very good discussion although I notice that some speakers still do not understand the Chinese ancestral group mind. all along, china always tries to co-operate and learn and assimilate others that is why foreign invaders bring in their culture and technologies and got assimilated but also at the same time contributed some of their culture and tech into the Chinese culture and way of life so it was the view at the top where china still look up to and tried to copy the best aspects of America. after Trump, that view has been shattered forever, the important difference is that before trump, any Chinese government effort for hi-tech will work half-heartedly because American tech is more accessible and better and so it prevented any homegrown tech from really growing, again, that ancestral group mentality at work, easier to just copy and assimilate than do the basic research those techs that did grow was mostly due to American tech being shut out of the china market, other than huawei, like alibaba, weibo etc that prevent this mentality from working and forced original work to be done. now, after Trump has given the Chinese government a giant helping hand by making the whole of china sit up and feel threatened. so the Chinese government do not have to worry about trying to grow semiconductor or any forbidden tech that is being done half-heartedly, no, because of this " slap in the face to all Chinese people " the patriotic people of china " will rise up and prove to the world that they can do it and also make tons of money in the process to boot. there are many cases in Chinese history for such scenarios, in the long run, for sure, they will do it, the only question is how long will it take. now, they not only have the incentive to do it, but they also are forced to do it. so there is only one way, that is up. remember what happened with the space station and the supercomputer? given the population size and the ration of engineers and scientist, this may be where really cutting edge and strange tech may be discovered, I bet some of those tech companies may not do it the traditional way, maybe better to do a sideways shortcut, especially when there are too many similar tech companies doing the same stuff. For example: if it takes too long for going from 14nm to 7nm in semiconductor, how about doing it with more innovative circuits that requires less space or even fewer circuits but at super-duper speed, same results, i.e. faster processing. maybe trinary logic etc there could be more than one way to skin a cat, as they say, necessity is the mother of invention. who can be more driven than a guy with a mission and with money is no object. no need for some " government " to supervise them, you can trust them to be self-driven. that is the main and very powerful difference before and after Trump. so someday, trump's name will still be mentioned as the one who provided the stimulus for some really crazy future tech. we will all know the situation within 5 years for sure. worst case, even if they take a long time. China has always been self-sufficient historically and they ( especially a centralized authoritative government can easily ensure that their industry has at least their own domestic market to survive even without subsidies to grow up eventually. I also would not be surprised that some Taiwanese ( by the way, they are also Chinese ), Koreans and even Japanese may be in the centre of it all, you can see the trend, semiconductor manufacturing at least has already been an all Asian affair. if the Americans do want to play? how about the Europeans, this is their chance to take over the Chinese market, although, the Chinese will now be aware of the risks of a European Trump as well. really interesting times, likely to end in a wave of innovations or " end of life " war.
The most interesting aspect of this program is the stark contrast between the depth of knowledge of industry experts and the pie-in-the-sky of think tankers. Our misfortune is that the latter determines our national policies.
CSIS are the top dog of think tankers. They try to put national interest ahead of money but money has change the vector towards one that puts security at risk This was a great conversion. they are on top on this. Biden needs to have Derek in a post.
The developing world has reached a stage which has created fears in the developed West and since the West prefers to decouple from the international scenario, can't the developing nations create their own pathway and follow their own course? It is certain the West is thinking that it is contributing to the progress of the West in a one-way traffic. Maybe the only immediate drawback is slower progress but I believe given the space and time the developing nations can compete!
In technological competition, one needs to understand the difference between stock and flow. China’s stock (measured right now) of STEM graduates is probably about 30% more than the US. This is up from about a fifth of US levels in 2000. This was accomplished through massive investment in higher education which increased the FLOW of STEM graduates to 8x US levels... in 2016! It is likely at 10-14x now. These trend lines will continue until ~2035 when China reaches steady state and has 4-6x the STEM graduates as the US (about 60% of the world total). China did not innovate much in the past because it lacked human capital. Now, by most metrics (and we can quibble over data) China has nosed ahead of the US in innovation. By 2030, there will be no quibbling given current trends. Now... what’s the plan?
I have money and I know what I want and want to buy this item from your store. You are not willing but will sell me something I don't want or already have. I will leave your store and keep shopping. No?
Great commentary. Loved the expertise that they bring to the table. I have one comment that are kind of left out of the conversation. One (this is more a big picture idea) the whole competition on chips actually depends on Economic growth between China and US. As long as China can continue to grow economically it will continue to pursue policies that are while expensive are more independent from the US control of chips. The economic picture is a more complex conversation because US lags behind China in growth. (not taking into account fudging of the numbers or PPP).
