Survivorship bias or Survival bias

Survivorship bias is a cognitive bias that occurs when people focus on the individuals or things that "survived" a process or event, overlooking those that did not. This bias often leads to an overly optimistic view of success or an inaccurate assessment of the factors that contribute to it. Survivorship bias can be found in various contexts, including business, investing, education, and historical analysis. Here's a more detailed explanation:
Business and Investing:
In business and investing, survivorship bias may occur when analyzing successful companies, entrepreneurs, or investment strategies. If you only study the success stories and ignore the failures, you might draw inaccurate conclusions about the key factors for success. For example, if you only analyze successful startups, you might overlook the challenges and common pitfalls that many failed startups experienced.
Historical Analysis:
In historical analysis, survivorship bias can affect the interpretation of data. For instance, if you only consider the writings, artworks, or artifacts that have survived over time, you may get a distorted view of the past. Neglected or destroyed works are not represented, leading to an incomplete understanding of a particular era or culture.
Military and Aviation:
Survivorship bias has been studied in the context of military and aviation as well. During World War II, analysts examined returning aircraft to determine where they were most likely to be hit. However, they were only looking at the planes that made it back. Statistician Abraham Wald pointed out that the analysis should focus on the areas where the surviving planes were not hit since those were likely the vulnerable areas that caused other planes to be lost.
Overcoming Survivorship Bias:
Consider the Full Picture: When analyzing data or drawing conclusions, consider both the successes and failures to get a more comprehensive understanding.
Include Non-Survivors: Take into account the individuals, companies, or entities that did not succeed or did not survive the process.
Critical Thinking: Encourage critical thinking and skepticism, especially when success stories are presented without the context of failures.
Learn from Failures: Analyze failures and learn from mistakes to gain insights into what went wrong and how to avoid similar pitfalls.
Broaden the Data Set: When conducting research or making decisions, broaden the data set to include a diverse range of experiences and outcomes.
By being aware of survivorship bias and actively working to mitigate its effects, individuals and organizations can make more informed decisions and avoid drawing misleading conclusions based on a skewed perspective.