Every journalist at the daily #10 press briefing should watch this as often as it takes for them to stop asking bloody stupid questions about when this, and why that.
Scientists have been warning about the next pandemic for several years now - and have been saying that we are overdue one. That’s why Exercise Cygnus was conducted by the U.K. government. The results of that particular exercise were never published and remain classified!!!!!! Conducted 2016.
Wet markets , jungle meat , weird pets , more people venturing into the wilds , it will go on an on , till most the animals are gone , 500 years I'd guess.
It is clear to me that Prof. Chris Whitty is a very knowledgeable and professional virologist. It is sad that our government has not used his considerable knowledge and experience to help formulate policy and inform strategic planning.
I'm glad I saw videos like this before the current pandemic, it helped me to identify fake news in social and mainstream media easily and know what mistakes are currently being made with the future consequences of these poor decisions.
He seems to have u-turned! Especially on it taking years for a vac! I don't want a rushed one! And certainly not one that has anything to do with the mobile man😟
At 48:30 Chris says banning travel is useless... Is that why we didn't ban air travel for covid-19? Surely every one of the infections/30,000 deaths can be traced back to someone coming from places like China, Italy or Spain. Even if half of the travellers had self isolated for 14 days the death rate would have been reduced to ~15,000... Slow to lock-down airports has led to the UK being one of the worse infected nations!
So true it should be all looked into and investagated immediately as the uk goverment and chief medical advisors they knew all this information years ago and didn't bother too shut down public transport, airports schools or tube stations of this highly infectous easliy transmitted virus and still chose science for herd immunity for all of us to get infected so they can get thousands off antibodies and vacine with no preparation at all for front line workers ppe or testing kits for everyone to get tested its been all preplaned to thin out as much as they can of the most vunerable and sick in the uk population so the thinning out begins as we all knew months ago Boris.
This video reinforces the fact that this Chris Whitty knows what he is talking about during this crisis, and that UK should listen to what he says and take note - I wish that all the sceptics on this issue (such as Peter Hitchens) who are intent on criticising the Govt's lockdown policy, and which only encourages others to continue to enjoy their house parties and barbeques, would pay more attention and accept that the UK Govt. are very well informed by the most talented specialists in the world, right here in the UK. I thank you for reading, and for watching this video (which I just found by chance thanks to the RUclips algorithms). Enjoy your day/evening and please stay safe.
He was wrong about developed countries as inherently preventing pandemics. We have a covid 19 pandemic, that prays on a pandemic of the western diet, based on high levels of sugar and so diabetes, and heart disease. Low levels of vitamin D as well due to people avoiding the sun.
The West has a debilitating demography coming as a result of being wealthier. The video fails to bring out this flip side, but I do not think he is "wrong" in his argument per se.
Please download your own copy as a backup ASAP. Just in case it is taken down. You can just google "download a youtube video" lots of free websites will do it for you in seconds
6:08 - "It's wrong to say that we are increasingly vulnerable to epidemics because of the massive transport networks" - May be it's time to update that statement in the next lecture?
He was probably assuming that in the event of highly transmissable disease that governments would take reasonable, rational steps to contain and quarantine human vectors. After all, that happened with Ebola, where the number of infected was very low in the US. That didn't happen with Covid obviously. Foreign travel from China to the US was stopped, but only for non citizens, and few if any of those individuals (citizens) were properly quarantined. By the time European travel was stopped it was far too late to stop transmission from Europe. Lack of adequate action and downplaying the seriousness of the disease have resulted in the infection spreading and many people dying who need not have. We could have had relatively minor pain and inconvenience, but due to incompetence, thsts not what we got (I'm talking about the USA here but apply it as appropriate) This is a classic example of why scientists need to be in charge of public health responses, not venal politicians.
That map of world transport and then explaining that the UK would be safe because its a wealthy country with nutritious food... He said that with a straight face. This lecture was during *"austerity"*
Airports ARE pointless as it's already in. But yes, interesting to say transport closures are pointless, and rightly stating the damage vs risk of schools closing.
Precisely! I'm just wondering exactly HOW covid 19 arrived in the UK if not by air travel, maybe it magically appeared via a tomato you can't clean or wash? Maybe............
@@mokitaism If you had shut down the airports, sea etc then this could have been controlled a lot easier. The virus is not airborne so has been via direct contact.
Key points for the current COVID-19 pandemic: - It is not a question if we have a pandemic, it is a question of when. - An airborne pandemic is the most dangerous (he gave the flu as an example, but all that applies to COVID: difficult to interrupt, rapid spread, affects high proportion of the population) - SARS cost the global economy $40 Billion in 2002/2003. This COVID-19 will be far more devastating. - A vaccine may not be possible at all (like with HIV, and malaria) - If a vaccine is possible, it could be years away (since no vaccine for the Coronavirus family exists) - Interventions (including social distancing) work, but take time. Sometimes people don't see the effect immediately, and give up prematurely
@@zeldagoblin Because, until the virus comes you can't make a vaccine. You wouldn't know exactly what you were making the vaccine for. Every virus is genetically different
zeldagoblin Because they cannot predetermine the make up of the virus ahead of its arrival. That’s why you may recall they started work on one immediately that China published its genetic make up. Each one will be different
I think that he missed the factor of the importance of access to free healthcare (paid by taxes communally). Its no good having medicines or vaccines or hospitals if the poorest and most vulnerable don't have access to it.
@St Alfonso yes, he did say that. Vaccines lead to a lower child mortality rate, which leads to a lower birth rate in 3rd world areas (as it did in the UK a few centuries ago). By decreasing the birth rate now, the global population can, in the long term, be reduced compared to what it would have been.
It's happening now. I wish that people in the government watched this video a few months ago. The inadequate responses of many world government and WHO is tragic. This is a man made disaster.
