterwards why they don't provide him that intel...
They believe the intel they are getting.
@@namesurname624I don't think any senior russian official beleives a single thing they are told anymore. Low level corruption is so rampant, you can even see this early on in the war with how many generals personally went to the front lines (and died).
@@namesurname624 and they know better than to stir the hornet's nest by asking
Well never. Perun is somewhere far away and has access to nothing everybody does not. The Russian chiefs of staff have access to everything they call on. Who can you imagine gets the right info ? Some youtuber thousands of miles away working from home, or could it be the people who´s job it is to know these kinds of things and can access anything they please unlike Perun. Think carefully before you place your bet though it should not be nessesary.
Who is likely to get it right. Some RUclipsr far away or the top of one of the armies involved with access to into from drones, satellites, planes, special ops teams. Is it the youtuber with access to nothing that everybody don´t, or could it be the people with access to everything they need ?
@@oletoustrup8572 so many words, so few battlefield successes. lmao.
Perun being top notch as usual love it 😻
Thank you for another great presentation - great info and analysis (and I love the dry wit!)
Excellent again. Always an education, never a chore.