I'm glad there's a good chance the remaining (former) Yugoslav countries have a good chance of qualifying since they don't have North Macedonia, Montenegro, and Bosnia now and 2/3 of them have had trouble qualifying the past few years.
yesterday at Madrid Party Blanca did another version with an extended break at the end, so now we're not sure wich one she will use in Liverpool. i'm so proud that Chanel last year and Blanca now are giving 200% of themselves in each party, each presentation has new wardrobe, a little change in the song, really, what a difference with past years. Also it seems Megara are ready to try again at Benidorm Fest next year, I'll be all for it, sending a rock song will be another twist of style from us.
thats kinda crazy that she can just do all these different versions. i love this leftfield strategy that Spain has developed in these 2 years. it's wild to think how bad they were as recently as 2021.
Best bets now imo: 1. Finland to win (around 400% return on money) 2. France to win Big 5 (around 450% return) 3. Belgium and Portugal to qualify (around 60% return on both of them)
@@luisfernandez4057 not an actual prediction but this scenario it's underpriced imo. You get very good money if that happens so a risk worth to take (imho)
Oh yeah Slovenia qualifying at 1.85 was definitely the bargain of the season, one had to be fast though because it went down in minutes after placing my bet! Now they're trading where they should be so around 1.2 - 1.3. Sorry I only speak in decimal odds, never used the fractional system and can't really understand it 😅 Great video anyway though! Edit. Finland winning semi 1 is still great value imo, available at 1.75 - 1.8. I really don't see anyone else taking it in a televote only system.
Oh wow yea 1.85 for Slovenia qualifying is awesome! Good call on Finland winning, that’s a good one too. I’ll use decimals for my next video cos it seems more people here use that
I get sometimes very confused because I have always used factor system in betting, where it tells number you multiple your bet if winning. So much easier!
Yea that’s true. It’s difficult as we almost exclusively use fractions in uk and Ireland but I agree that The factor system is easier to visualise what you’d earn from the bet. I might put a poll up asking what people are used to as im comfortable speaking in either. Or I could put some graphics up showing what both equate to
@ESC Tom Exactly, factor system is easier to get if you are not used to betting. But I think more important is to understand the differences in odds when comparing partisipants in Eurovision. Some graphic could make betting more clear but I am not sure if it is that important
its also a great time for a bargain tho. Anyone who guessed Moldova or Portugal top 10 last year at this time would have made a fortune. Theres a suprise sitting there right now worth a lot of money - its just very difficult to pick it 😅
@@ESCTom Moldova usually has good staging though. Chances that something positive was brewing were high even though almost everyone in the ESC community and bookies had them pretty low in their tops.
@@ESCTom Tip: Malta top 10. They are my personal favourite this year. Portugal was last year. By the way, odds don't. People do, when it's time for it. And most people ARE nice most of the time.😊
i don't wanna encourage anybody to bet, it is a dangerous habit and can become a vice!! but the best bet i'm seeing right now is placing a big bet on spain to be the best of the big 5, it has 2/1 payoff. i mean it only makes sense if you place a big bet but it is a pretty sure outcome imo
I agree that it’s very likely. But I do see a world where France outperforms them. If I’m betting anything on Spain I’m somehow more comfortable just saying that they’ll win it all since it’ll give me far better returns
The surprise person that could beat both Finland and Sweden could be, as you've said, Ukraine, depending on their solidarity vote, so betting on Finland in the Nordic market rather than outright winner is potentially a good idea.
Yea i see what you mean. It’s giving protection against a Spain or Ukraine win. But then I also feel like if you think Ukraine might win, you can get 10-1 on them winning right now on betfair exchange, which is 5 times better
i actually have 2 videos im sitting on - a review of Unser and also the Serbian NAtional Final. I keep putting them off cos I feel like theyre too late to be released now 😭
We are normally on same wavelength, but that you're even considering Malta top 10???? I'd be amazed if it limps into the final...but it will beat Ireland!!
lol im not really considering them, i was saying if i had to pick someone from the bottom list, thats who id choose. they werent many other good options 😅 and yes, i did also note they won Luke's public poll 😊
Yea at this part of the season, It feels like you need to grab the good odds when they are released because after a couple hours/days everything decent will be gone . I don’t think we’ll see motion again until the rehearsals
My £20 is split for France for winner and top3. I might be wrong, but I can see split screen between Sweden and France this year. Another dark element for me is Israel.