Jamie He’s one of those advising ... doesn’t mean that the politicians or other expert actually listen though! The public inquiry into COVID19 really needs to occur and is going to be damn interesting!
And yet the UK govt dithered and prevaricated for weeks before taking the right actions. Many companies did not bother to wait for the gov't to give advice, they took actions which have long been known and are blindingly obvious to be effective such as work from home. We were 2 weeks behind Italy, this again was easy to see when you take one look at the numbers. Did the govt A) decide not to try to catch up with the ongoing disaster Italy is in by taking decisive measures or B) Decide to kill half a million people because they can't look at a bloody chart and say oh hey, look where that is going. Yeah, it was B) the herd immunity option, we are all supposed to play Russian f**king roulette. Thanks a bloody lot.
Kie 7077 Prof Whitty remark at 43:15 is extremely prophetic! He states that “epidemics will always follow Civil Unrest and Disaster” ... and remember, during Jan and Feb in the UK there was a significant volume of both ... with Brexit and VAR causing untold unrest, and the severe weather events. While in the US ... blighted by the disaster and civil unrest of having someone like Trump as President. Hence both counties were doomed from the outset. The total lack of early data from WHO and China didn’t help either ....
I remember watching this before I knew Chris Whitty is a big deal with the UK government. I thought to myself wow, he's a superb presenter. His speaking and communication surely has a big piece of success, but of course he's a genius. It's great to watch this.
I feel totaly sick they all knew all information and what was coming and still chose science and done nothing to prepare or protect everyone espically the vunerable and very ill from this highly infectious transmitting virus. It's all viral now the goverment and medical advisors are finnished it's what we thought all along, preplaned to thin out the uk population, there lack of response give the game away months ago.
Hi Chris, do you think that R0, R etc can work well for RESPIRATORY illness? The problem is that we need to take account of temperature, because there are many examples in the literature of temp triggering resp illness. Will Covid go away in the summer? We don't know, but it's always good to get a fundamental insight if we can. Then models can be updated with new info quickly. See eg colds and flu in th Netherlands in 1925 - 26 to see the problem (and suggestions)@t
because, allegedly, 50% of people are infected with no symptoms - carriers. (I guess, so even if you are screening, your goin let 50%of infected people pass by you, without even knowing)
Funny how his advice allows people into the country from highly infected areas; without checks, no compulsory two-week quarantine needed... That's no way to stop a pandemic - he should re-watch this.
I get we shouldn't blame foreigners and that the disease jumps from animal to human, but if it jumps due to human farming/market practices then surely that must be challenged.
No its racist if you blame China for all the diseases they create. Only a racist would point that out. You should just wait for the next disease to come out of China that kills the whole world rather than criticize their animal welfare practices. (Sarcasm)
What he say sounds reasonable. And it looks like Governments around the world are addressing this pandemic the way he is saying here. He does say at one point about age and nutritional status being important in determining if a virus can spread. He also says a prosperous, war free population with good sanitation, housing etc, are less susceptible. Yet his main focus is external controls and measures to stop a spread. It's what he is not focusing on that worries me most. Humans have immune systems and if we focused on improving our nutrition (which is the root cause of insulin resistance diseases like type 2 diabetes, and is a major contributory factor in cancer and heart disease), we could simultaneously lower mortality and suffering in the major killer diseases and improve our ability to avoid viral and bacterial infection taking hold or being so severe. The fact the chief advisor to UK Government on this pandemic has a predominantly external focus with little or no focus on improving internal health status is terrifying to me. eg science says exercise is good. It reduces susceptibility to infections of all sorts and improves mortality outcomes if infected. But advice was close gyms. Studies show vit D deficiency increases the risk getting of covid by nearly double. Stats recon 70% of USA are vit D deficient. Another showed severity of disease is massively reduced in those with sufficient levels of vit d. Prof Whitys advice to UK of lockdown measures has proven ineffective. Ie we are same as Sweden. We need someone advising the government who takes everything into consideration who doesn't make glaring omissions. Whity himself says that pestilence follows war. And the forcing of people to follow bias science is driving us toward the kind of civil unrest that he himself says will cause more disease.
I'd be interested to know why coronavirus was off-the-radar, and whether there are any other potentially high-risk types of virus other than influenza.
We have many Coronavirus within society all the time, so no, it wasn't off the radar. The likelihood of other deadly viruses, not just influenza starting to spread and cause epidemics and/or pandemics are always pretty high. We've just been quite lucky up until now. Our preparedness for this pandemic had been an absolute disgrace!
Interesting that Gates and Obama were mentioning it 4/5 years ago as a possibility. Corbyn menrioned the NHS at risk in dec 19 Excersise Cygnus showed the vulnerability of the NHS in 2016 - but its still a Tory secret for now. Boris the butcher
Dr John Bergman and several others. Most others are part of the government scare machine.Once this is over heads should roll, the government is guilty of total hype and most death will be recorded as the virus. If you have several underlying circumstances health issues you could be in trouble.
It would have been a fair guess to make ANY year, so no, he couldn't have known, but I bet he wouldn't have thought anyone suggesting so was bonkers. This IS 'the science' the UK [and US] 'governments DIDN'T follow as they claimed to have.
Extremely good presentation, and this new pandemic changes things quite a bit. It's interesting how vaccines are being touted as the solution where previously I would have assumed they wouldn't be attempted. Quite a few epidemiologists are skeptical about whether vaccines will work. It's interesting that treatment of certain symptoms can improve mortality risk, such as steroids in the inflammation phase. People are paranoid about the vaccine but I'd get it assuming the experts are saying everything's kosher with the phases, including phase 3 of the trials.