How far are they willing to put their foot where their mouth is moving ? Hey VW : Can you stop your expansion in China ? VW : Hey Murica, can you stop Walmart doing business in China ? How realistic will this cooperation among allies to boycott China fly ? Maybe they can replace their sales with India trade ?? VW & Walmart could make it big in India ....
very good discussion although I notice that some speakers still do not understand the Chinese ancestral group mind. all along, china always tries to co-operate and learn and assimilate others
that is why foreign invaders bring in their culture and technologies and got assimilated but also at the same time contributed some of their culture and tech into the Chinese culture and way of life
so it was the view at the top where china still look up to and tried to copy the best aspects of America. after Trump, that view has been shattered forever, the important difference is that before trump, any Chinese government effort for hi-tech will work half-heartedly because American tech is more accessible and better and so it prevented any homegrown tech from really growing, again, that ancestral group mentality at work, easier to just copy and assimilate than do the basic research
those techs that did grow was mostly due to American tech being shut out of the china market, other than huawei, like alibaba, weibo etc that prevent this mentality from working and forced original work to be done.
now, after Trump has given the Chinese government a giant helping hand by making the whole of china sit up and feel threatened. so the Chinese government do not have to worry about trying to grow semiconductor or any forbidden tech that is being done half-heartedly, no, because of this " slap in the face to all Chinese people " the patriotic people of china " will rise up and prove to the world that they can do it and also make tons of money in the process to boot.
there are many cases in Chinese history for such scenarios, in the long run, for sure, they will do it, the only question is how long will it take. now, they not only have the incentive to do it, but they also are forced to do it. so there is only one way, that is up.
remember what happened with the space station and the supercomputer? given the population size and the ration of engineers and scientist, this may be where really cutting edge and strange tech may be discovered, I bet some of those tech companies may not do it the traditional way, maybe better to do a sideways shortcut, especially when there are too many similar tech companies doing the same stuff.
For example: if it takes too long for going from 14nm to 7nm in semiconductor, how about doing it with more innovative circuits that requires less space or even fewer circuits but at super-duper speed, same results, i.e. faster processing. maybe trinary logic etc
there could be more than one way to skin a cat, as they say, necessity is the mother of invention. who can be more driven than a guy with a mission and with money is no object.
no need for some " government " to supervise them, you can trust them to be self-driven. that is the main and very powerful difference before and after Trump.
so someday, trump's name will still be mentioned as the one who provided the stimulus for some really crazy future tech. we will all know the situation within 5 years for sure.
worst case, even if they take a long time. China has always been self-sufficient historically and they ( especially a centralized authoritative government can easily ensure that their industry has at least their own domestic market to survive even without subsidies to grow up eventually.
I also would not be surprised that some Taiwanese ( by the way, they are also Chinese ), Koreans and even Japanese may be in the centre of it all, you can see the trend, semiconductor manufacturing at least has already been an all Asian affair. if the Americans do want to play? how about the Europeans, this is their chance to take over the Chinese market, although, the Chinese will now be aware of the risks of a European Trump as well. really interesting times, likely to end in a wave of innovations or " end of life " war.
The most interesting aspect of this program is the stark contrast between the depth of knowledge of industry experts and the pie-in-the-sky of think tankers. Our misfortune is that the latter determines our national policies.
CSIS are the top dog of think tankers. They try to put national interest ahead of money but money has change the vector towards one that puts security at risk This was a great conversion. they are on top on this. Biden needs to have Derek in a post.
The developing world has reached a stage which has created fears in the developed West and since the West prefers to decouple from the international scenario, can't the developing nations create their own pathway and follow their own course? It is certain the West is thinking that it is contributing to the progress of the West in a one-way traffic. Maybe the only immediate drawback is slower progress but I believe given the space and time the developing nations can compete!
In technological competition, one needs to understand the difference between stock and flow.
China’s stock (measured right now) of STEM graduates is probably about 30% more than the US. This is up from about a fifth of US levels in 2000. This was accomplished through massive investment in higher education which increased the FLOW of STEM graduates to 8x US levels... in 2016! It is likely at 10-14x now.
These trend lines will continue until ~2035 when China reaches steady state and has 4-6x the STEM graduates as the US (about 60% of the world total).
China did not innovate much in the past because it lacked human capital. Now, by most metrics (and we can quibble over data) China has nosed ahead of the US in innovation. By 2030, there will be no quibbling given current trends.
Now... what’s the plan?
I have money and I know what I want and want to buy this item from your store. You are not willing but will sell me something I don't want or already have. I will leave your store and keep shopping. No?
Mr Clete and mr Derek need to calm down with the politics and let prof William Shih speak more, the host Dan Wang, should have stepped in the debate
I have to admit, this was brilliant. Very high quality presentation. Thank you for posting.
Great commentary. Loved the expertise that they bring to the table. I have one comment that are kind of left out of the conversation. One (this is more a big picture idea) the whole competition on chips actually depends on Economic growth between China and US. As long as China can continue to grow economically it will continue to pursue policies that are while expensive are more independent from the US control of chips. The economic picture is a more complex conversation because US lags behind China in growth. (not taking into account fudging of the numbers or PPP).
This was awesome ☺️ really plenty to think about
Good subject. Thanks.
Could you please post links to the rest of the series in the description?
Best debate on the issue I have heard,
How far are they willing to put their foot where their mouth is moving ? Hey VW : Can you stop your expansion in China ? VW : Hey Murica, can you stop Walmart doing business in China ? How realistic will this cooperation among allies to boycott China fly ? Maybe they can replace their sales with India trade ?? VW & Walmart could make it big in India ....
1:25:00
Now they are planning to expand the export control and adding COMAC on the list.
Trump will always give you surprise.