France has really grown on me! Strangely I know nobody who is really excited about Sweden but everyone is expecting Loreen to win. 😂 Germany… no comment 😊
Hello Tom, do you think that those who bet on individual countries also take into account the diaspora, based on which a country could even qualify for the final, for example? Sorry if it's a bit of a silly question. Thank you for the replay.
yea i think its an important thing to consider for qualfying for the final definitely. for example, We've seen in the past that former yugoslav countries have benefited a lot from their close cultural connections, although this year that is diminished with 2 of them withdrawing and Bosnia still out of the competition. I think it has little to no effect on the winner odds though
@@ESCTomHow do you think this will then affect Slovenia? Although they have a good song, their diaspora in semi2 is very weak, could the inclusion of Spain, Ukraine, UK still shuffle the cards? (If I'm not mistaken, the rest of the world also votes in the semifinals, right?)
honestly i think the song is strong enough that itll go through. but yea theyve got albania, althought that wasnt former Yugoslav. the UK will like this type of music too i think. Yes ROW is voting in both semis
My comments are disappearing again. 😐 Second try: Greece did a gig in a small café the other day. He was clearly nervous. If he is nervous performing in a small café, how will he handle a big stage? I wouldn't put money on him. That nervousness will come through even more on a big stage. I had him as a qualifier but if he performs like in that tiny venue, he's an NQ.
yea i actually saw your original comment earlier but hadnt replied to it yet, so i dont know why youtube deleted it. Another commenter here, John, had this issue last year where literally 90% of his comments were getting deleted. I ended up contacting RUclips support about it but they were useless. Unfortunately comments are super low priority for youtube, theyve even talked about removing them as a feature. So they can be quite buggy. My advice is copy a long comment before you post it and don't put a link in. Other than that, John and I couldnt find the pattern in the actual message sent so we put it down to a phone connection or cache problem. anyway in regards to Greece, yea thats not good news for him. honestly i think 16 is too young. its fine if it all goes well, but if it doesnt work, that's a messed up thing for a 16 year old to process when theyre still developing. i hope he can perform well but i think its normal for someone so inexperienced to be so nervous
@@ESCTom Yeah, copying a comment is definitely the way to go. They can randomly disappear. RUclips support is usually useless. Yes for Victor I think 16 is too young. You really need to be an experienced performer for the Eurovision stage. Victor looked like he had never performed in front of any crowds before.
I kind of think Iceland in the semi final odds is a big steal. I can’t see someone with that kind of vocal ability and stage presence not qualifying in a semi that’s this weak. Really want to bet on Latvia to qualify but I’m always so conservative with my money and I’m terrified how a televote will react to them. One thing I’m really shocked about is the qualifying chance that’s being given to Switzerland- to me that song is a qualifier in a normal year but I don’t think there’s any chance it qualifies in a televote only semi. Just seems like such the typical song that would have been pushed through by a jury
Estonia is one of my favorites, but unfortunately I don’t think they are going to qualify. First, it’s a ballad which I don’t know if the audience will vote to. Second, they are 4th in the running order, which is a very bad place☹️
I think Estonia will qualify. Semi 2 is the weaker semi so it will be easier to qualify from it. There are very few ballads this year which means that people who like ballads will have fewer songs to choose from = they will vote for Estonia.
@@nian60 I agree with you, but I have multiple thoughts at the same time, so I don’t know what to think anymore😅. It’s really hard to predict who will qualify from the second semi-final. There are about 8 songs that are on the edge of qualification in this semi, so I really want to see what’s going to happen
I dont get why Ucraine is so high seeing the general vibe on RUclips it doesn't seem to be such a popular song, unless the bookmakers are confident that there will be a big'sympathy vote' but I think this year it won't be so big.