Theres no substitute for time though and the compressed timeline for approval is what gives otherwise pro vaccination recipients grave pause for thought
rodger van ochten I agree! The maths and science with the transmission of COVID19 appears to me to be quite easy ... but requires accurate data as soon as possible. Yet the sharing of data from China and WHO from the outset appears very poor, then other countries appear to have been very slow to acquire there own data (eg community testing), then very slow to react, and this has allowed widespread community transmission way before policy makers knew that was the case! Even now, there is so much data that is missing or is not reliable or maybe known but is not shared, such as the percentage of Asymptomatic cases.
@@ModelRailway The WHO had to push hard to gain access to China & they upgraded their warning as soon as they saw it for themselves. China & the rest of the world was pretty much in shock & couldn't believe that this was actually happening (especially when most countries outside of Asia thought that they had over reacted to SARS & were depleating their stockpiles of SARS PPE).
Lucasee Huang Heard immunity can work when you a) have a vaccine to vaccinate the community , and b) know for sure if both the infectious disease and the vaccine has produced memory immunity across the community to protect the vulnerable. Until now , scientific community has no answer to a and b. Stay safe and strong
It's claimed it was Dominic Cummings' idea. Also, Bojo, a libertarian, liked the idea of herd immunity. This herd immunity tactic was described in a news conference on Friday March 19th, everyone under 70 was told to act like normal and ignore the bodies piling up while the over 70's cocoon inside and die in their homes. But over the weekend of 20-21th March, Prof. Niall Ferguson's team at Imperial produced new calculations based on Italy's disaster and showed the results Bojo; showing herd immunity could kill 200,000. So Bojo abandoned that idea of Herd immunity and on Monday March 23rd he went on TV announcing much tighter restrictions. The death toll was already 335, the restrictions came too late. Heard immunity does not work because a low fatality rate depends on having an intact NHS, able to treat every patient. Most people can survive the disease (as Bojo did) with a relatively brief hospital or ICU stay of a few days, oxygen mask, CPAP & ventilators, that tides them over until they get better. However, if you try herd immunity you end up with a tsunami of sick heading to hospital (e.g. Italy) and people die because they don't get medical care. The fatality rate skyrockets. This is now happening in Ecuador, many many people dying at home from treatable viral pneumonia because they don't have medical care... ruclips.net/video/XHsfjnRB-uA/видео.html
The problem with BoJo's version of "herd immunity" was that it was a dumbed-down version of the original idea, which involves vaccination against a known disease, not doing nothing and let people be infected with an unknown disease.
Did you see that policy suggested in this talk? For any type of epidemic? No epidemiologist advised that "mitigation until herd immunity" was the best way forward, or even *a* way forward (immunity isn't understood for this virus). They were presumably told that their suggested solutions were not acceptable, and had to work out other scenarios, which they did.
29 minutes. Not all Nurses are trained in PPE. This is a know. So why aren’t they trained and why is there not a stockpile of know amount of PPE for emergency use. The Government. Has failed completely. And a source that can be made in the country that can be implemented in a emergency, agreed with companies. When we now have to be self reliant, due to brexit. What have the government been doing ?
Because seasonal flu is such a big risk we maintain stocks of PPE. In addition resulting from Operation Yellowhammer the UK identified sources of PPE for no deal Brexit and made supplementary stocks to deal with it. If you want to comment and criticize in a public forum I respectfully suggest you get your facts right first.
Gary Galt There is an emergency stockpile of medical supplies (much of which includes ppe) that is kept in the event of a pandemic, but this has - for whatever reason - been allowed to shrink in value by 40%, or over £325 million, since 2013. This wouldn't have helped matters recently. Edit: Also, the firm to which the handling of the stockpile was outsourced, was sold off in recent weeks.
48:40 Whitty says that "banning travel is utterly useless". I wondered if the UK government had been lying when it claimed that "scientists" told them restricting international travel during a pandemic would have almost no effect. As of April 14th 2020, eleven thousand people have died in Britain PRECISELY BECAUSE no quarantine was imposed on overseas arrivals. Those responsible for this appalling mass murder should be prosecuted.
Red Alert well spotted and totally agree! And that’s a major question mark ... as Prof Whitty states earlier within the presentation, the key to getting an epidemic under control is reducing the ‘R’ value below 1 ... also containment strategies to reduce spread .... yet the approach to a Flu epidemic implied that this would not be achievable, to imply to let it spread. However, as we’ve already seen within the COVID19 pandemic, going ‘hard’ and ASAP to stop travel, has really worked in many countries ... and many other counties adopted this strategy, but far too late.
Exactly - you know I don't presume to be as learned as these guys in their field - but sometimes you need to get your head out of the books and just bloody LOOK at what is happening in the world around you. You can only 'model' so much. We all SAW what China was doing - having to do - around Jan 23/24th. Locking down many millions of their own citizens. Not even China does that lightly. That was an absolute klanger of an alarm bell in my view. It doesn't take a genius to work out what happens if you can infect other people before you show symptoms yourself - and whether people like it or not that information also came out of China in January. From that point on we should have assumed and prepared for the worst, even if just in case. Even now it's inexplicable borders are still open- as one of the few island nations in the world the UK has an opportunity to get rid of the damned thing but still allowing travel will mean they'll never get rid of it. They'll be stuck with sickness, deaths and restrictions for years to come. At first I just felt it was incompetence but the longer it goes on the more I feel you're right - a prosecution wouldn't be unwarranted.
The first tested case was recorded in the UK on the 30th January, so assuming 14 days incubation this would have required closing the borders in the middle of January, probably way earlier, to stop any cases arriving in the UK. I presume the point is that closing the borders later on makes little difference as community spread then far outweighs the cases coming from overseas (like the USA right now?), and I would assume there would be little political appetite for closing the borders early enough, before it had visibly arrived in the UK. A bit like ordering PPE and ventilators only after it is clear we have an epidemic in the UK. Such is politics - I'm sure Boris was advised what could happen, and I'm also sure he ignored that advice right up the day he turned up ashen-faced and told us 'loved ones will die'.
