Polaris Dawn - Your Very Own Human Space Program
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- Опубликовано: 25 июл 2024
- If you wanted to build your own human space program outside of NASA, what would it look like?
It's already underway, and it's known as Polaris Dawn...
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I do really hope they get the mission plan down and approval from NASA to try to boost the Hubble orbit for Mission II. Would be a hugely popular and exciting mission.
That would truly be a great thing to do. I hope that NASA is actually serious about it.
@@EagerSpace Yes -- I agree. It would be interesting to see an analysis of how much Delta-v Dragon would be able to impart on Hubble.
This is literally like 1:1 of what happens in the show For All Mankind. A rich dude creates a commercial astronaut program and teams up with a huge space launch provider created by another rich dude.
The movie Contact also involve a rich dude stepping in when the government program failed. Seems like the obvious solution for furthering space exploration. :)
At first with Inspiration I didn't get the picture. Once Polaris and the objectives were announced I immediately understood what this is about.
This is obviously SpaceX building technology and gaining knowledge on human spaceflight for their future Mars missions and colonization plans.
Exactly. What surprises me is that so few people seem to realize what they are doing because it's a small program.
@@EagerSpace well there's literally no point in developing the same technology multiple times.
They just need to do the right thing they need once, after that everything will be scaled up once Starship is operational.
For Mission II they really want to repair a satellite, and do some useful work.
Have had the pleasure of meeting the crew of Polaris Dawn during a talk on my college campus, it seems very clear to me that these folks have the long game in mind. Very excited to see how space suits develop for the masses
Jared Isaacman is the perfect guy to do this. He’s humble, articulate, relatable, no-drama, deferential to space pioneers, and super ambitious and assertive but in a non-aggressive way. He’s not ostentatious, unlike Bezos, Branson, or Musk himself.
As soon as Polaris was announced, I said “this guy wants to go all the way to the moon”. I bet you anything he’s already had discussions with SpaceX about being the first civilian to walk on the moon, as soon as it is politically viable. There’s a long gap between Artemis 3 and the next surface mission (I think Artemis 4 only goes to gateway) which seems like a good opportunity. NASA will have landed their astronauts so they won’t be publicly humiliated (too much), and the long gap will make for a plausible excuse/cover for others to step in.
Artemis 4 is landing, and SpaceX will be providing the improved Block 2 HLS for it. But after that, Blue Origin take the reins for Artemis 5.
Given SLS and Orion launch cadence, this means that SpaceX will probably have a shiny new fully reusable HLS just floating around not landing on the moon for ~2 years.
That seems rather wasteful to me. If only there was some way they could make better use of it in the meantime...
I do believe SpaceX will be careful about embarrassing NASA like you say - but of course they can’t delay their own plans too much. A private mission to the Moon will of course mean the crew will fly to NRHO on a Starship. This could possibly happen before Artemis 4 and likely after it. This will be a relief to the taxpayers, it’ll prove to the public SLS-Orion can be shut down in so clear a way that special interests in Congress will have to fold their cards.
The best teams in the world require different personalities to do amazing things. I don't like what Elon post publicly, but I have zero doubts that we wouldn't have SpaceX without someone as unreasonably hard headed as him. On the other end of the spectrum are people like Shotwell and Isaacman leveraging the momentum to achieve great goals.
Just discovered this channel.... fantastic stuff!
I'm crossing my fingers someone will also start a private unmanned space exploration program. Maybe the Polaris Hubble boost or the Rocket Lab Venus probe could be the start of something, but I feel it doesn't has the same appeal human spaceflight has to most people.
Rocket Lab has Venus aspirations and SpaceX obviously has Mars aspirations but as businesses they will tend to focus on that side of things.
Having just had possibly the best day ever, I then find out that there's a new Eager Space video.... absolute perfection! ❤
Thanks, I appreciate it.
Hmm...Looking at your video, I see 'Dragon' is like a meld of Gemini and Apollo in shape.
Another awesome video by Eager Space!
Thanks
I feel like Polaris 2 involving haven space station would be badass
Polaris is a pretty cool program, I think it'll feel serious after Polaris Dawn concludes.
