Re-Evaluating the Chinese Economy
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- Опубликовано: 3 фев 2025
- They couldn’t be more different in population size, political system or economic dynamics, but the parallels are striking. Just as Japan struggled mightily with deflation, a rapidly aging population, rising debt levels, and overleveraged real estate in the 1990s - the so-called “lost decade” - so too is China. Do Chinese policymakers have the tools and fiscal capacity to avoid “Japanification?” Benjamin Deng, Chief Investment Officer, Ping An Group, Fred Hu, Founder and CEO, Primavera Capital, Gary Rieschel, Founding Managing Partner, Qiming Venture Partners, Jennifer Welch, Chief Geo-Economics Analyst, Bloomberg Economics discuss with Tom Orlik, Chief Economist, Bloomberg Economics at the 2023 Bloomberg New Economy Forum in Singapore.
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I have come to really DOUBT any Bloombery Narrative and Outlook!!!
Bloomberg is beholden to the CCP with offices in Beijing and Shanghai, Bloomberg paints a rosier picture than reality so they can operate there.
Wow, if you want to know about China watch the China update. Gives actual facts and figures as he works in China. America bought by China and pays off your corrupt politicians e.g. Biden and his corrupt family.
Eric Li made an excellent speech in Malasia three weeks ago. He is the real China hand.
I bet Eric Li was super confident about China!
Agree!!
@@Andy-Pand backed by data and not Anglo-myth.
@@hdvoice what myth what data?
@@Andy-P what what
For Two decades, Anglo-American press has been telling us Chinese economy is going to collapse any day.
And it has !
@@scottgordon1781 : Wishful thinking
I dont know about that. I remember in 2013 hearing that China will overtake the US by 2020 and that BRICS are the future. Now, out of the BRICS countries, only China and India are bigger economies than they were in 2013. China is clearly slowing down. I would not bet against CFhina because it is innovative, but I dont think that China will overtake US in the next 10 years by nominal GDP.
@internationalinvesting4336 LOL BRICS it's only China. China herself already bugger than US, just take a look at their investments in 154 countries. Read Anglosaxon medias good for ur brain
Going from double digit growth yo single bigot growth in the past 10 years means china’s economy is changing you dummy 😂
Let's not forget Japan's so-called "lost decade" is brought on by in part if not completely by US coercion. Yup, the same coercion US is accusing China now.
Wu Mao Army $0.50
Source: I read in my bong cloud
China has only one man to blame. Group think and group speak. Isn't that blindly obvious. Very easy to blame everyone else.
@@radiofreecanadatruth hurt your butt. Grow a pair..dooooch
@@radiofreecanada freecanada🤣🤣🤣
Depression in china’s property market is not due to its economic but an intended one. Not many countries can be like China to restructure its economy by kicking out property investment. We all know property investment forms a large part of many countries’ economy but it is also a weak point if it is being too manipulated by big international players. To maintain stable growth for many many years to come and become the no.1 economy in the whole world, china rather go for growth in traditional trading, innovative and manufacturing sectors instead of property. Also curbing property price is a strategy adopted by China government to allow the citizen to own affordable houses.
Hopefully sidestepping the problem that Canada is enduring at the moment.
Real estate is a quarter of Chinese GDP, either directly and indirectly from supporting sectors. It is a huge drag on the economy, the property sector is heavily indebted, overly leveraged and there is no way out of it because the Gov can't underwrite this type of loss. Not to mention, the average Chinese already prepaid for these properties and they've no way to claw back the loses. Mind you, China is a middle income country with GDP per capita at $13k per year. You add this problem to Xi's over reaching regulatory push into entrepreneurship, removal of any disinter that challenges the status quo and pushing foreign capital out, the economy will stall !
@@BristolBerg你的数据是落后的，实际上房地产占GDP的比例在7%左右，算上水泥钢铁等上下游产业也才14%左右。你这25%是多年前的了，习决定打击房地产的2018年时，房地产占GDP的比重就已经降到10%以下了。
@@BristolBerg你把外资看的太重了，中国每年入超就有万亿的美元，国内根本不缺钱。今年储蓄率还创了新高。10月CPI还跌了0.2，完全是生产过剩。现在中国缺的是市场，欧美日韩进出口都在下跌，需求下降，而全球南方国家的需求增长没能覆盖老牌发达国家的需求下降，多生产出来的货物涌向国内市场，虽然10月销售额创新高，但国内市场也无法完全消化这么多的货物，导致CPI还下降了0.2。
最可怕的是，明年也看不到欧美日韩复苏的可能，这边的市场可怕还有下降的风险。
@@hulei666确实。中国人存得钱在中国银行存的太多了。两年前就存了10多兆。这是什么概念？美国一年gdp才多少？中国人民的存款就有10多兆？而且人民不创业不找银行贷款。银行还要支付人民的利息。这才是中国政府最头疼的事情
China is doing two things at once: collapsing and threatening U.S. dominance. It depends on where the US aims its magnifying glass.🤣🤣🤣
I don't think they believe the first point. Just the second.
Er….China is not collapsing
@@amunra5330 Gordon Chang has been telling you that China is collapsing for decades; you don't believe him？
........even Gordon Chang has new book out " China's Plan Destroy America " he is probably sick of the old title of " China Collapsing" last twenty years.
Anyone who thinks China gonna collapse is silly. For every American talent under 20s, China have 6 of them. The future is bright for China and its youth. An average 16 year old American teenager education standard is only equivalent to a 12 year old Chinese
5% growth is better than most countries in the world today. Correct me if I’m wrong. I think it’s the highest growth today as other is 0% or negative .
To be honest, for any emerging country after so many years of double digit growth. It’s now second in the world. 5% in post Covid time should be impressive.
A good early correction is better than bubble keep going without solutions. Unlike some country just continue printing money.
Doesn't matter, nothing good about China will be said. It has little to nothing to do with facts.
The 5% growth won't all be quality growth as Xi puts it. Half of that growth will be financed by debt
Funny how people still think growth per se is good.
Economic thinking from a century ago.
Chinas growth comes at an enormous cost for their society. I rather happily live in a free country with way less growth and a healthy rate of transformation.