I wasn't quite convinced about France. Until my BF and one of his closest friends were raving about her (for the record, they are both German, but different demographics). So I kinda had to re-evaluate my prediction that Sweden would win with a land slide. I think it will be a tight race. Sweden, Norway, France, UK and - surprisingly - Austria are currently the ones I predict to land in the top 5.
![ARGENTINA vs. CHILE [3-0] | RESUMEN | ELIMINATORIAS SUDAMERICANAS | FECHA 7](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/De3AWmXzhuA/mqdefault.jpg)
Obsessed with the way you say Kääríjä
Tom is closer to the correct pronunciation than most RUclipsrs. Anyone who says Karia or Caridja is plain wrong. Käärijä is not a girl. 😄
NGL, his name is so fun to say 😂
It’s such a fun name to say! I can’t help but giggle every time I try to say it. 😅
@@nian60 I wasn’t saying he didn’t pronounce it right, just find it adorable
@@ESCTom I can tell!
Tom, I voted you up, you will not have the most downvoted Video again. Iam from germany but I am here for Finnland
Thank you Berta 🥰
@@ESCTom I will follow you. Not in a stalking kind of way of course
hahah thank you 😂
I'm glad there's a good chance the remaining (former) Yugoslav countries have a good chance of qualifying since they don't have North Macedonia, Montenegro, and Bosnia now and 2/3 of them have had trouble qualifying the past few years.
yesterday at Madrid Party Blanca did another version with an extended break at the end, so now we're not sure wich one she will use in Liverpool. i'm so proud that Chanel last year and Blanca now are giving 200% of themselves in each party, each presentation has new wardrobe, a little change in the song, really, what a difference with past years.
Also it seems Megara are ready to try again at Benidorm Fest next year, I'll be all for it, sending a rock song will be another twist of style from us.
thats kinda crazy that she can just do all these different versions. i love this leftfield strategy that Spain has developed in these 2 years. it's wild to think how bad they were as recently as 2021.
yep id also be very up for MEgara coming back, but will a stronger song. and it would be so different from Blanca and Chanel
I saw France earlier this day first in the top 3 odds😂 Now it’s back to normal. The odds are very weird this year😂
Yup , I also saw Romania as 11th in top 10 chance odds 💀
Yes, that's for sure. At one point POLAND was in TOP 3 duh... Dunno what's happening this year🙈
@@toky2590 What?!!! Hahaha😅
yea, I dont know if its errors when this happens or if someone is just placing a huge bet out of nowhere cos they got some insider information
@@ESCTom so interesting, imagine if this is true
Best bets now imo:
1. Finland to win (around 400% return on money)
2. France to win Big 5 (around 450% return)
3. Belgium and Portugal to qualify (around 60% return on both of them)
yea those are all good picks
France is not winning big 5 I think
@@luisfernandez4057 not an actual prediction but this scenario it's underpriced imo. You get very good money if that happens so a risk worth to take (imho)
Oh yeah Slovenia qualifying at 1.85 was definitely the bargain of the season, one had to be fast though because it went down in minutes after placing my bet! Now they're trading where they should be so around 1.2 - 1.3. Sorry I only speak in decimal odds, never used the fractional system and can't really understand it 😅 Great video anyway though! Edit. Finland winning semi 1 is still great value imo, available at 1.75 - 1.8. I really don't see anyone else taking it in a televote only system.
Oh wow yea 1.85 for Slovenia qualifying is awesome!
Good call on Finland winning, that’s a good one too.
I’ll use decimals for my next video cos it seems more people here use that
I get sometimes very confused because I have always used factor system in betting, where it tells number you multiple your bet if winning. So much easier!
Yea that’s true. It’s difficult as we almost exclusively use fractions in uk and Ireland but I agree that The factor system is easier to visualise what you’d earn from the bet.