Do you think SpaceX will keep the Polaris moniker after Polaris III for their own private Astronaut Corps? Because having the last mission be on Starship looks like that's the point where they're comfortable rating it for everything from Dear Moon to Mars missions, and are transferring into their Apollo.
I also wonder if there will be at least 1 more mission between II and III, since making the jump from Dragon to Starship may have more of a gap than they expect. Like partnering with Vast to do a mission on Haven-1, or doing a rendezvous mission with Dragon and Starship, to test life support systems and such without having to launch or land on Starship. A checkout mission.
I'm pretty sure the Polaris moniker belongs to Isaacman, not to SpaceX. And I think SpaceX would be fine outsourcing the training of astronauts to somebody else; it's not an area where they have particular aptitude.
Mission II is a placeholder that says "we think we'll need at least another dragon mission before starship". That could easily expand to more missions if Starship is late or if they just decide they need more experience. There's been talk that SpaceX might reboost Hubble to a higher orbit; that could easily be a mission 2.5.
The rocket in your thumbnails reminds me of Israel's Shavit lol. Great video
I do indeed wish to use the _correct_ NASA pronunciation of Gemini
Love your content!
Thanks.
i love that
and then there is dear moon
i did enjoy the video
Ha i got the first view! Love this channel ❤
Speaking about space walks, Is it possible to use monopropellant (for example H2O2) for Astronaut propulsion unit? Has anyone tried to do this?
And are there other ways to improve old APU?
NASA developed the manned maneuvering unit and then abandoned it when they found that they didn't need it. It used gaseous nitrogen.
H202 would give you a lot more capability, but high purity hydrogen peroxide is nasty stuff and something you'd prefer not to have inside your living space because of the potential for leaks.
The parallel with the Gemini program was exciting. But I’m not clear about what purpose your predicted JI’s business would serve. Who are the customers? Who are the competitors? NASA candidates invest two years of work to qualify for flight assignments. Is your proposition that Starship astronauts will need only a fraction of that time? I wonder if the future of Polaris is to provide JI and colleagues a place on the advancing frontier of spaceflight.
I don't think there's much business case or a customer base at the moment, it's just SpaceX learning how to perform human spaceflight missions on their own, with minimal/no NASA oversight. I'm also fairly certain that it's all owned and operated by SpaceX, but partially/wholly paid for by Isaacman.
I think their only real competitors are Axiom, who are also doing private missions to the ISS, and Vast Space, who are planning missions starting next year, but they're both closely partnered with SpaceX to use Dragon.
I suppose in the future, SpaceX and Isaacman could lead the charge in training private astronauts (since they're putting in more of an effort to give thorough training compared to Axiom), that then either fly on SpaceX's own missions, or get contracted by Axiom, Vast, and others. "So you want to buy an Astronaut"
If there are going to be people living and working in space outside of NASA, they will need to be trained. I don't think anybody knows what the right amount of training is and it will obviously depend on the role that the person is playing. During shuttle, international payload specialists had a couple of hundred hours of training over four or five weeks, so that is probably the bare minimum that would suffice. Axiom trains for 15 weeks.
NASA knows that their program works to produce astronauts with the skills that they want. They have plenty of applicants and 48 astronauts in the program. Trying to streamline the training isn't one of their goals.
I'll also note that people can get their private pilot's license in 3-4 months. That seems like a comparable amount of study for somebody going into space.
Isaacman definitely wants to be involved in space going forward, both on a personal and business level.
@@EagerSpace I wonder what kind of background the international mission specialists have before they start their training with NASA for a flight. Probably a lot of technical ops experience and possibly piloting high performance jets. The Axiom crews come in with none of this, ergo the longer training. The Inspiration4 crew had no technical ops experience. "Hanks" had aerospace electronics knowledge and "Leo" apparenlty took flying lessons for a private pilot's license but idk if she ever got it - IIRC this was not highlighted in the story. "Nova" had zero applicable experience. You need to remember a lot of technical details to be a PA but flight ops is different. I'll bet that was a pretty long training program.