Er , last year did not even meet their expectations only 3.8 % their figures !
not believe the official a bit at all, all you need to see is this year is first time in 40 years has negative foreign investment, which means more people pull out than people invest in China, even worse than 1989 after the Tiananmen event. what drive China's economy is comsumption, investment, and export, as export falls, the rest will fall for sure, China does not have the consumption to absorb all their manufacturing capacity, which means a lot of factories are closing and more and more foreign order cuts, there is no way their economy is growing if anything, their economy is shrinking, 5% is a makeup number, see how many people going back to their village is the real indicator of current state of China economy. look no further Shenzhen's population is shrinking fast, and their real estate is in free fall, this is the real indicator.
People try to predict the economy not realizing it is not a capitalistic market, its a command economy, central planning! my concern is, instead of having much dollar in bank that could lose value to inflation, do I save in gold to reserve and grow wealth for now, or just hang on?
truth is that gold serves as an inflation hedge in the long run, but not profitable in the short run. only thing you can predict is a strong effort of wealth transfer from the people to the powerful. luckily some folks find solution in financial advisors
Sure, investing is plain-sailing with the aid of an invt-specialist, thus I've always delegated my excesses ever since the rona-outbreak in January 2020 using a shrewd advisor, and my investments have compounded by at least 300%, summing up $820k ROI as of today.
@@Pamela.jess.245 That's fascinating. How can I contact your Asset-coach as my portfolio is dwindling?
My Financial adviser is ‘’JULIE ANNE HOOVER’’ she’s highly qualified and experienced in the financial market. She has extensive knowledge of portfolio diversity and is considered an expert in the field. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market
@@Pamela.jess.245 Thank you for this tip. It was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her resume.
China is doing what the West should be doing, ie. alleviating poverty. The West just increase it.
The increase in poverty in the west is a result of China's growth. Offshoring has been terrible for the west.
This evoked the US business communities’ enduring trade relations with potential adversaries such as Germany and Japan, until they were abruptly severed by direct wars.
Except in this case it's with a current adversary 🤣
The story of fenta and ibm 😂
Dear friends: Hello! I am a farmer and worker from the bottom of China. Facing the authoritarian and authoritarian Chinese model, it challenges the constitutional and democratic systems of the world. Democratic countries around the world must have a deep understanding of and understand one fact: since the CCP came into power in 1949, hundreds of millions of Chinese farmers have worked hard to pay public grain, agricultural taxes, free construction of water conservancy projects, which provided the CCP with financial primitive accumulation at the beginning of the founding of the People's Republic of China. Under the family planning policy, Chinese farmers were forced to abort, tie the ring, and pay fines for excess births, Farmers are restricted by the household registration system in rural areas and cannot freely move their population, living a life without human rights and welfare like slaves. During the three-year Great Famine from 1959 to 1961, it is conservatively estimated that 40 million people starved to death, the vast majority of whom were rural residents. After China's reform and opening up in 1980, the vast majority of farmers entered cities to work as red sweatshop workers, construction workers, and environmental sanitation workers, working the most tiring and dirty jobs with the lowest meager wages. They were unable to enjoy the benefits and benefits of urban household registration such as housing, medical care, elderly care, and education. Due to China's household registration system, the children of Chinese farmers and workers can only stay in the rural areas where their household registration is located to receive education, This has led to the world's largest tragic situation of left behind children and elderly people living alone in rural areas in China. Today, China is the second largest economy in the world, but the farmers and workers who sacrificed the most get negative welfare treatment, while civil servants and senior officials of the CCP government enjoy privileged and high welfare treatment. The Chinese government utilizes the advantages of low human rights and cheap labor to attract a large amount of international financial capital investment, making China the world's largest red sweatshop. The low prices of products produced in China are due to the fact that Chinese farmers and workers work overtime for extended periods of time with only meager wages. Most importantly, China does not have independent trade unions outside the government to fight for fair welfare benefits for farmers and workers. To change the current situation of unfair competition in the global trade market by the Chinese government using this low human rights "advantage", democratic countries around the world have the responsibility to urge and pressure the Chinese government to demand an increase in the human rights and welfare protection of the majority of bottom Chinese people. The trade sanctions of the United States and the anti-dumping measures of the European Union cannot solve the trade deficit problem at all. Only by improving the human rights and welfare benefits of the majority of Chinese grassroots farmers and workers can the economic interests and labor welfare of democratic countries around the world not be harmed (such as the policy of reducing welfare benefits proposed by the left-wing in the United States). If the human rights and welfare standards of Chinese farmers and workers cannot gradually match those of workers in democratic countries, then the human rights and welfare standards of workers in democratic countries can only gradually match those of Chinese farmers and workers. Therefore, democratic countries around the world have the responsibility to help all Chinese farmers and workers at the bottom of the human rights voice to comprehensively exert pressure on the Chinese government, instead of turning a blind eye to implement the appeasement policy, nor can they just emphasize Xinjiang, Tibet The human rights situation in Kong and among dissenters can only be maintained by improving the human rights and welfare protection of the majority of lower class Chinese people in order to maintain fair competition in the global trade market. Only by constantly putting forward human rights and welfare accountability to the CCP government, demanding the establishment of free and independent trade unions and farmers' associations, forcing financial disclosure and budget transparency, will China gradually embark on the path of constitutional democracy. A democratized China is indispensable for the stability and peace of the world, and it is also a responsibility that the whole world cannot evade, because we are all citizens of the Earth. I hope that wise people from all over the world can work together to make democracy and constitutionalism overcome authoritarianism, good currency overcome bad currency, civilizatiovercome barbarism, and make this world a better place.
To evaluate China's economy, it is better to invite Victor Gao. I'm pretty sure that would be a very interesting and dynamic duscussion.
@elgarxu9636，
No, not victor gao, the most wanted person and real China expert is Gordon Chang.
For him, China has been, is and will be collapsing forever. LOL.
yes lets have the King of Vitriol who wants to Punish every country for even speaking....School bullies fade away
@@waynegore5291Gordon Chang is one of the most dishonest people I've seen. He has an agenda and it fits the US rhetoric. China is our competitor but lying to ourselves isn't going to help us.
lmao, I think you need to really question your own statement. If not your mental faculties, no offence brother/sister.
@@waynegore5291
😂😂
The speakers in this discussion are very much misleading about the Chinese economy. If you believe them you will lose your investment very badly.