This comment shocked me but also answered the question of why Britain seemed very lax in their airport regulations once it became obvious that most of our earliest cases were coming in from Italy and Europe. Nigel Farage was a voice in the wilderness crying out that the borders and airports be monitored. No one listened, they preferred to hear only a scientific perspective despite the fact that pharmaceutical companies have the greatest motivation to see an epidemic reach pandemic proportions. Will Chris Whitty apologise to the nation for giving poor advice. No more than China and the WHO will accept culpability for suppressing and misinforming the world about the reality of this disease. Wake up world!!!
I feel reassured when Prof Chris Witty gives his advice at the daily Government briefings....so interesting to see this video and learn more about infectious diseases! Hope everyone is keeping safe and well xxxx
Interesting to see how he basically knew nothing then (“closing airports and transportation is utterly useless”) and still seems to know very little now... smh Why aren’t ppl like Jeremy Farrar in the government??
This aged well
Every journalist at the daily #10 press briefing should watch this as often as it takes for them to stop asking bloody stupid questions about when this, and why that.
jez lawrence omg totally agree
They wont do that it involves research and therefor work.
jez lawrence yeah, you would think they would.
Did this appear in anyone else's suggested?
Yes. Probably because I watched the 3 part video on the 1918 pandemic.
Yes. Fascinating.
Yes, maybe becouse I've just seen a Video on the money he has received from Bill gates and the links between the people pushing vaccines.
nancy johnston A case of follow the money... Have you got any links?
"The question is not if we have the next pandemic, but when" We know the answer now.
How?
Scientists have been warning about the next pandemic for several years now - and have been saying that we are overdue one. That’s why Exercise Cygnus was conducted by the U.K. government. The results of that particular exercise were never published and remain classified!!!!!! Conducted 2016.
Now it's moment to ask when it will be next pandemic wave, I bet he will be confuse and don't know answer
Dave Pullin it is here for cornvirus
Wet markets , jungle meat , weird pets , more people venturing into the wilds , it will go on an on , till most the animals are gone , 500 years I'd guess.
Great to have this archive. A non-hysteric delivery of information removed from panic.
Going against everything their telling us just now, like vaccine will take years not weeks or months.
If only he'd adhered to what he says here rather than what he has advised
Hope you were right mate, cause a year later it’s looking nasty right now.
Now he is in charge of legitimately controlling a full blown pandemic
Luke Birch I think that there are those who have got a vested interest in a Vaccine programme!
It is clear to me that Prof. Chris Whitty is a very knowledgeable and professional virologist. It is sad that our government has not used his considerable knowledge and experience to help formulate policy and inform strategic planning.
I'm glad I saw videos like this before the current pandemic, it helped me to identify fake news in social and mainstream media easily and know what mistakes are currently being made with the future consequences of these poor decisions.
But thank heavens we have stable geniuses like Mr. Trump!
What are your thoughts on Sweden's handling of the virus?
Gary Mills
Said as sarcasm I’m sure.
Today, April 25th 2020, Trump advised people to drink or inject household disinfectant
He seems to have u-turned! Especially on it taking years for a vac! I don't want a rushed one! And certainly not one that has anything to do with the mobile man😟
At 48:30 Chris says banning travel is useless... Is that why we didn't ban air travel for covid-19? Surely every one of the infections/30,000 deaths can be traced back to someone coming from places like China, Italy or Spain. Even if half of the travellers had self isolated for 14 days the death rate would have been reduced to ~15,000... Slow to lock-down airports has led to the UK being one of the worse infected nations!
It is inevitable neo. You can slow the spread, but it's gonna happen either way. Better to be done with it quicker if that's the case.
They make it up as they go along.Where did lockdowns come from then....China!
The panick is often out of proportion to the actual severity of the disease.... How true
This will be worth watching during the investigation into to covid.
So true it should be all looked into and investagated immediately as the uk goverment and chief medical advisors they knew all this information years ago and didn't bother too shut down public transport, airports schools or tube stations of this highly infectous easliy transmitted virus and still chose science for herd immunity for all of us to get infected so they can get thousands off antibodies and vacine with no preparation at all for front line workers ppe or testing kits for everyone to get tested its been all preplaned to thin out as much as they can of the most vunerable and sick in the uk population so the thinning out begins as we all knew months ago Boris.
This video reinforces the fact that this Chris Whitty knows what he is talking about during this crisis, and that UK should listen to what he says and take note - I wish that all the sceptics on this issue (such as Peter Hitchens) who are intent on criticising the Govt's lockdown policy, and which only encourages others to continue to enjoy their house parties and barbeques, would pay more attention and accept that the UK Govt. are very well informed by the most talented specialists in the world, right here in the UK. I thank you for reading, and for watching this video (which I just found by chance thanks to the RUclips algorithms). Enjoy your day/evening and please stay safe.
I’m confused by 2:20
A very good lecture. Watching this at 2020 makes this even more interesting when there is something to compare the mitigation to.
He says a vaccine takes years and a pandemic can't be predicted! So what is Gates on about?
Hindsight is now.
We got from this to say goodbye to your grandparents in 18 months.
@brian elliot And if it becomes endemic those young people will grow up to find their lives will be 20 years shorter than they planed.
Don’t worry I’m a literal superhuman so I’m basically immune I don’t mean to brag but I’m chilling right now
Hannah Dyson an extremely disrespectful comment. All members of society, whatever their age, have their idiots.
@brian elliot have you ever said that about Influenza?