In contrast, Gillis and Menon of Polaris Dawn have deep experience in SpaceX operations and Dragon missions ops. Gillis actually trained NASA astronauts and the Insp4 crew so her training should go smoothly, lol. Poteet has an impressive resume in flying high performance jets, even in combat and on the Thunderbirds, so his ability to operated in a high-tech, high-stress environment is unquestioned. How many hours are they training? I think more than was planned in order to keep them occupied while waiting for the EVA suit to be developed. Plus they've had to train for the spacewalk in NASA's neutral buoyancy tank. (I wonder what SpaceX bartered for that.)
I just had a thorough search of my art collection. I am distraught to announce that the painting you seek is unavailable. Instead, I will be forced to dislike and unsubscribe….
Sad face...
Hello guys. Not sure that this is entirely relevant to the video, but i wanted to get people's options on spaceX/Musk. Now, What i want to know is why NASA is willing to work with spaceX given their more relaxed attitudes toward manufacturing timelines and safety.
Ive been watching a lot of videos criticizing spaceX for their inability to manufacturing rockets that work the first time around.
It seems that they're willing to blow up rockets in the design process, leading to longer development times and safety concerns for ground crew.
Why is NASA willing to partner with SpaceX given such a difference in culture?
Also it seems like Musk usnt the right person ro be running spaceX given his personality.
Im just torn, because they seem to be doing really good work, but Musk worries me.
I have a video on this topic:
ruclips.net/video/hPN4VzTkg1Y/видео.html
SpaceX built a rocket that worked first time with Falcon 9 and - with the exception of two issues they found later - it's been pretty much flawless. But that's because it's a relatively conventional rocket.
With starship - and with Falcon 9 landing - SpaceX was figuring out how to do something that had never been done before, so they are trying a bunch of things out to figure out what works and what doesn't. There's really no good alternative - if it's something nobody has done before you inherently need to do tests to figure out whether your solutions are practical or not. SpaceX prefers to do those tests as full scale tests, in what is often known as "hardware rich development". It's *far* faster than trying to do a bunch of analysis up front. As a comparison, look at how long it has taken NASA to build SLS and that rocket is pretty much just a collection of old shuttle parts. The last launch of Starship was successful from conventional rocket terms - it took off, staged successfully, and the upper stage got into space. It's the new and difficult things that are the blockers now.
NASA is willing to work with SpaceX because they understand how development works. With one exception - CRS-7 IIRC - the commercial resupply and commercial crew work that SpaceX has done for NASA has been pretty much flawless.
So ignore those other videos - those people don't know what they are talking about, they are just being sensationalistic because that is what gets view on RUclips. They're the same sort of people who said that SpaceX would never land a first stage booster, something that has now become so commonplace it's boring.
I think that the media really exaggerate the safety aspects of how SpaceX operates. In general, ALL space programs have failed rockets, engines, and test flights. The difference is that the failures are covered up for others while SpaceX proudly live stream their failures. Take Astra for example, they had 9 test flights, 7 failed. Who were criticizing their leadership? No one, because that's how it's supposed to work.
All test flights in the USA are still governed by FAA's guidelines, and nobody is allowed to test anything if FAA deemed the effort as dangerous, and failures require a report on how the problem will be rectified until a new test can be approved. Reporters that assume this didn't happen are either completely incompetent, or have an agenda and purposefully ignoring facts.
Lastly, engineers and organizations focus on data. The safety and success rate of their Falcon 9 Block 5 workhorse is amongst the best in class while achieving what people consider as impossible - recovery landing. That alone speaks for the company's capabilities and its leadership, not headlines form mainstream media or non-qualified RUclipsrs. Stick to EagerSpace, Scott Manly, Everyday Astronaut, and NSF for high quality space coverage.
Oh, lastly, check out the book Lift Off from Eric Berger. Great insights into how SpaceX and Elon operates.
SpaceX's basic philosophy seems to be risk equipment, not people. They test so they know the actual limits of their systems, and then once they bring people into the loop they ensure everything stays within those limits.
Check out Starliner and their attitudes toward timelines, testing and safety.