What next for the global economy? Interview with IMF Research Director Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
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- Опубликовано: 15 май 2024
- The International Monetary Fund is forecasting global growth of 3.2 percent in 2024 and 2025, citing a ‘surprisingly resilient’ performance. Supply chain stability, strong labor markets and high productivity have all driven the post-pandemic recovery. DW Washington Bureau Chief Ines Pohl speaks to IMF Research Director Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas about the differing trends around the world and how geopolitical tensions could disrupt the economy.
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#imf #economy #growth
When I was studying economics a teacher told me that half of the job of an economist was predicting the future, and the other half was explaining why the predictions didn't materialize. That's oh so very true
Marxist economical theory predicts pretty much everything in capitalism tbh
@@myxomat00sis LOL, ya... except its own demise.
@@brand8590 Owned
Could you please discuss inequality growth? Does the IMF has any interest and insights on that? Or they will continue to pretend this is not an economic problem?
I think this is something that the mainstream media never ever cover because their main source of information has always been the big think tanks - age old tradition of getting news. Which is bad. There would need to be a big research organization focused on inequality for the media to take notice.
Yet no one can afford groceries or rent. It’s all a lie.
You aren't everyone. Look around at all the nice houses all over town. Look at all the nice cars on the freeway. Just because you are in bad shape doesn't mean everyone is. I just bought a boat. Different strokes.
@@aaronwells6608 Doesn’t change the fact that it’s effecting everyone, it’s just not effecting you as much so it doesn’t matter as much to you.
@@aaronwells6608that’s called debt here in the USA and there’s enough to go around. Times are tough bud for so many. No offense
Spin doctor.
In the real world people are struggling hard
Economic growth is steady, financial growth is steady, corporate profits are steadily increasing, inflation is steady... Only salaries are not increasing. Everything is alright 🎉🎉🎉❤
Nailed it.
Sound OK
globally economies could collaps if wars wont stop. Thanks to mr. Biden, the UK, France for his soft, touchy and sincere hard work to encourage wars and help in ending the global economies. Bravo. World is extemely proud of your work. 😂😂😂
The global economy is suffering today. Inflation, increase in Rents, increase in jobless ratios, high gas prices, highest energy prices gives birth too insecurity to Businesses around the Globe. Each and every house is effect today. Besides wars in Ukraine and Gaza did rest of the work. We must give Peace a chance that gives birth to new businesses.
U.S. is losing steam because wages are not rising with productivity and people can't borrow forever. When people are unable to repay loans credit markets collapse along with job markets and speculation markets.
Good
Pollution
These ppl are full of it.
Actually really informative
Congratulations to the IMF´s analyst for its excellent forecasting on global growth for 2024 and 2025 in countries like Unted States, China, Europe, Indy, Vietnam and Mexico!!!
Even next year, keep India's growth rate above 8%.
Not above 8% but around 7% - 7.5%
It's still a gutter
Grow grow grow! It's all that's left.
Growth is the entire point. Always has been, since the dawn of history.
Growth/GDP=Satin’s in the house and doing well.
Growth = inflation and increased inequality
@@kk-xj5oz @kk-xj5oz no. That's not how that works. Take an economics class. Right now in China, for example, they have growth and DEflation. Which is even worse. Educate yourself on this stuff. Things don't just mean what you want them to mean.
@@aaronwells6608 deflation is exactly what we need right now. Not for the market, not for the government, but for the people. By the way China was over 5%, so you should actually pay more attention.
Very informative ❤
So sorry that I have to say that I think this data is kind of skewed and not based on our realities nowadays. Is this news will have some coincidence with a certain Presidential run or politics involved? 😢
Economic growth and the financial reality for most US families haven't been strongly linked for 45 years. But the wealthy and upper middle class are doing quite well.
You are so correct. Just notice how he speaks, without conviction and avoiding eye contact at crucial moments. The man’s lying through his teeth!
IMF would look at trends and stats globally (as was evident from the video). How the developments get distributed inside any individual populations (regions or countries) is a different story.
They also would not focus on individual elections. It's unclear if you referred to any specific elections, like Indonesia and Taiwan recently, or any of the near future ones. Political changes may change the economic policies of individual countries but the impacts come usually with a lag and the global trends often have a large influence on what ends up happening.
Growth not adjusted for inflation is bs
Growth for the super rich, thank you
I am thrilled to hear that Indian growth is not driven by FII but from Indians. At least now Western media can not claim that India is growing because of funds provided by Western countries. Keep your money to you. We are capable enough to grow, and its IMF is saying.
😂
Yeah sure..
India is leading the global growth story.
Hidden love affairs between Eu. And Russia 😢😢😢
Yeke ko ni sembang
What labor force?? You can’t find a job in this market….
no introduction or anything.. lmao.. what is with people these days?