In the first half of 2023, China's real GDP growth rate was 5.5%, and electricity consumption increased by 5.0% year-on-year. In the first half of 2023, the real GDP of the United States increased by 2.6% year-on-year, YET electricity consumption in the US FELL by 3.5% year-on-year.
US is printing money.
Because the money printing machine is more energy efficient
we are talking about %!
Interesting argument...even though need to be compared with multiple sets of data or more details interm of type of economics and respective nature...
I severely doubt China's gdp figures. There are manufacturers nonsense to say the least. There are many ways to falsely boost gdp figures and sadly china does all of them. The sad fact that the ccp are fooling themselves and making the people suffer from it.
For what been displayed in the last 2 decades..Economical & political impacts, implications & outcomes..China need to stay strong,firm & focus on its innovations & growth.Remain neutral not interference on others domestic political issues.Continue to promote economic cooperations,global peace & harmony & climate challenges.The world need that pillar to move forward with less worries & stress on poverty & kindness in humanity.Wish next decade or two..move peaceful world to live with less or no conflicts between mankind.❤ Love & Peace✌️to all.
The past decade of BRI has proven as collaborative peace projects compared to NATO 2014 Ukraine coup up to today's human shields
What about conflict over Taiwan and the Phillipines?
@@Andy-P 如果没有美国以前派舰队干涉，中国早就统一，也就没有所谓的台湾问题
南海和平法案，所有的南海周边国家，就差一个菲律宾了，😂 你猜菲律宾最近为什么一直和中国有冲突？？
Will not happen
Have these guys looked at the gdp growth or lack off … of the G7/G20 countries 2023?
❤❤ 1:34
❤❤ 1:46
❤❤ 2:01
00:15 中国经济增速明显放缓
03:12 中国房地产行业正在经历严重调整，价格下跌，开发商面临压力。
09:20 中国的创新经济强劲，影响着医疗保健和半导体等各个行业。
11:55 美国正在采取措施限制中国获得尖端半导体。
16:23 即将举行的美中会议旨在缓和紧张局势并促进务实主义。
18:51 中国房地产业低迷，需要更多刺激措施
25:10 中国短期前景不明朗，但高质量增长仍有潜力
27:48 建立信任对于中国经济改革的成功至关重要。
32:58 台湾、中国和美国之间日益紧张和不信任构成了全球经济风险。
35:17 保持联系并投资于中国经济，否则你会后悔的。
39:53 投资中国的长期潜力
Crafted by Merlin AI.
不错，这个AI，怎么搞的？
尊敬的各位同仁：您好！
我是一位来自中国最底层的农民和工人。面对极权专治的中国模式挑战全世界的宪政民主制度。全世界的民主国家必须要深入了解并明白一件事实：自从1949年中国共产党执政以来，中国的几亿农民辛苦种田向政府缴纳公粮、缴纳农业税、免费修筑水利工程、为中国共产党建国之初提供了财政上的原始积累，在计划生育的政策下中国农民被迫人工流产、结扎上环、缴纳超生罚款，农民被户口制度限制在农村不能自由人口流动，过着奴隶一样没有人权和福利的生活。1959-1961年三年大饥荒期间保守估计饿死四千万人口，其中绝大部分都是农村人口。1980年中国改革开放以后绝大部分农民进入城市充当红色血汗工厂工人、建筑工人、环境卫生工人，拿着最低的微薄工资干着最累最脏的工作，无法享受城市户口的住房、医疗、养老、教育等福利保障待遇，由于中国的户口制度使得中国农民和工人的子女只能待在户口所在地的农村接受教育，导致中国出现全世界最大规模的农村留守儿童和孤寡老人无人照顾的悲惨状况。如今中国已经是全球第二大经济体，但牺牲付出最大的农民和工人群体得到的是负福利待遇，而中国共产党政府公务员和高官干部却享受着特权高福利待遇。中国政府利用这些“低人权”廉价劳动力的“优势”吸引大量国际金融资本的投资，让中国成为全球最大的红色血汗工厂。中国生产的产品价格低是因为中国农民和工人的超长时间加班也只有微薄的工资，最关键的是中国没有独立于政府之外的工会组织为农民和工人争取公平的福利保障待遇。要想改变中国政府利用这种低人权“优势”在全球贸易市场进行不公平竞争现状，全世界的民主国家有责任督促和施压中国政府要求提高大多数底层中国人的人权和福利保障待遇，美国的贸易制裁和欧盟的反倾销根本解决不了贸易逆差问题。只有大多数的中国底层农民和工人的人权和福利保障待遇提高了才能让全世界民主国家的经济利益和劳工福利保障不受损害（如现在美国左派已经开始提出缩减福利保障的政策）。如果中国农民和工人的人权和福利标准不能逐渐向民主国家劳工看齐，那么民主国家的劳工的人权和福利标准就只能逐渐向中国农民和工人看齐，因此全世界的民主国家有责任要帮助全体中国底层农民和工人的人权发声向中国政府全面施压，而不能视而不见实行绥靖政策，也不能只单独强调新疆、西藏、香港以及异议人士的人权状况，只有提高大多数底层中国人的人权和福利保障才能维护全世界的贸易市场公平竞争。只有通过对中国共产党政府不断提出人权和福利问责、要求成立自由独立的工会农会组织、倒逼财政公开、预算透明，最终使得中国逐步走上宪政民主之路。民主化的中国对于全世界的稳定与和平不可或缺，同时也是全世界都无法逃避的责任，因为我们都是地球公民。希望全世界的有识之士一起努力让民主宪政战胜极权专治、让良币战胜劣币、让文明战胜野蛮，让这个世界更加美好。
@@holiday8473 有病
Bloomberg does good work on evaluating economic growth. HOWEVER economic growth is proportional to the rate of destruction of the ecosystem and global wartime; these factors need to be accounted for in the economic model and they are not considered; this a harder problem.
🇨🇳 China's transformation and global perception over the years.
00:53
China's population was young and workforce growing in 2007, but the situation has significantly changed by 2023.
China continues to innovate in sustainable energy and electric vehicles.
Xi Jinping's crackdown on corruption and the Belt and Road Initiative driving economic development.
💼 The speaker discusses the property market in China and the need for a correction, as well as their investment strategies.
06:34
The property market in China needs a correction due to a previous bubble and heated momentum.
Investors should stay stable with their allocation strategies during the lower phase of the economic cycle.