@brian elliot So can a car... use your rational, critical and analytical part of your brain.
He was wrong about developed countries as inherently preventing pandemics. We have a covid 19 pandemic, that prays on a pandemic of the western diet, based on high levels of sugar and so diabetes, and heart disease. Low levels of vitamin D as well due to people avoiding the sun.
The West has a debilitating demography coming as a result of being wealthier. The video fails to bring out this flip side, but I do not think he is "wrong" in his argument per se.
Denis Daley Not just sugar but high carbs
Rule 1: Time is of the essence. Proactively prepare fast.
Rule 2: If rule 1 means costing money do the opposite to save cash for BoJo
Good shout! Next weeks talk, high speed pursuit driving with Stevie Wonder!!!
will there be drifting? i bet Stevie is awesome behind the wheel
Please download your own copy as a backup ASAP. Just in case it is taken down. You can just google "download a youtube video" lots of free websites will do it for you in seconds
attlee2010 lol
'The Invisible Rainbow - A history of electricity and life' - Arthur Firstenberg
6:08 - "It's wrong to say that we are increasingly vulnerable to epidemics because of the massive transport networks" - May be it's time to update that statement in the next lecture?
He was probably assuming that in the event of highly transmissable disease that governments would take reasonable, rational steps to contain and quarantine human vectors. After all, that happened with Ebola, where the number of infected was very low in the US. That didn't happen with Covid obviously.
Foreign travel from China to the US was stopped, but only for non citizens, and few if any of those individuals (citizens) were properly quarantined. By the time European travel was stopped it was far too late to stop transmission from Europe.
Lack of adequate action and downplaying the seriousness of the disease have resulted in the infection spreading and many people dying who need not have. We could have had relatively minor pain and inconvenience, but due to incompetence, thsts not what we got (I'm talking about the USA here but apply it as appropriate)
This is a classic example of why scientists need to be in charge of public health responses, not venal politicians.
That map of world transport and then explaining that the UK would be safe because its a wealthy country with nutritious food...
He said that with a straight face.
This lecture was during *"austerity"*
@@Anon-xd3cf Austerity was fake. The deficit is cataclysmic and has been piled onto with a new wave of irresponsible spending.
It's 0315hr and I cannot sleep. I watched this. And now am tired. Cheers Prof
48:40 interesting take on closing airports and schools ...
Airports ARE pointless as it's already in. But yes, interesting to say transport closures are pointless, and rightly stating the damage vs risk of schools closing.
mokitaism I work with pandemic simulations, the moment you add schools, airports and public transportation the R rate rises exponentially
Precisely! I'm just wondering exactly HOW covid 19 arrived in the UK if not by air travel, maybe it magically appeared via a tomato you can't clean or wash? Maybe............
Look how big the second wave was compared to the first... Terrifying jump if the coronavirus plays out the same way.
@@mokitaism If you had shut down the airports, sea etc then this could have been controlled a lot easier. The virus is not airborne so has been via direct contact.
Key points for the current COVID-19 pandemic:
- It is not a question if we have a pandemic, it is a question of when.
- An airborne pandemic is the most dangerous (he gave the flu as an example, but all that applies to COVID: difficult to interrupt, rapid spread, affects high proportion of the population)
- SARS cost the global economy $40 Billion in 2002/2003. This COVID-19 will be far more devastating.
- A vaccine may not be possible at all (like with HIV, and malaria)
- If a vaccine is possible, it could be years away (since no vaccine for the Coronavirus family exists)
- Interventions (including social distancing) work, but take time. Sometimes people don't see the effect immediately, and give up prematurely
What I don't get is that they've been expecting a corona virus to go rogue for decades. Why haven't they been working on a vaccine already?
@@zeldagoblin
No commercial incentive for huge corporations
@@zeldagoblin Because, until the virus comes you can't make a vaccine. You wouldn't know exactly what you were making the vaccine for. Every virus is genetically different
@@zeldagoblin Because you need to know what the specific corona virus looks like before you can make a vaccine for it.
zeldagoblin Because they cannot predetermine the make up of the virus ahead of its arrival. That’s why you may recall they started work on one immediately that China published its genetic make up. Each one will be different
So prescient, compulsory viewing for all in April 2020.
I think that he missed the factor of the importance of access to free healthcare (paid by taxes communally). Its no good having medicines or vaccines or hospitals if the poorest and most vulnerable don't have access to it.
This poor guy will be hauled in front of an inquiry before long. UK has responded terribly. The reckoning will come. Good Luck.
This will be a good watch at the plandemic trials
Imagine the policies being decided by people in the comments section. We'd all be dead.
@Blue Angel point proved
Yet they have done everything they shouldn’t do in a pandemic!
Anton Clark like what?
rubbsh
Next slide please
By god, I'm glad we have this guy as our CMO in the UK right now.
Please tell me you were being sarcastic with Mr Herd Immunity in charge?
@St Alfonso yes, he did say that.
Vaccines lead to a lower child mortality rate, which leads to a lower birth rate in 3rd world areas (as it did in the UK a few centuries ago). By decreasing the birth rate now, the global population can, in the long term, be reduced compared to what it would have been.
It was planned, and he knew about it.
Nice conclusion. Peace & prosperity are essential
It's happening now. I wish that people in the government watched this video a few months ago. The inadequate responses of many world government and WHO is tragic. This is a man made disaster.
He is in the government. So why did they take so long to react? Political pushback?
Jamie He’s one of those advising ... doesn’t mean that the politicians or other expert actually listen though! The public inquiry into COVID19 really needs to occur and is going to be damn interesting!
He's the UK's equivalent to Dr Fauci
An advisors job it’s to advise, it’s up to the people paying for the advice to act on it
A plan-made disaster.
And that kids is why we don’t eat bats.
