2016 doesn't look like it had a major topping because USA missed out on the euforic last prize hikes. But if you look at the european markets in 2016, you can see it.
I think you're missing one significant part of uptrend market structure here, John. Market structure isn't just higher lows, but also continuing breaks of structure, ie higher highs. In market reversals, BEFORE you see higher lows, you will see a lower high, or highs that don't get broken (a double top).....this is a precursor to reversals. By your theory, by the time you see a lower high, you could be down significantly and the recovery of the lower high (the creation of the lower high) may be quite minimal, meaning, you're getting out of your position quite late and at a greater loss.
IMO personally, I think we are near exhaustion but I think we will still see another push higher due to euphoria from rate cuts then downturn like 2022. But what do I know. Market decides what it wants to do.
@@elonmusknewsnetwork this is why I don't predict, I just use a 10 SMA. If it's below, I'm out. If it's above it, i'm in. This way I can always get in and out early, and if I'm wrong, I can always get back in or out again with minimal loss in both money and time
@@elonmusknewsnetwork Very surprised he's only looking at lows. Lower highs are the alarm bell, and he ignores them until it's too late. Poor advice when you're only looking at half the equation that is market structure.
John, lower highs are already in, clearly visible, lower lows on weekly will be in 2 weeks... inversion of the big trend is happening... it's not emotional, it's logic
What about the inverted yield curve and 10% of stocks holding 75% of the entire market cap as they did in 1929? What about the fact that BTC has already topped at USDT.D confluence with the weekly linear support trend which is always a local top for BTC and it's been front running the other indices and sold off in advance as you would expect from risk on assets? What about the monthly bearish divergence on SPX? I'll give you that we may get a slightly higher high as market makers shoot for shorts but, at this point, why would anyone take the risk with every single indicator for a depression present?
as much as I agree with you, it's also prudent to trade the chart that's in front of you. Don't front run the market just on news and "sentiment" gauges. You can assassinate a president and the market can rip higher. The chart can tell you what's coming before the narrative (bullshit news story) is made up to justify the chart. And we all know it's too late by the time the news story comes out.
@@progthegod2166 Not with the yield curve uninverting. I've already done extremely well and there's no point being greedy on the heels of a depression.
Because the Vix will go and stay above $30 increasing the daily avg move of the SPX go from $40 to $80 per day making trading more profitable and more predictable. No one is happier about a market crash than a good day trader using futures and or options.
Your explanations are fantastic, John! Thank you so much for this.
This is a breath of fresh air in a sea of click bait fear mongering. Thanks John.
I second this, it's been brutal if you've been looking at any analysis vids this weekend, John is indeed a breath of fresh air
Thanks
I know nothing about trading/ Investing and I'm keen on getting started . What are some strategies to get started with ?
As a beginner, it's essential for you to have a mentor to keep you accountable.
I'm guided by a widely known crypto consultant
Mrs Anita Fred
This is correct, Anita Fred strategy has normalized winning trades for me also and it's a huge milestone for me looking back to how it all started.
Isn't that the same Anita Fred that my neighbours are talking about, she has to be a perfect expert for people to talk about her so well
My friend till the end
....the trend.
If you look at the down trend before the last rally and use the same logic, we broke the last higher low only to continue lower again???
2016 doesn't look like it had a major topping because USA missed out on the euforic last prize hikes. But if you look at the european markets in 2016, you can see it.
6:10 i got faked out in early 2016 because it broke trend, made a lower low then rocketed back up to the highs and beyond.
Can you look into Bitcoin too?
I think you're missing one significant part of uptrend market structure here, John. Market structure isn't just higher lows, but also continuing breaks of structure, ie higher highs. In market reversals, BEFORE you see higher lows, you will see a lower high, or highs that don't get broken (a double top).....this is a precursor to reversals. By your theory, by the time you see a lower high, you could be down significantly and the recovery of the lower high (the creation of the lower high) may be quite minimal, meaning, you're getting out of your position quite late and at a greater loss.
IMO personally, I think we are near exhaustion but I think we will still see another push higher due to euphoria from rate cuts then downturn like 2022. But what do I know. Market decides what it wants to do.
@@elonmusknewsnetwork this is why I don't predict, I just use a 10 SMA. If it's below, I'm out. If it's above it, i'm in. This way I can always get in and out early, and if I'm wrong, I can always get back in or out again with minimal loss in both money and time
I agree. After the interest rate PIVOT it will be. S&P will hit 6,000.
Didn't you have this video last week!
Major double top
Airplanes can keep flying higher, but when it runs out of gas it will crash.
QQQ just made a lower high... I think we will continue to run up until end of 2024, then 2025 downturn like 2022 market.
Past does not predict the future.
Jesse Livermore stated when the market goes down and breaks a prior low watch out below!
lower high already and especially the Nasdaq mate!!
I think he's only counting higher/lower lows but agree, lower high not a good sign.
@@elonmusknewsnetwork Very surprised he's only looking at lows. Lower highs are the alarm bell, and he ignores them until it's too late. Poor advice when you're only looking at half the equation that is market structure.
John, lower highs are already in, clearly visible, lower lows on weekly will be in 2 weeks... inversion of the big trend is happening... it's not emotional, it's logic
na.. we will go higher. Nothing is clear...
I can count 10+ potentieel lower highs in this massive bull run since 2010... you need more then just lower highs ...
No.
What about the inverted yield curve and 10% of stocks holding 75% of the entire market cap as they did in 1929? What about the fact that BTC has already topped at USDT.D confluence with the weekly linear support trend which is always a local top for BTC and it's been front running the other indices and sold off in advance as you would expect from risk on assets? What about the monthly bearish divergence on SPX? I'll give you that we may get a slightly higher high as market makers shoot for shorts but, at this point, why would anyone take the risk with every single indicator for a depression present?
because people want to make money if you want to make money get boy 5 contracts on the mes 500 and buy ur mom a house wensday
as much as I agree with you, it's also prudent to trade the chart that's in front of you. Don't front run the market just on news and "sentiment" gauges. You can assassinate a president and the market can rip higher. The chart can tell you what's coming before the narrative (bullshit news story) is made up to justify the chart. And we all know it's too late by the time the news story comes out.
@@progthegod2166 Not with the yield curve uninverting. I've already done extremely well and there's no point being greedy on the heels of a depression.
Why are people obsessed with market crashes?
Because the Vix will go and stay above $30 increasing the daily avg move of the SPX go from $40 to $80 per day making trading more profitable and more predictable. No one is happier about a market crash than a good day trader using futures and or options.
👍
What about the double top pattern in SPX (S&P500) ?
If we make a lower low that’s an indication of the double top, no confirmation yet
🤦
market going down just face the fact bro........its a HARD LANDING or maybe NO LANDING ...............how the hell we going up?
Forever bull
This guy sucks...hypes and flip flops. Shocked he even has money left