Different parts of the property market in China will behave differently, with trendy rental properties and real estate investments in infrastructure being of interest.
🌐 The US is shifting its approach to technology and China, moving beyond national security concerns to focus on technology leadership and its impact on industrial capacity and the workforce.
12:39
The US has historically restricted China's access to technology primarily used for military purposes, but is now also concerned about the role of technology leadership in industrial capacity and the workforce.
There is a shift away from the traditional neoliberal approach to technology, economics, and trade in both political parties.
The lines in technology are becoming more blurred, with advanced semiconductors having both military and commercial applications, and a blurring of who is developing and using the technology with civil-military fusion.
! The upcoming U.S.-China summit is not expected to produce major deliverables, but could lead to the establishment of new working groups and dialogue mechanisms to manage the competition between the two countries.
16:44
Both sides have taken steps that the other does not appreciate, such as the chip restrictions from Beijing's perspective.
The tensions between the U.S. and China will not go away, but the summit could help dial down the tensions and make both sides more pragmatic.
The last couple of years have seen a shouting match across the Pacific, but now the leaders are engaged in talks and minister meetings, finding ways to work together as necessary.
📈 Chinese entrepreneurs are currently lying low due to uncertainty about the commitment of leadership to reforms, but once China commits to the rule of law and market reform, confidence will slowly but surely come back.
23:59
China needs to implement true rule of law to protect copyrights, entrepreneurs from political interference, and create a sense of security in the entrepreneur community.
The speaker is optimistic about China's long-term outlook and believes that China has the potential for high-quality growth in the next five years.
💰 China needs to establish a more sustainable capital market structure to reduce reliance on the property market for savings.
29:53
Market interventions by the government, such as buying stocks, are seen as a mistake.
The lack of quality analysis by most investment banks in China compared to foreign counterparts is a problem.
There is a need for more competition in the financial services market from global players, as promised as part of WTO.
📚 The East India Company learned from China's civil service system in 1806, and John Murray Forbes invested money in China in 1834.
35:55
The East India Company recommended the UK government to set up a civil service system based on China's national examination system.
John Murray Forbes brought back money from China and invested it in Boston.
The wealthiest newborn in the world today is a Chinese.
The next dictator of China you mean? True: it's hard to compete with ownership of 1 billion souls.
Back in 2010, China’s former premier, Li Keqiang, who died 10/27/2023, had described the figures as “man-made and therefore unreliable.” “One of the first and most important points he makes is that in China’s Leninist system all information is political and can be designated a “state secret” at any time if the ruling Communist party decides it does not help to bolster the party’s own legitimacy and power.
“Data and statistics are so often manipulated by party cadres whose career advancement relies very heavily on them meeting various top-down targets issued by Beijing. This book is timed very well - just as the crowd of self-proclaimed China hands based all around the world has begun to multiply exponentially.
“It is impossible to understand what is happening in China by just looking at the data published by the government.”
One has to look at data for electricity consumption, bank lending or rail freight volumes to understand the real state of China’s economy. Given the problems with the shadow banking system, focus on electricity consumption as its key metric.
-Electricity consumption is core to any economy, and reflects real-time demand as it cannot be stored
-A picture of a slowing economy is also confirmed by data on China’s oil consumption.
-China exports fuel on a semi-regular basis, also suggesting a slow economy.
“Some US based China investors like to focus on GDP numbers, as it gives them the illusion of knowledge. The rest of us will be much more cautious. No matter what the official numbers may say, China’s actual GDP may well be negative now or in the near future.
When it's actually the U.S. that faces much huge economy challenge and much greater potential of a recession and much bigger debt problem, all conversations and medias choose to ignore it and turn to talk about China, the country which has no inflation issue yet still have at least 5% expected GDP growth this year, higher than any major economies in the world. To be honest, I almost have never saw any economy forums discuss about US economy problems, especially the exponentially increasing US debt problem. Anybody help explain why?
China is running out of energy, clean water and food........good luck
@@steveg6978 Wow!!! Crazy!!! China is going to collapse again!!
@@steveg6978haha I just laugh how NA people got brainwashed.
Because 5% growth and shrinking is not enough for China to get a high income country and pay off its debts.
5% growth is great for a developed country, not for a developing one
The world needs USD, so the US can keep printing more USD and know that people will take them
Super panelists, with good knowledge and understanding of the current situation in China.
The PingAn guy is right and brave to be so outspoken
Ben is so positive about Chinese economy. Good for him.
I wonder why they did not invite Gordon Chang...
that would be too embarrassing
Or Peter zeihan
@@applebee9060you mean Gordon Chang 2.0 LOL
Lol
@@iamsheep wonder who’ll be 3.0…….. 😄
3 MEN & A REALIST: There was no re-imagination that emerges in this discussion sadly. The 3 men, who have made their careers in an erudite of Sino-US bonhomie seem unable to adjust to the new realities. The lady was mostly spot on. The property sector is sink8ng like the Titanic, demographics are badly off for China, New rules make private investment dangerous and risky. The new reality is China is WELL PAST its Best by date. Period.
Sure, she isn't running billions dependent on the whims of a communist government. How many ( Entrepreneurs ) have ( disappeared )
Chine wins China Lose, failing to recognize the Global south force is on the rise is the loser mindset
Listening to analysts who live china is never transparant enough.
Eric is managing 4 Trillions Chinese Yuan, which can only be invested in Chinese market. Being confident with Chinese economy is his only option.
Not so, for Eric if apply on Chinese project, enterprise to Chinese Venture Partnership worldwide, piggie back on the BRI projects, helping opening up Chinese products worldwide, etc... There are venture profit product of Chinese contracting worldwide like in UAE, Algeria, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Myanmar, Indonesia & etc.
Wow but the whole world is de Dollarizatio , you’d better be careful with US dollars
yall should stop comparing China to Japan. China runs its own economic policies, whether ppl like them or not; Japan does not.
The wealthiest newborn in the world is born in China. As they inherit the wealth of 14 ancestors tax-free, curtsy 3 generations of one-child policy implemented by China. From wealthiest to most affluent is automatic in a Capitalist society. Today, Communist China does Capitalism better than America does. As they are the factories of the world. The meritocracy-based political system in China will beat any Democracy. Today, China produces 3 X STEM graduates than America & Europe combined. To judge their quality, visit any top STEM university in America to find they beat their classmates hands down. No wonder they have started registering more international Patents than America does.