21:10 After they announce a vaccine is in trials for Covid-19 we come back to these comments that suggest vaccines can take years.And years.
amazing change of attitude to potential vaccines
Mr Smith they’re trying their hardest but will still probably be years before an effective one is readily available
Let me start.
1. Don't ignore it for 2 months.
Wealth of knowledge by Professor Chris Whitty
Interesting that he did not mention the trace and test policy. Or did I miss it, as it would be implied by some of the actions mentioned.
Excellent lecture, but disagree about travel. In the current pandemic, closing borders has bought some countries time.
And yet the UK govt dithered and prevaricated for weeks before taking the right actions. Many companies did not bother to wait for the gov't to give advice, they took actions which have long been known and are blindingly obvious to be effective such as work from home.
We were 2 weeks behind Italy, this again was easy to see when you take one look at the numbers. Did the govt A) decide not to try to catch up with the ongoing disaster Italy is in by taking decisive measures or B) Decide to kill half a million people because they can't look at a bloody chart and say oh hey, look where that is going.
Yeah, it was B) the herd immunity option, we are all supposed to play Russian f**king roulette. Thanks a bloody lot.
Kie 7077 There needs to be some serious enquires about this once we are through this initial phase. Something has gone wrong.
Kie 7077 Prof Whitty remark at 43:15 is extremely prophetic! He states that “epidemics will always follow Civil Unrest and Disaster” ... and remember, during Jan and Feb in the UK there was a significant volume of both ... with Brexit and VAR causing untold unrest, and the severe weather events. While in the US ... blighted by the disaster and civil unrest of having someone like Trump as President. Hence both counties were doomed from the outset. The total lack of early data from WHO and China didn’t help either ....
I remember watching this before I knew Chris Whitty is a big deal with the UK government. I thought to myself wow, he's a superb presenter. His speaking and communication surely has a big piece of success, but of course he's a genius. It's great to watch this.
He is the government advisor on Covid
I feel totaly sick they all knew all information and what was coming and still chose science and done nothing to prepare or protect everyone espically the vunerable and very ill from this highly infectious transmitting virus. It's all viral now the goverment and medical advisors are finnished it's what we thought all along, preplaned to thin out the uk population, there lack of response give the game away months ago.
I have to watch this for biology. Also was anyone else jumping when they heard the coughing and sneezing 😂😂
Best tutorial for plague inc. on youtube.
This is very interesting, he certainly knows what he is talking about,lets all do our bit and flatten that curve and self isolate.....
Hi Chris, do you think that R0, R etc can work well for RESPIRATORY illness? The problem is that we need to take account of temperature, because there are many examples in the literature of temp triggering resp illness. Will Covid go away in the summer? We don't know, but it's always good to get a fundamental insight if we can. Then models can be updated with new info quickly. See eg colds and flu in th Netherlands in 1925 - 26 to see the problem (and suggestions)@t
But why is it useless to screen people at airports or close boarders ?
Because one can carry the virus with no symptoms.
Symptoms might not show for 2 weeks, they might catch 1 of a 1000 people with it that can actively spread it.
because, allegedly, 50% of people are infected with no symptoms - carriers. (I guess, so even if you are screening, your goin let 50%of infected people pass by you, without even knowing)
Funny how his advice allows people into the country from highly infected areas; without checks, no compulsory two-week quarantine needed...
That's no way to stop a pandemic - he should re-watch this.
I get we shouldn't blame foreigners and that the disease jumps from animal to human, but if it jumps due to human farming/market practices then surely that must be challenged.
No its racist if you blame China for all the diseases they create. Only a racist would point that out. You should just wait for the next disease to come out of China that kills the whole world rather than criticize their animal welfare practices. (Sarcasm)
What he say sounds reasonable. And it looks like Governments around the world are addressing this pandemic the way he is saying here. He does say at one point about age and nutritional status being important in determining if a virus can spread. He also says a prosperous, war free population with good sanitation, housing etc, are less susceptible.
Yet his main focus is external controls and measures to stop a spread. It's what he is not focusing on that worries me most. Humans have immune systems and if we focused on improving our nutrition (which is the root cause of insulin resistance diseases like type 2 diabetes, and is a major contributory factor in cancer and heart disease), we could simultaneously lower mortality and suffering in the major killer diseases and improve our ability to avoid viral and bacterial infection taking hold or being so severe.
The fact the chief advisor to UK Government on this pandemic has a predominantly external focus with little or no focus on improving internal health status is terrifying to me.
eg science says exercise is good. It reduces susceptibility to infections of all sorts and improves mortality outcomes if infected. But advice was close gyms. Studies show vit D deficiency increases the risk getting of covid by nearly double. Stats recon 70% of USA are vit D deficient. Another showed severity of disease is massively reduced in those with sufficient levels of vit d.
Prof Whitys advice to UK of lockdown measures has proven ineffective. Ie we are same as Sweden. We need someone advising the government who takes everything into consideration who doesn't make glaring omissions. Whity himself says that pestilence follows war. And the forcing of people to follow bias science is driving us toward the kind of civil unrest that he himself says will cause more disease.
Question: regarding viral overload in high aerosol level wards, might diffusing tea tree oil within those rooms reduce transmission to staff?
Clever chap, he'll go far
He got things wrong, him and Vallance.
PrinceZappa - he doesnt run the country. He puts choices - Boris the butcher Made the decisions.
Said everything but nothing was done
you weren't listening
Great lecture! Will be sharing this with colleagues and family.
How to control pandemics... Turn your television off.
47:07 "We will have another pandemic" - So eerily true.
yeah, wonder how he knew!
Cant believe this. This guy should be put in charge...............
I'd be interested to know why coronavirus was off-the-radar, and whether there are any other potentially high-risk types of virus other than influenza.