I might put a poll up asking what people are used to as im comfortable speaking in either. Or I could put some graphics up showing what both equate to
@ESC Tom Exactly, factor system is easier to get if you are not used to betting. But I think more important is to understand the differences in odds when comparing partisipants in Eurovision. Some graphic could make betting more clear but I am not sure if it is that important
Odds before rehearsals are almost meaningless.
its also a great time for a bargain tho. Anyone who guessed Moldova or Portugal top 10 last year at this time would have made a fortune.
Theres a suprise sitting there right now worth a lot of money - its just very difficult to pick it 😅
@@ESCTom Moldova usually has good staging though. Chances that something positive was brewing were high even though almost everyone in the ESC community and bookies had them pretty low in their tops.
@@ESCTom Tip: Malta top 10. They are my personal favourite this year. Portugal was last year.
By the way, odds don't. People do, when it's time for it. And most people ARE nice most of the time.😊
At one point Croatia was the at the top of the odds for best Balkan entry. I should've taken a screenshot!
i have a feeling that once rehearsals are out, you might get another chance to take a screenshot 📸
i don't wanna encourage anybody to bet, it is a dangerous habit and can become a vice!! but the best bet i'm seeing right now is placing a big bet on spain to be the best of the big 5, it has 2/1 payoff. i mean it only makes sense if you place a big bet but it is a pretty sure outcome imo
I agree that it’s very likely. But I do see a world where France outperforms them. If I’m betting anything on Spain I’m somehow more comfortable just saying that they’ll win it all since it’ll give me far better returns
@@danieljessekaplan7034 that’s a good point actually
The surprise person that could beat both Finland and Sweden could be, as you've said, Ukraine, depending on their solidarity vote, so betting on Finland in the Nordic market rather than outright winner is potentially a good idea.
Yea i see what you mean. It’s giving protection against a Spain or Ukraine win.
But then I also feel like if you think Ukraine might win, you can get 10-1 on them winning right now on betfair exchange, which is 5 times better
I remember you mentioned doing a video on Ünser lid für Liverpool this year before. Just wondering if you’ve completely scrapped that idea?
i actually have 2 videos im sitting on - a review of Unser and also the Serbian NAtional Final. I keep putting them off cos I feel like theyre too late to be released now 😭
Never too late, would love to see those videos!
We are normally on same wavelength, but that you're even considering Malta top 10???? I'd be amazed if it limps into the final...but it will beat Ireland!!
It's because Malta came first in a casual voters' poll on Lukeovision (beating Sweden, Finland and everyone). Malta has serious casual voter appeal.
lol im not really considering them, i was saying if i had to pick someone from the bottom list, thats who id choose. they werent many other good options 😅
and yes, i did also note they won Luke's public poll 😊
Odds are shit, at this moment.
Yea at this part of the season, It feels like you need to grab the good odds when they are released because after a couple hours/days everything decent will be gone . I don’t think we’ll see motion again until the rehearsals
La Zarra will slay 👑
My £20 is split for France for winner and top3. I might be wrong, but I can see split screen between Sweden and France this year. Another dark element for me is Israel.
Well, hello, Tom! 😏
France has really grown on me! Strangely I know nobody who is really excited about Sweden but everyone is expecting Loreen to win. 😂 Germany… no comment 😊
i remembered them this time though, 😅🇩🇪
@@ESCTom You did! ❤
Hello Tom, do you think that those who bet on individual countries also take into account the diaspora, based on which a country could even qualify for the final, for example? Sorry if it's a bit of a silly question. Thank you for the replay.
yea i think its an important thing to consider for qualfying for the final definitely. for example, We've seen in the past that former yugoslav countries have benefited a lot from their close cultural connections, although this year that is diminished with 2 of them withdrawing and Bosnia still out of the competition.
I think it has little to no effect on the winner odds though
@@ESCTomHow do you think this will then affect Slovenia? Although they have a good song, their diaspora in semi2 is very weak, could the inclusion of Spain, Ukraine, UK still shuffle the cards? (If I'm not mistaken, the rest of the world also votes in the semifinals, right?)
honestly i think the song is strong enough that itll go through. but yea theyve got albania, althought that wasnt former Yugoslav. the UK will like this type of music too i think.