Having a "booming real estate market" is never a good thing. Affordable housing is only possible with slow and steady growth.
Homes are not an investment but a right. If the Chinese middle class loses their life savings this surely will have an impact
This man is dishonest, the reason that the industrial policy hadn't work was because of US doing everything it can to make sure it fails. While the US was trying to sweep the memories of it bullying Japan under the rug, the rest of us haven't forgotten the unfair conditions of the Plaza Accord
This is interesting. The global concern over China policy risks have markedly increased even a month later. And it's looking less careful and measured, and more hack and slash. Bullishness was maybe the wrong call.
It is a measured policy action, with careful investigation of the surrounding? what a blunt assessment of the situation of the property market with a declining population.
Who sponsors this Channel ?
Congratulation. The discussions today are quite balanced ,and the speakers are quite objective,very unlike many similar discussions in the West which are usually misinformation/smearing/West's wishful thinkings
The key different is there isnt a plaza accord in China. Second, unlike Japan, US state department is not embedded in Chinese government. 3rd, unlike Japan, Chinese has no obligation to listen to US.
Japan chooses to be an ally of America
These people are far to optimistic towards China. The problem with China is xi. I would like to see this same meeting in five years and hear their views at that time.
@@paulmaher3358 The problem with the world is you. See how ridiculous your comment is?
Yep, exactly, unlike Japan, there is no plaza accord with China.
@@walking_luggage8105 plaza accord wasn't responsible for Japan's slow growth. Was her economic policy.... as China is finding out. Unable or unwilling to change to an economy mainly driven by domestic consumption aka " internal circulation". Is China going to blame America? Of course it will.
It's important to note that China's economy is maturing. A maturing economy cannot sustain high GDP growth. So China's slowing GDP growth of 4-5% is normal and fully expected.
Nevertheless, China's growth still outshines that of any of the G7 economies.
China will be the only "matured" economy that has no enduring technological dominance in any sector (low tech assembly of high tech foreign components into a domestic plastic shell, vis-a-vis high speed rail & mobile phones doesn't count) or a matured social safety system and systemically ingrained higher wages that allows normal matured economies to thrive in a low-growth environment.
It's more accurate to say China took its shot at surpassing the middle income trap, missed the mark by miles, and will now have to endure stagnation without ever having achieved enduring prosperity.
@@CaptainFluffy6644 Nonsense. China utterly dominates the EV and battery industries. China utterly dominates the solar panel industry. China utterly dominates the 5G and communications industries. I could go on and on.
@@CaptainFluffy6644 To call 4-5% "low growth" is absurd. Most countries would give their eye teeth for that kind of GDP growth.
China still has decades more strong growth.
@@CaptainFluffy6644you are retarded if you think China is just low tech assembly
@@CaptainFluffy6644 Jeezus, a whole essay displaying you dont even understand the basics of economics. Stay fluffy I guess
Fred Hu is much more on the point. His insight and recommendations are right on. China needs to free its own people, it’s own entrepreneurs and their creativity, not so much foreign capital and freedom financially services.
A Recent PEW ( AMERICAN ) Survey showed that 88% of Chinese believe their government is doing a great job and see a better future for their children. A similar survey in America showed that only 28% of Americans felt similarly.
After all, the Chinese are enjoying the best period of their 4000-year history. The wealthiest newborn in the world today is a Chinese. All this is done without firing a single bullet across its Borders.
You need to learn from Chinese rather than advise them.
And create extreme inequality? Nah
He sounds like a stock/property investor. Right now China is not interested in "animal spirit." They want to reward companies that do R&D and push real economy forward. That is people who build real stuff.
yep #FreeChina
@@marcs5117 No, what is currently going on makes huge inequality. Normal people earning 150 dollar per month, while the rich elite make almost everything. FAR WORSE than the west.
After reading a year of real estate bad news and being influenced by the pessmistic sentiment, my key input today is stay invested in China. Thanks for sharing the confidence and insights.
More like gtfo while you can.
The problem with China stocks is that there is no proper Audits on the companies. So a lot of fake too positive numbers come out scamming western money. So yeah go invest but on your own accord. So in western companies that operate in China. Not in Chinese companies themselves which are not audited properly according to western standards. Stay away from those.
You have ghost towns of finished and unfinished skyscrapers. You have huge chinese real estate companies being protected from defaults. Any Chinese stock you in the US or in China does not give you voting rights, nor do they mean you own a part of the company. It is just a fake piece of paper. Chinese youth cannot find worthwhile jobs, and won't have children. Chinese star innovaters/entrepreneurs are imprisoned if they step out of line. Accredited accounting firms are not allowed to investigate Chinese firms, so any numbers they release can be made up (See Luckin Coffee). And your conclusion is to stay invested?
If this panel just met 2 weeks ago, doesn't the "starting " impact of what China could achieve her chips manufacturing without TSMC be considered?
SMIC that makes Chinese chips, almost uses exclusively western machines. There are no alternatives. Production in China runs on Western machines. The whole world economy is melted together everybody needs each other. :)
It would be great if Bloomberg goes to Germany, UK and the US to do a similar talk and dissect their economies. They probably won't do that because its much easier to criticize and find fault in the 'others'
The pragmatic and efficient approach of Deng Xiaopping is better suited for today's China 🇨🇳.
In nowadays China the quality of population plays the important role, instead of the quantity. Now, China is not “Cheap labor”, “Massive production” and “Toys assembly” any more. The number of Chinese engineering students graduating every year is ten times that of the USA. Alone in 2021 more than 10.7 million Chinese students graduated from university while 3.1 million in USA.
Meanwhile, solar panels, electric vehicles, and AI (upon which China is placing such great hopes) were all invented by the West. Not to mention the internet and the very platform we're now conversing upon.
Poor sods. The unemployed and under employed PhDs.
Most people in China who work still only get 150 Dollar a month. Which is still nice for cheap labor. And a lot of Chinese Engineering students can't find a job why is that? Im from EU and i already signed a contract with a company when i didn't even finished my university !!!
@@Kilimanjaro5896 yeah while they can just move to USA and EU and get big salaries and have a VERY VERY good life. Only the smart ones do that.