We have many Coronavirus within society all the time, so no, it wasn't off the radar. The likelihood of other deadly viruses, not just influenza starting to spread and cause epidemics and/or pandemics are always pretty high. We've just been quite lucky up until now.
Our preparedness for this pandemic had been an absolute disgrace!
22:10
@@tintintb1980 Our preparedness? Do you mean the whole planet? How do you prepare for an event that is once in about every 100 years?
Interesting that Gates and Obama were mentioning it 4/5 years ago as a possibility.
Corbyn menrioned the NHS at risk in dec 19
Excersise Cygnus showed the vulnerability of the NHS in 2016 - but its still a Tory secret for now. Boris the butcher
Thks & request an update
Who is here trying to allay panic in 2020?!
Dr John Bergman and several others. Most others are part of the government scare machine.Once this is over heads should roll, the government is guilty of total hype and most death will be recorded as the virus. If you have several underlying circumstances health issues you could be in trouble.
Remember to wash after checking the news..
He couldn’t have known within a year we would be in a world wide pandemic.
It would have been a fair guess to make ANY year, so no, he couldn't have known, but I bet he wouldn't have thought anyone suggesting so was bonkers.
This IS 'the science' the UK [and US] 'governments DIDN'T follow as they claimed to have.
Dr Fauci certainly knew it. He said in 2017 that it would happen on Trumps watch! Interesting eh?
You keep telling that to yourself!
Holly Hocks Hahahaha oh really?
Yeah, right? Are you serious?
Watching in 2020...
🤔
44:04 war - heres what its good for
Chris Whitty is brilliant. Really knows his stuff! To think Scotland’s chief medical officer during Covid -19 was a gynaecologist 🙈
Extremely good presentation, and this new pandemic changes things quite a bit. It's interesting how vaccines are being touted as the solution where previously I would have assumed they wouldn't be attempted. Quite a few epidemiologists are skeptical about whether vaccines will work. It's interesting that treatment of certain symptoms can improve mortality risk, such as steroids in the inflammation phase.
People are paranoid about the vaccine but I'd get it assuming the experts are saying everything's kosher with the phases, including phase 3 of the trials.
Theres no substitute for time though and the compressed timeline for approval is what gives otherwise pro vaccination recipients grave pause for thought
45:55 bloody hell
Who’s here in April 2020 ?
lorrane not me
lorrane obviously ur another sad attention seeker who plagues RUclips
Should be how to cause a pandemic,,,big failings from government and the WHO should be, well I could say alot of things but will go with replaced
rodger van ochten I agree! The maths and science with the transmission of COVID19 appears to me to be quite easy ... but requires accurate data as soon as possible. Yet the sharing of data from China and WHO from the outset appears very poor, then other countries appear to have been very slow to acquire there own data (eg community testing), then very slow to react, and this has allowed widespread community transmission way before policy makers knew that was the case! Even now, there is so much data that is missing or is not reliable or maybe known but is not shared, such as the percentage of Asymptomatic cases.
Say it all the W.H.O and all governments are guilty of letting this virus spread guaranteed.
@@ModelRailway The WHO had to push hard to gain access to China & they upgraded their warning as soon as they saw it for themselves. China & the rest of the world was pretty much in shock & couldn't believe that this was actually happening (especially when most countries outside of Asia thought that they had over reacted to SARS & were depleating their stockpiles of SARS PPE).
This lecture didnt age well now did it ?
Here before 90,000 views at 20,000 UK deaths☠️☠️☠️🇬🇧
Recorded deaths in hospital but not care homes or at home. Latest estimate 40-45k
Banning travel is utterly useless??
Did BoJo get advice of “herd immunity” from him? Either Yes or No would make him really bad.
FFS, the covid 19 is a novel virus as in new one to deal with, hence he got his guess wrong for once
Lucasee Huang Heard immunity can work when you a) have a vaccine to vaccinate the community , and b) know for sure if both the infectious disease and the vaccine has produced memory immunity across the community to protect the vulnerable. Until now , scientific community has no answer to a and b. Stay safe and strong
It's claimed it was Dominic Cummings' idea. Also, Bojo, a libertarian, liked the idea of herd immunity. This herd immunity tactic was described in a news conference on Friday March 19th, everyone under 70 was told to act like normal and ignore the bodies piling up while the over 70's cocoon inside and die in their homes. But over the weekend of 20-21th March, Prof. Niall Ferguson's team at Imperial produced new calculations based on Italy's disaster and showed the results Bojo; showing herd immunity could kill 200,000. So Bojo abandoned that idea of Herd immunity and on Monday March 23rd he went on TV announcing much tighter restrictions. The death toll was already 335, the restrictions came too late.
Heard immunity does not work because a low fatality rate depends on having an intact NHS, able to treat every patient.
Most people can survive the disease (as Bojo did) with a relatively brief hospital or ICU stay of a few days, oxygen mask, CPAP & ventilators, that tides them over until they get better. However, if you try herd immunity you end up with a tsunami of sick heading to hospital (e.g. Italy) and people die because they don't get medical care. The fatality rate skyrockets. This is now happening in Ecuador, many many people dying at home from treatable viral pneumonia because they don't have medical care...
ruclips.net/video/XHsfjnRB-uA/видео.html
The problem with BoJo's version of "herd immunity" was that it was a dumbed-down version of the original idea, which involves vaccination against a known disease, not doing nothing and let people be infected with an unknown disease.
Did you see that policy suggested in this talk? For any type of epidemic? No epidemiologist advised that "mitigation until herd immunity" was the best way forward, or even *a* way forward (immunity isn't understood for this virus). They were presumably told that their suggested solutions were not acceptable, and had to work out other scenarios, which they did.
Dream come true for Chris...