Yes ROW is voting in both semis
My comments are disappearing again. 😐 Second try: Greece did a gig in a small café the other day. He was clearly nervous. If he is nervous performing in a small café, how will he handle a big stage? I wouldn't put money on him. That nervousness will come through even more on a big stage. I had him as a qualifier but if he performs like in that tiny venue, he's an NQ.
yea i actually saw your original comment earlier but hadnt replied to it yet, so i dont know why youtube deleted it. Another commenter here, John, had this issue last year where literally 90% of his comments were getting deleted. I ended up contacting RUclips support about it but they were useless. Unfortunately comments are super low priority for youtube, theyve even talked about removing them as a feature. So they can be quite buggy. My advice is copy a long comment before you post it and don't put a link in. Other than that, John and I couldnt find the pattern in the actual message sent so we put it down to a phone connection or cache problem.
anyway in regards to Greece, yea thats not good news for him. honestly i think 16 is too young. its fine if it all goes well, but if it doesnt work, that's a messed up thing for a 16 year old to process when theyre still developing. i hope he can perform well but i think its normal for someone so inexperienced to be so nervous
btw his posting problem has gone now, he hasnt had it once this year yet
@@ESCTom Yeah, copying a comment is definitely the way to go. They can randomly disappear. RUclips support is usually useless. Yes for Victor I think 16 is too young. You really need to be an experienced performer for the Eurovision stage. Victor looked like he had never performed in front of any crowds before.
@@ESCTom OK good, maybe there are weird comment-removing bugs going around and he got rid of his.
I kind of think Iceland in the semi final odds is a big steal. I can’t see someone with that kind of vocal ability and stage presence not qualifying in a semi that’s this weak. Really want to bet on Latvia to qualify but I’m always so conservative with my money and I’m terrified how a televote will react to them. One thing I’m really shocked about is the qualifying chance that’s being given to Switzerland- to me that song is a qualifier in a normal year but I don’t think there’s any chance it qualifies in a televote only semi. Just seems like such the typical song that would have been pushed through by a jury
yea i see what you mean about SWI. but ballads do make it through and theyre on a 3 QF streak and hes got an incredible live voice.
Estonia is one of my favorites, but unfortunately I don’t think they are going to qualify. First, it’s a ballad which I don’t know if the audience will vote to. Second, they are 4th in the running order, which is a very bad place☹️
I think Estonia will qualify. Semi 2 is the weaker semi so it will be easier to qualify from it. There are very few ballads this year which means that people who like ballads will have fewer songs to choose from = they will vote for Estonia.
@@nian60 I agree with you, but I have multiple thoughts at the same time, so I don’t know what to think anymore😅. It’s really hard to predict who will qualify from the second semi-final. There are about 8 songs that are on the edge of qualification in this semi, so I really want to see what’s going to happen
I dont get why Ucraine is so high seeing the general vibe on RUclips it doesn't seem to be such a popular song, unless the bookmakers are confident that there will be a big'sympathy vote' but I think this year it won't be so big.
yes thats basically it. i think the majority of that money was placed at the start of the season too
Iceland to qualify 7/4 💰
You're welcome
yea thats a decent return or a QF
I'd be absolutely throwing ht kitchen sink at the Austria for top 3 tbh.
I wasn't quite convinced about France. Until my BF and one of his closest friends were raving about her (for the record, they are both German, but different demographics). So I kinda had to re-evaluate my prediction that Sweden would win with a land slide. I think it will be a tight race. Sweden, Norway, France, UK and - surprisingly - Austria are currently the ones I predict to land in the top 5.
Agreed
Its a number of performance ie Israel.. Uk... no idea how will be. So they can be a surprise or a fail
Loreen Tattoo Sweden is the best song this year
Good, keep parroting that and no one will vote for her. 😄
@@nian60 Oh, is that how it works? Finland, Spain, Norway, Ukraine, Austria, Israel, Czechia, UK and France are the best songs this year. 😉
@@adamtideman4953 No, you have to sound stupid when you say it. Otherwise it doesn't turn people off.