@@HermanWillems 1. As my observation, since COVID19 a lot of private businesses were seriously impacted, although they are recently under the recovery because of the government support. Same as the west when we walk on the Chinese street we can see the closed small businesses with empty windows and store rooms everywhere Those small private businesses play the most important role of social employment. 2. In other side, since the western high tech sanctions Chinese government invest huge amounts money, it desperately needs much more such kinds of high tech young labors. China has the world most engineering students. The only question or difficulty among them is how to find their most preferred and high paid positions. 3. Nowadays China is still called as “The world factory”, it has almost all kinds of manufactures with huge amounts of available positions. But a number of young people still prefer their “lying flat” life style or they are used to be under the umbrella of their parents because most of them are the victims as spoiled kids because of Chinese previous one-child policy.
I’m very confident and optimistic that Chinese “dictatorship” government can easily solve this unemployment because since Chinese reforms it has been always one of their most important targets to every year performance review.
I live in China and have done for seven years. They keep calling it a correction but house prices have dropped 40-50% in many places. That’s not a correction, it’s a bloodbath. Chinese will now save, reducing domestic spending, at a time when domestic spending needs to increase. Add to the fact many adults are taking care of grandparents and children on the back of the house being a reward, it makes you wonder how tough Chinese peoples lives will be now that reward isn’t so shiny and valuable
I hope you are using a good VPN.
百分之四十😮 还许多地方 你真敢说
As a Chinese, I'm very curious as to which city in China has seen a 40-50% drop in home prices. Can you please tell me?😂
I do not think there is a parallel between Japan and China at all. Japan's overleveraged realestate market was a result of the Palaza Accord and the Japanese Yen was tied to the USD, which made Japan vulnerable to the USA policies. Also Japan heavily relied on export to the western market and they did not have a large enough domestic market because they only had 100 million people. China on the other hand has a large domestic market with 800 million people in the middle class, the household saving is at all time high, they just need to figure out how to make the Chinese people spend money and not just save money, then they will be all right. The aging population issue is over exggerated, even at the current estimate China will still have 1 billion people by the end of the century. But 80 years is a long time, and the aging population issue can be solved by lowering the home prices, which China is already doing.
what about accepting immigrants. i myself would love to be able to live and work as a middle class professional in china
a fun fact, that giant lcd screen on the back is made in china
You can never trust businessmen for county police and people, because they think that is not their concern
Mybe, due to their business and other interest in China, the picture they drew is totally wrong.
Jennifer is truly intelligent..
GDP growth is suspicious by definition.
without proper context it can be very tricky. "My number is higher than your number" game.
When your real estate sector fails, usually a depression follows. These folks are trying to keep their investors calm. Dishonest.
My thoughts exactly.
The real estate didn't implode, it's suffocated manually by ccp to avoid implosion as you described.
Leaving the people feeling impoverished and cynical about the power of the government to protect them. They will not be inclined to buy anything other than basic needs.@@andrewlim7751
Just continue to watch and realise how stupid you are.
I like Jin Keyu. Disappointing that she is not on the panel😂😂😂
Small yard and fence is not working. US is in the fence, ceding the world to China.
The only time the US was ceding to china was when the US considered them allies and not a threat that's what fueled there rise through taking over manufacturing and recourse exports to the world that bankrupted many businesses around the world and cemented china's global rule of a manufacturing hub. But with the start of Xi's Wolf warrior diplomacy, espionage and military intervention in the south china sea and Taiwan, the US now see's China as a threat to global peace and has started a tariff war and blocked Chinese exports of multiple products like phones and cars due to unfair competition and national security fears. The US has taken these dramatic actions in the defense of its self and the world order especially with the blocking of chips and and US workers to china. China way overplayed their hand and thought of themselves as untouchable when even though they are the second largest economy they are one of the most vulnerable...
@Ryan-sl2sj just look at the mirror..
0:36
That's an excellent way to put it: a property market correction. While the American and Japanese property bubble bursts could clearly be called "collapse", what happened in China was an active and controlled correction as the government turned off the capital flow to property development, to force it into other areas such as tech.
Most Chinese people would say the same thing.... but is that the real score happening now?
I doubt it!
GDP numbers that are reported continue to be way off. With exports declining, employment down, real estate in crisis, local economies going bankrupt, it is just impossible that China's GDP is anything but negative. But economists and analysts won't do anything but regurgitate what the CCP reports instead of doing critical checking of the real growth. It's quite sad.
Export is only down to u.s. other regions it is growing. Yeah, decoupling is happening
Exports declining,😂 bruhh they are the no.1 exporter of cars this yr, the Imf upgraded their their forecast of chinese growth. Real estate only forms 7% of the economy, even if the bubble pops the effects will be nowhere near to what the 2008 mess the US made. Most probably China will absorb the losses and manage lower growth in the coming yrs.
A country with trade surpluses always won. Contrary to 65% trade deficit plus mayhem federalization of abortion / killing license. Prosperity would hatdly kick in rampant woke Individualist society
Let me guess….. you must be either Gordon Chang or his student!!! 🤡🤡🤡
You deliberately ignored how strong the Chinese ev sector,chips,new energy etc are growing,which are replacing real estate well
Chinese panelists seemed to avoid addressing the significant issues in the Chinese economy. They also refrained from directly mentioning Xi Jinping by name.
All the guests answered the questions asked. Is it necessary to "directly mentioning Xi by name" in an economics discussion? But anyway I think Fred did that in his response around 24:00 mark, I could be wrong as I can barely hear him. Maybe it's better if you can share what do you think are the significant issues in China's economy?
@@wpgc2 it’s a subconscious reaction under a dictatorship regime, under which context economists and investors are not independent and rather fearful to express authentic views as opposed to the directions showed by the sole leader with unspecified tenure, this phenomenon is deeply rooted in Chinese culture and reality.
@@ClaudineLi You are thinking too much. If you want to view the economics discussion as political discusison, that's up to you. I don't think the moderator nor the participants mind about Fred's English accent. Thanks for the clarification anyway.
@@wpgc2 Regarding Chinese economic trends to observe, I agree with the moderator’s opening remarks, it served as a concise summary, however, the Chinese panelists intentionally diverted emphasis to the positive factors regardless of the multiple severe headwinds, which exactly followed Party’s latest rhetoric on Chinese economy: 唱响中国经济“光明论” trumpeting Chinese economic narrative of illumination.