I’m not very good at maths, someone please help me understand how ~4.5% is weak economic growth and ~2% is strong economic growth.
Literally look at more than one single piece of data. If you go 10%, 10%, 10%, 10%, and then suddenly 5% would you call that negative or positive? I see this question on nearly every economic video, especially if it includes China, and I'm tired of people asking questions on social media instead of a search engine or encyclopedia.
@@CausticLemons7 your logic doesn’t work when you’re only discussing 2024 growth rate, and discussing several country’s numbers. Americans love to twist the facts to make themselves look better.
@@Asimmehra Exactly! If you "only discuss one year" than it doesn't make sense, which is exactly why I explained it as a discussion of trends. If you can't understand why 10% down to 5% is considered negative even though most competitors are below 5%, then you need to watch grade school videos to catch up to this discussion. Two ears and one mouth, so listen twice as much as you speak.
@@CausticLemons7 so you’re saying that china’s economy has been doing way better than America’s for the past 3-4 decades, but they’ve slowed down from their double digit growth rates, and still growing at 2x of the US economy?
@@Asimmehra Yes. Except of course China was being compared to China not the US, but otherwise your statement is accurate.
It seems that WHAT the IMF measures is insufficient. The two most obvious examples are the figures for Russia and China. Consider Russia:
#1) While Russia has increased oil sales to India, China and Turkiye, Russia's total oil exports have allegedly dropped.
#2) Sanctions have reduced the per barrel price of their oil. Given #1 and #2, foreign revenue from oil sales should be substantially less than pre-war levels.
#3) The LNG component of Russian petroleum exports has dramatically dropped.
#4) Petroleum sales represented over 50% of Russia's total foreign revenue. The above suggests their largest foreign revenue source has diminished .
#5) Over 1,000 major corporations left Russia since the war's start, including major corporations which support Russian infrastructure (e.g. oil drilling & Refining).
#6) Given all the above, Russia's foreign revenue is well below pre-war levels. So, a GDP increase must solely be from internal growth (primarily, war production)
#7) Sanctions increase the cost to sustain machinery (oil drilling and refining, industrial tools) and aircraft (e.g. seized (stolen) leased commercial aircraft).
#8) Russia's pre-war demographics were already poor. The average age was 40, the birthrate was 1.5 (one of the world's lowest), and their population was shrinking.
#9) Estimates suggest that the war cost Russia 1%+ of their younger, able bodied male population: ~1M fled Russia (in two waves), ~300k killed, ~600+k disabled.
#10) Adding together #8 and #9, Russia's able bodied workforce took a step change downwards of over 1% in addition to an already declining workforce.
#11) Some estimates indicate that 40+% of Russia's GDP is directed towards the Ukraine war, away from infrastructure (health, education, welfare, roads, etc.)
#12) Barring a failure of will, EU + NATO member GDP and production capacity DWARFS Russia's (20X +). The longer the war, the longer it will bleed Russia dry.
#13) Source data from Russia is suspect. Much of the data is either concealed or 'cooked' in order to mask the war's real effects.
Given all the above, the IMF anticipation of Russia's GDP growing by ~3% seems to be either false, or so narrowly focussed as to be largely irrelevant.
Something is missing in the IMF analysis. I do not see a mechanism that permits a 'REAL' 3% growth. But if that is the IMF position, then I expect at some point the IMF will 'discover' a Russian crash (in colloquial technospeak - a 'correction').
I feel sorry for the Russians who were unwillingly duped into Putin's war. His choice has singlehandedly crippled Russia's long term prospects.
I often have similar question in mind. How much effort does the sanction impact Russia? don't see any comparison, result, and its helps from evil allies china and N. Korea Kim. maybe I missed it.
Like to know the impact of Russia's economy after sanction, seems no impact. Putin still elected, Russians still like a kxller?
strong lie that you tell us...
The GDP of India's consulting services industry accounts for 11% (customer service). This is a serious hidden danger. In China, the consulting service industry has been largely replaced by artificial intelligence, with a very low GDP of less than 0.01%. China also has problems. The real estate industry in China will account for 5.8% in 2023, which is very dangerous. China must restrict real estate development, lower housing prices, and compress the proportion of real estate GDP to within 4%. Real estate GDP is a poison. The problem in the United States is that lawyer fees account for 3% of GDP. Why can lawyer fees be counted as GDP? This is even crazier than India's service industry and China's real estate.
China has the highest homeownership rate among people born between 1980 and 1995, at 70%. Currently, more than 85% of the country's population lives in their own homes.
This guy either does not understand the economy or he's just lying 😂. I'm guessing he's lying, considering what the role of imf is.
Dumb