The face of NHS... banning treatments other than paracetamol and oxygen until recently
Well he was wrong about the wealth in the UK stopping a pandemic and the associated deaths.
Yet ,about 200 of his peers disagreed..................
What am I doing here? I was watching UB40... Thanks Chris, spookily prophetic.
why was he talking about this a year before covid
Turn the TV off?
one of my favourite Dr Whittey I love listening to him
How to control the general public more like.
29 minutes. Not all Nurses are trained in PPE. This is a know. So why aren’t they trained and why is there not a stockpile of know amount of PPE for emergency use. The Government. Has failed completely. And a source that can be made in the country that can be implemented in a emergency, agreed with companies. When we now have to be self reliant, due to brexit. What have the government been doing ?
Because seasonal flu is such a big risk we maintain stocks of PPE. In addition resulting from Operation Yellowhammer the UK identified sources of PPE for no deal Brexit and made supplementary stocks to deal with it. If you want to comment and criticize in a public forum I respectfully suggest you get your facts right first.
Gary Galt There is an emergency stockpile of medical supplies (much of which includes ppe) that is kept in the event of a pandemic, but this has - for whatever reason - been allowed to shrink in value by 40%, or over £325 million, since 2013. This wouldn't have helped matters recently.
Edit: Also, the firm to which the handling of the stockpile was outsourced, was sold off in recent weeks.
48:40 Whitty says that "banning travel is utterly useless".
I wondered if the UK government had been lying when it claimed that "scientists" told them restricting international travel during a pandemic would have almost no effect. As of April 14th 2020, eleven thousand people have died in Britain PRECISELY BECAUSE no quarantine was imposed on overseas arrivals. Those responsible for this appalling mass murder should be prosecuted.
Red Alert well spotted and totally agree! And that’s a major question mark ... as Prof Whitty states earlier within the presentation, the key to getting an epidemic under control is reducing the ‘R’ value below 1 ... also containment strategies to reduce spread .... yet the approach to a Flu epidemic implied that this would not be achievable, to imply to let it spread. However, as we’ve already seen within the COVID19 pandemic, going ‘hard’ and ASAP to stop travel, has really worked in many countries ... and many other counties adopted this strategy, but far too late.
Exactly - you know I don't presume to be as learned as these guys in their field - but sometimes you need to get your head out of the books and just bloody LOOK at what is happening in the world around you. You can only 'model' so much. We all SAW what China was doing - having to do - around Jan 23/24th. Locking down many millions of their own citizens. Not even China does that lightly. That was an absolute klanger of an alarm bell in my view. It doesn't take a genius to work out what happens if you can infect other people before you show symptoms yourself - and whether people like it or not that information also came out of China in January. From that point on we should have assumed and prepared for the worst, even if just in case.
Even now it's inexplicable borders are still open- as one of the few island nations in the world the UK has an opportunity to get rid of the damned thing but still allowing travel will mean they'll never get rid of it. They'll be stuck with sickness, deaths and restrictions for years to come. At first I just felt it was incompetence but the longer it goes on the more I feel you're right - a prosecution wouldn't be unwarranted.
Far too little, far too late.
The first tested case was recorded in the UK on the 30th January, so assuming 14 days incubation this would have required closing the borders in the middle of January, probably way earlier, to stop any cases arriving in the UK. I presume the point is that closing the borders later on makes little difference as community spread then far outweighs the cases coming from overseas (like the USA right now?), and I would assume there would be little political appetite for closing the borders early enough, before it had visibly arrived in the UK. A bit like ordering PPE and ventilators only after it is clear we have an epidemic in the UK. Such is politics - I'm sure Boris was advised what could happen, and I'm also sure he ignored that advice right up the day he turned up ashen-faced and told us 'loved ones will die'.
This comment shocked me but also answered the question of why Britain seemed very lax in their airport regulations once it became obvious that most of our earliest cases were coming in from Italy and Europe. Nigel Farage was a voice in the wilderness crying out that the borders and airports be monitored. No one listened, they preferred to hear only a scientific perspective despite the fact that pharmaceutical companies have the greatest motivation to see an epidemic reach pandemic proportions. Will Chris Whitty apologise to the nation for giving poor advice. No more than China and the WHO will accept culpability for suppressing and misinforming the world about the reality of this disease. Wake up world!!!
what an intelligent, kind and principled man. I admire him.
He got things wrong, him and Vallance.
Wooooooohhhhha ...reading this as we near the peak of corona.....did he know it was coming ?
That guy got roasted on social media.. but ive just had my eyes opened.. I feel a lot better now.
I feel reassured when Prof Chris Witty gives his advice at the daily Government briefings....so interesting to see this video and learn more about infectious diseases! Hope everyone is keeping safe and well xxxx
They will probably make a movie about it. The Bat and the Dinner Table.
"It could actually get worse, so think about that if you're feeling cheerful!" - Woah Harsh!
It's prolly killed 80% of humans a few times , it's nature's way , of retrieving you
Interesting to see how he basically knew nothing then (“closing airports and transportation is utterly useless”) and still seems to know very little now... smh
Why aren’t ppl like Jeremy Farrar in the government??
Stand back ,nothing to see here ,
Waste of 53 minutes, the answer to the question How to Control a Pandemic? Is simple, do exactly the opposite of the UK government
3:29 These kinds of pandemics can come from a single sneeze!
Yet the UK have the worst death rate in Europe.
Makes you proud to be British 🇬🇧
What are you doing?!
11:45 Don't change do we?
Pandemics and How to manufacture them and Control the public - Whitty should be an expert - he needs challenging!
I didn't know he is a professor!
He's gained more credibility as a result.
No previous solution was `stay at home for 4 months.`
And it's fair to say that we have learned from that
Who got this in their recommended?