@@wpgc2 I didn’t mention any panelist’s accent, if he mentioned Xi Jinping’s name, I could recognize. As a matter of fact, my background covers economics and investing, meanwhile, my original culture distinguished Chinese panelists’ unique behavior pattern. My verdict is that Chinese panelists beat around the bush with regard to the economic topics and delivered nonindependent views, you better check out both Chinese financial institutions’ source of capital, a necessary due diligence to filter away the subjective biases, investing 101.
0:19
4 words: GOING DOWN THE TOILET.
Please adjust the cc
Good to know that somebody is not bringing war and destruction to small defenseless nations around the world! bur prosperity and development!!
It seems that companies are attracted by China huge market potentials and low labor cost. Short term, profit most likely increase! However, the biggest risk appears to be loosing the company’s intelligent properties and gaining competitors with huge business advantages in just a few years!
Is there any possible that someone could tell me what’s the name of Fred in Chinese? I wanna to learn more about his background information
胡祖六
Fred is just wrong on many levels, the property sector in China is a government size Ponzi scheme… they have built enough housing for 3 times the population. The only reason isn’t hasn’t completely collapsed so far is due to the control exerted by the Chinese. The host is being too agreeable not too pessimistic.
@@sparktube2009 thank you
This is one sided presentation for Chinese government. The two Chinese guys are in the CCP interest group . The guy on the left side is the executive of Pan An insurance company which is Chinese government owned company,and he is actually CCP’s mouth piece which always speak for CCP. The old white guy is venture capitalist. He still wants to put more money into China, which is economically clashing now. It is wrong things to for Bloomberg to only invite CCP side of people to speak for Chinese economy, which will misleading general public of the world. Chinese economy is actually clashing now, millions of factories bankrupted, millions of millions of people losing jobs, the first two big real estate companies bankrupted, etc. people should stay away from China now. Otherwise, you lose money big time.
What would you expect of such panelists? This is ridiculous and they have skin in the game... the game is China, so China is doing great. Period. Don't be fooled! This is Chamath 101 tecniques.
The moderator is the only negative fellow 😅😅😅
Good discussion, thank you.
Realistic economy discussion, the three males panelists have a good understanding of Chinese economy of course not as good or has the granularity that Victor Gao can give in terms of Chinese economies
1.3 billion people. When was that? Seriously, a panel like this uses outdated data.
As an equity manager in HK for 20 years investing in China, it is clear that the country’s growth is more uncertain than ever. Xi Jinping has done a terrible job of managing the economy, Covid and geopolitics.
As an equity manager, you don't seem to look for the bottomline. With covid, China had a death of just several dozen thousands, the US had more than 1 million 200 hundred thousand. You are sying that China's economy is terrible but China's economic growth is 3x that of the US, do i need to tell you about Eu's growth?. With geopolitics, China is now the darling of most of the world especially the global south (152 out of the 194 nations in the world signed up to the BRI), the EU /G7/US only have each other, if not for their military might and bullying there won't be any other nations that will follow them. What have you been doing ofr 20 years in China, living in a foreigner bubble?
Yes, China has been booming for more than 20 years, and the 003 aircraft carrier is about to be launched. China has eradicated absolute poverty in just 20 years. Let me give you an example. Take Hangzhou, China as an example. The living standards of its population of over 10 million have reached the level of developed countries like Germany. China has more than 20 cities like this.
Your grief of losing your exceptionalism privileges in Hong Kong have affected your judgment. Better pack up and return to the place you have come from.
那你以为，怎么样治理才不糟糕？
As a equity manager, you must be a big loser! I feel sorry for those who let you manage their money! 😌
as long as the emphasis is for boom and bust economic policies/greedy capitalism going for growth are operational.which china to some extent followed economics cycles will be turbulant.slow steady state growth should be theway foward
A guy who doesn't do well in math, 10% ten years ago and 5% now, is completely different. The amount of $10 ten years ago and the amount of $100 now, do the math.
Love these guys, like the captain of the Titanic, they are saying do not worry; we will be fine. Sweet lying! LOL
No one force you to believe anything.
The biggest problem and potential barrier to China's progression to a fair and modern society is the lack of the rule of laws.
Because the US has a great track record. Our biggest company is a monopoly. 💀
🤣🤣🤣🤡🤡🤡
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
How do you get this conclusion?
These guys would have claimed that the Hindenburg just had minor, technical problems! LOL
About China, the main problem is not economy, it’s politics. It’s the elephant in the room, but nobody dares to talk about it😂
Parade of paid shills.
Why? Because They say some good things on China which you hate So much?
Oh you thought that China was going to collapse?? Lol
Robotics and ai is coming. The future factories are going to be built where there is people that can work with this and where there is cheap and abundant energy? Hardly.
bernie maddoff would say "stay invested" too
China population is getting older, because earlier Mao’s one child rules by forcing abortions in entire country. In mentality of people quickly adopting one child policies. Older people mostly got higher paychecks or more savings even after Cultural Revolution disasters. Almost most young or younger people must rely on their parents to help them. Except in farm areas. After Dung Xiao Ping’s economy boom, young and younger people were fully engaged making money from booming economy. One child policies and abortion deeply calved into people’s minds accompanied busy engagements into new economy, people’s minds began favoring own independence without burdens to raise their children and take care of themselves quickly. However, missed calculations of one day, population’s age can be getting older and harder or much harder to encourage having more children by raising 2-3 children from each young couple’s allowance instead of forcing abortions. China’s system usually operates very quickly, because one leader said so, quickly go down for all to follow and get done. One leader said no, also can quickly stop and start new ideas again. Somethings can be done very quickly. Also some mistakes also can happen too. China has massive peoples and much harder to manage for sure. Anything goes too quickly, side effects can accompanied together quickly. China used to only let people who had direct relationships in overseas to be able to leave China and immigrate. Gradually all will be able to leave China and go to anywhere in the world. However, China used to be an extremely iron fist Mao’s eras. Sudden and quickly opened doors toward the entire world without foundation of a free entrepreneurship spirit, freedoms and equality of opportunity foundation in their people’s mind as Western civilization’s basis, harder to be as Western society’s expectations, but improved their better or richer life to live and more modern infrastructures have built. However, how long to be able to last, how well can be improved instead going backwards, it depends only learning from Western civilization foundations gradually, getting along with advanced countries more friendly, reasonably by putting own feet into others’ shoes, engaging into good communications for peace in the world efforts by supporting America’s recognitions and principles and bringing own country towards freedoms, entrepreneurship spirit and equality of opportunities as more and better images as America’s recognitions and principles. Most Chinese people who love freedoms, entrepreneurship spirit and equality of opportunity will be happier to support quickly too.
Let Taiwan people to live more peacefully without fears by creating more business opportunities toward peace efforts. One day when China becomes freedoms, entrepreneurship spirit and equality of opportunity focused country, surely all will like to immigrate into China quickly too without worrying. America 🇺🇸 is a great example of showing why peoples want to come to America 🇺🇸 instead to Russia, Iran or China. However, they need to be America’s homeland legally instead of illegally by respecting our country America’s independence and sovereignty as any foreigners together. This is why freedoms, entrepreneurship spirit and equality of opportunity principles are the key importance for success of any countries. The peace efforts for longevity of the earth and living peacefully are all’s duties for efforts together to succeed quickly and effectively longer or forever.
China’s economy is robust ? Stayed invested in China?
Have I entered a parallel universe ?
🎉🎉🎉
Tks to 🇺🇸 and western’s sanctions 😂😂
China had risen a couple of knots upwards in both innovations and cutting edge industries like EV and 5Ga also clean energies 🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉
Maybe I am too steeped in my distrust of authoritarianism, but is there a case for saying that democracy and freedom are the best routes to improved Chinese economy?
Unfortunately no. What China is actually doing is trying to derisk from decades of excesses speculation and fix wealth inequality. Democracy and freedom unfortunately can't fix these particular issues. "Democracy" means power is concentrated by those who controls the media, and that's capital. "Freedom" means the state can't fight wealth inequality. Look at any democracy and you'll see that it currently does not have a mechanism in the system to address these two issues.
第一个人说：即使政府昏暗如晚清，你们也该继续去中国捞。第二个人说：不论发生什么，这艘巨轮动力强劲，不会撞冰山。第三个人说：中美两国别吵了，赚钱第一。第四个人说：我想政治家们应该听听商人们说了些什么。，，，，哦，原来他们在泰坦尼克上
也许他们说的对 只不过你不想听罢了😅
Oh guess what the west is on titanic as well 😂 their democracy is failing them
They are fear of making comments about China’s reality, or they don't want to survive in the region.
While they told us Chinese market is slowing down, they buy stock cheaply. 😅😅😅
Financial guy diverts , does not answer the question , he still gets paid while investors lose their shirts !
China needs to focus inside and grow slowly but steadily. After all, despite the recent years fast growth, this country still has a huge numebr of people living in poverty. Fred Hu was right to the point. The government needs to let the law to rule not by any super hand. From history it's not hard to see China is NOT a nation that is inquisitive towards other countries but somehow the whole Western media talks about the military threats from China (the Australian government even stupid enough spent billions of taxpayers hard-earned money on new submarines) which justifies US's theory of confining China's economy growth with tons of restrictions. The politicians are definitely playing all these a game. Why does the US government always think itself as the world police just because they helped in WWII? yes you helped but this doesn't make you entitled to interfering in other countries affairs. Nobody wants war but if PPC is to take Taiwan, and if the US is to interfere, citizens from both sides will only suffer more and longer. and the world economy too. And US, think of how hard the Palestinians life already are if you really want to help.
I found the discussion by Arthur Kroeger at the Hoover Institution much more insightful and in depth. It also had some excellent charts.
These people have to read the book on Rise and fall of the EAST ( Exams, Autocracy Stability and Technology) to better understand Xi
don't worry about China's economy because it had been collapsed for the past two, three decades. how about the American empire's economy and its unsustainable debts?
Letting China take out tech and manufacturing was stupid, full stop. Ken Griffin implied we were dumb to not let them steal anymore. If that were the case, we’d have nothing to withhold from them 😂😂
His ( Ken Griffin) collaboration with MEGAN MARKLE and HARRY says it all doesn't IT!!!
These people are living in parallel universe. Red China is using the stolen technology to threaten the neighbors and help Russia carry its war crimes in Ukraine.
yes, utubeuser you are the real dump!
Fred: um um um
What's happening to Chinese property market is fundamentally different from what happened in the US because the source of funding both debt and equity all came from external sources which are now rapidly being withdrawn. Forget about reform if you have no money there is nothing worthwhile to reform, end of story. Between decoupling and the unchecked capital flight there is nowhere to go. That outflow would first have to be stopped and the lost funds would have to be replaced and then reforms might generate growth for there to be any progress. The government mandated pretense among the investment community that the dual loss of manufacturing revenue plus the flight of capital of high net worth citizens is really just a Monty Python "flesh wound" ultimately leaves only one possible outcome and we are merely milking the process for RUclips videos and arguing about how long it will take. If the flood of capital flight is not stopped immediately it's all over.
If flight of capital is caused by decoupling why would US stop this successful policy?
haha loved the Monty Python "flesh wound" reference.
I suggest that China should allocate resources.
i would place a wager in gold to personally again use my uber account to get reprimation
Trying fancy lipsticks to make a pig look sexy! LOL
The West (we) must continue to push hard to decouple entirely from China. We must ban work/ student visas in all industries but the arts. All Chinese owned companies must be prevented from further trading, under national security grounds, starting with the least critical industries. And perhaps most important, all Western brands (including German) must be prevented from investing in any China based supply chains.
The time for political correctness and spinelessness has long passed. We can ill afford another Russia.
there's no West interest. there is only American interest. American couldn't force all the European to follow American interest especially after the gas pipeline was blowed up by American.
Decoupling completely would only end up with a more divided world and create greater division. Students studying abroad is a positive thing, they learn about western culture and over time I can’t see how this is a negative. Sure…protect your key areas such as AI , but if we start to create walls that will set us all back. I do agree that we don’t want another Russia and Xi is heading there because the economy is so damaged, it might be the only way to save the CCP……which is ironic because these experts don’t seem to recognise the real dangers..
@@HH-jq2gx Sorry but you're living in 1970s naivety - wake up and smell the Chinese coffee!
In my opinion, it is a bad time to invest in China bcz of U.S.-China tension.
Money is safer in other developing countries.
Пауза рук - функциональные кнопки, приборы добавились пробкой на сборке